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Didn't really expect to run the table, did you?

Which reminds me - there is exactly one unbeaten team left in the 2016 post-season.



Josh Tomlin takes the ball for the Clevelands this afternoon, and it's hard for anyone who remembers the Blue Jays' Josh T not to see the paralells - a RH pitcher with a very modest fastball, who over the years has mostly made people say "how the hell is this guy even in the major leagues?" His number one weapon - forget about surprise, ruthless efficiency, and all those other things - is a fanatical devotion to throwing strike one. His commitment to throwing his modest stuff over home plate has left him extremely vulnerable to the home run. But it also means he is ahead of the hitter all day, which results in almost no bases in balls and a host of very quick at bats. In 687.1 career IP, Tomlin has issued 107 walks while allowing 119 HRs. That's an unusual thing to see, and that's like the original Josh T as well - in his 731.1 career IP, Towers allowed 123 BB and 122 HRs. Yup - Josh Tomlin is more Towers-esque than the original.

What I'm saying is - don't try to work the count against this guy, or you'll be swinging 0-2 all day long.

Roster update: Devon Travis to the DL (guess today's MRI did not provide any good news), which means he'll also miss the World Serious, should the Jays get there. Justin Smoak added to the active roster.

I need to get some rest before the game starts and I need to stop thinking about baseball for a few hours. But I want to share something written by Ian Frazier in a book called "Great Plains."  I've loved this piece of writing, with all my heart, since the first time I read it, almost thirty years ago. It's about one of the most compelling, fascinating men in American history, the warrior Tashunke Witco ("His Horse is Crazy.")

Personally, I love Crazy Horse because even the most basic outline of his life shows how great he was; because he remained himself from the moment of his birth to the moment he died; because he knew exactly where he wanted to live, and never left; because he may have surrendered, but he was never defeated in battle; because, although he was killed, even the Army admitted he was never captured; because he was so free that he didn't know what a jail looked like; because at the most desperate moment of his life he only cut Little Big Man on the hand; because, unlike many people all over the world, when he met white men he was not diminished by the encounter; because his dislike of the oncoming civilization was prophetic; because the idea of becoming a farmer apparently never crossed his mind; because he didn't end up in the Dry Tortugas; because he never met the President; because he never rode on a train, slept in a boardinghouse, ate at a table; because he never wore a medal or a top hat or any other thing that white men gave him; because he made sure that his wife was safe before going to where he expected to die; because although Indian agents, among themselves, sometimes referred to Red Cloud as "red" and Spotted Tail as "spot," they never used a diminutive for him; because, deprived of freedom, power, occupation, culture, trapped in a situation where bravery was invisible, he was still brave; because he fought in self-defense, and took no one with him when he died; because, like the rings of Saturn, the carbon atom, and the underwater reef, he belonged to a category of phenomena which our technology had not then advanced far enough to photograph; because no photograph or painting or even sketch of him exists; because he is not the Indian on the nickel, the tobacco pouch, or the apple crate. Crazy Horse was a slim man of medium height with brown hair hanging below his waist and a scar above his lip. Now, in the mind of each person who imagines him, he looks different.

I believe that when Crazy Horse was killed something more than a man’s life was snuffed out. Once, America’s size in the imagination was limitless. After Europeans settled and changed it, working from the coasts inland, its size in the imagination shrank. Like the center of a dying fire, the Great Plains held that original vision longest. Just as people finally came to the Great Plains and changed them, so they came to where Crazy Horse lived and killed him. Crazy Horse had the misfortune to live in a place that existed both in reality and in the dreams of people far away; he managed to leave both the real and the imaginary place unbetrayed. What I return to most often when I think of Crazy Horse is the fact that in the adjutant’s office he refused to lie on the cot. Mortally wounded, frothing at the mouth, grinding his teeth in pain, he chose the floor instead. What a distance there is between the cot and the floor! On the cot, he would have been, in some sense, “ours”: an object of pity, an accident victim, “the noble red man, the last of his race.” But on the floor Crazy Horse was Crazy Horse still. On the floor, he began to hurt as the morphine wore off. On the floor, he remembered Agent Lee, summoned him, forgave him. On the floor, unable to rise, he was guarded by solders even then. On the floor, he said goodbye to his father and Touch the Clouds, the last of the thousands who once followed him. And on the floor, still as far from white men as the limitless continent they once dreamed of, he died. Touch the Clouds pulled the blanket over his face: “That is the lodge of Crazy Horse.” Lying where he chose, Crazy Horse showed the rest of us where we are standing. With his body he demonstrated that the floor of an Army office was part of the land, and that the land was still his.
ALCS Game 2: The Return of Josh T | 72 comments | Create New Account
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BlueJayWay - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#334004) #
Travis out for the rest of the postseason. Replaced by Smoak in this series.

Mylegacy - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#334005) #
Magpie - that was beautiful. Have you read "Bury my Heart at Wounded Knee"?

I always remember a quote from that book: "The white man made us many promises, but he only kept one. He promised to take our land - and he did."

In the scope of the history of time/space, of the Universe, and the Universes before us and those yet to come - our Blue Jays coming from behind and beating Cleveland will make no more than the tiniest spark. But to us it will be remembered like the buffalo and first nations who once roamed the great prairies. The majestic, the free, the proud, the never forgotten.

Time for a wee dram...
Magpie - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#334006) #
I always remember a quote from that book

Of course I remember! I used it for yesterday's thread!

I did read Dee Brown and lots of other things as well. I didn't grow up with many of relatives at all nearby, but one of the few was my Aunt Myra from the Saulteaux branch of the Ojibwe (she married my dad's older brother). And my father spent years in Winnipeg working at a halfway house for natives, most of whom were on a kind of endless loop between white society and the penal system. Heard many, many stories growing up. Many of them just wildly funny, by the way.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#334007) #
Very cool. As a kid, growing up in Germany, I read Karl May's stories with great interest. As a 6-10 year old boy, I would lie for hours on the bed/couch reading 400+ page books - while my aunt asked my mom how to get her kids to read ANYTHING. They were historical fiction about the "Wild West" and "Cowboys and Indians". I was hooked. After moving to Canada and now the US, it's been fascinating to see much of the described geography, look at maps where certain forts were, etc. I love old maps.

Of course, as I've grown older, some of the shine has worn off: I found out the author himself only made it to the US once or twice, and then, only the east coast - but he WAS good at learning from others and re-telling it.. And of course, there are inaccuracies even with claimed "facts", as I realized more and more over time, and he had certain biases, which were obvious even to a kid. He also edited and re-edited his work over and over to align it more with what I think is called the "noble savage" philosophy he adhered to in his later years, etc. Coming upon earlier editions many years later and realizing that the books I read had significant differences has also tarnished the memories some. And, in the grand scheme of things, they probably aren't as good/authentic/gripping as other books in the same genre, but as a kid, they were amazing.. As a boy, the sense of the wide open spaces, the idea that you can ride for days and not see another person, that you may be where no one has stood in years, etc.. That sense of wonder is still there a bit.
Magpie - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#334008) #
Well, an obvious difference between Tomlin and Towers - Tomlin gets all those strikes and 0-1 counts with breaking balls. He knows that hitters will usually watch a breaking ball go by, especially on the first pitch.
sam - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#334009) #
Ugh, Jose Bautista.
Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#334010) #
Bautista's post-season line is approaching his career regular-season line at warp speed.  When he tries to do too much, he achieves less. 
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#334011) #
Not a fan of pitching to Lindor there.
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#334012) #
Apparently, Tomlin's curve is unhittable.
SK in NJ - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#334013) #
This is September's offense. Looks very familiar. Not a good sign. The Jays rotation is not going to be able to save them if they can't hit the likes of Tomlin, especially with Miller likely coming in shortly.
Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#334014) #
Miller did not need help, but he got it again from the umpire (who has been excellent prior). 
Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#334015) #
Barney and a bunt, please.
John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#334016) #
What the heck is this guy doing pitching today? 31 pitches yesterday should've made Miller unavailable today. Over 20 today. So between the two days he has 1/2 a start worth of pitches. Cleveland's pitchers have learned the ump will give them that extra inch on the outside line too.
Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#334017) #
It's a high-leverage situation, so I can see what they are doing.  The ethics are another question-  Miller's risk of arm injury is significantly higher because of this kind of usage.
SK in NJ - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#334018) #
As bad as Diaz was last night, he wasn't the reason the Jays lost, and the umpiring today isn't the reason they haven't scored much either. The Indians have outplayed them, and the Jays offense is back to September mode. They seem to be taking everything until it's two strikes and then swing at junk. That's not the umpire's fault. The Texas series might have been a blip, and not a sign of a hot streak after all. Losing to Kluber I could stomach, and but giving up 2 runs and losing to Tomlin is harder to take.
John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#334019) #
Agreed SK in NJ. The ump isn't helping, but the Jay hitters are killing themselves. Yesterday they had the starter on the ropes and kept letting him off the hook, today they keep falling behind and doing little.

Funny how it is similar to the regular season. The Jays lost vs Cleveland in close games (1-4, 1-2, 2-3, 2-3), but when they won they won big time (17-1, 9-6, 6-5) with one exception.

All we can hope is the Jays come back big time in Toronto with a few wild games and need just one win in Cleveland to move on to the World Series. Fingers crossed.
King Ryan - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#334020) #
Kind of weird that they used Miller on the bottom of the order and now have to use someone else to face the heart.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#334021) #
Pretty bad.
John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#334022) #
Well, the ump helped expand the strike zone there. Wonder if Bautista would've swung at that pitch if the ump wasn't calling those outside pitches against Toronto? After Edwin K'd I know I'd be swinging if I was a Jay. The announcers suck though as they don't seem to notice even with the grid showing pitches outside the strike zone being called strikes. None-the-less, Bautista had his pitch and fouled it back which if he was hot would've been in the outfield bleachers.

Sigh. 2 at least in Toronto to go. Still in better shape than 26 other teams right now. More fun than 1994-2014. C'mon Jays get hot and make it at least as fun as last year.
Gerry - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#334023) #
Again Tomlin pitched away and threw few fastballs. Either the Jays hitters change their approach or they will be finished.

Allen did give Jose a fastball right down the middle in the ninth but Jose missed it.

Mike Green - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#334024) #
One small positive thing.  Gibbons brought in Osuna at the right time, and so he will be ready for the next 3 games. 
BlueJayWay - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#334025) #
Probably have to win all three games at home.
Alex Obal - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#334026) #
Like, if the pitcher sneaks a fastball by you inside, that actually counts as two strikes and you are subjected to Crossing the Desert and the Unblinking Eye postgame in the locker room?
Gerry - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#334027) #
Cleveland have hit two home runs, the Jays two doubles. That is the difference in the series.
Kasi - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#334028) #
This offense is bad. Pitching is keeping them in it but it's rough to lose games when your staff pitches so well. Oh well just the story of this season.
scottt - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#334029) #
It's not like the Jays didn't try to hit home runs.

On a positive note, the starting pitching should still be great next year.
eudaimon - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#334030) #
The pitching might benefit more from having multiple days off than the hitters. Both offenses seem to be struggling a bit after the break, Cleveland's has just struggled slightly less.

I still like our odds. The Jays seem to play better when their backs are against the wall, and we've certainly got a good look at Cleveland's two best bullpen arms.

Would've been nice to get a guy like Miller though. He's more dominant than any of our BP arms, including Osuna.
electric carrot - Saturday, October 15 2016 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#334031) #
This offense really misses Travis who seems to be good at hitting good pitching and his short compact swing I think would work well in this series.

That said, these games were all close and could have gone either way. Their defense has played great too which has been a factor in us not scoring.  Also, our pitching has been fantastic. JD has been great too. 

We just need a few hitters to step up.  Bautista? Pillar? Zeke? Eddy? Tulo? Saunders? Whose it going to be?




Chuck - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 07:28 AM EDT (#334032) #
It's not like the Jays didn't try to hit home runs.

That's what we'll call an understatement. That's all they tried to do, on every pitch in every count. "Here comes Tomlin's 14th straight 75 MPH curveball. Let's swing at it like a 95 MPH fastball and try to hit it 600 feet. If we keep doing this, we're sure to have success."

rpriske - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#334033) #
This is ALL on the hitters.

The pitching has been great. You only give uo 2 runs game you expect to be up 2-0.
scottt - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#334034) #
The September offense was mostly Donaldson  going a week without a hit.
He's hitting around .500 right now.

I'm worried every AL manager watching this will try the "everything outside and no fastball in the strike zone" approach against the Jays next year. If you remember, the approach used by Texas was to let every ace pitcher throw to his own strength.

Mike Green - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#334035) #
I wouldn't paint all the hitters with the same brush in terms of approach.  Saunders has tried to go the other way a couple of times. Encarnacion has been fine (as usual).  Tulowitzki has had a decent approach. 

With Ramirez playing so far in (memories of Rose/Rivers), I wish Carrera would try to slap the ball by him down the line.  Pillar has looked lost although I don't think that he is trying to do too much.  Martin and Bautista (especially) have been over-swinging.

Bauer has been throwing many more curveballs this year than previously.  I'd expect that the Blue Jays would see a lot of them, providing his finger injury doesn't affect his grip.  It looks like the finger injury might affect his changeup more than his curveball if he is using the same grips that he was last year. 

Parker - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#334036) #
When you score one run in 18 innings, it doesn't really matter whether the pitching is good or bad.
China fan - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#334037) #
"....This offense is bad....  Oh well just the story of this season...."

The Jays offense is not "bad."  It's true that the pitching has been better than the hitting, but you don't get to the league finals with a "bad" offense.  The hitting has been poor for a few limited stretches of the season, including many of the games in September, and the last two games of the playoffs.  That can happen.  The offense can return just as easily.  The Jays have hit very well against some excellent pitchers in October, and they can do it again.

The absence of Travis is probably an under-estimated factor.  But they hit well in earlier games when Travis wasn't able to contribute, and they can do it again.

It's also true that I'd like to see the Jays make some moves in the off-season to bolster the hitting.  But even with the existing roster, this has been a very successful team and can be so again.
Kasi - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#334038) #
Well I'm much more pessimistic about the future outlook of these hitters, something that many writers have echoed. The team is old, slow and our only good young hitter is injury prone. I just don't see a lot of upside for this current group going forward, especially given their cost. I'm not sure what moves can be done in the offseason to bolster the hitting without dealing away more prospects. The free agent crop isn't great. Even just resigning the free agents we have is not going to be good enough. I hope they can get hot again, but it's been a very disappointing start to this series. Will be interesting to see what is done this offseason in regard to doubling down on the current group of players.

And yeah it's not bad, it's just inconsistent while still being above average, just frustrating to waste good starts like they have. Certainly injuries are not helping with Travis and Martin for sure. I wouldn't surprise me if other players were nursing injuries too.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#334039) #
I see Mike Hazen is leaving the GM post in Boston for the GM post in Arizona. Not the usual aI wonder if it's a jump or push. Hard to believe it's the latter when Dombrowski just installed him a year ago. I would like it if we could pick off Amiel Sawdaye.
John Northey - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#334040) #
Always a good sign when our top opponents lose a key member of their front office. Odds are more will go with him as it isn't an AA situation where he left because he didn't want the job but left for a similar job elsewhere.

Lets hope the Red Sox lose a batch of coaches and front office people this winter - can only help the Jays if Boston gets weaker in any way.
Jimbag - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#334041) #
FWIW - I donated money to the Crazy Horse memorial a few years ago, would like to see it completed in my lifetime! But, being 0-2 with the Native American themed threads, perhaps Magpie would like to go another route for game 3...Columbus, maybe?
Magpie - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#334042) #
perhaps Magpie would like to go another route for game 3...

After two straight losses? It won't be me. The torch has been passed, and we'll see what Eephus comes up with. I'm just happy to have come this far after my miserable regular season!
Magpie - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#334043) #
Hey, good pitching beats good hitting (and vice versa, of course.) Cleveland fans could very easily be lamenting what had happened to their offense, which was a powerhouse in their own yard all season long and then gets held to 4 runs in two games. Three players - Lindor, Chisenhall, and Santana - have hits. Everybody else is 0-for the series.

But Kluber's a Cy Young winner and Tomlin's been pitching like one since the first of September (4-1, 1.93). Everyone around Cleveland says Tomlin's never in his life had as good a curveball as he did on Saturday. He was throwing it for strikes, usually strike one, and he wasn't hanging any of them. All a hitter can do - which is what the Toronto batters were doing for the most part - is let it go by. You can't hit the damn thing. And now you're behind in the count, and you don't get to be so selective.
uglyone - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#334044) #
that was some painful painful baseball.

ah well we should still win this but it sucks to have lost all our margin for error already.
Jimbag - Sunday, October 16 2016 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#334045) #
I'm not too far down on what happened in the first two. The way the games played out was kind of opposite of what I had predicted (aside from Miller's performance), with more hits off of Kluber than Tomlin (whose pitching to contact made it likelier to have a few fall somewhere lonely)...the only frustrating thing was that both games were very winnable. But c'est la guerre.

On the plus side, the Jays batters have had plenty of looks at Miller, which may not help much but certainly can't hurt. And the Jays pen is still a little mysterious to the Cleveland hitters, they had a bit of a look at Biagini and Osuna, but haven't faced Grilli or Liriano yet in this series (oddly enough, Coco Crisp hits both of them pretty well), or anyone else out of the pen  - so I think that's an advantage to the Jays. They have the better starters going for the next two, for sure, and if Estrada matches up as well against Kluber at the RC as he did at Jacobs (or whatever they call it now), I think the advantage is there for the next three games (given home field advantage and the way the Jays hit at home).

But ultimately they HAVE to win one in Cleveland. And it sure would have taken some pressure off to have done that already.



Dave Till - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 07:12 AM EDT (#334046) #
After watching the first two games of this series, I can easily see how Cleveland blasted past the Red Sox.

The Sox and Jays are similar teams in some ways: their offense is built around being selective at the plate and waiting for a pitch in the hitting zone that they can blast. Unfortunately, the Cleveland pitchers are hitting the corners with good pitches time after time. And Andrew Miller appears to be not only unhittable - that two-strike slider needs to be registered with NATO as a lethal weapon - but also appears to be indestructible.

The Jays will have a chance if/when a Cleveland pitcher stops being perfect. If that doesn't happen, the Jays will lose, and the better team will have won.
Dave Till - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 07:14 AM EDT (#334047) #

His number one weapon - forget about surprise, ruthless efficiency, and all those other things - is a fanatical devotion to throwing strike one.

No one expects the Tomlin Inquisition!

SK in NJ - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#334048) #
The Jays have played five LCS games on the road since last season and have scored 7 runs total in those five games (not surprisingly, they are 0-5). If they want to make the World Series, they will have to win on the road at some point. Bautista seems to be blaming the umpires (what else is new?), but having watched the games, the approach of the hitters has to be adjusted as well. Umpires will generally favorable calls to the home team, especially Laz Diaz. It's not right, but that's baseball (and sports in general). Other than the called strike 3 on Melvin Upton that looked closer to hitting the dirt than the strike zone, it seemed to be typical inconsistent MLB umpiring to me. Not enough to justify scoring 1 run in 2 games. Credit has to go to the Cleveland pitchers.

They have 3 games at RC now. Get it to 2-2 with Estrada/Kluber part II in Game 5 and it's anyone's series. Hopefully some home cooking wakes the bats up. The pitching has held up their end.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#334049) #
Yeah, that called strike 3 to Upton was awful. On the other hand, most of the calls the Jays didn't get in their favor were typical of the oval strike zone - a strike right on the corner gets called a ball, while a pitch thrown at the letters but three inches outside gets called a strike. It looked to me that other than a couple pitches (and umps are only human, after all) Diaz was calling that type of strike zone all game, to both teams.

Bautista and a couple others frustrate me because there's nothing to be gained from showing up the ump over a bad call. The ump certainly is not going to reverse the call, but there's a chance he feels disrespected, as a result, the ump may subconsciously (or even consciously) let that affect how he calls that player's (or even the entire team's) subsequent plate appearances.

I know this isn't a mystery to anyone, and I'm sure the Jays are aware of it themselves. In the heat of the moment though, I'd really like to see them exercise a little more self-control.

All subjective observations, of course - as it's been pointed out here, the Jays are actually around the league-average when it comes to blown calls against them. Due to confirmation bias, I wouldn't be surprised if fans of every team in the league thinks the umps are out to get his or her team. It just seems to me that a team with the kind of plate discipline the Jays have should be more likely to get calls in their favor, though. I don't know how to pull it off myself, but it would be an interesting study to determine any correlation between plate discipline and likelihood of favorability of "bad" calls.
uglyone - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#334050) #
""The Jays will have a chance if/when a Cleveland pitcher stops being perfect. If that doesn't happen, the Jays will lose, and the better team will have won."

I agree with you about the quality of the pitching, but have to point out that the jays could easily have won both these games.

So even if their pitching remains this good, the jays still have a chance.
Mike Green - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#334051) #
Guy Laurence is out as Rogers CEO and Ted Natale is in, or rather will be in once his non-compete clause expires.  Who knows what that might mean for 2017 payroll.
Sorry for even mentioning it.  Back to Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and a disciplined raucous crowd inspiring a disciplined aggressive offence!
rpriske - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#334052) #
The Jays' pitching has been every but as good as the Cleveland pitching.

The problem is their hitting. Period.

Did Tomlin seem unhittable? Hardly. The Blue Jay batters just did a poor job. Straight up.

Mike Green - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#334053) #
I have been very impressed with Roberto Perez' receiving.  At times, his framing is a bit obvious but otherwise there is a lot to like. 
uglyone - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#334054) #
""Guy Laurence is out as Rogers CEO and Ted Natale is in, or rather will be in once his non-compete clause expires. Who knows what that might mean for 2017 payroll."

For the record, Beeston maintains in private the same thing he says in public - rogers has never, ever said no to a baseball ops payroll ask.
Mike Green - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#334055) #
Whatever.  Remember all that stuff that Anthopoulos said about payroll parameters changing his approach to the free-agent market a couple of off-seasons ago? 

Beeston might very well be telling the literal truth.  At one point, Beeston and Anthopolous have understandings with Rogers senior management about payroll direction in the medium term.  Circumstances change, including new players in senior management.  Rogers senior management conveys new lower payroll parameters to Beeston and no ask is made. 

uglyone - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#334056) #
true.

and there's a big difference between not saying no and flat out encouraging the team to spend. especially if you're trying to impress your bosses by being super clever.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#334057) #
Anthopoulos said all kinds of things. One of the things he said when he first got hired was that he was going to build a sustainable organization. A couple years later he started trading prospect packages for other teams' free-agent signings. Payroll increased like crazy. The Jays didn't win.

Payroll isn't the problem. It never was.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#334058) #
Remember all that stuff that Anthopoulos said about payroll parameters changing his approach to the free-agent market a couple of off-seasons ago?

I remember Anthopoulos saying that there 'were' payroll parameters and I remember that coming as an abrupt shock to a specific and unique portion of the internet where it was apparently believed that other professional sports teams operate without any. I don't recall him saying that these had resulted in a change of his approach to the free-agent market. Rather, and this is borne out in a Davidi article at the time, he had grown tired of what was then constant talk that the Blue Jays were going to sign, or were chasing, every conceivable free agent. The Blue Jays were constantly rumoured that offseason as either the favourite to land, or in on, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, David Ortiz (!), Carlos Beltran, Heath Bell, Kelly Johnson, Erik Bedard etc. Anthopolous made clear that his view hadn't in fact changed, and that successful teams are not built on the free agent market. His comments to that effect are cited in the Davidi piece. It is an internet-perpetuated myth that Anthopolous wanted to sign more free agents but was restrained from doing so. In fact, he stated at the time that he was asked if he didn't want to pursue more, and declined.
China fan - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#334059) #
"..... One of the things he said when he first got hired was that he was going to build a sustainable organization. A couple years later he started trading prospect packages for other teams' free-agent signings. Payroll increased like crazy. The Jays didn't win.  Payroll isn't the problem. It never was....."

So many misleading and false statements within those 6 sentences.  You're rewriting history to create an alternate universe of false mythology.

Let's start with the obvious ones.  "The Jays didn't win."   Yes, they did win.  They've reached the Final Four in the entire major leagues in the past two seasons.

"....he was going to build a sustainable organization...."    Here you imply that Anthopoulos committed himself to building a cheap winner, using only the farm system, while never acquiring anyone with a high salary.  He never said any such thing.  It's so absurd to think that a GM should purely use the draft and the farm system to create a winning team, and that payroll is therefore irrelevant.  If it was so easy to build a winner from purely a batch of prospects and draft picks, every team would be doing it.  No GM in his right mind would make such a promise, and I defy you to find a single quote from AA that committed himself to building a cheap winning team without any high-priced players.

You also imply that a team cannot be "sustainable" if it has any high-priced players on it.  That's a wrong conception of sustainability.  If a GM turns a team into a winning organization, thereby dramatically increasing the box-office revenue, TV revenue, merchandising revenue etc, then of course the organization can afford a higher payroll than before, and of course it can acquire higher-priced players.

"...A couple years later he started trading prospect packages for other teams' free-agent signings...."   Here you imply that this was some breach of a sacred trust.  Nobody gave you a promise that the Jays would never do this.  Many successful teams do it.

"....Payroll increased like crazy...."    In fact, payroll increased in line with the size of the market, the wealth of the ownership, and the growth in revenue.  This is not a spendthrift organization, and it's not an impoverished Tampa Bay organization that has to look for the cheapest possible players.  Considering that the Jays are basically drawing fans from the entire Canadian market of 35 million people (as demonstrated by the Jays fans who show up in Seattle and elsewhere, plus the TV audience), the current Jays payroll is entirely reasonable, and should probably be increased further.  Last time I checked, the Jays payroll was approximately 10th in the majors.  That's not exorbitant, and the increase in the past few years was never irrational or unreasonable.

The whole issue of sustainability is often misunderstood.  A "sustainable" team isn't defined by whether it wins the World Series every season, or even whether it reaches the playoffs every season.  Instead, a "sustainable" team is one that is sufficiently successful on the field, and sufficiently popular in its market, to generate enough revenue to support a strong payroll and a strong organization, including a good network of scouts and coaches and executives so that the organization has good drafts and a good farm system and good international signings.  That's what Anthopoulos and Shapiro have built in the past few years.  Please don't rewrite history to build a mythology of a failing organization with "crazy" spending on an "unsustainable" or "losing" team.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#334060) #
We'll have to wait and see, I suppose.
China fan - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#334061) #
Thank you, CBDC, for citing that article from 2011.  Reviewing it now, it's clear that Anthopoulos did exactly what he planned to do.  Here are the relevant quotes:

Anthopoulos returned to his previously stated positions that he didn’t believe in building teams through free agency, that the time to add was once the team had broken through into the elite and needed bodies to maintain the run, that adding big names in the winter guaranteed nothing in the summer (which is sometimes true, look at the Red Sox and White Sox last year, for instance).
“Paul said two winters ago said, ‘You sure you don’t want (John) Lackey, you sure you don’t want (Jason) Bay?’” Anthopoulos recalled. “I said, ‘I like the players, I don’t like the price. With where we are at as a team it didn’t make sense. They’re good players, I’d love to have them, but they don’t fit right now for us.’”
That logic will do little to settle a fan base angered by his comments Tuesday, a frustration fuelled further by Beeston’s statement that, “We’re still capable of going to the US$120 million payroll once we start drawing the people.”

Anthopoulos did not add the high-priced contracts in 2011 or 2012, when the team wasn't ready for it.  He added the high-priced contracts at two points in the organization's history:  in 2013 and 2015.  In both cases, he thought the team was on the verge of elite status, if it added a few of the right veterans.  He was wrong in 2013, but he was right in 2015.  He didn't build the team through free agency.  He waited until it had enough good talent to build upon.  In 2013, he had Bautista, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Rasmus, Lind, and he thought it was ready for elite status if he added a shortstop and a few good pitchers.  He was wrong.  But in 2015, he had another good core of players, and this time -- when he added the right veterans -- it was enough for the Jays to reach the Final Four for (at least) two consecutive seasons. So his strategy was ultimately successful.  Build a good core, then add the right pieces.   Just as he said publicly in 2011.  And then the payroll -- as he predicted -- jumped above the $120-million threshold.
Mike Green - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#334062) #
It seemed pretty clear to me that in the 2013-14 off-season, Anthopoulos believed that he had more resources available at the beginning of the off-season than he did later. 
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#334063) #
You're welcome CF. Yes, both Anthopolous and Beeston were consistent from the outset in terms of where they intended to head. Draft better and trade, which is what they did. Of course the water mark for drafting when Anthopolous took over was not at the high-water mark, but he still made a major improvement in the organization. That improved organizational level in my opinion is now heading into better territory .

Parker though, is also correct, when he states that payroll has never been the problem. The team was never to be built by the frenzied free agent spending imagined on the internet. If you look at the starting point in late 2009 when Anthopolous was hired, in terms of the last place major league roster and the worst-in-class 'farm system', you can see how far there was to go. Only on the internet is it imagined that the front office wanted or intended to build the foundation of an organization through the free agent market, the most cost-insane market that there is.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#334064) #
I don't understand at all how trading prospects for another teams' free agent signings is a more effective use of resources than simply just signing those free agents. I mean, if you're obsessed with semantics, then... okay? You win. Anthopoulos stuck to his mandate of not building through free agency. Good for him.

Is there no argument to be made that when you sign a free agent, you get your money's worth in the first year of the deal, and maybe the second, but you're sinking a cost after that? If a team needs to trade assets to acquire those free agents after their first or second season, are they not only giving the other teams the valuable part of the free agent contract for free, but also squandering their own assets in order to pick up the non-productive part of that contract?

Claiming that an organization stuck to its guns by not signing big free agent contracts, but is perfectly willing to trade assets for those same contracts other teams are saddled with, after those teams have already gotten the best value of those contracts really doesn't sound like much of a defense, honestly.
Mike Green - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#334065) #
In the 2013-14 off-season, Anthopoulos indicated at the outset his wish to acquire one or two starting pitchers.  When he could not acquire any, he mentioned payroll parameters as the reason.  It was around the time that Mr. Laurence arrived on the scene at Rogers and things were in flux.  The same thing happened, unsurprisingly, around the time of Ted Rogers' death. 
Magpie - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#334066) #
When in Chicago, the Dodgers stay at the Trump International. Not Adrian Gonzalez, who had the team arrange alternate accommodations for him.

"I had my reasons."

He didn't say what they were, but Gonzalez grew up in Mexico, has often played for Mexican teams in international competition, and is involved in a number of charitable projects there, especially in Tijuana.
uglyone - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#334067) #
yeah something seemed to change, and buyinng FAs is obviously better than trading for them.

at the same time, it was near impossible to get any top FA to sign here without cleanly outbidding everyone else.

now that we've made the playoffs though, things instantly changed there.
christaylor - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#334068) #
"If a team needs to trade assets to acquire those free agents after their first or second season, are they not only giving the other teams the valuable part of the free agent contract for free, but also squandering their own assets in order to pick up the non-productive part of that contract?"

First, who does this describe on the Jays? Tulo? He came with the net positive of unloading a more unproductive piece in Reyes. Reyes was in his 2nd year. Price was clearly a rental so the non-productive part of the contract doesn't apply. Assets can be squandered sure but with prospects there is often sharp depreciation. What assets were squandered? If it is the players in the Detroit deal, I'm fine with that, it is easy to imagine that without Price that the Jays don't make the playoffs in 2015.

I'm not sure if you are making an apples to apples comparison. With a trade for a free agent, one can fill needs and obtain players that would not otherwise consider Toronto as a destination. All the rumors are that there are/were many FA in that group. Finally, there's substantial inflation year-to-year in the FA market which means the third year of a deal, even with declining production, might be a better value in year 3 than it looked like when the deal was signed.

This talk make sense, the Jays are down in the ALCS (again), the window AA opened is closing, and there don't seem to be any impact players on the farm. Is it game time yet?
#2JBrumfield - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#334069) #
Bautista leading off tonight, Tulo cleanup.

SportsCentre Verified account @SportsCentre 6m6 minutes ago

GM 3 @BlueJays lineup: 1. Bautista, 2. Donaldson, 3. Encarnacion, 4. Tulowitzki, 5. Martin, 6. Saunders, 7. Pillar, 8. Carrera, 9. Goins



Vulg - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#334070) #
Anthopoulos said all kinds of things. One of the things he said when he first got hired was that he was going to build a sustainable organization. A couple years later he started trading prospect packages for other teams' free-agent signings. Payroll increased like crazy. The Jays didn't win.

Payroll isn't the problem. It never was.

Payroll for *all* MLB teams has increased like crazy. The Blue Jays relative ranking in terms of dollars spent on players has been pretty consistent for the past 4 years (9th, 9th, 10th and 11th per Spotrack). It's true that 2012 was an inflection point, with the Dickey trade as the clear marker for when things spiked upwards, but the team didn't really have a roster that justified a larger payroll prior to then. (i.e. "rebuild mode")

What I've been hoping to see as a result of the past 1.5 seasons, where the team has experienced a massive uptick in both attendance and viewership, is some kind of carry-over into payroll. Does more money guarantee more success? Of course not, but it sure changes the equation. If you take the current roster and drop $10M - $20M worth of plus relief arms (or another starter, or a better bench, or whatever), Gibby is just in a better place to play with pieces.

Anyways, I'm enjoying the post-season immensely even accounting for the last couple of games. I'm happy to defer that conversation until our run is over. For now, I just really want the hitters to show a more "take what the pitcher gives you" approach. It just seems like the boys are trying to win or tie the game with one swing too often (I do give credit to Cleveland's pitching, but they've looked mortal outside of Miller).
christaylor - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#334071) #
Ugh. 7,8,9. As ugly as Upton has looked out there I'd rather see him than Carrera.

That said, it doesn't matter if 1-6 are their September selves. 538 has the chances of the jays winning as a little better than making an inside straight after the flop.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#334072) #
Payroll has gone up all over, but some organizations use their payroll to develop and retain internal resources, at least until those players hit free agency, and to identify undervalued free agents, and sign those guys without having to spend anything but money and scouting budget. I was hoping the Jays would become one of those organizations under Anthopoulos. The team the Jays are currently down 2-0 to has done a pretty good job in that regard. Now that the top Cleveland people are working for the Jays (and early returns seem very positive) I'm a lot more confident, but it'll be a while before we'll get to see how well that works out. I'm a big fan of what they've done so far.

Like I said, we'll have to wait and see.
Parker - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#334073) #
Not every free agent will sign with the Jays for the same money, obviously, but winning organizations always seem to find the right free agents and convince them to sign on. Even if it costs the Jays more because of the Canadian thing, if the organization develops a consistent winning culture, they have the clout to spend a little more to convince those guys who really want to win.

Two years of playoff contention is huge, and a big part of that was because of Anthopoulos, so I certainly give him full credit there. If the new regime can keep the team competitive despite the mounting cost-per-win of the existing big-dollar contracts, there's really no reason they can't get back to the days when guys like Molitor and Winfield chose the Jays when they could've signed anywhere they wanted.
uglyone - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#334074) #
glad to see the three big bats will all come up in the first inning and more than any other bats.
scottt - Monday, October 17 2016 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#334075) #
Tulo was a great trade.

Reyes, Buehrle (who held his value to the end), Bonifacio (complete bust), Josh Johnson (complete bust) and Buck.
I'm pretty sure they could have signed the like of John Buck if they wanted.

Still, the prospects in that trade weren't very good.

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