0-32 with RISP in the last 5 games. Fairly impressive to leave that stretch 2-3. That lack of luck will turn, need the good Estrada tonight, too.

Happ's HR/FB rate is an "impressive" 30%.  He isn't giving up harder-hit balls or more pulled balls than last year or than an average pitcher.  A few of them have been head-scratchers.  Healy's first home run last night was on a pitch that looked to have pretty good downward plane, and was on the outer third of the plate and reasonably down.  I wonder what Russell Martin thought about it.

Devon Travis has just been DLed. Not the hand - it's a bone bruise in his right knee. Really doesn't sound good.

Bad news. We've moved beyond simple bad luck for Travis and his injuries. This team needs another bat. Donaldson is the only certainty to be an above average offensive player in the daily lineup (Bautista likely is but I think that's a growing question mark) and with one and sometimes two black holes in the lineup every game (Goins and Maile), they are likely to be a roughly average offensive team. I don't think that will do in order for this team to be a playoff club.

I believe Travis was hurt in his final season in Detroit's system as well. So that's four straight years now. It's becoming harder to depend on him as an everyday player if his first three big league seasons are any indication. The team definitely needs to add another infielder, or upgrade enough at another position to compensate for the inevitable Goins/Barney platoon at 2B (if it becomes a longer term option).

I wonder if Travis wasn't returned to action too quickly this spring. He was still having issues with his knee in spring training and got the all-clear not long before the season began. A slower transition to full-time play with additional rehab might have made more sense. On the other hand, he might just be one of those players who get injured a lot. It's most unfortunate, as he is an excellent player and an important part of the team.

On the other hand, he might just be one of those players who get injured a lot.

He's definitely got a Bob Horner vibe going.

Tough break for Travis.  I'm maybe a little more optimistic about his recovery than most.  As there was no indication of any knee symptoms at the time, it might be a case where he and the club felt that they could take care of something mechanical in the knee arising from the off-season surgery while also letting his hand heal. 

This club can win with a league average offence, especially if Sanchez comes back strong and Pompey makes it back.  A front four of Stroman, Estrada, Sanchez and Biagini is extremely strong.  The bullpen is solid, and there is the making of a much better team defence. 

that stinks. another one you'd hope for our new performance dept to have an impact on.

For those who missed it, mbltraderumors has another draft feature, this one about the thought process behind the drafting of Russell Martin.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/inside-the-draft-room-the-2002-2003-dodgers.html

and i still don't get this "weak offense" take. what lineups are you guys comparing them to exactly? they've been maybe the best offense in baseball since their mvp bat came back.

Tough break for Travis.

With two middle infielders prone to injury (to say nothing of an erstwhile rock solid third baseman now showing that even Odin can no longer protect his good health -- even after serving up his Viking brother as a sacrifice), there would appear to be indefinite spots on the roster for both Barney and Goins.

Travis indicates that he felt fine boarding the plane to Oakland but his knee barked as he was getting off.  Long flights might be harder on the knee than turning the double play...

Anyways, I'm rooting for him. 

I didn't remotely say weak offence. I think it's roughly a league average offence (that is quite far from weak).

I think a league average offence, in the AL East, must be paired with significantly above average run suppression for success. That is certainly possible with this team but it requires starting pitcher health, some continuation of the surprising success of the current high leverage relievers (surprising for those not named Osuna), and improved defence. That's a lot to go right.

Thanks Mike. How does that become a bruise? I always think a bruise comes from a hit or collision. Sitting down and getting a bruise doesn't seem right.

Travis isn't a tall guy, you would think he would have enough leg room. Maybe something happened in the game where he didn't realise that something happened.

Travis has a bone bruise with cartilage damage that was repaired during the off-season. I can imagine that there might be reduced circulation in the leg after a long flight and then some minor awkward move while disembarking might lead to an aggravation of the cartilage problem. That's just a guess. Bone bruises are different from skin bruises.

Gibbons believes this is another long term injury. He did not explain why.

A "bone bruise" is a misnomer - it's actually a fracture of the inner layer of the bone and the pain typically intensifies after a day or two. Long flights can cause swelling, so my guess is that that Travis re-injured his knee on Friday or Saturday night but played through the initial pain, and then the combination of time and ~4 hours in the air triggered the "flare-up".

He also has a cartilage issue and both of these things can become chronic issues when there's any sort of re-injury to an original injury. I'm quite worried for him.

Ok, Campbell's cynical cut of "Evertyhing is Awesome" after Gibby's interview was really funny.

there would appear to be indefinite spots on the roster for both Barney and Goins

I don't begrudge either of them their roster spot. They are both True Blue Jays, especially Goins, and I think there is value in maintaining l'esprit de corps. Nonetheless, I think 2017 Goins is below replacement level. The glove's gone. Maybe temporarily, maybe for good, who knows. His bat has improved a bit but not enough to make up the difference. If Travis stands to miss significantly more than a month, for this or any other injury, let 29 front office phones ring off the hook.

After Travis got beaned he stayed in the game to run the bases, and he had a really awkward dive back into 3B on a wild pitch while trying to protect his hand. His knee looked fine walking off the field, though.

Here's a pic from @authenticglow of the aftermath: https://twitter.com/NorthYorkJays/status/872256965803741184

Brett Lawrie, come on down.

even average i don't get. who is the best offense? the astros?

rest of season projected wrc+

donaldson 139 - correa 130
Bautista 124 -- altuve 128
morales 112 --- springer 126
pearce 111 ---- reddick 110
smoak 106 ----- bregman 106
Tulowitzki 104 - gurriel 106
martin 102 ---- mccann 103
travis 101 ---- beltran 103
pillar 93 ----- aoki 93

coghlan 89 ---- gattis 109
carrera 85 ---- gonzalez 102
barney 65 ----- reed 91
goins 65 ------ kemp 84
maile 56 ------ marisnick 78

pompey 91
tellez 90
smith 82
salty 73
alford 69

Just FYI, since the start of the 2016 season the Jays are 14th in MLB in runs scored per game(they were 11th last year and 22nd this year). I think that sort of meets the definition of a league average offence.

The description on TV of the Travis injury as cartilage damage in his surgically repaired knee, combined with seeing Travis in tears as he talked about it, seems ominous. I hope he doesn't need surgery, but it sounded like they were thinking that was a real possibility.

That data shows a significantly better offense on the right hand side, considering Travis could be seriously hurt and Pearce is a utility player. The Astros don't lose much resting their players because Marwin Gonzalez and Evan Gattis are above average hitters providing insurance across the field. An offense that on most days has 3 of Pillar, Carrera, Barney/Goins, and Maile is one that needs improvement.

Also, wRC+ doesn't (I don't think) capture the baserunning component of offensive production. As an older team with some slow players and no true
basestealers, I imagine the Jays are an average-to-weak baserunning team overall.

92-93, the Jays' back ups offer value defensively and as base runners so the fall off isn't quite as big as the offence only numbers suggest. However, if Smoak reverts to who he has always been and age has hit Tulo and Bautista as the year to date numbers suggest, then the lineup will struggle to be league average.

92-93, the Jays' back ups

At first glance, I thought you were talking about the backup players from the 92-93 teams. First time Willie Canate had crossed my mind in years....

I believe the record of grounded into DP in a season is 31. I think Morales is a serious contender to break the record.

The backups definitely don't offer any value as baserunners, and defensively it's only Maile that's a real plus with Goins getting most of the starts at 2B.

It's so frustrating watching them piss away opportunities against a bad team.

I disagree. I think Barney has value as both a baserunner and defensively at all three infield positions and Goins is a good baserunner who is an average to above average defender at 2B. I agree that he struggles as a SS. The Houston reserves are offence only substitutes. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have the Houston bench situation, but my point was that the gap isn't as big as the simple offensive difference.

We are witnessing a clinic in questionable baserunning this evening.

OK, hands up everybody who thought Scooter Gennett would be the 1st Cincinnati Red and the 15th player in mlb history to hit 4 HR's in a game. Hit a single in his 1st AB as well, and drove in 10 runs. Youneverknow.

The Barney I've seen this year is a mediocre runner and defender at 3B, but sure maybe he's a better defender than Gonzalez (I have no idea). Marisnick is a big piece though, he provides baserunning and outfield defense that the Jays simply do not have (at least until Pompey is healthy). Either way, I was responding to a data table that was focused on the Jays offense.

When you carry an unnecessary 8th RP you get to watch Ryan Goins hit vs. a lefty down 4-1 with a runner on.

For those complaining about the Jays bench just look back to the WS years (seeing that 92-93 backup bit got me thinking). In 1993 10 non-regulars had 50+ PA's. None had a 100 OPS+ and 2 were in the 20's (Alfredo Griffin 28 and Luis Sojo 20) with one other one at -2 (Domingo Cedeno). Boy did the IF backups suck that year. Another backup (who was the regular at the start) was Dick Schofield with a 44 OPS+. Looking at those stats the trade for Tony Fernandez who put up a 115 OPS+ looks like the best move Gillick ever made. That teams bench even had Shawn Green & Carlos Delgado getting their first ML tastes and they went a combined 0-7 with a walk. Luckily they had 4 guys with 5+ WAR each in Olerud/White/Alomar/Molitor. Talk about a Stars and Scrubs lineup. Yeash.

The injuries to Pompey and Gurriel hurt the bench. Still, the Jays are not without options.
I'd have gone with Smith over Coghlan by now.

The bone bruise sounds like something that will need several months to heal completely.

I would not be surprised if Travis is done for the season, especially if there's surgery for the cartilage issue. Chronic knee injuries are career impacting, and the conservative treatment in this case would be many months of rest to ensure that the bone and tissues are mostly/fully healed before there's any chance of re-injury.

Scooter Gennett was born in Cincinnati, grew up a Reds fan, was claimed on waivers by them in March, and then hits 4 HR in a home game in his home town. What a great story.

I would not be surprised if Travis is done for the season, especially if there's surgery for the cartilage issue. Chronic knee injuries are career impacting, and the conservative treatment in this case would be many months of rest to ensure that the bone and tissues are mostly/fully healed before there's any chance of re-injury. Scooter Gennett was born in Cincinnati, grew up a Reds fan, was claimed on waivers by them in March, and then hits 4 HR in a home game in his home town. What a great story.

Gennett's condition kind-of reminds me about Ryan Schimpf. The latter hit 20HR last season but hits 14HR already this season and below the Mendoza Line. If the Padres designates Schimpf for assignment or wants to trade away, can the Jays claim him? Travis is injured; Goins is light in hitting. On the 40-men roster, Schimpf would replace Coghlan -- both lefthanded hitting while Zeke, Barney and Goins could take care of the Coghlan's defensive utility.
Enjoy the story while possible. Gennett was a waiver claim so there is consideration about his DFA.

There are quite a few ways Travis might have hurt his knee.  His knee might also have buckled or twisted some when the pitch hit him on the hand.  No one would be paying attention to the lower part of his body at that point.  It seems that it is not an incidental injury anyways, and that the recovery period will be prolonged. 

What do the Jays have in Kendrys Morales?  He unquestionably hits the ball very hard even though he will be turning 34 in a couple of weeks.  His command of the strike zone is fair.  He is Molina/Aikens slow.  Almost 1/2 of his balls in play are hit on the ground.  It all adds up to a player who cannot be expected to be much better than replacement level (as a DH anyways).  For myself, I'm itching to see Pompey and Smith in the OF and Bautista DHing, but it might just be the old minor league hound in me.

I really don't know what to make of Ryan Goins.  When I saw him in the minors at two different stages in his career, he looked like a typical utility infielder- solid defence and a plebeian but not hopeless bat.  He became a great defender and poor hitter for a couple of years, and now seems to have learned to hit better but fallen off tremendously in the field.  His first step seems a lot slower.  I wonder if it's a hip mobility issue that Jeter had to work on at one point.

Glenn Sparkman is the starting pitcher for New Hampshire in today's game.  Sounds like he is being fast-tracked to the majors at this point. 

Sparkman is allowed 30 days rehab in minors. I think they want to get the best possible look at him in order to make a decision.

they look jet lagged so far, and are still not timing their hits right. gotta wake up and avoid the sweep.

estrada is kinda looking mediocre lately. hope it's just a blip.

Mike, I agree about Morales. Of the 4 players whose best position is DH/1B (Pearce, Bautista, Morales and Smoak), Morales and Smoak are the least valuable. In a perfect world, when Pearce returns you would take whichever of Morales/Smoak isn't hitting (clearly that's Morales right now) and make them your everyday PH (for whichever of Carrera, Goins, Barney comes up in high leverage situation). Unfortunately, that would require the Jays to come up with two OF solutions and to be sitting an $11m player, neither of which seem likely to me. This is the nasty confluence of two of the obvious offseason roster construction issues (at least one OF short and at least one too many players whose best position is 1B/DH)that the front office created.

morales has a 136wrc+ his last 10gms so he's not exactly not hitting.

but there's no question that the roster dewign was always going to end up with defensive liabilities in the corner OF spots.

"....two of the obvious offseason roster construction issues (at least one OF short and at least one too many players whose best position is 1B/DH)that the front office created...."

Very true.  It was obvious enough that even us, the fans, were commenting on it in the late stages of the off-season.  I suppose the bid for Dexter Fowler was an implicit admission by the Front Office that they were aware of it too.

To be charitable to the Front Office, perhaps we would be feeling a little different about it if Pearce had been healthy and productive and was playing primarily in LF, but that still wouldn't have resolved the outfield-defence problem.

"....Sparkman is allowed 30 days rehab in minors...."

Thanks, PeterG, I had forgotten how many days he was allowed.  His rehab seems to have officially begun on June 1 in Dunedin, so he still has 3 weeks to go, if they use the full 30 days.

But I'm surprised that they seem to be converting him to a starter.  It would only give him another 3 or 4 appearances after today, if he stays in the NH rotation.  Perhaps they see him as a potential long-man in the bullpen and they want to stretch him out.  However, putting him in the rotation also allows the Jays to control his innings, so that they can watch him as closely as they want. Maybe that's the explanation.

I'm not sure why people are so optimistic on Sparkman?  He has to be a legit contributor to justify keeping him on the roster, we are on the bubble for the playoffs and I don't want to burn ANY games for resource management purposes.

The bullpen depth chart, IMO, is Osuna, Smith, Liriano / Biagini, Tepera, Barnes, Loup, Leone, Howell, Grilli.  There are tons of Buffalo shuttle guys beyond this - Campos, Beliveau, both Smiths, and the rest of the guys on the 40 man. 

People don't seem ready to talk DFA for the struggling vets, so unless Sparkman wows on his rehab, where does he fit in? 

Sparkman is starting now, I believe, to get him as many inning as possible.

If he is kept by the Jays he is likely to be used as a mop unless or until starters are traded. Every team needs a mop who can eat up some lower leverage innings and it should be someone who can go at least 3 innings. If Sparkman is kept it will be at the expense of one of the underperforming vets barring more injuries.

yeah jer i don't really see the sparkman hype. people expectint another biagini i guess. he's no guarantee and thanks to the injury he'll have to earn any chance he gets.

Osuna: 24gms, 22.2ip, 33.7k%/2.3b%, 65era-, 44fip-, 55xfip-, 2.4war/65ip
Smith: 30gms, 27.2ip, 38.2k%/6.4b%, 69era-, 42fip-, 45xfip-, 1.9war/65ip
Biagini: 14gms, 18.2ip, 23.9k%/4.2b%, 80era-, 63fip-, 72xfip-, 1.9war/65ip
Tepera: 26gms, 32.2ip, 25.8k%/10.9b%, 71era-, 71fip-, 102xfip-, 1.3war/65ip
Loup: 27gms, 21.1ip, 25.3k%/9.5b%, 49era-, 75fip-, 96xfip-, 1.2war/65ip
Barnes: 19gms, 25.0ip, 28.3k%/7.1b%, 67era-, 87fip-, 90xfip-, 1.0war/65ip
Leone: 22gms, 25.2ip, 24.5k%/9.4b%, 90era-, 86fip-, 109xfip-, 0.6war/65ip
---------------------------------------
Campos: 5gms, 8.0ip, 26.5k%/8.8b%, 53era-, 92fip-, 106xfip-, 0.0war/65ip
Howell: 13gms, 8.2ip, 11.4k%/15.9b%, 195era-, 136fip-, 135xfip-, -1.9war/65ip
Grilli: 22gms, 17.2ip, 24.7k%/10.6b%, 192era-, 207fip-, 112xfip-, -2.8war/65ip


tough group to crack, really.

Morales has a 134 wRC+ since May 1 (75 in April). It is definitely frustrating at times having a slow footed DH who hits a surprising amount of ground balls, but he is at least producing lately. He has actually been the 4th best hitter on the team behind Donaldson, Smoak, and Martin in terms of wRC+. Aside from the 3rd year of his deal which I am already dreading two months into year one, he pretty much is what he is, for better or worse. It's becoming more noticeable due to injuries/struggling of others, and the lack of a real LF.

As far as Sparkman, not every Rule 5 pick will be Biagini, but the Jays clearly need a multiple inning option out of the pen, and Sparkman at least comes with some upside. Why not see if you can get an asset for free again? Grilli and Howell have been seldom used mop up guys for the past month, and the only time Gibbons uses relievers that he does not trust is during mop up time. That's an ideal spot for a Rule 5 pick if you think he has upside, and clearly they picked him up for a reason.

but i mean all of biagini tepera barnes leone are multi-innong options out of the pen.

I agree that Morales has hit better lately and he's pulled his RC+ for the year up to 107. His career RC+ is 113. So, what we've seen to date (cumulatively) is what your going to get (give or take). At his year to date RC+ of 107 he's exactly replacement level because of his baserunning, defence and positional adjustment. In all, I'm fairly agnostic to Morales. I think he does very little to aid the Jays chances of being a playoff team this year but he certainly isn't the problem. The roster construction (collectively) is more the problem.

I guess you could give Morales for hitting well in high leverage situations.  It's something that he has done over his entire career- .287/.345/.508 over 864 PAs.

We definitely don't need a longman - this was discussed in another thread when people were saying we need a Biagini-type longman.  Barnes, Tepera and Leone have all pitched longer outings this season than any Biagini did last year.  Guys like Campos and Beliveau are specifically being groomed in Buffalo to handle this role if they are needed on the Buffalo shuttle. 

Question for the offseaason fans of the Morales signing - is this the type of production you were hoping for, or was more expected?  He's certainly doing better than I had thought - his current output was about the best case scenario IMO when we signed him.

While Barnes and Tepera can throw more than one inning, they can't do that if they are going to be the primary, non-9th inning, high leverage guys (along with Smith). As we saw in May, Gibbons will use them in that role a lot. A two plus inning stint will burn them for at least one if not two days.

for me morales has been exactly as advertised. solidly above average hitter whose defensive and baserunning liabilities makes him maybe a 1war type player. fair value for the cost enough but not much ceiling there and still not the kind of guy i'd have given multi years to.

Morales 2016: .263/.327/.468
Morales 2017: .260/.314/.471
Morales 2017 ZIPS projection: .266/.329/.470

Morales has performed as one should have reasonably expected him to heading into the season. Maybe the FO thought they were getting more based on his hard contact rate, but we haven't seen the hard contact translate because he hits the ball on the ground so often.

Agreed 92-93/uglyone.

The front office spent a good deal of time in the offseason talking about lineup balance. They were talking about L/R balance and used that as one of the positives in the Morales signing. I think the front office may need to think about OBP/SLG balance. The Jays are 24th in MLB in OBP. I expect that to improve but only so much. This line up contains a locust's swarm of out making machines - the expected problem areas of LF/2B and back-up catcher; but also Pillar, Tulo, and Smoak are all reasonable bets to post sub .320 OBPs. With Travis out, only Donaldson, Bautista and Martin project to be positive OBP contributors. I'd like to see some focus on that in the offseason.

The reason for our interest in Sparkman is simply that there are likely to be openings in the bullpen this year, and the Jays clearly have an ability to juggle the existing personnel to ensure that a long-term asset is kept in the system.  Grilli and Howell are obviously problems, and both will be gone at the end of the season, if not much earlier.  So there's a need for an upgrade in 2 of the 7 bullpen positions, which creates at least one opening, if not two.  And the mop-up role is open.  If the Jays believe that Sparkman is a potential long-term asset, why wouldn't they make an effort to keep him?  Especially when other relievers (Barnes, Leone, Campos etc) have options and can be juggled as needed.

Nobody is arguing that the Jays desperately need Sparkman's arm in the bullpen.  Of course there is adequate depth at the moment without him.  The point is that Sparkman could be a long-term asset, and the Jays have ways to adjust their bullpen to keep him -- so why wouldn't they?

Sparkman, incidentally, went 3.2 innings for NH today.  He gave up 3 runs -- primarily because of a couple of HRs.  But he only allowed 4 hits in total.  For his AA debut in his rehab assignment, it's not bad. But he'll need to improve soon.

There are one or two spots open in the pen only if you demote Leone AND cut both Grilli and Howell.  I will be unimpressed if we demote Barnes or Tepera to accommodate a 25 year old rule 5 guy, coming off a major injury, who has all of 9 games above A ball - I think they are officially off the shuttle at this point. 

Sparkman is not nothing - he had a great 2014 - but I don't even have him in my top 30 prospects list.  He's like Chris Smith in terms of value, except he can't be demoted, which seems to be the most critical element of a reliever at the bottom end of the depth chart in terms of maximizing the utility of the pen. 

I'm plenty fine with the likes of Beliveau and Campos handling longman / mop up duty, and think they both might be more valuable than Sparkman.

Chris Coghlan...I mean, when you've got a guy about to turn 32 and is sub-replacement atrocious in all facets of the game, you simply have to find a way to get him on the field every day.

The Jays' fielding has been less than crisp today.  Flaccid? Lame?  Limp?  Erratic?  Maybe bad is a simpler description.  It's been a team effort with Coghlan leading the way. 

While I'm working on antonyms for crisp, Mike D is delivering a zinger.  A couple of Cokes for that one.

I guess Barnes, Tepera, Smith and Osuna for an inning apiece with the off-day tomorrow.

So do we keep Biagini in the rotation and hope Liriano can be that 2nd lefty we need out of the pen?

I mean i don't see much reason to think sparkman can be better than Leone. or even as good. they're the same ag3, too. i understand not giving up on grilli/howell quickly, but i'm not sure we should be demoting a guy pitching as well as leone to force a guy like sparkman into the bullpen.

I thought Liriano deserved a better fate. As Mike said, he suffered from some suboptimal defensive support.

eh, he couldn't throw strikes, and the misplays came off of rockets. everytime a runner got on i expected him to score. liriano reminds me of the old happ 1.0 i used to hate watching pitch so much.

On a positive note, both Barnes and Tepera look like they have futures as high leverage relievers. Tepera could stand to walk a few less than he has but otherwise their underlying numbers support that their success isn't a fluke. SSS warnings apply of course.

YES.

Is it time we all started to take up Smoaking?

All-star Justin Smoak.

I think the Jays signed Morales thinking his hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle, etc, etc, was going to translate better to a hitter's environment. There's still time for that to happen, but so far he's the same old guy except with a 50% GB%, which is not good.

On another note, Smoak has been great this season.

I haven't seen enough of Sparkman to have an opinion.
His scouting report at fangraphs says he command his fastball and he has deception to his delivery.
It's not clear if his slider or his curve should be his 2nd pitch, but he strikes hitters out.
He predicts as a potential middle of the rotation guy.

At some point they'll have to cut bait on Grilli or Howell.

And I already talked about getting rid of Coghlan.

Tepera and Barnes are being used in high leverage situations, and are right behind Osuna and Smith in the bullpen pecking order. They should not be counted on to pitch mop up innings or multiple innings when they are needed for the more important ones. Right now the high leverage relievers are Osuna, Smith, Tepera, Barnes, and Loup. Grilli and Howell are in limbo and can't be counted on to pitch multiple innings, while Leone is on the shuttle. Giving Sparkman innings out of the pen is a no brainer, IMO, as long as he is healthy and the stuff looks good.

All-Star Smoak who is controllable for the next two and a half seasons at a total cost of about $10-12m...a contract that many fans excoriated the front office for agreeing to.

yep, i hated the smoam contract. no doubt. would love to see a list of 30yr olds with 3000pa+ that break out like this.

and RP:


1.Osuna
2.Smith
3.Biagini
4.Tepera
5.Barnes
6.loup
7.Leone

they can't all be high lev guys.

All-star Justin Smoak.

Can't help thinking there is a touch of sarcasm, but he does have a good case. Leading all AL 1B's in wRC+. Only 1 HR behind Judge for the major league lead. SLG .597, top 10 in all MLB.

no sarcasm. he deserves to start the allstar game at this point - if allstar slots are decided by current year performance.

would love to see a list of 30yr olds with 3000pa+ that break out like this.

Cozart this year at 31, Jose and Edwin had their big breakouts at 29.

Yonder Alonzo is 30 - these are just off the top of my head.

Pat Tabler is maligned as a broadcaster, but two players he's been absolutely bang on about (and said it long before their breakouts) are Chris Davis and Smoak. Whenever the Jays played the Rangers, he had a conviction that Davis was a beast, and we've seen the results.

Interestingly they were both at first base in the Rangers system, and Texas banked on Smoak trading Davis for Kojii.

Pat Tabler is maligned as a broadcaster, but two players he's been absolutely bang on about

Broken clocks, and all that.

Shapiro/Atkins definitely deserve credit for the extension in hindsight, especially if Smoak keeps performing like this, but that doesn't mean it made sense at the time. I've always said Smoak had a very enticing offensive skill set (solid batted ball profile, lots of FB, good BB%, power potential, etc), but at age 30 with a career full of replacement level performance, that extension was a lot of faith by the front office.

I can understand giving a young player a contract extension for expected future performance, but giving one to a 30-year old who had the type of career to that point that Smoak had was rightfully questioned. In hindsight, if they guessed right and the Jays have another late bloomer on their hands, then that's great. That extension wasn't luck. They gave it to him specifically because they thought he was better than he was. They deserve a ton of props for that if it continues to work out like it has.

Going forward, they have to manage the 40 roster. You can only hoard so many high level prospects without bringing them up.

Arguably, the extension made sense because the cost was so low (two years at $4.1m per year plus a club option with a $0.2m buyout). It's not really comparable to the higher-priced extensions out there (like, say, the recent Segura extension).

If you always wait until an extension "makes sense" in the conventional sense, i.e. the player has been excelling for a significant period of time, then you're going to pay a lot more for your player extensions.

no sarcasm. he deserves to start the allstar game at this point - if allstar slots are decided by current year performance.

By no means of an analogy, I am just showing that John Buck was an allstar for one season...

Justin Smoak is in the same situation right now as Bautista was when he first started hitting home runs: he's made an adjustment, and the league is still pitching to him as if he was the old Smoak. It took over a year for the league to figure out that Joey Bats no longer could be busted inside with fastballs, so that might be how long Smoak has before the league figures him out again.

I'm sure that Brooks Baseball has the inside dope on what Smoak is doing, but one stat I noticed was his AVG/OBP/SLG with two strikes:

- 2016: .145/.214/.273
- 2017: .223/.286/.466

That's a huge difference (and .223 is really quite good with two strikes).

Then again, you never know. Eric Thames was the talk of baseball in April when he returned from Korea and hit 11 home runs in the first month of the season. In May, he hit three home runs and batted .221; so far in June, he is 2 for 18 (.111).

No doubt, there is an army of advance scouts and video experts going over Smoak's at-bats on videotape, looking for possible holes that they can exploit. But they haven't found them yet, so let's enjoy the ride while it lasts.

I assume you are referring to protection from the rule 5 draft. As well as players on the 40 man being currently usable to the parent club.

Urena, Borucki and H Ramirez are 3 examples of pure protection/hoarding this year. None of them are ready to help the parent club.

The Buffalo shuttle of fringe players has its value.

The Blue Jays lead the league in attendance despite being in last place.  They have been hit very hard with injuries in the first few months of the year, and the prospect pool in the upper minors to fill the openings is pretty weak (although it is very strong in the low minors), so the need to add talent from outside the organization is pretty clear. I am thinking, of course, of Shapiro's description of the club's covenant with fans- if the covenant means something, this surely is an occasion to spend some money (as Shapiro did last year when he acquired Liriano).

In the meantime, I don't know why Gibbons would play Coghlan over Carrera in left-field against a RHP.  Carrera had reverse platoon splits up until this year, but has been very good this year against RHP and hopeless in limited at-bats against LHP.  Since he arrived in Toronto, he's had 543 PAs against RHP.  He's hitting .261/.320/.364 against them over that period.  He's an erratic fielder but with decent range overall.  He's an erratic baserunner but a slight positive overall.  Carreira is a bit of a space cadet, but he's a lot better than Coghlan out there.  It is demoralizing for pitchers to put a poor defence out there unnecessarily.

the prospect pool in the upper minors to fill the openings is pretty weak (although it is very strong in the low minors)

I agree completely with your assessment. But, to be fair, the Jays have been hit hard with injuries to potential outfield backups: Pompey, Ceciliani, and Alford are all out, and Pearce is out at the major league level. There aren't many teams that can scrounge up an eighth outfielder to fill a hole.

"It is demoralizing for pitchers to put a poor defence out there unnecessarily."

Liriano was by no means good yesterday, but in addition to the 2 balls Coghlan misplayed, Pillar had a couple (bad break on the 1st Rajai hit and then getting to, but not holding on to a looper), Tulo's error and Goins double clutch on a potential double play ball.

There have been no surprises so far as to this team's holes/needs. The same problems that were evident in January are evident now. Management (I say that collectively because I have no way of knowing how to allocate responsibility between Rogers and the baseball management) made a clear decision not to expend the resources (cash or prospects) to address those roster issues. I don't mean to reopen the debate about whether they should have or not but I don't see them changing their minds now. The team led the league in attendance and had unbelievable ratings last year.

I feel like this year isna great proof of why the WAR valuation for DHs is so accurate - the DH slot being permanently clogged now really hurts our flexibility dramatically. This is why a guy loke fowler is deservedly so much more valuable (even during a bad start this year).

I have no idea what the FO really thinks about pompey but i sure hope they agreed with me coming into the yea that he was the best option to fill the LF slot this year, if everything went as expected.

But again we should note that a pillar/pompey/alford outfield would be elite defensively, and the potential to be average offensively.

"Arguably, the extension made sense because the cost was so low (two years at $4.1m per year plus a club option with a $0.2m buyout)."


The cost being low is what made the extension palatable, not necessarily sensible. When he was extended in July 2016, he had a 101 wRC+, .315 BABIP and 31.2 K%. In other words, he was average overall offensively and a bit lucky to even be that good. His career prior to that was also about replacement level overall. What he is doing this season is unlike anything he's done previously. Across the board his contact rates have improved substantially and he's not striking out anywhere near as much. He's basically a switch hitting prime Edwin Encarnacion now (well, at least based on 2017 so far).

Again, props to the FO for the foresight, but the deal was justifiably questioned at the time even though the cost was minimal, IMO.

Regardless, I'm glad the extension happened and he's doing this in a Jays uniform. Hopefully he keeps it up.

"Pillar had a couple (bad break on the 1st Rajai hit and then getting to, but not holding on to a looper), "

seems like this has happened to pillar all year. so many close but no cigar plays that he has always made before. hope it's just an unlucky streak.

I absolutely agree, Dave, that the injury bug not only has struck the major league club but the high minors in important ways. Regardless whether one thinks the club had a reasonable number of options at the outset of the season, they pretty clearly don't now. 

Incidentally, it's not only in the outfield.  I don't know what's up with Barney, but he seems to be fighting a nagging injury.  When combined with Travis' significant injury, there's a shortage of second base options. 

Coghlan is listed as an IF on the 40 man. Can his defense be adequate at 2B?

comparing smoak's breakout to EE/Jose:

EE (22-28): 3078pa, 8.8b%/17.2k%, .282bip/.260avg, .193iso, 106wrc+, 7.4fwar, 1.6war/650
Smoak (23-29): 2887pa, 10.6b%/23.9k%, .262bip/.223avg, .168iso, 95wrc+, 0.2fwar, 0.1war/650
Jose (23-28): 2028pa, 10.8b%/21.3k%, .281bip/.238avg, .161iso, 91wrc+, 0.3fwar, 0.1war/650


I guess it's not completely different than those two but imo it's still a bit more extreme than either - EE was always a pretty good hitter with at least some defensive value, while Jose had never really got a shot to be a fulltime player before, and both were a bit younger.

but maybe not as crazy an outlier as i thought.

of course, nobody was giving EE/JB multi year extensions before their breakouts.

Coghlan's defense is not adequate anywhere on the diamond. It's unfortunate that Jon Berti is also recovering from a concussion as he might be an ok utility player. Calling up Jason Leb may not be out of the question. I think the Jays should release both Coghlan and Carrera.

Of course the Jays probably wish they had given EE/JB an extension before their breakouts. :)

If this is for real with Smoak then that contract last summer that looked idiotic at the time will look like pure genius.

"Pompey, Ceciliani, and Alford are all out, and Pearce is out at the major league level. There aren't many teams that can scrounge up an eighth outfielder to fill a hole."

true.

though to be honest they should probably be giving Smith a look right now.

Agree on Smith Ugly.

Only Pompey is on the 60 day DL. Smith and Ramirez are taking up 2 40 man spots. I see both as 4th OFs.

It's a little disappointing that Smith isn't getting an extended look with Pearce out. Zeke is what he is, but there's no upside there. At least with Smith you can inject some youth into the lineup and see what you have with him.

Pompey got hurt at the wrong time.

Smith deserves a shot and will likely remain on 40. I can see Ramirez being dropped unless his 2nd half is a lot better than the 1st.

Ramirez has burned his 2nd option. Maybe 3rd. Pompey has burned 2 options. He could burn his 3rd this year. Ceciliani burned his 3rd option this year. I expect he will be off the 40 man this off season.

So getting everyday minor league ABs to develop further will not be possible next year while still staying on the 40 man roster for many of them.

I feel like Zeke's contribution is underrated here. He shouldn't be a everyday player, and he is prone to brain farts / is a space cadet, but he's still currently batting 289/357/395 (and is worth 0.6 WAR, a ~2 WAR per season pace) which is likely a fair bit better than a guy like Smith can produce at this time.

Smith might be a better choice than Coghlan however, who I suspect only plays to give Carrera a break (he seems to play better when given regular rest). Maybe the FO wants to makes sure Smith gets regular at bats or something, and there's always a decent chance that Smith wouldn't be much better than Coghlan anyways.

I assume that Smith can at least catch and throw the ball which neither of Coghlan or Carrera seems able to do. The offence is secondary imo.

I really hope that they are not keeping Smith in AAA because they want him to get regular ABs. That line of thinking makes perfect sense for a top prospect like Alford but Smith isn't a top prospect. Coming into this year it was hard to see him as a prospect at all.

I sincerely hope that Smith is in AAA because they believe that Coghlan is a better player. I think that is not likely to be true once defence and base running is factored in but I hope that that is the thinking.

I think that Jays don't want to yoyo Smith and that they will bring him up when they are reasonably sure he will stay. It must be very close to that point.

At age 24 it's a bit late to be worriee about yoyoing, imo.

Then what is the hesitation do u think Ugly?

i'd guess they just don't see enough of an upgrade (or any) to make it worth putting someone on waivers.

Hopefully, what we have seen of late will change that if it is indeed the reason. I think Coghlan will be gone when Pearce returns anyway and Gibby is known to like Carrera but surely his support must be wavering. I do agree that the possibility of more injuries may be a reason they are reluctant to lose any assets prematurely but we do have to have a LF who can catch and throw the ball.

Smith might be a better choice than Coghlan however, who I suspect only plays to give Carrera a break (he seems to play better when given regular rest). Maybe the FO wants to makes sure Smith gets regular at bats or something, and there's always a decent chance that Smith wouldn't be much better than Coghlan anyways.

Bautista could use some rest (perhaps DHing some of the time) too, and even Pillar from time to time.  There's enough work to give Smith starts 3 times a week easy, and that should be plenty.   

Steve Pearce is in New Hampshire's lineup tonight according to the team's twitter feed. 

Well Pearce returning sooner than expected could be a reason for delaying on Smith. At least Pearce can catch the ball and runs into one occasionally at the plate.

The goal of becoming younger could be helped along , though, by adding Smith and Pompey as soon as it is possible and prudent. I will be surprised if they are not both on the major league roster next season.

Of course, trades (if there are any) could change the forward dynamic completely.

Pearce is not an answer to the team's LF situation, other than on an occasional basis.

but if he starts hitting, he'll be the LF anyway.

Agreed. And I should have said that he can be a good but small part of the solution. But Pearce as the near everyday LF isn't a good plan.

Just thought I'd check how bad the Jays LF situation is this year. Its ugly. 28th out of 30 teams in OPS with a line of 209/288/303 - a line that would be bad for a good fielding shortstop from a position where you expect power.

Ouch. KC and SF are worse somehow. The Mets (Michael Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes) are over 1000 OPS, Cincinnati (Adam Duvall and Scooter Gennett) and Miami (Marcell Ozuna) are both over 900.

Cincinnati (Adam Duvall and SCOOTER GENNETT)

Fixed that for you! As a wise man once said, youneverknow.

Either Pompey or Alford would be the fix in LF if we weren't cursed at the moment.  The lack of Smith may result from the fact that we already have him - a faster version of him - on the roster in Zeke.  Smith needs to be good for a while before I start believing in him.  I'm ready to cut Coghlan though - a solid attempt by the FO at a versatile stop gap, but I'd rather have Smith or J-Leb on the roster right now. 

Great read at Fangraphs (for those who haven't seen it) on Smoak's breakout season.  In a nutshell, he's handling 2 strike counts like a champ, not a chump. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-urgent-need-for-a-justin-smoak-article/

Alford has had less than 500 minor league at bats. He should not be in the majors till at least mid 2018 and perhaps longer if the effects of the hamate injury linger. He is a good candidate for winter ball I think.

Alford is definitely a good candidate for winter ball, but sometimes you have to promote a prospect before they are 'ready' because of big league needs. 

Pompey is a good counter-example, but his was more of a mistake in assessing his readiness than a big league need.  In a perfect world, Pompey is in the LF mix in the bigs and Alford is playing everyday in AA. 

My position is that I would not hurt a prospect's development due to short term major league needs.

It's interesting how quickly the narrative surrounding a prospect can change. A scenario that some envisioned this spring was Tellez helping the Jays contend by providing an upgrade over Smoak, perhaps by midsummer. Instead, it's mid-June and Tellez has a .626 OPS in AAA while Smoak has a .950 OPS in the majors.

I've never really felt all that much excitement about Tellez as a potential impact player, but I would be happy to be proved wrong about him.

I don't think Alford is big league ready yet even if he was healthy, but Pompey probably is. Whether he is a quality MLB player remains to be seen, but I don't think there's much left for him to do in AAA. Either he'll develop power or he won't, and he'll either fix his defensive lapses (whatever they are) or he won't. They'll need to make a decision on him pretty soon due to options, but obviously with his health being what it is, they are missing a chance this season.

If Smoak is for real, then Tellez will have a tough time cracking the lineup. He can't play anywhere other than 1B/DH, and both spots are/might be taken up through 2019 (if Smoak's option is picked up). I don't think any team is going to trade for Morales, either. I want Tellez to pan out if only to make Keith Law look foolish, but he's clearly not ready yet.

for the record, pompey was younger and hitting better than alford has, when called up.

Pompey was moved through the system too quickly by the previous FO.

What evidence do we have that Pearce can't be at least
be average defensively in left? We all know he can hit. Seems like a non-issue to me.

I did not know that the Cardinals had "Christian Day".

Instead of railing on about the Cardinals' lack of judgment or ethics, I decided to ponder what Branch Rickey might have thought about all this.  Branch Rickey was of course religious, but also said:
"Ethnic prejudice has no place in sports and baseball must recognize that truth if it is to remain a national game".  I am pretty sure that he wouldn't have had much patience for Berkman's comments, nor for the Cardinals' decision to give him a platform.

Carrera is worth -0.2 bWAR and 0.6 fWAR.
That seems like a big difference.

B-R show 0.6 oWAR and -1.0 dWAR.
Fangraphs shows Off 3.6 and Def -3.2.

Both metrics agree that the defense is bad and the hitting/baserunning is good.
Both metrics apply a scale positional adjustment which is -7.5 normalized to 1350 innings.
I thought maybe the scaling to -20 runs/600 AB was behind it, but BA gives higher number to Donaldson and Smoak.
So, just the way they measure defense?