Late series thread.
Can the streak continue? It looks doubtful. Discuss.
Can the streak continue? It looks doubtful. Discuss.
Rob Refsnyder just pulled from Buffalo game. I assume Tulo is headed for the DL.
Why Rob Refsnyder? I assume Pillar, Carrera, Bautista, Pearce outfield is not a good defense outfield. Can Saunders play decent defense? If Tulo is going to the DL, why put a younger player whose skills have already been assessed in previous MLB seasons. If R.R. has not improved this season, bringing him up is not going to suddenly change his performance...
Cyber, were you able to watch Blue Jays games last year? Saunders was a terrible outfielder.
The Royals just won 9 in a row, against the Red Sox which have the worst record (7-13) since July 4th.
The Yankees are in first place, have made many trades and might be getting a top starter.
The Rays have also made some trades to improve their team. Baltimore just got Hellickson to start for them.
Meanwhile the Jays are trying hard to trade Liriano, Smith and Pearce.
The Yankees are in first place, have made many trades and might be getting a top starter.
The Rays have also made some trades to improve their team. Baltimore just got Hellickson to start for them.
Meanwhile the Jays are trying hard to trade Liriano, Smith and Pearce.
I saw that the Dodgers acquired Luke Farrell for cash from the Royals and I thought, we should have been on that. Then I noticed that he's John Farrell's son, so, yeah, never mind that.
Price is back on the DL, might need TJ and the Boston fans are tired of him.
I've seen posts calling fragile and a clubhouse cancer.
I've seen posts calling fragile and a clubhouse cancer.
"....Meanwhile the Jays are trying hard to trade Liriano, Smith and Pearce..."
To be fair, the Front Office has consistently said that they want to improve for 2017 and 2018. So I wouldn't assume that they are deliberately trading away the players who could contribute in 2017. But if they trade all of those three players -- without getting anything back to help the team this year -- it definitely signals that they've given up on the season. I know some fans would be perfectly fine with giving up on the season, but I don't actually think the team is ready to do that, and it's a bad signal for team morale if you tank a season in July -- unless you're far out of it. The Jays, arguably, still have a conceivable chance at the second WC spot, if they catch fire (which is unlikely of course), so I don't see the Front Office trading all three of those contributing players for future prospects only. I could be wrong.
Of those three players, I think Liriano is the most likely to be traded. High salary, not contributing a lot, can be replaced by Valdez, Bolsinger, Biagini or Rowley. And it's certainly possible that the Jays will trade Smith too, if they get the right offer, since he could be valuable to a contending team. I don't see Pearce being traded. He can contribute in 2018 and he's on a reasonable contract.
Smith is an interesting question. They could trade him now and sign him again in the off-season, as the Yankees did with Chapman. But it depends on the offer that they get for him. He's a significant contributor in 2017 and would be valuable in 2018 if the Jays can bring him back. I think there's a better chance of keeping him for 2018 if he stays on the team for the whole season (with Estrada's signing as the precedent for how to leverage a player's goodwill into a reasonable contract). But I could also easily see the Jays trading him if they get the right offer.
To be fair, the Front Office has consistently said that they want to improve for 2017 and 2018. So I wouldn't assume that they are deliberately trading away the players who could contribute in 2017. But if they trade all of those three players -- without getting anything back to help the team this year -- it definitely signals that they've given up on the season. I know some fans would be perfectly fine with giving up on the season, but I don't actually think the team is ready to do that, and it's a bad signal for team morale if you tank a season in July -- unless you're far out of it. The Jays, arguably, still have a conceivable chance at the second WC spot, if they catch fire (which is unlikely of course), so I don't see the Front Office trading all three of those contributing players for future prospects only. I could be wrong.
Of those three players, I think Liriano is the most likely to be traded. High salary, not contributing a lot, can be replaced by Valdez, Bolsinger, Biagini or Rowley. And it's certainly possible that the Jays will trade Smith too, if they get the right offer, since he could be valuable to a contending team. I don't see Pearce being traded. He can contribute in 2018 and he's on a reasonable contract.
Smith is an interesting question. They could trade him now and sign him again in the off-season, as the Yankees did with Chapman. But it depends on the offer that they get for him. He's a significant contributor in 2017 and would be valuable in 2018 if the Jays can bring him back. I think there's a better chance of keeping him for 2018 if he stays on the team for the whole season (with Estrada's signing as the precedent for how to leverage a player's goodwill into a reasonable contract). But I could also easily see the Jays trading him if they get the right offer.
The Jays are now the first team in the entire league to reach 2 million in attendance this year. And they've announced a further price increase of 7 to 17 per cent for season ticket holders next year. Another reminder that this team is generating a lot of revenue, and they shouldn't be tanking seasons or dismantling entire rosters unless they are willing to jeopardize their fan base.
Raising ticket prices after a losing season is exactly how you jeopardize a fan base. This market has a long history of not putting up with that kind of garbage.
Wait, so you're saying that Toronto sports fans will boycott a losing team if the prices rise? Hmmmm......
I don't blame the front office, but It's still a frustrating situation to be in.
Pearce would be more valuable as a bench player than as a regular.
On a NL team, he could start 2 or 3 times a week and pinch hit the other days.
The Jays are better served giving times to their outfield prospects which should start as soon as possible.
Pearce would be more valuable as a bench player than as a regular.
On a NL team, he could start 2 or 3 times a week and pinch hit the other days.
The Jays are better served giving times to their outfield prospects which should start as soon as possible.
If that team is not the Maple Leafs, absolutely.
I was sitting in a food court, yesterday, on my way to watch giant monsters rampage through the downtown area.
Across from me, there's a couple of teenagers, the guy has a Boston hat, his sister a Yankees hat.
So uncool.
Across from me, there's a couple of teenagers, the guy has a Boston hat, his sister a Yankees hat.
So uncool.
let all our free agents sign with other teams then jack prices. nice.
Tulo to the DL with an ankle injury. Here's an opportunity for Refsnyder. He should get to face his old team in about a week.
Which of our FA's do you want back next year? I'd say there will be plenty of upgrades out there. Now whether we sign those upgrades is another matter altogether.
Refsnyder was promoted, yet he won't be at today's game. Why? He was "held up at the border." I will be curious to see what happened. Did he misplace his passport? Or did the Jays fail to do the paperwork for his work permit? You'd think it would be pretty simple to get a player across the border from Buffalo to Toronto.
So reportedly Refsnyder has now made it through the border, after a long delay, and he'll be in uniform today, but won't be in the starting lineup.
Joe Biagini is an amazing talent, but I think he's a much better Reliever than a Starter. That said, he's a better Starter than any Free Agent Starters the Jays can afford on the Market. The two main way of upgrading here are in-house or via trades. In-House isn't quite there yet and might be more than a year away. I can't see Shapiro and Atkins being willing to meet the cost of making the trades to get better. So Joe Biagini makes the Rotation next year and so might Mike Bolsinger or someone similar. My problem is more optics. They are not improving the Team now.
"he's a better Starter than any Free Agent Starters the Jays can afford on the Market."
Jays can afford any FA starter. They have the resources.
Jays can afford any FA starter. They have the resources.
Walk to the back-up catcher, followed by Barney and Goins doubles, score 2 runs. I believe that's like hitting a pretty good trifecta at the track.
Refsnyder has played right-field and seemingly was pretty decent there.
The Blue Jays were dead last in MLB team position player fWAR entering today's game, just behind the Padres. The eight leaders were Smoak, Donaldson, Martin, Pillar, Carrera, Travis, Stroman (.2) and Dwight Smith (.2).
You'd think it would be pretty simple to get a player across the border from Buffalo to Toronto.
Unless the border guard is a Red Sox fan.
According to Wikipedia, Refsnyder "was born Kim Jung-tae in Seoul, South Korea. When he was five months old, Rob was adopted by Jane and Clint Refsnyder, a couple of German and Irish descent from Laguna Hills, California.
Now you know!
Unless the border guard is a Red Sox fan.
According to Wikipedia, Refsnyder "was born Kim Jung-tae in Seoul, South Korea. When he was five months old, Rob was adopted by Jane and Clint Refsnyder, a couple of German and Irish descent from Laguna Hills, California.
Now you know!
With Refsnyder on the bench, Barney found his hitting stroke. Funny how that works out.
It's not secret that Pearce's defense cancels out his offensive contribution.
bWAR gives Alford 0.1 WAR despite an OPS+ of -4 while Pearce gets -0.3.
Then Bautista is below replacement value at -0.5 WAR and Barney and Goins are -1.1/-1.0.
Just put some young guys in the outfield and as utility players.
bWAR gives Alford 0.1 WAR despite an OPS+ of -4 while Pearce gets -0.3.
Then Bautista is below replacement value at -0.5 WAR and Barney and Goins are -1.1/-1.0.
Just put some young guys in the outfield and as utility players.
He is no more fragile than any other pitcher. As for being called a club house cancer-- I'd like to point out that he is not a scrappy white guy and it is Boston and the Boston media. We all read the feel good stories from his time here, I'm more inclined to believe those are more representative of his personality or at least his personality before he was subjected to the non-sense of Red Sox nation.
Interesting lineup today. Carrera leads off and plays right-field. Martin is at third base batting second, and Refsnyder plays second base and bats ninth. Bautista, Donaldson and Barney get the day off.
Bautista, no spring chicken, leads the league in games played. And it can't be to have kept his bat in the lineup. A once great player has posted one great month this season, and three months well below replacement level (during which his AVG has topped out at .200).
And speaking of once great players, what is Scioscia to do with Albert Pujols? The future inner circle Hall of Fame player is hitting worse than Pillar and Tulowitzki, yet continues to bat 3rd because, well, he's Albert Pujols. You don't just bat him 9th (or relegate him to the bench).
Worse yet, this is a problem that's not going away. He's owed 114MM for the next 4 years. Maybe he can bounce back and be a merely heavily overpaid 1-WAR DH, but sheesh, what an albatross. The organization is going to have to eat a lot of that contract at some point. It will be interesting to see how long they intend to wait to find out where Pujols' true level seems to now be.
I ran a Play Index to see how many players at age 36, played outfield almost every day and hit well. I used a minimum number of games at 145 with 90% in the outfield and an OPS+ of 130 as a minimum. The answer was 10- Ty Cobb, Barry Bonds, Fred Clarke, Jose Cruz Sr. (of course), Hank Aaron (naturally), Bob Johnson, Babe Ruth, Dave Winfield, Cy Williams and Reggie Jackson.
The Angels put Jackson in the outfield most of the time in 1982, but he had spent a lot of time at DH with the Yankees in the years prior. In the post-war period, the only players who were regularly doing it were Cruz Sr, Aaron, Bonds and Winfield. You'd have to say that the odds were pretty severely against this working out well. Winfield's name had me thinking of Dewey Evans. Dewey had a great year at age 36, playing 84 games in right-field, 64 at first base and 6 DHing. He had been even better at 35 and spent more time at first base than in right-field. Dewey was, of course, a lot better with the glove than Bautista.
The Angels put Jackson in the outfield most of the time in 1982, but he had spent a lot of time at DH with the Yankees in the years prior. In the post-war period, the only players who were regularly doing it were Cruz Sr, Aaron, Bonds and Winfield. You'd have to say that the odds were pretty severely against this working out well. Winfield's name had me thinking of Dewey Evans. Dewey had a great year at age 36, playing 84 games in right-field, 64 at first base and 6 DHing. He had been even better at 35 and spent more time at first base than in right-field. Dewey was, of course, a lot better with the glove than Bautista.
I knew that Roberto Clemente had been great at the end of his career, and I wondered what happened with him. Answer: 108 games played at age 35 and 132 at age 36 (when he won a Gold Glove and the Pirates won the World Series).
Two factors keeping Bautista in the lineup in general and in the outfield in specific have been (a) the team often not having healthy, alternate options and (b) the log jam at 1B/DH, exacerbated (for wont of a better word) by Smoak's unforeseen ascension to fulltime player.
But now that Pearce is healthy again, and in light of Bautista's now two-month long slump, you wonder what has motivated Gibbons' reluctance to rest Bautista. Perhaps he is deferring to Bautista, allowing Bautista to push for continued playing time. Maybe it has something to do with the playing time proviso in the vesting agreement in Bautista's complicated contract (which should all be rendered moot since the organization will surely not excercise their half of the 2018 mutual option). I'd really like to know how today's outfield configuration isn't one that we are seeing once a week. And who knows, maybe this is the start of what's to come in the season's final third.
Of course all my questions are irrelevant when even the seemingly sunny and optimistic Fangraphs projection model has the team's playoff chances at around 7%. It probably matters little which replacement level players are getting the playing time.
Another option is that Gibbons believes that Bautista is his best OF.
There was nothing unforeseen about the Jays 1B/DH logjam. The Front Office chose to start the year with 4 DHs/1B and 2 OF. In my view, Gibbons gets a pass on a big part of the usage issue here as he was simply playing the bad hand he was dealt. Over the last 30-40 games though, the playing time suggests that Gibbons thinks his best OF options are 1 Baustista, 2 Pillar 3 Pearce and 4 Carrera.
well, bautista surely represents the best shot at gettijg the kind of hotstreak needed to dig out of this.
Tulo has suffered ligament damage, wonder if this means he's out the rest of the year?
playing time suggests that Gibbons thinks his best OF options are 1 Baustista, 2 Pillar 3 Pearce and 4 Carrera.
And that may well be. But that doesn't mean that #1 and #2 don't need rest.
Uglyone, I think that's another way of saying that Gibbons believes that Bautista is his best OF:) That also intersects with the definition of insanity:)
Chuck I absolutely agree about the need for rest. I am not trying to rationally explain the usage, merely point out what the data appears to tell us about Gibbons' views on the relative merits of his OF
Probably means that Gibbons believes Bautista is the one most likely to perform well offensively given his May and his past numbers. Nigel I understand your frustration with the OF defense, but the Jays are the worst offensive team in baseball. Pompey is still injured, Alford is recovering and there isn't anyone else really ready in the minors. I mean sure they can run a Pillar/Carrera/Smith OF but I don't think Gibbons is willing to accept the guarantee of offensive suckage that lineup brings. And it's not like Carrera or Smith are good defensively. With this team struggling to get 3-4 runs in any game, they need to keep in any batter capable of being close to a league average hitter.
Maybe they were hoping Pompey would play a lot of outfield.
They probably were. The funny thing with Bautista as an OF is this is his best season in the field in a while. It is just his offense has taken another big drop. Pair last years offense with this years defense for Jose and I think we'd all be pretty happy with it.
The funny thing with Bautista as an OF is this is his best season in the field in a while.
His defense may be better this year than last, but it's certainly not very good. He needs to hit a lot to carry that poor glove, the same way Pearce has to to warrant playing LF.
Bautista has been a great Blue Jay and I take no joy in eulogizing him, but I think the man is done. I hope he proves me wrong and gets hot again but Father Time is a merciless bastard.
Carrera and Smith are not good defensively, but Bautista and Pearce are very bad.
Bautista has an OPS+ of 89. Pearce is closer to average at 96.
I think they still believe they need to rely on homeruns to score runs and Bautista and Pearce have a history of hitting homeruns. Bautista will finish the year with about 20 HRs but would have needed at least 40 to cover for his defense.
Bautista has an OPS+ of 89. Pearce is closer to average at 96.
I think they still believe they need to rely on homeruns to score runs and Bautista and Pearce have a history of hitting homeruns. Bautista will finish the year with about 20 HRs but would have needed at least 40 to cover for his defense.
Kasi,, I think you underestimate the harm done by Bautista's and Pearce's defence and baserunning. But my lack of comprehension is more narrow than you suggest. In the last 30-40 games I think it obvious that the Pearce/Pillar/Bautista OF has proven to be a disaster. Carrera has played well this year (I'm no fan of his but facts are facts). Why wouldn't you get him in the lineup more often than he has? I really can't think of a single rationale explanation for that. I might vote for your Smith/Pillar/Carrera OF (on occasion) but I can see several rationale reasons for not doing this - not the least of which would be the optics of having to admit that the offseason plan wasn't a good one. So, I have no expectations of a drastic move like that happening
I understand why the Angels gave this massive contract to Albert Pujols.
It was a bad mistake, but I understand why they did it.
I do not understand why they signed Jesse Chavez to be one of their starter.
It was a bad mistake, but I understand why they did it.
I do not understand why they signed Jesse Chavez to be one of their starter.
So much for my over-optimistic Valdez 2018 visions.
The problem with a Plllar/smith/Zeke OF is that 2/3 of them aren't good hitters. As for Carrera he's just not an everyday player. Part of that reason his numbers are good is because he hasn't played against LHP much, who he's awful against. But yeah I think he should be in there most of the time against RHP.
As for defense Carrera is just as bad as Jose and Pearce is worse. Pearce and Carrera are both fine at running and Bautista is bad. My point was that Gibbons is putting out the lineup best able to score 3-4 runs. It's not like this is a team built to win with pitching and defense. Our pitchers have struggled or been hurt and every defender on the team but Martin and Jose has gotten worse defensively.
Given Jose and Morales having different splits vs L/R I'd consider having Jose sit out some vs LHP in order to improve defense and give him rest and have Morales do the same against RHP. That would give Zeke a few more starts but regardless Jose and Pearce are going to be in the OF.
As for defense Carrera is just as bad as Jose and Pearce is worse. Pearce and Carrera are both fine at running and Bautista is bad. My point was that Gibbons is putting out the lineup best able to score 3-4 runs. It's not like this is a team built to win with pitching and defense. Our pitchers have struggled or been hurt and every defender on the team but Martin and Jose has gotten worse defensively.
Given Jose and Morales having different splits vs L/R I'd consider having Jose sit out some vs LHP in order to improve defense and give him rest and have Morales do the same against RHP. That would give Zeke a few more starts but regardless Jose and Pearce are going to be in the OF.
I do not understand why they signed Jesse Chavez to be one of their starter.
They didn't. He was 6th on the depth chart. He replaced Garrett Richards who was DL'd.
They didn't. He was 6th on the depth chart. He replaced Garrett Richards who was DL'd.
D. J. Peterson DFAed by the Mariners looks interesting. Still got 2 option years.
His numbers don't look that great for the PCL and his defense is not great enough to stick at 3B long.
Still, he was rushed to AA at 22 in 2014 and hit 31 HR between A+ and AA.
His numbers don't look that great for the PCL and his defense is not great enough to stick at 3B long.
Still, he was rushed to AA at 22 in 2014 and hit 31 HR between A+ and AA.
I'm wrong. Chavez got almost $6 million as the Angels 5th starter, Richards made one start before he was DL'd.
Shannon Stewart previously had the dubious honour of having the worst OF arm in Jays history. Rivalled only by Revere. But Pearce has them beaten by quite a bit.
"Bautista has been a great Blue Jay and I take no joy in eulogizing him, but I think the man is done. I hope he proves me wrong and gets hot again but Father Time is a merciless bastard."
I too think Bautista is finished. I wonder if he's even in the majors at this time next year.
I too think Bautista is finished. I wonder if he's even in the majors at this time next year.
Mike, I think Willie Mays' 1968 season should be in your list as well. He was 37 years old, played 148 games, 141 of them in CF and 1 at 1B, and he put up an OPS+ of 156.
This is why I was advocating for the Jays to sign Rich Hill in the off-season as extra starting pitching depth. Naturally, I came under fire for that position, the Bauxite party line being that the Jays had ample starting pitching to compete for a playoff spot.
Hill would have been the Jays second-best starter this season. He's also earning less than Bautista this year.
Hill would have been the Jays second-best starter this season. He's also earning less than Bautista this year.
scottt,
Peterson looks AAAA to me. He hasn't hit really, except at High Desert, which is a serious launchpad, and has played in good hitting environments throughout. If he can't really field 3b, what is his value, AAA depth?I think he would be hard pressed to OPS 700 with the Jays and be part of the log-jam at DH, while offering only a little bench versatility.
Peterson looks AAAA to me. He hasn't hit really, except at High Desert, which is a serious launchpad, and has played in good hitting environments throughout. If he can't really field 3b, what is his value, AAA depth?I think he would be hard pressed to OPS 700 with the Jays and be part of the log-jam at DH, while offering only a little bench versatility.
I wonder if he's even in the majors at this time next year.
I agree. I think it's the rare ex-star that is willing to hang around on the fringes, in a reduced capacity and at a humbling pay rate. Rickey Henderson and Vince Carter come to mind. I imagine there are others.
they chose 3 ~$13m SP in Happ estrada and liriano. they were never going to add another in hill.
A AAAA 3B is exactly what they need given that Donaldson plays almost every day and they don't have a substitute to call up whenever the Bringer of Rain is on the DL. Who knows, this could be another late bloomer. Seems like he would cost next to nothing unless the Yankees or Red Sox decide to try him up.
That was the biggest 9th-inning comeback victory in Jays history. They had overcome a 5-run deficit in the 9th before, but had never before come back from 6 runs down.
It was also the first walkoff grand slam in Jays history when the team was trailing by 3 runs.
In fact, of the four grand-slam walkoffs in the entire history of the team, two of those four were hit by Steve Pearce in the past four days.
In a gloomy season, that was a lot of fun.
It was also the first walkoff grand slam in Jays history when the team was trailing by 3 runs.
In fact, of the four grand-slam walkoffs in the entire history of the team, two of those four were hit by Steve Pearce in the past four days.
In a gloomy season, that was a lot of fun.
Apparently, Pearce is the only player in MLB history with two walk off grand slams...in his career. They've come in a span of 4 days.
Pearce's achievement was not quite as historic as first reported -- but he is only the 3rd player in major-league history to hit two walkoff grand slams in the same season.
The others were Cy Williams (1926-PHI) and Jim Presley (1986-SEA).
The others were Cy Williams (1926-PHI) and Jim Presley (1986-SEA).
wonder if Pearce will still be a Jay tomorrow at this time? Would certainly be an example of selling high if he isn't. Liriano and Smith have both improved their trade value this past week. I will be disappointed if they are not moved. I could go either way with Pearce....only if it is a good return.
I wouldn't trade Pearce. Since returning from injury, he has a slash line of .313/.378/.527 over the past 33 games. Sure, that's an arbitrary sample, but I think it's more realistic than his bizarre slash line of .167/.211/.167 for the entire month of April. I'd tend to write off his April performance as an anomaly and focus on his hitting since then. This team is desperate for hitting -- both for 2017 and for 2018 -- and they just can't afford to trade one of their best hitters, even if his defence isn't exactly stellar.
I really hope Pearce isn't traded. If he got 450-500 AB's next year as the near everyday 1B he could be an extremely useful player.
Overshadowed by all the excitement: Matt Dermody gets his first career victory. And reduces his ERA from 67.50 to 12.27 in just one game.
His reward? Likely demotion to Buffalo to make room for another fresh arm.
His reward? Likely demotion to Buffalo to make room for another fresh arm.
The WPA on Pearce's grand slam was .794 according to fangraphs. I'll guess that that hit had the highest WPA of the year.
Anthony Alford homered, doubled and singled in New Hampshire's win. I imagine that he will get a September callup at a minimum.
Anthony Alford homered, doubled and singled in New Hampshire's win. I imagine that he will get a September callup at a minimum.
If anything, the Jays should figure out a way to move Morales and have Pearce/Smoak share 1B/DH next season. Pearce at $6M is great value, and if he was playing 1B instead of LF, then that would be more evident. I mean if they get a good offer for Pearce right now, then he's definitely movable, but he's an asset for next season.
I'm warming up to the suggestion made here recently of Morales for Kennedy in the off-season. The Jays could use 190 mediocre innings regardless of which direction they are going, and Morales is easily replaced internally by Pearce and probably unmovable to any other team except the Royals (and even that is questionable).
I'm warming up to the suggestion made here recently of Morales for Kennedy in the off-season. The Jays could use 190 mediocre innings regardless of which direction they are going, and Morales is easily replaced internally by Pearce and probably unmovable to any other team except the Royals (and even that is questionable).
" Sure, that's an arbitrary sample, but I think it's more realistic than his bizarre slash line of .167/.211/.167 for the entire month of April."
"If he got 450-500 AB's next year as the near everyday 1B he could be an extremely useful player."
"Pearce at $6M is great value, and if he was playing 1B instead of LF, then that would be more evident."
At the risk of being a one note Charlie and acknowledging I am apparently the lone Pearce skeptic, these types of quotes are what I find odd. I can't remember a non-prospect Jay that has moved the Box to so readily ignore any performance that doesn't jive with the notion that the player may not be as great as a couple of abbreviated performances may have otherwise indicated. I loved his heroics this past week and will heartily cheer for the man to succeed in every plate appearance, but those said heroics have pushed his seasonal line to a 105 wRC+ and might have nudged him out of negative WAR territory. So no, at present Pearce is not great value at any cost and he would need to play somewhere up the middle for that batting line to be useful, regardless of whether he somehow managed to play more than he has in any season of his career, at the age of 35.His negative WAR results from him being miscast as an outfielder. He's a better hitter that Bautista or Morales right now.
Refsnyder looks pretty decent with the bat and can probably play the outfield better than Bautista or Pearce. I wouldn't mind finding out after Travis returns.
Refsnyder looks pretty decent with the bat and can probably play the outfield better than Bautista or Pearce. I wouldn't mind finding out after Travis returns.
Mike, if Pearce DH'd all year, the positional penalty would be almost equal to the negative fielding, no? His WAR wouldn't change much.
Nope. And if he played first base even some of the time, he would be way ahead.
Not to mention that pitchers would be much happier!
Not to mention that pitchers would be much happier!
For a full season in left field, Pearce is about -13 and the position penalty is about-6. If he DHs 80% of the time and plays first base the rest, his position penalty is about -10.
Even in the last 7 games, Morales has hit better than Pearce.
Higher OBP, higher slugging. Pitchers are more likely to challenge Pearce. That's not really something I'd bank on.
Higher OBP, higher slugging. Pitchers are more likely to challenge Pearce. That's not really something I'd bank on.
Actually, the numbers are better than that. For a 150G/550PA season, Pearce is actually -16 in left field with a -6 position adjustment.
Pearce has been a better hitter than Morales over 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years or 5 years.
His bizzare April slash line relates to his uppercut swing. When he's constantly on the top of the ball, he pounds it into the ground with awful results. He'll get hot. He'll get cold. He'll get hurt. He's 34 and his career OPS is .772.
Pearce has posted better numbers as a platoon player than Morales as a full-time player.
Pearce has 350 hits in the last 5 years. Morales has 654.
Pearce has 350 hits in the last 5 years. Morales has 654.
The Jays have several players who play they outfield better than Bautista or Pearce.
They play when Bautista or Pearce are on the DL.
What's really needed is someone who play 2B better than Barney or Goins.
They play when Bautista or Pearce are on the DL.
What's really needed is someone who play 2B better than Barney or Goins.
I'm not quite sure I'm following the logic here. If the point is that Morales is a better offensive player than Pearce then I think that's debatable. I'd lean Pearce in that discussion but I can see the argument for Morales. But why would you prefer Morales over Pearce when Pearce can actually play a defensive position well (1B) and is only bad rather than castostrophically bad on the base paths? Oh, and Pearce makes half as much. If you were choosing between Pearce or Morales on next year's team I don't see a way to prefer Morales. But in the bigger picture, I just hope that only two of our current 4 DH's/1B are in the lineup on a regular basis next year.
FG positional adjustments are -7.5 LF, -12.5 1B, -17.5 DH. So a 20/80 split 1B/DH would be -16.5.
I don't think the difference between Smoak and Pearce is that big when you take into account scooping. Smoak does have five inches on him. Sure Pearce is likely a bit better at 1b, but not by that much. Bautista will be gone but I don't see them getting rid of one of the other three. I might be wrong though.
Pearce has been about a 1 WAR player since May (144 wRC+ in 156 PA, with a 131 wRC+ in 115 PA against RHP over that span), and that's with bad defense in left. He is not as valuable a player as he should be playing LF, which is the issue.
If I were to guess, I'd say Smoak/Pearce/Morales will all be back next season, but I'm still hoping for a Morales trade. Even if he gets back up to a 110 wRC+, it's still not worth having the DH spot tied up to one player, especially when Donaldson could use days at DH to keep his body fresh all year.
If I were to guess, I'd say Smoak/Pearce/Morales will all be back next season, but I'm still hoping for a Morales trade. Even if he gets back up to a 110 wRC+, it's still not worth having the DH spot tied up to one player, especially when Donaldson could use days at DH to keep his body fresh all year.
Hypobole, using purely fangraphs' figures for Pearce, he's -17.5/150G in left-field. The difference between the LF and 20/80 1B and DH adjustments according to fangraphs is 9/150. It's a big difference, and I actually think that it understates the difference.
I don't think Pearce is a great player, but I think that he is still serviceable at a 1B/DH. In his career, he's hit ..261/.342/.465 while playing first base, .265/.345/.442 while DHing and .249/.321/.439 while playing left-field. If you just let him do what he does well, he'll contribute usefully and easily give you $6 million in value. The club can then focus its attention on getting outfielders who can play the position and middle infielders who can make an overall contribution.
I don't think Pearce is a great player, but I think that he is still serviceable at a 1B/DH. In his career, he's hit ..261/.342/.465 while playing first base, .265/.345/.442 while DHing and .249/.321/.439 while playing left-field. If you just let him do what he does well, he'll contribute usefully and easily give you $6 million in value. The club can then focus its attention on getting outfielders who can play the position and middle infielders who can make an overall contribution.
No trade activity so far. The offers they got must have been underwhelming.
Less than 7 hours to go.
The Royals were interested in Liriano but they have acquired 3 pitchers and Melky Cabrera.
Cabrera is probably their new DH.
Less than 7 hours to go.
The Royals were interested in Liriano but they have acquired 3 pitchers and Melky Cabrera.
Cabrera is probably their new DH.
I've always been a big supporter of Pearce; the ball just seems to jump off his bat (noticeably more than others) when he barrels it. Morales has to be the one to go in the off-season. Keeping Pearce as the DH for next year makes some sense; he'll stay healthier and probably hit more than Morales has this year. A .780 OPS certainly isn't great for a DH, but I'm he might thrive without having to play the field.
That would be my preference as well. As for getting rid of Morales, I'm down for that, but how? Would anyone actually take him in a trade? I assume the Jays wouldn't just release him at eat the rest of the contract, since it's still two years and $23M after this season.
Plenty of marginal assets have been dealt in the past week, and while the returns aren't dazzling, only the JD Martinez return seems light. If the club doesn't have some moves up their sleeves, they are taking the worst route possible.
Trading is a negotiation, not a GM sitting by the phone waiting for 'good offers'. McBroom for Refsnyder was a low-key, creative, worthwhile move. I'm hoping we see a few more of those up our sleeves. Smith and Pearce are precisely the sort of talents that get dealt about now, and trading both opens up spots for guys like Chris Rowley and Dwight Smith, saves a bit of money and adds a bit of prospect depth.
The Royals just traded for Melky Cabrerra, who costs more and is worth less than Zeke. They traded their 6th best prospect AJ Puckett for him (now 25th in a stacked White Sox org). Low upside guy, but he'd fit nicely into an org with a lack of advanced starting dept, and we would have been able to get more for Zeke -under team control for two more years, his total cost over that time will be close to what Melky gets for the rest of the year from the Royals.
We aren't contending, we aren't positioning our team for next year or evaluating younger players, we aren't saving funds - what exactly are we doing?
Trading is a negotiation, not a GM sitting by the phone waiting for 'good offers'. McBroom for Refsnyder was a low-key, creative, worthwhile move. I'm hoping we see a few more of those up our sleeves. Smith and Pearce are precisely the sort of talents that get dealt about now, and trading both opens up spots for guys like Chris Rowley and Dwight Smith, saves a bit of money and adds a bit of prospect depth.
The Royals just traded for Melky Cabrerra, who costs more and is worth less than Zeke. They traded their 6th best prospect AJ Puckett for him (now 25th in a stacked White Sox org). Low upside guy, but he'd fit nicely into an org with a lack of advanced starting dept, and we would have been able to get more for Zeke -under team control for two more years, his total cost over that time will be close to what Melky gets for the rest of the year from the Royals.
We aren't contending, we aren't positioning our team for next year or evaluating younger players, we aren't saving funds - what exactly are we doing?
"- what exactly are we doing?"
unfortunatly, probably nothing.
unfortunatly, probably nothing.
Morales is probably worth about $5 million per year as a Pearce-like player (but without the defensive ability at first base). He's been below replacement level this year, but used properly he does have some value. You've got to pinch-run for him a lot and you don't want to see him up there with a runner on first and less than two out. Batting sixth is probably ideal because you avoid that situation in the first inning.
If you eat $15 million of his salary and get a lower level prospect, you're probably square.
If you eat $15 million of his salary and get a lower level prospect, you're probably square.
Blair was reporting that the Jays are a lot of teams 3/4 options for trades. And it is a buyers market. Which means sadly our guys have very little value, unless you want to trade the guys no one wants to trade like Osuna or Sanchez. It is what it is, we just have a lot of old bad players no one wants. And it doesn't seem like a big market either for relievers now that Washington has stabilized their pen. I still expect 1-3 to be traded but for fairly minimal returns.
Also note that even if trades don't happen today many of the Jays people want to trade can be easily moved in August.
Maybe Dayton Moore doesn't think Melky is worth less than Zeke.
Lee May died yesterday. I remember the 1970 World Series, in which May played a big part. Mostly, I remember him absolutely killing the ball with Brooks Robinson robbing him on multiple occasions.
The Orioles that year had a great defence with Brooks at third, Belanger at short and Blair in center the stars. With that in mind, I had a quick look back at the play-by-play of May's at-bats in the World Series courtesy of BBRef:
Game 1- May singles in the 1st inning off Jim Palmer, hits a 2 run homer off him in the 3rd inning to make it 3-0 Reds, and then grounds out to Brooks and to Belanger later in a 4-3 Reds loss
Game 2- May doubles in 2 off Mike Cuellar in the first inning and scores as the Reds take a 3-0 lead, then grounds into a 5-4-3, flies out to Blair and grounds out to Belanger in a 6-5 Reds loss
Game 3- May strikes out in the 2nd off Dave McNally, grounds out to Brooks, walks and singles in a 9-3 Reds loss
Game 4- May walks to lead off the second against Jim Palmer and scores, singles in a run in the third, grounds out to Belanger and then hits a game-winning 3 run homer in the top of the 8th off Eddie Watt who had just replaced Palmer with a 5-3 lead
Game 5- doubled and scored off Mike Cuellar in the first as the Reds took a 3-0 lead, grounded out to Brooks, flew out to Blair in deep centre-field and struck out in a 9-3 Reds loss
May hit .389/.450/.833 for the series, and it would have been series for the ages had the defence not been as good as it was. Here's a link to one of Brooks' plays.
The Orioles that year had a great defence with Brooks at third, Belanger at short and Blair in center the stars. With that in mind, I had a quick look back at the play-by-play of May's at-bats in the World Series courtesy of BBRef:
Game 1- May singles in the 1st inning off Jim Palmer, hits a 2 run homer off him in the 3rd inning to make it 3-0 Reds, and then grounds out to Brooks and to Belanger later in a 4-3 Reds loss
Game 2- May doubles in 2 off Mike Cuellar in the first inning and scores as the Reds take a 3-0 lead, then grounds into a 5-4-3, flies out to Blair and grounds out to Belanger in a 6-5 Reds loss
Game 3- May strikes out in the 2nd off Dave McNally, grounds out to Brooks, walks and singles in a 9-3 Reds loss
Game 4- May walks to lead off the second against Jim Palmer and scores, singles in a run in the third, grounds out to Belanger and then hits a game-winning 3 run homer in the top of the 8th off Eddie Watt who had just replaced Palmer with a 5-3 lead
Game 5- doubled and scored off Mike Cuellar in the first as the Reds took a 3-0 lead, grounded out to Brooks, flew out to Blair in deep centre-field and struck out in a 9-3 Reds loss
May hit .389/.450/.833 for the series, and it would have been series for the ages had the defence not been as good as it was. Here's a link to one of Brooks' plays.
Melky has a long track record as a good hitter and Carrera doesn't. Also Zeke has splits while Melky doesn't. It's nice to have a player who hits equally well against both sides.
"Blair was reporting that the Jays are a lot of teams 3/4 options for trades"
Kasi, my point is that the FO is at fault for this. They were vague in direction in July and remain tentative in taking risks, so here we are, likely looking to deploy the 'we just didn't get the offers we liked' excuse, when teams are clearly succeeding in moving all sorts of marginal talents: Melky, Lucroy, Nunez, Garcia, Hellickson, etc. We have these types of players, and even if people are unhappy with the prospect return, there is value in moving players, freeing up salary and auditioning youth. Not to mention that there has been plenty of discussion around Smith, Liriano and Estrada. We've just missed the boat on moving them. Yes, lots of guys could be moved in August. The general rule of thumb is that the less time you get the player, the less valuable they are, but it is possible that you get a better deal for a Liriano / Estrada in August. Failing to move Smith would be a clear fail IMO. The FO claimed that Goins had value. Zeke appears not to be on the market but could help a bunch of teams. Mike Green outlined a fair exchange for Morales above. Dave Cameron called Danny Barnes 'the sneakiest bullpen upgrade'. I could see a scenario where we dealt Martin to Colorado, picked up salary, and got value back.
'Maybe Dayton Moore doesn't think Melky is worth less than Zeke.' Yup. Or maybe Atkins simply wasn't looking to deal Zeke. I look at Melky's track record and I prefer Zeke, but that's not a universal take. Fangraphs gives Zeke the slight edge in fWAR, bWAR has melky clearly better. Presumably, KC would value the years of control and salary of Zeke. We can debate individual scenarios forever, but the results for our FO, on the whole, are a fail thus far in terms of retooling.
This trade deadline outcome so far is exactly what I expected and feared two weeks ago. The FO seems happy with the crowds and being a longshot WC contender. Personally, I'm tired of watching older, unathletic players in ill-suited defensive positions ground into DPs, or botch basic OF communication.
I really do miss the creativity of 'ninja' AA. 'Librarian' Atkins just doesn't have the same appeal.
Kasi, my point is that the FO is at fault for this. They were vague in direction in July and remain tentative in taking risks, so here we are, likely looking to deploy the 'we just didn't get the offers we liked' excuse, when teams are clearly succeeding in moving all sorts of marginal talents: Melky, Lucroy, Nunez, Garcia, Hellickson, etc. We have these types of players, and even if people are unhappy with the prospect return, there is value in moving players, freeing up salary and auditioning youth. Not to mention that there has been plenty of discussion around Smith, Liriano and Estrada. We've just missed the boat on moving them. Yes, lots of guys could be moved in August. The general rule of thumb is that the less time you get the player, the less valuable they are, but it is possible that you get a better deal for a Liriano / Estrada in August. Failing to move Smith would be a clear fail IMO. The FO claimed that Goins had value. Zeke appears not to be on the market but could help a bunch of teams. Mike Green outlined a fair exchange for Morales above. Dave Cameron called Danny Barnes 'the sneakiest bullpen upgrade'. I could see a scenario where we dealt Martin to Colorado, picked up salary, and got value back.
'Maybe Dayton Moore doesn't think Melky is worth less than Zeke.' Yup. Or maybe Atkins simply wasn't looking to deal Zeke. I look at Melky's track record and I prefer Zeke, but that's not a universal take. Fangraphs gives Zeke the slight edge in fWAR, bWAR has melky clearly better. Presumably, KC would value the years of control and salary of Zeke. We can debate individual scenarios forever, but the results for our FO, on the whole, are a fail thus far in terms of retooling.
This trade deadline outcome so far is exactly what I expected and feared two weeks ago. The FO seems happy with the crowds and being a longshot WC contender. Personally, I'm tired of watching older, unathletic players in ill-suited defensive positions ground into DPs, or botch basic OF communication.
I really do miss the creativity of 'ninja' AA. 'Librarian' Atkins just doesn't have the same appeal.
They could have packaged Pearce and Smith to the Royals if they wanted a DH and bullpen help.
Plan C must be a reference to Cleveland asking for Bautista.
It will be downheartening if they can't trade anyone away to make room for younger guys.
Plan C must be a reference to Cleveland asking for Bautista.
It will be downheartening if they can't trade anyone away to make room for younger guys.
Apparently the Royals intend to play Cabrera in right-field. I'm not sure how that will work out- it's quite spacious in Kansas City.
I really do miss the creativity of 'ninja' AA.
What deadline deals did the "ninja" make? Lots of buying. I don't remember him selling whatsoever, even the year Rajai walked as an FA.
What deadline deals did the "ninja" make? Lots of buying. I don't remember him selling whatsoever, even the year Rajai walked as an FA.
Alex Gordon is doing very well defensively but hasn't hit much. I guess they'll try mix and match.
That's because the free agent compensation deals were much better back then.
AA would acquire players just to let them become free agents.
AA would acquire players just to let them become free agents.
Morales will be easier to trade in a year or 2.
Pearce should have brought something valuable back. Could be a lost opportunity.
Pearce should have brought something valuable back. Could be a lost opportunity.
A FO cannot afford too many bad seasons. This year will be a bad season in the won/lost record. But it is a good revenue season.
If next year is a bad won/lost season, I fully expect revenues to go down.
If next year is a bad won/lost season, I fully expect revenues to go down.
ideally they would eat morales' contract and get a B prospect back from a team in desperate need of power like boston.
"Morales will be easier to trade in a year or 2.
Pearce should have brought something valuable back. Could be a lost opportunity."
Lucas Duda brought back a nothing relief prospect. JD Martinez brought back a couple of mediocre prospects. The market for hit only players is non-existent right now. Morales will only be tradable if the Jays eat major salary and Pearce would get something minor back.
Pearce should have brought something valuable back. Could be a lost opportunity."
Lucas Duda brought back a nothing relief prospect. JD Martinez brought back a couple of mediocre prospects. The market for hit only players is non-existent right now. Morales will only be tradable if the Jays eat major salary and Pearce would get something minor back.
There is very little youth to audition at the big leagues this year. Maybe Rowley and Alford again. That's about it. And like Scott I'm unsure what bringing AA into it does, since he never made sales at the trade deadline. Look if you're happy to trade one of these guys for some teams 25th ranked prospect than fine. But those deals can be made in August just as easily. Now obviously something is better than nothing and I'd be upset if we can't sell any of our FAs. Smith should be easy enough, but there is serious questions on the worth of our other FAs.
"...those deals can be made in August just as easily...."
No, not "just as easily." The rules in August are much more complex. You've got to put the player on revocable waivers. You can't negotiate with every team. You must negotiate only with the teams that claim that player -- beginning with the lowest-ranked team. If you don't trade him, you can't put him on revocable waivers again. So there are a host of restrictions. Sure, those restrictions can often be overcome, but the trading team certainly has less flexibility and fewer options for finding a trading partner. So, yes, a player can be traded in August, but it would be misleading to suggest that it can be done "just as easily."
No, not "just as easily." The rules in August are much more complex. You've got to put the player on revocable waivers. You can't negotiate with every team. You must negotiate only with the teams that claim that player -- beginning with the lowest-ranked team. If you don't trade him, you can't put him on revocable waivers again. So there are a host of restrictions. Sure, those restrictions can often be overcome, but the trading team certainly has less flexibility and fewer options for finding a trading partner. So, yes, a player can be traded in August, but it would be misleading to suggest that it can be done "just as easily."
FWIW, we nothing for Rajai when he walked.
And yeah, dumping Morales should be priority #1.
And yeah, dumping Morales should be priority #1.
"Keeping Pearce as the DH for next year makes some sense; he'll stay healthier and probably hit more than Morales has this year."
I wouldn't assume that based on his history. I far as I can tell, Pearce has only ever been injured playing in the field once, his remaining (long) list of maladies coming on the basepaths or with a bat in his hands. The man makes Tulo look like an Ironman.
"What deadline deals did the "ninja" make? Lots of buying. I don't remember him selling whatsoever, even the year Rajai walked as an FA."
When the Jays were last place in 2012, he traded 5 prospects for Happ, and then traded Snider and Thames for relievers a week later. The following season, when the Jays were last place again, he sold Bonifacio to the Royals (in August).
So yeah, I miss those exciting days too.
When the Jays were last place in 2012, he traded 5 prospects for Happ, and then traded Snider and Thames for relievers a week later. The following season, when the Jays were last place again, he sold Bonifacio to the Royals (in August).
So yeah, I miss those exciting days too.
Looks like Liriano has been traded to the Astros, pending the physicals. They're acquiring him as a reliever, so I wouldn't expect much of a return. I hope the Jays eat the money, in exchange for getting a better prospect.
Eating money on an upcoming free agent is one thing, but eating the 2 years on the contract of Morales does not make sense. The front office obviously values having a switch hitter or 2. I've seen very little interest for Morales or Pearce.
The best place to rest Donaldson in on the bench. His OPS+ is at 108. The problem with resting Donaldson is not the DH, it's the lack of quality backup to put at 3B. Martin with an OPS+ of 96 is not the solution.
The Red Sox are looking at Alonso who has an OPS+ of 143.
The best place to rest Donaldson in on the bench. His OPS+ is at 108. The problem with resting Donaldson is not the DH, it's the lack of quality backup to put at 3B. Martin with an OPS+ of 96 is not the solution.
The Red Sox are looking at Alonso who has an OPS+ of 143.
Yeah the deals will come, just have a little patience. Maybe the Astros gave them something better than the rumors of us getting Sparkman again. Lol
Jays rumoured to be getting an outfielder from Houston in exchange for Liriano.
Shi Davidi says Liriano to the Astros is done, and an OF is coming back. Illogically hoping its Derek Fisher.
What has transpired was always the risk when the front office in the offseason decided to neither expend significant resources on the club nor start a rebuild. They've been unlucky in the sense that the saleable assets (Estrada, Liriano, etc.) have been worse than expected but this was always possible. I think we are in the reaping what you sow phase of the season on many fronts.
"... I think we are in the reaping what you sow phase of the season on many fronts...."
You're referring to the phase where the Jays win 5 of their last 7 games, with three walkoff home runs, including two grand-slam walkoffs? That phase?
You're referring to the phase where the Jays win 5 of their last 7 games, with three walkoff home runs, including two grand-slam walkoffs? That phase?
Nice to see Liriano dealt. Not expecting much, but let's see who it is.
It's a buyer's market and the Jays assets are not very intriguing (at least the ones they want to trade). Getting anything of value would be a plus.
It's a buyer's market and the Jays assets are not very intriguing (at least the ones they want to trade). Getting anything of value would be a plus.
The phase where the team neither makes the playoffs (nor really seriously competes) nor gets anything for expiring assets.
Astros outfield prospects: (might not be up to date)
1. Kyle Tucker
4. Dereck Fisher
9. Teoscar Hernandez
10. Daz Cameron
16. Ramon Loreano
21. Jason Martin
23. Gilberto Celestino
24. JJ Matijevic
28. Myles Straw
1. Kyle Tucker
4. Dereck Fisher
9. Teoscar Hernandez
10. Daz Cameron
16. Ramon Loreano
21. Jason Martin
23. Gilberto Celestino
24. JJ Matijevic
28. Myles Straw
ok... looks like it's Nori Aoki and a minor leaguer
Latest rumour: Jays getting Nori Aoki for Liriano.
Noah beat me to it, and had more detail too...
Can only add: Aoki is on a $5.5-million salary this year, and is controllable for 2018. His career OPS is .736 but it's down to .694 this year.
Can only add: Aoki is on a $5.5-million salary this year, and is controllable for 2018. His career OPS is .736 but it's down to .694 this year.
Aoki looks like a non-tender candidate next year. His only real skill is contact hitting, but his OBP has fallen to .323 this year. And some analysts he's not a great defender either.
Maybe pin our hopes on the minor-leaguer who might be included in the deal?
Maybe pin our hopes on the minor-leaguer who might be included in the deal?
It all depends on who the minor leaguer is.
For one, it saves Rogers a bit of money. Does it set up another move?
For one, it saves Rogers a bit of money. Does it set up another move?
I think if we are learning anything about the new regime it is that they place little value on OF defence.
Aoki might have been included to balance the money a bit or maybe Bautista and/or Pearce are heading out of town.
you have to think there's a chance an outfielder gets moved now... too many bodies out there.
This looks to me like the first move of several interconnected ones. I'll wait until the deadline is done before commenting.
So Anthony Alford either starts for the Jays in 2018 or goes out in a Trade?
If the minor leaguer is someone like J.D. Davis then this is a pretty good deal.
Teoscar Hernandez is the prospect coming back. Top 10 prospect in a good Astros system, close to the majors. I'm quite pleased with that return, must mean the Jays are picking up some of Liriano's salary the rest of the way.
Okay, so the Jays are reported to be getting OF Teoscar Hernandez in the deal. He's a good prospect. Maybe, as others speculated, they took on Aoki to take his salary and get a better prospect.
Noah is micro-seconds ahead of me again. I'm retiring from this game.
Aoki was basically salary for salary. If it's more than just a salary dump, the return (the Prospect) should show significant value, more quality than quantity.
Sometimes I wonder what the point is in trying to generate conversation with alternative perspectives when so many people take the easy path that supports their own personal narrative. I'm looking to talk about my ideas, but a lot of people are happier to find evidence that they are 'right'.
Those that criticized my AA analogy - so you prefer the strawman argument that I remember a false trade deadline when AA made an impact? The point of my comment, which I think was clear, as I've been making it for weeks, is that the current FO lacks the creativity of AA to accomplish much with creative moves. AA never faced the trade deadline we currently face. The right choice during this trade deadline is to retool. I believe he would have done a better job. And of course there was that retooling moment in August a few years back when AA convinced JPR to trade a marginal prospect for a marginal utility player. I will believe Shapiro and Atkins have that kind of potential when I see it.
The false narrative that we have no talent to trade is tiresome. I've spent two weeks giving examples from our team, from other teams, linking to analysis from media sources, arguing why simply moving veterans itself would be a good idea, fine. I'm not going to bother listing again the guys I want to look at, but a bunch of people spilled a lot of ink on Glenn Sparkman. We have a half dozen Glenn Sparkmans, but you guys prefer Smith remaining a Jay?
We have no youth worthy of auditioning? Nonsense. I was the first Barnes proponent (or maybe it was Dan Gordon?). He is exactly the kind of prospect I want us to give a look at.
And as I write this we get a worthwhile return for Liriano.
Those that criticized my AA analogy - so you prefer the strawman argument that I remember a false trade deadline when AA made an impact? The point of my comment, which I think was clear, as I've been making it for weeks, is that the current FO lacks the creativity of AA to accomplish much with creative moves. AA never faced the trade deadline we currently face. The right choice during this trade deadline is to retool. I believe he would have done a better job. And of course there was that retooling moment in August a few years back when AA convinced JPR to trade a marginal prospect for a marginal utility player. I will believe Shapiro and Atkins have that kind of potential when I see it.
The false narrative that we have no talent to trade is tiresome. I've spent two weeks giving examples from our team, from other teams, linking to analysis from media sources, arguing why simply moving veterans itself would be a good idea, fine. I'm not going to bother listing again the guys I want to look at, but a bunch of people spilled a lot of ink on Glenn Sparkman. We have a half dozen Glenn Sparkmans, but you guys prefer Smith remaining a Jay?
We have no youth worthy of auditioning? Nonsense. I was the first Barnes proponent (or maybe it was Dan Gordon?). He is exactly the kind of prospect I want us to give a look at.
And as I write this we get a worthwhile return for Liriano.
Hernandez looks like a good get. Could be in the majors soon, too.
I wonder if the Jays agreed to pay the rest of Liriano and Aoki's deals in order to get a better prospect. They probably had money to spend, which they would have if the team was competitive and buying, but in this case they bought a better return for one of their impending free agents since they were selling. Pretty good use money if that's the case.
So they turned Hutchison into Liriano for a little over two half seasons (1.5 WAR), Hernandez, Ramirez, McGuire, and Aoki, and flexed a little financial muscle in both cases. Not bad. Liriano wasn't quite as good as the Jays would have hoped, but was a reasonable risk to take.
So they turned Hutchison into Liriano for a little over two half seasons (1.5 WAR), Hernandez, Ramirez, McGuire, and Aoki, and flexed a little financial muscle in both cases. Not bad. Liriano wasn't quite as good as the Jays would have hoped, but was a reasonable risk to take.
I was hoping for Mike Cameron's son to continue the current bloodline concept.
Hernandez is ranked close to Cameron. He's probably the most major league ready of all the Astros outfield prospect.
They already have a decent outfield, so they can afford to skip him.
He gets on base, is a 20/20 threat and has a great arm that play well in right field.
Looks good to me.
Hernandez is ranked close to Cameron. He's probably the most major league ready of all the Astros outfield prospect.
They already have a decent outfield, so they can afford to skip him.
He gets on base, is a 20/20 threat and has a great arm that play well in right field.
Looks good to me.
If the Jays were retaining salary someone better than Hernandez should have come back. Generally retained salary is reported by now, so is says something to the evaluation of Liriano.
The narrative you keep spouting about the Jays FO Jerjapan is tiring, old and inaccurate. That's why no one wants to bother talking to you about it. If you can't realize that turning Hutchison into Liriano and two viable minor leaguers (and without Liriano last year we likely miss the playoffs) and then the next year turn that into a top ten Astros OF prospect and Aoki isn't creative than I don't know what to say. Take off the hate goggles for the current FO, it's not doing you any good.
Before we get too excited about today's trade, or the two prospects acquired in last year's Liriano trade, it's worth noting that only 18% of prospects in July trades will end up with productive MLB careers. That's according to a study of every July trade from 2003 to 2012, by Baseball America. It defines "productive MLB career" as a positive career WAR and two or more seasons on a major-league roster. Here's the study:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospects-in-deadline-trades-face-long-odds/#5Y3Z52vli4R4D48a.97
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospects-in-deadline-trades-face-long-odds/#5Y3Z52vli4R4D48a.97
Several years ago we moved Eric Hinske while eating most of his salary. He proceeded to put up several years worth of cost-effective bench performances that could have helped the Jays.
When you are buying someone out you have to ask yourself whether he is valuable to the team at the adjusted price. Personally I think that Morales has value as a switch hitting power bat on the bench so I'd rather just stick him there as a sunk cost than move him for a return of no value while eating most of his salary. If there's a trade for an overpriced SP to be had then I'm all for it, but I'm not optimistic.
Pearce on the other hand may still have value that I'd like to recoup. I liked the signing before Smoak broke out, but now he's surplus to requirements.
When you are buying someone out you have to ask yourself whether he is valuable to the team at the adjusted price. Personally I think that Morales has value as a switch hitting power bat on the bench so I'd rather just stick him there as a sunk cost than move him for a return of no value while eating most of his salary. If there's a trade for an overpriced SP to be had then I'm all for it, but I'm not optimistic.
Pearce on the other hand may still have value that I'd like to recoup. I liked the signing before Smoak broke out, but now he's surplus to requirements.
Two (so far unnamed) minor leaguers from Cleveland for Smith.
Also, just to add to the above discussion- IMO health is the most underrated "skill" in MLB right now. Even for teams with a deep farm system the impact of injury is massive on a lineup.
For this reason I don't think that you can compare Pearce's part-time performance to Morales- who consistently plays in 150+ games.
For this reason I don't think that you can compare Pearce's part-time performance to Morales- who consistently plays in 150+ games.
Tom Pannone and Samad Taylor are the minor leaguers coming to Toronto from Cleveland.
IMO health is the most underrated "skill" in MLB right now.
I agree that good health is too easily overlooked as a player attribute. The Jays will presumably head into 2018 with Travis and Tulowitzki as their starting middle infielders. And they will need strong backups at both positions because both are likely to miss a lot of time, as they always do. That puts strain on the organization to not find just one competent backup MI, but two.
Same with Pearce. He's generally good... when healthy. Thing is, he is very often not healthy. So if he is your Plan A at any position, you better have a strong Plan B in the wings.
I'm no fan of Morales, but he at least can be counted on for reasonable health now that he no longer jumps on home plate. That should count for something.
I've been thinking that Freddy Galvis might be a good solution to the Tulo/Travis situation. He's been healthy most of his career, and will be surplus to requirements once the Phils call Crawford up. He's an excellent defender at SS (presumably can play 2B as well) and has shown progress with the bat this season.
The narrative you keep spouting about the Jays FO Jerjapan is tiring,
old and inaccurate. That's why no one wants to bother talking to you
about it. If you can't realize that turning Hutchison into Liriano and
two viable minor leaguers (and without Liriano last year we likely miss
the playoffs) and then the next year turn that into a top ten Astros OF
prospect and Aoki isn't creative than I don't know what to say. Take off
the hate goggles for the current FO, it's not doing you any good.
I know you've got some issue with me Kasi, this is a long standing issue, but goodness. I talk about how we have assets to trade and I get ganged up on. I talk about Liriano being an asset and I get ganged up on. Liriano actually yields value - not because of Ramirez and McGuire, not because of who he is - and I still get ganged up on.
Too many fans of the rebuild theory are patting themselves on the back right now, and Kasi, you are emboldened by that. Let's go back to the older questioning of narratives that used to happen around here. I ask for respect around alternative points of view, I feel I'm being respectful, and I dislike bullying terms like 'hate goggles'.
I know you've got some issue with me Kasi, this is a long standing issue, but goodness. I talk about how we have assets to trade and I get ganged up on. I talk about Liriano being an asset and I get ganged up on. Liriano actually yields value - not because of Ramirez and McGuire, not because of who he is - and I still get ganged up on.
Too many fans of the rebuild theory are patting themselves on the back right now, and Kasi, you are emboldened by that. Let's go back to the older questioning of narratives that used to happen around here. I ask for respect around alternative points of view, I feel I'm being respectful, and I dislike bullying terms like 'hate goggles'.
Same with Pearce. He's generally good... when healthy. Thing is, he is very often not healthy. So if he is your Plan A at any position, you better have a strong Plan B in the wings.
I'm no fan of Morales, but he at least can be counted on for reasonable health now that he no longer jumps on home plate. That should count for something.
Durability in a replacement-level DH counts for, mmm, a lot less than a good second baseman. There's always someone who can step in and use the day off if your primary DH is out. When Morales was injured, Bautista moved to DH and the club looked a lot better. Donaldson/Martin/Pearce/Smoak all could have used some time in the role.
You're not respectful jerjapan. Until you can make some posts about the FO without calling them Vader, a librarian or whatever other insult you come up with. The hate goggles term is entirely earned.
As a depressed individual, I do feel attacked. I may or may not be right about that. That's what depression is. I do feel there is value in calling people out
I understand that well, the reason I didn't post here for almost a year is anxiety and it contributing to high blood pressure. My familiy is more important than debates. But every once in a while I venture out to post again when the itch strikes. Honestly I should probably give it up, not like it does any good. I don't know you so I know nothing about you other than what you say on this board. But by your own words you have disdain and contempt for the FO of the Jays. It makes it very hard to have any debate with you about this team. Anyway take care of yourself, that is what matters. Good luck.
Durability in a replacement-level DH counts for, mmm, a lot less than a good second baseman.
For sure. I explained myself poorly. I was certainly not trying to imply an equivalency (Plan B for a DH is not a tough slot to fill). I'm just saying that when you acquire a player, a healthy track record counts for something. You get a guy like Pearce, or Tulo, and you know they are very likely to miss a lot of time. And you have to plan around that.