Kevin Pillar gives zero improvement in CF, which is expected. Stuck with maybe Solarte, Carrera and Pearce in Left, minor improvement only. One of the Kids in Right could give a big improvement, some in Offense, more in Defense. Biagini as 5th Starter - don’t expect much more than last year.

Standing pat gets the Jays absolutely nowhere and little improvement over last year. The Jays Brass knew what the cost would be within 2%. They knew expected Free Agent Costs, within 5%. If they needed more money they would have asked for it. If they didn’t, expect a rebuild very soon.

Year-over-year comparisons are a bit tough because of problems with Cot's, Sportrac and BB Reference. Cot's shows the Blue Jay rank for the 40 man end-of-season payrolls over the past 10 years as usually about 14th among MLB clubs, with a high of 9th in 2013 and a low of 21st in 2011.  They were 14th in 2016 and 2017.  That is a pretty poor standing given the fan support at the gate and on television.

The stars do seem aligned for mid-season high-profile acquisition. Not that these factors ought to influence baseball ops but with both the Leafs and the Raptors looking like promising teams, it may take until the first 60 games have been played for the Jays to get a reasonable level of attention in the market. If the Jays end up 35-25 after 60 then the FO ought to take the $ left + prospects to juice the team for the next 100. That could be enough to get a rather big name from next year's FA class.

That said, if there's a value contract at 2/years for a pitcher with more promise than Estrada or Happ that the player will accept, then I hope the FO is exploring that and trying to make it happen.

Responding to an idea from the previous thread, I think Collin McHugh would be a great target. He currently does not have a rotation spot on the stacked Astros team, is scheduled to make around $5M in 2018 (depending on what happens with his arbitration case), and has an additional year of control in 2019. He's been a 3-4 WAR starter since 2014 (injury shortened 2017). Not sure what the Astros would want in return for him, but he's the type of SP the Jays should be targeting, especially if they are running low on available funds.

I would be very happy with a record of 35-25. The FO will bulk up the team. Shapiro said that an early promotion for Vlad would be seriously considered if it helped make the post season.

Personally, I'm not so concerned about 2019.  If the club is not going to retain Donaldson and is going to keep payroll down, it is shaping up as a down year.  The larger question is who is going to be pitching for the club when the position player talent in the minor leagues develops in the early 20s. 

i just don't see any reason not to spend. especially instead of trading prospects. what or who are we saving the money for? we have next to no longterm money committed. $50m next year. $15m the year after. $5m the year after that. there is no payroll crunch to worry about.

i just don't see any reason not to spend. especially instead of trading prospects. what or who are we saving the money for?

Reason: they're cheapskates.  It is ultimately self-defeating to have spent considerable effort at marketing the club around the country, but then not putting enough money back to put a consistently good club on the field. 

Look at it this way.  The Giants are competing with the much-richer Dodgers.  They are usually in the top 10 in payrolls, and sometimes in the top 5.  They are right around the payroll tax cut-off almost every year.  Why wouldn't the Blue Jays take the same approach?

McHugh makes a lot of sense to me as well.  I wonder if he's a little FB prone for the AL East, especially without a great fastball, but his HR rates seem fine.  Jays could do much worse, and you are right - Houston would seem to need to deal a starter.  Jays and Houston also have hooked up on a few deals in the last few years, so there seems to be a decent trading history there.  Curious as to what it would take (I would imagine something like the Solarte deal, or maybe a bit more than that?)

If they are going to spend the remaining 17-20m now, I expect (assuming no trades) that it would be a corner OF bat and an RP.  If they instead decided to fill something via trade (I like the McHugh idea, and trading Pillar and signing Cain makes a lot of sense to me as well), that could impact the overall plan.

Bottom line is if you are serious about going for it in 2018 (and every single move they've made suggests the answer is "yes" to that question), you may as well spend all the cash now, and figure out July in July.  If they are still in it, ask ownership for a bit more cash for a mid-season acquisition (or just bring up Vlad).  If you are out of it, trade Josh (assuming we aren't re-signing him), and you've got no payroll issues the rest of the way.

I'm honestly not sure what the best plan is with the remaining cash.  If you cannot make a single trade, I'd probably target a CarGo (either Gomez or Gonzalez) for RF, and either a decent RP or a SP/RP swingman type.  But making a deal or two makes more sense to me, and I assume to Atkins as well.  Here's hoping everything starts moving soon.  I'd expect any major league players being dealt would happen before spring training starts. 

We are a McCutchen/Cain and Cobb/Lynn type away from being a team that can contend and fight for the playoffs with less reliance on Tulo and Travis. That's a win in my books.

My opinion has changed since the offseason started. Josh Donaldson needs to be extended. Next years free agent class isn't as attractive as everybody makes it seem. You take out Machado/Kershaw/Harper who are going to the big boys, and then you're left with a TON of very similar talent to what is left on the FA market right now (Cobb/Cain/Lynn etc).

Unless Tulo turns into Tulo from pre 2016, he ain't gonna make the hall of fame. Josh Donaldson is probably the player with the best chance on our team to make the HOF, even with his late career. I'd rather sink 135 million into a 5 year deal (40/35/25/20/15) and go with what we have.

If you really think your farm will be strong enough, then you should be able to save money in the upcoming years with your 'waves of prospects' and make room for JD in the budget.

Cain to me is not attractive because of his lack of pop. I'd rather wait on Alford. If you trade Pillar, that's a different story altogether and Cain would be perfect for this team.

I get it, but I've grown a little tired of the cheapskate idea. Rogers Corp (R Corp for the Mr. Robot fans) has other things to spend their money on, other priorities. The Jays just have to be good enough.

To take a mundane example I really enjoy coffee -- let me emphasize *really* enjoy it. I could buy the same stuff at home/work but, yet, there is the stuff I drink at home and then the stuff I drink when I'm in the lab. I use different brewing systems at home & lab. The stuff for the lab is sufficient and by spending less on lab coffee I can have the odd muffin from the bakery when I choose to skip a regular breakfast.

This is how I see Rogers with payroll -- they're not cheapskates per se, but constantly asking the question of what is the best value proposition given our resources. Even $20-40M USD is not a small amount of money -- who knows how they do their account could it go to capital investments in the stadium, team research & scouting, upgrades to... whatever. Heck, they could even use that cushion to protect against fluctuations in the exchange rate or invest and get it compounding for years 5, 10, 15.

I'm at peace with R Corp and who they are -- perhaps it has something to do with being able to see the Citgo sign from where I work? The grass is always greener and Fenway green isn't all it is cracked up to be.

Jon Berti is back with the Jays on a minor league deal.

This is a very reasonable and strong take.  Well said.

The Jays don’t really have top end Pitching prospects, the dominant Ace type Starter type. Their best is more Mid-Rotation types. They got lucky their Hitters are much more advanced, and likely to be up right away if not sooner.

To get back into the Postseason, impact additions must be made, the Jays have no choice. Their only openings for that caliber of addition is in the Outfield. How that happens is probably as much a mystery to the Jays as it is to the Fans. I always thought they had enough prospect for one big trade and enough money for one big signing, but I have yet to see it.

This is how I see Rogers with payroll -- they're not cheapskates per se, but constantly asking the question of what is the best value proposition given our resources. Even $20-40M USD is not a small amount of money -- who knows how they do their account could it go to capital investments in the stadium, team research & scouting, upgrades to... whatever. Heck, they could even use that cushion to protect against fluctuations in the exchange rate or invest and get it compounding for years 5, 10, 15.

They have never had a payroll higher than 9th in MLB.  If you are constantly asking that question, surely on one or two occasions you would have come to the conclusion that it was a good time to spend more than that given the market size, team success or whatever. 

I have said that I would be fine with a rebuild in 2018- trade Donaldson, sign Stroman to an extension and aim to be a great club in a few years (and be willing to spend the dollars to make it more likely to happen).  Or they could spend more money, and keep Donaldson for the longer haul. 

I think cheapskate is entirely fair, and I'm not the first to use the term.

Well I mean "constantly asking the question of what is the best value proposition" is a pretty decent working definition of "cheapskate".

then again, Kendrys Morales for $33m as your marquee FA signing in a year you're purportedly trying to contend isn't even really "value hunting"....that's just plain cheap.

Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte will be the Jays' Starting Infield at some point this season. That is a guarantee. The Jays took two months to solve this problem. The Jays basically got the best possible people for the best possible price they could. I assumed they were saving as much as possible to spend on impact people, Pitchers and Hitters. Little did I know that the same care and attention would apply to everything. So patience is mandatory and more than a necessity. Who is the next acquisition?

It has been confirmed that McCutchen has been traded to the Giants.

Cheap is relative to what the other teams are doing. If The Blue Jays are cheap then what are the Florida market teams?

The Jays opened 2017 as a top 5 payroll team in MLB. Enough with the complaining. The Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox are not cheap but everybody else is? Who cares how much money the owner makes, it shouldn't affect how 'fair' the payroll is. If your owner makes makes 500 million and has a payroll of 177,000$ or if they make 100 billion and have a payroll of 177,000$ what difference does it make.

If most people that have problems with ownership focused more on the baseball operations side of the company and less on the corporate side, most issues would subside. 177,000$ million is peanuts and cheap...when you look at the amount of money Rogers makes from TV and the entire Canadian market. But that's not what should be determining the budget.

The Jays opened 2017 as a top 5 payroll team in MLB

Is there a reference for that?

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2017/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/236206/payroll-of-major-league-baseball-teams/

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/heres-every-mlb-teams-opening-day-payroll-for-2017/

There was never any confirmation as to weather or not Upton's contract was counted toward SD or TOR for the 2017 season.

Thanks for the support for my McHugh suggestion. I think it makes a lot of sense. I saw on Rotoworld today that Darvish's price has come down and the Yankees are seriously looking at him. The cost may be only around $80-90 million for 5 years. At that price I would hope the Jays would be interested, although Darvish may not be interested in coming here. If the Yankees sign him, it would create another McHugh-type situation with a team having more than 5 mlb level starters, and the Yankees would be wanting to shed some salary to try to stay under the luxury tax.

Nice to see my Giants grab McCutcheon. Another "exactly what they needed" type of move, similar to Longoria. They apparently want to play him in a corner OF spot, meaning they are still on the hunt for a CF. Will be interesting to see what they surrendered in the deal.

Hopefully, things will start to pick up after the US holiday today. I want and expect the Jays to get another starter and an OF.

Every report at the time indicated that the Padres were covering $17 million of the $22 million owing on Upton's contract for 1/3 of 2016 and all of 2017.  Sportrac somehow had Upton on the books for $16.45 million in 2017, and it appears that other places had the same mistake for opening day payroll purposes.  If Sportrac had it right, Ross Atkins' statements at the time of the deal made no sense and the Jays made an incredibly unwise deal. 

Even if you take out Upton's salary that still puts the Jays at the same level as some competitive teams. They are ahead of about 20 teams in baseball.

They've also renovated the stadium to some extent with concrete blow up and infield dirt install, new roof, new concessions.

They also signed VLAD with the most expensive contract for a prospect at over 3 million. Were they cheap then?

You think it's fair to call them cheap. I think it's fair to assess them as a team that's not cheap. I think it's fair to point out some of the irony to calling a team cheap based on their top 10 finishing mark on a payroll list the way you did.

"I think cheapskate is entirely fair, and I'm not the first to use the term."

"They have never had a payroll higher than 9th in MLB. If you are constantly asking that question, surely on one or two occasions you would have come to the conclusion that it was a good time to spend more than that given the market size, team success or whatever. "

The return for McCutchen: RHP/Reliever Kyle Crick and OF Bryan Reynolds

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crickky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=reynol000bry

Actually not very much.

That's actually a fairly high price the Giants are paying for 1 year of McCutcheon. Crick is a Connor Greene type pitcher who throws in the high 90's but had poor control. They moved him to the bullpen last year, and he made a major breakthrough, reached the majors, and performed well in the Giants' pen. Reynolds is the guy the Giants took right after the Jays took Woodman in the 2016 draft, and he looked like the superior prospect then, and has shown to be far better as a pro. He hits for average, has some power, and is coming off a fine season in high A ball. He was the Giants' #4 prospect.

That should open the door for Cain. The Giants would lose their 2nd and 5th pick as well as 1M in international money if they were to sign him. Maybe 3 years with an option?

Other than the Jays, who needs an Outfielder?

I’d offer Lorenzo Cain an incentive-laden multi-year contract. Something the Jays can afford, and something that can be easily earned if he stays healthy.

I'd rather they sign Cobb or Darvish since I believe they have question marks in their rotation. Estrada/Sanchez and pitcher #5 are question marks, plus factor in injuries.

Give me Cobb and Cargo for 25 million and hope JD/Tulo/Travis/Martin/Pearce/Morales/Smoak can get it done. Even if they sign Cain, you're still holding out for those guys to all show up in order to contend.

Curtis Granderson???

As per MLB Trade Rumors. i years/5 million + incentives

Granderson to the Jays pretty much proves the Jays aren't serious about competing this year. Sure he's a good clubhouse guy but there's not much else to get excited about.

1 year/5 million. My fingers are not doing what they are suppose to do :)

Thumbs up - should make an excellent platoon partner for Teoscar & spell Pillar in CF - power should also play up in AL east

Guess the Jays felt Morales was getting lonely waiting in line for the geriatric ward to open it's doors... add in a washed up Tulo and Pillar's terrible offence and it looks like a pretty weak lineup - especially if Smoak regresses even a little bit.

Granderson put up a .343 wOBA against RHP last year.

So Brett Anderson and call it a day?

I like the deal at 1/5. Given his age there is always a chance he falls off a cliff, but he was a 2 WAR player last season, and his numbers after being traded to the Dodgers were deceiving (.153 BABIP while batted ball profile/hard contact/walk rate remained constant).

We might be seeing a Granderson/Pearce platoon, because I can't imagine they'd platoon Granderson with Zeke.

cheap bastards.

How do you get Granderson, Pearce and Carrera on a roster while also carrying Morales, Pillar and a young upside guy like Hernandez... along with Solarte and Diaz? You can't. Unless someone from Pearce/Morales/Carrera goes, the 25 man roster likely doesnt include younger upside guys like Diaz and Hernandez... that's why I don't like this move.

yep.the bottom of the roster clogged with absolutely awful vets, but who are getting paid real money so will play come hell or high water and block kids even if (when) they suck.

absolutely ass backwards way to build a team.

Reminds me too much of Bautista last year.
At least this time it's clear this is a platoon player.

That leaves money for a starter.

I believe this fills up the 40 roster, so they'll have to make a move if they want to add a starter.

Jays 2018 early projections (avg of steamer and zips)

Asterisk = steamer-only projection

2B Travis 102wrc+, 2.8war/650
3B Donaldson 140wrc+, 6.3war/650
1B Smoak 116wrc+, 2.3war/650
LF Pearce 109wrc+, 1.5war/650
DH Morales 106wrc+, 1.0war/650
RF Granderson 105wrc+, 1.5war/650
C Martin 101wrc+, 3.8war/650
SS Tulowitzki 98wrc+, 2.8war/650
CF Pillar 90wrc+, 2.9war/650

UT Solarte* 101wrc+,1.8war/650 - Hernandez 89wrc+, 0.9war/650
OF Carrera 85wrc+, 0.0war/650 - Pompey 81wrc+, 0.8war/650
IF Diaz* 96wrc+, 1.9war/650 - Ngoepe 53wrc+, -0.6war/650
C Maile 52wrc+, -0.1war/650 - Jansen 85wrc+, 2.3war/650

Another patch-holes-while-rebuilding value move. At least it won't cost them a draft pick or IFA slot money.

81 wins, here we come.

uglyone, how many of those players do you think will come anywhere close to 650 PA?

(yes platoon players like grandy get overrated by a war rate stat).

"uglyone, how many of those players do you think will come anywhere close to 650 PA?"

that's not why i turn war into a rate stat. the war rate stat should be used the same way an on base percentage or an OPS stat is used.

if you want to project the jays as more injured than most, then that will make all rate stats less valuable, whether that's obp or war/650.

Granderson can play right field, and had some good defensive numbers there even last year, but Pearce cannot.

"the war rate stat should be used the same way an on base percentage or an OPS stat is used"

The WAR rate stat is interesting, but with an old/injury-prone team, it seems to be of limited value in providing a snapshot of how good a lineup and bench are. What matters is how much production you get from the team as a whole over the course of the season as a whole. If Travis gets (say) 197 PA, as he did last year, then his 2.8 WAR/650 doesn't tell you much about how much production to expect from the second base position. A healthy player who can provide 2.8 WAR/650 is a lot more valuable than an oft-injured 2.8 WAR/650 player plus a negative WAR bench player(s), as the Jays learned last year.

just think of it exactly like you would about on base percentage.

i could even express it in the same format if you'd like.

instead of 5war per 650pa I could say it's a .0076 war percentage.

same difference.

Team might be old, but the depth players have a lot of upside. As long as Donaldson is healthy.

Right, uglyone, I get it. I guess I prefer to look at projected total WAR by position, including anticipated playing time (the way Fangraphs does it), to get a sense of how my team shapes up for the coming season.

By way of comparison, Nick Johnson had a career .399 OBP, but he always had trouble staying healthy, posting PA's of:

78
441
406
295
547
628
147
574
98
0
102

So, his projected OBP for any given season was of limited help in assessing how much production the team would realistically get from his position (first base).

Granderson.

Seriously?

This is going to be a long season if that is the best they could do.

Granderson seems like this year's Bautista, but at 10 million less. Hopefully that last 10-12million can go to a starter. Gotta admit, it's cool having a player referred to in an Arkells song

I get it. injured players are worth less than healthy ones.

i just don't think projecting injuries and projecting performance are at all similar things, or should be combined.

i'm more interested in seeing their projected level of performance separately from a guess about their health.

and it really shouldn't matter - we don't complain about a projected .300avg failing to take into account injuries. same thing with war/650. the "650" part is actually irrelevant - i could use any denominator. i use a full season number only because it puts the war rate stat in a context we can understand more easily.


the war pace is actually much more of an issue for platoon guys like granderson, because their projected performance is based on them being used moatly in their platoon matchup, so if they were to play as a fulltime player that would literally make their projected performance rate stats lower. that for me is a legit issue with a war rate stat because in that case it's literally telling us something false. i wish they projected RH/LH splits seperately so I could make a more accurate rate stat for platoon guys.

This is the type of move the Jays should be making based on their roster construction. It won't be popular with fans, but realistically, this team is rebuilding internally while trying to maintain some level of competitiveness at the big league level. They won't go all in to win in 2018, but they can't rebuild, so this is the in between compromise that comes with being a Rogers owned franchise. Basically, a .500-ish team until (hopefully) young upside position players start filtering up and increasing the team's talent base.

The goal was likely to raise the floor of the 2018 club while not sacrificing top prospects or adding expensive long-term commitments.

I think it's fine to project performance, and your WAR/650 provides a nice approximation of that.

But playing time is also an important variable in determining a player's (and a team's) productivity, whether or not we have a good system for predicting it.

Simplistically, production = performance x playing time

WAR/650 captures performance only (subject to the platoon issue you mentioned); because the various players could each get 0 or 650 PA or anywhere in between, the stat provides little indication of how productive a team's position players will be in the aggregate.

thanks for posting the rogers PR statement, SK.

greenfrog I figured that using /650 even for bench players and minor league callups made it pretty clear it was a performance-only metric.

Anyone expecting different was setting themselves up for disappointment. Rogers wants to give the impression of contention to keep ticket sales, ratings, etc, as high as possible, while the front office wants to rebuild. This the compromise. I'd much rather be in this position than adding bad contracts in an attempt to win a 2nd WC spot.

Curtis Granderson is the Left Fielder who platoons with Steve Pearce the Infield/Outfield Bench Guy. Kevin Pillar is the CF, while Ezequiel Carrera is the 4th OF. The Jays have yet to sign a Right Fielder, which most pundits think will be Lorenzo Cain. Second alternative might be someone else. Failing that, Teoscar Hernandez is the most likely option. It’s still possible a decision will be made on Carrera’s future or even Kevin Pillar’s future. In which order are players cleared from the 40-Man Roster? Or is there a trade forthcoming?

Starting Teoscar Hernandez is a perfectly reasonable 'Play A' for a team that wants to move back to contending.

Starting Pearce/Granderson is not.

I have no problem with his contract. I have a problem with the fact that he takes up a roster spot that should be going o a better player. I think they should consider releasing Pearce, not signing someone who is no better than him.

uglyone: I guess I like to think more concretely about how much playing time each player is likely to amass, rather than simply divide the roster into putative starters and bench players. For example, last year Goins had more PA than Tulo and Travis *combined*. So how important were Tulo and Travis’s WAR/650 in telling us how productive the team as a whole would be in 2017? Because of playing time (and some performance) issues, not very.

Releasing Steve Pearce is like setting fire to $6.25 Million just to watch it burn. At least Pearce gives reasonable offense if not overused. Someone I trust just recently said, don’t get rid of someone useful without getting value back.

SK - you, in fact, were one of the ones expecting different. you expected starting spots to be left open for kids like Hernandez. they weren't. you didn't expect prospects to be traded for borderline vets. they were. you expected them to save money now for later years, and not spend it on show moves for us naive fans. they did.

and yet it's the same ringing endorsement from you no matter what the move is. and the same patting yourself on the back "i told you guys so" even when you didn't.

greenfrog - it's fine to make guesses at health projections, but imo they're far closer to guesses than actual projections. i don't like mixing them with actual projections.

...or Warren Buffett.

When I look at the Jays roster, I see a slew of injuries waiting to happen. I don’t think the team defense is going to be all that great, either.

Actually, no. I have said all along that acquiring disposal veterans that do not clog up positions long-term will make it easier to integrate prospects into the big league roster. I was bringing up Dyson repeatedly for that reason (ex. he could shift over to 4th OF if Hernandez/Alford/whoever won a spot). I have advocated for young players to win spots out of ST, not have them pencilled in to the lineup in advance without a contingency plan. Nothing has changed.

Would I like the lineup to get younger? Absolutely. I'm rooting for Hernandez to destroy ST and force the team's hand. However, Granderson gives them a placeholder in case that doesn't happen, and someone who they can easily push to the side (eventually) if/when someone is ready to displace him.

As far as prospects being traded, I'm not going to lose any sleep over Woodman. Olivares has solid tools, but is more of a boom or bust type and not one of the team's better prospects. I really don't see where they did anything to go against what they have done the past two years.

If SK is the Rogers PR department, does that make uglyone a Toronto Sun columnist?