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#BlueJays affilaites won just two of six Monday.


Buffalo 4 Pawtucket 2

Zach Stewart gave up a run over three innings but it was Julindary Higuera taking the loss after giving up two runs over 2-13 innings.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a two-run home run. Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith Jr. had two hits apiece.


Portland 12 New Hampshire 6

Harold Ramirez was 3-for-5 with three runs batted in. Jon Berti, Bo Bichette and Juan Kelly had two hits apiece.

Tayler Saucedo was slaughtered for 10 runs over 4-2/3 innings.


Dunedin 6 Palm Beach 0

Josh Palacios, Kevin Smith and Chad Spanberger all homered to get Dunedin rolling.

Yennsy Diaz spun seven shtuout innigns of two-hit ball, walking one and whiffing four.


Lansing 3 Dayton 1

Ryan Noda doubled home the tie-breaking run and Brandon Grudzielanek singled home the insurance marker in the ninth. Kyle Weatherly gave up just one run in a no-decision. Brayden Bouchey got the victory.


Boise 2 Vancouver 0
 
Sean Wymer struck out seven but surrendered a solo home run to take the 'L'.  Nick Podkul had two hits.


Burlington 1 Bluefiled 0


Nathanael Perez pitched a no-hitter over five innings, striking out seven and walking one. Andy McGuire allowed the only run in the sixth for the loss.  D.J. Neal had two hits.





*** 3 Stars!!!! ***

3. Nathaneal Perez

2. Yennsy Diaz

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero Goes Yard | 90 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#364436) #
Mike Harrington in the Buffalo News suggests that John Schneider will probably move up from New Hampshire to Buffalo next year.  If so, he'd likely be reunited with the "rising sons"  at least in April.  Service time considerations do not apply to managers!
hypobole - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#364437) #
Thanks for the link, Mike. Some interesting items there: the transaction record, strong attendance despite complete lack of success and Vlad's impact.

I'm sure few if any here care about Meacham's future as long as it's not in Toronto. Lot's care about Pompey's future, although as time goes on it doesn't look to involve the Jays organisation.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#364455) #
SRF has not pitched since Aug 18th against NYY. He was immediately demoted. Does anyone know anything?
Gerry - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#364456) #
The Jays are resting him to keep his inning count down. He is due to pitch tonight.

If innings are an issue, he is unlikely to get recalled in September.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#364457) #
I just checked, last year he threw 132 innings, this year so far it is 126. So he could get called back in September.
bpoz - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#364458) #
Thanks Gerry. Interesting to count how many pitches he throws tonight. Maybe just tune him up with 50-60 pitches. Then he can go 80-90 in Toronto.
PeterG - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#364459) #
I think that SRF will be recalled in September to acquire some additional experience but will be used out of the pen.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#364460) #
Tellez playing his first game in ten days.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#364464) #
Bo with 2B #41 his 1st PA. HR #11 his 2nd PA, next batter Ramirez also with HR #11.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#364467) #
vladdy re-injured his leg.

high performance department ain't covering themselves in glory this year.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#364468) #
It sounds like your high performance department could use some work:

https://twitter.com/PatWGR/status/1034585436012900352
https://twitter.com/PatWGR/status/1034588945043128320
uglyone - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#364470) #
fingers crossed, I guess.

https://twitter.com/DanJGlickman/status/1034577099095453697
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#364471) #
Ummm, he was grabbing the (possibly broken) belt he took off at the end of the film. Unless it was doubling as a groin-splint, he's probably ok.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#364472) #
Vlad scratches his crotch and people freak out.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#364473) #
phew!

the honor of our High Performance Department has been saved.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#364474) #
Most reasonable people who mock something with wrong info are contrite when they find out. Other people double-down...
hypobole - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#364475) #
Some people like to be snarky....like Keith Law. I like Keith Law and he's wrong a lot too.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#364476) #
Well, that's true. It has to be well done, though, and once the horse is beaten, it's time to move on.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#364477) #
I dared besmirch the good name of the High Performance Department.

for shame.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#364478) #
Anyway, Bo hit a second double tonight, up to 42 on the year. Most in the EL since a couple of guys hit 43 back in 2010.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 28 2018 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#364479) #
59 extra base hits, and still a bit left to go.

I had a moment a few weeks ago where I thought he resembled Alex Gonzalez as a prospect. That left a mixture of feelings - remembering wistfully the Jays last elite Slugger and SS prospect combo, and then the cloud of disappointment as he never really developed past his 22nd birthday. As he continues to rack up extra-base hits, Bo further excises that memory.
eldarion - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#364480) #
Agreed, Spifficus. Bichette may OPS .800 as a 20 year old in AA - on average over 4 years younger than the competition. He's doing it with speed (32 stolen bases) and power (59 extra-base hits). He will definitely make an appearance in the major leagues next year, barring injury. Unsurprisingly, the freak 19 year olds tearing up MLB (and our own at Triple A) has caused Bichette to be somewhat overlooked in the 'specialness' department.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#364481) #
In the 2014 season, Francisco Lindor was 4 months older than Bichette is this season. Lindor spent the majority of the season in AA, and Bichette is hitting better than Lindor did in AA that year. Lindor is now one of the best players in baseball. Of course, Lindor's defense at SS is better, but if Bo hits like Lindor, he's going to have a great career.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 02:02 AM EDT (#364482) #
Has anybody noticed Alberto Mineo, the catcher the Jays picked up from the Cubs last offseason? I haven't considered him a prospect, but he just turned 24 last month, had an OPS just under .800 in A+, and is hitting like Vladdy since his call up to Buffalo a few days ago, with an OPS of 1.226. For a catcher, who by the way, is listed as average defensively in the clay davenport charts. Oh, and he hits left and mashes LEFT handers.
dan gordon - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 02:25 AM EDT (#364483) #
Sorry for the 3rd post in a row, but I had to mention the Bluefield game today - they had 9 hits including 3 doubles, drew 12 walks, stole 5 bases, didn't hit into any double plays, and the other team had a passed ball. So how many runs did they score with all that offense? Just five! Cal Stevenson was at it again, with 2 singles, a double, 2 walks and 4 stolen bases. Amazingly enough, he didn't score a run.
Glevin - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#364484) #
If the Jays, as is likely, move on from Gibbons, Stubby Clapp might be a name to watch (80 grade name for sure). Was minor league manager of the year for BA last year, already worked in the Jays system, has already worked with a number of current Jays in both the Jays and Cardinals systems, and as a bonus, is Canadian. I don't know if he is the analytical sort the Jays might like though.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#364485) #
I am not sure if Stubby Clapp speaks spainish, which is something the Jays had in the must have list.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#364488) #
I have no problems if Stubby Clapp gets an interview or if he gets the job but his being Canadian should not be a consideration for the job and speaking Spanish fluently should be a must -Someone I would like to see get an interview is Giants coach Hensley Meulens, who was a finalist for the Yankees job last year and apparently speaks Spanish,Japanese & Dutch fluently.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#364489) #
Felipe Alou! Okay, might be a little long in the tooth.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#364494) #
Hire ARod.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#364498) #
In the 2014 season, Francisco Lindor was 4 months older than Bichette is this season. Lindor spent the majority of the season in AA, and Bichette is hitting better than Lindor did in AA that year. Lindor is now one of the best players in baseball. Of course, Lindor's defense at SS is better, but if Bo hits like Lindor, he's going to have a great career.

That's true, but Lindor hit better in the major leagues in 2015 than he had hit in double A in 2014.  That doesn't happen too often.  Lindor started off his minor league career with exceptional contact ability and good plate discipline and just a smidge of power.  That is probably a better base to start from than good contact ability and medium range power. 

I like Bo Bichette very much, and am impressed with the way he has handled this season.  He is on pace to get 600 PAs, and he has improved as the season went on.  Durability was a bit of a question about him before this season, and he has given a very good answer to ti this year. 
uglyone - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#364500) #
I don't think we need to ignore that Bo maybe should take a bit of a hit on his prospect grade after this year.

The good news is that we have seen now what he can do without massive babip help or massive power that seems unsusainable, like he showed at his first couple levels - and even without those, he's still a well above average hitter as a 20yr old SS in AA, which is great.

Still, though, I think for me he has fallen out of the top-5/10 category that he was in and i feel more comfortable calling him a top-20/25 type guy now. That being said, a lot of that is predicated on his glove at SS still being a question mark.

But the truth is he has fallen out of the "unprecedented" territory he was in before this year, and is now more in line with a number of former very good jays top prospects:

20yrs old, AA

Snider: 423pa, 12.3b%/27.4k%, 33.0swstr%, 14.5ld%, .333bip/.262avg, .199iso, 121wrc+
Bichette: 563pa, 7.9b%/17.1k%, 10.1swstr%, 16.9ld%, .328bip/283avg, .169iso, 119wrc+
Lawrie: 609pa, 7.7b%/19.4k%, 9.2swstr%, 13.9ld%, .350bip/.285avg, .166iso, 117wrc+
Barreto: 507pa, 7.1b%/17.8k%, 9.3swstr%, 22.5ld%, .330bip/.281avg, .132iso, 117wrc+
A.Gose: 596pa, 10.4b%/25.k%, 24.6swstr%, 18.7ld%, .332bip/.253avg, .161iso, 114wrc+

Now despite what their careers turned into, for the most part these guys were all well deserving of their top prospect hype.

In retrospect, if we had access to these numbers, we'd have seen the MASSIVE swinging strike issues that both Snider and Gose had, and probably downgraded them accordingly (dissappointingly, the eye-test scouts, while noting their swing and miss tendencies, didn't really put it into proper persepective imo - a 33% swinging strike percentage for Snider seems pretty ridiculous, and should probably have stopped him from top-5/10 hype). It also didn't help that neither Snider nor (more surprisingly Gose) were able to be positive defensive contributors, either.

But besides those two, Lawrie and Barreto actually seem like pretty good comps for Bichette at the moment. For the record, I still see Lawrie as a success story skill-wise - he was a very good MLBer - who sabotaged himself by being a headcase. That kind of outcome sans the insanity would be good.

Barreto is a bit more of a worrisome comp - he's not a bust yet, but he's stalled out a bit as a prospect - 2 good but not great years in AAA now, with minimal success in the bigs, and now the projection systems don't like him much anymore either. A big part of his stagnation, though, is that it's looking like his defense won't play well, even at 2B. Right now I'm a bit more confident that Bichette actually has defensive chops, which would dramatically alter this comparison.

These may seem like downer comps but I don't mean them to be. Lawrie and Barreto were both very good prospects, and Lawrie could have become a star with a little more sanity.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#364503) #
Brett Lawrie on decaf would be an excellent outcome for Bo Bichette.  Lawrie spent his age 21 season in triple A and in the major leagues.  He dominated in both places, and put up numbers that would be consistent with Bo Bichette's minor league career through A ball.  It would downhill fast after that for Lawrie with assorted leg injuries a big part of it. 
Nigel - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#364504) #
Barretto, for whatever reason, appears to have changed his hitting approach completely in the past two years. I saw him a lot in Vancouver. He had a short quick swing and was driving the ball to right centre all the time. Watching him in Oakland heís gone completely to grip it and rip it and looking to pull everything with maximum loft. His k% has gone up considerably.

I think Bichetteís offensive upside has always been tied to how much power he actually has. Since he arrived in Dunedin itís settled in at good (for a SS) not great. Thereís time for an age related increase though and if the reports on his improved defence are true then he still is an excellent prospect. I do think heíll fall out of many Top 10 lists though. I wonder if Boston isnít currently a place to look for a young SS comp?
Chuck - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#364506) #
heís gone completely to grip it and rip

Sounds like he's been indoctrinated into the grippiest and rippiest philosophy in the league.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#364513) #
With the depth at the position that we have in the majors and minors I would trade Bo Bichette if valued as a top 10 prospect across the game by any other team and try to acquire a top 10 arm in return. That would be a real coup. Essentially that limits the possibilities to:

Forest Whitley (too many injuries)
Brent Honeywell (I'm in)
McKay (I'm in)
McKenzie Gore (I'm in)

Will probably have to trade Bo + a lower prospect pitcher for one of those guys.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#364516) #
dalimon5, you chose 4 players plus Bo.


It is possible:-

1) 1-3 bust. Todd Van Popple.

2) You acquire a bust and give away a solid player.


3) Do top pitching prospects or top hitting prospects have a higher success rate?

The Gm that traded a success for a bust usually gets fired. Except Bean and Ken Williams.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#364521) #
3) Do top pitching prospects or top hitting prospects have a higher success rate?

Hitting prospects because of injury risk
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#364548) #
If it was about safest pick I wouldn't be interested in a starting pitcher, to your point, but it's about winning and you need to take chances to do that. Finding ace pitching is the hardest thing to do and although I wouldn't trade a SS for SP, in this case I would if I felt comfortable with the depth that I had if I were the GM. It's not unreasonable to think that Smith will be a better player than Bo.

I'd trade Stroman/Sanchez and Bo for the best pitching prospects I could get...something resembling what the Padres/Rays have and what the NYM had in deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler.

By 2020 you would be looking at Pardinho, acquired SP prospect, acquired SP prospect, Pearson, Borucki, Reid Foley.

Of course, I think you're overeating Bichete and I font think any of those arms I targeted would be traded period. Kind of like when we had Sanchez and wouldn't trade him. We need to find a foolish GM who will overpay for a Stroman or Sanchez.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#364553) #
Thanks hypobole and dalimon5 for your input. This helps me add to my thought guidelines.

These are very risky trades to make. Not easy to make them. We do have our potential SS of the future in Bo and K Smith. Both are close to the Majors. Bo (AAA) and K Smith (AA) next year. Offense and defense and next years progress are key evaluations.

I am speaking in "thought guidelines", sorry that I cannot give an explanation of what I mean.

So I disregard Tulo.

Any position prospect's defense can be 90% evaluated in AA and AAA. Correct ??? It is the hitting that is harder to evaluate in most cases.
So Bo comes up next year, hopefully August and plays regularly at 2B or SS (Tulo). 200ABs 2019. 350ABs 2020, before a successful K Smith (AAA) gets called up in 2020. Bo has had 550ABs, K Smith 100-200ABs. At the end of 2020 we have a lot of info on Bo and some on K Smith.


I know this is projection/fantasy and so unrealistic. Too much "suppose this and that". Now make the trade of Bo or K Smith. Bo is "fan favorite and successful or "oh
oh ML pitching is a work in progress".

Give him time to adjust to ML pitching or if "fan favorite who is tearing it up". We trade him for an unproven Halladay or a K Drabek. Future Ace.





greenfrog - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#364559) #
I'm still very high on BIchette. Lawrie and Barreto are interesting comps. I like Bichette a bit better than those players because of:

- Age (very slightly younger than Lawrie and Barreto at the same level)
- Position (higher probability as a good-fielding MI player than the other two)
- Slightly better K and BB rate
- Slightly better wRC+ despite comparable or lower BABIP
- Very strong post-AS break performance this year (746 pre / 891 post)
- Coming off tremendous 2017 season

Btw, BIchette is 1/1 so far tonight with his 43rd double of the season.
ayjackson - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#364561) #
There's a reason that finding an Ace starter is the hardest thing to do and it goes something like TINSTAAPP. So there's no way I throw away a potential shortstop for one.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#364564) #
If you want the safer pick you're right. If you want to compete against the Yankees/Red Sox then either spend the most or find the ace pitchers via trade.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#364566) #
I think TB can compete with NYY and Boston with half the budget.. They have a system. When they are in their 3-5 year window, I think they can compete and maybe beat NYY and Boston.
scottt - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#364567) #
One ace pitcher won't make a difference against the Yankees/Red Sox. Did you miss the Roy Halladay era?
They need 4 or 5 All-Star position players to have a chance.
Our lone All-Star this year was Happ.

scottt - Wednesday, August 29 2018 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#364568) #
TB has never really done it. They've had a run in which they drafted early, like Houston, and used that to build a strong farm system. But now, they don't keep players long enough to make a strong push, as they keep trading them after a few years to renew the farm. They're like some sort of AAAA club.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#364573) #
Scottt,

You sound like someone that isn't familiar with the Rays system. They have an embarrassment of riches in their system especially high ceiling pitchers.

Nobody said "we only need one ace pitcher and that is all." That's you reading only what you want to read. The argument was to trade potential surplus prospect capital from the infield in order to acquire SP capital with ace potential. The idea that we would advocate trading the bulk of our prospects only to have a team built around an ace is something that you're the only one considering/reading as a proposal.

The fact is that the Roy Halladay era had no farm system or prospect capital like the current one, so it's really a bad example and reference for you to bring up.

The proposition would be a Pineda/Montero challenge trade. And I will actually challenge you with this:

The only way to beat the NYY/BOS of the future will be with better SP.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#364574) #
And I did watch the Halladay era...religeously. Kevin Mench, Lyle Overpay, Vernon Wells in decline, Chris Gomez/Royce Clayton/John McDonald, Corey Koskie in decline...who else was he surrounded with...Greg Zaun, Troy Claus, Orlando Hudson...

Yeah I don't know, I think I'll take a team now centred around Halladay in his prime with Vlad and the rest of our farm system any day.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#364575) #
Wow apologies for the typos those are legitimate auto corrections (Lyle Overpay) that's too funny.
Spifficus - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#364576) #
Build the core in place first, then trade for / sign what you're missing after. I don't see any reason do deviate from that, and I'm pretty high on Bichette, so unless there's an offer that must be taken, I wouldn't be dealing him in the near future.
John Northey - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 02:13 AM EDT (#364577) #
Agreed Spifficus - Bichette seems like a guy we'd be super-excited about if it wasn't for Vlad.  With both and Jansen the Jays should be building a killer core.  McKinney still is at the 'wow' stage and might finally have found a home...lets hope.  Gurriel should be good no matter what position he ends up at.  Lots of nice stuff at or near the majors.  Get Alford back on track and Tellez being for real and it could become a team of offensive riches.  Nice to have decent prospects in AA/AAA/majors at so many positions (3B/SS/1B/LF/RF and plays anywhere in Gurriel).  Just need some pitchers to emerge and the Jays could be laughing in 2019 and beyond.

Realistically though, we've been here many times before.  In the mid-90's we had crazy talent here post-WS years with Delgado, Wells, Green, Stewart, Hudson, Cruz Jr, etc. Plus a rotation with 3 wonder kids (Halladay/Carpenter/Escobar) who the team never did quite figure out what to do with. Sigh.  What could've been.  Luckily the front office today seems a LOT smarter than it was then.
scottt - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#364578) #
I don't know by what calculation Bichette could be considered surplus.
Diaz is a nice depth piece, but that's about that.
Guerriel hasn't shown he can field the position.
Tulo might have a bump back next year, but that's it.

The current FO likes to develop shortstops because they can move anywhere, not because they can be traded.

The Rays have offloaded 9 of their best 12 2017 players. I would hope they'd have a decent farm system.
Gone are Souza Jr, Morrison, Longoria, Dickerson, Cobb, Hech, Hunter, Archer and Beckham.
If we'd be the Rays, we'd move Grichuk, Pillar, Diaz, Smoak, Martin, Stroman, Sanchez, Tepera, Morales and they'd be nobody in the stands.

dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#364579) #
Ask yourself who the Rays have brought in at the same time they shipped those guys out. Blash, Meadows, Glasnow, Anthony Banda, Nick Solak and Arroyo. I think any team would trade those players for those prospects even if they don't penny pinch like the Rays.

The reason they sold 9 of their 12 best players (Half of which were not good enough to trade), is because they had younger and better options in the minors to start grooming. Jay's are in a similar position now. Now look, if Shapkins and company begin acting like a real market baseball team then yeah, don't trade away your young players...but they seem stuck in the middle now having traded away Osuna and likely to not bring back Donaldson.

Will be an interesting offseason that's for sure. Frustrating to see the Rays get better with less assets than the Jay's in one year. Why do they sell high and we sell low?
uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#364580) #
I tried to make it clear in my post but maybe something got lost in the comparisons - Bichette is still a great prospect, with a good chance of developing into a star player, and a very good chance of being a very good player.

His bat profiles as still well over league average, which will play at any position, and especially well at SS. And he's so young that there's plenty of chance that he pops and becomes much more with the bat than even that.
uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#364581) #
"Why do they sell high and we sell low?"

helps that they're honest about what they do and why they do it. makes everything clearer for them.

of course, the fact that we're envious of the rays' treadmill mediocrity doesn't exactly feel great. though I imagine that's exactly the model we're looking at going forward - and even though we have plenty of money, I'm not sure the effective application of that model really leaves much room to spend money to keep our elite players at free agent market prices at any point - because that is always an inefficient expenditure, and an inefficient use of assets.

I imagine the only edge we'll have on the Rays is that we'll be able to spend more each year on outside free agents - but that will most likely mean 2nd/3rd tier short term free agents instead of the strict bottom of the barrel free agents the rays target, and I'm not sure that's all that much of an advantage.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#364582) #
UO, how would the model you proposed a couple of years ago - big extensions/signings of Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Price, Fowler, and yes, even Cain - not have led to even more entrenched mediocrity? The front office has been doing a decent job of rebuilding the farm with good drafting, IFA signings (Pardinho, Orelvis, Gurriel, et al.), and converting lesser FAs (Smith, Oh, Pearce) into useful prospects. I really donít understand all the complaining.
hypobole - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#364583) #
The Rays have offloaded 9 of their best 12 2017 players. I would hope they'd have a decent farm system.
Gone are Souza Jr, Morrison, Longoria, Dickerson, Cobb, Hech, Hunter, Archer and Beckham.
If we'd be the Rays, we'd move Grichuk, Pillar, Diaz, Smoak, Martin, Stroman, Sanchez, Tepera, Morales and they'd be nobody in the stands.

You make it seem what Tampa did was a negative, whereas it's almost the total opposite. Souza has been worth 0.1 WAR this year, Longoria 0.4, Beckham 0.1. So they got prospects and let other teams overpay for declines.

They let Morrison and Hunter walk in FA. Morrison has been worth -0.3 WAR. Hunter has held his value, 1.2 WAR, but for 2 yrs/$18 million it's not exactly surplus value. They gave Cobb a QO and got a draft pick. Cobb has been worth 0.9 WAR so far on a 4 yr $57 million deal for the O's.

Hech is replacement level, Tampa had to cover most of his salary to get rid of him.The Archer deal may be early, but already looking like a coup for Tampa.

So Dickerson is the only player Tampa maybe coulda shoulda held onto.

If our FO had done a similar firesale this past offseason, or even the year before, would we be any worse off? Or would we be far better off? Oh, and we're not exactly playing to packed houses, either, despite holding on to our "stars".


John Northey - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#364584) #
The Rays method could be nice here as the Jays have about $100 million more per year to spend on payroll.  Thus no need to trade guys because they get expensive or to avoid trading for key pieces (ala Tulo, Donaldson, etc.) when needed plus able to sign key free agents (ala Martin) when needed and eat money late in the contract.
uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#364586) #
"UO, how would the model you proposed a couple of years ago - big extensions/signings of Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Price, Fowler, and yes, even Cain - not have led to even more entrenched mediocrity? "

well, imo we'd likely have been a better team in these years, and most all of those deals will have likely expired by the time our new jays will next try to contend.

would the injuries still have prevented us from contending? probably. But at least we would have given it a real shot, and not just thrown away a back to back ALCS team as if it wasn't something rare. And it wouldn't have hurt the rebuild any.

The 2nd best option would have been what many here wanted - a full on tear down. I would have disagreed, but it would have at least contributed to a stronger rebuild. Instead of fringy guys like grichuk/McKinney/Teoscar/Gurriel/pannone/paulino we could probably have netted us a couple of real top-end guys that would already be on the verge of contributing.

uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#364587) #
"Thus no need to trade guys because they get expensive or to avoid trading for key piece"

definitely no "need" for that - but the fact that we have more money doesn't change the fact that paying market price for players is always inefficient, and trading those guys for cheaper younger pieces and spending the difference on middling free agents will always make more sense value-wise.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#364590) #
Another point...the way I see it the Rays are not a mediocre team going forward for the next 3-5 years. I expect them to displace either the Yankees or Red Sox next year. Performance declines are happening at an alarming rate to players past 30. That means Stanton and Sale (IMHO) will start to decline (read: still extremely valuable but the decline will begin more rapidly especially with the pitcher).

Tanaka, Betances, Chapman, JDM, Sale... these guys will start to decline rapidly and because of that the NYY and BOS will have to rely on their awesome young players to carry them. By next year end of year I consider the Rays to be as good with their core if not better and Toronto not far behind. My rationale for this "evening" of the division is simple: free agency does not help teams as much as in the past because of the new speed/athleticism/stat cast etc elements of MLB. The youngest guys who can make an impact via free agency...Nolan Arenado (29 in 2019) or Harper/Machado now. The days of signing Manny Ramirez and Mike Missing to save your franchise is done.

Consider the young cores coming up;

BOS
Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts (Free agent after 2019), Devers, Groome, Chavis, Rodriguez

NYY
Andujar, Didi, Torres, Judge, Severing, Sheffield, Florian, Sanchez

TB
Snell, Adames, Honeywell, McKay, Jesus Sheffield, Bauers, Banda, Solak, de Leon, Wander Franco

TOR
Vlad, Bichete, Biggio, Jansen, McKinney (marginal), Hernandez, Pearson, Pardinho, Smith


Looking at that list, TB has the best pitching advantage. If Stroman and Sanchez stick around and perform then in my books Toronto is up there with TB.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#364593) #
Since 30-something free agents are so out of favour at the moment, one of the current market inefficiencies to take advantage of might be identifying 30-somethings who still have a lot of value to offer (the Jays did this nicely with Happ and to a lesser extent with Smith and Oh) as opposed to those like Bautista and Encarnacion who declined rapidly a year or two after people wanted them extended long-term.
uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#364594) #
you're really working this Encarnacion theme to the bone, eh?

EE had a 135wrc+ his last year with the Jays, a 132wrc+ his first year with the Indians, and a 113wrc+ now....though that's based on a low babip and his usual slow start, and his 2nd half 136wrc+ will likely continue to bring his season totals up back to his usual levels.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#364596) #
Ugly I don't read greenfrog's post as a slag on EE, he is simply pointing out the flavour at the time to extend Batista and Encarnacion since they are the best example of mid 30 players looking for larger deals in recent memory. I don't think his post is saying anything about the quality of the contract that EE did end up signing after the Jay's decided to pass on a longer term offer.

I once felt earlier in this off season that the Jay's should take on bad contracts or sign older players to augment the youth movement but since then I have changed my stance as the value just hasn't been there this year compared to past seasons.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#364597) #
What the Jays need to do is make a Josh Donaldson to Toronto type trade again this offseason. If you look at that trade again or similar trade last off season with Christian Yellich then I don't see how the Jay's can make that trade without including a Bo Bichete. That's a statement not an indictment of Bo. Further, who would be the 2019 off season get version of Donaldson '15 or Yellich '18 on a team willing to trade for an up and coming top 15 prospect?
hypobole - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#364599) #
Wasn't the scuttlebutt the Jays did offer Bo for Yelich, but the Marlins insisted on Vlad?
bpoz - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#364600) #
Earlier in this thread we were discussing the TB system. The Jay's also have a system. Our system is between the RT and NYY/Boston system.


Regarding payroll Boston, NYY and Toronto often have bad contracts because they extend their players accordingly or sign expensive FAs.


TB does not sign expensive FAs the way Boston and NYY do.


Toronto signed FA R Martin to an expensive contract. JD is making $23mil in arb. Tulo and his expensive contract were traded for.
TB does not do this sort of thing. Ok, Longoria was extended to an expensive contract. No rich FA signings. I cannot think of an expensive Arb player that they signed.

So $63 mil paid to Tulo, Martin and JD cannot happen to TB. Sorry for the cherry picking but that $63 mil is a big part of this years budget. They were great in 2016 and cheaper too. Payroll unknown.

We hope to extend our good young players. TB almost never does. They cannot afford it. They could let them walk as FAs or trade them for V good prospects. They never have to worry about fan backlash. If they win or lose their fans care much less than other teams fans.


Because TB is a small market team:
1)They get better compensation for losing a FA than we do.
2)They get small market draft compensation picks along with the higher bonus pool.
3)They get a higher Int'l signing pool.


It is possible that they cannot afford to spend all the surplus drafting money they receive. They are not obliged to. They can also trade their surplus Int'l pool money.

In conclusion TB has a superior built in talent acquisition benefit in certain very important areas.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#364602) #
I wouldn't do Bo for Yellich it would have to be Bo for a player like Yellich but a starter. Think Gerrit Cole on Pirates.

Teams that may be looking to sell good young players that don't fit their window perfectly. My list would be:

NYM
4 SPs with varying degrees of competence in deGrom, Matz, Thor and Wheeler

KC
Danny Duffy

PIT
Chris Archer

COL
Jon Gray


Out of that list I wouldn't trade Bo for anyone but deGrom so maybe it doesn't hold a lot of water this idea.

uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#364603) #
I don't really get the TBay envy. Our system is as good as theirs. BA just ranked us 2 and 3 in mlb, i think. And they don't have a Vladdy unless Franco is in AAA sometime soon.

Their current roster, with age and projections going forward:

SP Snell (25): 3.51era, 3.5war32
SP Glasnow (24): 3.85era, 3.2war32
SP Stanek (26): 3.99era, 2.5war32
SP Honeywell (22): 4.12era
SP Faria (24): 4.45era, 1.1war32
SP Beeks (24): 4.47era, 1.3war32
SP Wood (24): 4.54era, 1.0war32


LF Pham (30): 114wrc+, 2.7war650
1B Choi (27): 107wrc+, 1.0war650
DH Cron (28): 107wrc+, 0.9war650
3B Duffy (27): 97wrc+, 2.4war650
RF Smith (25): 96wrc+, 2.0war650
CF Kiermaier (28): 91wrc+, 3.6war650
SS Adames (22): 88wrc+, 1.7war650
2B Wendle (28): 86wrc+, 1.8war650
C Perez (26): 74wrc+, 1.0war650

OF Meadows (23): 101wrc+, 1.0war650
UT Bauers (22): 99wrc+, 1.2war650
UT Solak (23): 91wrc+, 1.0war650
UT Lowe (23): 90wrc+, 1.0war650
UT Arroyo (23): 85wrc+, 0.0war650
C Sucre (30): 61wrc+, 1.0war650



looking at that.....could it be clearer what Shapiro is trying to emulate?
hypobole - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#364607) #
BA just ranked us 2

No it was the Rays at 2, and that was before they added Shane Baz
uglyone - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#364609) #
"ranked us 2 and 3"

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-5-farm-systems-for-four-or-more-years/

dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#364616) #
"looking at that.....could it be clearer what Shapiro is trying to emulate?"

I think TB copied Shapiro and has gotten results faster because they didn't trade away as much and didn't have the catch 22 of competing with bigger stars in their line up.

I don't think TB has a better system, although it is better...I mean it's kind of a wash, but I think that unless the Jays can sign Stroman/Sanchez and get them working like in their peak years...I would rather take the TB system because of the pitching. If the Jays can trade or sign some pitching or turn their own guys around then I'll take the Jays, but that TB rotation you have looks mighty enticing and it doens't even include McKay or Leon or Baz. It is an absolute embarrassment of pitching riches that they have. Imagine if we had two Nate Pearsons, two Eric Pardinho's and a Stroman and Sanchez reaching the majors instead of Borucki and Reid-Foley. That's a big difference.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#364617) #
If it was any other division in baseball I would take the Jays in a heartbeat but with the ballparks and line ups of AL EAST I will take the richer pitching system.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#364618) #
Between Happ, Osuna and Donaldson the Jays would have been able to at least equal the haul the Rays received for Eovaldi and Archer. In that scenario the Jays very likely have the best farm system in baseball right now with Glasnow, Meadows, Baz and Beeks.
hypobole - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#364620) #
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-5-farm-systems-for-four-or-more-years/

Thanks for the link to the paywall.

So are there different lists, because this non-paywalled site seems to think Rays are #2


https://www.draysbay.com/2018/8/8/17665338/mlb-prospect-ranking-baseball-america-ranks-rays-farm-system-second-in-mlb
Glevin - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#364622) #
I would always take hitters over pitchers. Pitching is so unpredictable. Jays system may be a tick behind the Rays but right now, the Jays system is about as good as anyoneís. Iíll take the elite offensive prospect anyday.
Spifficus - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#364625) #
Paywall or not, that link doesn't make any sense in the context of the conversation - it's a look at historical multi-year runs of a farm system. So unless the ranking of the 87-89 and 91-95 Blue Jays are relevent, I'm confused. Or it was a mis-link.
dalimon5 - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#364626) #
"I would always take hitters over pitchers. Pitching is so unpredictable. Jays system may be a tick behind the Rays but right now, the Jays system is about as good as anyoneís. Iíll take the elite offensive prospect anyday."

Only way I would agree with this (even with SP volatility) is if I had the confidence in management to make the Verlander/Cole type trades. I guess it's possible with Shapkins. I would actually prefer that route.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#364635) #
I would always take hitters over pitchers. Pitching is so unpredictable. Jays system may be a tick behind the Rays but right now, the Jays system is about as good as anyoneís. Iíll take the elite offensive prospect anyday.


Same. Give me hitters. Give me all the hitters.
hypobole - Thursday, August 30 2018 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#364641) #
Paywall or not, that link doesn't make any sense in the context of the conversation - it's a look at historical multi-year runs of a farm system.

Link posted by Loki the Trickster.
uglyone - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#364651) #
hmm. thought that was a different link. pretty sure I saw rays/jays ranked 2/3 somewhere.

this isn't it but mlb ranked them 4/5 this month: https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-farm-systems-in-mlb/c-288576958?tid=151437456
uglyone - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#364652) #
ah here it is. rays/jays ranked 2/3 this week by BA:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/

Loki? well, I am a Gemini through and through, true enough.
Spifficus - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#364688) #
Ok, that one makes a lot more sense. The article, that is. Though probably the Gemini bit as well.
uglyone - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#364691) #
"Most reasonable people who mock something with wrong info are contrite when they find out. Other people double-down..."
Spifficus - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#364697) #
That was intended as a playful joke riffing off your reference, not an insult. If you took offense, I apologise.
bpoz - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#364698) #
Is Sanchez a FA after the 2020 season? Stroman after 2019? If so this does not sound fair. They just got here. Also their injury time cost us prime cheap years.
uglyone - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#364700) #
here I thought that was you taking offense to my joke.
Spifficus - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#364701) #
I'm a lot sleep deprived due to things going (not literally) boom at work, so I may have missed something.
scottt - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#364706) #
From our point of view, yes. The players are always eager to hit free agency and leave.
Is a cheap Sanchez being injured worse than an expensive Donaldson?
I'd settle for Sanchez going back to his 97mph heater and the ERA he had in 2016.
Even if he's on the DL half the time.

hypobole - Friday, August 31 2018 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#364708) #
The new baseballs have really screwed up both Sanchez and Stroman.
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