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New Hampshire and Dunedin won, Lansing lost two, Buffalo were rained out. Now that April is behind us, it's time to look at which prospects played up to their level and which disappointed in the first month of the season. Don't read too much into April numbers. In many locations the weather is an obstacle and for others they are getting used to a new level. By the end of May teams will have played over a third of the season and that will be a better measure.

Pawtucket at Buffalo - Postponed

Doubleheader on Thursday

First we will look at who is playing well. The fact that Lourdes Gurriel and Cavan Biggio are hitting is not news. Richard Urena and Roemon Fields are doing OK. None of the starting pitchers are playing well. The best of them is Jacob Waguespack who has a WHIP of 1.5 and an ERA of 4.62. Among the relievers Dusty Isaacs is standing out. He has a zero ERA with 19 K's in 13.2 innings.

On the negative side, Anthony Alford continues to disappoint with 30 strikeouts in 65 at-bats. Reese McGuire is also not hitting. Among the pitchers SRF and Shawn Morimando are being hit around the park.


New Hampshire 4 Trenton 1

New Hampshire were outhit 8-5 but a grand slam from Alberto Mineo was the difference. Yennsy Diaz pitched well, five innings, six hits one walks, five K's.

When only one hitter has an OPS over 800, it's hard to say there are offensive standouts. Thirteen hitters have gone to the plate for NH and six of them are hitting under .200 and four more at .250 or under. The only hitters over .250 are Mineo, Forrest Wall and Santiago Espinal. Mineo would be the biggest over achiever as Wall and Espinal are repeating AA. Among the starters Yennsy Diaz has pitched well, especially given his age and relative inexperience. Andrew Sopko has also pitched well, he has the lowest WHIP among the starters. Also don't forget Kirby Snead and his 0.37 WHIP. Bryan Baker has pitched nine innings and still has a zero ERA. He has only allowed two hits in those nine innings. But, he has walked seven with 12 K's.

On the disappointing side we have to start with Kevin Smith who is not hitting and is striking out 30% of the time. Chad Spanberger and Brock Lundquist are hitting under .200. On the pitching side, Hector Perez has a WHIP of 2.75, ouch! The nearest WHIP to him is Andrew Case at 1.80 and he retired.


Daytona 2 Dunedin 8

It was Nate Pearson's turn for a two inning start, five K's, ho-hum. Turner Larkins pitched four innings, seven hits, not so good, seven strikeouts, yes, good. Christian Williams went 4-4 including a home run. Cullen Large had two doubles. Cal Stevenson had two hits, maybe starting to get used to high A.

Riley Adams and Cullen Large are hitting well. Adams is still only 22 while Large is 23. This is a good time for both to start hitting. The starting pitching in Dunedin has been excellent, each of Nate Pearson, Maximo Castillo and Nick Allgeyer have excellent numbers.

On the below expectations side are Chavez Young, Cal Stevenson and Demi Orimoloye. For Stevenson, Dunedin is a big jump so he might need time to adjust, but Chavez's performance is disappointing after his good 2018. Among the pitchers Emerson Jimenez has a WHIP over 2.


Wisconsin 8 Lansing 3 - game 1
Wisconsin 2 Lansing 1 - game 2

Game one was a continuation of a game postponed yesterday. Cobi Johnson took over from Sean Wymer, he went 5.1 innings with just two hits allowed. The Lugnuts had only four hits, Ryan Gold had two of them. Game two was shaping up to be a pitchers duel, Fitz Stadler was on the mound. But in the fifth Wisconsin got some runners on. A single brought in one run and then a squeeze brought in the second. That squeezed in run was the winner. Lansing had six hits, Nick Podkul have half of them and scored the only run.

Jordan Groshans and Alejandro Kirk have received attention for their hitting. Jake Brodt has also hit well and Reggie Pruitt is off to a good start. Josh Winkowski has been the best of the starters although its worth noting that Joey Murray leads in strikeouts with 33 in 24.2 innings.

The prospects in Lansing are hitting, some fringe guys like Ryan Gold and Dominic Abbadessa are finding it tougher. Juan DePaula has an ERA over 7.


3 Stars

3rd star: Yennsy Diaz

2nd star: Alberto Mineo

1st star: Christian Williams


Boxes

April's Movers and Shakers | 46 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:51 AM EDT (#373493) #
McGuire is not hitting, but he's a backup catcher and he still has a better line than Maile.
He just need to run into one here and there to be decent.

Glevin - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#373503) #
Overall, minor league teams not doing great but the prospects who have played so far have been generally doing well. Only big disappointment so far of a top guy is Smith IMO and it's still very early.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#373505) #
Ryan Feierabend starts for Buffalo today.
hypobole - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#373507) #
Wonder who is going to catch.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#373508) #
Reese McGuire is the lucky guy. I believe Feierabend is an occasional knuckleballer, not an exclusive one. I think the knuckleball is one of his pitches, like a curve or slider for another pitcher.
jerjapan - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#373509) #
I'm a sucker for the knuckler, so glad to see Feierabend getting into action.
Cal Stevenson is a hard guy to figure out.  Watching him explode last season was fun, but when he started showing up in top prospect lists I didn't know what to make of him - he was a senior sign, $1000 bonus pick- more like a 38th rounder than the 10th round pick used on him.  He jumped from the Appy league all the way to high A.   I can't see the weather in Dunedin contributing to his slow start, but aside from a big first game, he had a terrible April and only now seems to be finding his footing.  The .230 BABIP isn't helping. 


uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#373510) #
I don't exactly remember what I had as a top-20 this offseason, but i can get it in the ballpark.


Top-5 Prospects

3B Guerrero (20, MLB): 21pa, 14.3b%/28.6k%, .250bip/.167avg, .056iso, 47wrc+
3B Guerrero (20, AAA): 33pa, 9.1b%/6.1k%, .320bip/.367avg, .333iso, 180wrc+

Hasn't got it going in the show yet but it's only a matter of time. Crushed AAA again to start.


SS Bichette (21, AAA): 59pa, 8.5b%/16.9k%, .286bip/.250avg, .154iso, 80wrc+

Not ideal but we're talking 10gms here, first 5 which were useless, the last 5 very good.


C Jansen (24, MLB): 79pa, 8.9b%/26.6k%, .280bip/.200avg, .057iso, 49wrc+

Just not making any hard contact yet, but really the most important thing here is that he's once again showing that he's a legit MLB defensive catcher.


SP Pearson (22, ---): 21.0ip, 46.7k%/4.0b%, .229bip, 0.86era, 1.68fip, 1.05xfip

Utter dominance, but old for the level. Kinda wasting time here, imo.


SP Pardinho (18, ---): ---

n/a


So far mixed results for the top 5 but overall encouraging and no real worry spots there.



#6-10 Prospects

SP R-Foley (23, AAA): 19.0ip, 26.7k%/19.8b%, .400bip, 10.42era, 6.88fip, 6.18xfip

disastrous start for SRF. starting to remind me of Daniel Norris' huge swings in performance.

SS Smith (22, AA): 96pa, 6.3b%/28.1k%, .250bip/.191avg, .112iso, 63wrc+

Not quite as disastrous SRF, but pretty damn bad.

3B Groshans (19, A): 84pa, 13.1b%/20.2k%, .426bip/.342avg, .164iso, 169wrc+

Fantastic start to full season ball for Groshans. a little babip dependent for my tastes, but no doubt great for a guy young for the level anyways.

2B Biggio (24, AAA): 93pa, 21.5b%/17.2k%, .404bip/.361avg, .264iso, 186wrc+

Even better looking line than last year. Elite zone control and all the power is still there. A little babip heavy but he's just demolishing the ball so far.

SP Kloffenstein (18, ---): ---

n/a

Two awful starts and two fantastic starts in the 6-10 spots, I guess that balances out.



Older Prospects in the 10-30 range:

Good:

1B Tellez (24, AAA): 90pa, 7.8b%/31.1k%, .277bip/.238avg, .263iso, 114wrc+

Sometimes forget that he was a non-prospect still even at the trade deadline last year. So while this isn't a perfect line, it's still pretty damn impressive.

SP Thornton (25, MLB): 28.1ip, 27.1k%/9.8b%, .306babip, 5.08era, 4.35fip, 3.85xfip

Legit solid MLB line through and through. A bit unlucky to have his ERA that high.

SS Urena (23, MLB): 35pa, 2.9b%/22.9k%, .417bip/.313avg, .094iso, 100wrc+
SS Urena (23, AAA): 32pa, 0.0b%/40.6k%, .526bip/.313avg, .188iso, 100wrc+

the underlying numbers are actually pretty terrible, but he's still been fine overall and showing good defense at both levels, and is finally age appropriate for his level.

OF Wall (23, AA): 98pa, 15.3b%/20.4k%, .362bip/.278avg, .114iso, 148wrc+

a legit good line, but old for the level.

C Adams (23, A+): 79pa, 17.7b%/20.3k%, .357bip/.295avg, .197iso, 193wrc+

a ridiculous line, but way old for the level.


OK:

SP Waguespack (25, AAA): 25.1ip, 24.3k%/8.1b%, .366bip, 4.62era, 4.41fip, 4.34xfip

SP Diaz (22, AA): 26.0ip, 22.0k%/10.1b%, .232bip, 3.81era, 4.78fip, 4.00xfip

SP Logue (23, AA): 28.0ip, 16.7k%/6.7b%, .279bip, 3.54era, 4.74fip, 4.18xfip

OF Palacios (23, AA): 45pa, 13.3b%/17.8k%, .276bip/.237avg, .132iso, 116wrc+

Decent lines across the board.


Bad:

UT Gurriel (25, MLB): 44pa, 6.8b%/27.3k%, .250bip/.175avg, .100iso, 43wrc+
UT Gurriel (25, AAA): 52pa, 1.9b%/17.3k%, .417bip/.388avg, .367iso, 193wrc+

Nice that he's hitting in AAA, but at 25 that's not much solace imo.

SP Borucki (25, ---): ---

injury might be very serious, unfortunately. really bad news.

OF McKinney (24, MLB): 96pa, 5.2b%/20.8k%, .269bip/.218avg, .103iso, 57wrc+

Pretty depressing line here.

SP Paulino (25, AAA): 17.2ip, 16.5k%/10.1b%, .321bip, 5.09era, 5.18fip, 5.91xfip

gross.

C McGuire (24, AAA): 63pa, 9.5b%/23.8k%, .268bip/.200avg, .091iso, 46wrc+

really dissappointing for a guy who was showing some upside.

OF Alford (24, AAA): 73pa, 8.2b%/41.1k%, .212bip/.138avg, .138iso, 26wrc+

good god. this might be the end for Alford as a prospect.

SP Zeuch (23, ---): ---

another significant injury for a prospect without much leeway.

SP Perez (23): 16.0ip, 27.9k%/17.4b%, .609bip, 10.69era, 3.86fip, 3.81xfip

pretty ugly, but some signs of hope here still.



Younger Prospects in the 10-30 range:

Good:

SP Castillo (20, A+): 27.0ip, 26.7k%/4.0b%, .246bip, 2.33era, 2.27fip, 2.68xfip

great line for a kid young for his level.

2B Taylor (20, A+): 79pa, 16.5b%/26.6k%, .293bip/.210avg, .113iso, 120wrc+

not great, but pretty good for a kid young for his level.

C Kirk (20, A): 91pa, 17.6b%/8.8k%, .313bip/.311avg, .230iso, 175wrc+

Utter demolition. Great stuff.

SP Winkowski (21, A): 26.0ip, 25.2k%/8.7b%, .298bip, 1.04era, 2.67fip, 3.02xfip

A bit old for the level, but still a very good line.


OK:

SS Vicuna (21, A+): 93pa, 11.8b%/24.7k%, .339bip/.241avg, .038iso, 96wrc+

Finally at an age appropriate level, and holding his own.

IF Lopez (20, A): 96pa, 10.4b%/19.8k%, .348bip/.286avg, .083iso, 110wrc+

missing the power he showed last year, but still solid overall.

C Danner (20, A): 73pa, 5.5b%/31.5k%, .205bip/.185avg, .292iso, 100wrc+

the only good thing here is the power, but for a catcher that might be enough.


Bad:

OF Contreras (20, A): 65pa, 6.2b%/46.2k%, .400bip/.200avg, .050iso, 41wrc+

A bit of a faceplant for mr.2 last names in his first season in full year ball.





Overall more good than bad, imo. The only real drawback so far has been a bunch of the middling older prospects faceplanting or getting injured. But those guys were pushing the definition of prospect even last year, so it's not too surprising.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#373511) #
That's a good summary, UO.  Although I am far from Gurriel Jr.'s biggest booster, I'd give him more credit than you do.  The age is not quite the barrier in his case than it is for most prospects.  I can imagine him as a .300/.340/.500 decent corner outfielder- something like Nick Castellanos or David Peralta.
John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#373512) #
Having McGuire and Jansen and Maile is a good situation. All are cheap for years still, all are good defensively, Jansen has the best bat potential. I like keeping McGuire in AAA until someone is hurt up here. Then you bring him up while whoever is hurt. Next year the same until all options are used up at which point you trade Maile or try to sneak him or McGuire to AAA via waivers. Could always flip the two of them at any point too. Maile needs 100 days in the minors to add another year to his pre-arb status, McGuire had 25 days in the majors last year, so he could probably be up the rest of the year without it costing the Jays a year of control.

At this point though I doubt the Jays care one bit about control over those 2. Both are viewed as backups and will need to do something amazing to get out of that status. I expect a flip of the two in June if Maile doesn't get his bat going soon to at least a 50 OPS+. Maile is at 31 right now, Jansen 49. Ugh. McGuire hitting 200/274/291 in AAA so isn't exactly forcing the issue. Patrick Cantwell is his backup in AAA hitting 280/308/320 so not exactly a wow either. AA has Alberto Mineo (24) 299/337/416 and Ryan Hissey (26) 243/349/351.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#373514) #
I think the farm system depth always looks a little thinner before short season ball starts and all the new shiny tows from the draft appear.

If we are looking a prospect succession plan I think a future top three of Bichette, Pearson and Groshans remains fairly solid.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#373515) #
I think we'll be happily adding Pardinho, Kloffenstein, and Moreno to that top group by the end of the year.

With the likes of Castillo, Kirk, Otto, Hiraldo, and that other new IFA maybe not so far behind.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#373516) #
Anthony Alford homered today, maybe there is hope. Cavan Biggio hit another one. And Ryan Feierbrand has leapfrogged to the top of the next available starter list with six innings of one run ball today.
Gerry - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#373518) #
UO, Riley Adams is 22, not sure he is old for Dunedin for a catcher. He turns 23 at the end of June.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#373519) #
On Future Jays I read about prospects being given 2-3 goals. Changing their diet, an exercise program, do something about their swing or defense are examples.

Grohans has to improve his footwork. Get to the ball, glove it, transfer to the throwing hand and make the throw on time and accurately. Plant the foot correctly.

Kirk: Diet I suppose. He has V good baseball skills hitting and defense. Also a high baseball IQ and is picking up English very fast. Not sure about how good he is at throwing out runners. That is complicated. Not just him but the lead of the runner and delivery of the pitch. Pop time what ever that is. He only goes to Dunedin when R Adams is promoted. They did not say what goals Adams had to achieve. So Kirk is blocked at the moment.

So we have McGuire. Riley and Kirk are progressing well. They could all be ready for Toronto at the beginning of 2021. McGuire may have used up all 3 options. R Adams would be on the 40 man roster for rule 5 protection if good enough. Kirks health and performance would dictate where he is. Unless he is categorized as staying in the minors because the 40 man spot is needed for an asset that has a chance to develop. Maybe his English needs more minor league development.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#373520) #
I think I have completely given up on Anthony Alford, which is sad because the organization as a whole is generally weak in the outfield.
Nigel - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#373521) #
That's a useful summary UO - I don't think the news is equally distributed. I think that there is far more good than bad news from the position players (with Smith and Alford being the only two who really stand out to me on the negative side). I think there's been far more bad news than good on the pitching side (with Pearson being the exception).
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#373522) #
Gerry - I use baseball age (like b/r and fgraphs use) so the cutoff for that is the end of june, midseason, so it's good to know that he's a very young 23. Still old for A+ imo, but maybe not as old as it looked at first.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#373523) #
Buffalo is leading 10-1. Alford is playing LF.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#373524) #
I was just checking in on Cal Stevenson, last 10 games:

0.263 / 0.341 / 0.395 - 0.736 OPS

11.4 BB%, 15.9%, 0.132 ISO%, 123 wRC+

That is probably what I expect him to finish his season line with.



uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#373526) #
Nigel - I actually don't see a ton of bad news on the pitching side either, but that's probably because I was so low on all the new middle aged "prospects" we got last year and in the offseason.

Of the full-season prospects I actually looked at as prospects, the quicklist would be:

Good: Pearson, Castillo, Winckowski
OK: Diaz
Bad: Borucki, SRF, Zeuch

and then, out of that smorgasbord of middling arms we got back in trades, honestly the fact that Thornton has already turned into decent MLB depth and Wague is a potential worthy emergency callup too is actually more than I expected out of that group this year.

So even on the pitching side, I see more good than bad.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#373529) #
I was expecting more for Murphy, and I really didn't think Paulino or Perez would be this bad. However I guess Perez will likely never have any control and Paulino hasn't had a good season in three years.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#373530) #
A long time ago I mentioned that Stroman got to the Majors fast. Drafted in 2012 and pitched in AA 2013. 166 IP in the minors before promotion. Healthy too.

Pearson has not been healthy. 42.2 IP so far. He could if healthy be in the Majors after 150-200 minor league innings pitched. Quite fast I think.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#373531) #
Min 20 PA, 2019 Curveball xwOBA:

05 - A. Sanchez - 0.152
13 - T. Thorton - 0.219

Thorton might be a one pitch pitcher at this point, but it is a really good pitch.
pubster - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#373539) #
So, was the 2 year playoff run worth not having a starting rotation of: Thor, Stroman, Sanchez, Boyd, x?
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#373540) #
Thor was gone long before the 2nd playoff run.

Was the 2nd playoff run worth not having Boyd, Hoffman, Norris now? Yup.
pubster - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#373541) #
Thor was a part of the push for the playoffs. The Jays didn't make the playoffs that year, but the trade was definitely a win now trade.

I think after the trade the Jays were betting favourites to win the World Series.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#373543) #
Those trades were absolutely worth it, given where the franchise was and how great 2015 and 2016 were.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#373544) #
We had major trades in the off season before 2013. Then we had major trades and a FA signing in the off season before 2015. Then major trades at the July 31/15 trade deadline. Then FA signings in the off season before 2016. A somewhat major trade at the July31/16 trade deadline.

We have non projected and extrapolated stats for the 2013-2016 seasons. Beside the 2 playoff years, Donaldson won the MVP.
bpoz - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#373545) #
We look at the drafts for example 200X and say these were the successful players.

The 2017 draft added a lot of college players that I was upset that we picked. But we signed them because they fit into the draft budget.
I am hopeful about Z Logue, 2017, who is doing ok so far in AA. For 2018 N Allgeyer if following that path. So 2 promising pieces like Matt Boyd. Maybe they work out.
scottt - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#373546) #
C Jansen (24, MLB): 79pa, 8.9b%/26.6k%, .280bip/.200avg, .057iso, 49wrc+
C McGuire (24, AAA): 63pa, 9.5b%/23.8k%, .268bip/.200avg, .091iso, 46wrc+

Not that different.

What I'm hoping is that McGuire being a left bat, they're deployed in a platoon advantage rather than with specific pitchers having their personal catchers.
Jansen had a great year when paired with McGuire and if you look, his OPS against lefties is over .900.

Also, I'm curious to hear how McGuire dealt with the knuckle ball.
grjas - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#373548) #
Those trades were absolutely worth it, given where the franchise was and how great 2015 and 2016 were.

I agree. After 20 years in the wilderness, going almost all-in was the right decision. What I donít understand is why some fans are surprised that after a plethora of trades, the team has sank in the standings for what will likely be a few years. Most of the top teams from those years are in a similar predicament.

John Northey - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#373551) #
Hmm...

2015 playoff teams:
NL
Chicago Cubs 16-12
Pittsburgh Pirates 14-14
New York Mets 15-15
Los Angeles Dodgers 20-13 first place
St. Louis Cardinals 20-10 first place

AL
Houston Astros 18-13 first place
New York Yankees 17-13
Toronto Blue Jays 14-16
Texas Rangers 14-15
Kansas City Royals 11-20 last place

I don't think most are sub 500... in fact 5 are above, 2 dead on, with the Jays & Rangers close, only the Royals suck.

2016
NL
San Francisco Giants 13-18 last place
New York Mets 15-15
Los Angeles Dodgers 20-13 First place
Washington Nationals 12-17
Chicago Cubs 16-12

AL
Toronto Blue Jays 14-16
Baltimore Orioles 11-21 last place
Cleveland Indians 16-13
Boston Red Sox 14-17
Texas Rangers 14-15

A bit different with just 3 teams over 500, 1 at, 6 under. 1 in first, 2 in last.

It does show how it takes time to recover from a 'all or nothing' run, but some with money can recover faster (Cubs, Yankees) while others take time (Royals, O's).
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#373552) #
Price 5gs, 77era-, 5.1war650
Osuna 13.1ip, 16era-, 3.7war65

Donaldson 119pa, 137wrc+, 3.8war650
Edwin 129pa, 135wrc+, 3.5war650
Martin 31pa, 152wrc+, 8.4war650
Tulo 13pa, 122wrc+, 0.0war650


Might have helped.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#373553) #
Martin and Tulo's combined 44 PA (and $40m in salary) in 2019 might have helped...?
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#373554) #
I would take the under on those numbers holding up in any real sample size...

Santiago Espinal is in CF for second time this week, I guess they jays are trying to create a few more options.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#373555) #
Also, Donaldson has been sidelined since Monday with a calf injury, and itís only the beginning of May ó a scenario that is all too familiar to Jays fans. Josh is off to a good start this year, but there are significant health risks there.
uglyone - Thursday, May 02 2019 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#373568) #
Wouldn't want to take any risks.
John Northey - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#373572) #
So 43 1/3 IP, 292 PA. Yeah, they all have done well in limited time, but that is the big bug there - limited time. Price and Osuna are most likely to stay healthy but both are pitchers and we all know how those can go down at any time for any length of time.

Also who would you want?

Price or $32 mil a year for the next 3 years?
Osuna or Ken Giles (ERA+ of 221, 0.5 WAR so far, 13 1/3 IP 2.44 WAR/65. Pretty close imo and as far as we know Giles doesn't beat up women.

Donaldson or Vlad & Drury
Edwin or Tellez (0.3 WAR in 90 PA = 2.17/650) or Smoak (0.6 WAR in 113 PA = 3.45 per 650 for a heck of a lot less money)?
Martin or Jansen (yeah, he has sucked this year)
Tulo or Galvis (0.8 WAR in 104 PA = 5 WAR/650)

Those are the choices. Yeah, I'd have loved to have kept Price but the price was too high for Rogers (someone would've had to go, odds are we wouldn't have had Happ v2 among others). If Osuna wasn't an a*****e he'd still be here but Giles has been a good one for one replacement and David Paulino has some potential still. Hector Perez (also part of the deal) is super-wild in AA right now (8.4 BB/9 vs 13.5 K/9 - 2019's Nuke LaLoosh).

I think I prefer what is here. Donaldson could still be a wow if healthy but that is the big if. Same with the rest. I think they were all pretty close to deadwood here (especially Tulo) and change was needed.
grjas - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#373586) #
Hmm...

I was basing my comments on last yearís in division results where half the teams finished third place or worse in their division, similar to the Jays. In retrospect, saying most 2015/16 playoff teams are now like the Jays is probably pushing it, but their current circumstances arenít that unusual after their big push.
dalimon5 - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#373587) #
Nate Pearson promoted to NH.
bpoz - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#373595) #
We made the playoffs in 2015 and 2016. I am very happy about that. We got there/earned it with a fantastic late charge in 2015 and incredible rotation health in 2016.

In 2015 we advanced to meet KC through luck (bat flip). Then KC was lucky to advance past us. So luck ruled IMO.

In 2016 we won the WC game. Luck again?? Showalter did not bring in his closer for some reason. Was that luck?

The 2012 team had some good power hitters. EE, Bautista, Kelly Johnson, C Rasmus and JP Arencibia. The rotation had a v good B Morrow but he only lasted 21 starts and 125 IP. B Lawrie and C Rasmus were on the team via trade.

Was the 2012 team good enough to contend in 2013 with the additions? For some reason they fell short. IMO the Marlins fleeced us. Big contracts, prone to injury players and players that may have been in their prime but were aging.

So a 6 year window was opened 2013 to 2018.

We did have some successful results. Most importantly the payroll jumped up.

I did not mention the pen and defense. The pen was quite good.
rafael - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#373600) #
I think Bichette and Alford get extra points for strong Spring training starts ..considering how small sample size reg season so far. but yah Alford is running put of time as others added to the competition
grjas - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#373607) #
Shame about Alford. Great speed and defence and a decent guy. May be swinging too much for the fences after ST results, but he has struggled an awful lot over the years. Really hope he finally puts together especially now Pompey is such a long shot.
hypobole - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#373616) #
Don't know if anyone else who's seen Alford play this year has had the same observation, but he can't recognize good sliders. I haven't watched many Bisons games, but the one's I've seen, he kept swinging and missing, especially down and in.
lexomatic - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#373623) #
C Jansen (24, MLB): 79pa, 8.9b%/26.6k%, .280bip/.200avg, .057iso, 49wrc+
C McGuire (24, AAA): 63pa, 9.5b%/23.8k%, .268bip/.200avg, .091iso, 46wrc+

Not that different.

What I'm hoping is that McGuire being a left bat, they're deployed in a platoon advantage rather than with specific pitchers having their personal catchers.
Jansen had a great year when paired with McGuire and if you look, his OPS against lefties is over .900.

Also, I'm curious to hear how McGuire dealt with the knuckle ball.
Just a reminder Scott, one is in AAA, and the other is in MLB. It's still a big difference. I think they're both better than that, though. 
I also don't think McGuire has yet shown the offensive ability to be the main platoon guy - though maybe can get a half decent average/some power & plate discipline package to go with the defense. Jansen is just so much better offensively, and getting better defensively.
scottt - Friday, May 03 2019 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#373638) #
Yeah, no. I just meant McGuire gets one right handed starter per series and Jansen tries to take all the lefties.  McGuire is clearly the backup, but I expect him to outhit Maile.
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