Nice to finally get to watch another game.
Too bad it had to be Sanchez.

Disclosure: Sanchez was the starter when I caught a game in the dome last year and he picked up a W.

This is a huge audition for Stroman.
He has to show that he can perform in the Bronx to interest the Yankees and that he can beat the Yankees to interest everyone else.

"Sanchez was the starter when I caught a game in the dome"

Hey, you're secretly Luke Maile? Cool!

It would be great if Stroman is on his game on Sunday. The Yankees have an outstanding lineup and Yankees stadium is a bandbox. It would help if the Jays' defense is on its game and doesn't give New York extra outs to work with.

Dylan Bundy's pitching line (against TB) after one inning tonight:

1 8 7 7 0 1

Ouch.

Did Buck just say 103 career RBIs for EE in 176 ABs with the bases loaded? That actually doesn't sound that great at all. It sounds... pretty bad, actually.

And those don't appear to be Edwin's numbers anyway. BB-ref has him with 180 RBIs in 175 ABs with the bases loaded. That's more like it (he's hit .337/.387/.619). I suspect someone was looking at the wrong column. (Not necessarily Buck, could be whoever did the game notes.)

If anyone should have noticed, it should have been Tabler whose work with the sacks full was the Stuff of Legend (.489/.505/.693) and who drove in 108 runs in 88 ABs with the bases loaded.

I heard that too and thought the same thing -- it's didn't sound very impressive. Then he started talking about how some guys just really like hitting with the bases loaded and aren't scared of it and how Edwin was one of those guys... They also spent 4 innings talking about how sharp Sanchez looked tonight but alas... the 5th inning happened.

Production. Production. RBIs.
Errors.
Trying or not trying to do too much.

It's like a broken record.

Last night Pat thought the Jays didn't know what they wanted to hit against German.
Mostly watching the fastballs and the changeups and swinging at the curves.

Last week, Pat was mystified by "fWAR".
Maybe he was thinking of a 4 letter word.

4 good innings out of Sanchez.

Agreed. The team is unlistenable. Forget Free Agents on the field, Rogers should spend in the booth. The older crew may have dim memories of Buck as a player (all I remember is him being bowled over and annoyed when he got starts over Ernie Whitt) and some of his less-than-stellar stint as manager. Other than history, I can't think of any other reason to have him in the booth.

If Rogers wants a Blue Jays connection, then throw some cash David Cone's way to lure him from the Yankees. He's good or even if you don't like him, then prehaps you'll concede he is at least better than Buck/Tabler.

I missed the pitch tracker on the telecast last night. Also, while it was a hustle play, Vlad Jr. didn't show good baseball sense trying to stretch a long single into a double. Biggio was already at third base and it kind of snuffed out a potential rally.
And finally, while I'm complaining, I don't particularly like Sanchez's attitude.By his quotes he was pleased with his pitching, saying he was feeling and throwing like his old self.( Presumably when he was actually good). Yeah, well, you still gave up 4 runs and your TEAM lost. Remember them ? Maybe I'm just taking things out of context, but it seems he should be ore concerned that they lost and not be showing a me-first attitude about his own performance.

Sanchez's quotes are always like that. He comes off arrogant and blames others for his poor pitching, the rare times he actually acknowledges that he pitched poorly.

I'm not at all impressed with Vlad Guerrero Jr. I'd rather have any of the other top prospects that are well rounded baseball players. It doesn't help in my books that he spent the last 3 weeks practicing for the home run derby. I don't think real winners would practice for a derby like that...they would probably spend that time practicing on hitting less grounders, better baserunning, better discipline etc etc.

His old self was so long ago that he doesn't remember how good he really was.

Not sure why they didn't show the box over the strike zone.
It only appeared to illustrate some called strikes.
It's at Yankees stadium, so I'm willing to blame it on them.

Sanchez had 4 good innings.
Even the first 2 batters in the 5th were OK, 2 ground balls.
Then he wasn't able to finish the inning, loaded the bases and served a double to EE.

I searched for Bronx Zoo and didn't see any seal pictures.
Mostly giraffes, tigers, gorillas and a statue of a rhino.

“It doesn't help in my books that he spent the last 3 weeks practicing for the home run derby. I don't think real winners would practice for a derby like that...they would probably spend that time practicing on hitting less grounders, better baserunning, better discipline etc etc.”

This was supposed to be written in Sarcasm font, correct?

20yr old Blue Jays, History (Min 25pa)

1. T.Snider: 80pa, 6.3b%, 28.8k%, .400babip, 110wrc+
2. V.Guerrero: 257pa, 10.1b%, 18.7k%, .282babip, 97wrc+
3. L.Moseby: 430pa, 5.8b%, 19.8k%, .269babip, 70wrc+
4. P.Hodgson: 46pa, 6.5b%, 26.1k%, .286babip, 64wrc+
5. V.Wells: 92pa, 4.3b%, 19.6k%, .319babip, 61wrc+
6. D.Ainge: 331pa, 3.6b%, 17.5k%, .284babip, 45wrc+
7. M.Lee: 43pa, 4.7b%, 20.9k%, .258babip, 20wrc+
8. F.Manrique: 29pa, 0.0b%, 41.4k%, .250babip, -18wrc+


vladdy also owns the 2nd hardest hit ball of the year in the majors this year. Only stanton has hit one harder.

He is also the only player to appear 5 times on the 1st page (i.e. Top-50) hardest hit balls this year. And he's a 20yr old rookie.

Nope. Attitude problem and all he cares about is pimping BP homers!

(How do I do "sarcasm" font?

I still am not sure if Vlad will have the best career of our young hitters, given his position and lack of defensive chops. I think he’ll be good, but I don’t think he will be a superstar. I hope I’m wrong though. But despite uglyone being right that in comparison to other young Jays rookies of the past Vlad is fine he is still a long way behind the other great young players today like Acuna, Soto, Tatis, Torres and others. Hopefully he’ll join that group but he’s a long way off in all facets of the game. This is troubling since to be better than them he’s going to have to outhit them.

he's one hot month behind those guys.

He’ll have to make some more adjustments. Especially his ground ball rate. And those guys have better positions and defense than him along with their 150 wrc. So he’ll need to be historically good offensively to match these guys.

The older crew may have dim memories of Buck as a player

Not that dim! My memories of Mickey Mantle and Sandy Koufax - now that's dim. (Buck was kind of like Luke Maile, but better. Quite a bit better, actually.)

I'm not worried about Guerrero (although it's hard to imagine him being able to stay at third base.) He's a little immature? Well, he's 20 years old. You should have seen me when I was 20.

Magpie...

The.Mind.Boggles.Your.Thought.Is.Causing.A.Disturbance.In.The.Force.....

Apologies, Magpie. I'm placing myself in the older crew. Yourself and others are the sage crew.

I was a Whitt fan chiefly because my mom and his wife were friends and he was nice enough to show up at our home and play catch with me once. Hooked for life. In 85-86, every game I went to or watched where it was a Buck start instead of an Ernie start, I felt cheated. I don't think any talk about platoon advantages would have helped.

Well, watching Buck try to hit in 85-86... you were getting cheated!

Clayton Richard out with lat tightness. Will that mean an IL visit?

Drury has graded out very positively in the infield this season, especially at 3B where he passes the eye test as well (+1 DRS, +2.0 UZR). If the Jays truly believe he has breakout potential, and they would not have acquired him in the way that they did if they didn't believe in his bat, then just keep him at 3B full-time and move Vlad to 1B. It seems like the most logical way to take advantage of the team's defensive strengths, and Drury would simply be a placeholder until a better option became available (ideally, Groshans).

It took what felt like an eternity to move Gurriel off SS/2B, but he blossomed right after the move. Some times you just have to rip the band-aid off and put players in the positions they are most likely to provide value. Vlad's body type simply does not translate to 3B long-term. If he's still there next year, I'd be pretty disappointed, especially if they stick Tellez at first (who looks replacement level at best).

I am all for trying Gurriel at CF as well, if not this season, then in the winter leading up to next season. It would solve a lot of the team's issues if it works since Grichuk could remain in right, and the team could move someone like Biggio to left if he can't handle 2B long-term.

Why was Giles not used in this game?

I immediately thought that a Giles trade must be in place for him not to be used today. OF course, it's probably a (hopefully minor) injury.

Apparently, Giles got some kind of massage that tweaked a nerve in his elbow (??), and he's considered day to day.

In this case "massage" is likely code for "we made him pitch 3 days in a row two weeks after he came off the DL".

Whatever the case, not good news. Hopefully it's not serious. There is no August deadline anymore. He needs to be healthy and pitching well pretty soon.

Giles is now untradeable imo. No team will take him as they would be afraid of a recurrence even if he comes back and pitches well before the deadline.

There is still a little over 2 weeks until the deadline. If he comes back looking dominating, then I think they should still be able to trade him for value. However, if the offers have lessened because of the injury, then keep him. Trading him for someone else's 40 man roster clean up should not be an option under any circumstances. He has a year of control next year. Hold on to him in that case.

"It doesn't help in my books that he spent the last 3 weeks practicing for the home run derby. I don't think real winners would practice for a derby like that...they would probably spend that time practicing on hitting less grounders, better baserunning, better discipline etc etc.”

This was supposed to be written in Sarcasm font, correct?"



Correct, sometimes I just forget to choose the Sarcasm font.

Learning 1B might be harder for Vlad than improving at 3rd. It is not as easy as some, including media, seem to think. It took Tellez 3 years in the minors to learn how to play it competently and he had always been a 1B.

Moving Vlad off 3B wouldn't be for Drury, it would be for Vlad. I just meant Drury is already on the team and grades out positively at 3B, so if the team sees potential in him then simply putting him at 3B and Vlad at 1B would be a good option. In reality you could put anyone at 3B and Vlad at 1B and I think it would benefit the Jays.

I find it hard to believe anybody not related to Drury still thinks he can be an effective mlb player. I'd rather have Eric Sogard playing 3B than Drury. Even defensively, Drury does not grade well at 3B - BB-Ref has him in negative territory for Total Zone and Defensive Runs Saved for his mlb career at 3B. Drury's "hitting" as a Blue Jay - .212/.265/.368/.633 is very similar to Ryan Goins'.

Interesting performance in today's Jays/Yankees game by 1st base umpire Ryan Blakney. In a span of 5 batters, 1 in the bottom of the 8th and 2 in the top of the 9th, Blakney made 3 calls against the Jays, and all 3 were overturned, 1 by the home plate umpire, and 2 on video review. I know many people say that the Yankees get home town calls in Yankee Stadium, but that's kind of taking it to a new level. I've never seen an umpire have 3 calls in a row against 1 team overturned like that. Blakney is the home plate umpire tomorrow, emphasis on the word "home".

Fangraphs has Drury as a net positive at all the infield positions this season, and from the little I have seen from him at 3B, he passes the eye test to me. Not sure if something changed this year or if it's a small sample size as the rest of his career at 3B doesn't grade out well. He is still an awful OF.

Regardless, I don't think anything I said was suggesting Drury was a long-term solution or even a good player. This has more to do with moving Vlad off 3B and trying to find the best defensive lineup out of the current available options.

Drury has been replacement level at 3B.
You can play him at third base to justify acquiring him and you can tell yourself that he's going to get better. He's 26, so you entertain the idea that he's going to get better for a year or 2 before he starts getting worse.

EE was about 1 WAR worse at 1B than at 3B, maybe 2 WAR over a full year.
There's no reason to expect Guerrero to be a good 1B.
If you move him there it's because you got a guy that's better than him--hitting+fielding.
Good first baseman are cheap. Good 3B are very expensive, they don't even reach free agency these days.

Third base is a much more demanding defensive position than 1B. Unless Vlad slims down, it’s going to be difficult for him to even be average at 3B long-term despite having a good arm. The defensive numbers on him right now are not good. Can he get better there? Possibly. He’s only 20, and if he starts taking care of his body then that could certainly help with range and mobility in general. I’m just not expecting that to happen, and a move to 1B puts him in a less demanding position and his bat is good enough (potentially) to be elite anywhere. Just tell him to focus on hitting and learn how to pick throws. I highly doubt he’d be worse at first than third.

I mean if Vlad wants to play third then sure give him a couple of years there until Groshans (ideally) is ready, or another 3B option becomes available. It’s not like the team is going to contend in 2020. I just see a move for him to be inevitable, and would rather do it now than prolong it.

This was a pretty good game.

Turns out the Yankees and their followers were very  upset about the called strike to Voit.
That's cool.

Kingham did a good job. Phelps, too, with 3 Ks.
Overall the pen looked good. Might not last if they keep getting used like that.

Notable plays were Grichuk's diving catch, Tellez's tag and Drury's inability to go around Joe West.

The Jays last year had about the worst luck possible with their trade pieces. They had Donaldson, Osuna, Stroman, and Happ as valuable or somewhat valuable pieces.
Donaldson-Out the entire year and poor when he played
Osuna-Domestic incident became toxic and lost almost all his value
Stroman-Hurt and had his worst year with an ERA near 6.
Happ-Great start and fell apart the last month and was mediocre after April.

To have Giles get hurt in July seems par for the course with the luck on trade pieces we've had recently.

Luck, or a predictable consequence of management’s decision to use him three days in a row shortly after he came of the IL in a 90-100 loss season?

Well. He appeared fine the last time he threw and he hasn't even warmed up since.

There are several narratives that can be built around Giles.
He's been great even in the RC where the homers are flying.
He struggled in Houston. Was it the pressure of competing?
He says he's happy in Toronto, that he'd prefer to stay here.
That feature he did with his wife makes him a lot more likable that his closer image.
He already has a ring with Houston.
Could be that, like a certain basketball player, he's looking for some load management in order to excel.

I like him more with every game he plays with the Jays, so I'm not going to speculate.

Montoyo treats Giles like a veteran closer who only pitches in save situations.
It's Giles who requests to play in non-save situation when he feels like he needs to get into a game. That is a fact.
3 games in a row only happens following several days of rest and Giles has to be greenlighted before the game for Montoyo to use him.
That's as much load management as can be expected, short of a hard limit on consecutive games.
Giles does not have a history of injuries. He's been quite healthy since reaching the big leagues.
It took him a long time to learn to command his fastball and refine his slider.

Just sit him for 3 days then play him when he's ready. Don't have a press release with words "Nerve" "impingement" and "elbow" in the same sentence.

Same thing with Stroman, say he has a blister or you're scaling back his innings, don't advertise to other teams he has a pec issue.

Clayton Richard t the IL. Edwin Jackson is back but in the bullpen. The Jays need two starters this week.

Waguespack to start Tuesday, SRF likely for Thursday.

"Same thing with Stroman, say he has a blister or you're scaling back his innings, don't advertise to other teams he has a pec issue."

Preller tried this. Didn't work. Got suspended by MLB. If you trade players, you also exchange medical information. So are you going to alter medical reports? Plus, if you try to trade Stro, why wouldn't he tell his new team it was a pec, not a blister?

I hope Zeuch gets a call-up soon. Interested to see how he looks against MLB hitters.

I think we have to " to "try" to understand what Atkins is "trying" to do.

I don't think he is trying to lose 100 games. I see that as a side effect of what he is trying to do. The pitching injuries are not totally his fault. Mediocre, injury prone pitchers that are cheap. Maybe his fault to some degree. The young hitters struggling is not totally unexpected to me. The following decisions are made by Montoyo and his staff or Atkins. I am not sure who.
1) Gurriel as an IF has more value than as a LF. If successful. 452 ABs 27 Hr and a good BA.
2) Grichuck at CF because your OF is Grichuk, McKinney and Hernandez trying to become a power hitting LF. So take your pick. Maybe Brito was a better choice.
3) 233 ABs for Vlad at 3B is a small SS, maybe. Moving him to 1B may or may not be an issue. How is his 3B defense compared to EE. How does our LF defense compare to C Colabello (awesome power).

The hitters getting used to the Majors is an improving work in progress.

Jansen at C and Grichuck at RF are the only 2 positions that seem set to me. I expect Gurriel to move off LF. We will see. I think another 200 ABs at 2B for Biggio. What would be the bar for defensive failure?

Did Montoyo ever explain why he used Giles 3 days in a row? That was a puzzling decision at the time and him being hurt again shortly after is certainly making that decision look worse (and careless).

Within 2 weeks we could lose Stroman and Giles. Horrible pitching would become worse.

No rehabbing pitcher like Borucki will be rushed. Zeuch has to pitch about 70? innings in AAA before the FO thinks it is safe to promote him? Safe and patient is their method.

Murphy and Y Diaz were mentioned as coming up help a few weeks ago. Maybe go up and down to help with innings. But that is a bit risky.

"Preller tried this. Didn't work. Got suspended by MLB. If you trade players, you also exchange medical information. So are you going to alter medical reports? Plus, if you try to trade Stro, why wouldn't he tell his new team it was a pec, not a blister?"

Yeah you're right. Im just bummed our returns on those players may take a hit.

If the returns may take a hit then they shouldn’t be traded. What is the purpose of moving them for 50 cents on the dollar. I’m confused by the rush to get them out the door.

bpoz, why do you think Gurriel will be moved off LF? He looks set there to me.

There is a very large hole between Guerrero and Galvis.

Can someone please explain why Derek Law is still in the Majors? He seems quite replaceable.

He's best friends with Joe Biagini.

They'll both be replaced.

Rowdy optioned to Buffalo.

The offensive improvement seemed larger against KC and Baltimore for some reason:)

Tellez down to triple A. Montoyo wants him to approve his approach at the plate. Which is fair enough, except that Hernandez and Drury should have been jettisoned first if that was a deal breaker.

Hernandez was sent down once, not that it seems to have helped him any. Drury has improved his approach, it's just his results that stink.

Speculation is that McKinney, who has been hot of late, is being recalled. Hernandez might be out of luck if Alford was not injured. However, with Pompey rehabbing, Teoscar should be looking over his shoulder. With Dalton having no remaining options, he will likely get a major league opportunity before any decision is made on him.

Not sure you can consider Hernandez’s time in Buffalo as sufficient for him to work on his approach, but if it was, wouldn’t an answer unsuccessful demotion he even more reason for the axe ahead of others?

Can someone please explain why Derek Law is still in the Majors?

What song did the Sirens sing? What name did Achilles assume he hid himself among women? Puzzling questions indeed, but not beyond all conjecture.

But how did Djokovic actually win that match today? Why is Derek Law in the major leagues?

Sorry, I can't help you.

I go to all that trouble to quote Edgar Poe quoting Thomas Browne and then I screw it up. What name did Achilles assume when he hid himself among the women.

"What is the purpose of moving them for 50 cents on the dollar"

Because ownership is cheap and would rather be mediocre with a $125m payroll than very good with a $150m one?

Greenfrog, I'm as cynical as anyone regarding the purse strings at Rogers, but I really do think that the organization from top to bottom wants to pursue these trades for location-in-the-cycle-of-contention reasons.

That said, I am also not eager to see Stroman moved, because I have zero faith in this front office getting an acceptable return. Especially in an extreme buyers' market and in an environment of leaguewide prospect hoarding.

It will hurt the soul to see another Drury-McKinney type return.

The Jays last year had about the worst luck possible with their trade pieces. They had Donaldson, Osuna, Stroman, and Happ as valuable or somewhat valuable pieces.

You can attribute some of this to luck (particularly Osuna's case), but I'm also a firm believer in making your own luck. I used to think the Leafs and Raptors were perpetually unlucky until I was actually shown the difference strong management can make.

The FO cannot be absolved completely from selling low on those assets. One of the hardest things to do is sell high or when it's not necessarily obvious that you should (see: Raptors and Derozan).

There's a nice look back at how this FO has done converting major league talent on Sportsnet today. Leaves a ton to be desired:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/looking-back-return-recent-blue-jays-trades/

Opposing GMs know that the Jays front office has previously relented and moved good players for a low return. So they'll wait and see whether they can get Stroman and Giles for a similarly low return this month.

Atkins and Shapiro need to establish that they are strong negotiators and that they will hold on to a good asset rather than trade it for below-market value. It would have been better to set that precedent last year, of course.

I also hope they don't trade Stroman and Giles simply because they've already made up their minds to do so. If health concerns are affecting offers, it may be prudent to hang on to both of them at least until the off-season.

However, I'm sure the front office has some regret over the way Donaldson was handled, and so they may be tempted to take whatever they can get now rather than hope for more later.

Also, while it seems to be a foregone conclusion, I still think both Stroman and Giles should be extended. Whatever pieces they get back will be cheaper, but almost certainly not as good.

The Jays have leverage in this case as they can hold on to the players (Stroman and Giles) for another year. Of course that lessens their trade value heading into the winter and next trade deadline, but it's better than accepting a less than fair offer now. It's one thing trading Donaldson with weeks of control left for whatever you can get, but that should not be the approach here.

I don't expect another Happ return since he was a two month rental and Stroman is a better/younger SP with an extra year of control (plus a QO). I think ultimately the return will be disappointing primarily because teams are hoarding prospects more than ever, but there is a difference between a top 100 prospect + lottery tickets and McKinney/Drury.

If Atkins doesn't have a good trade deadline here then he definitely deserves some criticism for not being able to turn whatever was left of the inherited veterans into anything meaningful for the Vlad years and beyond. Some bad luck in the case of Osuna, but when bad luck is a constant trend, then bad luck becomes a cope out.

One thing that bothered me about the Happ and Pearce trades is that the Jays gave a friendly helping hand to teams that should be viewed as their fierce rivals. The Jays gave the Yankees a strong starter for last year's postseason run and gave the Red Sox the World Series MVP in exchange for Santiago Espinal.

I would prefer to see no more trades to those teams unless the Jays are willing to overpay for what they're getting in return.

And when was the last time the Jays came out ahead in a trade with the Yankees?

Make that, unless the *Yankees or Red Sox* are willing to overpay

The Rays recently traded a top-100 prospect (#93 Nick Solak) to the Rangers for a big-armed 40 FV reliever (Peter Fairbanks). The Jays need to do a lot better than that for Marcus Stroman.

Well done, Magpie. Not the errant quotation; but the use of it at all. Da Box must surely be the only baseball blog extant in which one can find reference to Sir Thomas Browne! (Have you ever dipped into his Pseudodoxia Epidemica -- a fascinating book.)

Who cleft the devil’s foot? (From a John Donne poem, to go along with Sir Thomas.)

I mean if were not getting star caliber prospect back I just don't see any point in moving stroman.

Stroman could well be a good #2 SP for the next half-dozen years. And he likes Toronto. It would be silly to trade him for a couple of B/B+ prospects “because everybody is hoarding prospects now.” If that’s the case, extend him and find other ways to acquire prospects.

The Solak/Fairbanks trade is something else.
A swap of prospects.
Maybe it illustrates that pitching prospects are harder to acquire than position players.

The Jays can and probably should pick up all of Stroman's salary to get a better return.
The Cashner deal looks like a salary dump to me.
Also, Baltimore is looking for the youngest possible prospects since their rebuild will last a long time.
The Jays need players with 2021 ETA at the latest.

I think Stroman goes to free agency at this point.
I see him betting on himself.

I squint and I'm not sure I see a Yankees fit.
Their infield defense isn't really that great.
They make a lot of errors.
I think they prefer a flyball pitcher who strikes a batter an inning.

Why not? They might trade Smoak if anybody offers anything.
Mckinney can cover and probably deserve some playing time.
I'd like to see Alford before Pompey comes off the IL.

Nothing wrong with Tellez catching Bichette's throws for a few weeks.

I would prefer a Stroman extension as well but that seems like a lost cause at this point as it seems even Stroman himself has accepted that he's going to be moved.

It is simply a bad time to trade veterans in general. What needs to be determined is whether Stroman's 2021-24 seasons (assuming a five year extension) would be greater value than anything they get in return. Unless we know what the offers are, it is hard to answer that definitively.

It wouldn't surprise me if Stroman is asking for $100M+. He has an ego, which I think is actually a good thing, but he seems more likely to bet on himself than take a discount.

Bautista bet on himself.

PeterG, Gurriel moving off LF would be because staying there seems to break some kind of baseball rule.

The rule "You can always move a player down to a less demanding defensive position". So EE from 3B to 1B. But he had to fail badly defensively first and the move probably made him hit a lot better because now he cannot hurt the team daily like he was doing.

So Gurriel's move was extreme. SS to 2B to LF. I don't know which is harder defensively 1B or LF. I believe he has the arm and speed for CF. RF needs a good arm and Grichuk has that and is there. Hernandez has the speed for Cf. So maybe Gurriel stays in LF while being capable of playing CF and RF.

the only baseball blog extant in which one can find reference to Sir Thomas Browne!

See, I didn't go to university for six years for nothing.

"The Jays can and probably should pick up all of Stroman's salary to get a better return."

Stroman will only be owed about $2.5 million by the end of July. Even the Rays can afford that. The Jays could try, but don't see it being a selling point.

I'm with everybody else on this - the purpose of a Stroman trade is to add to the core of the team, not just making a deal for dealing's sake. If that can't be done, if they can't add a star/top-50/55fv or greater prospect, there's no point. At that point, they should switch gears and see if they can get a reasonable (for both sides) deal done.

Agree with the general consensus. Stroman needs to bring back a prospect or young player that can be part of a future core. Giles, a bit different. I'd constantly be trading relievers. (it's the best rebuilding cycle. Sign relievers, let some emerge, and trade them as they do.) I just don't trust any relievers long term. Still, if the offers for Giles are poor,or he's hurt, you could still get something decent as a rental player.

There is no reason for him to take a discount and he shouldn't.
If he's heading to free agency, he should probably accept the QO.
Even if he doesn't, that makes it easier for the Jays to match what other teams would offer him.
So, I think it would be more of an EE situation where you would have to wait a long time on the player to sign, hoping that he doesn't sign somewhere else at a discount.

Another reason for Stroman to accept a QO is that the CBA is up after that, so he might not want to sign a long contract before the terms change which could lead to a better deal down the road.

I think the front office is aware that they need good value in return. Rumours are swirling that Wheeler, Bumgarner and Stroman (extra year) have premium extremely high asking prices. That bodes well for us.

The problem with just holding on to Stroman if you don't get a great return now is that you will get even less in the off season or following trade deadline. The real issue, however, is that Stroman is getting old for baseball and will likely lose a ton of value over the next 5 years. Resigning him because we can't get a great return now is not a good plan B or strategy imho.

Athletics and Red Sox traded for fluff pitchers to make marginal improvements just to help them make the playoffs with a couple of extra wins...there's still a lot of teams that need these starters and when the Mets reveal their asking prices for 2.5 years of Syndergaard Stroman will look like a great alternative.

The answer is somewhere in between, don't resign Stroman (because you can trade him for better value) and don't sell low on him. It's on management to sweeten the return by making the trade a better investment for the opposing team...add more players to the mix.

Ages 29-33 is hardly old.

Agree with most of this, but maybe not the Stroman getting old part. He just turned 28 May 1st. And yes 28 is when pitchers start to decline, on average. Their velocity has been dropping since their mid-20's and injuries start piling up.

Not sure how Stroman fits into the average though. I've always thought that his height would prevent him aging well. but I read something interesting the other day. Taller pitchers have longer arms, enabling them to generate more torque and therefore velocity. But that extra torque also puts extra strain on their elbows. So maybe having shorter arms is an advantage from a health standpoint. Marcus really hasn't had elbow issues and is a terrific athlete. He also isn't as dependent on velocity.
Upshot: "Good luck to analytic departments on this one.".

I think it partly comes down to money. Rogers is probably planning to have the Jays trundle along with a mid-market payroll for the indefinite future — say, in the $100-130m range. Grichuk’s front-loaded contract fits into that scheme. The youth movement and many “depth” prospects and free agents acquired by the FO fit into that scheme. A market-value extension for Stroman does not.

Also, the front office may find Stroman to be somewhat of an irritant that they would prefer to go away (I completely disagree with this view).

"Still, if the offers for Giles are poor,or he's hurt, you could still get something decent as a rental player."


Agreed. The return for Giles as a rental next year would obviously be less, but would be preferable to trading him now if offers have worsened due to his recent injury. If any position can recoup some trade value, it is relievers. Contenders always value elite RP's at the deadline given the way the game has changed, especially in the playoffs where bullpens are being used a lot more. I'd prefer to sell high on RP's sooner rather than later as well, even elite RP's like Giles can get hurt or have their performance fall off a cliff out of no where, but the FO should not be in desperation mode here. Even if they want to save money next year and don't want to pay him a high arb figure, they can let him finish off 2019 (if healthy) and trade him in the winter if necessary. Make sure you get the deal right, otherwise hold.

I think the irritant narrative comes from the media, not the ownership or the front office.
Investing in pitchers is a gamble, but it's often necessary.
Once they become competitive, they'll have lots in the farm to make mid-year acquisitions.
They might seek a vet presence like Buehrle, but they don't necessary run away from a guy like Stro.

Let me stress that I say Stroman is old "for baseball." Pitchers that maintain or get better past their age 30 season (when Marcus is up for a new contract) are rare. Johnny Cueto is probably a good comp for Stroman,

The front office would be wise to trade any tradeable asset like Stroman or Giles and get prospects back that can contribute. This makes a lot of sense so long as they turn around and invest some of those savings in free agent signings like Madbum, Cole, Miley etc whoever.

Nobody is advocating to trade Marcus because of who he is, we're all trying to get the team better in our proposals by using the temporary assets that we have now which won't be such a year from now.

As usual, a very thoughtful discussion. The only thing that I would take issue with is the idea that it makes sense to trade Stroman because the front office would then use the money not spent on Stroman to go out and sign above average free agent starting pitching. The evidence of the Jays signing above average free agent starters to play in Toronto is extremely limited. In the last 25 years, the list probably begins and ends with Burnett and Happ (and even he could only point to a half year in Pittsburg to meet that criteria). I don't see that happening.

Montefusco could also be an Osuna comparable.

There was a steroid guy also who signed a big contract to pitch for Toronto.

Chris Archer is a little different, I think.
The Pirates got him in the hope of turning him into a true sinker/slider guy.
That's a lot like what happened with Sonny Gray in the Bronx.
I don't think anybody will try to mess  with Stroman.

"There was a steroid guy also who signed a big contract to pitch for Toronto."

thanks Interbrew!

There is an article today for subscribers on The Athletic about Stroman and potential trade targets. Consensus seems to be that the Jays should be able to extract a high price for him.

The bird-in-the-hand scenario for Stroman is probably the pick you would get if he reject a qualifying offer after next year. So that’s a pick between rounds 2-3, I believe? In the last few years, the Jays have used picks in that range on Kloffenstein, Zach Jackson, Griffin Conine, Bo Bichette, Hagen Danner, etc. Something like that is what they’re likely to end up with if they just keep Stroman and let him walk after 2020. That sets a pretty high floor for an asking price, IMO—dealing Stroman in a pennant race, over a year before he reaches free agency.

I think some teams might try to mess with Stroman quite a bit - this year his Slider/Curveball (pitch systems disagree which one it is) has been his most effective pitch by a mile, even though he is throwing it more than he ever has (35% or so this year, up from 25% the prior two years). There is a chance Stroman could push his usage of his best pitch even higher and improve his overall results, but the Jays don't seem to be a team that is really pushing the limits on that sort of thing.

I think Archer and Gray will just add to the "beware of pitchers who played in the Trop and the Coliseum" list, much like the hitters who played in coors list.

Archer is also a more classic case of a 3-pitch pitcher highly dependant on high-90s velocity deteriorating with age. And even with his home stadium edge, Archer hadn't been able to get his ERA under 4 since....2015. That was 3yrs in a row of 4+ era that the pirates traded for, in a pitching haven.....which sure looks to me like hitters figuring his limited arsenal out, despite his still solid fips.


Gray was also pretty injury-wracked the 2 years prior to being traded. And to be fair, he actually is having a good year this year and his numbers since leaving Oakland (97era-, 90fip-, 91xfip-, 2.7war32) aren't that much worse than they were in Oakland (92era-, 90fip-, 89xfip-, 3.5war32).



Previous Calendar Year before trade:

Stroman 27gs, 84era-, 80fip-, 90xfip-, 3.3war32
Archer 29gs, 107era-, 92fip-, 81xfip-, 2.1war32
Gray 19gs, 92era-, 77fip-, 77xfip-, 2.9war32


Previous 2 calendar years:

Stroman 52gs, 91era-, 90fip-, 85xfip-, 2.8war32
Archer 62gs, 95era-, 82fip, 78xfip-, 3.4war32
Gray 48gs, 110era-, 101fip-, 91xfip-, 1.5war32

Gray blamed his trouble with the Yankees to being asked to throw more breaking balls.
Archer was asked to throw more 2-seamers.

Consensus seems to be that the Jays should be able to extract a high price for him

The consensus last year was that the Jays should, and probably would, be able to pry away at least one of Justus Sheffield or Clint Frazier from New York for Happ, if I recall correctly. And the club ended up with McKinney and Drury.

Don't forget that Happ struggled around the trade deadline to lower his value, didn't he? I can't recall exactly.

Happ was awful for the last month and was pretty mediocre after April. I don't think Anyone realistically expected Sheffiekd or Frazier for Happ.

Here's Szymborski on the trade: "All-in-all, the Yankees paid a fair amount in value for a J.A. Happ rental, I just feel the Blue Jays would have been better served to get that value in a different configuration."

That is probably the analysis I agree most with. Happ wasn't worth Sheffield or Frazier at the time, but the Jays should have either targeted some lower level pitching prospects. Or flipped at least Drury to another team for non 40-man pitching.

Stroman's value just went up...Wheller going to IL with shoulder fatigue.

Paging Dr. Andrews...

As expected, Billy McKinney is up for Tellez.

Giles threw off flat ground today. Will try to do bullpen tomorrow. Really annoying how these one day things turn into two weeks, if he’s back and healthy and looks dominant again by weekend, Jays can probably get full price for him, if it goes on longer, there is going to be a big issue.