So, now that Manoah is off to the races it got me thinking of kids called up who made a strong first impression here.
Since it is first call up Eichhorns amazing rookie year doesn't count (he was up for a period as a starter before that but didn't lose rookie legibility). Looking at starters with ERA+ of 100 or better or close enough to be interesting. Or guys who were amazing later (like Carpenter) while skipping 'meh' guys like Stottlemyre who had bad rookie seasons and decent but not 'wow' careers.
Since it is first call up Eichhorns amazing rookie year doesn't count (he was up for a period as a starter before that but didn't lose rookie legibility). Looking at starters with ERA+ of 100 or better or close enough to be interesting. Or guys who were amazing later (like Carpenter) while skipping 'meh' guys like Stottlemyre who had bad rookie seasons and decent but not 'wow' careers.
- Dave Stieb: 1979 100 ERA+ 8-8 record, 18 starts 129 1/3 IP
- Luis Leal: 1980 3-4 96 ERA+ in 10 starts/3 relief 59 2/3 IP
- Jim Gott: 1982 5-10 102 ERA+ 136 IP over 23 starts, 7 relief
--------------end of first great era------------------- - Goose Gozzo: 1989 4-1 77 ERA+ over 3 starts, 6 relief - doesn't qualify but it was so amazing when he was called up and did well until put into the pen, 4-0 his first 4 appearances. 1.23 ERA, then moved to the pen and forgotten, 13.03 ERA over his last 5 appearances over a month+. A minor league rule 5 draft pick. First game was 8 IP 0 R to get the Jays over 500 in a pennant race that they'd win in the end.
- Juan Guzman: 1991 10-3 142 ERA+ over 23 starts for a division winner in 1991, also 5 2/3 IP in playoffs 2 R/ER allowed. Fans went nuts because Cito didn't put him in game 1/5 - didn't remember how good he was in playoffs 2.44 ERA lifetime 5-1 record.
----------------dark times begin------------------ - Chris Carpenter: 1997 3-7 89 ERA+ over 13 starts 1 relief, 81 1/3 IP - future Cy Young winner
- Roy Halladay: 1998 1-0 245 ERA+ 2 starts 14 IP near no-hitter in 2nd start (8 2/3 before giving up a home run caught by Dave Stieb in the bullpen) - whatever happened to that kid I wonder...
- Mark Hendrickson: 2002 3-0 189 ERA+ over 4 starts, 12 relief 36 2/3 IP, was a bit exciting there but just an 89 lifetime - funny thing, drafted 6 times
- David Bush: 2004 5-4 131 ERA+ over 16 starts 97 2/3 IP, oh the hopes we had for him. Traded for Overbay.
- Gustavo Chacin: 2004 1-1 192 ERA+ over 2 starts 14 IP - yeah stretching it here, but 13-9 120 ERA+ in 34 starts 203 IP the next year so he started gangbusters and had a cologne named after him but his career fell apart early.
-----------------the brief hope era----------------- - Scott Richmond: 2008 1-3 107 ERA+ over 5 starts, 27 IP such hope for the Canadian but only would get starts the next season then 2 relief years and done.
- Ricky Romero: 2009 13-9 103 ERA+ over 178 IP and 29 starts, 3 great years, 1 bad one, then injury, injury, injury. Up at 24, done at 28, in minors until 32. So much promise, but it fell apart so fast. Replaced in the rotation by JA Happ and the rest is history.
- Marc Rzepczynski: 2009 2-4 121 ERA+ over 11 starts 61 1/3 IP - really thought he'd make it. Just a dozen more starts but nearly 500 more games in relief, last pitched in 2018 in the majors, 2019 in minors.
- Henderson Alvarez III: 2011 1-3 121 ERA+ over 10 starts 63 2/3 IP part of the big Miami trade in the 2012/13 off-season.
------------------current times--------------------- - Ryan Borucki: 2018 4-6 110 ERA+ 17 starts 97 2/3 IP now a solid reliever.
- Jacob Waguespack: 2019 5-5 104 ERA+ 13 starts 3 relief 78 IP now stuck in the minors
Of note: a few really good guys had brief call-ups (Hentgen just 7 IP) or were in the pen first (Key, Woody Williams) thus didn't qualify for this list. I pushed it a bit far in some cases (Halladay for example).
I was surprised how well these divided out - I was looking for any decent kids each year but during big stretches no one jumped out as decent. 1983-1988 isn't a shock to have no kids emerge as the team was a contender year in year out and couldn't risk handing a rotation slot to a rookie and had a lot of good arms as was - often kids were tried out in the pen first then (like Key). 1994-2001 should've been an era of opportunity but Ash was a nightmare GM who didn't trust kids and when he did put them in they sucked royally. I listed Carpenter in that dark time as he did become something great later but was rushed (was still walking 4 per 9 IP, ERA of 4.50 in AAA after a 3.94 in AA the year before - you could tell Ash was panicking). The Hendrickson/Bush/Chacin era had potential but none were really as good as they looked.
Lets hope this batch (Alek Manoah, Nate Pearson and whoever else comes up like Simeon Woods Richardson) can match the success of the early 80's & early 90's crews and not be like the post 2000 one.
