Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Jays at Cleveland, May 28-30

I'm so proud. I remembered that the place where the Cleveland Baseball Team plays its home games is currently called Progressive Field. Didn't even have to look it up (except afterwards, to be sure I had it right. Oh well.)

The Cleveland Baseball Team sports an impressive 27-21 record, and it's something of a mystery how this has happened. They've scored 191 runs and allowed 187. They've split their one-run games. Their offense is not very offensive - Jose Ramirez is wonderful and DH Franmil Reyes has matched him, but Reyes strained his oblique on Saturday and is expected to be out for at least a month. Two starting pitchers have been outstanding - Shane Bieber, which figured, and Aaron Civale, which didn't. The Jays will miss Bieber, but Civale gets the Sunday afternoon start. The front half of their bullpen - Clase, Karinchak, Quantrill, and Shaw - have been superb. They've also been worked pretty hard.

Matchups? Thought you'd never ask...

Fri 28 May - Ryu (4-2, 2.53) vs Morgan (---, -.--) (This would be Eli Morgan, making his MLB debut. Weather permitting.)

Sat 29 May - Stripling (0-3, 5.63) vs Hentges (1-1, 6.20)

Sun 30 May - Matz (6-2, 4.28) vs Civale (7-1, 3.04)

A rainout tonight, presumably followed by a doubleheader later this weekend, is one of those things that would work out nicely for both teams. It seems to me that both teams have what amount to Stars and Scrubs types of bullpens - something like four established major league pitchers, fleshed out by a Waiver Wire Brigade. In which case, a couple of seven inning games means you need much less from the more dubious elements of the pen.

Posted by Magpie on Friday, May 28 2021 @ 03:45 PM EDT.

Jays at Cleveland, May 28-30 | 155 comments | Create New Account

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hypobole - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#398961) #

The bullpen guy is Clase, though he does make hitters Chase.

Cleveland has played 14 games vs teams over .500, 34 games vs sub .500. They have gone 7-7 vs the good teams though.

Jays have played 28 games vs teams over .500. 21 vs sub .500.

uglyone - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#398962) #

2 Year Stats

1. CF Springer (31): 240pa, .250babip, .354obp, 146wrc+, 5.7war/650
2. 1B Guerrero (22): 455pa, .303babip, .382obp, 152wrc+, 4.9war/650
3. DH Teoscar (28): 349pa, .358babip, .351obp, 143wrc+, 5.0war/650
4. SS Bichette (23): 345pa, .335babip, .322obp, 122wrc+, 4.5war/650
5. 2B Semien (30): 456pa, .298babip, .329obp, 118wrc+, 5.1war/650
6. RF Grichuk (29): 428pa, .301babip, .311obp, 112wrc+, 2.1war/650
7. 3B Biggio (26): 416pa, .306babip, .354obp, 108wrc+, 1.7war/650
8. LF Gurriel (27): 400pa, .323babip, .310obp, 106wrc+, 1.6war/650
9. C Jansen (26): 258pa, .179babip, .271obp, 62wrc+, -0.3war/650

B. PH Tellez (26): 234pa, .261babip, .308obp, 97wrc+, -0.3war/650
B. OF Davis (29): 99pa, .259babip, .316obp, 80wrc+, 0.7war/650
B. IF Espinal (26): 128pa, .309babip, .276obp, 61wrc+, 1.0war/650
B. C Kirk (22): 71pa, .280babip, .352obp, 138wrc+, 2.8war/650

X. OF Palacios (25): 35pa, .318babip, .353obp, 80wrc+, 1.9war/650
X. IF Panik (30): 200pa, .271babip, .310obp, 71wrc+, -0.7war/650
X. C McGuire (26): 74pa, .163babip, .171obp, -11wrc+, -5.3war/650

scottt - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#398963) #

A rainout would work fine for the Jays, but maybe not for Cleveland.
That would force them to get yet another starter for June 2 or start Morgan on short rest.

scottt - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#398964) #

I find this an imperfect measure this early in the year.
The Rangers and Angels might not have been under .500 when the Jays faced them.
Jays were without Ray early on and gave one start to Roark.

Magpie - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#398965) #

The bullpen guy is Clase

Fixed!

I remain grateful to my legion of sharp-eyed proof-readers and editors. As if I've ever been edited.

Petey Baseball - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#398967) #

I'm watching the Cleveland broadcast. When the AL East is this good it's entertaining to hear the announcers surprise at the level the Jays play at, despite their record. It's almost like they're playing in a different league.

scottt - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#398968) #

Out of Dunedin and into a pitcher's park.
What a difference it makes.

uglyone - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#398969) #

Go bottomorder go

John Northey - Friday, May 28 2021 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#398971) #

Nice cold win. Ryu after a horrid first really recovered nicely. I was scared when it was 2-0 with the bases loaded. But he got out of it, and the Jays quickly tied it, then took the lead and kept growing. So 4 of Cleveland's relievers are done for the weekend (maybe Nelson can come back Sunday - the rest probably need 2 days off to be available for Monday's double header). Only Thornton used by the Jays, 20 pitches so he should be available Sunday if needed. Everyone else should be available tomorrow. Cole only threw 16 pitches yesterday, Romano 8. In fact the pen is probably over rested if anything now. Nice change. Only other reliever used since the Tampa nightmare was Chatwood (15 pitches on Tuesday). I'd probably try to give Romano Saturday off if possible, but that would be it outside Thornton. With 14 guys on the staff (Ryu/Matz/Ray/Stripling/Manoah the starters) that means Castro, Chatwood, Cole, Dolis, Mayza, Payamps, Tice are all fully available with Romano (pitched a lot lately) & Thornton (today) being the only ones they might hesitate to use tomorrow.

Brings up the question who do you dump when Bergen, Borucki, Hatch, Kay come back? Let along the 60 day crew (who also need someone off the 40 man): Merryweather, Milone, Murphy, and gone for all year Phelps & Yates (both off roster at seasons end as both are free agents)

Seeing Phelps & Yates brings up the 'free agent headaches' this upcoming off-season, not a priority by any stretch right now, but I got thinking about it so I had to check...
Post 2021: Semien, Ray, Yates, Matz, Chatwood, Panik, Phelps, Milone
Post 2022: Stripling
Post 2023: Ryu, Grichuk, Hernandez
Post 2024: Gurriel, Dolis, Jansen, Tellez, Borucki, Thornton
Post 2025: Vlad, Biggio, Bo, Mayza, Hatch, Romano, McGuire, Davis

Boy 2025/26 offseason could be a scary one. But for now we have a lot of time to enjoy this young core. Semien, Ray, and Matz are the big question marks this offseason. The relievers would be nice to keep but not a necessity (can be judged as the year rolls along). Post 2023/4/5 are all tough off seasons unless some long term deals are signed before then.

scottt - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#398973) #

Cleveland managed to save all their high leverage relievers, which makes a lot of sense given the score.

Cole vs Mize in Detroit.
Cole struck out 5, Mize 7.
How did they manage to play 10 innings there?
Sanchez picked up Baddoo.
Stinky had 4 hits including a solo homer.
Chapman pitched the 9th against hitter 5,6,7.
Wilson gave up the winning homerun to the lead off hitter, Grossman.

Rare Friday night off in Tampa, a place where the weather was actually nice.

Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#398975) #

Terry Francona has gone to Rhode Island to give away his daughter. In his place, old friend DeMarlo Hale will serve as manager for today and tomorrow. As manager of the Blue Jays, DeMarlo won 3 of 4 games when John Gibbons was twice suspended.

grjas - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#398976) #

It will be interesting to see which Stripling shows up today. If his delivery changes hold and he continues to pitch like last time, it would be a big positive for the pitching staff.

bpoz - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#398977) #

Good question about roster moves by the Jays over the next 5 years.

Semien is probably missed. May get a QO. Springer may play the full year of 2022.

Ray and Matz may be missed depending how they do this year. Good pitching and good health. QO is possible. Farm may produce replacements. FA for replacements.

Grichuk, Gurriel and Hernandez. All are consistent. Good and steady Grichuk and Hernandez. Streaky Gurriel. He is on one of his streaks. They will all be missed. A Martin will have proven he can hit in the ML or not.

Extending the core that are FA eligible is a big task.

Financial flexibility and a strong farm is what this FO wants to use.

scottt - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#398980) #

Hopefully they can extend Teoscar. He sure looks like he's happy here.
Springer will eventually move to a corner, so they'll need a center fielder to displace one of the current guys.

Still too early to contemplate the options in the infield, but it looks like Moreno could take over before long.
If they keep Kirk, that's a strong lineup every day.

QO, if they still exist, are probably easy decision.
Semien is already being paid at QO rate.
If I remember correctly, they gave a QO to Estrada and then signed him for 2 years instead--he asked for 3 years.

scottt - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#398984) #

Cleveland is the third worse offense in baseball, so they can tell us if Stripling still sucks but not if he's become any good.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#398986) #

Was looking at Cleveland's offence. They are not bad K%, BB%, ISO. Their main issue seems to be hitting too many balls right at people. .253 BABIP 2nd worst in MLB. Jays are #6 at .298.

Chuck - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#398988) #

If you accept the premise that HR/FB rate is "standard", any any deviation from it represents good or bad luck, then the Jays' xFIPs are as follows, painting a very good picture:

Ryu 3.04
Matz 3.38
Ray 3.40
Stripling 4.04

If you don't accept the aforementioned premise, and believe that only H/9 is "standard", with deviations representing randomness, then the Jays' FIPs are as follows, painting a less attractive picture, especially for one rotation member receiving a whole lotta love:

Ryu 2.88
Matz 3.57
Ray 5.12
Stripling 4.74

And, if you think that ERA tells the whole and complete story, and that normalization adjustments are only for the pocket protector crowd, the Jays' ERAs are as follows, a picture that sets one man a good piece apart from the rest, though admittedly coming off a tremendous recent performance:

Ryu 2.62
Matz 4.28
Ray 3.81
Stripling 5.63

Where does the truth lie? I guess that's why they make them play a 6-month season.

Chuck - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#398989) #

I should have made clear that for the second block, H/9 is normalized based on BB/9 and K/9, rather than by applying a league wide average H/9 as is the case when normalizing HR/FB.

GabrielSyme - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#398991) #

Now would be a great time to try to extend Teoscar: he's showing a substantial improvement in contact rate and, I think, better swing decisions. His power numbers aren't quite where they've been, so his overall line is only great, rather than Vlad-level, but he's really looking like an elite-level hitter. He also looks improved defensively.

Magpie - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#398992) #

This afternoon's game is postponed, they'll play a couple of seven inning games tomorrow.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#398993) #

Where does the truth lie.

The truth is lying where it's not telling the truth.

Ray is divisive though.
1.2 bWAR, 2 highest of all Jays pitchers behind only Ryu.
-0.1 fWAR, 14th highest, behind guys like Stripling and Milone.

scottt - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#398994) #

That is a lot of rest for the Jays pitching.

scottt - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#398995) #

Post 2021: Semien, Ray, Yates, Matz, Chatwood, Panik, Phelps, Milone
You forgot Roark and Shun Yamaguchi. Yates makes 5.5M, Roark 12M, Yamaguchi 3.175M.
Lost of money free to re-invest and the core is only hitting the first year of arbitration.
You also missed Dolis.

Post 2025: Vlad, Biggio, Bo, Mayza, Hatch, Romano, McGuire, Davis
McGuire and Davis will be gone long before that.

Mike Green - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#398996) #

Statcast xERA for the tiebreaker- it incorporates quality of contact data:

Ryu 3.29

Matz 3.66

Ray 4.56

Stripling 5.28

Others: Manoah 1.47, Merryweather 1.65, Romano 2.25, Chatwood 2.46, Castro 2.56, Borucki 2.70, Payamps 3.08, Dolis 3.53, Cole 3.74, Kay 4.21, Thornton 4.56, Roark 8.57, Zeuch 11.59.

There's a good staff in there- particularly of Stripling's adjustments take hold.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#398997) #

Jays also gifted Tulo his $4 million contract buyout this season.

uglyone - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#398998) #

"There's a good staff in there- particularly of Stripling's adjustments take hold."

Ryu 5.8ip/gm
Ray 5.8
Matz 5.4
Ross 4.6

Nigel - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#398999) #

Ray is divisive because he does something important at an elite level (k’s) but struggles in a few others (walks, hard contact/HRs and ending ABs economically). I think that all blends out as a useful, but limited, back of the rotation starter but I can understand others having more optimistic or pessimistic views depending on which of his attributes you value and/or look at.

jerjapan - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#399000) #

If Ray can keep the BB% down, he's a mid rotation guy easy. This is a dude who's a consistently above-average starter for his career, with one elite season, 2017, under his belt. I don't think he should be viewed based on that crazy season last year - that's the outlier, not this season.

To me, if Semien and one of Ray or Matz perform well enough to get a QO, that's a homerun for the FO. And for Pete Walker - he's gotta be a top-five pitching coach by now, right?

Gausman took the QO last year for San Fran, and look at him this year.

I admit, I was anit-Shapiro/Atkins in the early days, mostly because of the corporate-speak, and the hideous miss on JD, but this is an approach that will yield one Shun Yamaguchi for every Robby Ray. I'll take it. And now that we are playing with the big boys in FA, Ryu is a HR, and springer was one of the prizes of the offseason.

that said, I do hope we start seeing some of the value of that deal soon. Veteran FA signings don't age well, so I do worry that Springer hasn't played much at all in the first year of the contract.

you win some, you lose some. but right now, this org is winning more than they lose.

@Ugly, do those IP for the starters matter in this day and age? Nobody is pitching deep anymore.

Magpie - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#399001) #

do those IP for the starters matter in this day and age? Nobody is pitching deep anymore.

I wonder if maybe, just maybe, this tide - well, it hasn't turned but it's reached some kind of limit. In the last two weeks, Ryu, Matz, Ray, and Stripling all established season highs in pitches thrown in a game - all but Ryu set a new high for innings pitched in a agme this season (Ryu merely matched what he'd done before.)

I have to think Montoyo is reacting to the trauma of watching what the Waiver Wire Brigade did when they were thrust into actual game situations. There's really only one way to prevent that happeneing, and that's trying to get just a little bit more from the starting pitchers. No one's gone more than 7 innings and that's only happened four times, but it's a... it's a start!

Magpie - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#399003) #

It's too bad I've lost the ability to type accurately. Never get old, kids.

John Northey - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#399005) #

Yeah, the waiver wire brigade has been exhausting lately.

Nice thing is games are going quicker. Last 3 were under 3 hours, first game vs NYY was 3:02, last Tampa game 3:52.

Crowds are funny this year - Dunedin games: 1,107 to 1,641 all are the lowest attended games. Lowest on the road is 2,893 in Oakland, up to 38,238 in Texas (opening day for Texas). Houston & Atlanta got 20k+ a game, Texas and NYY 10k-19k a game. It'll be interesting to see attendance figures at seasons end. Especially if the Jays can come home in August/September and are in contention. By September we should be as fully vaccinated as possible here (2 shots for all who want it, with 80%+ having it).

Last 7 days...

Ray: 11 2/3 IP in 2 games
Ryu: 11 2/3 IP in 2 games
Stripling: 7 IP in 1 game
Matz: 6 2/3 IP in 1 game
Manoah: 6 IP in 1 game
-----------
Romano: 3 IP in 3 games
Thornton: 3 IP in 3 games
Chatwood: 2 IP in 2 games
Castro: 1 2/3 IP in 2 games
1 1/3 IP: Cole, Dolis, Mayza
Bergen: 0.1 IP in 1 game (now IL)
Payamps: 0 IP in 1 game (3 batters, 13 pitches, 2 H 1 BB, 4 R, 3 ER)
Tice: on roster, not used in past week

Might be time to look at going down to a 7 or 8 man pen. Options available: Castro, Mayza, Payamps, Tice, Thornton - I'd think Tice and Payamps are at the highest risk of going down.

For options and when last used FanGraphs has a great page for quick reference I find.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#399006) #

"Might be time to look at going down to a 7 or 8 man pen."

And who is Buffalo call-up if a pen guy is sent down? Because I don't see anyone.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#399007) #

Mets leading Atlanta 4-1 in the 6th. Drury hits a 2 run shot. Same inning, 6 batters later, McKinney hits a 3 run shot. Gonna call them Peaches and Herb from now on. "Reunited and it feels so good". Just gotta figure out which one is which.

Chuck - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#399008) #

And Villar homers. And Walker starts and wins. And Pillar is forced to watch, due to injury. Good thing the Mets wear blue.

Chuck - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#399009) #

And Castro and Reid-Foley pitch in relief.

hypobole - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 11:27 PM EDT (#399010) #

And now the Orioles. Late April they split a 4 gamer vs the Yankees, took 2 of 3 from the A's and 2 of 3 from the Mariners, with Means no-hitter on May 5th the final game of that set. The O's were 15-16.

They've gone 2-19 since and on a 12 game losing streak. Their 17-35 record is dead last in MLB.

Magpie - Saturday, May 29 2021 @ 11:33 PM EDT (#399011) #

And Castro and Reid-Foley pitch in relief.

They didn't need Loup?

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#399012) #

So the Mets are the ex-Jays now?

Villar: 231/318/385 99 OPS+ 0.4 WAR at 3B
Pillar: 250/294/388 93 OPS+ 0.1 WAR in CF
Drury: 214/267/429 94 OPS+ -0.1 WAR at 1B/3B/LF/RF
McKinney: 2 for 5 with a double & walk in LF/RF and a 70 OPS+ in Milwaukee before that.
Stroman: 152 ERA+ in 58 1/3 IP, 10 starts
Walker: 184 ERA+ in 44 IP 8 starts (10 day IL)
Castro: 136 ERA+ in 19 1/3 IP 17 relief, 2 starts, he is just 26 - seems to have been forever, came up in 2015 with Osuna as the 20 year old wonderkids
Loup: 139 ERA+ in 13 IP 17 relief
Reid-Foley: 1.54 ERA in 11 2/3 IP 5 games in relief, 1 BB 18 SO
Diaz: 2 shutout innings in 2 games

Quite a few there. SRF I felt would be a really good reliever, Walker I'd have liked the Jays to resign, and Stroman was always a very good starter, a #1/2 guy for sure. The rest...not so much. So out of 9 guys, 3 I'd have liked the Jays to have kept, but no idea how they'd have kept SRF on the roster with the overcrowding. Stroman wanted to head off it seemed, Walker wanted to stay but will he be valuable in 2022? 2023? Who knows?

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#399013) #

I think you try to get guys from good teams.

Hernandez, Springer from Houston.
Semien form Oakland.
Panik, Matz, Kay from the Mets.
McGuire from Pirates.
Espinal, Payamps from Boston.
Ryu, Stripling from Dodgers.
Ray, Bergen, Beasley from Arizona.
Chatwood, Hatch form the Cubs.
Castro from Detroit.
Phelps from Phillies.
Merryweather from Cleveland.
Yates from the Padres.

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#399014) #

They didn't need Loup?

Evidently no left-handed Braves hitters needed to be plunked.

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#399017) #

Interesting chart someone posted about at another site... Average Age vs team OPS+

Not sure it is 100% accurate, but nice to look at. Jays average age is 26.5 for hitters with a 111 OPS+ (not counting pitchers hitting). Jay hitters are 1/2 a year younger than the next youngest (Cleveland), the Giants are the oldest at 30.9. Springer barely factors in as he has just 18 PA (sigh). Only Springer and Panik are over 30 among the non-pitchers.

Tampa is 27.4/110 OPS+, Boston 28.1/112, Yankees 29.3/96, Baltimore 27.1/92 (the tiny logo on the chart fits them).

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#399018) #

For May the Jay hitters...

1000+ OPS: Springer, Semien, Vlad
900's: Hernandez
800's: no one
700's: Grichuk, Bichette, Panik, Gurriel, Jansen
600's: Tellez, Biggio
500's: Davis, McGuire
400's: Kirk (0-2 with a walk)
000's: Stripling, Ray, Ryu (why do they let pitchers 'hit' again?)

So basically Davis & McGuire are the only guys with any real playing time to not hit at a level one can work with. Tellez & Biggio doing poorly, the rest are decent or great this month. Team line: 278/337/471 - 807 OPS. Nice.

hypobole - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#399019) #

why do they let pitchers 'hit' again?

Because the Union wouldn't agree to expanded playoffs.

Gerry - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#399020) #

Ty Tice has been DFA'd. Carl Edwards Jr added to the roster.

bpoz - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#399021) #

Was Tulo's $4mil buyout due in 2021 or 2022? "Gifted" confused me, like he got it early.

Good to see SRF and Y Diaz showing a little something. Wink is also progressing well in AA. Matz has given us great value for 2021.

I don't bother about winning the trade or not unless it is a massive one sided win like getting Donaldson and Teoscar. OR losing Michael Young. Or getting Juan Guzman.

I don't know what the baseball world thought about S Green for R Mondesi.

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#399022) #

Interesting. Carl Edwards Jr has been super-wild in his career - 5.1 BB/9 lifetime vs 12.1 K/9 but just 5.0 H/9, keep those hits low and you can survive but boy that is a risky arm. Faced 5 hitters with Atlanta this year 3 H, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR 1 WP. In the minors 5 IP 2 H 1 BB 6 SO. 5 games in 2020 with Seattle 4 2/3 IP 2 H 1 BB 6 SO. If Walker can help him find the strike zone like Ray has then he could be something special. If not, another waive goodbye. Tice is a 16th round pick who shot through the minors (3 years plus 2020), never a top 100 prospect, not on anyones top Jay prospect list and some go 50 deep.

hypobole - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#399023) #

Was Tulo's $4mil buyout due in 2021 or 2022? "Gifted" confused me, like he got it early.

It was due this year. I meant gifted as in the Jays have been paying him to do absolutely nothing since his 0.1 fWAR contribution in the 1st half of the 2017 season.

85bluejay - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#399024) #

Since taking over in Atlanta and blessed with a talented young team and strong farm system built by the infamous John Coppolella (banned for life),it's been smooth sailing for AA with 3 straight division titles - It now appears he's hit his first turbulence with the team underperforming and now this Ozuna mess - will be interesting to see how he reacts.

bpoz - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#399025) #

Thanks hypobole.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#399026) #

I doubt they did much with him but he's probably a better 1 inning reliever than Tice.
2 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts in 5 Buffalo innings.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#399027) #

They flipped Civale and Hentges.
Not clear why, but maybe they're trying to win at least one of the 2 games?

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#399028) #

Also, is throwing to McGuire part of Stripling's adjustments?

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#399029) #

Nothing but 7-inning games any more. 9 guys in the bullpen. Surely the complaints about relievers getting overworked can stop soon.

92-93 - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#399030) #

The strategy of using an opener for Stripling was a good one that worked to maximize his effectiveness, and shouldn't have been abandoned because Thornton struggled as the opener. Let's see what Ross can do today as the pure starter.

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#399031) #

Clown music needs to be playing when pop-ups are hit with Cleveland fielding.

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#399032) #

And ground balls, too.

Nigel - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#399033) #

The least earned run in the history of earned runs.

92-93 - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#399034) #

What's the logic behind the whole "can't assume a double play" scoring rule? If it's routine effort, it should be scored as such.

There's less of a need for an opener when your opponent's first two batters are sporting an OPS around .650.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#399035) #

If they still have that guy beating the drums, it's as good as clown music.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#399036) #

It's kinda like an anti-opener lineup.

They should just bat their best hitters 1-2. Oh, well.

Civale is a bit like Ryu, I guess.

I think the logic is that the fielder can decide to just take his time and go for only one out and that's fine.
At this point, it's mostly tradition.

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#399037) #

These heavily injured Yankee and Cleveland lineups have been pretty darned limp competition.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#399038) #

We haven't seen Baltimore and Detroit yet.

Stripling is throwing from an abbreviated windup and hiding the ball.
Fastballs 90-94mph.
Seems like he dropped the slider altogether, his weakest pitch.
Changeups and curves the second time around.
1 Strikeout? No walk. Lots of weak contact, which, in his case, reminds me of Estrada.
Lots of pop ups and lazy flyballs.

Sorta what you'd get out of Zeuch if he threw more strikes.
Kay is another guy who would play without the walks.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#399040) #

Mize dueled Cole to a tie that the Yankees bullpen lost.
They they brought Garcia and King up to start the next 2 games and they haven't been any good.
They saved their starters for a 4-game series against Tampa starting Monday.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#399043) #

Hentges is like Mayza with a curveball.

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#399045) #

Did Davis just miss the cutoff man and allow the tying run to go to third?

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#399046) #

Yep, Davis tried the hero thing.

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#399047) #

22 pitches, 5 strikes.

Chuck - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#399048) #

Chatwood has a long history of control issues.

AWeb - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#399049) #

What the hell is going on? There must be another guy, but now it's a terrible spot. 21 bslls and 6 strikes should be impossible...

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#399050) #

WTF Charlie?

Four Seamer - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#399051) #

Charlie is managing this like he’s late for the plane.

Hodgie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#399052) #

Did Montoyo decide to take a nap once it was 4-0?

AWeb - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#399053) #

Wait, there was someone else available? G$%#@m terrible.

christaylor - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#399054) #

Bullpen implosions and mismanagement occur in a long season but they're never fun to watch. The trouble is a) bullpen arms seem easy enough to find b) bad decisions on pitching usage are usually obvious not merely in hindsight but before it all goes sideways.

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#399055) #

Sometimes you snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Sometimes you reach way, way down Victory's throat and yank it out.

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#399056) #

A manager loss if there ever was one. Not having someone ready when Chatwood has been wild was bizarre. All I can figure is he decided Chatwood needed a lesson even if it cost a game.

greenfrog - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#399057) #

Can someone please explain to me the pitching changes (lack thereof) in this game? I’m very confused.

Michael - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#399058) #

On the one hand that's on Chatwood for not being able to throw strikes, but really that has to be on the manager. The bullpen is about as fresh as can be imagined for a game 2 of a doubleheader, how do you not have someone ready to come in? Maybe you let Chatwood walk the first two, but why oh why do you let him walk 4 with pretty much none of the pitches even close? On his final batter I was hoping they'd call continual pickoff moves to give the pitchers time to warm up and not have him pitch with the bases loaded, although I was worried he wouldn't be able to hit the firstbaseman either.

Mike D - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#399059) #

That was way too high a price to pay to teach Chatwood a lesson about showing the manager up. Inexcusable and unfair to the team.

Kasi - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#399060) #

Shame Chatwood has long his release so much lately. Wonder if he will be on the IR soon. I was surprised he even came back out for the 7th it I have no idea why he was kept in so long to keep walking people. I would have had Castro in there from the start of the 7th. Only thing I can possibly think of was giving Chatwood the chance this time to clean up his mess, but I think you should worry about wins first over coddling your players.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#399061) #

Always remember the wisdom of Lou Pinella:

You can't win if you don't throw strikes.

Rich - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#399062) #

I can understand Chatwood starting the inning but having no one up is absolutely inexcusable especially as he didn’t look particularly good in the sixth. By the second walk it was abundantly clear he didn’t have it and was going to blow the game and not having somebody ready to replace him especially with no game tomorrow is a fireable offense. Absolutely inexcusable for a major league manager.

Four Seamer - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#399063) #

It’s a shame that they didn’t do better in the top of the 7th in the first game with bases loaded and nobody out for Bichel’s, Guerrero and Hernandez; cash more than one there and we presumably get Castro instead of Romano, and Romano in the 7th of the second game. Still, that doesn’t forgive Espinal, Davis, Chatwood and Montoyo from throwing the second game away.

Hodgie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#399064) #

Chatwood had no business seeing the 7th inning - it was apparent in the 6th that he had zero control once again. Espinal is also not helping his case for a roster spot with his contributions to multiple blown leads in the last week. When you are a black-hole offensively you had better at least make the plays in the field that you are supposed to make. I just hope somebody wakes Montoyo before he misses the flight.

Rich - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#399065) #

“I just hope somebody wakes Montoyo before he misses the flight.“

Well that makes one of us.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#399066) #

So that's another game they lost and really shouldn't have.
So many of these losses they're not being beaten; they're literally handing it away.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#399067) #

What Mike D said.

I am a fan of Charlie Montoyo, but the ending of this game was not a high moment.

Kasi - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#399068) #

I wouldn’t call the ones last week this. In the two 2-run blown saves they sent their best pitchers out and they just got beat. Also in the other two they had multiple innings in extras with home field and such and their batters kept swinging for the fences. Problem right now is you can see Semien is really the only one with a good approach in tough situations. Bo, Vlad and Teo all press more in those situations and consistently come up short. They consistently show their youth in pressure situations.

This one however I don’t understand unless it was to teach the team a lesson. I’d rather have the win than the lesson though. Still a good week but it could have been better just a shame.

92-93 - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#399069) #

They didn't even need to do better in the top of the 7th of game 1, they just needed the manager to ignore the save stat and not use his best reliever up 3 runs when they still had another game left to play. If locking that W down was so important then so was having someone up behind Chatwood in a 1 run affair.

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#399070) #

In his last three appearances, Chatwood has faced 20 hitters. He's walked 9 in 3.1 innings. He's thrown 69 pitches, 22 for strikes.

Having one of his spells?

Nigel - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#399071) #

I thought Montoyo had a really bad day at the end of both games of the doubleheader.

Four Seamer - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#399072) #

Today was one of those days where Montoyo shows himself to be out of his depth as a major league manager, at least as far as managing his pitching staff is concerned. As Nigel observes, he did it twice today (the old adage six days a week and twice on Sundays seems to apply here).

grjas - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#399073) #

Montoyo isn‘t adapting to a bullpen that now has few reliable arms. In the first game, he had a starter at 67 pitches and a 2 hitter going in the 5th and he rushes to use 2 of his 3 most reliable pitchers rather than seeing if Striping- who threw 7 innings last time- could keep it going for another inning or two.

So he gets to the next game throws in the only other pitcher he trusts in late innings, and when he fails, Montoyo is too frightened to bring out the B team.

When you have little BP talent, it would be wise to use them judiciously.

uglyone - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#399074) #

I would lay the blame on the relievers.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#399075) #

I would not have done any different with Stripling.
Matz only threw 69 pitches.
Chatwood should not have been back in the 7 though.

greenfrog - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#399076) #

How did Chatwood show up the manager?

Magpie - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#399078) #

How did Chatwood show up the manager?

Last week against Tampa, after he got hooked for The Bergen show. Chatwood is reported to have said "I could have done that" and "That could have been our whole f***ing season right f***ing there."

greenfrog - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#399079) #

So Mike D’s theory is that Montoyo left the struggling Chatwood in the game for far too long, in order to shame him in front of the team for his earlier comments? If so, that is petulant and unprofessional (for one thing, it may have cost the team a win).

The team is 26-24, but it’s Pythagorean record is 29-21. I’m not sure what that means, but I know I prefer overachieving to underachieving.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#399080) #

What's the logic behind the whole "can't assume a double play" scoring rule?

I suppose it just sounds unfair to apply an error to what is ultimately a fielder's choice.

Rule 9.12 (d) - The Official Scorer shall not charge an error against:
(3) any fielder who makes a wild throw in attempting to complete a double play...unless such wild throw enables any runner to advance beyond the base...Comment: When a fielder muffs a thrown ball that, if held, would have completed a double play...charge an error to the fielder who drops the ball and credit an assist to the fielder who made the throw.

The throwing error allowing an extra base seems like a separate event. The fielding error on a dropped ball would appear to be the lone exception.

Kasi - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#399081) #

Or it could be to show support to him, which is what Charlie said coming out of the game. Regardless this was a case where they chose personal reasons (whatever they were) over tactical reasons.

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#399082) #

No matter how you cut it this was a disaster. With the pen 100% rested and a day off tomorrow I got using your best 2 in game 1 to lock down a win as you never know what will happen game 2. But late in game 2 with a 4 run lead you have 2 guys getting ready - just in case when you have an off day and everyone rested. Castro was obviously on the list to pitch today, and Cole could've been his backup after Chatwood did his job, more or less, in the 6th. Yes, Matz was cruising but anyone who watches baseball knows how fast things can fall apart. So in the 6th it would've been smart to have someone getting ready just in case, or once the error happened to have someone getting ready. With just 2 innings to play and 7 rested guys in the pen you shouldn't hesitate to use any of them. In the 6th all 8 pitches that they didn't put in play were balls off of Chatwood. That should've been a big flashing red light. Sure was to me, but I just checked to confirm. Only 3 pitches that weren't in play that were strikes from Chatwood. I mean, how much worse could've he pitched? There had to be more to it than we know. I generally trust the manager knows 1000 times what I do but this really looked bad. Castro, Cole, Payamps, Mayza, Thornton and new guy Edwards had to wonder why they were even in the park during that mess.

At this point I'm wondering if the Jays instead of chasing starters will be chasing relievers for the stretch run. Losing Yates & Phelps for the year hurts a lot, Borucki & Hatch should be back someday, hopefully Merryweather in the 2nd half sometime. Chatwood at this point has to be on thin ice. 10 walks in 4 games over 4 1/3 IP is nightmarish, just 1 K over those 4 games. 6 ER and could've been worse. Just 3 hits somehow (guess they were all waiting for a walk). Before that 16 IP 8 H 4 BB 23 SO. If the manager wants to send a message to a player then do it in a blowout, not a tight game. Chatwood should've been done after the 6th with Castro given the 7th with Cole or someone else ready just in case. I keep saying it mainly because I can't believe it didn't happen.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#399083) #

I missed the end, but it looks to me like Matz was cruising and sent out for the 6th while Chatwood was getting ready to throw the 7th if needed.

Then Espinal commited an error.
The 9th hitter hit a double on the first pitch. 4-1.
The lead off hitter grounded to left field on the second pitch.
Then Rosario hit a ground ball to Bichette--first pitch--but Matz deflected it. 4-2. Runners on first and none out.
Chatwood comes in. Jose Ramirez at the plate. He singles one runner scores, the other on third, still no out. 4-3
Harold Ramirez at the plate. He hits into a double play. The runner on 3rd scores. 4-4, 2 outs, bases empty.
Rosario Walks on 4 pitches.
They sub Bauer for Miller and he lines out.

The Jays take the lead in the 7th. 5-4.
Chatwood has thrown 11 pitches.
Coming to the plate are Naylor, Yu Chang and the catcher Rivera.
Castro is the next guy up, do you send him or stick to Chatwood?

Naylor flies out on 2 pitches.
Chang walks on 5 pitches.
Zimmer pinch hit for Rivera walks on 4 pitches.
Top of the order.
Mount visit. Maybe Walker wants to give Chatwood a chance?
Hernandez walks on 5 pitches.
Rosario walks on 5 pitches. 5-5
They bring castro and Jose Ramirez go 1-2 and fouls 2 or 3 pitches before hitting the winning sac fly to right field

In the pen, Montoyo had Castro, Beasley, Cole, Edwards, Mayza and Payamps.
It was a tougher call than it looks.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#399084) #

It was an easy call that Chatwood had absolutely no control on this day. He wasn't making competitive pitches on the first or second pitches of an at-bat over and over again. Showing support for a pitcher, to me, is sticking with him when he makes one or two bad pitches over 15 that come back to haunt him. When he doesn't have it at all, the merciful thing to do for him, and the best thing for the club, is to take him out.

scottt - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#399085) #

It's not just Montoyo, I have to believe that Walker had a word about it too.
They must have thought he'd settle down for the 7th.

John Northey - Sunday, May 30 2021 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#399086) #

As I said, Chatwood clearly had zero control in the 6th and given his last few games pulling seemed an easy choice, or at the very least to have someone ready to come in if he didn't quickly find the strike zone. You want to show a guy loyalty and give him rope? Fine, but don't wait until he has blown the game by walking everyone in sight. Yes, the pen guys aren't the greatest, but if you can't use any of them with a 1 run lead then why do you have them on the roster? Castro and Cole have shown talent in the past, so having both of them ready to go in the 7th if Chatwood couldn't find the zone quickly makes sense, if you bring in one then he has issues you just live with it due to the 3 batter rule. But like I said earlier - Montoyo just told all the relievers other than Dolis and Romano that they are useless - he'd rather have a guy on the mound who can't find the strike zone than any of them. So he might have shown one guy a lot of faith but told the others they are worthless.

Barry Bonnell - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#399088) #

Alternate theory.

Montoyo has a very milquetoast personality. I don't think I have ever seen him get into an argument with an umpire. I think he wanted to avoid another possible confrontation with Chatwood.

bpoz - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#399089) #

I see Montoyo and Walker giving Chatwood plenty of rope to get out of the jam or hang himself and shut up. Too bad Chatwood or Castro could not get the double play. This is a heavy price to pay to teach him and the whole team "who is in charge".

A few years ago, 2014, C Janssen lost the closers job to A Sanchez. He complained.

Rich - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#399090) #

I think he wanted to avoid another possible confrontation with Chatwood.

I tend to doubt that but if that is the case - that he was prepared to see him blow the game just to avoid a confrontation - then he is in the wrong job. The Manager's mission is to win games. No, you can't win them all and sometimes it's not your day, but when you have a lead late in the game it's your responsibility to be as prepared as possible. And he failed to do that. As they said on Jays Talk afterwards, it's the process even more than the decision that's problematic.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#399091) #

Part of it is that Chatwood is a multi-inning guy and he was the highest guy left on the totem pole.
Mayza is the only lefty left and he's been terrible of late.
Maybe Castro is a good candidate to trust into high leverage situations.
Payamps might have been fine against the bottom of the order.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#399092) #

If Chatwood did say what was reported, agree it seems a case of "OK, bigmouth. You claim you can do it, so do it"

Or maybe, as the authorities said about Stumpy Pepys bizarre gardening death, it's best left unsolved.

Rich - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#399093) #

Cole didn't seem like an unreasonable option to have warm so Chatwood could be relieved after the second walk. At that point he had (I believe) thrown 8 balls in 9 pitches to start the inning, most of which missed the strike zone for a foot or more. Of course there is no guarantee anyone else wouldn't have also blown the game but the team's best chance at that point was clearly to at least try. If he really wanted to let Chatwood sink or swim why bother going to Castro at all? Nothing changed between the second walk and the fourth one.

jz6pwc - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#399094) #

The other thing that bothered me before they even played the game is the 27th man was a pitcher. Why? Rested bull pen, the lineup for that game was constructed in a way that meant there would not be a lot they could do for pinch hitting if needed... then to add insult to injury, they pulled the Chatwood move with a loaded bullpen, which included Beasley, the 27th man. (No idea what they see in him.) I'm not sure if a pinch hitter would have changed much in terms of more run support, but that isn't the point. Its more about some questionable decision making by the manager who is ultimately accountable.

I really think Montoyo was sending a message, not only to Chatwood, but to everyone else who challenges his decision making on when he takes pitchers out of a game. He is not one to take someone aside and get into a shouting match with them, so this is what he thinks of as an alternative.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#399095) #

Given we didn't see Cole even start to warm up at any point I wonder if he has some nagging injury still. That would explain it as who the heck wants Mayza in the game unless it is a blowout, or Payamps? Castro might have been the only alternative available. It was a bad situation. Montoyo had been doing a great job juggling the pen of waivers so far but we all knew it had to fall apart at some point. Really need some guys to come back from injury and/or trade for a decent guy for middle relief. Kirby Snead has done OK in AAA relief (9 games, 1 save 10 1/3 IP 7 H 2 R 1 ER 4 BB 14 SO - a so far so good guy, 10th round pick in 2016 who has always been a reliever (got a start this year but just 2 IP so an opener). A left hander so might be worth calling up and sending Mayza down as I doubt the manager has an ounce of trust in Mayza. Not many choices really as the Jays have pretty much called up everyone they could. Baltimore's closer is having a bad year by ERA but it appears 100% BABIP driven - Cesar Valdez. Doing a quick check of some terrible teams I quickly get the feeling trades for pitching will be hard this year as with 8 to 9 man pens across the board pitching is stretched thin everywhere.

Mike Green - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#399096) #

I found the whole thing strange. If the only pitcher you have confidence in to close out the game is Chatwood, why wouldn't you let Matz go further in the 6th? He'd pitched a good game, walking nobody and striking out 4 and keeping the ball in the park. He had only thrown 69 pitches, and Cleveland's rally in the 6th resulted from not so much from Matz' getting hit hard as just the vagaries of balls in play. I am not saying that he would have done better than Chatwood, but he would have probably done at least as well.

Tyler Chatwood is 31 years old and hasn't really been a valuable pitcher since 2016. He started off 2021 pitching exceptionally well in a medium leverage role. There's nothing wrong with that at all, and every club needs pitchers like that.

jz6pwc - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#399097) #

John. If there is something wrong with Cole that would explain it. But then leave Matz in the game.... or give Carl Edwards Jr. a chance after the 6th with a clean inning. Not ideal, but I agree with you that it was clear Chatwood didn't have it in the 6th.... he may of thought that if he did that an Carl Edwards Jr. got in trouble then what.

Thinking out loud here... the best option would have been to leave Matz in and take your chances that way. Over all, he needs to let his starters run longer... This includes Stripling in the first game.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#399098) #

The 27th man problem is that the only healthy position player in Buffalo on the 40 man is Riley Adams.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#399099) #

Matz was done. He was getting hit on first or second pitch and not getting outs.
He put 4 baserunners on in the 6th and did not record an out, thanks in part to the error.
Remember that Matz got shelled like this many times last year and had some troubles with Washington and Philadelphia. It's not like this happened without any mound visits.
It was time to bring a guy who could strike hitters out.
Chatwood is less hittable than Matz and that was not the problem.

Now Chatwood got 3 outs on 11 pitches but blew the save.
Do you send him back or bring somebody else?

Normally, they'll always have one of Dolis or Romano to close on back to back day if necessary.
Cole has gotten very little work. Not sure why. Could be medical.
Mayza is a mess right now, but he's the only lefty able to pitch.
Castro and Payamps have good arms, but little experience.

Next time, they'll try somebody else, but the result might not be any better.

Chuck - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#399100) #

It seems everyone, most people here and the media alike, were baffled by Montoyo's decision yesterday to not have a Plan B reliever warming up to start the 7th with an obviously wild Chatwood in the game.

Chatwood has fought control issues for much of his career, typically walking 4.x per 9. He went entirely off the rails in 2018, leading all of MLB in walks in just 103 innings, so there is a worrisome low that he can sink to. We'll see if Walker can help sort out if this is mechanical or mental. Something has definitely changed in the past week.

jz6pwc - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#399101) #

Chuck. I think its mental. Could see by the meltdown in the last game he pitched he may have composure issues. If true I'm not sure Pete can fix it. I hope I'm wrong.

Cracka - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#399103) #

My observation is that Montoyo and Walker make meticulous pitching plans and then stick to them come hell or high water. Each pitcher has a pre-determined # of batters to face: Top of the order, bottom of the order, 3 batters only, multi-innings, etc. This rarely is altered by performance, good or bad. In this case, it was Chatwood's job to go multiple innings and finish the 7th/game, and they were going to let him do that until it was no longer possible (tie game). Most MLB managers are quicker to react to the on-field performance and less committed to their plan, but Montoyo and Walker are believers in the "Rays ways". Remember Game 1 of the 2020 Playoffs when Shoemaker was pulled after his scheduled 3 innings (despite shutting out the Rays on just 35 pitches). Same principle.

It worked really well in April and they looked like geniuses then, but when it doesn't work it leaves them wide open to second guessing.

Petey Baseball - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#399104) #

The X factor this season (it always is a huge factor, this year even more so) will continue to be health, and how quickly guys recover from injury.

Entering June, the Rays are in first place and are absolutely rolling, despite missing key members of their bullpen. The Yankees have been hit pretty hard injury-wise as well. The Red Sox have been the healthiest team. The Jays are missing a potential all-star centerfielder and have a decimated pitching staff.

I tend to think that despite the combination of bad luck and underachievement through the first 50 games, the Jays are in great shape. What troubles me some is that guys do not seem to be healing quickly from injuries despite the vaunted high-performance department. This is the edge Shapiro has always boasted about, but so far, the returns haven't borne fruit. Injuries are up all over the league, but I think the ability to get the Springer's, Merryweather's, Borucki's, etc and other future injured player back sooner is the key to the division. In short, this wacky season is really a referendum on the Jays medical and high performance departments.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#399106) #

The Yankees have been hit by injuries but not really that hard.
They didn't lost Stanton for long. Judge has been healthy.
They just didn't add enough pitching depth and that's because they're on a budget.

The Jays' most important pitchers have been healthy.
The one injured position player has adequate coverage.

I don't know about the Rays.
Average Joes put career years in Tampa uniform and turn back into pumpkins when they leave Florida.
They lost Choi for over a month. He's got an OPS over 1.

The Red Sox have been very healthy.

Springer should be coming back in a few weeks.
No news on Merryweather and Borucki which is ominous.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#399107) #

People keep complaining about or even mocking the High Performance Department for injury issues. Those are Training staff/Strength and Conditioning issues. Every team has those and I guess some are better than others. The HPD also includes nutritionists, sports psychologists and sleep experts. I'd like anyone to explain how those areas have anything to do with Springer's or Merryweather's injuries.

Just like the training staff is part of the HPD, Blue Jays are part of Rogers. But no one blames Rogers for the Derek Fisher or Drury/McKinney trades.

Nigel - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#399108) #

hypobole, (I apologize because I don't know how to link an article) but in Atkins' May 6 interview with Shi Davidi (I found it on the Sportnet site) its seems that injury prevention and management is part of the HPD. Its also clear that, as you say, the department focuses on a wide range of performance and health issues. Atkins said he believes that the HPD is generally helping but he also acknowledged the HPD's performance as it related to injuries as "mixed". FWIW I find the mocking of the department in general odd (players and pitchers in particular get hurt) but I don't think the club's handling of the Springer situation will go down as anyone's idea of success.

Magpie - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#399109) #

[Chatwood] went entirely off the rails in 2018, leading all of MLB in walks in just 103 innings

In that difficult season, when Chatwood walked 95 hitters in 103.2 innings, he threw 1950 pitches and just 1084 (55.6% were strikes.) Which is awful. Even so, he actually threw more strikes than balls in 20 of his 24 outings, as well as over the season as a whole.

What we've seen over the last ten days is far, far worse. In his last three games this season, while walking 9 of 20 batters, Chatwood has thrown 69 pitches, 22 strikes. That's 31.8%, which would have Steve Blass sadly shaking his head. Yes, Steve Blass did walk 9 of 20 batters, once, during his year of infamy. It also came over three appearances (his two games in July 1973 and his one appearance that August.) But there you are - Chatwood has actually come down with Steve Blass Disease. One must hope it's a temporary thing.

All managers have to deal with recency bias, but Montoyo does seem to have formed the notion that the real Chatwood is the guy from the first six weeks. That's the guy Montoyo has seen, up close and all of that. It's probably just as big an outlier as the guy from 2018.

Hey, it's complicated. Is Tim Mayza the guy who posted a 0.00 ERA and didn't walk anyone in 10 April appearances, or the guy who had a 14.73 ERA in 9 May games? Neither, I'm guessing.

Magpie - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#399111) #

People keep complaining about or even mocking the High Performance Department for injury issues.

I hope you don't catch me doing that. It's generally my belief that many, if not most, injuries are simply Random Misfortune.

I'll tell you something, though. I've been watching sports for many, many, many years now. And athletes have been hurting themselves this whole time. And they've been tearing ligaments in their knees all this time. No one ever used to specify whether it was the anterior cruciate or the medial collateral ligament. I'm sure the surgeon knew, but no one else ever did. And they'd go under the knife, and you'd actually expect them back in action in six to eight weeks.

No wonder they were never quite the same.

Chuck - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#399112) #

I was waiting for the dreaded name Steve Blass to be dropped. Or Rick Ankiel. Dontrelle Willis. Daniel Bard. Ricky Romero. Mark Wohlers. Charlie Kerfeld.

Ankiel came back as a non-pitcher. Bard improbably revived his career many, many years later. Wohlers eventually tamed his wildness but at the expense of strikeouts.

hypobole - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#399113) #

Wholeheartedly concur, Nigel. Jays have had a lot of turmoil in their injury prevention staff and it's been going on quite a while.

Sanchez had a finger mutilated by Poulis, who was let go after 2017. Huffman injured JD's calf and quit after 2019. So we're on our 3rd trainer in 5 years. And there might be a 4th in the near future. Wonder if they can poach Alex McKechnie from the Raptors, even though they also were far from the picture of health this season.

Chuck - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#399114) #

No wonder they were never quite the same.

What are you talking about? Bobby Orr almost made it to 30.

Nigel - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#399115) #

Sorry, but the man wearing Orr's jersey in his late 20's (when he could get on the ice at all) wasn't Bobby Freaking Orr.

Waveburner - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#399116) #

A note I saw that shows just how extreme that performance from Chatwood and Montoyo was:

This is a doozy:

Tyler Chatwood’s strike percentage today (22%) was the LOWEST OF ANY MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL PITCHER SINCE 1988 (when pitches were first tracked)

Lowest Strike
Since 1988

Tyler Chatwood (2021) 22
Chris Nabholz (1994) 27%
Josh Hader (2020) 28%
*min 30 P

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack)

ISLAND BOY - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#399118) #

My take on the debacle yesterday was that Montoyo was trying to show Chatwood he had confidence in him by not having someone else warming up. The whole thing looked bad whatever the case, and I agreed with Buck Martinez, although he belabored the point, that Stripling should have been allowed to pitch longer. This whole " we're taking him out after the second time through the order no matter what " mantra drives me nuts. If a pitcher has taken less than 70 pitches to get through 5 innings then let him keep going for heaven's sake.

I like Charlie Montoyo but I'm starting to wonder about his game strategy and whether the team would be better served with a different manager going forward into another year. That's not even mentioning bunting with two strikes.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#399119) #

Montoyo seems to be doing the Cito thing - use the regular season to figure out what guys can and cannot do then you are set for the playoffs. Cito in his first 2 tried managing as he did in the regular season and was out in the first round. Then he switched gears and won 2 WS in a row. Sadly the team then let Gord Ash control who was on the roster and disaster ensued. Well, outside of the 1995 draft where he took Halladay.

pooks137 - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#399123) #

I would imagine the HPD also has very little impact on injury prevention and training programs inseason.

The players simply play too many games, with half of them on the road, with too few days off between April 1st and October 1st. I would surmise that the average MLB player is doing very little training inseason other than the daily routine of batting practice/fielding drills/weight training/cardio. There just isn't enough dedicated time or recovery time available to do anything innovative.

Any cutting-edge training gains wrt to the HPD are going to have to take place during the offseason or ST. The other issue is that technically players aren't actively employed during the offseason, so any changes to a player's training regimen can only be suggested but in the end the player has to buy in while living afar.

scottt - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#399124) #

Rays kept it going against the Yankees and the Houston took it to Boston.
11-2.

The pitch count is overblown here.
When you're cruising and suddenly can't get an out, there's no reason to keep the starter in.
However, you need to bring relievers who throw strikes.
Nothing fancy, they just need some guys who can throw hard.
Now Cleveland's best hitters happen to be left handed, and the Jays are short on lefty relievers.
So you don't fool around and bring the heat against the bottom of the lineup.

Kasi - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#399125) #

There is also the point that with Covid last year most players (especially nearly all MLB players) did not train in Dunedin in the offseason. They all trained on their own in their own locations. I forgot where I read this but someone was saying that injury rates among players who trained at the facilities was lower than those working out on their own offsite. Hopefully that data was corrected for age since players offsite are likely older.

greenfrog - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#399126) #

The Rays are 35-20 and they have yet to call up Franco (wRC+ of 124 in AAA at age 20). They also have a slew of 60 and 50 FV prospects behind him. They're emerging as the elite team in the division, on an estimated payroll of $62m. Remarkable.

Michael - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#399127) #

I don't mind sticking to a plan about taking pitchers out even when they are pitching pretty well (if that is what is happening). Personally I'd rather try stretching some of the starters out and think 3rd time through the order and 100+ pitches doesn't need to be a big thing and some of the mid-rotation types should get the chance to do that when circumstances are good (they look good, the opponents aren't great, the game state seems decent). So while I think the early hook in game 1 of Stripling and the pull of Matz in game 2 may have been "mistakes" they are close decisions and don't deserve that much scorn. However, failing to have anyone warming up for the 7th and sticking with Chatwood for too long is a different kind of mistake. Having a plan and pulling someone when they looked good is at worst an ambiguous mistake (you don't know if they would have kept pitching well - in which case you made a mistake in pulling them - or blown up - in which case you were brilliant to pull them when you did), leaving someone in too long is a clear mistake that has happened. It might be your plan to have the starter pitch 5 innings and change and have Chatwood finish the 7 inning game, but once it is clear from the results that Chatwood doesn't have it (and isn't even close to having it) sticking with him is a clear mistake. In other words it is ok to have a plan that a pitcher will pitch at most X pitches/batters/innings but it isn't ok to have a plan that a pitcher will pitch at least Y innings because his performance may mean that Y is way too much.

It would have been one thing if Chatwood was serving up batting practice pitches and Cleveland was teeing off on the pitches. Then you could think maybe he was unlucky, maybe much of the Cleveland batting order is weak enough that BP quality pitches could still lead to outs. But if he can't even come close to the strike zone (and most of the pitches were like a foot out of the zone, he wasn't missing close) then I could have been hitting and tied the game for Cleveland.

Magpie - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#399128) #

Cito in his first 2 tried managing as he did in the regular season and was out in the first round.

Not the way I saw it. I don't know if anything would have made a difference in 1989, but his most significant move in 1991 was to drop his catching platoon and go exclusively with Borders. Which was a disaster because Borders couldn't catch Candiotti.

John Northey - Monday, May 31 2021 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#399129) #

I agree nothing could've helped vs the juggernaut that was the 1989 A's (although the final 2 games of that series were just 1 run affairs and the Jays did win game 3). In 1991 only 10 guys got more than 2 PA with Ducey going 0-1 and Pat Tabler getting a walk and making an out. Biggest flub was giving Candiotti 2 starts but since Candiotti didn't trust Borders behind the plate few knuckleballs were thrown as I recall and he was hit hard. Looking at deeper stats with Borders his ERA was 4.26 (80 1/3 IP), with Myers 0.91 (49 IP). Sure looks like a dumb move by Cito. Weird thing - Myers was the better hitter that year, and played 2 more games than Borders. Wonder if he was hurt (can't recall now as it was so long ago and nothing listed online with a quick search). No question the #1 killer was not using the rookie in game 1/5 instead of the vet. Funny thing is Candiotti never pitched in the playoffs before that and would only get into 1 more game after that in the playoffs despite a 16 year career.

For fun I found video of game 1 of 1991's playoffs. Kind of interesting to watch. In game 1 he did throw a lot of knuckleballs from what I'm seeing so far (a few minutes)

scottt - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#399130) #

The Jays have signed Jared Hoying to minor league contract.
Maybe Palacios is headed to the 60IL?

bpoz - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#399131) #

Looking at the AL standings at 50+ games played, TB, CWS and Boston are in the top group. The 2nd group has 8 teams. Oakland is 6 games over 500 and KC is at 500. Jays are fairly comfortable. I don't know if I counted right. I get for May 28 games. 15 wins and 13 losses.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#399132) #

Jared Hoying - hasn't been in the majors, or North American baseball since 2017. 3 years in Korea - 284/345/498 there (not bad, but not wow, Eric Thames hit 349/451/721 there a few years ago for reference. In the majors he had a 34 OPS+ over 126 PA so I see him as a pure AAA depth piece. No way he gets a roster slot. He is a CF/LF/RF with 1 game at 1B in the minors and 1 inning on the mound.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#399133) #

Headed into June the Jays are now 27-25 6 1/2 back of the lead, 1 1/2 out of the wild card. Not bad. Not great, but not bad. How does this compare to their playoff appearances?

1985: 30-15 1st by 4 games, won division
1989: 20-31 7.5 out, won division (69-42 after)
1991: 27-21 tied for first, won division
1992: 31-19 first by 1 game, won WS
1993: 29-22 tied for 2nd back 2 1/2, won WS
2015: 23-29 4th 3 1/2 back, won Division/ALDS, went 70-40 after
2016: 28-26 3rd 5 back, 2 back of wild card, won WC/ALDS
2020: no games played yet. But on September 1st were 18-15 5 1/2 back, in 8th slot for playoffs

Boy 2020 is going to screw up a lot of stuff stats wise for a long time isn't it? Ah well. Big thing of note is the Jays have come back from a bigger deficit to win the division - but that was a very weak AL East that year (89 wins was all it took, Yankees sub 500, Red Sox 83 wins, Detroit had fallen apart 2 years after the amazing 1987 race to 59-103). The wild card though is there for the taking. 2 games isn't much.

I see this team as a lot like the 1984 team - tons of young kids who had their first big taste of winning the year before (1983 they were above 500 for the first time ever and had a shot but collapsed at the end). But the pen let the team down big time leading to the big trade of the team MVP (Dave Collins) and the starting SS (Alfredo Griffin) to get a closer (Bill Caudill who had 36 saves in 1984 and was an All-Star). Luckily they also snuck Tom Henke out of Texas as free agent compensation (last year that was a thing). 1984 had a lot of good kids who'd be the core for the great 80's teams. Lets hope this years core is the base for a lot of great 20's teams.

Magpie - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#399134) #

Sure looks like a dumb move by Cito. Weird thing - Myers was the better hitter that year,

I used to regard it as the most incomprehensible blunder of his career, but it was actually Gaston following the deepest, strongest tendency of his career - defense behind the plate. He always, always, always preferred the better defensive catcher. Only at this one spot on the diamond, but it runs through his entire managerial career. Strange but true.

hypobole - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#399135) #

June is when teams start calling around in anticipation of next months trade deadline. Goldstein at FG with the process:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-time-for-reach-out-calls-has-begun/

bpoz - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#399136) #

Very interesting hypobole. I liked the Scherzer, Springer part. I cannot remember how far Houston went in 2020 but Springer would have been needed. Scherzer will help Washington or any team that does get him, but the price has to be right.

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#399138) #

Holy smokes, just got in a '93 season wormhole. The '93 Tigers were 34-18 on June 5th. Kirk Gibson was like 40 years old....what gives?

hypobole - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#399139) #

AA has a mess on his hands. Marcell Ozuna charged with assaulting his wife. Will be a lot harder for him to get away with it than our Osuna did, because one of the officers actually witnessed him strangling his wife.

Don't know Ozuna well enough to know if there were issues before this incident, but AA's talent over makeup philosophy has bit him in the ass before.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/new-details-emerge-braves-ozuna-domestic-violence-arrest/X5PKHBLMVRGTXMLH7ZFOG4DMR4/

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#399140) #

And 43-25 in first place on June 20th. I had always remembered Detroit being terrible and the Jays whaling on them in the championship years. Wow. I guess Cecil Fielder was pretty good.

bpoz - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#399143) #

Waiver wire pen is a good name for what we have now. Losing Yates, Phelps, Merryweather (4.1IP) and Borucki reduced us to Romano, Dolis, Chatwood and Mayza. Chatwood and Mayza could not do the job recently. Time for the pen to get healthy and hot.

scottt - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#399145) #

This isn't a very weak AL East, but it's a very balanced AL East.
We can't really assume that the Rays, or anyone else, will massively outplay the other 3 teams.
The exception is the Orioles. They are on a 14 game losing streak and the Jays don't play them for another 17 days.

Boston was the hottest team in April.
Tampa in May.
Jay's month could be June (9 games against Baltimore) or August (6 games against Detroit, 2 against Baltimore).

The Rays traded Adames for some relievers. What's their next move? Walls for Franco?
They have 7 guys who will hit arbitration next year, 6 who will return to arbitration for more money, 4 free agents who are not making much; Hill, McHugh, Roe and Wacha and a bad contract on Kiermaier (12M). Archer is the only expensive guy coming off the books at 6.5M.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#399146) #

Petey Baseball - the '93 Tigers were a TTO team - a team of 2020 in 1993. Mickey Tettleton, Tony Phillips, and Alan Trammell all played over 100 games but weren't the regular at any and all had 130+ OPS+'s. But their 'regular' OF sucked royally - OPS+ of 99/59/84. Ugh. 3 of the 4 with 28+ starts had sub 100 ERA+'s with David Wells their 'ace' with his 103 after the Jays released him as Cito was sick of Wells attitude iirc.

scottt - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#399147) #

Payamps and Castro aren't necessary bad, just inexperienced.
Cole was decent last year. Hatch and Murphy are apparently on the mend.
I expect to see Edwards Jr. at some point. He pitched mostly in the NL, so against Miami is not really a good spot for him.
They could have sent Mayza to work on his stuff in Trenton but Bergen, Borucki and Kay are all on the IL.
Saucedo is a lefty that might be worth a shot if they can find a spot.
I'm not too worried about losing him...

Magpie - Tuesday, June 01 2021 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#399149) #

David Wells their 'ace' with his 103 after the Jays released him as Cito was sick of Wells attitude iirc.

And Derek Bell's. And Kelly Gruber's. Generally, the one time a manager has any power in an organization is when he's just won a World Series. Gaston didn't miss his moment!

Wells was a large (see what I did there?) reason the Tigers started out so well in 1993 - by mid June, old Boomer was 9-1, 2.78. Alas for Detroit, he faded badly in the second half (2-8, 5.94). Exactly as he'd done with the Jays in 1991.

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