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Things have not gone as planned for the 2022 Tigers.


After four dismal seasons playing worse than .400 baseball, hitting something very near rock bottom with their horrific 47-114 log in 2019, the Tigers showed signs of promise a year ago. Under new manager A.J. Hinch, they went 77-85. This winter, they invested in several free agents: starting pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Pineda along with shortstop Javier Baez. The traded with the Reds for catcher Tucker Barnhart and just before this season began obtained outfielder Austin Meadows from Tampa Bay. They were making moves! They also hoped to turn first base over to Spencer Torkelson, the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, and Detroit's reward for losing 114 games. Torkelson had hit 30 HRs while moving up through three minor league levels in 2021. They were bringing back a pair of very promising young starters in Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. They likely weren't yet ready to contend, but respectability was at last in sight.

But Torkelson hit .197/.282/.295 with just 5 HRs in half a season, and is back in AAA. Meadows, who hit 27 HRs and drove in 106 runs for Tampa Bay just a year ago, hasn't hit any homers for Detroit. Zero. He also hasn't played since mid-June with strains of both Achilles tendons. Their offense has plummetted off a cliff, and is falling, falling, falling - they've scored just 3.22 runs per game, making them the least offensive crew in the majors. Jonathan Schoop, who hit .278/.320/.4345 with 22 HRs last year? This time around, it's .207/.241/.307 with 6 HRs in 94 games. Baez has hit .218/.259/.374 and is signed for five more years after this one. Jeimer Candelario, who last season hit .271/.351/.443 with 16 HRs? How about .207/.271/.368 with 2 HRs. Robbie Grossman hit 23 homers a year ago. He's got just 2 this year. Miguel Cabrera just went 51 games without a homer - still, power outage notwithstanding, the old fellow has actually been the best hitter on the team, along with backup catcher Eric Haase and utility man Harold Castro (lately playing first base in place of Torkelson.)

Rodriguez made just 8 starts (1-3, 4.39) and hasn't pitched since mid-May while dealing with some personal issues. Casey Mize made two starts before going on the IL with elbow problems - he just last week had Tommy John surgery, so he's going to miss much of next season as well. Michael Pineda missed six weeks earlier this season, came back to make five less than impressive starts in July, and has gone back on the IL. Matt Manning opened the season filling in for Pineda - he made two starts and has been on the IL ever since. Beau Brieske filled one of the open slots in the rotation until he was shelved with a forearm problem last week. Wily Peralta, who pitched very effectively in the 2021 rotation, has spent this season in the bullpen, but he's been out with a strained hamstring. Rony Garcia is listed as Saturday's starter, but he came out of his last start with a sore arm, having just returned from the IL because of shoulder soreness.

Tarik Skubal has pitched pretty well (7-8, 3.99) and the bullpen has been rather good, led by all star closer Gregory Soto. They'll be missing veteran southpaw Andrew Chafin this weekend - he appears to be the only unvaccinated Tiger. They'll be handing the ball to our old chum Drew Hutchison on Saturday. Hutchison turns 32 next month and you have to like the way he's hung in there. Since being traded by the Jays in 2016 (for Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire, and Harold Ramirez - no wonder the Pirates are so bad), he's passed through these organizations: Phillies, Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees, Twins, Angels, and now Tigers. Hey, there are worse ways to make a living and he's earned a few million dollars along the way. Let them tell you when you can't do it anymore.

The Jays took two of three from the Tigers last month. The Jays won 10-1 in the Friday night opener; Jose Berrios pitched eight strong innings and Gurriel, Springer, and Bichette all hit early homers to ruin Elvin Rodriguez' evening. But Beau Brieske and four relievers shut down the Jays on Saturday afternoon, dealing Kevin Gausman a tough 3-1 loss. Toronto took the finale 6-0 as Ross Stripling and three relievers faced just one batter over the minimum, allowing the Tigers just two singles on the day. A two-run homer by Vlad Guerrero keyed a four run inning off Tarik Skubal, who came into the game 5-2, 2.33, but would lose his first of five in a row (0-5, 9.00) before getting himself turned back in the right direction.

Yusei Kikuchi comes off the IL to start tonight - there will be a corresponding roster move, but I haven't heard yet what it is. We can take odds, I suppose - Beasley? Castillo? Banda? One of those guys, surely. We are informed that Kikuchi has changed the grip on his slider to make it more of an actual slider and also changed his throwing program to create a more athletic motion. We shall see, I suppose.

Matchups!

Thu 28 July - Alexander (2-3, 4.05) vs Kikuchi (3-5, 5.12)
Fri 29 July - B.Garcia (---, -.--) vs Manoah (11-4, 2.24)
Sat 30 July - Hutchison (1-4, 4.84) vs Stripling (5-3, 3.10)
Sun 31 July - Hill (1-2, 5.57) vs Berrios (7-4, 5.20)
Detroit at Toronto, July 28-31 | 296 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#418220) #
Alexander is a lefty, so we should have the default all-right bat lineup.

Beasley is the guy going down. Banda doesn't have options.

jerjapan - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#418224) #
I sill pull for Hutch, although he seems like their version of Casey Lawrence at this point.  i always wonder if the career AAAA guys dream of managing, or just love the game enough to hang on. 
Hodgie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#418225) #
Might mean nothing at all, but no Moreno or Groshans in the Buffalo lineup today.
dalimon5 - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#418226) #
Very interesting
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#418227) #
Interesting interview with Keith Law on the radio. He questioned whether the Jays need to do a lot at the deadline. He thought they could promote Zulueta to the majors as a power arm out of the bullpen. Or alternatively, trade for a good-but-not-marquee bullpen arm like Fullmer or Lopez.

He also made the same point I made last night, that the Yankees managed to get Benintendi for a relatively light package of prospects. He didnít think that trade would ďset the marketĒ for other deals.
John Northey - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#418228) #
Moreno would only go for Soto I think, Groshans I fully expect to be part of a significant trade.
Gerry - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#418229) #
Buffalo played a day game after a night game so Moreno would not play.

Groshans does get regular days off, plus he has been injury prone.
Magpie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#418230) #
I was curious. The last team to score runs as seldom as the 2022 Tigers was the 2014 San Diego Padres. Playing half their games in Petco, and with pitchers in the batting order.
Hodgie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#418231) #
"Buffalo played a day game after a night game so Moreno would not play."

Killjoy.

krose - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#418232) #
Another soft tossing lefty perplexing our young guys. 🥴
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#418233) #
LHP, good stuff, efficient, good controlÖthis Kikuchi guy is pretty good.
krose - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#418234) #
Yup! Bet our young hitters could do better against Kikuchi.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#418236) #
I love everything about the reno with the exception of the stupid wavy fences. I hate that with the fury of 1000 suns
Hodgie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#418237) #
While I wait for news of the Moreno+Groshans for Ohtani trade, just saw that Orelvis has another 2HR game and itís just in the 6th inning. Also has 1BB and 1SF. Nice to see him heating up after a pronounced slump.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#418238) #
Barger homered and has reached base 4 times.  His W/K is also a much better 5/11 in 50 PAs.  That's decent, and will play just fine with 4 homers.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#418239) #
Thatís great about Orelvis. This is the week you want your prospects to excel.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#418240) #
Atkins: donít give away your good prospects cheaply. If youíre going to trade them, get someone great in return.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#418241) #
Suddenly Chapman is hitting an almost-lusty .245/.322/.466. What a good acquisition heís turning out to be.
Magpie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#418242) #
Springer's elbow barked at him pretty loudly on that last swing.
Petey Baseball - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#418243) #
All the more reason to be aggressive at the deadline. If Springer needs a DL stint, we don't get 2-3 weeks of Tapia and Zimmer.

I wonder if Jackie Bradley Jr. would be a fit here. He hasn't hit a lick this season, but you figure he's not quite finished yet.
Chuck - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#418244) #
We are going to hear WAY too much about the bunt.
Magpie - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#418245) #
[Bradley] hasn't hit a lick this season

Or last season. I'd much rather see Tapia or Zimmer instead. Either one.
uglyone - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#418246) #
We got the (one single) add on run!

Great motherbunting success!
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#418247) #
An IL stint for Springer seems like it could be a good idea (if that would help protect his elbow). Iím not worried about the team getting through the next 2-3 weeks without him. Iím more concerned about having him healthy and productive throughout the postseason.
Glevin - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#418248) #
Giants look to be fading and I can see some sort of Rodon/Joc Pederson that could give Jays a nice double boost (both are likely FA after this season so maybe not quite as expensive)
uglyone - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#418249) #

Angels listening on everybody, and for the first time that includes Ohtani. One rival says they want ďyour 4 top prospects.Ē Rivals all believe it is s major long shot that Angels ownership ultimately OKs a Shohei dealhttps://t.co/w1jajqf9sM

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 29, 2022
Moreno Tiedemann Orelvis Groshans Done and done.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#418250) #
That seems excessive for 1.5 years of Ohtani.

Zulueta Groshans Horwitz for Castillo
uglyone - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#418251) #
its not excessive Ohtani makes us odds on favorites for 2 years running and has a good chance of re-signing.
uglyone - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#418252) #
actually seems cheap tbh.
85bluejay - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#418253) #
What Ohtani is doing is so extraordinary, difficult and I suspect draining on the human body that I am weary about Ohtani staying healthy.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#418254) #
Also Zulueta may have passed Groshans and/or Orelvis on our top prospects list. Keith Law said he might already be a top-50 prospect. Tonight in AA he pitched 2 IP scoreless hitless with 4 Ks (2 BB).
uglyone - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#418255) #
24yr old AA RP? toss him in to the package.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#418256) #
If Iím Anaheim I ask for Moreno Tiedemann Zulueta Orelvis

Anyway, Ohtani should have signed with the Jays in the first place. He would have been in the postseason several times already (including this year).
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#418257) #
He could be a RP but scouts told Law he has 4 pitches and could end up a SP.

BA latest rankings had him as the Jays #5 prospect. ďThe Future: A strong good overall profile with starter traits but the high octane stuff for the bullpen. Zulueta has made up for lost time by climbing three levels over the first half of 2022. Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Curveball: 55. Changeup: 60. Control: 45.Ē
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#418258) #
Bob Nightengale says Yankees, Dodgers, Jays, Cards in on Castillo.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 28 2022 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#418259) #
Castillo, Happ, Robertson would be a fine deadline haul. Not sure how you get all those players while holding onto Moreno and Tiedemann, though.

Happ would be nice outfield insurance if Springer or another player gets injured.

Alternatively, Castillo plus a lesser-but-decent RP (and no Happ) would still be a pretty great outcome.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:22 AM EDT (#418261) #
Pass on Ohtani when Soto is available.
Jonny German - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#418262) #
I expect/hope the Jays are actively looking to move a catcher, probably Moreno, in a major deal.

- It may be that they canít get what they see as full value in trading a catcher now, but waiting until the offseason has the major opportunity cost of getting no benefit from the 3rd catcher this postseason.

- Bringing in a very good starter is also an upgrade to the bullpen and insurance for the rotation, as it allows Stripling to swing back to a relief role.

- There are no medium-size deals to be made on the position player side. Itís either a major deal to replace one of the 11 regulars, or a very small one to upgrade over Zimmer or Collins.

-Bringing in a controllable starter now really helps the 2023 outlook for the rotation. Waiting until the offseason will mean ponying up for more years than ideal for a free agent, or making a trade at a similar cost as right now.
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#418263) #
I had a couple of random thoughts about statistics.  #1- Matt Chapman and defence.

Matt Chapman grades out this year as an average defender according to DRS, UZR and Statcast's OAA.  Subjectively, I would think that he is at least somewhat above average and I wondered about the impact of the shift.  Chapman finds himself in all kinds of unusual positions as the Blue Jays shift an awful lot.  And the degree of difficulty of the plays he has to make is determined not only by the distance to travel and the time in which to travel, but also the angle of approach (throwing across the body while moving away from first base being harder than coming directly in or moving towards first base).  I wonder whether the ratings systems take this into account. 
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#418264) #
Random thought about statistics- #2- normalization for strength of opposition.

I wondered how Luis Castillo might fare in the AL East, and that had me wondering whether anyone has attempted to normalize statistics for strength of opposition.  So, for instance, if one wanted to compare Alek Manoah and (let's say) Corbin Burnes.  Manoah has an ERA+ of 176 and Burnes has an ERA+ of 177.  The ERA is normalized for the home park.  But Manoah's club faces the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles almost half the time, and Burnes' club faces the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates and Reds almost 1/2 the time.  Manoah in fact has made 3 starts against the Yankees, 3 against Boston, and 1 each against Baltimore and Tampa over his first 19 starts.  Burnes has made 2 against St. Louis, 3 against the Cubs, 2 against the Pirates and none against the Reds among his first 20 starts (and also none against the Dodgers- the primo offence in the NL).  It would be cool if there were a single stat that normalized for strength of opposition, both for pitchers and hitters (wRC++?).
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#418265) #
If Chapman shifts over to shortstop, I take it the batter is left-handed. Recently Chapman had a caught-stealing at 2nd base during a shift.

Shapiro mentioned on the radio that Toronto's current foul territory (to be reduced) was 2nd in size only to the Oakland Coliseum. I was surprised.

Q: Where is the [rain] tarp at Petco Park?

A: ďUnder the grandstands down the left-field line.Ē

I presume at least 9 teams have no rain tarp in foul territory. Safety netting seems to cut down a fair number of foul outs.

dalimon5 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#418266) #
Here is a rant, aimed at posters everywhere in general:

Of course defensive ratings do not account accurately. You canít accurately measure a large portion of what goes into defence. If Chapman tries his hardest to get to a ball faster for example, then his rating on that play goes up. If he makes the exact same play but dials it down because he knows he will make the play either way, then he is penalized by the metrics.

Shifts are also an issue.

The impact Chapman has on the rest of the infield, especially SS and 1B is also not accounted for.

I really donít understand how so many educated people on this board put so much weight into measurements. I am not against it or dismissing it entirely, but I am truly confounded by the over use of WAR and defensive metrics to inform many arguments. I also notice a lot of people focusing on smaller windows of sample sizes to make their arguments. Like, ďthis player has X WAR achieved in half a season or even a full season so that player is not worth their contract.Ē Seems egregious especially in instances where said player has years and years of performance saying otherwise. Even worse, comparing Player A vs Player B using 90 day samples and broken rating systems.

Reminds me of Miles Per Gallon claims where people leave out driver, road conditions, weight on car, type of gas, etc etc to try to have a simple measurement of what the cost of gas is for their vehicle. If Iím driving 1 vehicle with 5 people in it and youíre driving 3 vehicles with 3 people then what does lower MPG matter when itís not accurate?

Thereís just too many specific ways to generically ďjustifyĒ arguments these days.
lexomatic - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#418267) #
Random thought about statistics- #2- normalization for strength of opposition.
I think the closest is B-Rs run environment it's mostly stadium, but based on teams that play in it. So I guess it takes opposition into consideration vs league average?
scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#418268) #
Springer is the highest injury risk on the team.

Jansen/Kirk probably comes next.
Moreno can keep developing at AAA. Jansen spent a long time there.

Springer's bat is nice but it's probably his defense that the Jays will miss most.
Unless they put a defensive center out there. Then, they'll really miss his bat.

A DH who plays everyday is not a good fit for this team.
It's possible Springer becomes limited to DH. For a time anyway.
I think Tapia is better in center than in right.

Paul D - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#418269) #
I think you're going a bit too far Dalimon. I agree that we shouldn't take the defensive stats as gospel, but outs above average, for example, seems quite good (and not to me, who cares what I think but to analysts and industry folk). I question some of the positional adjustments on WAR, but I think it does a good job. I see two mistakes with it. First, as you mentioned, the small sample size issue. Secondly, thinking that in a given year a 2.5 WAR was superior to a 2 2.2 WAR.
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#418270) #
It's remarkable how many teams have Castillo as their "main target." The Reds should have a lot of good offers to choose from.
scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#418271) #
Performance is often the most important thing in life.
From the outcome of the war in Ukraine, to the impact of inflation on the average person's life.

We measure value by performance. Effort too, is measured by performance.

A lot of how I earn a living is related to measuring performance in network gear.

Often modeling is involved and some folks gets confused between the performance of the model and that of the actual thing.

What I don't dig is sales and marketing.
People buy a brand because it's a popular one even though the products always underperform.
Hence they make large profits and can afford to spend massively on marketing.

The trade discussions on Soto? That's pretty much all marketing.

And today's game is on Apple TV. More marketing and no game for me.
 

hypobole - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#418272) #
" If Chapman tries his hardest to get to a ball faster for example, then his rating on that play goes up. If he makes the exact same play but dials it down because he knows he will make the play either way, then he is penalized by the metrics."

Don't know of any metric that differentiates whether Chapman's throw beats the runner by one step or five. An out is an out.
whiterasta80 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#418273) #
Apparently the rumored price for Ohtani is "your top 4 prospects".

I'd pay that.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#418274) #
Hypobole,

Defensive ratings question aren't based on outs or fielding percentage. Those accurate models of ratings based on outs are now considered "outdated." Now we have special metrics that are based on Amazon Web Services and MLB Statscast which factor in range, time, speed and difficulty. None of this is subjective, it's all based on computer algorithms.

Just watch Apple TV tonight and you will see how ridiculous these types of measurements are.

I think this is all a large ploy designed to help launch the gambling industry into sports.
92-93 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#418276) #
People who watch a team play on a daily basis shouldn't need (or trust) WAR and defensive stats to tell them anything.

Judging by the price paid for Benintendi, the Jays would be much better off pursuing a guy like Syndergaard instead of spending top prospect capital on Castillo.
hypobole - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#418277) #
Defensive ratings question aren't based on outs or fielding percentage.

Apple+ stats are a different kettle of fish. When does anyone quote those stats?

OAA does base their stats on outs, just not the old fashioned way. It doesn't care if a speedy OF settles under a ball and waits for it to drop or whether some slug who had to go the same distance to make a diving catch on a ball identically hit. It only cares whether that fly ball was turned into an out.
uglyone - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#418278) #
Even professionals who watch every game would be wise to pay attention to the numbers, let alone us amateurs.
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#418279) #
People who watch a team play on a daily basis shouldn't need (or trust) WAR and defensive stats to tell them anything.

Branch Rickey saw his team play plenty, but still felt the need to employ the first statistician (Allan Roth) in, I believe, 1950.  One of Roth's early tasks was to measure defensive opportunities.  Old folks around here may remember Roth from Game of the Week broadcasts in the 60s and 70s.  

Rickey's teams seemed to do pretty well, and decades later, every team has an analytics department.  I suspect that many of them have developed defensive metrics that are more sophisticated than the publicly available ones and would help measuring the effect of shifting for a player like Chapman.  And we have seen many refinements particularly for catcher defence.

Rickey, of course, did not rely exclusively on statistics.  No one should. 
lexomatic - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#418283) #

Just watch Apple TV tonight and you will see how ridiculous these types of measurements are.

I think this is all a large ploy designed to help launch the gambling industry into sports.
dalimon, I posted a Fangraphs article analyzing the accuracy of the Apple + stats a while ago. They are not taken seriously. It's window dressing for an audience that doesn't know or care about baseball, but maybe cares about sports betting. But it won't help with that. So you're not inaccurate about them. But they are not the same as other stats, and that article (and comments) might help explain that to you or anyone that is immediately discounting it.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-good-are-those-probabilities-on-the-apple-tv-broadcasts/
I haven't listened to the podcast episode (link in reddit post) but here's some more info
 https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/uyanl0/effectively_wild_talks_to_the_ceo_of_the_company/https://www.legalsportsreport.com/70935/micro-betting-startup-nvenue-inaccurate-mlb-odds/


Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#418284) #
Speaking of normalization for quality of opposition, Ben Clemens at fangraphs said this about Shane McLanahan and Corbin Burnes in his rating of McLanahan (#20) for the 2022 trade value series:

" Youíd be crazy to trade a year of McClanahan for a year of Corbin Burnes, but five shots at McClanahan versus two goes of Burnes? Things arenít so clear. It feels strange to list such an unproven player at such a volatile position this highly, but thatís just how pitching works these days. And seriously, have you seen him pitch?"

McLanahan has put up a 206 ERA+ facing extremely tough competition.  He's 25 and he looks great.  He does not have a history of anything like this.  Burnes is 27 and is having his second straight season of about 175 ERA+ against weak competition.  Personally, I'd take McLanahan for 2023 rather than Burnes.  All questions about my sanity will be cheerfully answered.
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#418291) #
In The Athletic Bowden lists five realistic packages that could land Soto. Here is his proposed trade for the Jays:

"Soto, RHP Steve Cishek and LHP Patrick Corbin for C Gabriel Moreno, SS Orelvis Martinez, LHP Ricky Tiedemann, INF Miguel Hiraldo and cash considerations."

Also, he thinks Ohtani has similar trade value to Soto.
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#418294) #
"Soto, RHP Steve Cishek and LHP Patrick Corbin for C Gabriel Moreno, SS Orelvis Martinez, LHP Ricky Tiedemann, INF Miguel Hiraldo and cash considerations."

How much cash are the Nationals sending in unmarked bills?  Remove Tiedemann, and you have the basis for a possible deal.  Otherwise, I don't think so. 
dalimon5 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#418295) #
Lexomatic, I read the article you posted awhile ago, itís actually what got me thinking about the whole topic because I was confounded as all hell when I saw an Apple TV podcast.
scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#418296) #
Thinking of the Angels, I looked at what they just did in the draft.

They picked 13th, selecting Neto a ss who might move to 2B and who has a huge leg kick. (ranked 17 by mlb) They signed him underslot 3.5M vs 4.4M, which suggest they value quantity over quality.

They got no compensation or competitive picks. They also threw away their second rounder to sign Thor.

In the 3rd round they gave 1M to a reliever who throws 100+mph.

In the 4th, another pitcher who touches 98mph for basically another M.

5th, 1B for half of slot.
6th, RHP slot
7th, RHP for 25K.
8th, OF/LHP for 42K
9th, OF for 7.5K
10th, 1B for 7.5K
11th, here they blew all their money on a RHP. 1.5M which mlb ranked 119th. (55 fastball, 55 curve, 45 change, 45 control)

Apparently, they use almost the same structure, (underslot and big overpay at 11th) last year.

Looks pretty underwhelming. No?

Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#418297) #
No Springer, no Bichette in todays lineup.
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#418298) #
I'm not surprised that Springer is out; he seemed to be in a lot of pain at the end of last night's game and I would be shocked to see him in there tomorrow either.  Giving Bichette a day off and letting Biggio and Espinal play should be a regular occurrence, as giving Espinal a day off is also.

What is surprising to me is Collins as DH.  I guess you've got to give him some PAs every once in a while. 
Hodgie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#418299) #
Not surprised by Bichette's absence either, he appeared to be favouring his left shoulder/clavicle after the collision with Gurriel Jr.
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#418300) #
I didn't hear Shapiro's comments at the press conference, but according to Cathal Kelly in the Globe, he alluded to the fact that large scale stadium improvements in the US usually attract public financial support.  My mind wanders to the Active TO and Mayor Tory's support for the Blue Jays reservations about Lakeshore Blvd closures on fan commuting, the integrity commissioner's investigation of the conflict of interest complaint, and the upcoming municipal election.

The improvements are appealing, but public money for Rogers' investments in the stadium should be out of the question. 
scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#418301) #
Assuming Springer and Bichette are day to day.
Kirk is catching Manoah.
Jansen does 60% of the catching and does not DH.
He comes in if Kirk is pulled for a pinch runner.

So, it's either Zimmer in centre and Tapia at DH or--what we have today--Tapia in centre and Collins at DH.

Maybe if Springer is hitting first, Tapia would hit 9th, but with Biggio leading, Collins bats last.

I think the Jays' record for Apple/Google/Facebook games is pretty bad.

scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#418302) #
Also, Manoah is facing 7th left bats. That's some kind of record, no?
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#418303) #
Spoiler.....Moreno AND Groshans are in the Buffalo lineup tonight.
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#418304) #
What's with all the betting-related content in the media? Is there a genuine demand for this, or are companies trying to manufacture the demand? Maybe I'm a bit of a prude, but I think betting on sports is generally a bad idea. You're going to lose money and waste time in the long run, and it could wreck your life if you have a gambling problem. On some sites/stations, it's starting to seem like the betting line is more of a story than the game itself.
tercet - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#418305) #
In Ontario sports betting became legal 3 months ago and all the companies are just advertising to get new customers.
It is bit of a bubble though and I guess it will pop soon, just so many companies fighting for new customers, soon they will all realize spending so much on ads to get Joe Smoe to bet 5$ on the Blue Jays isn't really worth it.
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#418306) #
What I find interesting is that it's not just advertising (and we are definitely being bombarded by advertising from betting companies). The sports media, including Sportsnet, are also posting a lot of content aimed at the betting consumer. It's no longer about "who will win the Cy Young award this year?" but rather about Cy Young betting lines, potential ROI on various bets, etc.

This appears to be a significant societal change but I haven't heard much (if any) commentary on whether this is a good idea.
Hodgie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#418307) #
"Spoiler.....Moreno AND Groshans are in the Buffalo lineup tonight."

It was an obvious ploy by the Jays to force the Angels to make a decision on Ohtani. Those two sit creating immediate Soto speculation and that night reports start circulating that LAA has changed course and will now entertain trading Ohtani. Brilliant.

John Northey - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#418308) #
The trade proposal from Jim Bowden is interesting. If the Jays really are going for it in 2022-2024 then giving up C Gabriel Moreno, SS Orelvis Martinez, LHP Ricky Tiedemann and INF Miguel Hiraldo for Soto and eating some of Corbin's salary while also getting Steve Cishek to help the pen (10.2 K/9 vs 3.5 BB/9) is very tempting. Corbin could be useful in long relief backing up Kikuchi, and if Walker could work some magic he could be a decent choice for 5th starter in 2023/24 (he was a great pitcher at one time and is 32).

MLB Trade Values has it as an overpay for the Nats - the Jays group is worth 107.8 vs Nats 121.5

More interesting is a challenge trade - Bo & Moreno for Soto and Cishek (Cishek is a minor negative in value, but the pen needs all it can get). We'd see Espinal move to SS for the rest of the year with Biggio at 2B, jumping the defense. Bo is at 104 OPS+, Espinal 100, Biggio 105. That way Washington gets a marketable star back in the deal who might be more willing to sign long term. The Jays get that killer LH bat in the heart of the order. Moreno wouldn't affect the Jays this year and probably not next (Kirk & Jansen here for 2022/23/24) outside of health reasons but that would be a massive waste of talent to keep MLB's #1 prospect in AAA just as an injury backup. Losing Bo would hurt but short term Espinal/Biggio could cover middle infield (we won a WS with Manny Lee at SS for crying out loud), and we'd still have Orelvis Martinez in the minors working his way up along with Jordan Groshans. Tiedman would be working his way up too.

My proposal would be making the Jays resources far more efficient. Outside of figuring out what to do with Hernandez and Gurriel sharing LF/DH. I suspect Gurriel would lose the most playing time, but would backup 1B/DH as well as the OF. Tapia sadly would get more CF time (Soto has never played CF in the majors, and just 23 innings in the minors - Teoscar would probably get time in CF again...yikes...baring another trade of one of Hernandez/Gurriel for pitching). It'd be a scary trade to make, but I think it would work.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#418309) #
I'm not sure Springer makes that play, if only because he catches with the other hand.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#418310) #
At the stadium, Manoahís velocity is way down - 91.8 on the 4 seamer. Concerning
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#418311) #

It was an obvious ploy by the Jays to force the Angels to make a decision on Ohtani. Those two sit creating immediate Soto speculation and that night reports start circulating that LAA has changed course and will now entertain trading Ohtani. Brilliant.

So Addison Barger is not in the lineup tonight, how does that factor in?

lexomatic - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#418312) #
This appears to be a significant societal change but I haven't heard much (if any) commentary on whether this is a good idea.

I'm sure it's only of benefit to Ford and lobbyists and the various companies that stand to benefit. There's no societal benefit, and little to individuals. This definitely feels dictated top down nit demanded by the public and government/ business responding to demand.
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#418315) #
Will be interesting to see the ball/strike breakdown tonight. It seems Pena is getting a more generous zone than Manoah.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#418316) #
It seems Pena is getting a more generous zone than Manoah.

I don't see that so much as Garcia is getting what they call "eveners" - the free strike on a close pitch when you're behind 2-0 or 3-0. Manoah hasn't been falling behind nearly as much.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#418317) #
Lots of loud contact against Manoah tonight.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#418318) #
Not his night. Be a lot worse without some very sharp defense behind him.
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#418319) #
Not sure why Schneider left Manoah on the mound in the sixth, but whatís done is done. Hopefully no broken bones or elbow damage.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#418320) #
Manoah seems to be in a bit of a slump right now, relative to his early season performances.

Gausman also seems to be in a bit of a funk right now.

Kikuchi is hit and miss and Berrios is not a sure think either.

So, does that mean you really have to deal for a starter or does it make you more hesitant to go "all-in".
greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#418321) #
Good question. If the Jays can land a good controllable SP, heíll be available this year and next year, which would allow them to hedge their bets somewhat. On the other hand, if they have to give up some of their better pitching prospects (for example, Zulueta or Tiedemann) to make that move, then that could have an adverse affect on their pitching next year and beyond.
Petey Baseball - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#418322) #
All the Tigers relievers aren't this good, are they?
Mike Green - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#418323) #
Neither.  Lean on Stripling! 

It's true.  Neither Gausman nor Manoah has looked good for a few starts.  I think you have to assume that it's just temporary and that you still have a pretty decent chance of winning in 2022 and act accordingly.  Pitching is a need and getting a pitcher who will be with you in 2022 and 2023 would be of benefit. 
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#418326) #
All the Tigers relievers aren't this good, are they?

Yes they are. Jimenez is about the fifth best guy in the pen.
scottt - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#418327) #
I'm sure the high count of left bats doesn't help.

The solution is probably to top the pen with a couple of elite relievers who can go 2 innings and limit the starters to 5 innings or 2 times through the lineup--unless the Jays build a big lead early on.

Rays have lost.
Yankees are down by 2 in the 8th.
Red Sox are down by 1 in the 8th.

greenfrog - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#418328) #
Apple TV broadcasters say Manoah has an elbow contusion (no fracture). I guess weíll see how banged up he is in the coming days.
uglyone - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#418329) #
So maybe we should sell?
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#418330) #
Apple TV on my screen is two to three pitches behind gameday. I now am a clairvoyant to my family.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#418331) #
It looks like Luis Castillo is going to the Mariners.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#418332) #
Rosenthal says the Reds will get Noelvi Marte, Levi Stoudt, Edwin Arroyo, Dylan Moore
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#418333) #
Meanwhile the Detroit bullpen does a fine audition for Ross Atkins.
Kasi - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#418334) #
Yankees up six now. No idea who those Mariner prospects are so itís hard to compare.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#418335) #
Rosenthal corrects himself - Andrew Moore, not Dylan Moore. Supposed to be three of their top five prospects.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#418336) #
Thats the Mariners #1, #3 and #5 prospects per MLB pipeline.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#418337) #
For the Jays pipeline has Moreno, Tiedemann and Otto Lopez as the 1, 3, 5.

Marte was #18 on MLB's top 100, Orroyo 93.

Marte has been killing the C's recently.
Gerry - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#418338) #
Baseball America has the four players as the #1, #2, #10 and #26 in their mid season rankings.
Glevin - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#418339) #
Definitely a seller's market.
Magpie - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#418340) #
That's also a better fit for the Reds than a Toronto package - their best position player is a 25 year old catcher.
uglyone - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#418341) #
Too expensive for our poor blue jays. Too bad.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 29 2022 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#418342) #
I couldnít watch the game, what happened to Manoah? Did he get hit by a liner?
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#418343) #
Line drive by Schoop caught him on the right elbow.
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#418344) #
It wasnít a line drive, technically, it bounced right out front of home plate. It was hit at 93mph, hopefully slowed a bit off the ground. Looked smack on the elbow, though. Had to hurt like the dickens but hopefully no significant damage. Iíd guess his next start is moved a day or two but heís fine.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#418345) #
I really like this trade for the Mís, who now appear to have a very good rotation.

You canít compare Moreno, BAís top prospect, with the Mía prospects in the deal, who top out at #47 (Marte). Arroyo (#48), like Tiedemann (#34), is young and a fast riser, so nice get there for the Reds.

Although they are different players with different years of control, the Castillo trade reinforces my view that the Yankees got Benintendi cheaply. There is just no sting in the trade for New York.

The Angels and Nats must be seriously thinking about trading Ohtani and Soto if this trade sets a benchmark of sorts. If this is the return for a very good player, what will the return be for those superstars?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#418346) #
The trade is also a reminder of how good trade the Chapman trade was. Two full years of control of Chapman for Hoglund (who had TJ surgery and has no track record in the minors, although he could still be very good) plus three lesser prospects who have largely been disappointing.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#418347) #
Mark Feinsand said a dozen (!) teams made bids for Castillo. A source told him the Yankeesí bid was ďclose.Ē Phew.
scottt - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#418348) #
It's possibly the other way around. Here's one team that could really have used Soto and can't afford him anymore.
scottt - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#418349) #
Chapman's value was down because he hasn't hit in 3 years.
What is shocking is how much the Angels are paying Rendon; 4 more years at 38.6M + bonus for MVP in any playoffs series.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#418350) #
Chapman has been an above-average hitter every year of his career.

I think the Jays prefer to be opportunistic (the Teoscar and Chapman and Berrios trades, for example) rather than backing up the truck for a player who market value is sky-high (like Castillo). So far that approach has served them well.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#418351) #
* whose
jz6pwc - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#418352) #
I know Berrios has had his challenges this year but that trade still looks better in comparison.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:59 AM EDT (#418353) #
Castillo is so valuable because he has the potential to be a true difference-maker in a postseason series.

Remember when Law said that Zulueta and Groshans would be a fair offer for Castillo? The Mís blew that hypothetical offer out of the water.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#418354) #
Here's one team that could really have used Soto and can't afford him anymore.

Yep, the Mariners are taking the same approach that Milwaukee took into last year's post-season. Maybe we don't hit very much, but we can sure keep you guys from hitting.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#418355) #
I know Berrios has had his challenges this year

It's been a little strange. After all, the Blue Jays are 15-5 when Berrios is the starter. (They're 12-8 behind Manoah, 9-10 behind Gausman, 8-6 behind Stripling.) This is partially because baseball is just plain weird, and partially because of very timely run support. But it's mostly because when Berrios loses, he doesn't mess around. His five worst starts are worse than Kikuchi's five worst - in them Berrios has allowed 30 runs in just 14 IP, which works out to 0-3, 19.29.
scottt - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#418356) #
Pre-injury Chapman could be counted on for an .850 OPS.
Post-injury Capman has not managed better than .800 and was perfectly average last year.

That makes a huge difference in his value.
It's similar to Semien and the opposite of Judge this year.
Judge's next contract should be obscene.

Chapman is trending well right now, but it's too soon to predict where he'll end up.
I've been really pleased with what he brings to the team.

Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#418357) #
I am nervous about trading Ricky Tiedemann. Win now is very important. Yet, the farm system needs to deliver eventually. There seems to be plenty of good hitters among the prospects, but fewer pitchers.
bpoz - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#418358) #
I find that when SPs are being discussed by the Media or Bauxites I find that the opinions expressed are consistently inconsistent in many cases. As a result I feel that these opinions are not worth respecting. I do respect all Bauxites but the media IMO are playing the readers. Sorry if I insulted anyone.

A writer has written that "Mariners have dealt for Reds "Ace" L Castillo". He is definitely the Reds best pitcher so "their" ace. This year era 2.86 other years over 3. Half a season is not enough to categorize him an Ace IMO. But this year he would qualify as Ace but generally over his career #1/2 so very good.

For SPs I define Ace ERA under 3, #1 era 3-3.5, #2 era 3.5-4, #3 era 4-4.5, #4 era 4.5- 5, #5 era 5+. I assigned these numbers, so they are subjective.

Scherzer & deGrom qualify as Aces. Verlander should be considered an Ace but the data compared to my above standards put him as Ace/#1. Ace is fine to me because I know how good he is.

#4 era 4.5-5 and #5 era 5+ is not really a good pitcher to me. But about 8 SPs are needed to get through a season.

My categories put Ryu as Ace 3X, #2 3X, #3 & #5 once each. So a good pitcher that got a nice contract. In his 7 ML seasons R Stripling 122IP era 3.02 swingman in 2018 & 2022 78IP era 3.10 swingman on his way to 100+IP. So pitching like a #1. FA next year. What contract will he get?

Long post but 2015 needs to be considered. Estrade, Price & Aron Sanchez #1s 74IP - 181IP. Dickey & Buehrle #2s and with 27IP Stroman was an Ace.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#418359) #
" Judge's next contract should be obscene."

I was thinking that today when watching the highlights of him hitting two home runs, one a grand slam, to reach 41 on the season plus he took a home run away by making a big catch at the fence. I can see the Met's owner smiling to himself as he contemplates stealing the best player away from his crosstown rival. Wouldn't that be an interesting scenario?


I can't see Atkins/Shapiro trading a boatload of top prospects for a few years of Soto. It would seem to go against their sustained success mantra. I do believe they'll make a few trades and some good prospects will get dealt.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#418360) #
I have to agree. Probably an RP or two and maybe a mid- or back-end SP. Maybe also an complementary outfielder.

I think they want to keep the window open for as long as possible. They have a pretty good farm system (especially after the recent IFA and Rule 4 draft additions) so maybe they can pull it off.

Or maybe they acquire Soto and Corbin and itís pedal to the metal.
hypobole - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#418361) #
I will bet cuttlefish if Soto is traded by Tuesday, Corbin will not be included.
hypobole - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#418362) #
Yep, the Mariners are taking the same approach that Milwaukee took into last year's post-season.

Mariners offence top 10 at 106 wRC+. Brewers last year were bottom 10 at 91 wRC+.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#418363) #
Mariners are 11th in the league at actually scoring runs.
Gerry - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#418364) #
Trent Thornton added, Max Castillo optioned.
hypobole - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#418365) #
Weird. Last year the Brewers were 6th in NL runs scored, but 11th in OPS+. This year Mariners are 11th in AL runs scored, but 5th in OPS+.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#418366) #
The Mariners' 5th starter by ERA is Robbie Ray, but other metrics (xERA and xFIP) suggest that he's been unlucky while the other starters have been lucky.   Last year, Ray was lucky; it you take his performance since the beginning of last year, you've got a pretty good estimator of where he's at. An ERA of  3.3 and an xERA of 3.5 and an xFIP of 3.44 tells a relatively consistent story.  Gilbert, Castillo and Ray are a good top 3 for the playoffs.

Seattle's offensive issues seem to be easily dealt with.  They definitely can use the DH spot more effectively and could use a corner outfielder/DH.  Adam Frazier hasn't hit this year, but overall they have received good production down the middle of the diamond with Raleigh, Crawford, Frazier and Rodriguez. 
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#418367) #
Milwaukee's home park (the hideously named American Family Field) played as a slight hitter's park last year while T-Mobile park plays as a pitcher's park.  That explains part of the discrepancy between OPS+ and runs scored.  The rest is probably explained by hit-bunching or lack thereof. 
bpoz - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#418368) #
Haha hypobole!! Wink!! Numbers don't lie but can be weird.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#418369) #
<br>The trade is also a reminder of how good trade the Chapman trade was. Two full years of control of Chapman

I checked June 1 to now Jays stats and was surprised to see Chapman leading the team in fWAR, just above a fave cathcher/DH. Anyway,he's been awesome for 2 months, curious to see how he winds up.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#418370) #
Aside from Lopez or Montas I donít see anyone else on the trade market worth trading too prospects for. Iíd much rather the front office follow the AA mantra of overpaying to geta great player instead of trading fair value for a good player. So my vote is to go get Soto for the moon and if you canít do that then just do a Cashman type deal where you bring in strict rentals for lower ranked prospects.

Maybe, maybe there is a middle ground where you give up a lower ranked ďtop prospectĒ like Martinez for 2 more than of Frankie Montas.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#418371) #
* top

* get a

* months not more

The rigours of using an iPhone mini pool side.
jerjapan - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#418372) #
Yeah, that deal for Chapman looks better and better.  he was a great buy-low and with the bat rebounding, he could be close to the player he was.  and he's great fun to watch.  all for roster detritus.  well, and gunnar hoglund. 
bpoz - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#418373) #
We have scored the 2nd most runs in the AL. We are at the top of the 8 teams in the 2nd tier. This team is ok. We have Moreno for offensive depth. We need pitching depth which is 2 good/reliable relievers.
Glevin - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#418376) #
Rockies are so strange. They're one of the worst teams in baseball and are extending their 37 YO reliever instead of trading him in a great seller's market. They held on to Story and Grey last year and got nothing for them. Just bizzare.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#418377) #
Trent Thornton added, Max Castillo optioned.

Presumably, they'd rather have him starting in the minors than working junk relief in the Show. This is Kikuchi's doing! One decent game...
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#418378) #
Springer looks rough.  When he's DHing while unhealthy, he's not doing the team any favours- as a healthy Kirk is on the bench. 
Nigel - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#418379) #
Iíd rather him be in the big league pen as the long man than have Thornton up. Castillo has been pretty good and looks to have the stuff to be a several inning reliever.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#418380) #
Kirk is not a fit in this team while Vlad, Springer and Jansen are here.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#418381) #
Back when Drew was a young Jay, I said something to the effect that he "couldn't hold a baserunner if you gave him a lasso." Some things never change, do they!
Nigel - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#418382) #
A top 3 C in baseball isnít a fit? Thatís a management problem not a personnel problem.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#418383) #
Kirk's a top 3 catcher in the league and neck and neck with Vlad Jr. as the best hitter on the club.  Of course, he's a fit. 
Nigel - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#418384) #
Oof that was an awful route by Gurriel:(.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#418385) #
Thatís a management problem not a personnel problem.

It's only a management problem if management believes a top three catcher is a poor fit. There are always real problems that should have their attention instead.
John Northey - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#418386) #
The Rockies are a good reminder of what cheering on a team with a bad GM is like. In their history the Rockies have won 3 playoff games outside of 2007 when they made it to the WS and were swept (after sweeping rounds 1 and 2 for 7 wins). Thus all time the Rockies have 10 playoff wins. In 2015/16 the Jays won 10 playoff games total (made it to the ALCS both years). Add in 85/89/91/92/93/2020 and you get 3/1/1/8/8/0 wins = 21 wins and 2 titles.

As to what the Jays should do now - tinkering is probably best. Depends on if another team overvalues our prospects vs what the team thinks. Last year the Twins (and most of MLB) saw a lot more in Austin Martin than the Jays did at mid-season (still hitting just 249/378/313 in 63 games in AA) - he has dropped out of BA's top 100 and is now no better than the 5th best prospect in the Twins system. MLB.com still has him as the Twins #2 with Simeon Woods Richardson as #4 for them - but not in the MLB top 100.

Right now I'd think Jordan Groshans is the most likely to be overvalued (still on MLB's top 100 despite a AAA 251/347/299 line at age 22) but I suspect most teams will figure that out before trading for him. Orelvis Martinez is more likely to be overvalued due to his raw power (24 HR in AA at age 20 in 82 games sure stands out) but as others have pointed out his K's are scary high 97 K's in 338 PA which leads to his 213 BA. I see him as the most likely big piece in a deal, although I'd hate to trade that power at that age unless getting something 'wow' in return. Same with Moreno who between AAA/majors has a net 302/358/382 line at 22 which is nice but not what I'd expect from the top prospect in the minors. If combined they get Soto or Ohtani then great, but otherwise I'd keep them. Ohtani would fill the rotation and LH power nicely but would cost Kirk playing time but of course with Kirk the Jays could give Ohtani a day off after he pitches (this year the game after he pitches he has hit just 169/258/373 for a 630 OPS. Not so good vs his 826 overall but the Angels can't afford to sit him while the Jays could.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#418387) #
Lourdes tiptoeing back to try to make that play on Candelario's drive had me in mind of Tiny Tim. 
scottt - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#418388) #
What's a strict rental? 2 month?
Nigel - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:35 PM EDT (#418389) #
Sorry - I should have been more clear - by management I meant management of personnel than the personnel itself. There are absolutely ways to get all of Vladdy, Springer, Kirk and Jansen enough ABs. It does require a few more days with both Cs in the lineup than was the case earlier this year.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#418390) #
On - let's not's say "defense," that was just bad - Gurriel's part, the ball hit right at you but over your head really is hard to read. But when Tapia looks better in the field, one is alarmed.

The Rockies are building around a 37 year old reliever. It's a new strategy, never been tried. An unexploited inefficiency.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#418391) #
Speaking of tinkering, nice move by LAD today acquiring Chris Martin from the Cubs.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#418392) #
Tampa Bay lands the LH bat and expiring contract of David Peralta.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#418393) #
If Stripling keeps this up, heís going to receive a nice contract this off-season. Heís the Ben Zobrist of MLB pitchers. Start a game every five days? Be the sixth man in the rotation? Go multiple innings out of the bullpen? Close the occasional game? Heís got this.
John Northey - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#418394) #
Appears to only cost the Rays Christian Cerda (minor league catcher - 19 in rookie ball hitting 315/464/519). Peralta has a 119 OPS+ this year in LF. Not bad. Cerda isn't in their top 30 prospects but I could see him climbing lists quickly if that bat is for real.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#418395) #
Springer's pain affects his running.  I can't imagine him in centerfield.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#418396) #
Springer should go on the IL and rest. Sorry, but he doesn't look capable of playing right now.
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#418397) #
I know the Tigers have a poor offense. But Stripling has been solid. Interestingly, all 3 hits thru 4 have come off his change, usually his best pitch. That little 4 seam cutter has been effective. And Vlad has looked downright nimble today. Stole a base, scored on the hit. That play to end the top of the 4th he showed some quickness. Nimble!
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#418398) #
BBRef tells us that Bichette bunted once in 2019, and he did get a hit out of it.  Can't say I remember it either...
lexomatic - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#418399) #
Well that was a highly suspect review leading to bases loaded 0 out.
I didn't see much attempt to avoid and heard a pretty loud sound. Conclusive video showing the hand protector got hit first? Hard to imagine it.
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#418400) #
I jinxed Stripling pretty solidly. Didnít get an out after my comment. My apologies.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#418401) #
Hey, he got the sac fly. It's an out!
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#418402) #
My point is that Kirk is not a good fit if you plan on playing Jansen for better pitching, batting Vlad every day and Springer every day. Every time Kirk plays then one of them is gonna be sitting. Management has not sat Teoscar and wonít sit Gurriel while heís the best contact hitter.

Whatís the point of keeping Kirk if you donít plan on playing him every day?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#418404) #
I donít how the review umps determined that the batter was hit.

It feels like this Jays team needs something to take it to the next level (the championship level). Iím not sure what that is.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#418405) #
Whatís the point of keeping Kirk if you donít plan on playing him every day?

Since Jansen came off the IL on July 12, Kirk has started 11 of 13 games. Jansen has started 8. It's not that difficult. Catchers don't play every day, and this team doesn't have a designated DH.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#418406) #
My original point was merely that Springer being a gamer isn't helping the club.  He's hurt quite significantly and it affects his ability to hit, run and throw. 
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#418407) #
Magpie,

Thatís with Springer in the OF. Now that heís injured but able to play there is no room for Kirk unless he catches which is worse for the pitchers overall.

Springer probably gets to make the call himself. If Springer keeps DHing then I doubt Lork plays more than 50% of the time which is terrible for an all star. Once again, not enough room for all those guys since Vlad needs days off the field and Springer is older.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#418408) #
Iím sending this team is not close. They are 2nd in offense based on a pummelling of the Red Sox with some very generous scoring decisions from the scorekeeper.

They were dominated by Wainwright and donít look to impressive against the lowly Tigers.

Iíd say if they had Soto and Soto theyíd be in the conversation.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#418409) #
*sensing
Dr. Zarco - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#418410) #
Oh no. I hope that hit the pad
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#418411) #
That looked really bad.
uglyone - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#418412) #
better take advantage of this break.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#418413) #
Moment of truth for the slumping Bo.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#418414) #
They were dominated by Wainwright

Not the first, won't be the last. That's a club with many members.
uglyone - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#418415) #
They're trying to hand us this one. Will we take it?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#418416) #
The Jays fought the Law, and the Jays won.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#418417) #
Derek Law, embedded Blue Jay.
Nigel - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#418418) #
Hinch - embedded Blue Jay.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#418419) #
I suspect that there are discussions with the Tigers about their relievers. There may be deadline-related reasons for the choice of Derek Law. 

I would be happier if Richards wasn't on the mound now.
Kelekin - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#418420) #
Hinch is many things, but I highly doubt he puts Derek Law out there without having been told before the game by the FO to only put certain relievers in if he has to. They're fielding offers left and right this weekend, so why risk it when you're not competing this year?
Kelekin - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#418421) #
Great minds, Mike.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#418422) #
And Schneider removed Richards once the tying run came to the plate.  Good for the blood pressure.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#418423) #
Question for Schneiderís postgame: ďWhy isnít Springer on the IL?Ē
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#418424) #
Soto to Cards rumours swirlingÖ
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#418425) #
Itís worth noting that some good, smart organizations (NYY, TB) seem to be concluding that the asking price for Soto is too high, and that it makes more sense for them to tack in a different direction.

Also, it sounds as if Ohtani probably isnít getting moved at this time.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#418426) #
Today's winning pitcher now has an ERA of 5.49, while the loser is t 0.00 because baseball is cute.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#418427) #
They are 2nd in offense based on a pummelling of the Red Sox with some very generous scoring decisions from the scorekeeper.

What does the scorekeeper have to do with anything? They're second in offense because they've scored the second most runs.

Luis Castillo vs the Yankees at the Stadium, Monday or Tuesday. If only they could both lose...
Glevin - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#418428) #
Cardinals make sense because of how much young talent they have that's also pretty replaceable internally. Walker and then 2 of Gorman, Liberatore, and Carlson and then a couple more good prospects would be decent return.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#418429) #
Well itís simple Mags, the Red Sox made silly silly and clear errors which extended the inning multiple times. I believe almost each of these were scored as hits and RBI rather than errors. If you score them errors as they should have been then the Jays lose double digit runs in their run differential.

Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#418430) #
They would still be second in runs scored if they'd won that game 6-5 instead of 28-5.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#418431) #
And run differential is simply the difference between runs scored and runs allowed. No one cares whether they're earned or unearned.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#418432) #
I imagine that part of the problem for the Jays is that, other than Moreno, they donít have any high-value prospects that theyíre willing to trade (because they intend to keep Tiedemann). The team is willing to trade Moreno and lesser prospects, but that isnít enough to land a really good, controllable player (like Soto) and itís too much to give up for a player like Montas.

For me, the ideal trade would still be Moreno for Carroll. High-value prospect on the cusp of the majors at a position of surplus, for a high-value prospect on the cusp of the majors at a position of great need (center field). Watching Springer limp around the field only strengthens my opinion on this point.

I would even be willing to significantly sweeten the deal to make it happen, perhaps adding a couple more good prospects (even Orelvis) to the Jays package, even if this made the deal somewhat ďlopsidedĒ on its face.

Then I would add a decent bullpen arm or two, and a back-end starting pitcher.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#418433) #
Heyman says both the Red Sox and Giants are now listeningh to offers "on their veterans." Can't imagine Boston wants to deal within the division but the Giants have a few starting pitchers worth consideration.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#418434) #
Alright Magpie, Iíll concede on this. You are right, all good thanks for clarifying.
Magpie - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#418435) #
Hey, Red Sox screwups were directly responsible for at least 15 runs that night. That's a lot!

It is possible as well that Jays batters have been getting a break from the official scorers. They've only got 22 Reached on Error this season, which is a little low for a team chock full of RH batters (who are the most likely to reach on an error.) Orioles batters lead the league, with 36 ROE.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#418436) #
Boston lost today. Theyíre 50-52. A selloff seems likely.
John Northey - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#418437) #
Wonder what the Giants want for Mike Yastrzemski? At 31 and 3 more years away from free agency he will never be expensive. His OPS+ is 102 this year vs 118 lifetime while splitting time between CF/RF and batting left. His defensive WAR has been positive every season and he had very good 2019-20 seasons (136 OPS+ over 161 games 636 PA 5.3 bWAR). He'd be a very solid backup for Springer and would be an upgrade on Tapia (who has never been good on defense). Just a thought.

More likely/interesting is Alex Cobb - signed last winter to a 2+ option deal he makes $9 mil this year and next, then $10 mil option in 2024 with a $2 mil buyout. His ERA+ is 101 this year, but FIP is 2.91 after a 2.92 FIP last year (suggesting he has bad luck on balls in play). 82 IP over 16 starts (avg of just over 5 IP per start) so a solid #4/5 guy who'd be here for 2023 while Ryu is gone and Stripling likely gone. His lifetime FIP is almost dead on his ERA (3.87 vs 3.88) so I suspect it is just a fluke to be as far apart as it is. Given the Giants are looking to build up he might be available. For an ace though you'd go after Carlos Rodůn who leads the NL in FIP at 2.41 vs his 128 ERA+. Signed last winter again for 2 years $21.5 this, $22.5 next but can opt out (needed 110 IP and is at 116). Jakob Junis is a risky one - 137 ERA+ but 97 lifetime (IE: could fall back to earth easily), free agent after 2023 so a guy the Giants will try to sell high on I suspect. The only flamethrower in their pen (10+ K/9) is their closer 24 year old Camilo Doval (just 1+ years experience) - ain't no way he is traded. A few interesting pen guys but none who fit what the Jays are after (high K guy).
John Northey - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#418439) #
While the Jays are doing well, but not perfect vs the lousy teams (Detroit, St Louis missing their top 2 players) they still are doing great and are now 2 up on Tampa and Seattle for the top wild card (depending on how Seattle does tonight - winning 3-2 vs Houston) and 4 1/2 up on Baltimore (???) and Cleveland (closest to the wild card without being in it). Baltimore is playing Cincinnati right now (Reds up 8-2 in the 9th). This is the fun time. Trades to upgrade now, planning on the Jays likely making the playoffs. FanGraphs had the Jays at 96.8% odds before today's win so that is very fun. July 11th was the low point at 79.2% odds. 98.0% on June 13th is the high.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#418440) #
Rodon could have a big impact on the 2022 postseason if the Giants make him available.
dalimon5 - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#418441) #
Yeah Rodon could be a huge get.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#418442) #
Zulueta, Groshans and another prospect for Rodon?
bpoz - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#418443) #
Unlikely the Jays get Soto or Othani IMO.
hypobole - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#418444) #
How good a prospect is Groshans at this point in time? Yeah, he's 22 in AAA, but he's running an 85 wRC+ and his .047 ISO is dead last of the 89 qualified batters in the iL.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 30 2022 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#418445) #
Keith Law thought that players like Groshans and Orelvis could still have some value to an organization like LAD that is good at turning around talented but struggling position players (he thought the Jays do a ďnice jobĒ at developing position players but that some other orgs are especially good at this).

But point taken. Groshans canít have a lot of value at this point. This highlights the problem I mentioned earlier ó the lack of high-value prospects below Moreno and Tiedemann (and maybe Zulueta) that can be used as trade chips. The Jays have excellent prospects at the very top of their farm system, and they seem to have good depth, but they currently donít have that strong/desirable second tier of prospects (Gunnar Hoglund was in that category, as was Austin Martin when he was traded).
John Northey - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#418447) #
Oh, I agree 100% that the odds are low for the Jays to get Soto or Othani. Looks like Soto is either SD or St Louis bound which is fine by me - if the Jays can't get him I want him in the NL as far away as possible. Othani is more a fun thought exercise - the Jays rotate DH but Othani is a full-time DH/pitcher so outside of the day after a start (when he clearly drops from Vlad level to below average) what do you do with Kirk/Springer/Vlad who are sharing DH now? A nice problem, but a problem none-the-less which reduces Ohtani's value to the Jays from otherworldly to 'wow'.

Right now I'd be tempted to just tinker with getting some relief help and maybe a decent #3-5 guy who can eat innings at a 90-100 ERA+ level. In the offseason do a killer challenge trade with Arizona - Moreno for Carroll. Then do something with one of the other OF'ers on the team to get more pitching help. BA has Moreno #1, Carroll #4. MLB Moreno #5, Carroll #2. No matter how you cut it they are viewed similarly by prospect watchers - yet the Jays have an overabundance at catcher and a shortage in CF, while Arizona has a 22 year old CF (Alek Thomas) and 3 sub 85 OPS+ catchers and their top catching prospect is 15th on their list (22 in A+). This just makes too much sense for both teams - take a strength and use it to fix a weakness.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 07:48 AM EDT (#418448) #
If you were Arizona's GM, would you do that trade? It would be tough to pull the trigger for several reasons. First, Carroll has arguably outperformed Moreno in the minors this year (wRC+ of 166/142 across two levels, versus Moreno's 115). Second, Moreno has a significant thumb fracture last year. Third, Moreno was just OK in his cup of coffee this year (wRC+ of 66). Fourth, catchers are risky, as they are prone to injuries and their offensive output can decline due to the rigours of the position. Fifth, the future in Arizona (at least for the next few years) currently looks like Carroll in CF and Thomas in a corner OF position, so they don't necessarily have significant redundancy in center.

I suggested a possible Moreno-for-Carroll trade back in April. Since then, Arizona has drafted an elite center fielder in Druw Jones. This arguably might make them a bit more open to trading Carroll. The problem is that Jones is only 18 and is a long way from the majors, and he just suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. My sense is that Arizona is super-excited about Carroll and that it would take an awful lot to pry him away. Hence my suggestion of adding a couple of prospects to the trade offer -- make it extremely tempting to Arizona by potentially solving multiple problems for them (not just catcher).
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#418449) #
I think an MLB team will take the better performing CF over the catcher almost every time.

I could see a trade like this being more realistic:

Moreno and Martinez for Ketel Marte or Gallen

Moreno for Thomas and BP help
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#418450) #
Jays focus is on Quintana of the Pirates, per Nightengale. Jays very quiet in the rumoured trades.
bpoz - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#418451) #
I just checked the Mariners rotation. L Castillo makes 6 good arms. Logan Gilbert era 2.78 and L Castillo era 2.86 are Aces this year. C Flexen, G Kirby and M Gonzales era 3.50- 3.73 are solid #2s. R Ray era 4.11 is a Cy Young winner.

I don't know how many they can keep and for how long and they have a few prospects getting close as well.

Very impressive current SP depth.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#418452) #
Raimel Tapia gets the start in CF today with Kirk DHing and Jansen behind the plate. I wonder if the club will put Springer on the IL- 10 days to heal seems like a good investment.
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#418453) #
Moreno is excellent defensively and has done so well in his cup of coffee that he's risen to #1 overall prospect.

Right now, the offense is good enough, even though it's unconventional.
Pitching is the obvious area of improvement.

If I was Atkins, I'd be looking for relievers who are free agents this fall and who won't be getting a QO.
There are a lot of middling prospects who can be traded in such a scenario.
Maybe Groshans could go for an elite reliever, but that's pretty borderline.

In the winter, they have to replace Stripling/Ryu and Phelps.
Everybody else is returning.
Nobody had a great year so the arb increases won't hurt that much.

Replacing Tapia/Zimmer with a single player doesn't do much because that merely frees a bench spot for a position player. There are more departures in 2024 and the objective should be to use a platoon at one position.

Manoah was not great last time and facing all those left bats was part of it.
This year, lefties have hit Berrios to an .881 OPS while right bats have only hit .741.

dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#418454) #
Nightengale seems to suggest that the Mariners could flip someone like Gilbert in a package for Soto.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#418455) #
"the offense is good enough, even though it's unconventional"

It's certainly unconventional to play a key positional player (Springer) in July when he's badly injured and can barely hit, field or run.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#418456) #
Seattle took on Eugenio Suarez's contract (which isn't terrible) mostly to get Jesse Winker potent LHB - so far this year, Suarez has outproduced Winker significantly - Baseball!
Hodgie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#418457) #
Nightengale needs some sleep if he thinks the Mariners have any chance at Soto after they just overpaid for Castillo. Unless Julio is in that package with Kirby itís not going to happen.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#418458) #
You know their GM is Jerry Dipoto...right?

A package built around Kelenic, Gilbert and Brash is more than enough. He also has Emerson Hancock, Harry Ford and George Kirby to deal from.

He has enough to make a trade commensurate with the Cardinals or Padres offers if he really wants to deplete his system.
Hodgie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#418460) #
And you know DiPoto isnít trading with himself? Kelenic is almost the same age as Soto and hasnít been able to stick with the big club and Brash is a 24 year old erstwhile starting pitcher that canít find the strike zone with a map and whose future likely lies in the pen. Gilbert does at least have a nice fastball and control, if no strong secondary pitches to speak of.
bpoz - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#418461) #
We are on pace to win about 90 games. Hoping for 94+ wins.

When comparing player performance we often use that player's yearly comparisons. Ray had a much better 2021 than he is having this year. I think using 2 periods per year may give valuable information. Pre AS & post AS for each year would give data for 4 time periods.

I would look at the playing time in each of the 4 sections. I think D Jansen playing more post AS this year would reveal much. R Tapia is another player especially since last year he was with Colorado. Video of his defense in each section may reveal improvements.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#418463) #
Biggio leading off? I love it.
hypobole - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#418464) #
Jays now at 82 GIDP's, giving them sole possession of 4th place. Random fact - the 6 other teams that have grounded into more than 77 are all National League.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#418465) #
Chapman is turning in quite a season. After failing to acquire Ramirez, the Jays executed a pretty good Plan B. I remember when a few people were lobbying for the Jays to trade for Donaldson (hitting .220/.300/.378 this season in 330 PA); that would have ended badly for more than one reason.
Chuck - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#418466) #
A DP, the price of Bichette not hustling the play before.
Nigel - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#418467) #
Bichette really needs to be taken to task for his lack of effort on the base paths. Iím not a fan of fake hustle but that play screamed problems and Bichette should have run harder there.
Paul D - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#418468) #
Donaldson is having a surprisingly good year if you believe the defensive numbers (which you may not)
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#418469) #
Buck making the case for adding a starting pitching and it's hard to argue. Stripling is going back to the bullpen at some point, remember.

If the Jays ended up with Montas/Rodon, Fullmer/Jimenez, and Happ/Peterson, with Stripling headed back to the pen, you'd have to be pleased.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#418470) #
Berrios is feeling it. Good to see.

As for Montas, Morosi says the Aís are focused on three potential trade partners: NYY, Tor, St. Louis.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 01:57 PM EDT (#418471) #
Bo is having an odd 2022 season. Coming in it seems like he had two things to improve: His infield defense and proclivity to chase bad pitches.


You see the fruits of the extra work he's put in a shortstop...the eye test tells me he really has improved there.
At the plate, again the eye test says he's chasing less, but obviously the base hits and power hasn't been there.

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#418472) #
Just dont get why our SP get yanked when cruising on 80 pitches.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#418473) #
According to the broadcast crew itís because there will be ďimportant inningsĒ later in the season.
lexomatic - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#418474) #
Chapman is ridiculously hot the last 2 weeks. 6 HR 15RBI .450 AVG in last 12 games... and 1.3 WAR. 2nd in MLB in fWAR to Judge (2.0 11 HR in 13 GP)
* not super accurate becomes i'm cherry picking stats for Chapman including today but not others
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#418475) #
I hope the Cardinals blow their prospects on Soto and the Yankees hold onto their top prospects in Peraza and Volpe. I donít think those two guys are as good as advertised. They look to me in the same vein as Groshans. His power has dipped this year but his strikeouts are down and heís walking more. He still hit .290+ at AA at 21. I think his stats in the minors will even out with theirs when it comes to hitting.

Iíd much rather the Yankees have their two prospects that Montas or Rodon.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#418476) #
2:19? That's old school.
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#418477) #
Off day tomorrow. The lineup was filled with left bats and switch hitters. Perfect time to give Mayza an inning.

This is what a playoff game would be like.
You want to give some work to your key pen guys.
The starter can go and throw an extra twenty pitches in the pen if he wants to. 

It's nice that people complain without naming the manager.

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#418478) #
The bullpen has been overworked because of these SP that everyone says we need a huge upgrade on and now we have to find work for them?
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#418479) #
It's never hard to argue with Buck.

Stripling has been good in the rotation and bad in the pen.
Buck said they need depth, but you cannot trade for depth.
Castillo was sent down to pitch in AAA so he can start if needed, that is depth.
In September, they'll be able to recall a pitcher. That's another guy you cannot trade for.

It's the Thornton/Banda spots that needs to be upgraded.
It don't want to see Richards in close games, but he can go 2 innings and can probably be good on 2+ days of rest.
So Richards and a AAA guy can handle the long relief in September. No need for Stripling.

John Northey - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#418480) #
Fun game again. Winning is almost always fun (as long as no one is injured). Rumors are going to go nuts between now and the next game on Tuesday which happens after the deadline. I'd love for a Tigers reliever to walk across the field now and join the Jays for that trip - Alex Lange may be wild (19 walks in 40 IP) but he can K guys nicely (exactly what the Jays want - 52 K's so far) and has years of control left (not a free agent until after 2027). Joe Jimenez would be sweet too (under team control through 2023) with 55 K's in 39 IP and just 8 walks - he'd be ideal. Wonder if a 2 guys for prospects deal can be made?

No question the big guy is Frankie Montas though - Oakland's big guy who has 1+ years of control left. 117 ERA+ 5 1/2 IP per start plus some playoff experience (2 games, 5 2/3 IP 6 R/ER 1 BB 5 SO). Add him to the rotation and you could put Stripling back in the pen as a backup on Kikuchi starts.

So get Montas, get a reliever and then Thornton and Banda can go back to AAA. The pen becomes Romano/Cimber/Garcia/Mayza/Phelps/Richards/Stripling/new guy and the rotation is Manoah/Gausman/Berrios/Kikuchi/new guy (Montas).

The problem is the cost would be high. Last year to get Berrios it was 2 top 50 prospects. I suspect it would cost Orelvis Martinez or Gabriel Moreno plus to get Montas. Both would scare the crap out of me to trade. Ricky Tiedemann plus more might do it, but again he is scary to trade although pitchers doing well in A/A+ who flop are common, he seems like a guy who might make it.

Other starter options are Ohtani (super expensive), Syndergaard (a lot cheaper, but just under contract for 2022 and not doing as well as before with just 7.2 K/9), for a surprise but cheap I'd look at Madison Bumgarner - playoff legend but owed $37 mil over the next 2 years and was sub 90 ERA+ the past 2 years but has a 105 ERA+ this year so might be on a dead cat bounce, but also might be just what is needed in that 4th slot at a reasonable price. Hmm.... wonder if Arizona would be interested in a Moreno for Carroll and Bumgarner deal? Risky but covers today (Bumgarner) and tomorrow (Carroll in CF) while using a part that is valuable but has nowhere to play here (Moreno) who covers a weakness in Arizona (their catchers are poor and no real prospects).
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#418481) #
It's pretty simple. You need someone to cover the blow outs so the rest of the pen is not affected.
You also give the top guys in the pen enough work to stay sharp.

Right now, the Jays have off days. So the starters can have an extra day and be out after 7 innings even if they have the stamina to throw a complete game. It's different in a 13 day stretch without breaks.

Mariners went all in for Castillo and then placed Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Moore on the IL.
Plus Ty France is day to day.  Do they keep trading or stop there?

greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#418482) #
Montas does have a nontrivial chance of turning out to be a disaster (shoulder injury and past PED use raising some red flags). But heís very good when healthy.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#418483) #
Stripling has been good in the rotation and bad in the pen.

He has a 3.51 ERA in 164 relief IP, and a 3.98 ERA in 456.1 IP as a starter. There are some small differences. He doesn't walk nearly as many people when he's starting, but he gives up a few more hits and quite a few more home runs.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#418484) #
dont get why our SP get yanked when cruising on 80 pitches.

It's obviously a little soon to come to any conclusions, but the early signs suggest that Schneider has a quicker hook with his starters than Montoyo did.

Also, like every modern manager, he follows the trail blazed by Dick Howser and Cito Gaston back in the day - he much, much, much prefers to give his relievers a clean inning. He had to come and get Berrios in mid-inning in each of his last two starts. Today he eliminated the possibility.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#418485) #
Tough one for Pablo Lopez today against the Mets:

2.2 12 6 6 0 1
John Northey - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#418486) #
Jays in the mix for Pirates starter Jose Quintana along with the Yankees and White Sox among others. He is a free agent after 2022, 103 IP over 20 starts with a 119 ERA+ but a 69 last year over just 63 IP, and just 10 IP in 2020 after being a solid horse from 2013 to 2019 (171-200 IP each year). At 33 he would be a solid addition to the rotation. Their closer, David Bednar, would be great too - under control through 2026, 12.2 K/9 vs 2.7 BB/9, 155 ERA+. Doubt they want to trade Bednar but I'd ask anyways as him mixed with Romano would be a deadly duo at the end ala Henke/Ward in the early 90's. Yeah, Pittsburgh could work as a trade partner.

I didn't remember Montas' issues with PED's (hard to keep track of these things) but he has the usual excuse (didn't know it was part of a supplement he used, wasn't on the label) but also didn't fight it when caught. He is from the Dominican which means many on the Jays would know him and could help him acclimate here quickly.

It'll be interesting to see who ends up where in 2 days. Hopefully the Yankees if they get anyone get ripped off, hopefully the Jays get someone and it looks like a good deal in a year ala the Berrios one.
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#418488) #
This year. Starter, 3.01 ERA which is good. Reliever, 4.01 which is bad.
Last year. Starter, 4.69 ERA which is bad. Reliever, 5.40 which is terrible.

Before that, in the NL, in large parks, facing pitchers, etc... Not really relevant.

bpoz - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#418489) #
Berrios was very good.
scottt - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#418490) #
Relievers mostly hang out with other relievers.
Jays have 26 Americans on the 40 roster, 5 Dominicans, 2 Canadians (inluding Vlad), 2 Venezuelans, 1 Japanese, 1 Puerto Rican, 1 Mexican, 1 Cuban and 1 guy from Panama.

uglyone - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#418491) #
"It's pretty simple. "

So simple that we're always simultenuosly overworking our bullpen and needing to get then more work.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#418492) #
Stripling's relief appearances in 2021 came in September after missing a month with an oblique injury. He should have doing his rehab assignment in the minors, but the minor league season was over. Not that anyone should take what happens in 10 scattered innings, this year or last, too seriously anyway.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#418493) #
It's pretty simple.

It's never simple.

Never never never never never, as old King Lear famously cried.
Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#418494) #
Whoa! Sal Perez with a three run homer in the ninth off Clay Holmes, and the Royals come back to beat the Yankees (after blowing a 4-0 lead.) Mariners also lose, Rays also lose.

And the Budapest Grand Prix was a treat!
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#418495) #
@JonHeyman
Blue Jays have been looking for big pen help, a starter and a lefty bat. Ian Happ would fit their hitting need, but heís getting huge interest. Padres, Brewers and perhaps Braves are among others Happ would help.
5:48 PM ∑ Jul 31, 2022
Mike Green - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#418496) #
Seven innings from Berrios puts the club's pitching staff in good shape heading into August with the day off.   The days off are nicely spaced this month- August 1, 11, 22 and September 1.  The dog days of August are friendly dog days.

Six games against the Orioles in August, six in September and three in October. 



Magpie - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#418497) #
Six games against the Orioles in August, six in September and three in October.

Be careful what you wish for. Baltimore's winning percentages this season:
Apr. .333
May  .467
Jun. .538
Jul. .640
I don't think I even want to see the next number in that kind of sequence. The Jays' timing could definitely be better.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#418498) #
Well I know.  I saw this one coming, and said so on this very website. 
greenfrog - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#418500) #
Rodon so far tonight: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K (98 pitches)
hypobole - Sunday, July 31 2022 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#418502) #
Most teams know where they're at for the trade deadline.

Looking at the standings:
Buyers - White Sox on up, Cards on up.
Sellers - Rangers on down, Marlins on down (except for the Rockies as usual).

That leaves 3 teams - Orioles, Red Sox in the AL, Giants in the NL.

If you ran each each of those 3 teams what would you do? Buy, sell or stand pat?
Here's mine:
San Fran - stand pat or some combo of buy and sell.
Red Sox - sell.
Orioles - buy. Nothing big and preferably a player controllable beyond this year. Probably a waste of some depth prospect capital, but it both rewards the players for their play and energizes the fans who've endured a lengthy stretch of hopeless baseball.
John Northey - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:40 AM EDT (#418503) #
The O's have done remarkably well so far, and seem to do better each month but... they still have allowed more runs than they have scored (by 7) and despite that hot streak are still 3 games out of the wild card, 6 behind the Jays for the top wild card (which gets you home field for the first round). All their starters with 10+ starts have 105 or worse ERA+'s suggesting a lot of work to hope to win a round in the playoffs (hard to do it with a weak starting staff and no ace). 30 year old Austin Voth has a 143 ERA+ over 7 starts and 4 relief games but he was put on waivers earlier this year by Washington which is how the O's got him, lifetime 81 ERA+ so I wouldn't count on that 143 staying that high or even close.

Their RF is the only guy over 116 for OPS+ - Anthony Santander at 125, but a lifetime 104. Again, hard to survive if you don't have a scary bat anywhere to be found. Their rookie Rutschman who was the #1 prospect coming into the season has that 116 but he is the only regular under 25 on the team. For a team that has been rebuilding for awhile you'd think they'd have more really young kids. The Jays have Vlad & Kirk at 23 and Bo at 24 for example. So odds are what we see is the best the O's can hope for, and yes that July record is great but going forward I'd be surprised if they stayed over 500. They should be a team that upgrades a lot this winter though as they prepare to do battle in this division of death.
Parker - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#418504) #
Is anyone else bothered by that gigantic CGI BET display in centre field? We already delay watching games enough to skip through those inexplicably awful low-budget online gambling commercials, but Sportsnet somehow STILL finds a way to ruin a baseball game for us.
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:06 AM EDT (#418505) #
Ken Rosenthal's latest piece on The Athletic includes a couple of paragraphs on the Jays (he also notes their interest in Montas):

For Blue Jays, a diminished need

For all the talk about the Blue Jays needing a left-handed hitter, they entered Sunday ranked second in the majors in OPS vs. right-handed pitching and third in runs per game. They do not appear strongly in the mix for Soto. They might not add a left-handed bat at all, focusing instead on relievers with swing-and-miss stuff.

The addition of any meaningful left-handed hitter likely would require the Jays to trade a right-handed bat, a complicated two-step process that likely would be difficult to pull off. The Jays also are mindful of disrupting their chemistry. Their right-handed hitting corner outfielders, Teoscar HernŠndez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., are among the most popular players in their clubhouse.
jerjapan - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:13 AM EDT (#418507) #
Is anyone else bothered by that gigantic CGI BET display in centre field?
I am.  Amazing how fast gambling penetrated the sports universe - I follow a bunch of sports, and it's way worse in many.  I used to love catching up with sports radio on the drive to work, but when they started adding gambling segments every hour I had to stop. 
Chuck - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#418508) #
For all the talk about the Blue Jays needing a left-handed hitter, they entered Sunday ranked second in the majors in OPS vs. right-handed pitching and third in runs per game.

Yes, this seems to go overlooked. The team is actually hitting better against RHP than LHP. On paper, the heavy RH tilt should be hurting them, but it isn't. So what problem would a LHB like Happ actually be solving? Soto, of course, would be a different matter entirely.

Mike Green - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:25 AM EDT (#418509) #
They are vulnerable to a particular type of RHP, the very hard thrower with a biting slider. They are usually high-leverage relievers these days and they become more important in the playoffs.
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#418511) #
Interesting point. Also, Rosenthal's observation about strong team performance overlooks the significant injury to Springer. If he's ineffective, the Jays are going to have to play Tapia a lot in the postseason. That seems problematic, given the strength of the teams they'll be playing. I'm not sure how the team should address this, though.
lexomatic - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#418514) #
<br>thank our wonderful government for removing restrictions on advertising betting. All while cutting supports to gambling its horrendous. I agree, super offensive and big money behind it, which is all that corrupt politicians know how to listen to
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#418515) #
ď They are vulnerable to a particular type of RHP, the very hard thrower with a biting slider. They are usually high-leverage relievers these days and they become more important in the playoffs.Ē

Bingo
Chuck - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#418517) #
They are vulnerable to a particular type of RHP, the very hard thrower with a biting slider.

That may well be. But what's the solution? How much of the RH tilt can you reasonably be expected to address mid-season? Okay, you bring in Happ and now you have one LHB to pinch-hit with against the slider throwers. And even then, pinch-hit for whom?

scottt - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#418518) #
Yeah, exactly. You can't worry about relievers. You set up your lineup for the starter.
A guy who hits marginally better than Tapia is a tiny upgrade.
A left bat who can push Kirk out of the 3rd spot is another matter, obviously.
I just don't think there is one on the market. Let alone finding him a spot to play as the current need is CF.

I was listening to Blair and Barker and someone brought up Gallo.
Argh.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#418519) #
I wasn't impressed by Javier Baez is this past series with Detroit. Yesterday he made a poor effort on a pop-up by Bo Bichette, which he eventually dropped, and then made an equally poor throw on a routine groundball by Biggio which shorthopped the first baseman and went for another error. Add on a .221 batting average and 645 OPS and you can see that you don't get much for 6 years and 140 million these days.
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#418520) #
Baez is a good reminder that you don't have to do *something* and sign a free agent, even if he isn't your first choice. It's OK to stand pat and figure out a better move later on.
scottt - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#418521) #
Baez had 2 very good 6+ WAR year age 25/26.
He's never been an All-Star outside of that, always producing less than 3 WAR.
He salary peaked under 11M.
I don't see how you give him all that money.
I don't even see why you'd backload his contract. Tigers payroll isn't high.

I have no problem with Chapman walking after a QO.
We'll see when we get there.
Donaldson has not duplicated his good Atlanta year.
It's hard to bank on more than 2-3 WAR from a guy in his 30s. 

dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#418522) #
Morosi on radio. Heís asking, ďwhat is the value of Moreno in the market right now?Ē He seems to think that itís extremely highÖ high enough to get a Trea Turner and Scherzer type of return like the LAD did last year.

He thinks Moreno for Christian Javier or Tarik Skubal type deal.
John Northey - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#418523) #
Right now Moreno is very highly ranked. Many prospect lists were just updated - here are a few...
Keith Law: #5, up 1, feels Moreno should be playing everyday in the majors right now but is blocked by Jansen/Kirk and should be a multi-all-star long term. Corbin Carroll is #1
Baseball America: #1 Hit: 70 | Power: 50 | Run: 40 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 60
MLB.com: #5 Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 60 - Mets catching prospect Francisco Ńlvarez is #1

So clearly Moreno is a top 5 and ready for the majors right now. That has a very high value as there is little need to project where he'll be in 2022/23 as he is already set. The Jays have a surplus at catcher thus a need to trade someone and being in a pennant race they'd rather trade the prospect over the proven catcher Jansen or the mega hitter Kirk. But his value has to be seen as sky high with 6 years+ of control. I keep pounding this drum but a Carroll for Moreno trade makes so much sense for both teams it is insane.
Mike Green - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#418524) #
That may well be. But what's the solution? How much of the RH tilt can you reasonably be expected to address mid-season? Okay, you bring in Happ and now you have one LHB to pinch-hit with against the slider throwers. And even then, pinch-hit for whom?

Happ is good enough to put in the lineup, and take over Tapia's role.  With Biggio around, it's a step forward.  Happ is closer to Ben Zobrist than to Ben Revere...

Incidentally, the idea that Bo Bichette is somehow suited to the #4 slot in the batting order at this stage in his career is strange to me.  Medium-range pop and reluctance to take a walk are not the hallmarks of a cleanup hitter, and with him struggling, the effort to put him a role that isn't really suited to his talents is not likely helping him.  At this point, he's the #1 or #2 candidate to be pinch-hit for when the tough slider-thrower comes in but you don't do that to your cleanup hitter. 
Chuck - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#418526) #
the idea that Bo Bichette is somehow suited to the #4 slot in the batting order at this stage in his career is strange to me.

This seems to be a topic that none dare broach out loud, that a struggling Bichette should maybe be batting way, way down in the lineup. Rather, the debate seems to be limited to which of the 2, 3 and 4 holes he is best suited for.

I wonder if any interest in Happ is predicated on him once having played CF and thus serving as a Plan B to Springer who is often hurt and often in need of load management.

uglyone - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#418527) #
Yeah i feel jays fans aren't high enough on Moreno - especially when people talk about his being a C as some sort of bad thing in comparison to, say, a CF prospect. That's not true at all - C is still the rarest defensive skillset and Moreno seems to be very good at it. Even better, he clearly has the athleticism and the arm to play other positions, too.

I definitely think he's tradeable, (mostly because I think most every top ranked prospect might actually have more trade value than actual value), but downplaying him in relation to other top prospects seems very wrong to me.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#418529) #
If heís that good then keep him and trade Kirk.
uglyone - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#418531) #
But Kirk is also that good and Moreno probably has more trade value.
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#418532) #
I think Happ would be a very good addition. Switch-hitter, good hitter, in his prime, controllable through 2023, can play CF if necessary. He might be a bit redundant at times, but mostly I think there will be ample playing time for him.

I donít think Carroll is a significantly more valuable player than Moreno, just that itís hard to pry away another teamís top-ten overall MLB prospects, so you might need to go overboard if you want to make a deal happen.
hypobole - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#418533) #
Jays are built to win now. They're not trading Kirk.
uglyone - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#418534) #
With the caveat that Bichette does have history to not rush him down to the bottom of the order, i'd agree that based on recent performance - both this year's sample and the last calendar year sample, the ideal order would likely have Springer leading off, Vlad and Kirk in the 2-3 holes (either order), and then the foursome of Teoscar Jansen Chapman Gurriel in any order you prefer, then Bichette and Biggio/Espinal in the 8 and 9 holes, again in any order you want.
bpoz - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#418535) #
There are a lot of trade rumors and proposals. Personally I strongly feel that most of them will not become the truth.

Regarding our 3 Cs, Atkins has to figure out if the team can have all 3 on the 26 man roster when they all are healthy. I cannot see any of the 3 spending time in the minors next year if healthy. Even this year it seems unfair to keep Moreno down for a long time. Roughly 2 months to go.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#418536) #
ďJays are built to win now. They're not trading Kirk.Ē

I donít think anybody believes they would trade Kirk unless it increases their chances to win now. It seems completely plausible that Kirk can have more trade value and Moreno can step into his place.

Kirk is not as valuable as a shut down bullpen or an ace starter joining this team now.
uglyone - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#418538) #
"Kirk is not as valuable as a shut down bullpen or an ace starter joining this team now."

Kirk has literally been the best player on the team this year, while being (barely) the 2nd youngest.
Paul D - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#418539) #
Kirk is absolutely as valuable as any reliever on the market.

Ugly, I don't think it's a negative that Moreno is a catcher, but I don't trust catching prospects at all. Probably less than pitching prospects
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#418542) #
Let me try to be more clear:

Alejandro Kirk, on this particular Blue Jays team, which has Vlad at 1B, Jansen at catcher, and a #1 rated baseball prospect - ready for the big leagues - with above average hit tools and excellent defensive skills ... Kirk is the odd man out. He has less value here than he would on a team with room at DH.

Here is why he's less valuable ON THIS TEAM:

* We have a solid catcher
* We have the top prospect in baseball who happens to also be a catcher
* Kirk can't run and is a liability on base

Short of clearing out Vlad (or Moreno and making Jansen your back up), I think trading Kirk for impactful bullpen upgrades or an ace starter is more valuable to this team going forward.
Paul D - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#418543) #
I generally think that bad teams worry about having too many good players, while good teams figure out how to make it work
bpoz - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#418544) #
Very good trade by NYY. Good cub reliever Scott Effross for #7 prospect SP Hayden Wesneski.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#418545) #
Hader to Padres
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#418546) #
Montas about to be traded as well. Yankees look to be right there. Not a whisper anywhere about the Jays.
Mike Green - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#418548) #
I wouldn't suggest hitting Bichette 8th or 9th, given his track record and (particularly) the off-field distractions that surely must be having some effect on him.  How about 6th?  Taking the pressure off without dealing blow to the ego seems like a natural way of dealing with the situation. 
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#418549) #
If Effross is as good as his stats in 2021 and 2022 suggest, he could be a very good pickup for the Yankees.
scottt - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#418550) #
Looking at shortstops in the division.
Xander Bogaerts, 3.9 bWAR
Jorge Mateo, 1.9 bWAR
Wander Franco, 1.6 bWAR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 1.4 bWAR
Bo Bichette, 1.2 bWAR

Well, I wonder what kind of contracts awaits  Bogaerts, not that I think we should play there.


greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#418551) #
Is Montas heading to NYY? Recent Andy Martino tweet:

@martinonyc
Thereís a lot of talk right now about the Yankees and Montas. No trade ďyet,Ē was the intriguing response of a well-connected source.
1:26 PM ∑ Aug 1, 2022
scottt - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#418552) #
I absolutely think that poorly managed teams do not worry enough about which players to acquire.
Like the Angels, the Padres or the Phillies. Or Boston with Bradley Jr. 

Is Happ's defense in CF better than Tapia's?

The Rays has won year after year without a decent rotation by shoving pen arms in and out.
Just get 2 relievers, pull the starter after 2 times through the rotation and they probably can come out on top most night.
The risk is that we've seen many players be ineffective after a trade. 
dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#418553) #
You don't give the Rays enough credit. They featured openers heavily during the pandemic shortened season, but they've always had strong starting pitchers to build that around idea around. Here's their rotations for the past 5 years, factoring in injuries:

2022
McClanahan
Kluber
Rasmussen
Baz

2021
Glasnow
McClanahan
Hill
Wacha

2020
Snell
Glasnow
Morton
Yarbrough

2019
Snell
Glasnow
Morton
Yarbrough

2018
Archer
Snell
Eovaldi

2017
Archer
Snell
Cobb
Odorizzi
Ramirez

scottt - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#418554) #
Effross appears to throw a 90mph sinker and an 80mph slider/83mph change.
Has struck out 28% of hitters faced while walking 6%.

Funny enough, he has been good against right bats but great against lefties.
Might not be worse than the guys they already have as far as the Jays are concerned.

dalimon5 - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#418557) #
Montas and Trevino to NYY
bpoz - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#418558) #
I expected Preller and Dipoto to make big moves. After that NYY has not disappointed. LAD I feel has a big move in the works and lastly Philadelphia has a big move in them I believe.

Texas would do something except they are out of it.
greenfrog - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#418559) #
Maybe we need a trade deadline thread to cover the next 24 hours or so...?
bpoz - Monday, August 01 2022 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#418567) #
Just checked the top 100 prospect list. 4 are position players Carrol, Alvarez, G Henderson and Moreno. Some lower also seem very good.

Based on my experience there can be some big failures. That is a risk no team should/will take IMO. Moreno seems to have the highest floor in that he is a good athlete with a very strong and accurate arm. After 400-650 ABs in the ML we will know if he can hit. So far he is hitting ok. Lastly how well can he play 2B, SS and 3B that can help him get more ABs IMO? Moreno is also 1 of 3 good Cs so part of a surplus.
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