Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Whoa. New thread is required.

I haven't really been paying attention. (It's December, folks.) Anything interesting going on?

Winter Meetings Over, Right? | 169 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 05:21 PM EST (#440618) #
Don't worry, you didn't miss anything. 
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 05:52 PM EST (#440621) #
Dragon's Den guy had thousands of people following his flight, Jon Morosi had us briefly dancing in the streets, and Yusei Kikuchi went out to eat with many friends and family.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 06:05 PM EST (#440622) #
Perhaps the soothing voice of Eva Cassidy is appropriate. " Autumn Leaves " and " Fields of Gold " really hit the mark.
Magpie - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 06:43 PM EST (#440626) #
Soto to the Yankees, Ohtani to the Dodgers? Didn't the whole world assume this would happen, like six weeks ago?

It's hockey night! In Canada!

Besides - $700 million seems like a lot of money for a DH.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 06:56 PM EST (#440629) #
My position is unchanged. I would prefer to spend the money allocated for Ohtani on Yamamoto, Lee, and another player or two.

Of course, one reason the Blue Jays may have been interested in Ohtani is because Ohtani reciprocated that interest to some extent (although this may have been for leverage purposes). It’s not clear whether Yamamoto is even open to playing for Toronto.

mathesond - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 06:57 PM EST (#440630) #
"Besides - $700 million seems like a lot of money for a DH."

Yes, but a DH that will sell a heckuva lot of jerseys on both sides of the Pacific.
Nigel - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 06:59 PM EST (#440631) #
I think there is zero chance that anything close to the “Ohtani money” would be available for that plan. Ohtani represented a unique business/marketing opportunity.
bpoz - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 07:08 PM EST (#440633) #
Atkins will move faster now that the Ohtani deal is over. I expect 1 or 2 move by the end of next week.

I really hope that there is no Yamamoto drama the way there was for Ohtani. Maybe the media has learned something.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 07:08 PM EST (#440634) #
Maybe Toronto will become a bit more appealing to free agents as climate change renders parts of the US increasingly uninhabitable.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 07:10 PM EST (#440635) #
As Cuba Gooding Jr. would say, "Shohei the money!"
Four Seamer - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 07:23 PM EST (#440636) #
Seems pretty obvious the Jays were “finalists” only in the sense they were the only team naive enough to be used to lever some more dollars out of the Dodgers. Or perhaps they were aware they were being manipulated but happy to play along just to put on a bit of a show for their fans. If they just tinker around the edges the rest of the winter, we’ll know they were never serious about spending with the big boys and were just play acting.
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 07:36 PM EST (#440637) #
"Thank You Shohei Ohtani - you made the best decision for yourself, for the Dodgers and for the Blue Jays and their fans even if they are currently upset. With that contract the Jays were not going to be able to surround you with quality help and their farm system is currently weak and it would likely have been the Alex Rodriguez to the Rangers fiasco all over again. "


"I think the best path would be to sign Yamamoto (and Lee, if possible) and then make additional moves as needed. Double down on pitching and defense and also try to make a couple of offensive improvements.

Yamamoto and Lee are also good choices because they’re young and should perform well for many years."

This too.

"Seems pretty obvious the Jays were “finalists” only in the sense they were the only team naive enough to be used to lever some more dollars out of the Dodgers. Or perhaps they were aware they were being manipulated but happy to play along just to put on a bit of a show for their fans. If they just tinker around the edges the rest of the winter, we’ll know they were never serious about spending with the big boys and were just play acting."

Really, you came out of the woodwork at the Batter's Box just to get excited about Shohei then immediately turned into posting this garbage nonsense?
greenfrog - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:04 PM EST (#440638) #
Agreed Nigel, but maybe Rogers would be willing to spend two-thirds of the money allocated for Ohtani to improve the team in other ways post-renovations. Adding Yamamoto (best pitcher in Japan, young, extremely talented) and Lee could help raise the profile of the Jays/Rogers in Canada and globally. And of course winning more games would produce additional revenue for the organization.
Four Seamer - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:07 PM EST (#440639) #
Consider it nonsense if you like - doesn’t hurt my feelings, and none of this matters a lick, even though we all pretend it’s of the utmost importance - but I’ve been posting on this website, off and on, for 20 years, so no, I did not just come “out of the woodwork”.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:15 PM EST (#440640) #
Last thing. If the Dodgers stripped down their payroll so that they could sign Ohtani and Yamamoto and acquire certain other pitchers (Cease?), and they actually execute that plan, hats off to them. That would be an extremely impressive accomplishment.
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:33 PM EST (#440641) #
I looked up your posts. You're right. No intentions to hurt any feelings, but the post was still whiny.
SK in NJ - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:49 PM EST (#440642) #
I think this will ultimately work out to the Jays benefit, as that contract even with the deferrals is insane given his age and questionable pitching future, so trying to top that would have been a really bad decision, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed. Good for Ohtani to get the money he got. Now the off-season can finally begin.
Mike Green - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:55 PM EST (#440643) #
Geez, FS, has it really been 20 years?  Could be, I guess.  

I remember that you're a fan of Cat Power.  Music heals and do need a song for tomorrow.
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 08:59 PM EST (#440644) #
Has anybody mentioned yet that Ohtani was the one with the idea to defer the salary? That makes me think he wanted Dodgers as his first pick and he used the Jays as leverage and then offered to have his salary deferred to make it work.
greenfrog - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 09:23 PM EST (#440645) #
The Jays were the perfect leverage team for Ohtani and his agent to use. Desperate to start winning in the post-season, desperate to break into the Japanese market, rich owner with a willingness to spend on a marketable global celebrity, pressing need for a middle-of-the-order LH bat.
Barry Bonnell - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 09:55 PM EST (#440646) #
If Ohtani can't pitch he's an excellent outfielder. Enough with the just a DH nonsense.
Kasi - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 10:02 PM EST (#440647) #
You are incorrect. He hasn’t played OF since 21. He is just a DH now.
Kasi - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 10:09 PM EST (#440648) #
Actually it’s even worse than I thought. In six seasons he has a total of 8.1 innings in the OF. So not even one full game. And you think he’s a good OF? He didn’t even have a single putout in those innings.
Kasi - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 10:11 PM EST (#440649) #
Yeah I agree with Dalimon. That he came to the dodgers with that fairly clearly shows Toronto was just used as leverage. Hope the guy sucks tbh since I don’t like my team being strung along. Just another reason to root against the dodgers.
Four Seamer - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 10:57 PM EST (#440651) #
Yes, hard to believe it’s been that long, MG! Some Cat Power always goes down well, but tonight especially - the best antidote to a 700 million contract may just be “Free”.
Kasi - Saturday, December 09 2023 @ 11:16 PM EST (#440652) #
Just because Ohtani wasn’t serious about the Jays doesn’t mean the jays weren’t serious about him. We know the higher ups authorized a huge amount to try and get him. Ohtani came to Dunedin. Honestly not sure at this point how anyone can call the Jays cheap. Ryu, Springer, Gausmann, Berrios, etc. They have spent a lot recently. And we know from several others like Verlander or Yoshida that they were very close to getting them. The problem with the Jays FO is not that they’re cheap. Their problem is they’ve struggled to develop prospects into mlb calibre players which has forced them to the FA market more than they should have.
mendocino - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 12:28 AM EST (#440654) #
The BA Top 10 chat suggested not a development problem but they don't get as much out of the draft as they should. The '19 International class was much heralded by BA's Ben Badler but it's turning into a big nothing burger... Scouting?
John Northey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 01:19 AM EST (#440655) #
The trick now is what are impact moves the Jays van make? Manny Machado from SD would be a solid one, but very $$$ - owed $333 mil over 10 years (age 31-40). Xander Bogaerts $254 over ages 31-40 as well. I'm sure they be available for next to nothing with those contracts. I suspect many of the 8-10 year deals handed out recently will look bad in 5 years or less. But right now it is the cost of doing business at the high end.
Ducey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 01:44 AM EST (#440656) #
Jays signed Payton Henry, a catcher, 26, to a minor league deal. 294/341/454 in the IL. Originally drafted out of high school in the 6th round. Had a cup of coffee last yr.
bpoz - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 07:56 AM EST (#440657) #
Roki Sasaki is a young Japanese pitcher (an Ace). He should be posted within 2 years.

Payton Henry is a good enough defensive C. He could be a #3 C for the Jays in case of injury.

Our farm is ranked as weak. However we have a quantity of players that have successfully passed AA. While Pearson took forever (injuries) to produce anything to help the ML team, Max Castillo was right on time to help the Jays a little. We have needed mid season pitching to help the pen and rotation and Atkins had to trade for it. Like T Walker in 2020 who was better than R Ray in 2020. In 2021 Cimber was good. Hand and Soria were not. 2022 Bass & Pop. 2023 G Cabrera & Hicks.

I have to admit that the weak ranking is justified based in the evidence that I just provided. Hopefully 2024 is better.
Paul D - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 09:06 AM EST (#440658) #
Anyone interested in max muncy? He's out of a position in LA now
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 09:48 AM EST (#440659) #
Max Muncy could be a fit.  His contract is for $9.5 M and $14.5 M the next two years, plus a $10 M club option for 2026.

Gio Urshela is an appealing short-term solution, if Orelvis Martinez and others can compete for the job.

Matt Chapman is still out there. Haven't heard many rumours about him.
85bluejay - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 10:02 AM EST (#440660) #
I think the Jays missed an opportunity when Seattle was seeking financial relief - I would have taken the contracts of Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales & White without giving up much - The Jays would have had 3B and LF covered with no longterm commitment and Kelenic could become a star.
85bluejay - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 10:26 AM EST (#440661) #
Wasn't Max Muncy the Dodgers primary 3B in 2023 - Why is he out of position?
Paul D - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 10:31 AM EST (#440662) #
Muncy is not a very good 3b, and by all accounts they wanted to move him to DH. Very good point though, maybe they just keep him at 3b
scottt - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 11:10 AM EST (#440663) #
To play at third, Urshela is the best option.
Also, they seem interested in a guy who can play center and bats right, presumably to be the 4th outfielder.

The other holes are LF and DH, they could plug just about anybody there, but would they be any better than the free guys currently in AAA?

I don't like long term options like Machado. Soto will be a free agent in a year and he will go to the highest offer. He should be a DH before long.

I like short term options like Max Kepler who is available, but they probably want pitching back.

I'd try to bring Belt back. Just be ready for him to take 6 weeks to get going.

The biggest issue is the lack of a quality cleanup bat.
A guy who can clear the bases and expend the strike zone with 2 strikes while still getting hits. 

Othani playing for the Dodgers rather than the Angels isn't going to affect the Jays much.
The Angels could be terribly bad which would help the 3 good teams in the ALW grab wild card spots.
Soto playing for the Yankees is probably going to make them better.
The threshold for that last wild card could be a couple of wins higher in 2024.

Marc Hulet - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 11:25 AM EST (#440664) #
I'd pass hard on Machado and his questionable drive... the Jays have enough loafers.
bpoz - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 11:26 AM EST (#440665) #
For me the news about #17 having to become available was the clincher.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 12:38 PM EST (#440666) #
I hope the Jays don't pivot to someone like Soler, in an effort to get (low-nutrient) home runs for marketing purposes.
Mike Green - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 01:04 PM EST (#440667) #
For FS, Free. And for soupman,  Real Good For Free.   Incidentally, I ran out of soup recipes over a decade ago when I did the Hall Watch series and maybe someone has some to share.  It's that time of year. 

electric carrot - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 01:51 PM EST (#440668) #
I think the Jays should send an invoice for 2% commission from Ohtani salary for services rendered.
John Northey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 03:14 PM EST (#440669) #
The same guys who said the Jays had Ohtani in the bag now say the Dodgers came up with about $100 million in the last 24 hours after the news broke that drove us all nuts on Friday.

In truth, that makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't be shocked if a rep of the company Ohtani is with leaked that information in an effort to push the Dodgers over the top. If so, then congrats to that person - they deserve a raise. Also, as a Jays fan, may that person be damned to hell.

Now, for impact - Ohtani in 2024 is projected at 4.2 to 4.3 fWAR right now. J.D. Martinez (DH for Dodgers in 2023) was at 2.2 last year, projected at 0.6 for 2024. Bellinger was at 4.1 projected at 2.4-2.6. Steamer has 34* (*=Wander Franco who will probably be out all year) guys projected to be 4.0+ guys in 2024 - potentially available are Tatis (if SD goes full fire sale), Francisco Lindor & Brandon Nimmo if NYM go fire sale (if they lose out of Yamamoto I could see this happening), Mike Trout (LAA gotta be thinking about it at least), Xander Bogaerts (SD has already been begging people to take his crazy deal). That is it for high impact projected guys ala Ohtani. Manny Machado is just shy at 3.8.

Only 4 guys are projected at 2+ WAR that are still free agents - Chapman (2.6), Bellinger (2.4), Amed Rosario (2.3), Rhys Hoskins (2.0). Soler & the rest are sub 2's (ie: below average regulars) with Garver at 1.8 for 96 games (poor defensive catcher/DH). Teoscar & Gurriel both at 1.4 projections. Gio Urshela 1.1 in 92 games. You get the idea. Basically outside of pitching the players out there are underwhelming either by trade or free agency.

For pitchers they don't project Yamamoto, but Snell is at 3.3, Montgomery 3.2, Stroman 2.6, Paxton 2.3, Giolito 2.3, Lugo 2.1, Manaea 2.0. Snell is tempting there as he'd lock down the rotation nicely but then what to do with Kikuchi/Manoah - do you really want them fighting for that last slot, do you trade one of them for something?

Basically high impact players just aren't on the market. The top 10 hitters are either signed long term (Ramirez, Tatis, Acuna, Judge, Betts, Alvarez, Julio Rodríguez), pre-arb (Rutschman, Gunner Henderson), or were just traded for (Soto). The only hope to get one is to have a team desperate to cut costs who you match up with (SD for Tatis, Cleveland for Ramirez but I don't see him being traded after he signed a below market deal to stay and has universal no-trade protection).

Yamamoto is the only possible high impact guy left on the board imo and he could struggling in his first ML season (it isn't odd for that to happen). My gut is the Jays go hard after Bellinger and Chapman hoping to sign one or the other. But hopefully not stupid after them (ie: no 10 year $200+ deal). My ideal is signing Jung-Hoo Lee and Yamamoto and Gio Urshela. Covers the core positions with solid defense/pitching for probably $50 mil a year ($15 for Lee, $25 for Yamamoto, $10 for Urshela) but with the Mets/Yankees/Dodgers/etc. all after Yamamoto it might be impossible to get him and the price might go stupid high (OK, will go, maybe up to $30-40 per year range). If they can get Lee for $15 mil per he'd be at worse an overpriced solid defensive 4th OF, at best a new high average leadoff hitter as Springer gets old. Urshela's worst case is similar but cheaper (utility IF with solid defense, similar to Espinal).

Just for fun - Ohtani hasn't passed his physical yet and the paperwork isn't 100% completed. Normally technicalities but after the Correa mess last winter who knows?
vw_fan17 - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 03:21 PM EST (#440670) #
Like I said in the other thread: Vlad and Bo for Machado (50% retained), Bogaerts and Tatis.
Mike Green - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 03:23 PM EST (#440671) #
Urshela's worst case is replacement level or below.  He's 32 years old and the last 3 years his xwOBAs have been .304, .323 and .288.  His numbers have only looked vaguely palatable because of BABIPs of .329, .326 and .346.  He's right-handed and now slow.  His IsoP fell to .075 last year.  His expected performance is no better than Espinal's. 
greenfrog - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 03:45 PM EST (#440672) #
Atkins is in a bind, I think. He’s probably not going to be able to land Yamamoto or Lee, given the bidding war that is underway (or soon to be underway) for those players. Not sure what the strategy will be in this situation. Atkins was able to acquire Chapman for lesser prospects, so maybe he can pull off another successful trade for a position player. The Jays don’t have a lot of highly-desirable prospects to trade without seriously depleting their farm system.

It’s a challenging situation but maybe Atkins can puzzle his way through it.
Mike Green - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 04:09 PM EST (#440673) #
Subjectively, I like Yamamoto about as much as Ohtani. He doesn't have the track record nor the flexibility nor the marketing advantage, but he has youth and health on his side.

On the other hand, he is a pitcher. Long-term contracts without a track record of durability are a dubious proposition. Decisions.
Nigel - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 04:17 PM EST (#440674) #
I have to admit, of all the names thrown around as ideas Urshela’s feels the least inspired. I’m really not sure he would do better than a Biggio/Espinal job share. Either empty the bucket by moving Tiedemann etc or move along.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 04:22 PM EST (#440675) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette for Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (and cash) would be wild.

Yes, Ross Atkins is in a tough spot, if he does or doesn't.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 04:30 PM EST (#440676) #
Who represents a bigger health risk over the next decade, Yamamoto or Ohtani?

I hope the Blue Jays make a massive bid to land Yamamoto, partly because he seems to be exceptionally good at baseball and partly because he would make the Blue Jays an exciting team again.
bpoz - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 04:41 PM EST (#440677) #
I know Atkins has to improve the O because we had trouble scoring runs last year. I seemed "all" of last year. Bringing in someone who provides v good D is not the solution to scoring more. Chapman will not help on O.

Other than bringing in a good bat Atkins does "not" have to do anything IMO. Our rotation and pen is good. D is fine.

I expect some moves from Atkins. The 3rd C is probably ok. We could use a 4th OF that has good D in CF.

I still say that the goal is to be in contention for the whole year. So on paper we are pretty good. Snell, Montgomery, Cease and maybe 2 more good SPs are all that is available at the moment it seems. Our competition can add probably only 1 which will not be enough to run away with the AL. IMO 1 or 2 hot teams will be the leaders due to a hot start.
johnny was - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 05:02 PM EST (#440678) #
Well, I've got some bad news for anyone who was wondering if we could get a really good A's player for a handful of magic beans one more time.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 05:13 PM EST (#440679) #
If I were a trading partner with MLB impact talent to offer, I would be asking for prospects like Tiedemann, Bonilla, Nimmala…
John Northey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 05:17 PM EST (#440680) #
Might be hard for the Jays to finalize a deal in the next week or two as every agent will be assuming the Jays have $$$ to spend and a desire to make a splash quickly, and they'd be right. Trick is for Atkins to be far more patient and thoughtful than any of us could be in this situation. As I've mentioned a few times there isn't anyone out there who is a real impact player ala Ohtani or Soto anymore, unless a surprise player is available via trade or Yamamoto goes for far less than I suspect he goes for now ($300/10 is my current guess as the Mets owner is determined to get him - which is an insane risk imo but he seems willing to make it).
vw_fan17 - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 06:34 PM EST (#440681) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette for Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. (and cash) would be wild.

The crazy thing is, the trade simulator tilts that WAY in favor of the Padres, because Bo has like $55M excess value, and the total package from the Padres has slightly negative value, IIRC. That's why they'd have to include $$ to offset Machado. Taking Bo OUT of that package makes it much closer, but I think if you traded Machado, Bogaerts and Tatis for VGJ coming off a 2 WAR year, people would burn down the stadium in San Diego.. Maybe Vlad and Manoah and Springer and no cash?

The Padres, if they really need to cut a TON of $$, would probably do this deal - I mean, even with all these guys AND Soto, they couldn't get CLOSE to the playoffs, and now they're without Soto.. Time for a rebuild. Jays are in the "win now" mode, but, crazily enough, Vlad and Bo are the two pieces they were supposed to build around. They've signed a ton of good to great supporting players, but Vlad was the one who has regressed.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 08:34 PM EST (#440682) #
If they’ve had the money to be even in on talks with Shoei then taking on a good layer/bad contract has to be the next move. Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Xander Boagerts, and mostly because we don’t have the prospects to go after high value targets.
John Northey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 11:13 PM EST (#440683) #
It is funny - BTV has Machado at -$132.9 mil of value vs Tatis at +$132.8 mil. So if you take both you should be able to get them for nothing (or Cam Eden & Mitch White as I put in just for fun - got 'Fair Trade' but 0% chance of that one happening).
John Northey - Sunday, December 10 2023 @ 11:23 PM EST (#440684) #
For more laughs I changed the Jays offer to Santiago Espinal and got "Minor Overpay" for Tatis & Machado. Heh. I'd love to see the Jays make that offer, then see SD's GM go 'screw off' but the ownership overrule him and say 'we need to save that cash'. Oh what a team that would be eh? Solid OF, solid 3B, only hole left is DH but then you could just rotate guys and mix in Horwitz and be fine. It'd be a $56 mil hit to the luxury tax each year, $28.7 mil to 'real' payroll next year, up to $66 mil by 2027 to 2033 (Machado ends in 2033, Tatis in 2034). Doubt Rogers would approve that big a hit, but they might. SD goes into full rebuild mode (they might as well take the full hit now) and the Jays have a massive offensive upgrade (9.5 fWAR projected by Steamer, 9.6 by ZiPS). Odds are though the Padres would rather eat some salary and get some prospects. In which case I'm sure something could be worked out.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 12:55 AM EST (#440685) #
Put recent, real world trades into the simulator and see what you get.
Mike Green - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 09:42 AM EST (#440686) #
Veteran singers for a Monday.  Mavis Staples at 37 and Pops Staples at 62 on the Weight which many (most?) of you have seen.   And then there's Aretha Franklin at the Kennedy Center at age 74 in front of the assembled celebrities.  I don't care for the strings, but when she takes off her coat and gets in full voice, it's a sweet reminder of what she did. 

We were talking about the importance of luck in the playoffs.  The awareness of this predated the sabermetric era.  Two 1960s World Series were much remarked upon in my youth- the 1960 World Series with the Pirates winning 4 games (6-4, 3-2, 5-2 and 10-9) and the Yankees winning 3 games (16-3, 10-0 and 12-0) and the 1962 World Series where the Yankees and Giants went to the 9th inning of the 7th game with the series tied, the Yankees ahead 1-0 in the game but the Giants having outscored the Yankees 21-20.  The Giants had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two out when Willie McCovey lined out sharply to Bobby Richardson.  Statcast would probably have the expected wBA on that ball at about .650. 
Mike Green - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 10:55 AM EST (#440687) #
Dan Szymborski has Ohtani's long-term ZiPS projection, and it's, um, uninspiring.  He's an All-Star in two years on merit in 2025 and 2026,  a marginal All-Star on merit in 2027, and a good player in 2024 and  2028-9.  To make the contract make sense, his marketing value has to be about 1/2 of the contract. 

I felt when Ohtani arrived that he would be best from a baseball perspective to devoted himself to being the best rightfielder in the game.  I still think that it is true.  But in some ways, he has outdone Ruth and that is worth a lot from a marketing perspective, even if it doesn't help a team win as many games as one would think. 
greenfrog - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 11:04 AM EST (#440688) #
If the signing inspires Yamamoto to join the Dodgers, that would be a significant additional benefit to the organization.

The Ohtani contract could blow up if he starts having further injury problems. This would seem to be a big risk, especially if he tries to be a hitter and a starting pitcher. As a power pitcher and power hitter, he would have a lot of force exerted on his body on a regular basis, something that could catch up to him in his 30s (and may already be catching up to him).
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 11:32 AM EST (#440689) #
One thing to add about the Jays not getting enough good, young (cheaper) players from the draft is that even their top prospects that were traded ( eg. Austin Martin) don't seem to be making an impact with their new clubs.
John Northey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 11:44 AM EST (#440690) #
That ZIPS projection really makes one feel better about the Jays losing out. Within a few years, or even quicker, that contract could be a millstone on the Dodgers that makes payroll a nightmare. I've been digging into data and it doesn't look good for Ohtani, but dang if it wasn't fun to dream of him as he has been for the past few years. His 38 wins and 171 HR puts him in a rare category - Ruth had 94 wins and 714 HR so Ohtani needs to come back strong to reach either total, but the fact he could is what makes him so fun.

But back to reality - LF, 3B, DH - the positions the Jays need to fill. Or we go with Lukes/cheap free agent, Biggio/Espinal, Horwitz/whoever isn't catching while Schneider has 2B. Yikes in LF, potential yikes in IF.

LF: Bellinger is the big fish, 3B: Chapman, DH: ummm....

Yeah, not a lot to get out there, not a lot on the trade front unless the Jays eat a LOT of cash or a team is so desperate about finances they make a stupid deal. Right now the best hope is one or two of the kids are ready (Schneider, Barger, Orelvis Martinez, whoever) and the Jays get lucky with someone (Chapman or Bellinger ideally). I'd be very shocked if we get Yamamoto, as nice as it'd be.
scottt - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 01:53 PM EST (#440691) #
As far as I know, the posting system is inspiration free.

The team that puts the most cash on the table is the only one the player can deal with.
The tabs for Yamamoto is supposed to be over 300M including the posting fee.
The Yankees are probably the favourite here. They've lost pitching to get Soto.

mendocino - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 02:24 PM EST (#440692) #
Life in the minors getting even better.

"In addition to securing the properties where players and coaches reside during the season, P.R.O.S. also provides furnishing, utility set up, orientation, bilingual services, accessible customer service 24 hours a day and damage insurance programs."
John Northey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 03:00 PM EST (#440693) #
The posting system is basically a time limited free agency - players can negotiate with anyone for 30-45 days (30 for Korea, 45 for Japan). When they sign the team signing them pays a fee to their old club in Japan/Korea based on the total contract value - if there are incentives the club gets a percentage based on those incentives should they be cashed in. More details at MLB's site. Basically a $100 mil contract gets $16.9 mil in posting fees added - player gets $100 mil, their old team gets $16.9 mil, ML team gets control of that player for 6 years or the length of their contract depending on terms agreed to.
scottt - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 03:04 PM EST (#440694) #
I see. I still had the old posting system in mind.

Still. Would he sign for a discount to be on the same team as the guy who signed for 700M?
Maybe 400M with a huge deferral instead?

greenfrog - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 03:39 PM EST (#440695) #
Apparently he was a fan of the Dodgers when he was a kid. And remember that LA smartly cleared a lot of payroll space before 2024 in anticipation of pursuing Yamamoto.

Of course, the Yankees and Mets (and Giants and who knows who else) will make him huge offers as well.
John Northey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 04:01 PM EST (#440696) #
Yeah, I see the Jays doing their due diligence on him but not going to the silly range ($300+ mil I see as silly) for a guy who hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors. If the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets want to go coo-coo for him, so be it.

Interesting on Twitter how Ricky Romero and Kevin Gausman basically furious over how the US media is saying 'thank god Ohtani went to LA instead of Toronto, so much better for MLB'. Good to see current and former Jays standing up for Toronto.

My feeling, based on what we are seeing, is that Bellinger is very open to Toronto and I suspect using current and former players as cheerleaders would help sell him on TO. But it depends on what other options are out there in trade (not much afaik) and how the Jays rate him at this point (do they see him going all the way back to his peak of 7.8 fWAR in 2019, or more like his -1.0 in 2021. His peak year was at 23, same age as Bo's first 5+ WAR season (Vlad was 22 in his big year). If the Jays data team sees Bellinger as being likely to get back to that level then he is easily worth the $200+ he is asking for, but if not then he isn't. I'd probably look at an incentive based deal where he has 5 years locked in, but years 6 and on are activated based on playing time (IE: each healthy year adds one on).
Ducey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 05:03 PM EST (#440697) #
The new York Post has a story up about how Bellinger's fiancé posted the Toronto skyline on her Instagram recently.

Hopefully people learned their lesson last week.
John Northey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 05:59 PM EST (#440698) #
Well, this is nuts: Ohtani deferring $68 mil a year for 10 years. Basically he wants the Dodgers to have tons of cash while he is active in exchange for making them cash poor in the decade after his deal ends. That $68 mil a year is with 0% interest too. So his deal is worth a LOT less than advertised.
Polite Nate - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 06:05 PM EST (#440699) #
No way MLB let's Toronto get away with that had the Jays be the one to have signed him.
Chuck - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 06:35 PM EST (#440700) #
So his deal is worth a LOT less than advertised.

What's that, about 450-475MM present value? So not an enormous leap beyond Judge's current rate of 40MM per.

Chuck - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 06:43 PM EST (#440701) #
No way MLB let's Toronto get away with that

I guess the question is whether the Dodgers' approach is materially different from the Padres' attempt last year at paying Judge an amount for 10 years, but on a "14-year" contract, to lower the AAV, well aware they'd be cutting him loose after 10 years.

The Dodgers will still incur a ~45MM annual "cap hit" (or whatever the math works out to based on the contract's PV). Given that so many expected Ohtani to be getting 500-550MM for 10 years, with no deferments, this is really on the player to accept a "below market value" rate. It definitely looks like he could have got more money by foregoing deferrals, though seeing far less than 700MM. Even though this was Ohtani's idea, I wonder if the union might have issues with Ohtani's PV annual rate being lower than expected.

99BlueJaysWay - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 07:19 PM EST (#440702) #
I don’t care that money was deferred, but I think it’s absolute crap that this lowers the CBT exposure. As I understand it from the current stories, this lowers the tax exposure to 45M over the next 10years, instead of 70M. Thats the egregious part of this for me
Chuck - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 07:26 PM EST (#440703) #
Playing around with an NPV calculator and plugging in the average inflation rate (2.6%) for the past 10 years, we get an NPV of 475MM. Baseball salaries seem to climb faster than the inflation rate, so going with a 5% rate yields an NPV of 338MM.

One can complain about the shenanigans to come to a lower AAV for tax purposes, but Ohtani has seemingly left tons of money on the table. He's very serious about wanting to play for a team that can compete.

scottt - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 08:00 PM EST (#440704) #
Deferred money is counted at the US federal mid-term rate which is 4.43% for this year.

At that rate, 70M in 2034 is worth 44.5M in 2024.
I don't see a point in compounding the whole 10 year since 70M over 10 years isn' t worth 700M anyway.

Another point is that he can dodge the California tax if he's not living there in 10 years. 

Also worth nothing is that Freeman and Betts have also deferred money in their contract but only 115M for Betts and 57M for Freeman.

Gerry - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 08:25 PM EST (#440705) #
Ohtani reportedly earns around $40M per year in endorsement deals. Presumably that will decline some when he stops playing. The deferral evens out his income, not that it matters for tax at those levels.

I don't know US or California taxes but he is being paid $70M per year for his services, are we sure he is not taxable on the $70M.

Japenese people seem to like living in Japan, I don't suppose Ohtani would like to live in the Cayman Islands, or Monaco, or some other tax haven after retirement.
John Northey - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 08:48 PM EST (#440706) #
Looking at all that deferred money the Dodgers in 2030 and beyond are royally screwed it seems. $68 mil for 2034-2043, $8 mil per for Betts from 2033-2037, $10 mil for 2038-2039, $11 mil for 2040-2044. Freeman: $4 mil from 2028-2035 & $5 mil from 2036-2040. So a total of $4 mil for 2028-2032, $12 mil 2033, then the 'oh crap' $80 mil for 2034-2035, $81 mil for 2036-2037, $83 mil for 2038-2039, $84 mil for 2040, $79 mil 2041-2043, $11 mil for 2044. Then whoever owns the Dodgers at that point can finally go 'thank god that is over'.
Gerry - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 10:12 PM EST (#440707) #
I just saw a post about US taxes. Generally deferred payments are taxed on payment in the state where they payments were earned, in this case California.

BUT, if the deferred payments are paid out over a period of 10 years or more, then the payments are taxed based on the state of residence when the payments are made.

So the deferral seems to be a tax dodge by Ohtani and his advisors. So is the deferral really about helping the Dodgers or is it to help Ohtani dodge taxes?
vw_fan17 - Monday, December 11 2023 @ 10:33 PM EST (#440708) #
Anyone else get the feeling that the Jays are going to sign like one 1.x WAR reliever or backup, and that's it?
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 02:59 AM EST (#440709) #
Option A: $600M to the greatest free agent ever.
Option B: $6M to like one 1.x WAR reliever or backup.

Yeah probably.
bpoz - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 06:59 AM EST (#440710) #
Another reliever could be signed fairly soon but a backup or decent but not great position player will take longer to sign IMO. Belt was signed Jan 10,2023. I am waiting to see when Teo and Gurriel will sign. I suspect Dec.

Significant trades should happen late Dec or early Jan. For example Moreno/ Gurriel happened Dec 23.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 08:45 AM EST (#440711) #
Do pro-athletes file taxes for each different U.S. state where they play games?  And one wonders how much insurance is purchased for a $700 M contract.

Is Atkins reluctant to trade Tiedemann after the way things played out with Moreno?  Likewise, the success of Davis Schneider, will that lend itself to other prospects being given an opportunity?  (Orelvis Martinez, et al.)

Agree with bpoz about a relief pitcher.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 09:14 AM EST (#440712) #
I just saw a post about US taxes. Generally deferred payments are taxed on payment in the state where they payments were earned, in this case California.

BUT, if the deferred payments are paid out over a period of 10 years or more, then the payments are taxed based on the state of residence when the payments are made.

So the deferral seems to be a tax dodge by Ohtani and his advisors. So is the deferral really about helping the Dodgers or is it to help Ohtani dodge taxes?

I would guess both.  If I understand the way the luxury tax applies, the Dodgers will be hit with the AAV of the contract each year despite the deferral.  But, if they don't actually have to spend the money, it's more easy to spend for the next 10 years.  There must have been teams of actuaries, accountants and economists working on the discount rate for $68M per annum in 2034 and following.  I imagine that there were multiple opinions on what the expected interest rate over the decade would be.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 09:15 AM EST (#440713) #
Anyone else get the feeling that the Jays are going to sign like one 1.x WAR reliever or backup, and that's it?

Not particularly. Last year they signed Bassit & Kiermaier; the year before, Gausman & Kikuchi; before that, Springer & Semien. Plus a variety of trades - Varsho, Chapman, etc. Regardless of what you think of the results, the front office doesn't have a track record of sitting around.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 09:17 AM EST (#440714) #
Just read Chuck's post below.  If that's the way it's going to work for luxury tax purposes, the union should have a problem with it. 
85bluejay - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 09:53 AM EST (#440715) #
"But Ohtani seemingly left tons of money on the table."

I think it's extremely difficult to come to that conclusion without knowing what the other offers were - I suspect that the dodgers offer was very competitive with other offers.
Gerry - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 09:55 AM EST (#440716) #
Fangraphs published their Blue Jay top 30 this morning. I have started a separate thread on it.
Glevin - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 10:50 AM EST (#440719) #
One interesting team to trade with is now Reds who signed Candelario. They have Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Matt McLain and Jonathan India in the IF. Steer I think is moving to OF but still have depth to trade. I think they want to trade India and some commentators keep talking him up but he's just very much a replacement level player and I wouldn't give up much for him. I'd be very interested in any of the other players though. (Have to think EDLC, Marte, and McLain would be very hard to get). Would a Manoah for Encarnacion-Strand trade work?
ayjackson - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 11:08 AM EST (#440721) #
Can Encarnacion-Strand play serviceable 3B? And does he own a parrot?
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 01:17 PM EST (#440725) #
Mark Feinsand says the Blue Jays are going to meet with Yamamoto.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 03:24 PM EST (#440729) #
Not particularly. Last year they signed Bassit & Kiermaier; the year before, Gausman & Kikuchi; before that, Springer & Semien. Plus a variety of trades - Varsho, Chapman, etc. Regardless of what you think of the results, the front office doesn't have a track record of sitting around.

I'm not saying they WANT to be inactive.. But, are they getting Bellinger or Yamamoto? Given the Ohtani outcome (and others not wanting to come to Toronto), I'm guessing not.

Who's left? We don't exactly have a lot of trading capital.

85bluejay - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 05:05 PM EST (#440736) #
Yamamoto is said to like the spotlight/big stage, so I'd expect he signs with an LA/NY team.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 05:29 PM EST (#440738) #
Best Shape of his Life (and it's only december!)

Gerry - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 05:35 PM EST (#440739) #
Where has the belly gone?

I wonder if Manoah has lost some weight too.
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 05:40 PM EST (#440740) #
Looking good, Captain Kirk. 
85bluejay - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 05:44 PM EST (#440741) #
Kirk, in two seconds you can let your stomach out.
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 06:26 PM EST (#440742) #
Lee to the Giants. 6years, $113M
Mike Green - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 06:37 PM EST (#440743) #
That sounds reasonable to me.  I don't know about Lee's current state of health and can offer no comment about whether it's a bargain or not.  If he's completely recovered, I would have gone higher. 
85bluejay - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:05 PM EST (#440744) #
I like Lee but for me that's a significant overpay for a hitter coming from the KBO but the Giants are a desperate team and Farhan Zaidi is said to be on the hot seat.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:06 PM EST (#440745) #
Ohtani, Soto, Nola, Gray, Lee, others off the board. The market is gradually thinning out.

Really hoping for Yamamoto to the Jays as a smart long-term addition to the team. Then Bellinger and/or Chapman.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:21 PM EST (#440747) #
Add about $19m (rough estimate) for Lee’s posting fee, and the contract ends up being about 6/$132m for SF.
Nigel - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:40 PM EST (#440750) #
The list of significant Asian players who have posted into MLB anywhere other than large market coastal teams is short. Maybe only 1. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Gerry - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:53 PM EST (#440752) #
That seems like a lot of money for Lee.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:53 PM EST (#440753) #
Yamamoto or bust unless they have some big trades in the works.

I'd rather not have Bellinger or Chapman.

One big trade to bring us a strong left handed hitter.

Sign a slugger like Soler.

I'd be okay with that.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 07:57 PM EST (#440754) #
One nice thing about signing Yamamoto — who could be a 4-6 WAR pitcher next year — is that it would free up the Jays best prospect (Tiedemann) for trade purposes.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 08:02 PM EST (#440755) #
I don't know that the Jays can pull out any impact moves at this point given the market and under-performing systemq. My expectation is mostly Hoskins or Garver (DH), Gio Urshela (3B), and Gallo or Duvall in LF... and maybe some depth moves for SP and RP. And pray Martinez/Barger/Horwitz, etc force their way in sooner rather than later.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 10:22 PM EST (#440756) #
For moves I see the Jays eating salary of an overpaid player in order to get a quality one. Ideally an overpaid guy who is at 3B or LF while the quality one is at the opposite of those 2 positions. Sadly the only match I can think of is SD and I doubt they trade Tatis to get rid of Machado's salary.

3B is going to be the nightmare I suspect - resign Chapman for more years/$$ than ideal (5 x $30 per he wants, maybe get at 6 x $25 - same dollars, but 1 more year which probably will be a bad one, but spreads dollars out more, ages 31-36). Would be a LOT cheaper than Machado though (31-40 $333 mil), who hits better than Chapman but also fields worse. Hate to say it, but the longer this winter goes the more likely Chapman being back here for 5-6 years at a high $ seems to be.

In ex-Jay news Pirates sign Rowdy Tellez for 1/$3.2 mil.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 12 2023 @ 10:51 PM EST (#440757) #
Just looked at BR's Free Agent tables. A quick sort by WAR3 (WAR the past 3 years) and the top names left for batters are damn familiar - Chapman-Teoscar-Kiermaier-Gurriel - from 11.3 bWAR to 7.8 over the past 3 years for those 4, the only one ahead of them is Ohtani who is signed but I guess they haven't updated yet (Candelario also still on the list, but down at #8). 7's over the past 3 years are Michael A. Taylor & Justin Turner. 6's are Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Adam Frazier, and J.D. Martinez. Below that you get guys worth less than 2 WAR per year over the past 3 years which is rarely attractive outside of weird cases like #30 Cody Bellinger (3.9 due to a bad 2021/22, net -0.5 bWAR, then a 4.4 last year).

For pitchers there are 3 with 10+ WAR the past 3 years - Julio Urías, Brandon Woodruff, Clayton Kershaw. 9's are Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery. No 8's, 7's are Marcus Stroman, Tyler Mahle. For the rotation I'd have trouble going any lower outside of Japanese pitchers who are 'wow' there (see Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga who has been forgotten somehow but could be a very solid 3-4 year guy). Plus there is a new wild card out there - Roki Sasaki has asked to be posted, rumors are he has a clause that allows him to force it and he would just be paid via the IFA rules, not unlimited, ala Ohtani when he came over. Just entering his age 22 season with a 1.90 ERA over 3 seasons, 303 IP - damn that'd be nice to get, 13.4 K/9 last year with just 1.7 BB/9 too. His team will probably fight it, but if posted he has to be posted by the 15th and probably wouldn't sign until after January 15th when IFA budgets get reset. Odds are he'd go to a west coast team, but if he comes over you know everyone would try to convince him they are the right team for him including the Jays.

At first I thought Urias was tempting, then I looked him up - domestic assault cost him a chunk of last season so I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole. Brandon Woodruff has an injury in his right shoulder (cost him the playoffs) otherwise he'd be tempting. Kershaw would only play for the Dodgers or maybe the Rangers (his hometown team). So for a 'lets make the rotation killer' we are down to Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery, Stroman, and Imanaga. Maybe. I'd only sign another starter outside of Yamamoto if someone was after one of the Jays starters in a trade for a quality 3B or OF. Mainly because I'm nervous having 2 slots for Kikuchi and Manoah (I don't fully trust either given 2022 and 2023 respectively) and don't trust White and Tiedemann to cover more than a handful of IL starts. Mahle isn't a realistic option as he had TJ surgery in May and will be out for most of 2024 ala Ryu in 2023 - so he might be a nice 2 year deal guy given how well things went with Ryu, but there is a lot of risk there plus he wouldn't help until August at the earliest most likely. Still, it would be nice to have someone ready then to fill in if an injury or ineffectiveness thing hits again like with Manoah this year.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 07:07 AM EST (#440758) #
Well Eugenio Suarez (3B) & Jarred Kelenic were available very cheaply and with no longterm commitment.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 07:30 AM EST (#440759) #
Other than Ohtani, Atkins and Shapiro have kept quiet. But I am sure that they have a plan.

Coming off the books is about $60mil I believe. Ryu, Chapman, Belt, KK, Merrifield and Cimber. I have no info on Arb salary increases for 2024. 1 big bat seems crucial via FA or trade. Other teams also need to improve. For example Texas probably adds both or either pitching or hitting. This reduces FAs.

Throwing money around can help (Texas) or not (NYM).

Can the current roster compete for a playoff position? I strongly believe that they can. I also think signing Chapman could hurt the team because he "has" to play everyday and if his O is similar to last year we have a weak O.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 08:23 AM EST (#440760) #
Giants matched the Dodgers offer for Ohtani. So really it was about him going to Dodgers at highest price he could muster.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 10:31 AM EST (#440767) #
As discussed the Ohtani contract was driven by tax considerations. The Giants, Dodgers and even the Cubs would fall under the same tax regime.

Canada has a different tax system and the tax advantages of his new contract might not have been available to him up north.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 10:46 AM EST (#440769) #
As a Jays fan I like the latest rumor - that the Dodgers are in talks to get Glasnow and Margot from the Rays for Ryan Pepiot (153 ERA+ over 78 1/3 ML innings as a spot starter, reliever, but just a 4.76 FIP) and outfielder Jonny Deluca. Anything to weaken the Rays, if it makes them stronger in '26 and beyond so be it, as 24/25 is the Jays window right now. I do worry a bit about Pepiot but his age (entering age 26 season) and minor league record and ML usage suggests he is a 5/6 starter not a 1/2 like his ERA+ suggests. Deluca has never been a top 100 prospect and is entering his age 25 season with just 24 PA in the majors - most innings are in RF but a lot in CF and LF too.

If that is all the Rays get for Glasnow & Margot I'd be surprised. But never underestimate the Rays ability to find gems where others see coal.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 11:52 AM EST (#440770) #
Bowman draft beer and Topps baseball cards are releasing a series of cards depicting future baseball stars and have made a few commercials promoting them. One of them features Tom Brady, who was drafted by Montreal one year in the 15th round, dreaming that he played baseball with the Expos. It also has Vlad Guerrero Sr., Larry Walker, and Pedro Martinez sitting at a table in a bar saying stuff like, " We never would have won 7 championships without him," and " If he hadn't been here, they would have taken the team out of Montreal."
Ducey - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 11:52 AM EST (#440771) #
Well Eugenio Suarez (3B) & Jarred Kelenic were available very cheaply and with no longterm commitment.

Suarez had an OPS+ of 101 last year and led the majors in K's 3 of the last 5 seasons, including the last two! He struck out 30.8% last year. He is 31, so what you see is what you get.

Kelenic had his best season last year with an OPS+ of 109, but he struck out 31.7% last year (Chapman who most of us hate watching swing through pitches was 28.4%). 253/327/419 from a corner outfielder is not so exciting. He is going to be 24 so maybe he will improve. He has an OPS+ of 85 in SEA. So far he has not shown much.

Bottom line is that its not clear either of these guys is much of an improvement over what the Jays have internally, and its a little early to be settling for them, when there are better players out there. Teo or Lourdes would be equal to or better than Kelenic and they cost nothing in terms of prospects.

Chuck - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 12:05 PM EST (#440772) #
Anything to weaken the Rays

We saw what a heavily injured and weakened, Franco-less Rays looked like late last season. It's hard to fathom such a team competing, especially with Glasnow presumably leaving. I say this as a fan of the organization and fully cognizant that they have been dismissed as dead numerous times in the past. If this were the "bring out your dead" scene, they would indeed be lying on top, claiming not to be dead yet, but not convincingly so.

greenfrog - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 12:34 PM EST (#440773) #
Rosenthal listed Yamamoto’s suitors. He didn’t include the Blue Jays. I’m offended…
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 12:55 PM EST (#440775) #
Tampa Bay Rays Isaac Parades would look good at 3rd base for Toronto.  (Parades is a Super 2.)  These Tampa players have a certain toughness.

Choose one between Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernández?  Gurriel Jr.
92-93 - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 12:56 PM EST (#440776) #
The Rays went 28-15 without Wander Franco. Never underestimate their ability to field a quality squad for bubkes.

Bellinger 12/264
Chapman 6/150

The Jays should be nowhere near Bellinger and Chapman at the price tags predicted by MLBTR.
scottt - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 01:03 PM EST (#440777) #
Arozarena trolled the Rays with a picture of himself and Othani from the World Baseball Classic.

scottt - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 01:14 PM EST (#440778) #
With Bellinger, the price might be less a deal breaker than the 2 draft picks it would cost.
Bellinger won a silver glove playing in centerfield. He's only 28. Chapman will be 31.
They could try to bat him 3rd between Bo and Vlad.

Chapman is looking like he should hit in the bottom of the order.

Polite Nate - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 05:54 PM EST (#440781) #
Jays are in a spot this year. Without Ohtani, if the team plays the same this year as they did last, I don't think there's anything in free agency that pushes them over the top. If the core position players can rebound a year or so, I don't think anyone in free agency is really needed.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 06:24 PM EST (#440782) #
As much as I'd like Bellinger I don't see the Jays coming close to that price, nor anyone else really. Yeah, there isn't a lot on the market but $200+ mil for a guy whose 2021/22 were disasters (0.8 fWAR total) then a 4.1 last year (nice but not 'wow') who is entering his age 28 season isn't tempting. 5 years at $25 per ($125 mil) - sure, but much more than that is a no go imo, he might get 5 years $30 per with an opt out after 2 or 3 years but that is the best I could imagine ($150 mil).
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 13 2023 @ 06:52 PM EST (#440784) #
Keith Law seems pretty positive about the Lee signing. He says (in part) that "given Oracle Park’s spacious right field, he should stick with his typical approach of putting the ball in play and hope his new home ballpark gets him some extra doubles and triples over the course of the season. I do think the high contact rate will hold up, as his hand-eye coordination is elite and he’s certainly seen plenty of velocity, with the better quality of breaking stuff here the most likely challenge."

He also thinks Lee could start out in CF but "should end up in a corner by the midpoint of this contract."

As I've been saying for a while, I would have liked to see him end up in Toronto.
greenfrog - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 07:20 AM EST (#440806) #
Dodgers acquire Margot and Glasnow (who is expected to sign an extension) and $4m from the Rays, in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca.
dalimon5 - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 09:25 AM EST (#440808) #
Yes, apparently the Dodgers operate in a video game world with "Override" capabilities on signings, budgets and trade refusals...
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 09:47 AM EST (#440809) #
Just saw TV host Jamie Campbell (or doppelgänger) walking down the street.  How sure?  Pretty sure.

Likewise, about a year ago, saw radio host Jeff Blair (or doppelgänger) who was stealing free parking at the supermarket.
scottt - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 10:01 AM EST (#440810) #
Last I saw Campbell was his post with half his face burned out by "pre skin cancer" from driving his car on sunny days.
bpoz - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 10:03 AM EST (#440811) #
I can't blame any team for making moves in the off season. That is quite normal IMO. FA signings and trades. When the time is right I expect the Jays to also make moves.
John Northey - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 11:35 AM EST (#440813) #
As a Jays fan I'm always happy to see the Rays get weaker for the upcoming season, even if they are stronger in the future. Glasnow being out of the AL is a good thing for the Jays.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 11:45 AM EST (#440814) #
Glasnow pitched 120 innings last year which was the most he's thrown since 2018. It could be a risk giving a 30 year old pitcher whose had frequent injuries a 5 year contract at 27 million per annum. In any case, I will be strongly supporting whatever team plays the Dodgers in the playoffs.
85bluejay - Friday, December 15 2023 @ 05:11 PM EST (#440823) #
The Rays got the best years of Chris Archer, then turned him into Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz - Got a couple decent years from Meadows and turned him into Isaac Paredes who has already had a couple of productive years - got some productive years from Glasnow and have turned him into Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca - Keep on trucking Tampa Bay and do what you do so well.
lexomatic - Saturday, December 16 2023 @ 10:52 AM EST (#440834) #
If Luzardo was maybe available for Pasquantino +,
I wonder how much + would it take for Horwitz + ?
Would Manoah+ Horwitz do it? Is it too big of a loss on Manoah? Seems like Jays want him gone, so if that package works I'd do it, but no idea what more would be enough.
Horwitz seems to have the contact skills Marlins FO craves at the moment.
dalimon5 - Saturday, December 16 2023 @ 11:44 AM EST (#440836) #
I think that offer would definitely get it done. Jays also have Roden and Barger with similar on base skills as Horwitz.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, December 16 2023 @ 02:02 PM EST (#440840) #
Michael - Saturday, December 16 2023 @ 04:51 PM EST (#440841) #
Ohtani's press conference draws significantly more viewers than the most recent world series:

"The past World Series averaged 9.1M viewers per game over 5 games ~ 45.5M viewers total

Todays Dodgers press conference introducing Shohei Ohtani drew 70M"


His new jersey sales have already broken the 48-hour record for sales (any sports - beating Messi to Inter Miami) from

So both these show that again there is a baseball on the field ROI from these contracts but there is also an off the field ROI from his contract that make the $700M (~$460M if you use the discount rate for deferral that the salary cap does) have multiple ways to work out.

Shows that in additional to
ayjackson - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 10:52 AM EST (#440843) #
I would say as an aside that the discount rate used for salary deferral purposes under the CBA is not realistic in terms of how Ohtani or a corporation like Rogers would look at it.

Ohtani would gladly take $460m today and invest and be way ahead of the $700m in 20 years.

Rogers' cost of capital is probably in the 10-12% range, though I haven't evaluated it in years.

Timing of taxes is an unknown variable.
scottt - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 11:58 AM EST (#440845) #
The rate used is completely real because it's the actual rate at the moment.

There's a good chance that inflation is somewhat lower over the next 10 years.
Let say it averages 3% and Othani makes more and the Dodgers pay more, but for luxury tax purposes it's 46M per year for 10 years. Some of the projections for Othani were over 500M, albeit for 12 years.

The talk is that Yamamoto could be getting over 300M with a second meeting with the Mets and Yankees.

I am not sure where the cost of capital comes into play when you defer payments.
It just shows in the book as a future liability and  you typically don't do anything about it.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 12:03 PM EST (#440846) #
The New York Post reports that " Yoshinobu Yamamoto had dinner on Saturday night at [Mets owner] Steve Cohen’s Connecticut home. "
ayjackson - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 01:08 PM EST (#440848) #
The cost of capital is the opportunity cost of deferring payments.

Tax aside for now, Ohtani would opt for $460m today, invest it at a reasonable return of 8-10% and be way ahead of where he'll be under the current structure in 20 years.

Similarly, by deferring payments, an Owner will deploy the saved capital elsewhere and return say 10% per year.

4.43% is almost a risk free return. (long bonds are around 4%)
Mike Green - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:04 PM EST (#440849) #
And when you combine that with the marketing advantage for the Dodgers, it's a pretty sweet deal for them.  Ohtani presumably sees a huge marketing advantage for himself to be on a club that is perpetually winning.  And hence the Friedman clause.  I guess he's seen enough from his time in Anaheim to realize that it's not enough to be playing aside Mike Trout.  It will all work out fine for both parties unless Southern California is rocked by major natural disaster(s).  I wonder what is insured, and on what terms. 
Gerry - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:17 PM EST (#440850) #
Lourdes Gurriel Jr is signing with the Diamondbacks on a three year deal.
Gerry - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:19 PM EST (#440851) #
$42M for three years.
vw_fan17 - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:19 PM EST (#440852) #
Gurriel is reportedly resigning with the Diamondbacks..
Mike Green - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:28 PM EST (#440853) #
Lourdes had the best year of his career defensively in 2023, according to DRS, UZR and Statcast's OAA.  He must have made fewer of the head-scratching plays than we became familiar with; maybe leaving the Barrio was good for him. 
bpoz - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 02:51 PM EST (#440855) #
Very happy for Lourdes.
ayjackson - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 03:59 PM EST (#440862) #
It's fine to be happy for Lourdes, but I object to being "very" happy. He's a millionaire ballplayer overall, and there are likely dozens of other people in our lives to be very happy for.
Mike Green - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 04:25 PM EST (#440865) #
AYJ, is your namesake in his very late dotage going to enter his blue period? If he's going to do a reverse Picasso, may I suggest also that he skip Cubism?

Happiness, even to an extreme degree, was permitted at da Box. And as far as I know the One Note Charlie/Negative Nancy admonitions have never been applied to Gleeful Gus/Ecstatic Elizabeth.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 04:27 PM EST (#440866) #
It’s a nice contract for Lourdes and the D-Backs. He offers a limited ceiling, but a high floor, and he’s not getting paid all that much. He’s still relatively young (just turned 30), so he should have at least a few good years left in him.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 04:30 PM EST (#440867) #
Let’s hope the Blue Jays fumble their way towards ecstasy this off-season. That does seem to be the game plan.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 04:53 PM EST (#440868) #
So basically the D-Backs are getting four years of LGJ and six-plus years of Moreno in exchange for four years of Varsho.
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 05:10 PM EST (#440869) #

“Jeff Passan
Since the Arizona Diamondbacks went to the World Series, they have:

- Signed Eduardo Rodriguez for four years, $80M
- Re-signed Lourdes Gurriel for three years, $42M
- Traded for Eugenio Suarez

They're planning on adding a power-hitting DH.

Win, then improve. How it should be.”
bpoz - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 05:42 PM EST (#440871) #
Belt could be a good DH option for the D backs. So far they have made good moves to be in contention all year.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 06:24 PM EST (#440872) #
" Let’s hope the Blue Jays fumble their way towards ecstasy this off-season. "

Hail Mary!

dalimon5 - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 08:49 PM EST (#440873) #
"So basically the D-Backs are getting four years of LGJ and six-plus years of Moreno in exchange for four years of Varsho."

Or "D-Backs are getting four years of a guy everyone else passed on in the league and six plus years of Moreno who arrived and performed earlier than anyone expected, for four years of Varsho who underperformed but was the best player in the deal."

Whatever your opinion is, the deal was done by the same guys who traded Austin Martin and SWR for 9! Years of Berrios...
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 09:05 PM EST (#440874) #
It’s true that the Berrios trade was a good one (and a deft way to salvage the failed Stroman-for-SWR-plus-Kay trade).

The merits of the Varsho trade will be clearer in a couple of years. Right now it’s too early to draw conclusions. One thing we do know is that Arizona has the advantage in terms of controllable years, and that Moreno has set himself up well after a successful 2023 postseason. Moreno took a step forward in 2023, while Varsho took a step back.
dalimon5 - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 09:53 PM EST (#440876) #
Moreno becoming a top 5 catcher in year one makes it hard for Jays to win this trade. A bit of a gong show to go from "if Moreno makes our team it will likely be as a super sub or OF" to him now hitting in the middle of the ARZ line up, growing into this power and being one of if not the best defensive catcher and caller in the game (back ups excluded).
greenfrog - Sunday, December 17 2023 @ 10:08 PM EST (#440877) #
Maybe the Jays are planning to wait out the free agents, then grab a couple (Bellinger and Chapman) when their demands moderate a bit.

Guessing they are on to plan C or D at this point.

Had the Jays replicated the D-Backs’ off-season (Rodriguez, Suarez, LGJ, plus likely DH addition to come—JD or Turner), they would actually be in decent shape for 2024, at a reasonable price.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 04:31 AM EST (#440878) #
The Jays are the rumoured front runner for Bellinger, or they're being used as a patsy again to drive up the price for the other team hot after him, the Cubs.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 09:31 AM EST (#440882) #
Oh man I would be very disappointed if they signed Gurriel, E-Rod and traded for Suarez. Would rather they just use internal options like Barger, Palmigiani and Tiedeman.
greenfrog - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 09:47 AM EST (#440883) #
I get that logic, but I think it would be better to acquire those three players (who, along with someone like JD Martinez, produced about 10 WAR last year) and solidify the team's chance of comfortably making the postseason again. Barger, Palmegiani and Tiedemann are unproven (and Tiedemann will be on an innings limit in 2024). In a contention year, better to view the latter players as depth that can be used at the trade deadline or in case of injuries.

Arizona is smart because those are good, solid players and the term of their contracts is reasonable.
dalimon5 - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 10:54 AM EST (#440885) #
Yeah when you put a WAR to it it makes it a strong argument. I was a bit surprised it was 10 WAR to be honest.

Tiedeman hasn't pitched a lot of innings in pro ball, but how many innings has he pitched in the Blue Jays pitching lab? 1000? I'm sure they know what his real expected IP number is and I expect it to be similar to Alek Manoah's when he first joined.
bpoz - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 10:56 AM EST (#440886) #
I presume Arizona has a good farm. Their top prospects are position players. They probably have to add pitching over the next few years unless they get pleasant surprises.

Well everyone needs pitching except maybe Miami.
scottt - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 01:56 PM EST (#440888) #
Davis Schneider produced 1.8 WAR over 35 games.

Let say they get Bellinger and J.D. Martinez to play LF/DH.
They can pluck any hot bat from the 40 roster in 2B/3B to hit 8th and 9th.

I don't see any sense in emptying the farm system to get  a bunch of average players (2WAR).
Part of developing players is to bring them up.

There are rumours that the Jays are interested in J. India.
He's an average right bat at the easiest infield position in one of the weakest division and he has a history of injuries.

dalimon5 - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 02:34 PM EST (#440890) #
If the Jays make a trade to empty out the farm it better be for players of the 3- 5 WAR category. Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Jose Ramirez, Luis Robert Jr, Dylan Cease, Xander Bogaerts, Tatis Jr, Christian Yellich, Jesus Luzardo, etc

Jays top 5 WAR players were Gausman, Bichette and Chapman for the record.

In free agency you can sign either Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger ... everyone else is pretty much less than 3 WAR player.

Fangraphs projects roughly 3 WAR for a full season of Ricky Tiedemann (but they only think he will throw 1/3 so less than 1 WAR).
dalimon5 - Monday, December 18 2023 @ 02:36 PM EST (#440891) #
"Jays top 5 WAR players" should be "top 3 WAR"
scottt - Tuesday, December 19 2023 @ 09:43 AM EST (#440905) #
No Jays player made the MLB first team and Gausman was the only guy on the MLB second team.
Winter Meetings Over, Right? | 169 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.