• Below 0 WAR: 5 (Ruben Sierra, Carlos Baerga, etc.)
• 0-9.9 fWAR: 61 (Pablo Sandoval, Ellis Valentine, Tony Kubek, Yasiel Puig, Adam Dunn, Delino DeShields, Mike Greenwell, etc.)
• 10-29.9 fWAR: 100 (Willie Horton, Travis Fryman, Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Nomar Garciaparra, Bill Mazeroski, Troy Glaus, Rick Monday, Don Mattingly, Troy Tulowitzki, many others)
• 30-49.9 fWAR: 61 (Robin Ventura, Keith Hernandez, Andre Dawson, John Olerud, Fred McGriff, Dave Winfield, Ernie Banks, Gary Carter, etc.)
• 50+ fWAR: 15 (Willie McCovey, Rod Carew, Jeff Bagwell, Brooks Robinson, Chipper Jones, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt, Joe Morgan, etc.)

No guarantees that future Jays teams in the wilderness remain a luxury tax team.

The Canadian dollar recently dipped below 70 cents. There's also recent halo effects from the 2020-2023 playoff teams and the mini-renovations.

Shapiro always prefaced that payroll reflects revenue. That the money had to be there first.

If weekday attendance returns to the 10k level, the Jays may no longer be allowed to spend like a Top 10-15 club anymore.

JPR's teams of the aughts certainly were remembered as chronic 3rd place finishers. But were they known for their elite defense?

JPR was hired initially during the second wave of the Moneyball craze, in the midst of Delgado and Shawn Green leaving town over money. JP pitched that he could win on a mid-market budget like Beane with SABR magic.

This mostly materialized as drafting safe & cheap college players like Russ Adams and Aaron Hill while sticking to MLB draft slot recommendations for signing bonuses to keep Bud Selig happy and the Canadian dollar equalization cheques coming.

When this didn't work out, Rogers and Paul Godfrey let JPR sign AJ Burnett, Corey Koskie and BJ Ryan. They also traded for Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay, taking on more salary.

I suppose a younger Vernon Wells was probably a decent defender in CF, but poor Vernon lost a step fairly quickly after signing his monster 7/127 extension. The Box complained for years that the best CF on the team was banished to RF in Alex Rios, who would later be dumped on waivers to the White Sox when his power disappeared.

Rios was considered a good defender with a great arm, but he rarely ever played CF as a Jay where it could be maximized.

Koskie was considered a decent glove at 3B, but his tenure with the Jays was injured and pretty miserable. They dumped him for nothing to the Brewers to make room for Glaus, a bat-first 3B.

Lyle Overbay was considered a good defensive 1B, but the metrics never liked him as much as the broadcasters did. He probably was hyped defensively considered he was a light-hitting 1B in the steroid era of 1B boppers.

John McDonald was great at short but didn't hit enough to keep in the lineup.

They eventually trade Glaus for Rolen, who came to town for Glaus after ?he requested a trade to get off the turf. Rolen moved north with a great defensive rep with declining offensive skills and trouble staying healthy. His D was a treat to watch, but he soon requested a trade as well leading to EE coming to town as a butcher of a 3B.

Gregg Zaun and Rod Barajas did a lot of the catching. I don't believe either was great at throwing out runners. They were mostly around because they came cheap.

The JPR Jays did have some great pitching in Halladay, Carpenter, Escobar, Burnett, Marcum, McGowan when healthy.

But I never thought of them as a great defensive club.

The Moneyball iterations on the cheap in the early aughts had bullpens all picked off the scrap heap.

The Wells-Rios-Glaus-Overbay more expensive versions that came in the later years were sort of a Texas Rangers-lite slugging teams with better pitching, but still playing too many cheaper second-division players against star-studded Yankees and Red Sox clubs in an era where only a single wildcard spot even existed.

The problem with any Vlad trade scenarios is that the receiving team has the same problem that the Jays do - there's virtually no incentive for Vlad to sign an extension presently at this point and give up the ability go to the highest bidder next winter in FA.

The only incentive for Vlad to sign an extension this point is that he specifically wants to stay in one city. Which right now, despite all the fuzzy platitudes in the media, doesn't seem to be the case.

The trade-&-sign format works better for a pending FA when it's their walk year and they are leaving a team like Oakland or Tampa with no intention whatsoever of submitting a competitive extension offer.

As usual Rogers won’t invest in the team and told everyone it renovated out of its pocket. I’d like to see the lease, please. I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest those were leasehold improvements they were required to make and not the largesse of RCI- a company that didn’t get to where it is by spending half a billion dollars on installing linoleum wood floors and subway tile “updates”

I simply don't get how people can criticize current ownership for "not investing." Criticize them for whatever else you like, but in the past 4 seasons the Jays have been in the top half of spending, and the past 2 have been top 10.

One thing that Shapiro can be unambiguously commended on: he's convinced Ed to substantially open the pursestrings.

• C: Kirk/Heineman - decent, might even be top 10 if Kirk has a decent year.
• 1B: Vlad - always nice.
• 2B: Giménez - wow fielding will be fun, bat could be ugly or nice or wow, super variable expectations
• 3B: Clement - was solid in '24, hard to predict '25. I'm hoping Barger or another kid can emerge by mid-season and take over
• SS: Bo - was a lock for a 120's wRC+ and meh defense, but after last year is he anymore? Guess we'll find out.
• LF: Loperfido probably gets first shot, with Schneider platooning with him and Lukes hanging around to fill in when needed. Roden has the best projection (110 wRC+) but is unlikely to start the year here
• Varsho - wow defense, meh offense. Odds are while hurt Lukes fills in with Clase a possibility.
• RF: Springer - hoping for a dead cat bounce that makes him attractive in a mid-season trade ala Vernon Wells all those years ago. If not we'll get OK defense, OK offense probably, around a 1-2 WAR guy now. not a nightmare but not an asset either.
• DH: Wagner maybe? As he has nowhere on the field to play and deserves playing time. He might be tried out in the OF and 1B so Vlad and Springer can have DH time.
• SP: Gausman-Berrios-Bassitt-Francis-Rodriguez, solid but if injuries hit oh boy. Lets hope Manoah heals quickly, or Bloss develops, or Yesavage is a super-fast learner.
• RP: Green-Garcia-Swanson-Sandlin-Burr-Little-Pop-live body. This is the biggest question mark there is, can this motley crew be solid or at least provide good trade pieces mid-season? Guess we'll find out. Last years look rock solid going into the year and wasn't, so maybe this weak looking group will be solid? Hey, we can dream it is December.

• QO: 4 left - Bregman, Santander, Alonso, Pivetta
  • Pivetta is a solid pitcher - 1.5 to 2.3 fWAR with 140+ IP each year for the past 4 years. Kind of surprised he got a QO though, and that he didn't take it. Guys like him tend to get $15 mil a year deals, not $20+. I'd be shocked if the Jays signed him
  • Bregman - the last big gun left imo - this is a guy you can pencil in for 3-4 WAR a year, solid D and solid O. But some health issues exist and he appeared to want to stay in Houston and wanted an insane 7 year deal despite being in his 30's. On a 5 year deal I'd look at him, but not more (ages 31-35).
  • Santander - Looks like a perfect fit - switch hitting power, can play LF, entering age 30 season. Sounds like he wants a 5 year deal, but most teams offering 3 max. Jays could swoop in here ala Springer and just give more years than anyone else and accept that the last year or two will be write offs.
  • Alonso - 1B/DH, signing him would be preparing to let Vlad go. His best year by a mile was his rookie season (2019) but even then he wasn't as good as Vlad's 2 best years. I'd hesitate here, wait and see if his price goes down and then grab him.
• Non-QO so cost only cash, nothing else.
  • Profar - damn good fit, DH/LF, switch hitter, but alternatives good and bad years (wRC+ last 8 years 36-107-90-113-87-110-78-139) which makes one very nervous when predicting the future
  • Flaherty - RHSP, just 29 in '25, very good 2024, but injury issues in St Louis in 21-22, last started 30+ in '19. Could be a solid starter, but I'd want the medical team to do a deep check on him first.
  • Kim - fits the teams MO with high end defense, meh offense. Still can't believe they didn't sign him out of Korea 5 years ago. He will miss April and likely May due to injury so very limited value. Still, an interesting piece potentially. Still would be surprised if the Jays sign him.
  • Jeff Hoffman - a top rated reliever going in, but no one has signed him, nor have I read many rumors about him. I'd knock on his agents door and see what he is after. Same applies to about a dozen other relievers. I suspect some decent ones will be available for under $10 mil a season come February.

Guerrero's camp is seeing an opening for the Yankees after 2025, potentially one with the Mets should they pass on Alonso, and with Boston. And maybe with the Cubs. So yes, leverage indeed.

There's also the relatively recent history of the injury risk factor that occurred with Josh Donaldson's departure.

Where Donaldson played 3rd on Opening Day with a shoulder ailment, barely able to sling the ball across the diamond. Then had a miserable season, was traded at the 11th hour while still hurt at the end of Aug for Julian Merriweather (resulting in future rule changes) and essentially no return for a former MVP.

• Pujols: Last 3+ WAR season was age 35, last 2+ was age 42 (final season). Age 23-30 was 7.5+ WAR each season, 5.3 peak after that (at 31) 26-35 62.3 bWAR - yeah. Waaay above Vlad for quality, but worth noting the big drop after 30.
• Miguel Cabrera: 5.1 bWAR at age 33, -2.7 age 34+ (never higher than 0.2 in any year). 26-35: 48.2 bWAR. 20-25 21.0 bWAR vs Vlad 21.5 - both used at 3B but teams figuring out they belong at 1B by the age of 25 - not that it stopped either club from putting them at 3B anyways (Miggie a full time 3B his 2 MVP seasons, just 11 at 3B after that)
• Prince Fielder: Had a 2.0 at 31, career over at 32. 26-35: 13.1 bWAR - driven down by his neck injury which was very freakish and unlikely to be a factor for Vlad.
• Ryan Howard: Only had 4 years of 2+ bWAR, thus his deal never made a lick of sense. 26-35: 12.5 bWAR, his peak was 25-29 16.8 bWAR, age 30+ he never had more than 1.2 bWAR in a season.
• Chris Davis: Like Howard, his deal was totally illogical. 3 seasons over 2 WAR, 199+ K's in all 3. The red warning lights were flashing but the O's did the deal anyways. Age 30 his last positive WAR season (3.1), 26-30 his only good years 17.8 bWAR.
• Mo Vaughn: Age 30 his last 2+ WAR season (5.6) but not worthless at 31/32 with 1.8 each year, then hurt and that was it. 26-35 24.5 bWAR, but only 3 seasons before that peaking at 3.2 bWAR (other 2 were negative).

This shows that players want more than simply $$$ as we all know and that having a team with 2 players signed beyond 2026 is scary for current free agents. I can see why Burnes would not want to sign with a team that has Manoah and Rodriguez signed long term and nobody else.

Again, I think a lot of these off-the-cuff comments from players about free agency really have to be considered with a skeptical eye (or ear).

The top priorities for players (and agents) are 1) money 2) money 3) term 4) money. If the offers are close, geography, wife/family/ethnicity considerations may come into play as a tiebreaker.

But players aren't going to come out and say that in interviews. So they have to make up some BS about choosing Toronto because they wanted to pitch alongside Gausman and Manoah instead of the fact that they were offered 63 million as a late-blooming mid-30s SP.

I believe that only the most purist of Jays fans would consider the 2021 the apex of the Shapiro/Atkins contention window and "the best Jays team in recent memory".

As time fades, most Jays teams will simply be judged on a Pass/Fail for most casual fans on whether or not they made the postseason.

2020 was a wacky shortened COVID year where the playoffs were expanded to a NHL-like 8-team bracket.

The barely .500 60 game Jays club squeaked in for the 1st time in 5 years and went nowhere.

2021 was a great team with MVP-type years from Semien & Vlad. But ths Jays lost some big series against division rivals in Sept, leading to them not controlling their own fate when both NY & Bos won and eliminated them on the last day. This team was great but will ultimately be forgotten.

2022 was probably the high point with Bo, a breakout Manoah, a career year from Stripling and decent years from Hernandez, Gausman and Kirk.

The end of the 2020-25 contention run was really that Game 2 collision in the outfield against Seattle, causing concussions and blowing a 7-run lead.