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"First in war, first in peace, last in the American League."

Boy, those were the days.


This, of course, has always been a National League franchise. But they've always been losers. They spent the first 30 or so years of their existence in Montreal, as part of the 1969 expansion, and while they weren't nearly as awful as most expansion franchises tend to be (shoutout to Gene Mauch, there), their history still begins with ten straight losing seasons. In fact, the only time the franchise has had an overall winning record came on that day in April 1969 when the Expos won the first game they ever played. They went 2755-2943 in Montreal (and San Juan); they've gone 1511-1628 in Washington.

But they did win a championship in 2019, of course. That was Dave Martinez' second season as their major league manager, and he's still on the job, along with Mike Rizzo, who's been the team GM since 2009. They've had five straight losing seasons since winning their title. They're coming off consecutive 91 loss seasons, which are actually their best performances in those five years. Their run prevention was somewhat below average last season, but seeing as how they don't plan to give Patrick Corbin 32 starts this time around, I expect to see some improvement on that front. However, their run production last year was very near the bottom of the barrel (better than only Miami). Nathaniel Lowe is certainly an upgrade on Joey Gallo, but he's not enough to fix that problem. And yes, that's former Jay Paul DeJong playing third base. DeJong was a Cardinal from his first day in the majors, back in May 2017, until he was traded to Toronto in August 2023. Since then, he's played in 173 of roughly 220 possible games, and he's done it for the Blue Jays, Giants, White Sox, Royals, and now the Nationals. His head may still be spinning.

The Nationals do have some interesting young players, starting with the double play combo of shortstop CJ Abrams and second baseman Luis Garcia. Enormous young left fielder James Wood had a very nice rookie season a year ago at age 21, and you do figure that a guy that big is going to hit a few baseballs over the wall at some point. I'm not an enormous Jacob Young fan, but he's young, he's fast, he's... he's like Myles Straw but better. The Nats like to run - it's not really something Martinez' teams have been noted for in the past, but last year's Nationals led the majors in stolen bases. They probably won't do that again, but Garcia, Abrams, and Young will challenge Kirk and Heineman.

Matchups

Mon 31 Mar - Soroka (0-10, 4.74) vs Francis (8-5, 3.30)
Tue 1 Apr - Williams (6-1, 2.03) vs Berrios (16-11, 3.60)
Wed 2 Apr - Gore (10-12, 3.90) vs Gausman (14-11, 3.83)
Washington at Toronto, 31 March-2 April | 163 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kelekin - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#458010) #
I think Washington will be a lot better than people think, though probably still 4th in the division. Gore has a shot at some Cy Young votes. Parker is solid. A fully healthy Soroka could be dangerous. I think they're maybe pushing Crews a bit too fast just due to the pedigree. He was far from dominant in the minors. Abrams will keep getting better.

The Jays really need to win the first two games of this series.
scottt - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#458011) #
Every team has some good players, that's why they still manage to win at least 60.
The difference is the number of holes in the lineup, pen and rotation.
Usually, if you don't let the good players beat you, you're ok.
uglyone - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#458012) #
lineup is up for today.

5gms in, here's how the starts have been distributed:


* Guerrero (5): 1B 5
* Bichette (5): SS 5
* Giminez (5): 2B 5
* Santander (5): DH 3, RF 1, LF 1
* Wagner (5): 3B 3, DH 2

* Alejandro (4): C 4
* Springer (4): RF 3, CF 1
* Roden (4): LF 3, RF 1

* Lukes (3): CF 3

* Clement (2): 3B 2

* Schneider (1): LF 1
* Heinemen (1): C 1
* Straw (1): CF 1



- Santander in every day, but more as a DH than an OF. I wonder if he's injured at all or if they just think Springer is better out there and doesn't need rest.

- Wagner has started every game, with the majority of starts at 3B. Looks like they want him to win the 3B job.

- Springer has been given one day of rest but in RF and CF in the rest. One of the games he started in RF he ended up moving over to CF to end the game.

- Roden starting in 4 of 5gms so far, and came in to pinch hit in the other one. They're clearly hoping he can start this year.

- Lukes with 3 starts in CF to Straw's 1 start. Lukes looks like the guy they want as the bench OF when Varsho is healthy, not Straw. Though with Springer getting some looks in CF it's possible that neither will be needed. Straw the last man on the roster thankfully.

- Clement with 2 starts, both at 3B. But he's also come in off the bench in 2 other games. I think they prefer him as a utlity IF rather than the starting 3B, which is good.

- Schneider only the 1 start, though he's come in as a pinch hitter too. But it looks like he'll have to earn everything he gets this year. He's not viewed in the same way as Wagner/Roden at the moment.
Glevin - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#458013) #
Happily surprised with how much they are playing Wagner. Team needs guys who can get on base. Jays haven't yet faced a lefty which obviously would change a couple of players.
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#458014) #
I do wonder when Varsho comes back how they handle it. I'm guessing Lukes goes down and Straw stays due to Straw having high end value in PR/defense, low value with the bat while Lukes is middle of the road in all. Thus Lukes more useful when playing everyday or nearly that, but off the bench Straw has more value.

Wagner 118 OPS+ so far, Roden 32 (ouch). As others have said, Bo looks to be back - leads the league in hits, 0 SO, 234 OPS+ all very nice. Just hoping Kirk can hold up to the heavy workload he'll get.
92-93 - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#458015) #
It's pretty obvious that Springer is a better defender than Santander, so no surprise there.

Wagner made a really good play at 3B the other day. I had just tuned in to the broadcast and thought it was Clement.

Straw is a better bench fit than Lukes. He's a faster runner and a much better defender. There's little reason to carry Lukes once Varsho is back. As I've said a few times, you don't want the last bench spot getting ABs anyway.

Schneider still couldn't lay off the high fastball in his one start. He needs to figure that out if he wants to become viable again.

Hoffman is likely down tonight, but Garcia and Green should be good to go.
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#458016) #
Looks like the Jays were lucky they didn't win the Profar sweepstakes this past winter. He is suspended for 80 games for PED use, and Atlanta owes him $15 mil for '26 and '27 on top of half his pay for this year ($12 mil - so they owe $6 mil). That explains why his offense recovered so well last year, and doesn't bode well for his future given his age and history.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#458017) #
Bullet dodged with Profar. Phew.

Wagner seems to have a knack for hitting. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
Magpie - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#458018) #
There's little reason to carry Lukes once Varsho is back.

I think Straw's speed, defense, and being RH keeps him safe for the moment so it's between Lukes and Roden, a couple of LH batters, for the last job. I don't think they want both here once Varsho returns. I assume that right here right now is the audition, and Roden will either seize this major league job or go back to AAA to get lots of ABs. Lukes isn't someone they're trying to develop - he's going to be 31 in a few months, he is what he is - but Roden might be. Not that he's a spring chicken himself.

Spring chicken? Where does that come from? Any farmers in the house?
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#458019) #
Watching Gimenez is like that scene from When Harry Met Sally…”I’ll have what he’s having.” (Hopefully not PEDs.)
christaylor - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#458020) #
It's OK to admit that we Jays fans may be allow nice things and the FO.might have known what they were doing when they traded for him.

He's not going to continue at this pace but the offense is gravy given how his D looks like it will live up.to the hype and then some.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#458021) #
Right now Gimenez looks like a great buy-low move by the front office…as does Bowden Francis.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#458022) #
I like this lineup tonight with Varsho swapped out for Luke’s.

I really like Will Wagner moving forward as well.
John Northey - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#458023) #
Weird with Francis - another 5 no hit innings to start a game. One of these days you gotta figure he's going to get it as he just keeps doing this. Much like with Stieb all those years ago.
Magpie - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#458024) #
Angels and ministers of grace defend us.

It's the bullpen.
greenfrog - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#458025) #
Enter Sandlin.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#458026) #
Easton Lucas warming up? Yariel, Green and Yimi should be available.
electric carrot - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#458027) #
Schneider starting the season batting Giminez fourth is the most badass thing I think I've ever seen him do. Did he know?
92-93 - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#458028) #
The first time the Jays are over .500 since April 24th, 2024. Relish the moment!

Once Schneider left Francis in as long as he did, you know that a few of the RP were down for the night.
lexomatic - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#458029) #
Just saw the news aboit Profar. Glad we did not sign him. Did not see the PED fail though.was it an open secret, and why he only got offered so little?
scottt - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#458030) #
Profar has never had two good seasons in a row.
That was not going to happen.
The PED thing never crossed my mind.
uglyone - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#458031) #
Francis being just passably mediocre for us is very very huge. Him being good would be ahuge bonus. Him being unplayable would maybe be fatal.

Nice start tonight.
scottt - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#458032) #
Francis was barely over 80 pitches.
The was velo was down about 2 mph in the 6th.
It's a great first game.

Washington had a  weird lineup with 3 right bats at the bottom.
Garcia came out and blew them out. Little is generally OK with the lefties.
It's the switch hitters that made me nervous.
uglyone - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#458033) #
I still don't get why:

* a. Anyone wanted profar after a career year at age 31
* b. Why people still insist the club wants to play straw over lukes when lukes is far better and is playing far more than straw.
SK in NJ - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#458034) #
Wagner as a competent 3B improves the team significantly. Big fan of the platoon they have going at 3B for now. Hopefully it continues. Also nice to see Springer off to a good start.

I'd also prefer Lukes on the roster over Straw, even in a role where he doesn't hit very often. At least if you are forced to put a bat in his hands he wouldn't be completely overmatched like Straw would be. With that said, Lukes is definitely going down to AAA when Varsho gets back. They acquired Straw for a reason.
lexomatic - Monday, March 31 2025 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#458035) #
I'm not sure. I could see Roden going down. Lukes is not young, and he doesn't need to play every day. Him and Straw could sit & not really have their career potential affected. Mayne later in the year Lukes gets sent down, released, or traded to a team that can give him an opportunity to do more.

Totally an aside, but Lukes feels like he would fit on the Marlins. Also the kind of player TB keeps 3-4 years with 250-400 ABs then trades while the player kind fades away.
Michael - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 03:18 AM EDT (#458036) #
It is obviously super SSS but did anyone have the following order for Jays by OPS:

1. Heineman (1.666 in 1 G)
2. Gimenez (1.399 in 5 G)
3. Springer (1.004 in 5 G)

Pretty obvious, right?

Also, Vlad looks ok with hard contact and all, and SSS, but a 686 OPS isn't exactly the platform he'd want for a $500M or $600M contract. If at the end of April his OPS is still around 700, does that make it a possibility he accepts the Jays offer in season?
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#458037) #
Lukes was in the Rays system...

I see Lukes as the odd man out because he's a lefty. Straw fills in for Varsho as a righty. And you also have the lefty swinging Barger and Loperfido in AAA.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#458038) #
I don't really care Lukes VS Straw and would prefer Barger to both with Springer and Roden covering CF if needed. Jays really should be looking to trade an OF though. There is a glut at AAA/majors. It's early but feels like team is a starter away right now. Offense has holes, fine but it's pretty decent I think. They scored a bunch of runs without any HR's from their best hitters. Middle relievers aren't great, also OK. I think Green, Garcia, Hoffman is very good and Little/Swanson/Sandlin is fine so if starters can go decent distance, they'll be OK. They can go get a guy to pitch some innings but I'd also be fine if they traded real value to get a better starter although don't think many teams are in selling mode yet (except maybe Marlins).
jerjapan - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#458039) #
Ah, you guys having been betting against Lukes for years now.  At this point, I think the depth chart remains clear, and if it's a coin-flip anyway, well, demote the guy who already banked millions.  The Jays FO does seem to try and do right by players. 

I think it's clear that they will always have a legit defensive SS and CF option on the bench.  It remains to be seen how the minor league catching depth plays out but they seem to have a type for 3rd and 4th string catcher as well, veteran leader / defense types, and view those slots as best kept fungible. 

Same for the pen.  Yarborough was not fungible.  You are on the hook for his full salary.  You maybe can't commit to the player, in terms of role.  A guy like Nance might clear waivers, adding to Buffalo depth.  More flexibility.  No more Vogelbachs.  The 'bulk' innings are going to come from Bisons and be cycled through like crazy.  

I don't think Fluharty is in that category though, he's an actual relief 'prospect'.  Promoting him and cutting Lovelady fast was the right move, and overall, I think the Jays are making the right moves - playing Wagner and Roden in the field, DHing Santander, all the substitutions.

We had four dreadful appearances from guys I hope to never see pitch for us again, but otherwise, I'm happy so far.  We have a lot of volatile outcomes for players, so Bo and Francis last night is great news.  

I loved that Dan and Buck were going nowhere near the topic of a no hitter yesterday when I turned the game on in the 4th inning.  If Francis looks like the guy he was at the end of last season?  I mean, that run was unsustainable, but Francis is still a huge wildcard.  I felt the same watching him this year and I did on his run season - how does he do it?

I remember another fringey / older guy who went on a tear at the end of a lost season and changed his career.... 

Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#458041) #
Fangraphs Jays top-40 is up. Lots of interesting things in it. Summary seems fair to me "Toronto’s system has average top-end and overall depth, but at this exact second, it’s probably a little below average because so many of the higher upside pitchers are currently injured."

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#458043) #
If at the end of April his OPS is still around 700, does that make it a possibility he accepts the Jays offer in season?

Probably not. Last April 31, he was hitting 229/331/347. Even on May 31, he was at 287/384/403 - nice, but not superstar numbers.

I think Vlad wants to see free agency one way or another. He may end up signing with the Jays, but not before he sees what other teams will give him.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#458044) #
thing is, Marc, Varsho doesn't really have a platoon split and he's an everyday guy anyways. And of course Straw can't hit lefties regardless.

and then you're leaving yourself with a bench of just righties (Schneider, Clement, Straw) other than the switch hitting Heinemen who you're not ever gonna want to use for offense anyways.


92-93 - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#458045) #
A bench of righties is fine. They aren't pinch hitting for Guerrero, Bichette, Kirk, and Springer (yet) anyway.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#458047) #

The Jays have traded DFAd reliever Nick Robertson to the Astros for High-A pitcher Edinson Batista, an “also mentioned” on the Astros prospect top 40 (FanGraphs). Poor surface #s last year as a swingman but reports are good sinker maybe he can build on. Org depth.

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) April 1, 2025
Magpie - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#458048) #
you guys having been betting against Lukes for years now.

Why stop now?

Straw is probably the new Bradley Zimmer - useful for little more than ninth inning defense and pinch running - but it's a different skill set than what you get from Roden and Lukes, who for all intents and purposes are the same guy. When Varsho returns, I expect the team to take one from that pile and one from the pile of Straw.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#458049) #
why take 2 from the "good" pile when you can take 1 from the "good" pile and 1 from the "bad" pile instead?
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#458050) #
Springer in CF today again. Roden RF. Wagner DH. Clement 3B.
scottt - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#458051) #
One entry I find interesting in the fangraphs list. 
13. Angel Bastardo 
"...Bastardo had arguably the most upside of any Rule 5 pick in 2024 as a nasty late-inning reliever"
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#458052) #
Former closer David Bednar has been optioned to AAA and catcher Jason Delay has been designated for assignment by Pittsburgh. Both would make a lot of sense for Toronto. Maybe for Pop (still in DFA limbo) and Davis Schneider? Lost their 2B to injury and could also platoon with Suwinski in LF.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#458053) #
I'd take a chance on Bednar if Jays think they could get more out of him but Delay makes no sense to me. 30 YO good D, no hit C. Just keep Heinaman who give you essentially the same thing but already has familiarity with the pitching staff and you don't need to give up an asset for.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#458054) #
Rumour is Jays already have handshake agreement with 13 YO Angel Montas for massive signing bonus in 2028. International signing system is so broken.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#458055) #
Source?
mendocino - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#458056) #
Angel Montas

https://www.threads.net/@rh7__prospectos/post/DBFkNC-uxtF
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#458057) #
Thank you. Is it common for 13- and 14-year-old future IFAs to have handshake deals with MLB organizations to sign with them in 2-3 years?
mendocino - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#458058) #
Yes, the Yankees have an agreement with 2 2030 prospects for around $11 mil
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#458059) #
where do I look up something like:

"how many times did the jays string together three hits in a row in 2024?"
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#458060) #
"or 4 in a row??"
Nigel - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#458061) #
Not just the results but 4 great ABs in a row.
Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#458062) #
Amazing bunt by Wagner but previous posts are right. A string of great abs which we almost never saw all last year.
Eephus - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#458064) #
I’ll second the thumbs up on that great bunt from Wagner. I’m also curious if anyone else has noticed the peculiar way Wagner runs: the way his arms go is like an excited child rampaging through a puddle. It’s quite endearing.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#458065) #
I think i have a crush on Gimenez already.
Nigel - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#458066) #
That was a heck of a turn by Gimenez on the DP.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#458067) #
I think i have a crush on Gimenez already.

He plays a brand of second base we haven't seen around here in twenty years. That DP pivot... mercy!
Glevin - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#458068) #
I also noticed the odd way Wagner runs. His arms are out to the side on a peculiar child-like way.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#458069) #
Montas has a Vladdy/Josh Naylor body type at the age of 14. He's list as 3B/RF but almost surely is a future 1B. Already maxing out at 102 mph exit velos and throwing 90 mph from the OF.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#458070) #
Pete Walker with some expert coaching there!
christaylor - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#458072) #
I know it's early, but I'm beginning to think that the team will be fine without retaining Vlad and Bo. (NB I hope they can convince both to be Jays in 2026 and beyond.)

I second the motion to crush on Gimenez. He just fits my platonic ideal of what the Jays ought to have a 2B. I'm glad the FO realized that it's a position less fungible than they treated it last year.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#458073) #
Relief pitchers.

I have The Fear.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#458074) #
Not sure about Kirk's pitch calling there unfortunately.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#458075) #
Good to see a Vladdy walk after chasing early in the count.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#458076) #
Fluharty did well against the heart of the order in a one run game.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#458077) #
Yes Bo! I'll admit i had little faith in him getting it done there. Huge.
christaylor - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#458078) #
Maybe Bo paying Bo to stay at market + a Toronto incentive (assumption: Jays will have to overpay for top FA) and letting Vladdy leave for an overpay is an underrated option.

I don't think this idea has ever been discussed on this site.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#458079) #
Was a cold (off the bench) Davis Schneider really a better choice than Roden in that situation — against a power lefty who can climb the ladder? Doesn’t Roden have about even R/L splits?
lexomatic - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#458080) #
I don't think this idea has ever been discussed on this site.
Chris Black has.
I'm ambivalent, but it could be a better value play.
christaylor - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#458081) #
I dunno... I am coming around to the idea thar dollar per WAR, Bo might be a better bet than Vlad over the next decade.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#458082) #
Bringing Davis Schneider into the game in that situation against a reliever throwing 98 mph led to the most predictable strike out imaginable.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#458083) #
Another nice professional win.

This one a nice object lesson in the value of just getting on base. Get enough guys, keep pressure on their defense, and you're likely to force a break or two eventually.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#458084) #
4-2 with Vladdy and Santander not doing much is a pretty good record.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#458085) #
"Maybe Bo paying Bo to stay at market + a Toronto incentive (assumption: Jays will have to overpay for top FA) and letting Vladdy leave for an overpay is an underrated option."


If we assume that both Vlad and Bo are still on the team at the end of the 2025 season, then I think the above might have a better chance of happening. I just don't see a huge market for Bo a year away from a lockout and all the big market teams aside from the Dodgers being set at SS (either with expensive existing options or prospects ready to take over). Bo doesn't strike me as a player the Dodgers would give ~$200M to either. I don't think Bo is going to age particularly well on either side of the ball (hitting/defense) but you could certainly make the argument that he'd be a more reasonable long-term signing if it's something similar to the Willy Adames contract than signing Vlad for $500M would be. If it's Vlad versus Bichette + Naylor (for example), then you could certainly argue the latter being the better investment (at least it would be shorter).
Magpie - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#458086) #
Was a cold (off the bench) Davis Schneider really a better choice than Roden in that situation

Probably not, and I don't really believe in Davis Schneider to start with. But if you're going to have him on your team, hitting in that spot right there is kind of what he's there for.
scottt - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#458087) #
Also, if Schneider is starting tomorrow against a lefty, might as well give him an AB here.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#458088) #
Yeah i don't blame Schneider really, that guy looked nasty, especially when he started to get those borderline strike 1 calls.

I'm still surprised Bo was able to get decent contact on that defensive swing but then again that skill is exactly what makes Bo a bit different.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#458089) #
Schneider’s career K rate is about double that of Roden. With runners on second and third and one out, I think I would rather see Roden hit in that situation. If he makes contact, there is a good chance the Blue Jays come away with at least one run. With Schneider, the chances of a K were very high because he was entering the game off the bench, his career K rate is high (over 31%), and there was a power pitcher on the mound who could pitch up in the zone (Schneider’s vulnerable zone).

The overriding goal in that situation was to score and win the game, not prepare Schneider for tomorrow’s game.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#458090) #
I'm more upset about the clement bunt with a RISP and no outs tbh.
greenfrog - Tuesday, April 01 2025 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#458091) #
Scherzer had a cortisone shot in his thumb. Looks like he’s going to gut out as many innings as he can reasonably manage.

Wonder how many innings he’ll end up with this year. 80? 100? 120 is probably about the best-case scenario. I’ll guess 96.
Kelekin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#458092) #
Looking at shortstops around baseball, there aren't many teams with a poor SS that are big spenders. Houston and Detroit are the likeliest. But...that's really it. If he's willing to move to 2B, then the Dodgers are an option.

It would be funny if in the end, after the years-long developmental focus on middle infielders, that we just end up re-signing Bo.
Michael - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#458093) #
If you go back a year and a half a lot of people were thinking Bo was the better bet than Vlad. But last year with Vlad being great again and Bo being awful, that stopped that line of thought.

I'm still in the camp that hopes we sign both.
StephenT - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:47 AM EDT (#458094) #
Joe, I think I heard them say tonight that Lucas was throwing on the side Monday to set him up to start Wednesday (with Gausman switching to Friday, Mets home opener).
Glevin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#458095) #
I think Bo is likely going to age very poorly. His skill set just doesn't age well. If he has a great year someone will pay him of course but hard to see it being the Jays. Vlad... Honestly, I'd just wait until after the season at this point. I think Jays are most likely to sign him but he also needs to come understand his market better.
scottt - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 08:33 AM EDT (#458096) #
He said he had a cortisone shot around October and it was effective. They last about 6 months.
The difference is that he wasn't pitching this winter.

Right now the ETA for Varsho is right after the road trip.
Swanson and Burr won't be back until May. 

The 2 teams we've seen so far had too many lefties to use Burr effective. 
The Mets will be a bit different.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#458097) #
Bo and Vladdy would be great to have on the team for the next five years. Whether they should be signed to a long-term contract (10+ years) for top dollar is questionable.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#458099) #
I wish the desire to avoid paying guys in their mid-30s would have factored in as an opportunity-cost and bigger incentive to trying to get them signed longterm in their early 20s.

Because sure the last years on whatever deals they sign now will be ugly, but that didn't have to be the case, so now any talk about "value contract" is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#458100) #
For those like me who have only being paying attention to the Jays, there are a few surprises in the standings so far, even though it is early. The LA Angels are 4-1, the Atlanta Braves are 0-6, and while it is no shock that the Dodgers are 7-0, the Padres are hanging right with them at 6-0.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#458106) #
A 3-3 game in the bottom of the 8th with first and 2nd, no outs, and your #8 utility player up = perfect time to bunt.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#458110) #
yeah i dunno, sacrificing an out to possibly move the winning run from 2nd to 3rd will never sit right with me tbh.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#458111) #
For what it's worth, both statcast and fangraphs win probability metrics thought Clement's sac bunt helped the Jays - 75.4% win probability to 77.4% for statcast; 76% to 77.6% for fangraphs.

Now, of course, that doesn't consider other possible outcomes - Clement nearly popped into a double play, and there can be base hits, errors, the defence can get the lead runner at 3rd. It also doesn't consider the matchups following the bunt. All that said, there's at least a prima facie reason to believe it was a good move.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#458112) #
On the other hand, Clement already snuffed one potential rally with a GDP, and hit another groundball with people on base earlier. (He snuffed another potential rally the other day after actually getting on base, which is also not optimal.) He may be a danger to himself and others.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#458113) #
I think I would have felt better about the play if, say, Bichette had been on deck to try to cash in at least one run for the Blue Jays. Watching Schneider bat against Ferrer did not inspire confidence that he would be able to get the job done (he ultimately struck out, which is hindsight of course).
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#458114) #
This is purely impressionistic, but John Schneider doesn’t seem to have had much success in the last few years when he asks his players to bunt.
Kelekin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#458115) #
"I wish the desire to avoid paying guys in their mid-30s would have factored in as an opportunity-cost and bigger incentive to trying to get them signed longterm in their early 20s.

Because sure the last years on whatever deals they sign now will be ugly, but that didn't have to be the case, so now any talk about "value contract" is a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy."

100%. Of course, we'll never be privy to contract talks and whether they had them in those years. But the reality is if you sign Vladdy now, you do it knowing the last few years will most likely be like the Pujols/Cabrera situation and can hamper the franchise. But both those contracts were signed at 32-33, so they already had so few years left.
Kelekin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#458116) #
Interesting way too early statcast data:

Springer with 14.3% Barrel Rate/PA
Gimenez .440 xwOBA
Bichette .429 xwOBA
Springer .423 xwOBA
Schneider .323 xwOBA (despite no hits)
Roden 27.5 ft/s Sprint Speed
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#458117) #
the stats look good for George but I have to say even the good ole' eyetest looks pretty great too.

he looks like himself again.

of course, at his age, that's hard to keep up for a whole season. with our depth and hopefully varsho healthy we should be able to rest him more tho.

I know he's had a bad trendline the past couple years, but imho absent a clear and specific physical issue, I think it's actually less common for a player to end his career on a perfectly downward trend than it is for him to bounce up and down around that lowering trendline for his last few years. A bounce back up to being a solid hitter again wouldn't surprise me at all.
Cracka - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#458118) #
I think John Schneider was hoping that the Nats would go to the pen once Davis Schneider was announced - they had Lucas Sims warming up and we had Nathan Lukes ready to pinch-hit for Schneider - and that's a really favorable matchup for getting the run home.

Last season, the sac bunt attempts seemed to come in the most predictable situations and many times the batter would square very early, giving the defense a really good jump on the play. Yesterday seemed a bit better...

Not sure what to expect from Easton Lucas today - Schneider said last night that he could go 75-80 pitches, but that seems optimistic given his track record. The Nats have LH batters in the 1, 4, and 5 spots today, so maybe the plan is for him to get through these guys twice today before turning it over to the pen.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#458119) #
Unless someone can convince me that Vlad was open minded and not stubborn in his very high self-evaluation of his value I won't pretend like the Jays could have signed him cheap earlier in his career. People point to Tatis' contract which was huge at the time but reasonable now, but the market going crazy the last few years is an exception not the rule. There have been very strong free agent years combined with generational players and very rich owners joining to league coming off "cheap" years post pandemic. I don't think anyone could foresee that a 300 million + contract for someone like Tatis a few years ago would become an absolute bargain just a few years later.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#458120) #
Cracka - agreed that they were counting on the nats going to the pen and then bringing in Lukes


Dalimon - "but the market going crazy the last few years is an exception not the rule.".....I really don't think that's true tbh.
Glevin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#458123) #
Jack Leiter left his start today with a blister on his finger. For those of us who remember his dad's time with the Jays, it seems fitting. I didn't know blisters could he hereditary.
Dewey - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#458125) #
This seems pertinent to the posts about bunting:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-bunting-competition-with-cash-prize-from-john-schneider
scottt - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#458126) #
It doesn't matter much how early or late the batter squares to bunt.
What matters is that he puts the ball on the ground in the right direction.
Good spots are along the lines and to the pitcher--who often is a terrible fielder.

Yeah, probably no reason to pitch to the 4 right bats at the bottom of the order twice.
Lowe is probably a tough out even for a lefty. He's 2 for 2 against Lucas.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#458127) #
Ugly, when was the last time MLB saw players with the same talents as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Yoshinobi Yamamoto, Jacob DeGrom, Corey Seager, and Gerrit Cole all joining a market depressed by closure of a deadly disease with artificially low free agent deals preceding the upcoming ones?

Never happened before and that doesn't even touch upon the influx of generational talent signed long term by teams... players like Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr and the like.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#458128) #
I think if you look over the last 30yrs or so you'll probably see a pretty similar rate of increase in player salaries over time.

the aberration would be covid temporarily depressing salaries i would think.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#458129) #
Safe or not, that's some really dumb baserunning from Clement. Sheesh.
christaylor - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#458130) #
That's two challenges that the review room seemed to get wrong. The play at the plate, and when Gimenez moved his hand on SB the other day.

I wonder if the review room has been instructed to defer more to the call on the field this year, or it's just my recency bias.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#458131) #
Yeah, the baserunning mistake meant the difference between runners on first and second with two out and Bichette up, and a bases loaded situation with one out and Bichette up (with Vladdy on deck).

Tough mistake to make in a 1-0 game against Gore.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#458132) #
Terrific first four frames for Lucas.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#458133) #
not able to watch but i see 4 hits off of Gore courtesy of......Tyler Heineman and Myles Straw.

nice.
jerjapan - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#458134) #
That was a huge start for Lucas. gotta be his best day in pro ball. Good on ya kid!
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#458135) #
I'm not sure weacknowledged how weird it was that so many jays absolutely imploded at the plate last year and we couldn't string together good at bats pretty much at all.

I think we've already had more quality offensive innings then we made in the first month last year. maybe the first two.



anyways lets see if this new bullpen can hold onto a 3 run lead to close out a sweep.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#458137) #
this new bullpen

And yet I still feel the same...
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#458138) #
er....ok then....

let's see if the new bullpen can hold onto a 2 run lead for 3 innings for the sweep!
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#458139) #
Myles Straw's hitting makes as much sense to me as Trump's tarriffs.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#458140) #
How bout Myles Straw? His 3rd hit of the game, and his 2nd double of the afternoon! Great bench piece.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#458141) #
Very well played series by the Blue Jays*

* With two innings to go
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#458142) #
Will any of the new waterfront developments be ready in time to incorporate into the parade route?
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#458143) #
UO, sounds as though you’re pretty happy with the front office’s moves over the the last while (Gimenez, Santander, Wagner, Roden, Francis, Hoffman, Yimi, Lucas, Sandlin, Scherzer, Heinemann).

Maybe Atkins is starting to figure out this general managing thing…?
92-93 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#458144) #
I would not use Hoffman for the 4th time in 5 days with a 3-run lead.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#458145) #
I agree I would have rested Hoffman. The only counter that I can give is that he hasn’t been taxed in any of his outings.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#458146) #
Hey i thought the roster was pretty good! Just not great, as per usual. And now with vladdy and bo at risk.

It would definitely be nice if we had many overachievers this year as we had underachievers last year tho. That would make for a fun year.

but come on let me have some fun without actually having to take the first week of the season too seriously!
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#458147) #
uh oh.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#458148) #
Heineman gun show for the sweep!!!

SK in NJ - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#458149) #
Agreed, I would have extended Green a bit and used Garcia in the 9th, but Hoffman threw 8 pitches yesterday, 10 today, and then an off day tomorrow, so maybe they lucked out a bit there that he didn't labor at all.
92-93 - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#458150) #
"What a day for Tyler Heineman!"
uglyone - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#458151) #
This ship is sailing!
Glevin - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#458152) #
Nice win. Jays are 5-2 despite Vlad and Santander not doing much at all. It actually feels like bench guys are pushing for more playing time too. I mean, play straw and Heineken. They deserve it.
scottt - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#458153) #
A sweet sweep.

Great first start from Lucas.

Schneider seems to love following a lefty with a lefty.

Hoffman wasn't at his sharpest but it looks like he was happy to pick up the save.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#458154) #
and Heineken

These days I’m trying to buy Canadian products, but I’ll make an exception in this case.
John Northey - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#458156) #
Split with Baltimore, sweep of Washington, nice start to the season - currently in 1st place by 1/2 a game over the NYY and Rays. Now comes the real test - 10 straight on the road, 3 vs Mets (2-3), 4 vs Red Sox (1-4), 3 vs Baltimore (3-2).

FYI: you can tell it is really early - White Sox are in 1st in the Central, Marlins in the NL East, Cardinals in the NL Central. None will be there long I suspect. Padres & Dodgers both 7-0, poor Giants 5-1 but 1 1/2 out of first. Atlanta with AA in charge are the last winless team at 0-6, playing the Dodgers tonight.
Gerry - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#458157) #
Everything went wrong for the front office last season. This first week has been the opposite, everything expected to be bad is going well.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#458158) #
An acceptable start. As always, the timeless wisdom of Winston Wolf sounds in my head.
greenfrog - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#458160) #
The one unhappy development has been Scherzer’s injury. But maybe the cortisone shot will help his thumb and allow him to contribute for at least part of the season.

I thought Lucas looked good today. I would like to see him get more chances, whether in the rotation or bullpen.
Nigel - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#458162) #
Clement made a major mistake on the based today (as noted above) but he had a heckuva day in the field.
scottt - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#458163) #
The last time they started 5-2 was in 2011.

AA's second best season.
Ricky Romero was an All-Star.
Joey Bats hit 43 bombs.
Jo-Jo Reyes made 20 starts and Kyle Drabek 18.
The closer was Frank Francisco.
Carlos Villanueva was bouncing between the pen and the rotation and it was the dead throes of Jesse Litsch's career.

They finished 81-81.


scottt - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#458164) #
Lucas line up again against Boston. They do have lots of left bats.
Magpie - Wednesday, April 02 2025 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#458165) #
Clement made a major mistake on the based today (as noted above)

Forgot about today's goof. I was thinking of him getting doubled off first the other day.

In better news, Zach Pop has been released. And so have we, from the burden of watching him pitch.
greenfrog - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 07:06 AM EDT (#458167) #
Clement hit a timely sac fly later in the game, which I though redeemed his earlier baserunning gaffe.
scottt - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#458168) #
Not sure about Pop.
He's still injured, so he gets released without going through waivers.
He will end up somewhere on a minor contract.
Maybe Buffalo.
uglyone - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#458169) #
The good start has me in the mood to look at some stats, but it's way too early for the current year stats to mean anything, so i'll look at the trusty Past 1 Calendar Year stats to see where these players are at:


Past 1 Calendar Year


* 1B Guerrero: 706pa, .341babip, 162wrc+, 4.8war/650
* 3B Wagner: 105pa, .385babip, 133wrc+, 5.0war/650
* DH Santander: 678pa, .230babip, 126wrc+, 3.0war/650
* LF Roden: 19pa, .313babip, 123wrc+, 3.4war/650
* CF Varsho: 493pa, .265babip, 102wrc+, 4.5war/650
* RF Springer: 617pa, .262babip, 100wrc+, 1.6war/650
* C Kirk: 390pa, .285babip, 98wrc+, 4.7war/650
* 2B Gimenez: 640pa, .283babip, 87wrc+, 2.9war/650
* SS Bichette: 355pa, .280babip, 77wrc+, 1.1war/650

* UT Schneider: 459pa, .255babip, 77wrc+, 0.3war/650
* OF Lukes: 101pa, .311babip, 124wrc+, 4.5war/650
* IF Clement: 458pa, .264babip, 93wrc+, 3.1war/650
* C Heineman: 23pa, .250babip, 118wrc+, 8.5war/650

* OF Straw: 11pa, .364babip, 167wrc+, 11.8war/650
* IF Stefanic: 124pa, .267babip, 63wrc+, -2.1war/650
* C Bethancourt: 137pa, .258babip, 76wrc+, 1.9war/650

* UT Barger: 225pa, .239babip, 70wrc+, -0.9war/650
* OF Loperfido: 144pa, .301babip, 61wrc+, -0.9war/650
* IF Jimenez: 210pa, .311babip, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650


Nigel - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#458170) #
At almost 12 WAR/650 the Jays got an absolute steal in Straw!
dalimon5 - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#458173) #
Fill your team with 9 players that hit like Varsho and you will win the most games according to WAR calculations. Fill your team with hitters like Santander and you will win less games.

Roster balance accounts for nothing with WAR stats. If I'm a SS or 1B with exceptional defensive ability my WAR will not be reached if I play beside an elite defender who ranges further.
John Northey - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#458174) #
dalimon5 - that would be an interesting thing to study - did it help or hurt the total WAR having two similar players (mostly defense) beside each other or did it help? We had Varsho & Kiermaier side by side for 2 years. In 2024 the Jays were #1 for defense in the majors - 4th in 2023 according to FanGraphs. By DRS the OF in '23 was at 45 (#2 was the Padres at 23), in '24 the Jays tied for 1st with Boston at 48 (#3 Milwaukee at 37, everyone else 18 or less). In '22 the Jays sucked though at -6 for 21st (Gurriel/Zimmer/Bradley Jr the only positives, Springer and Tapia both -4). Over 23/24 Varsho had an insane 57 DRS, Kiermaier 28 (incl time in LA). Inbetween them was Doyle (Colorado) at 30 - it clearly didn't hurt Varsho one bit statistically on defense, and Kiermaier being 3rd best in the majors by DRS over those 2 years despite having as much time off as he did (560 fewer innings than Doyle) suggests he wasn't exactly hurt either. Now, a 'WOW' 3B and SS might have more crossover (easy to see a 3B stealing a lot of chances from a SS) but even there how much would there be as a 3B stealing chances from a SS would probably be taking very difficult SS plays away I'd guess. 1B I don't see hurt by a WOW 2B as he plays in front of the 2B so would steal from the 2B.

Be good to look at crossover zones and how often one player takes stuff from the other. Also can't help but wonder if Varsho shot way up in LF due to a much weaker set of players against him vs what he now sees in CF (or will see once healthy).
GabrielSyme - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#458177) #
You have to love the Straw and Heineman value projected out to a full season.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#458178) #
I don't think I'd noticed that Kevin Pillar made another opening-day roster, now for the Rangers, making just $1m. After 6 ABs, he's hitting .500.

Although he's no longer a particularly good outfielder, offensively he's basically the same guy he's always been - he's even projected slightly higher than his career average at age 36.
uglyone - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#458179) #
Pillar >>> Bradley Jr.

always and forever.



(and i now see Devers getting the Boston Reputation Inflation too and people clamoring to trade for him. Don't buy the Boston Hype Inflation, ever. Devers projects out as a Santander level player. Good, not great.)
92-93 - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#458180) #
How did Vladdy not get a ribbie for that grounder to SS yesterday? I don't like the official scorer assuming an out there with Straw going on contact, even if a good throw likely does get him.
christaylor - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#458181) #
Pillar v. JBJ -- 16.4 war is approximately equal to not much, much greater than...so I disagree. They both had one 5 WAR season, JBJ had 5 2-3 WAR seasons to Pillar's 3 2-3 WAR seasons. So, yeah, that's hometown bias and hype, which is fine. I got tired quickly of Pillar flailing at sliders outside. The hole in Pillar's swing was big enough to drive a truck through, and JBJ could take a walk.

I don't know about the Red Sox corners of the internet (I just checked to see if Sons of Sam Horn still exists, and indeed it does happily), but the baseball fans that I play softball with, the acquaintances I've made at our sponsre bar, and couple of knowledgeable neighbors all never much saw Devers as on a trajectory of the Boston Red Sox greats, or even one of the era's greats.

There was more grumbling about letting Xander "slip away" (good move) and still grumbling about trading Mookie.

Crochet and Bregman generated enthusiasm this year, and the fans are high on the farm system, but there's skepticism among those who follow the team in depth rather than root for laundry.
John Northey - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#458183) #
For fun at the moment the AL Central has 5 teams with 2 wins each, but 4 losses for 4 teams and 5 for the Twins or they'd all be tied. Wonder what the latest point of a season is where all teams were tied or within 1/2 a game od each other.
Glevin - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#458185) #
Yarbrough shelled in first outing so hopefully the pining after him can stop.
John Northey - Thursday, April 03 2025 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#458186) #
More early season fun - the entire AL West has been outscored - each and every team has a negative run differential. The AL East is all positive, from Jays at +1 to Yankees at +21. In the Central only the 1st place White Sox (!) have a positive at +4. Baseball is weird.
Kelekin - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#458189) #
It was Yarbrough's 2nd outing. He threw a scoreless inning a few days ago.
uglyone - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:45 AM EDT (#458190) #


* Barnes: 2.1ip, 15.43era, 2.40fip, 4.50xfip
* Lovelady: 1.2ip, 21.60era, 8.23fip, 11.17xfip
* Yarbrough: 1.2ip, 21.60era, 13.03fip, 8.17xfip

scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#458191) #
I forgot Yarborough after Lucas' outing. Lovelady is harder to forget since he earned a loss.
John Northey - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#458192) #
Basically guys fighting for the last 2 slots in almost any pen tend to be 'blech'. If you are lucky you get a series of good outings like the Jays did from yarborough last year, then fans fall in love with him (see Jay Jackson for an earlier version). These guys rarely keep it going though. I'm as guilty as anyone for falling in love with guys like that - they are just so fun to cheer on. Lucas now fits into that group, when in truth I should be hoping we get lucky and he has 1 or 2 more decent starts before Scherzer returns. It is very rare a 28 year old figures it out, but if he can be useful for a few weeks woohoo. I figure we'll see lots of churn at the bottom of the pen. Lucas will move there if his other starts go decently although with 2 options left he might just go down instead to keep stretched out.

In these days of 8 man pens how critical is it to have a long guy anyways? Unless they expect just 4 innings from Max each time for now in which case keeping Lucas around might be a good idea thus dumping Barnes (no options). Fluharty has 3 options so he might be yo-yoing. Little (2 options) and Sandlin (3) are the only other option guys in the pen and I can't imagine Francis will be using his final option this year.
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#458193) #
I see Barnes as a placeholder.
Swanson bumps him as soon as he's ready which is probably in May.
Burr? Hard to predict. He's tough on right bats but most teams have few of those.
Tate is the same but he has options.
Still, there's no point in having Burr on the 40 roster if you're not using him.
So maybe Burr gets the first shot at it and gets tossed if he fails.
dalimon5 - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#458194) #
I'd take a chance on Adam Ottavino just released by the Yankees. Nice durable arm to provide insurance for the bullpen.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#458196) #
I don't think anybody mentioned it, but two young stars signed long term deals with their respective teams recently. Kristian Campbell, age 22, signed an 8 year, 60 million contract with the Red Sox while Jackson Merrill, age 21, signed a 9 year, 135 million deal with San Diego.

I guess this provides security for them and they will earn more yearly when they're younger, but it seems to me that if they become very good ball players that they will be underpaid at the end of their contracts, especially if salaries start to take off. The Blue Jays seem averse to signing their good, young players to long term extensions and that leads to the Vlad and Bo situations.
GabrielSyme - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#458197) #
Not getting extensions done with Vlad and Bo was disappointing but perhaps unsurprising.

Having extended Kirk - who was the player I most wanted to see locked up - I think the remaining candidates for an extension are Varsho, Francis, Wagner and Roden; and I don't know that there's an overwhelming case for extending any of them. Varsho is a couple months away from 29 and under control next year. He's probably the best candidate, but I think an extension for someone so reliant on defensive value is a little riskier than most - and he vastly outperformed his xwOBA last year too. Francis, Wagner and Roden are none of them particularly young, they are all under control for six years, and none have particularly long track records.
dalimon5 - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#458199) #
"The Blue Jays seem averse to signing their good, young players to long term extensions and that leads to the Vlad and Bo situations."

The Nationals seem averse to signing their good, young players to long term extensions as well since they couldn't sign Soto.

The Orioles seem averse to signing their good, young players to long term extensions as well since they couldn't sign Rutschman, Holliday and Henderson.

The Mariners seem averse to signing most of their good, young players to long term extensions as well since they couldn't sign Kirby, Gilbert or Woo.

The Reds and Pirates are the worst not having locked up Elly De La Cruz or Paul Skenes.

If only the Jays weren't so cheap and averse to signing elite elite talent that can get whatever they want whenever they want...
greenfrog - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#458200) #
Nimmala might be the next significant extension candidate (after Vlad and Bo). Maybe the Blue Jays can do an early-career extension with him if he continues to show star or superstar potential.
Ryan Day - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#458202) #
At least the Rays were able to lock up Wander Franco long term...
scottt - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#458203) #
Varsho has most of his value in defense. He's here for another 2 years and we need to see how healthy he is.
Francis is not young and nobody can predict how his career will unfold. There's no need to talk about extension until he's 1 or 2 years away from free agency. 

Vlad has been the best 1B in the league.
Bichette is not the best SS in the league or even in the division.
I just went through a top 100 player ranking that had Vladdy around 17 and didn't have Bichette at all.
Gerry - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#458206) #
Looks like Lovelady cleared waivers and has been assigned to Buffalo.
Waveburner - Friday, April 04 2025 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#458212) #
"Vlad has been the best 1B in the league."

In '21 and '24, yes. In '22 and '23, not so much. Even if he wasn't so inconsistent from year to year, players with Vladdy's body type have historically aged terribly. And it's not as if the front office hasn't tried. I don't understand the complaining about not having extended him. Plus coming from a wealthy family his situation is different from most other players.
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