No game today, my love has gone away.

Rained out, DH in July.

Given how Baltimore lit up Berrios, I think the Jays should push Berrios back, and have him start against Atlanta. Baltimore's lineup is more lefty-heavy than Atlanta too, so there's another advantage to having Lucas throw on Sunday.

No game today, my love has gone away.

That would explain why you're not playing. But the other guys?

Must have been an easy decision given the state of the Orioles rotation.

A few notes from around the league:

-Boston lost 11-1 to the White Sox. This pleases me greatly. (Was this cosmic justice for what Manny Gonzalez did to the Blue Jays yesterday?)

-The Yankees lost 9-1 to the Giants. Jung Hoo Lee, a player I liked as a free agent target two off-seasons ago, is off to a strong start this year (.340/.404/.596). But this may be largely BABIP-driven (.395 in 2025 versus .273 last year).

-Yarbrough sighting! In the Yankees game, he went 2.2 scoreless innings, 1 hit and 1 walk allowed, 3 K.

The first-place Blue Jays (yep) should win two this weekend. Winning is good. Winning is enjoyable.

So it was Manny Gonzalez that umped that atrocious game yesterday, I was wondering who he was to watch for him in future games. Bad guy numeral uno for me shades of what was his name Angel Hernandez or something. Interesting, possibly both Hispanic hmmmm

Yep glad Boston got pounded today also, there does appear to be a baseball god after all.

I wonder when the last time both the Jays and Leafs were in first place in their respective divisions at the same time for a stretch of multiple days..

I think the Blue Jays have a shot at winning a WC spot and maybe even the division if they can stay fairly healthy. They have some issues to address, but their AL East rivals all have some flaws and/or significant injuries.

ESPN notes that the Yankees rotation "has a 5.46 ERA, worst among the 30 teams. Max Fried has a 1.56 ERA, but Carlos Rodón is at 5.19, Will Warren at 6.00, Carlos Carrasco at 7.71 and Stroman at 11.57." Stroman went to the hospital after yesterday's start to get his knee checked out.

They just need to keep an eye on the Yankees at home with their .967 OPS vs .714 on the road... I think they do something to the balls at home. All teams have a humidor now that the balls are kept in to supposedly maintain a consistent quality but the home team has control/access and also gets to chose what balls get our to the home plate umpire.

Balls just don't act like that in the weather they had at the start of the year. Everyone thought it was the new bats but my money is on the balls especially given how different the Yankees hitters looked at home vs on the road.

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/mlb-standardizing-ball-rubbing-and-removal-from-humidors

I noticed a similar stretch a couple of years ago where the exact same thing happened. They're smart enough to not do it consistently but the previous time was also at a time when they're were dealing with major injuries.

Was it proven that Judge (and probably Ohtani) were getting different balls? I know it was speculated. Reminds me of when writers accepted that McGwire was just using creatine.

Stroman was really lit up last night for the Yankees -5 runs in the first inning. He has previously said he wouldn't pitch out of the bullpen so that may be a problem for them.

I just assume the Yankees are cheating - humidors, different balls, illegal bats, PEDs you name it!!! All kidding aside, I just assume the Yankees are cheating:)

I assume it’s easier for the Yankees to cheat because MLB is so invested in having that cornerstone franchise remain highly marketable and popular. A major scandal could hurt MLB revenues, so they are incentivized to look the other way when it comes to cheating. They even provided Judge with special baseballs with extra travel late in his home run chase season.

Plus, under the current President, cheating, self-dealing and unethical behaviour has become normalized in society, which might contribute to an attitude of indifference on the part of MLB.

Watch that step from inferring behavior in sports/games to politics, it is a doozy. Heck, I may even agree! It's still good to relax and not assume the worst; cynicism is bad for your health and is far too often mistaken for wisdom.

But, for baseball and the Yankees -- there are a lot of those "special" baseballs out there. A large sample of which could be tested scientifically. That's an awfully silly way to cheat, to leave behind that amount of evidence to not even break a record of any importance.

Because taking steroids wasn't cheating.

The source of "If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying" is attributed to a professional wrestler, often, but the spirit of the quote has lived on in baseball since its earliest days.

A little blank verse:

Not pitching where the batter requested it.
Was that cheating?
First gentleman to throw a curveball.
Was that cheating?
Outfield crowds moved "the fence" back and forth depending upon whether their home team was up.
Was that cheating?
Ty Cobb, who was always trying, went in with sharpened spikes first.
Was that cheating? (Ouch!)
The MLB gentleman's agreement had a skin color test.
Was that cheating? (No, something worse!)
Greenies, Gaylord Perry, and all the rest...
Was that cheating?

I think it's interesting looking at the AL East and considering the depth of other teams, as we often feel the Jays don't have a ton of "depth" (outside of left-handed outfielders and second basemen).

The Yankees showed last year that they were a top-heavy team, and when injured they were in trouble. It feels the same this year - high ceiling when everyone is healthy, but a couple of injuries and they're done for. Funny to imagine how their rotation would look with King and Holmes. Their AAA starter depth is quite weak, though Messinger and Boyle are quite interesting. Hitters are a crapshoot.

Boston is fascinating. They drafted well during Bloom's tenure, and progression from any of their young guys will set them up well on the offense side. Anthony and Mayer are in AAA, and their AAA rotation is full of guys with past MLB success: Fulmer, Bello, Giolito.

TB has an absolutely scary rotation (and that's without McClanahan). Seymour, Rock, and Workman is huge for their depth. Hitting wise though, there's no help on the way, and if their offense continues to underperform, they will be fully dependent on their pitching.

Baltimore - offensively, we already know. They're the inverse of TB. They have tons of young, good hitters, with more on the way. I wouldn't be surprised to see Weston and Young end up getting a crack at the rotation this year, but beyond that they're hooped.

I feel Boston is the team that can most weather the storm of injuries in the division, and wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division either.

Stroman has been placed on the 15-day IL. The Yankees rotation could be pretty weak during their April 25-27 series with the Blue Jays.

chris, agreed that relaxation and optimism are both important (hey, I predicted a contrarian 89 wins for the Blue Jays this season!).

Always good to see the Yankees get a bit snake bit. Now if Judge goes down they are in really deep trouble.

I think we now know how much orange is too much orange.

Very good PA by Wagner T1 against Sugano. Even though he ended up lining out to end the inning, he battled and made Suguno throw 10 pitches for a total of 25 first-inning pitches. That could help the Blue Jays later in the game.

attaboy anthony!

Francis is pitching a great game so far.

Isn't it on the 1B coach to yell to Vladdy when he goes too early?

The wind must be blowing in hard in RF across the inner harbor.

"The wind must be blowing in hard in RF across the inner harbor."

The radio guys have mentioned the strong wind a few times so far.

A lot of wasted opportunities for the Jays may come back to haunt.

"A lot of wasted opportunities for the Jays may come back to haunt."

I feel that I have seen this sentiment expressed by various commenters approximately 150 games/year for the past 2 decades. Talk about consistency!

John Schneider is always the last guy to realize his starters are gassed. Francis looked done at the end of the previous inning.

Vlad with a boneheaded base running decision which cost the team a run, and now dropping a routine catch at 1B which led to the O's taking the lead. Hopefully he has like a decade of 160 wRC+ seasons.

epic at bat by Lukes.....but i can't help feeling he just set up our 6th dp of the night.

That was a very 2024 Jays loss.

Just an embarrassing loss.

That was a good game that they lost. No issue with the managing really. Need another big arm in BP.

As Magpie predicted, there will be pain during the season. This was a painful loss. There will be more of them.

Bowden Francis has now made 13 starts since moving into the rotation for keeps at the end of July. Here's the first hit he's allowed in each of those starts:

 
Date     Batter     Team Hit Inning

29 July  Cowser     BAL   HR  1st
7 Aug    Santander  BAL   HR  1st
12 Aug   Moniak     LAA   HR  3rd
18 Aug   Busch      CHC   1b  4th
24 Aug   Ward       LAA   HR  9th

29 Aug   Sogard     BOS   1b  6th
4 Sep    Schwarber  PHA   HR  1st
11 Sep   Lindor     NYM   HR  9th
18 Sep   Semien     TEX   2B  1st
24 Sep   Story      BOS   2b  2nd

31 Mar   Abrams     WSH   HR  6th
6 Apr    Lindor     NYM   1b  1st
12 Apr   Kjerstad   BAL   HR  5th

Seems a little strange.

That is a lot of HR as the first hit, but the numbers overall are still very, very good:

81.2 IP, 73 K, 42 H, 15 BB, 13 HR, 22 ER, 6 HBP, 302 TBF, 2.42 ERA, 0.698 WHIP.

So sure, he's given up more HR than average (around 1.4 HR/9 with average around 1.1), but all his other stats are much, much better than average (except maybe HBP). But even if you counted his HBP as BB for WHIP that would still only make it a WHIP of 0.771.

So I'm not sure that there is a "problem" with HR, or if this is all small sample, but whatever it is, the mix is certainly working well.

Yeah, I don't think it's a problem. I just think it's weird.

Basically when he first has trouble it is big. He is aggressive around the strike zone, which makes hitters get anxious and feel a need to swing (often guessing what he is going to throw), when they start guessing at what he is going to throw - and right kaboom, but wrong is a swing and a miss. Today was a case of the manager being too locked into the 100 pitch thing instead of seeing Francis was losing it quickly at the end of the 5th, gone by the time the 6th was going. Should've had someone ready to come in quickly instead of waiting.

"John Schneider is always the last guy to realize his starters are gassed."

John historically has been raked over the coals for pulling starters too soon.

I guess that's where the art and science of managing comes in. Different starting pitchers (and players generally) need to be treated differently depending on their attributes and the situation at hand. It's not easy to do well, and some are better at it than others. Applying a "one size fits all" template or a theoretical approach isn't going to work.

Yeah if anything Schneider pulls starters too soon. Often they're cruising along and then one guy reaches and then out he comes.


Yesterday though Bowden gave up the hr in the 5th (after a walk earlier in the inning), then gave up the dinger in the 6th. At that point he was arguably getting gassed and I wouldn't have opposed pulling him then, but he left him in for a few more hitters and he was continuing to miss his spots. Yes he should've been out of the inning on that grounder to short but once that happened, I definitely wouldn't have had him face Mullins.

I didn't mind Francis getting the chance to get out of that inning tbh. He's pitched well enough to like his chances there even if he was tiring.

Buck made the point during the broadcast that the O's are undefeated this year when they score 5 runs or more, and are winless when they score fewer than 5 runs. Unfortunately, that metric held true yesterday as well.

If I was Schneider I don’t think I’d be in a hurry to get to my bullpen. I‘be seen their work.

That sure felt like a ball a competent RF should have caught but you would need to see where Santander was playing Henderson to know for sure.

Looks like scott’s suggestion to skip Berrios this series (after the rainout) was a good one.

You mean Gabriel's.

Good suggestion *Gabriel*.

Interesting decision to use a reliever here against Springer. What would
John Schneider have done in an equivalent situation with his SP having thrown 4.2 innings and 76 pitches and his team up 4-2?

I thought it was a terrible decision to leave Springer in the game after he obviously hurt his hand. He's a competitor - of course he's going to want to continue his at-bat - but he took two more unnecessary hard swings and seemed to be in agony after the last one. Schneider shouldn't have let that happen, especially with Wagner or Roden ready on the bench.

Bryan Baker sure looks pretty good for a guy who was cut by the Jays. Constantly 98mph.

Springer could be heading to the IL here.
If need be, Barger has hit 2 HR in 11 games.

I guess $500m doesn’t buy as much as it used to.

Blue Jays being outhit and generally outplayed. Is Baltimore just a better team? What happens when the Orioles get their injured starters back?

If you check my comments from years ago, you’ll find I was never really high on Vlad. He’s probably a top shelf DH, but he doesn’t learn quickly from mistakes. Typical of us slow/no learners he points his finger outward after a blunder. He’s forever complaining about called strikes, that are most often in the strike zone. He’s a good hitter, but not a great hitter and he’s a liability in the field and on the base paths. Definitely not worth $500 million, even considering promotional value.

Just as I was looking up the last time the Jays scored three times in an inning, Buck comes through for me!

What exactly does this team work on in spring training? Has to be one of the worst coached teams in the league.

Very hard to understand what Lukes is doing in the majors at this point. That's the second atrocious baserunning mistake he's made already in somewhat limited playing time. If you can't hit, you sure as hell better not be making huge mental mistakes.

The Jays are actually significantly outhitting baltimore this series, and have more extra base hits too.

but the defense and baserunning has been heavily heavily in baltimore's favour.

"If you can't hit,"

pretty sure Lukes can hit tbh.

:pretty sure Lukes can hit tbh."

and field.




Heineman-Clement-Straw not the murderer's row you want due up in the 10th. surprise me boys.

surprise!

Hoffman already at 14 pitches coming out to close against the 2 hottest hitters in the orioles lineup with a ghost runner on 2nd.

not gonna be easy.

man Hoffman is some kinda nasty. please let his shoulder hold up for a couple years.

series split for the season split against the O's so far. all games competitive other than that opening night implosion. I'll take it.

That Hoffman guy is pretty good.
Why didn't we draft him?

Jeff Hoffman blows as a kiss to the O’s bench pic.twitter.com/OzOeYdXmr4

— Paul Mancano (@PaulMancano) April 13, 2025

"man Hoffman is some kinda nasty. please let his shoulder hold up for a couple years."


lol yeah, I have been very impressed by his ability to throw strikes and swing and miss stuff. So far, he his living up to his billing as being one of the best relievers in BB.

He is the best closer we have had in years, sorry Jordan Romano.

Bottom of the lineup is holding up well. Some hitting and a lot of good defence.

Springer's wrist injury is considered day-to-day. Might still be a good idea for the Blue Jays to rehab it properly and call up Barger for a stretch to cover for him. No sense in pushing Springer early in the season.

Jays did that a few times over the past couple of years - had guys get banged up but played with a short bench to avoid the IL stints and then the players ended up being out longer term later on anyway.

That wrist was not feeling good and is so important. Just IL the guy and bring someone up... He misses 9 games in the next 10 days and then could come back for the Yankees and Red Sox.

Get Barger's power up here and see how it plays away from the cold of Buffalo. Maybe send Wagner down, too, and take a look at Loperfido or Clase.

Who wants to go back and relook at the Romano thread when he was let go? I recall consensus was anti FO. Also the later thread about Hoffman taking the Jays for suckers since he was injury-riddled. Vengeance baby!

I think most people accepted Romano's departure as understandable given his steep decline due to injury last year. And most people liked the Hoffman signing (perhaps with a note of caution about his injury history, which seems reasonable in the circumstances).

Also, the season is only a couple of weeks old. Hoffman has been brilliant so far, let's see if he can get through another 60+ appearances healthy and strong.

Dude needs 65 appearances of elite pitching to justify the move to upgrade from Romano to Hoffman. Those are high expectations.

Sloppy win, but I only saw the condensed game. It seemed a number of bad umpire calls in the Jays favor on balls/strikes. Was that the case in the larger sample or were there corresponding calls against them too?

Well Hoffman did sign a three-year contract. And top relievers under Montoyo and Schneider have typically been called upon about 60-70 times a year, e.g., Romano 2021-2023, Mayza 2019-2023, Yimi 2021-2023. And those are regular season numbers, hopefully Hoffman gets a bunch of postseason appearances with the Blue Jays as well.

I'm a little flummoxed by the eagerness amongst jays fans to promote Barger tbh. He was truly terrible last year at the plate (worse than Bo, worse than Schneider) and in the field. He was solid at the plate in AAA last year but far from great, and he's off to a mediocre at best start this year. He's 25 yrs old, not some high upside young talent.

IMO he needs to earn everything he gets this year. Not only a good topline batting number in AAA but he's got to get those strikeouts down to a reasonable level too.

I think you'll find the Romano Release and Hoffman Signing threads mostly positive if you go back and look, dalimon!

I suggested a Barger promotion primarily as a means of allowing Springer to rest and rehab and come back strong. There’s no point to the Blue Jays taking a “he’s tough, he can play his way through the injury” approach with Springer. It’s April 16!

For those curious here are the threads:

• Romano released Marc Hulet was the first to mention it here, a lot of 'if his arm is swiss cheese then it was time to let him go' type statements. So far 6 IP 7 H 7 R/ER 4 BB 1 HR 6 SO 1 HBP 39 ERA+ 1 blown save, 1 save, 2 holds. He gave up 2 runs in his save. 4 clean games, 3 allowing 2+ runs. He isn't 100% toast but he isn't far from it unless he gets a series of clean games soon.
• Hoffman signed about half way down. uglyone first to catch it was happening, SK in NJ first to confirm (3/$33). Can't find any negatives on a quick read of it. People hoping the Jays have the budget for another bat (Santander hadn't signed yet). Only real concern was injury based (due to the O's) but I think we all agreed and still do that if he gives us a great 2025 then blows up it was worth it.

Kind of fun looking back at how we reacted to transactions at the time.

As to promotions - if they want another OF up then Clase and his 382/523/441 6-1 SB-CS line in Buffalo would make sense to call up (used in LF/CF/RF 2/6/2 times respectively). Berroa is a no-go with his 133/235/167 line, Loperfido? I doubt it at 250/341/389. Barger? 211/311/421 is meh at best and we don't need a 3B backup with Wagner/Clement being OK (not great, but OK) - Barger has been 3B/LF/RF/SS for 6/2/2/2 games respectively. Orelvis is 2 for 25 so no way he comes up. Jimenez has yet to come up to bat this season. Mike Stefanic isn't on the 40 man, is a 'plays wherever' guy hitting 314/385/371. Also not on the 40 man is Riley Tirotta, 286/375/476 at 3B/1B - he'd be the DH here most likely (RH hitter) but was hitting #9 tonight so I suspect the Jays don't think much of him.

In truth the way the team is set up right now they can easily play for a bit short a player. LF/RF is Santander, CF is Lukes/Straw, RF/LF is Roden, 1B Vlad, 2B Gimenez, SS Bo, 3B Clement/Wagner, C Kirk/Tiedeman, DH: whoever isn't playing in the field with Schneider as the bench guy.

If they do put Springer on the IL I think the call up has to be Clase. He has the best OPS in Buffalo, very good speed, and I suspect it'd be viewed poorly by the players if someone else got the call when he has clearly been the best in Buffalo unless they went for an infielder (Stefanic or Tirotta) due to the high number of OF on the team already.

The narrative was very bad at the time from what side remember but not from BB I suppose. Wilner and Exit Philosophy.

Yeah, I remember Wilner being very livid about it. Between that and Straw he was demanding blood from the front office. Luckily we have cooler heads here.

A thought to start the week off on a good note: After that road trip through New York, Boston, and Baltimore? The Blue Jays are in first place in the AL East.

Long may it continue.

Barger can play a decent RF. He's leading Buffalo with 7 RBIs. Clase has 0. Clase has 13 hits, 9 walks, 6 SB and  profiles like a leadoff hitter.
Barger has only 8 hits, but half are extra bases and 2 are homeruns. He's more like a middle of the order bat. 
Right now, for a 9 game spot, I'd go with Barger.

Clase is interesting. He's 22 but he's on his last option.

Springer is suffering from "left wrist discomfort" and the x-rays were negatives.
I'm not really convinced.

Varsho is throwing from the outfield now and should be getting into games next week.

Scherzer threw Saturday in Baltimore. So far, so good.
Lucas has earned another start.

Swanson has thrown a bullpen Friday and should be facing hitters next week.
He' recovering from "Median nerver entrapment".

Burr threw a bullpen of his own on Saturday.
He was dealing with shoulder inflammation.

A clean x-ray does not equate to a healthy wrist.

The last thing the Blue Jays need is a hobbled (but proud) Springer battling through a wrist injury in April, posting subpar numbers, and ending up with a problem that nags at him longer-term. We've seen that movie before with Springer, Bichette, and others.

I'm no doctor but arent x-rays only good for bone injuries, maybe cartilage? If it's a muscle issue, he probably needs an MRI which will quietly happen today now that they're at home.

Stats in AAA have to be taken with a grain of salt. Between canceled games/inconsistent playing time and the brutal conditions, it's been a tough go for everyone and the ball just isn't carrying at all. Considering, Barger has been decent. Clase's hits have been more of the soft, found a hole variety. And the lineup is desperate for power. Again.

Sorry for the double post but I'd also argue Wagner has looked terrible at the plate. He hasn't adjusted well. He's making poor swing decisions, has a slow bat, and everything he hits is soft.

As I said in the winter if any team thought Wagner was as good as the projection systems thought he was, then I would have traded him. I don’t see anything special about him at all outside of contact ability but the quality of contact still has to be there. It’s still early though. Barger’s exit velocity, barrels, and hard hit rate are exactly what this team needs. Yes that package will come with a high K rate but one hitter out of 13 with a high K% isn’t going to end the world.

I mean i like some of Barger's tools and upside but I just don't see why a guy with Barger's spotty track record gets the benefit of the doubt, or why we even think it's good for him to be promoted when he's clearly still having issues at his current level.

Especially when we're so eager to demote other similar aged guys with much better MLB and AAA performance than him.

"Yes that package will come with a high K rate but one hitter out of 13 with a high K% isn’t going to end the world."

The importance of a K rate isn't the impacts of strikeouts on game performance but rather what it tells us about a players exploitable weaknesses.

A bunch of jays are struggling at the plate right now but Wagner's underlying numbers seem better than those others tbh. Solid EV and barrels, lots of pitches seen, good k/bb numbers.

The guys whose underlying numbers look definitely bad so far i think are clement kirk schneider roden....but these sample sizes are too small to care about yet anywyas imo.

The Barger yearning is pretty simple - people recognize this team is starving for power, and he's flashed glimpses of it. It was obvious this team was short a bat before the season started, and the early results have only enforced that. It can be a 3B or a LF, but they need to add a masher, and the sooner the better.

If Springer is indeed down, they should just call Varsho up to DH.

Barger would be a replacement for Springer in RF.
For now, maybe playing Santander in RF would help him start his bat.
He's never hit well at DH. It's not always an easy transition.

They are pounding Wagner at the top of the zone.
It's an adjustment.
He's never going to hit a ton long balls with that short stroke.

Plausible Best Lineup using This Year's Stats Only:


* 1. RF Springer (35): 56pa, .436obp, .229iso, 199wrc+, 7.0war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero (26): 71pa, .366obp, .063iso, 118wrc+, 2.8war/650
* 3. 2B Gimenez (26): 68pa, .338obp, .207iso, 130wrc+, 5.7war/650
* 4. SS Bichette (27): 77pa, .364obp, .071iso, 118wrc+, 2.5war/650
* 5. LF Roden (25): 46pa, .326obp, .050iso, 89wrc+, 4.2war/650
* 6. C Alejandro (26): 49pa, .286obp, .109iso, 89wrc+, 1.3war/650
* 7. DH Santander (30): 71pa, .282obp, .079iso, 67wrc+, -1.8war/650
* 8. CF Straw (30): 26pa, .400obp, .083iso, 153wrc+, 7.5war/650
* 9. 3B Wagner (26): 46pa, .289obp, .050iso, 65wrc+, -2.8war/650

* X. C Heineman (34): 20pa, .500obp, .211iso, 248wrc+, 16.3war/650
* X. OF Lukes (30): 26pa, .346obp, .048iso, 88wrc+, 2.5war/650
* X. UT Schneider (26): 21pa, .333obp, .000iso, 57wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. IF Clement (29): 42pa, .268obp, .056iso, 55wrc+, 3.1war/650



Using Past 1 Calendar Year:


* 1. LF Lukes (30): 117pa, .365obp, .124iso, 122wrc+, 3.9war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero (26): 704pa, .401obp, .206iso, 166wrc+, 5.3war/650
* 3. DH Santander (30): 680pa, .313obp, .257iso, 128wrc+, 3.1war/650
* 4. CF Varsho (28): 467pa, .296obp, .204iso, 103wrc+, 4.5war/650
* 5. RF Springer (35): 606pa, .316obp, .158iso, 106wrc+, 1.9war/650
* 6. 3B Wagner (26): 132pa, .321obp, .115iso, 104wrc+, 2.0war/650
* 7. C Alejandro (26): 385pa, .330obp, .120iso, 106wrc+, 5.2war/650
* 8. 2B Gimenez (26): 646pa, .292obp, .094iso, 81wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 9. SS Clement (29): 462pa, .285obp, .136iso, 92wrc+, 3.2war/650

* X. C Heineman (34): 36pa, .417obp, .129iso, 158wrc+, 10.8war/650
* X. OF Straw (30): 30pa, .379obp, .071iso, 138wrc+, 6.5war/650
* X. OF Roden (25): 46pa, .326obp, .050iso, 89wrc+, 4.2war/650
* X. IF Bichette (27): 360pa, .294obp, .084iso, 79wrc+, 0.9war/650

* X. IF Jimenez (24): 210pa, .329obp, .128iso, 102wrc+, 1.5war/650
* X. C Bethancourt (33): 127pa, .272obp, .183iso, 91wrc+, 3.1war/650
* X. OF Clase (23): 66pa, .303obp, .082iso, 87wrc+, 1.0war/650
* X. UT Schneider (26): 450pa, .282obp, .134iso, 75wrc+, 0.1war/650

* X. UT Barger (25): 225pa, .250obp, .154iso, 70wrc+, -0.9war/650
* X. OF Loperfido (26): 144pa, .236obp, .146iso, 61wrc+, -0.9war/650




Using Fangraphs' Updated Rest of Season Projections:


* 1. SS Bichette (27): 568pa, .328obp, .151iso, 117wrc+, 3.8war/650
* 2. 1B Guerrero (26): 612pa, .369obp, .205iso, 145wrc+, 4.0war/650
* 3. DH Santander (30): 612pa, .316obp, .222iso, 121wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 4. C Alejandro (26): 387pa, .343obp, .132iso, 114wrc+, 5.9war/650
* 5. 3B Wagner (26): 397pa, .345obp, .118iso, 112wrc+, 2.6war/650
* 6. RF Springer (35): 524pa, .325obp, .162iso, 111wrc+, 2.4war/650
* 7. LF Roden (25): 391pa, .340obp, .128iso, 110wrc+, 2.3war/650
* 8. 2B Gimenez (26): 574pa, .323obp, .136iso, 107wrc+, 4.3war/650
* 9. CF Varsho (28): 505pa, .301obp, .191iso, 104wrc+, 2.6war/650

* X. UT Schneider (26): 177pa, .322obp, .178iso, 108wrc+, 1.8war/650
* X. OF Lukes (30): 76pa, .333obp, .118iso, 107wrc+, 2.6war/650
* X. IF Clement (29): 284pa, .300obp, .131iso, 97wrc+, 2.8war/650
* X. C Heineman (34): 127pa, .312obp, .094iso, 86wrc+, 3.6war/650

* X. UT Barger (25): 44pa, .314obp, .171iso, 107wrc+, 3.0war/650
* X. IF Jimenez (24): 25pa, .328obp, .134iso, 105wrc+, 2.6war/650
* X. OF Clase (23): 19pa, .302obp, .136iso, 92wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. C Bethancourt (33): 69pa, .274obp, .159iso, 88wrc+, 1.9war/650

* X. UT Orelvis (23): 114pa, .283obp, .183iso, 93wrc+, 1.7war/650
* X. OF Loperfido (26): 44pa, .287obp, .153iso, 88wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Berroa (26): 13pa, .294obp, .119iso, 82wrc+, 0.0war/650
* X. OF Straw (30): 63pa, .301obp, .074iso, 77wrc+, 1.0war/650

I'm not saying Barger is going to be any better than Wagner, it's possible that he won't be, but the Jays have way too many players who are similar in skillset (contact heavy, low K%, poor quality of contact). Plugging one in there with loud tools and a low floor vs medium floor with no real upside seems like the type of risk the Jays can afford to take given the roster construction. Best case, Barger figures something out and adds a power dynamic to the offense. Worst case (likely case?) he continues to swing and miss excessively, and you reassess, but the Jays need to get lucky somewhere. They have a bunch of AAA depth that do not project to be better than platoon options in the big leagues, so they should cycle through them until hopefully one sticks.

I’m not sure I buy into the “having a variety of types of hitters in the lineup is necessarily good” argument.

Wagner’s battling plate appearances (like his 10-pitch PA the other day) would be more valuable than a 4-pitch Barger PA resulting in a K, for example. There is value in running up the opposing SP’s pitch count.

Having power is great but it’s of limited value if you only occasionally get to it and the rest of your offensive profile is meh. I think it’s worth giving Wagner and Roden some time to see if they can get untracked.

I like Barger as a temporary replacement for Springer, if some time time off now would benefit Springer in the coming months.

One more reason to call up Barger now... we're slated to face RH starters for the next 10 games in a row (there's a TBD vs. Seattle, but they don't have any LH starters). This would be a great chance to let him start every day for a stretch (3B/RF/DH) and see what happens. Decisions will need to be made at the end of the month when Varsho comes back and Springer returns to 100%... but a lot can change in a week and a half...

the other thing is that the jays offense has been.....solid.

"This would be a great chance to let him start every day for a stretch (3B/RF/DH) and see what happens."



I still don't get why we think Barger deserves this kind of chance over a number of other guys or why we think it wouold benefit the team more, tho.

1) Exit Velocity. Small sample size, but this year he has the 2nd highest adjusted EV in AAA of 342 players with >20 PA. Last year, he was 123rd of 365 (>200 PA) in the majors. He's going to hit the ball harder than almost everyone else on the roster.... AND,

2) Spring Training: 1.162 OPS. He had a good spring and probably would have made the team if Roden didn't. So for that reason, he's the next man up.

That's all I got - I don't he's a clear cut choice, but I think those are two pretty good reasons.

I'm not optimistic about Barger's ability to hit but the simplest reason is probably that, unless you want to bring Varsho back to DH, who else would you call upon? If Jimenez were healthy he's be the obvious choice but he's hurt.

The Jays offense has not been solid. They are 20th in runs per game.

Toronto is 11th in MLB in OPS, which is pretty decent. Maybe they aren’t hitting enough with RISP?

The Jays are 9th in wRC+, but 27th in ISO. It's power, plain and simple, and I don't think there's any reason to believe that will continue.

There's a pretty good reason to believe that will continue, actually. This was not a team that projected to have that much power.

This is the worst first place team!

Last year they were 22nd in ISO with a significant portion of the season spent doing tryouts and Bo injured or ineffective. I don't see any reason to think they'd be worse this year.

I’m confused. Wouldn’t a team with a 111 wRC+ (the Blue Jays current wRC+) and lots of power be expected to be equally productive as a team with a 111 wRC+ and little power? I’ve never heard of identical wRC+ stats being ranked as superior/inferior based on power output in this way.

Seems more likely a RISP or BaseRuns sequencing issue.

Th Jays were 22nd in ISO last year, and 23rd in runs scored.

A lot of ink is being spilled defending the idea that 20th in runs scored has been “solid”. I guess we all define the word differently.

I think the point is that 16 games is a small sample size, and team wRC+ (9th in MLB) or OPS (11th in MLB) is arguably more predictive of future production than runs scored are at this point. This is because in a small sample, failure to hit in a few specific situations with runners on base (think Alejandro Kirk with the bases loaded this month) can skew the results.

You expect Guerrero to hit 0 HR this year?

think that's splitting hairs tbh.

16th in runs, 20th in runs/gm, 1 run away from 16th in runs/gm. Middle of the road run production so far any way I look at it.


fangraphs has a convenient '+' page which pegs all the major stats to league average.

* #1 ld%+
* #3 avg+
* #3 obp+
* #3 K%+
* #9 wrc+
* #11 xwoba
* #12 gb%+
* #13 bb%+
* #27 iso+
* #29 fb%+



we might never be a high-slug team but you have to think most of these ISOs will improve significantly:

* Varsho .000 (.191 projected)
* Schneider .000 (.178)
* Lukes .048 (.118)
* Roden .050 (.128)
* Wagner .050 (.118)
* Clement .056 (.131)
* Guerrero .063 (.205)
* Bichette .071 (.151)
* Santander .079 (.222)

With a couple in expected range:

* Straw .083 (.074)
* Kirk .109 (.132)

And 3 which we should expect to drop significantly:

* Gimenez .207 (.136)
* Heineman .211 (.094)
* Springer .229 (.162)

Middle of the road run production still isn’t solid if you want your team to make the playoffs, but since this conversation has veered far off course into future predictability I will leave it here.

The Jays pitching has very solid thus far though!

Just wanted to check something.


* 3.94 runs/gm (20th)

* 4.83 vs BAL
* 4.67 vs WSH
* 4.25 vs BOS
* 1.00 vs NYM


So just the one series we've struggled offensively.


NYM is the top pitching team this year so far, but that might just because they got to play us, so let's check their performance allowing runs....

* 1.00 vs TOR
* 2.00 vs HOU
* 3.00 vs ATH
* 3.83 vs MIA

they were super tough on us, but they've been tough on everyone they've faced so far.

And our other opponents....

Baltimore

* 5.33 vs BOS
* 4.83 vs TOR
* 4.67 vs ARI
* 4.33 vs KCR


Boston

* 6.67 vs STL
* 5.00 vs CHW
* 4.25 vs TOR
* 4.00 vs BAL
* 3.25 vs TEX


Washington

* 7.33 vs MIA
* 6.33 vs PHI
* 4.67 vs TOR
* 4.33 vs ARI
* 4.00 vs LAD



so the Mets are the only opponent who's pitched best against the Jays so far, or even 2nd best.