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As Shane mentioned in last night's game thread, Doug Creek is on the 15-day DL with a strained elbow, and Josh Towers is your newest Toronto Blue Jay. The skinny righty, who relies on "sneaky" control, pitched well for the Orioles in 2001 before an absolutely disastrous 2002 season. Credit Team Ricciardi for the low-risk signing this winter, as the 26-year-old has bounced back nicely with a 3.29 ERA in nine AAA starts. Both his walks (8) and strikeouts (33) are low for 54.2 IP, but he's been getting people out consistently.

The more logical replacement for Creek was Jason Kershner, who has been untouchable in AAA, so something's up. Mark Hendrickson may have been just pitching on the side late in last night's game, or he could be Creek's temporary replacement in the bullpen. Lurch's next scheduled start is Monday, against the same righty-loaded White Sox lineup he faced last time. Perhaps the plan is to let Towers pitch that game (it's certainly a different look for the Chicago hitters) and keep the big lefty in the bullpen. Obviously, I'm just speculating, but it makes some sense. The Jays brain trust knows Mark has been effective in relief, and they're still evaluating Doug Davis as a starter.


This mystery is compounded by some recent comments about impending changes to the 25-man roster. Carlos Tosca has repeated that he would like to have an extra body on the bench, and just 11 pitchers, for the six games in NL parks June 3-8. Towers, unless he makes a very strong first impression, (i.e., "this guy's much better than Jeff Tam") would likely be returned to AAA, but who gets called up? Mike Colangelo has rebounded from a slow start; he's hitting .347 with a .398 OBP and carries a great glove. It could even be Ken Huckaby, giving Tom Wilson a break from the wear and tear behind the plate, while providing the extra utility man and valuable pinch-hitter the skipper covets. The team has days off before and after the road trip, so a four-man rotation would work.

In my scenario, when Toronto resumes its AL schedule, Hendrickson becomes a starter again. They need a second lefty in the 'pen at that point, so either Creek has miraculously recovered both his health and his talent, or Kershner takes the limo ride from Syracuse, and the 14th position player is sent back down. This is all rather insignificant, I admit; you know the Jays are on a roll when the ZLC has no concerns beyond guessing who the 25th man will be next week.
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_Spicol - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#101888) #
The more logical replacement for Creek was Jason Kershner, who has been untouchable in AAA, so something's up.

Kershner is strange in that he hasn't shown the ability to get lefties out in the bigs. In fact, his splits go the other way. Admittedly, he hasn't had a whole lot of time in the bigs to confirm that what he's shown so far is reality, but it may be part of the equation.

Career vs. RHB: 221/312/353 against 77 batters faced
Career vs. LHB: 261/382/457 against 55 batters faced

I don't know his minor league stats, unfortunately. But his usage suggests that Jays don't think he would be effective vs. lefties either...he's been used as a general reliever.
robertdudek - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#101889) #
I will once again chime in in support of keeping Jeff Tam on th club. His bout of wildness earlier in the year is behind him (his walk numbers still look bad mostly because of 5 intentional walks). He remains the most difficult Jays reliever to hit a homer off of and his GB/FB ratio is the most grounder-biased among the relief corps.
_Jonny German - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#101890) #
I read somewhere that the Jays want to do something about having Davis & Lurch pitching back-to-back. The theory is that their similar styles and handedness give opponents an advantage seeing Lurch immediately following Davis. So maybe it'll just be a single start for Towers, allowing them to mix things up.
_Ken - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#101891) #
Hey, does anyone have any news on Justin Miller? What happened to that guy? Is he due to come back any time soon?
_Apparently not - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#101892) #
http://www.canoe.ca/Slam030524/mlb_tor3-sun.html
_dp - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#101893) #
That sucks- a healthy Miller would be a big help right now. Another couple of wins against the Ynaks and the Jays have legit status as contenders. If Escobar can transform back into an effective 5 inning starter and Tosca can mix the rotation effectively to maximize its strength, the team might be able to survive with the pitching they have.

My question: if it was your call, and the Jays were within a few games of 1st around July 20, would you trade a prospect or two for some rent-a-player pitching help? Would you go for a cheap, mid-range type like Pedro Astacio or bust the farm up a bit more trying to get a top-flight guy? Beane seemed good at upgrading the future while contending- he ripped the Mets off a few years ago with deceptive deals. I'd like to see if JP has the same skill.
Gitz - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#101894) #
I have to agree with Robert on this one: Tam deserves to stay on the club. I said I would admit I was wrong, and here it is. If Tam can keep it up, he'll help the Jays.

I will add, however, that Tam's GB/FB ratio is not as valuable on the Blue Jays -- who have a mediocre infield defence and who play on turf -- than it would be for a better defencive team who doesn't play on an artificial surface.
Gitz - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#101895) #
As for Beane "ripping off" the Mets, you can't really fault the Mets for trading Long, who had never done much in the minors, and Isringhausen, who, to say the least, was injury-prone. It's not like the Mets traded Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson.

Where Beane deserves credit is for turning Isringhausen into a reliever, realizing that because a player cannot succeed in one role does mean he cannot succeed in all roles.
Pistol - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#101896) #
"would you trade a prospect or two for some rent-a-player pitching help? Would you go for a cheap, mid-range type like Pedro Astacio or bust the farm up a bit more trying to get a top-flight guy?"

Besides Minaya overpaying for Colon it didn't take a whole lot to get a top player in a trade last year - Ray Durham being the best example. I think you can make a move for this year and improve down the road at the same time.

I would be in favor of trading one of the New Haven OFs for a top player (Colon?) that would yield a couple first rounders when they signed with a different team after the season. That'd improve you for this season, and improve you down the road if you could convert the picks into players. With Wells locked in center, and F-Cat likely to stick around after this season, there's only 1-2 spots for Werth, Gross, JFG, and Rios. If you could flip 1 first round talent for 2 first round talents at positions of need it seems like an easy decision.

I wouldn't be in favor of giving something up for a mid-range type player, unless it was essentially giving up a non-prospect.

At the same time, if you could move Stewart or Escobar or perhaps Lidle for a top prospect you would have to do that as well.

The focus has to remain on 2005 and beyond, but that doesn't mean you can't improve the team at the same time this year.
_dp - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#101897) #
"As for Beane "ripping off" the Mets, you can't really fault the Mets for trading Long, who had never done much in the minors, and Isringhausen, who, to say the least, was injury-prone."

For, IIRC, Billy Taylor, the 38-yr-old "closer"? As a Mets fan, that one made me cringe. Beane was in prime form that season.
_Jonny German - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#101898) #
I'm wondering how much JP will consider / will be told to consider the marketing and politics associated with deadline deals. Suppose the Jays are within 5 games of the wild card at the deadline. Most of us here in the Box would be quite happy to see Lidle & Stewart & Escobar dealt for prospects of appropriate value. Joe Fan, with his perspective taken from the likes of Richard Griffin, would scream bloody murder and attendance and excitement would take a hit. The ideal scenario is as Pistol describes, but the thing that makes it unlikely is that demon called Payroll. Oh yeah, and the Sox might want a little more than Rios for Colon, even assuming they're out of it in July.
Pistol - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#101899) #
I don't think the Jays would make any roster moves to only appease the fans. In Moneyball they discussed the Jays briefly, and one of the things in there was JP telling ownership that he could turn the Jays around as long as they were willing to make unpopular moves. Given how things have worked out so far I don't think ownership would force a bad move for a short term appeasement of media and fans.

The Sox trade Durham AND cash for a AAA reliever last year so just imagine what a real propsect could bring back.
Craig B - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#101900) #
I will add, however, that Tam's GB/FB ratio is not as valuable on the Blue Jays -- who have a mediocre infield defence and who play on turf -- than it would be for a better defencive team who doesn't play on an artificial surface.

That ignores the immense situational value that an extreme groundballer can have in cleaning up other guys' messes. Classic example - last night, eighth inning, one out, there are men on first and second. Extreme groundball hitter Hideki Matsui comes up, and sure enough Tosca shows he's been reading his charts carefully. He calls Tam out of the bullpen, and I turn to Sonya and say, if Matsui gets a bat on this, it'll be a double play. Sure enough, he beats a sinker into the ground about five feet in front of the plate. 1-6-3 double play.
_Spicol - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#101901) #
Besides Minaya overpaying for Colon it didn't take a whole lot to get a top player in a trade last year

You're right. And that's precisely the reasoning behind my belief that Escobar isn't worth much.
Gitz - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#101902) #
I guess Tam's value would ultimately depend on:

1) How many times he would induce the DP in the situation Papa Burley describes;
2) How many times he would allow a hit or a walk;
3) How many times he can create a rain delay with a fancy dance or fervent praying.

As to the Long/Isringhausen for B. Taylor deal ... didn't the Mets get someone else in the deal? Faulty memory, yet again. Did Taylor help the Mets after he went over? I do seem to recall him getting pasted, but the memory may be biting me again.

Now, granted, a 38-year-old closer: that's not such a great target in a trade. But Long was a Grade B prospect, at best, who had done nothing in the minor to suggest he'd be anything more than he is today: dead weight in the Oakland lineup.
_Spicol - Saturday, May 24 2003 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#101903) #
As to the Long/Isringhausen for B. Taylor deal ... didn't the Mets get someone else in the deal?

The deal was Izzy and Greg McMichael for Billy Taylor. Terrence went to the A's in a separate deal...with Leo Vasquez for Kenny Rogers.

Billy sucked it up for the Mets, allowing 29 baserunners in 13.3 innings on his way to an 8.10 ERA. The Mets made it to the NLCS but he didn't pitch in the playoffs that year at all. But considering that Rogers went 5-1, those two trades sort of balance each other out.
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