For Seattle to finish with "only" 100 wins, they would have to go 58-43 the rest of the way. There's nothing wrong with a .574 pace, but they are playing .689 ball so far, and I don't think they will slow down that much. The only potential weak spot was Freddy Garcia, who appears to be coming around. Rookie manager Bob Melvin is doing a fine job, and in retrospect might have been a lot more help to that hunch-player Brenly than most people realized.

Agreed that Minnesota will cruise in the Central, and maybe by September they will realize that Santana is their ace. The A's will do something creative at the break, a la Ray Durham, and remain the most logical wild card choice.

In the East, Boston has Pedro hobbled by a "pulled lat" and possibly other aches and pains, Casey Fossum is MRI-bound with his first-ever shoulder twinge, and Derek Lowe, pitching on three days rest, had to leave early with a blister problem. Tim Wakefield says his right leg (nearly broken while he was imitating a hitter) is just bruised, and it looks like Grady's trying to make Byung-Hyun Kim's arm fall off. The Korean sidewinder makes his second AL start tomorrow; it will be his fourth appearance in the 10 days he's been with Boston. Then there's the bullpen. The Red Sox are very similar to the Blue Jays -- too much hitting to fade away, not enough pitching to pull away. If Bernie Baseball and Nick the Stick return at full strength, and the Yanks make a bullpen deal or two, that should decide the East.

Apparently, Kim's throwing on the side is happening in live game situations.

Two games out of the wild card doesn't seem like much until you realize the Jays are competing against three or four pretty good teams for the spot. The chances that the Jays can outplay all four teams for the rest of the year are rather slim.

Although if you consider a front three of Halladay, Lidle, and Escobar pitching like they're capable of, and a bit more competence from the pen and 4 and 5 starters, it's not completely crazy.

I believe there are 7 teams that have a realistic shot at the playoffs in the American League this year. I don't include the Orioles or Royals (for obvious reasons).

I think the White Sox are almost out of it. They have very good starting pitching, but by the time the offense comes around, Loaiza could revert to pumpkin form. The staff as a whole doesn't strike out a lot of batters and their defence is sub-par. I don't think they have the horses to make a run at the pitching and defence rich Twins. They have little hope for the wildcard.

There are a lot of games against the O's waiting. That will be revealing and hopefully fun to watch. We just need a good starter ( Loaiza, anyone... ) and either two good releviers or a better coaching job with the existing group. Just do not know what should be first!
R Billie, what is your take as from where that competence should come from ? Scouting, office, coaching, the existing bunch,

Apparently, Kim's throwing on the side is happening in live game situations.

From the bullpen mound, you rarely give up five hits and four earned runs in two innings, like Kim did on Saturday, throwing 41 pitches on two days' rest after a 7-inning, 83-pitch start. That's crazy.

Loaiza couldn't come back, he's still too sour about his departure and I think it was obvious he needed a change of scenory...Don't the expos have a pitcher they've got to get rid of to dump salery? ;-)

I was originally joking about the whole Expos thing but I did my homework and now I'm wondering how tough it would be to get Livan Hernandez...The Expos are 6 games back of Atlanta at the moment, granted they're playing great ball in the first half and have the Wild Card (2 games up on the Cubs) but if they go into a 4-12 sort of slump before the deadline they'll have to dump sallery and (please correct me if I'm wrong) Hernandez is a FA after the season.

If the Jays were willing to eat some of his contract (probably not THAT much because SanFran is paying all but 300k of the contract in '03) we would be able to get a solid number 3 who's got 78.1 IP over 12 starts with a very respectable 3.68 ERA. He's nice 5.29K/9 and is has allowed only 6HR (or 1 every 13+ innings), the one visable downside is his K:BB is a little worse than it should be at 2.42 (or a walk every 4+ innings).

If we could get him signed to a 2yr contract as a part of the trade without giving up a boatload of young talent he seems worth it if we're still in the hunt come July.

I think the Expos can't add anyone but they don't necessarily have to trade anyone. MLB would have to be ghouls to make them trade away talent when they have a shot at the playoffs. Or at the very least ogres.

Honestly, at this point I just don't know where the competent bullpen depth is going to come from. Creek is gone, Tam can't strikeout many and gives up lots of walks and hits, Towers won't be much different from Tam, Miller can sometimes get lefties out, Sturtze is Sturtze...it's really Lopez and Politte (who's struggling badly) unless the Jays make a successful trade or call up. I just hope they don't blow out Lopez's arm in the second half like they did Bob File's.

The 4th and 5th spots don't look promising either. Hendrickson does fine against light hitting teams because he doesn't walk many. Good hitting teams light him up. He's an ok 5th I guess...if you can spot him against weak competition. Davis or Sturtze...I don't know, pick your poison. Unless Thurman and/or Arnold can both earn a promotion AND perform in the majors this year, I don't think we can manage a .500 record out of the 4th and 5th spots. And that would be a huge deficit to overcome, even if the front three pitch well.

The Loaiza comment was intended as a joke, and a commentary on the poor communication between the pitching coach ( that now is bragging about that fourth pitch he taught Lo ) and JP's talent searching group that gambled with Sturtze, Linton et al for that 3rd pitcher place.
I am with you RBillie, I'm not that optimist for the bandwagon yet ...

I'm wondering how tough it would be to get Livan Hernandez...

For the sake of Jays fans everywhere, I hope it's very very tough. Too tough. That Minaya's put a Vazquez-like premium on him.

First Sierra, now Hernandez.... A, the Jays need players who can help them now. Not 7 years ago. (Although come to think of it, Sierra wasn't much help back in '97 either.)

Boy, those Mariners are looking awfully good. Imagine if Garcia and/or Pinero get their act together.

I know Gillick gets a lot of flack in Seattle (and probably Japan) for not doing much to improve the team during the season (I hear he's been dubbed "Stand Pat" in some wittier quarters), although he used to be a master at getting premium talent at the deadline when he worked for us. What's the story? Is Nintendo to blame?

I know Gillick gets a lot of flack in Seattle (and probably Japan) for not doing much to improve the team during the season (I hear he's been dubbed "Stand Pat" in some wittier quarters), although he used to be a master at getting premium talent at the deadline when he worked for us. What's the story? Is Nintendo to blame?

Master? That might be overstating things. For the majority of his Toronto career, Gillick was nicknamed "Stand Pat". He only made two trades that could be classified as getting premium talent at the deadline: David Cone for Ryan Thompson and Jeff Kent in 1992 and Rickey Henderson for Steve Karsay (and a non-prospect outfielder whom I can't recall). C'est fin. So, I don't think there's really a story here. Pat is just being Pat.

Didn't he get Candiotti in '91?

And, no, that wasn't a joke.

He did. He also got John Candelaria in 1990 and Mookie Wilson in 1989, but you said "premium" talent.

It's hard to get really premium talent at the deadline - laways has been. I also seem to recall Bud Black coming over for a half-season.

Didn't he get Candiotti in '91?
And, no, that wasn't a joke.

Shouldn't be taken as a joke. Candiotti had a 2.24 ERA for Cleveland in 15 starts when acquired by the Jays, for whom he posted a 2.98 ERA in 19 starts. Lack of run support parlayed his composite 2.65 ERA into a 13-13 record.

If memory serves, the team traded Mark Whiten and Glenallen Hill, two would-be, could-be prospects that started a long line of failed Blue Jay outfield prospects in the 90's.

David Cone and Rickey Henderson were pretty premium at the time. One cost them Jeff Kent, the other cost them a guy who would become a $5 million setup man on the DL 10 years later.

Speaking of mid-season deals the 1987 Det-Atl. John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander was a classic that changed fortunes that year (like we need to remember) and is still having a major impact today.