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Coach was kind enough to let me archive my Rich Harden post for ESPN.com, so here it is. Denizens of Da Box can ignore this. ESPN.com readers may plow forward at their discretion.

The Harden report

I'll do my very best to make my two cents different from the $5 million already spent on the most anticipated pitching prospect since Mark Prior. Before you consider picking up Harden in any league, you should ask the question, "Is he ready"? Clearly the A's ownership think he is ready; they have been pushing for this move, not Ken Macha, who two weeks ago did not want it. Steve Schott is a rotten owner; let's hope he's not putting Macha in the position of using a player he doesn't want to. Now let's do what Schott probably hasn't done: look at the numbers. In 88 2/3 AAA innings (I'll forget the 13 perfect AA frames), Harden has allowed 72 hits and 35 walks to go along with 92 strikeouts. The Ks are nice, as are the hits, but the walk rate, while not hideous, is a concern. Indeed, if you saw the futures game on ESPN2, you would have seen that, in addition to having a sublime pitching motion, Harden has occasional command problems.

This is not unusual in young pitchers, so it's nothing to worry about long-term. However, a pennant race is not the best time to work on command issues; these are best resolved in the minors, as I've indicated before. Consequently, Harden will go through some very rough stretches when he discovers that big-league hitters know the strike zone better than AAA hitters do. He will also, of course, go through unhittable stretches, because he tops out at anywhere from 96-98 MPH and possesses a sharp-breaking, if raw, curve. But his AAA stats are not jaw-dropping, and, while Harden must be called up at some point, I wish he had at least one AAA start when he struck out 15, or threw a one-hit shutout, or something. I'd feel better in that event, because right now I don't think he's ready.

A Prior connection?

Nearly every e-mail I've received about Harden mentions Prior. Because of their hype and their ages -- Prior was also 21 when he got called up -- I see the similarities, but I also see significant differences. First of all, for two of his three college years Prior played at USC, which is either the minor-league equivalent to high-A ball or low-AA ball (if there was such a thing). And Prior absolutely destroyed Pac-10 pitching in his junior year, striking out 189 hitters in 131 innings while walking only 17. USC is also a major Division I college, so every series counted. Prior capped off his year by striking out 13 hitters in seven innings in winning his only start in the 2001 College World Series -- an event closer to the pressure of the majors than a July game in sweltering Fresno.

Then, as we know, Prior went second overall in the 2001 draft after Joe Mauer, because the Twins couldn't afford Prior, who was the consensus best player in the draft, if not the best college pitching prospect of all time. Harden, meantime, was drafted out of Central Arizona JC in the 17th round of the 2000 draft. In his two minor-league seasons before this one, Harden struck 287 in 210 innings -- but he also walked 113 to go along with 163 hits allowed. Prior, who needed less than a year of minor-league ball, whiffed 79 in 51 innings, while allowing 39 hits and 18 walks, in nine starts at AA and AAA in 2002 (his E.R.A. was 2.29). Prior's control, while not perfect, was considerably better than Harden's has been so far, and his K rate is even higher than Harden's high rate.

In May 2002, after much speculation, Prior made his ML debut, and he went on to make 18 more starts, finishing the season with a 3.32 E.R.A. while striking out 147, allowing 98 hits and walking 38 in 116 2/3 innings. So, not surprisingly, the E.R.A. was higher and the K rate dropped (but was still very high), but, oddly, his control improved once he reached the Show. This could be because Prior faced DHs in the minors but not, of course, in the majors -- a luxury Harden will not enjoy. (Nor will he face the A's, one of the worst-hitting teams in the league, a factor that must be considered.) By any measure, Prior was the superior pitcher in college and in the minors. Harden's ceiling is very high, but his chances for immediate success in the majors aren't what Prior's were last season.

Get to the point!

Assuming Harden gets around 14 starts, here's what I expect: 84 innings (the A's will baby him and he will most likely rack up high pitch counts), 83 hits, 44 walks, 70 strikeouts, an E.R.A. over 4.00. Wins, as Tim Hudson will attest, are capricious; I won't project them. So ... I would not use the high waiver pick in AL-only leagues; Harden's more likely to damage your E.R.A. and ratio numbers than give you six points in those categories. In mixed leagues I might risk it, because I don't see anyone coming up and because Harden has considerable trade value due to his hype. There is, of course, a chance he'll have the same impact as Prior -- or Dontrelle Willis -- but don't count it, because, as I've said ad nauseum, rookie pitchers will break your heart far more often than not. -- JG out
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Craig B - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#96572) #
, for two of his three college years Prior played at USC, which is either the minor-league equivalent to high-A ball or low-AA ball (if there was such a thing).

Gitz, are you seriously suggesting that USC's schedule averages out to the equivalent of high A ball or better? I wouldn't rule out such a possibility out of hand, but I think it's fantastically unlikely. Only the best college players are drafted into pro ball, and most high-A players are a year or two older (and therefore better) than they were when they left college.

One could do a good study on this; I wish there was a good database of college stats; even one year's numbers would be useful.
robertdudek - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#96573) #
I would say Oakland's offence is middle of the pack, when you account for park-factors.
Gitz - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#96574) #
Oh, no, you're exactly right: it is highly unlikely. We had a small conversation about this earlier. We agreed that the best college players -- Teixeira, for instance -- were AA-level, but for the most part we thought that Division I baseball falls somewhere around high-A. Since USC is a top-notch program playing in a very good conference, it's not a hideous reach to assume that some of Prior's competition was "low-AA," which I pointed out does not quite exist. ("But these ones go to 11!" I'm completely limited by space when I update that space, so I'm not able to be as clear as I'd like.

Robert, park factors don't mean a whole lot in fantasy baseball, and I would get even more people saying "huh?" to me than I already do if I started mentioning park factors, OPS($4)-AB/H + degress above celcius, etc.

Besides, you weren't supposed to be reading this!
robertdudek - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#96575) #
Gitz,

I agree that fantasy baseball uses unadjusted stats almost exclusively. But doesn't every A's fan know that the Coliseum is a pitcher's park? Knowing that, and accounting for that, is important when you consider what players the management need/wants to acquire.

In the present context (the Harden/Prior comparison), it would be fruitful to point out that the Coliseum suppresses batting average and so counterbalances the fact that Harden will have to face the DH (i.e., Prior has had to pitch in a slightly tougher park).

To sum up, park effects are relevant in determining how Harden might do in Oakland this year.
Gitz - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#96576) #
Robert,

What's funny is that, with hitters, I constantly remind people that the Coliseum will drag batting averages down, and, to a smaller extent, supress their power numbers. (This was one of the reasons I urged people to lower their expectations, somewhat, for Erubiel Durazo.)

But you're right: I seldom mention the help the park gives the A's pitchers, possibly because I take it for granted that Mulder, Zito, and Hudson would be so good in any park, so they are worth the high draft picks/high bids, etc.

That said, I don't expect the 80 or so innings Harden will pitch this year to be affected too greatly by the Coliseum. But I should have perhaps projected him to allow a few less hits. At any rate, my projections are not at all scientific.

And .. besides ... you shouldn't be reading this!
_Mick - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#96577) #
Have the Honchos at the Worldwide Leader put out some sort of mandate about using specific projections? I'm stopping by every now and then to read up the people I know -- since I'm not playing fantasy ball this year other than watching my untouched free ESPN team battle for the lead in a dead league -- and I'm seeing more and more of this stuff ...

... 84 innings ... 83 hits, 44 walks, 70 strikeouts, an E.R.A. over 4.00.

This is not a criticism. This is a real question. I understand projections, but when I read a line -- and Gitz, this is really the first time I recall seeing you do it, but it's rampant elsewhere -- like "Expect Joe StartingPitcher to finish with 12 wins, a 4.13 ERA and 144 K while reliever Juan CloserGuy will record 37 saves and a WHIP of 1.13" ... that just makes me giggle.
Gitz - Thursday, July 24 2003 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#96578) #
There is no mandate from the Big Boys at ESPN; mainly I did it in response to the dozens of "How do you think Harden will do" questions I had been getting. I certainly have not gotten into that kind of numberd speculation before, but I was so tired of being asked, and then answering "He'll do OK," that I just threw the numbers out there and kept them up for a week. Now that I've finally updated the ESPN.com page, I'm sure I'll start getting flooded again.

And, Mick, I would certainly take criticism from you rather than from a bitter reader in Iowa who thought I was bats for not recommending Ted Lilly before the start of the season. As I've said before, clearly I'm bats, but not for that reason.
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