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Another Exhibit for Murphy's Law. My Game Reports focus on the Jay bullpen, and Roy Halladay throws a complete game gem. But, hey, I'll take the win over a good story any day.



The first two weeks of the Jay season has brought mixed news for the Jay bullpen. The starting rotation has been superb, with the consequence that the bullpen has not been asked to shoulder a disproportionate share of the pitching load. This is unusual for the beginning of the season, particularly in a year with only two April off-days.

But, the performance of the bullpen has been so-so. There have been a few problems in finding appropriate usage, both over and under, for a couple of the relievers that may have played a role in their sub-par performance. Solutions for the problems do seem to be at hand though.

Assessment of the Jay bullpen personnel prior to the season

The bullpen has seven pitchers, six right-handed pitchers and Scott Schoeneweis. All of the pitchers, are, in my view of roughly the same quality. There are no Eric Gagnes at one end of the spectrum and no Doug Creeks at the other. The effect of this rough equality is that it really matters little which pitchers throw in high vs. low leverage situations. Instead the focus should be on placing relievers in roles and with usage that allows them to perform their best.

For instance, while it is, normally, a poor use of your best reliever in the ninth to protect a 3 run lead, in the Jays' situation, it really makes little difference. One does not need to "conserve" the closer when the closer's pitching ability is not really significantly different from the rest of the bullpen. And if the closer finds additional motivation by the possiblity of getting a save, so much the better.

The bullpen's first 10 days- April 4-14

A summary of bullpen use April 4-14 follows. The format is entrance inning/batters faced on the first line and opposition GPA (gross production average-(1.8 X OBP + SLUG divided by 4) on the second line. Gross production average runs on a scale similar to batting averages. For a pitcher, an opposition GPA under .200 is a very good outing, between .250 and .275 is average, and over .300 is poor. Here is the summary:

date Batista  Speier   Frasor   League   Schoen    Chulk    Walker
Ap 4  7.2/5                               7.0/2
      .140                                .000

Ap 5  8.0/3   7.1/3              5.0/8    6.2/3
      .000    .233               .347     .237

Ap 6          7.0/5     6.0/5             7.0/4
              .430      .395              .783
Ap 7   ------------------- day-off---------------------------

Ap 8                             5.0/11             6.1/8
				 .396               .056
Ap 9          8.0/3     6.2/4             6.0/4
	      .000      .000              .308
Ap 10 7.2/8                               7.1/1              5.0/8
      .319                                .000               .056
Ap 11         8.0/5                                  6.0/6
              .305                                  .056
Ap 12 8.0/4                       6.2/3   7.1/3
      .113                        .233    .150
Ap 13         7.2/2     7.0/4             7.1/4
	      .225      .466              .350
Ap 14 --------------------complete game----------------------

Box readers contributed their comments on bullpen use during the first 10 days here. Many of those comments are reflected in my thoughts on this summary. We will start with comments on a few members of the pen.

Scott Schoeneweis

Schoeneweis was used often, 7 times during the first 10 games. When facing one or two left-handed batters, and no more than three batters total, he was generally effective. When he stayed in longer and faced righties or when he pitched on 3 consecutive days, he was not. His usage will need to be attenuated, or he will not be successful.

Finding the right use for Schoeneweis is particularly important because he is the only lefty in the pen. Here is what I would suggest for him, by way of guideline:

1. he should not be used more than 2 days in a row,

2. he should not be used to face more than 3 batters, except as in point 4,

3. with a left-right-left combination coming up, he should not be brought on to face all three batters in low leverage situations unless he needs the work, and

4. if he needs the work, there is nothing wrong with bringing him for 2 innings or so (the 5th and 6th say) against a lefty leaning lineup.

Vinnie Chulk and Pete Walker

Both of these guys have pitched very well and very little. It is hard to find enough use for two long men when your starters are pitching so well. Whether this will be a long-term problem will depend on how successful the starters are in the long-term.

We will leave the rest of the relief staff for the next report. Instead, how about a look at paces. The Jays have played 10 games, and each of the starters have thrown 2 games, except that Halladay has started 3 and Lilly 1. If we give Lilly 6 of Halladay's 22 innings, we can derive a fair approximation of paces by multiplying by 16:

Halladay-    256 innings
Lilly-       176 innings
Chacin-      176 innings 
Bush-        192 innings
Towers-      202.2 innings

Walker-      37.1 innings
Chulk-       74.2 innings
Speier-      64 innings
Frasor-      42.2 innings
League-      58.2 innings
Schoeneweis- 53.1 innings
Batista-     74.2 innings

If the starters continue to perform at similar levels, a couple of the bullpen members will be underworked by the end of the season. We will see if this continues.

A final thought

The decision to continue with Halladay last night after the walk to Teixeira in the 9th inning must have given Gibbons pause. Halladay had thrown almost 110 pitches, and did seem to be tiring. It was only his 3rd start of the season, and he is coming off a year spoiled by arm troubles. On the one hand, a manager wants to show confidence in his ace. On the other, the manager wants to be sensitive to the need to modestly ramp up workload after an injury. No one said that being a manager was easy.

Links of the Day

John Brattain in THT on Steve Kline and 'free' agency

TBG's light-hearted baseball glossary

The Bullpen Report- v. 1 | 57 comments | Create New Account
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Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#111733) #
Nice, Mike, I look forward to future installments. I think these will be a great little archive to look back on when the season has progressed.
Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#111734) #
From last night's game thread:

Hillenbrand is a fine player, but a little overpriced when the Jays got him, and creates a problem for the Jays with too many OF/3B/1B/DH and not enough spots for them all.

I'm not going to get into "overpriced", because I think that a lot of player dollar valuations I saw over the winter were just bunk (when everyone is "paying too much", you have to know that your measurements are wrong), but the Jays signed a 3B, Koskie, who has a history of injuries. They knew coming into the season that they'd need to give him days off to keep him at his peak performance. They also needed a contingency plan if Koskie were to be badly injured and miss a large chunk of the year.

Shea Hillenbrand fits into this role perfectly. When people speak of Hillenbrand blocking Gabe Gross, I don't see this at all, unless Gross can play third base. No, the person blocking Gabe Gross, the person whose signing you should be railing against if you want Gabe here on the team today, is Corey Koskie -- Koskie's signing necessitated the signing of someone like Shea Hillenbrand. If the Jays had signed just Hillenbrand and not Koskie, then there wouldn't be the same kind of worry about a strong backup at third. Of course, I don't think that anyone really wants to advocate that course of action.

I get the impression that some people just don't like Hillenbrand and are really reaching when they give their reasons why. "Blocking Gabe Gross" is, in my opinion, a completely ridiculous objection to Hillenbrand without a full-scale alternate backup 3B plan that doesn't involve a roster spot. Do we want 40 games of Menechino at third while Koskie DHs?

Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#111735) #
Good summary, Mike.

If Gibbons intends to bring in Schoeneweis every time there's a tough lefty, then Schoeneweis is going to make about 125 appearances this year. Every lineup in the American League has at least one tough lefty, and the SS Loogy can't face them all. It's not that the Jays need another southpaw, necessarily; it's that they need another pitcher who's effective against left-handers, even if he throws right-handed. Here are the three-year splits of the current righties in the pen (excluding Brandon League):

Pitcher   vs RH  vs LH
Speier     653    759
Walker     754    847
Batista    688    758
Chulk      633    833
Frasor     700    697
Only Jason Frasor retires righties and lefties equally, and he's not going very well at the moment. Still, I'd be inclined to use Frasor against a tough lefty once in a while, if only to give SS a break.

Beyond that, as I've said before and as Mike's chart underlines, there seems little need for two right-handed long relievers at the moment. I'd consider sending one of these righties down to Syracuse and bringing up Eric Crozier for a while.

uglyone - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#111738) #
[quote]The decision to continue with Halladay last night after the walk to Teixeira in the 9th inning must have given Gibbons pause. Halladay had thrown almost 110 pitches, and did seem to be tiring. It was only his 3rd start of the season, and he is coming off a year spoiled by arm troubles. On the one hand, a manager wants to show confidence in his ace. On the other, the manager wants to be sensitive to the need to modestly ramp up workload after an injury. No one said that being a manager was easy.[/quote]

I think it made the Gibber's decision a bit easier that he knew that if Roy went to 120 pitches, the game would be over (lost) anyways.
Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#111739) #
Gibbons absolutely made the right choice to let Halladay finish last night. Doc was as sharp in the 9th as he was in the 1st, the walk to Hidalgo notwithstanding. You bring in a closer to "save" a game; Roy didn't need saving last night. The Jays have a pretty uninspiring closer right now, and Gibbons probably realizes that bringing Batista into the game in a save situation is not automatic. Good for him.
uglyone - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#111740) #
Koskie is one thing.....but Hillenbrand was also needed because, if we remember, Hinske really stunk coming into this season. (seems like ages ago, I know).

Cat and Koskie injury prone, Hinske stinking, and a rookie in RF.......of course we needed a guy like Hillenbrand....a proven consistent average to above average hitter with good versatility in the field.....especially since we had the payroll room, and because he's very tradeable if the kids do well.
Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#111741) #
uglyone, here's a reminder -- the quote tools used here are the italics tags, an "i" (open) and an "/i" (close) surrounded by the angular brackets: "<" and ">". The preview pane allows you to see if you used it correctly. Thanks in advance.
Coach - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#111745) #
Gibby knows the game, and perhaps more importantly, knows his players. He doesn't manage to a pitch count, unless there are extenuating circumstances, like a return from injury. Last night, if it had been any other starter, we would have seen Batista in the ninth. That's not to suggest he's "overworking" Doc, has a "quick hook" on anyone else, or doesn't "trust" Batista. On certain days, he'll recognize that his starter can (and deserves to) go the distance.

Walker's share of the workload will increase, because he'll get some 3-4 inning stints. I know I'd send him out there in extra innings like a second starter, and Gibby rarely does anything that doesn't make perfect sense to me, except perhaps liking the movie The Alamo, so I'm sure he recognizes Pete's value.

Schoeneweis seems to be getting that microscope treatment I complained about yesterday. People, the main reason he's been used in 70% of the games is because they have all been close! He can rest in the blowouts and make 80 appearances that matter. Many of them will be less than a full inning. I do agree, Mike, that it seems (based on one outing in early April) he's less effective on the third straight day.

The eventual lefty-killer among the righties might be Brandon League. Right now, he's a 22-year-old kid with quite a bit of Nuke LaLoosh in him, and he's still getting used to the bright lights. September didn't count; he was a playoff MVP who felt invincible and had nothing to lose. This is his first real test as a big-leaguer, and he's understandably pressing a little. Conquering the tendency to try too hard is one of the most important steps in a player's development.

I'm not as opposed to the 12-man staff as I once was. For one thing, the bench has never been so versatile, and I can't imagine many AB for Crozier. The other concern is amplified when you play the Yankees and Red Sox but can happen against any AL club; one shootout or a 14-inning affair can devastate a 6-man 'pen for a whole series.

Pistol - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#111748) #
Why do people think that Hillenbrand can be traded for someone useful?

He was traded a few months ago for a player that any team can pick up today with just a waiver claim (if I read the game thread correctly). Peterson struggled after he was called up & sent back down, and struggled in the AFL. It's not like his value was high when he was traded. Hillenbrand isn't a different player today than he was last year either.

Hitters don't bring much at the trading deadline (quick - who was traded for Larry Walker last year?) and Hillenbrand isn't going to make a team that much better unless a contender has an injury at 1B/3B with no alternatives. I just don't see why Hillenbrand is a valuable trade commodity.
groove - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#111753) #
The bullpen hasn't been so-so. I think its been pretty dismal.

Starters Runs Allowed: 20
Releivers Runs Allowed: 19

Starters IP: 62.2
Relievers IP: 15.1

This doesn't even include inherited runners, scoring for starters. I know the starting rotation has been awesome, but I think the bullpen has let us down so far. Hopefully they can turn it around.



Mick Doherty - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#111755) #
(quick - who was traded for Larry Walker last year?)

Erik Thompson and Ian Kinsler, but fortunately for the Rangers, who weren't going to win the division even with Walker at DH, the Canadian slugger vetoed the deal. (I'd say he "Nixed" it, but Layne Nix wasn't part of the trade.)

Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#111756) #
I'd be curious to see how many of those reliever runs allowed came in blowups or blocks. My subjective, purely unencumbered by numbers impression of our bullpen so far this year has been favorable. Maybe I've missed the bad games, which is possible, or maybe I'm just way out to lunch.
Craig S. - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#111759) #
I think Gibbons made the correct decision last night with Halladay, in what was a very tough situation. If Halladay had blown the game, people would be all over Gibby for not removing him. If he brought in Batista and lost that way, he'd be criticized for not sticking with Halladay. So, for the manager's sake, I'm glad it went like it did.

The bullpen numbers aren't great so far, but we're working with a tiny sample size. Too early to really evaluate them at this point, but I'm sure those numbers will improve.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#111761) #
"Koskie's signing necessitated the signing of someone like Shea Hillenbrand."

I'm sorry, Hank, but you are really reaching here. First, Koskie has averaged around 130 games played over the last 5 years, and a lot of those were certainly managerial decisions which sat Koskie against tough lefthanders. The injury-risk that Koskie carries has been overblown.

And come to think of it, Menenchino at third for 50 games would look just fine to me. Plus you can get another reasonably priced utility infielder - these guys are floating around all the time.

Your argument would make more sense if the Jays thought they were going to be serious contenders at the time of the Hillenbrand acquisition. They didn't.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#111764) #
"one shootout or a 14-inning affair can devastate a 6-man 'pen for a whole series."

That's when you call up your 12th pitcher and send him back down when the usage crisis subsides.

The 12-man pitching staff is anathema to me.
R Billie - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#111769) #
Very rarely are five opening day starters able to make all of their starts in a year. Much will depend on how Rosario, Gaudin, Glynn, or Miller might respond during a callup.

But so far the starting pitching has been as good as can be reasonably expected and in the case of Towers and Chacin maybe a little better.
Mike Green - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#111770) #

I have a world of confidence in Gibbons. I am sure that he will make adjustments to Schoeneweis' usage, maybe not the ones that I might have recommended, but ones that will work.

One of the items that I was considering adding to the chart was run differential, i.e. Jays up 4 runs would be +4. If there is interest, I can add it in for next time.

Schoeneweis did come in with 4 run and 3 run leads in the Tampa Bay series, and a couple of times with 2 run leads. It is true that among the 10 games, there was one blow-out, one semi-blowout, one complete game and seven reasonably close ones. This will tend to put pressure on a manager to address short-term tactical concerns.

R Billie - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#111771) #
<i>Hitters don't bring much at the trading deadline (quick - who was traded for Larry Walker last year?) and Hillenbrand isn't going to make a team that much better unless a contender has an injury at 1B/3B with no alternatives. I just don't see why Hillenbrand is a valuable trade commodity.</i>

Trade value is all in the eye of the beholder. Was Victor Zambrano worth Scott Kazmir? Was Ugeth Urbina worth Adrian Gonzalez? Most trades are neutral but when the circumstances are right you can get something good. Particularly if Shea enters July still hitting around .300 with lots of RBI.
Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#111772) #
Robert, how could you get another reasonably-priced utility infielder without using up a roster spot? Is he a ghost infielder? Whoever else you put on the roster instead of Shea Hillenbrand still takes up Gabe Gross' spot. If your objection to Hillenbrand is "he took Gabe Gross' spot", you are throwing that argument away by suggesting the signing of anyone else.

In addition, using a five-year average is deliberately distorting Koskie's injury risk to make your point, since the last two years were significantly worse than the three before. Perhaps you have some data that shows that injury risk lessens as a player ages? I find the fact that you did that quite patronizing and insulting, and I imagine you did it because you figured I wouldn't check the numbers. Shame on you.

The Jays came off of a disastrous, injury-filled year. This year they have a strong contingency plan not only in case of injury but to prevent it. I am quite happy about that.
Coach - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#111776) #
You're right, Mike. In hindsight, it wasn't the Game 3 use of SS that was a "mistake" but his less-important Game 2 appearance. As Gibby's biggest fan, apart from his players, I'm confident he'll make the right adjustments.

Every day I give thanks to the baseball gods that we have Scott to cheer for, instead of Steve Kline.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#111777) #
No Hank,

Gross' roster spot is currently being taken by an extra pitcher. But ... the reason Gross isn't on the roster is because Hilenbrand is taking DH ABs away from Cat, and it has been decided that Cat should play regularly in left, leaving no room for Gross to get regular playing time unless he takes it from Rios. It's a domino effect.

If we had no Cat, I would have no bad word to say about acquiring Hilly. But having both Hilly and Cat AND playing them both regularly necessarily squeezes someone else out of the starting lineup.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#111778) #
"It is true that among the 10 games, there was one blow-out, one semi-blowout, one complete game and seven reasonably close ones. This will tend to put pressure on a manager to address short-term tactical concerns."

That seems like a normal distribution. In most games, the run margin is 3 or less entering the 7th inning. But, the Jays have so far been on the leading end of the run margin most of the time - that will surely change somewhat.

Nevertheless, at some point either a second lefty will arrive or a "phantom" lefty (righthander who does well gainst lefty batters) will be used in some of those key situations.
Named For Hank - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#111780) #
I still think your target here should be Koskie. Koskie on the roster requires someone else to back him up, unless you're into taking risks. Koskie could play 150 games this season, which I'd love, but at the same time you have to count on him playing 118, like last season.

But I also think that you'd find a reason to dislike Hillenbrand's signing even if Cat wasn't on the team. From the stories about Cat's leadership, Cat's dedication and work ethic, and the stuff I've seen, particularly when he came to the defense of the rookies in last year's video monitor dust-up, I think Cat is exceptionally valuable to a young team. He sets the tone with his hours of video room study (to which everyone is invited). He brings more than just what we see on the field. Intangibles, blah blah blah.

I like Corey Koskie. I like him a lot. Plus, his cousin was just in my store buying paper again, so I need to say nice things about him. But I really think that he is that first domino.
westcoast dude - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#111783) #
Thanks for explaining the GPA, which I never knew about.
Batista is good, albeit a little shakey in his Blown Save/Win which gave O-Dog the chance to be a hero. If Frasor fades, send him down. Whiteside and Naninni both look ready to come up.
Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#111789) #
Keep in mind that in admittedly limited action, Catalanotto has not taken well to any position but the outfield, and especially not to DH.

2004 as OF: .363/.389/.507, 146 AB
2004 as DH: .198/.274/.229, 96 AB

2003 as OF: .320/.374/.512, 387 AB
2003 as DH: .244/.279/.354, 82 AB

2002 as OF: .333/.444/.573, 75 AB
2002 as 1B: .250/.372/.444, 36 AB
2002 as 2B: .241/.333/.379, 58 AB
2002 as DH: .206/.250/.324, 34 AB

2002-05 as OF: .332/.387/.518, 608 AB
2002-05 as DH: .217/.272/.292, 212 AB

That's not to say Cat could never adjust to being a full-time DH. But the recent historical record is not promising.

BCMike - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#111790) #
The problem with the bullpen so far this year, has been the inability to get ahead in the count. Brandon League, in particular, has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes and I'm strarting to think he would be better off getting regular innings in AAA(maybe even as a starter). Another reason for sending League down is that Chulk has looked very good in his limited innings.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#111793) #
Jordan,

Do you seriously think there is any cause and effect going on behind those splits?
Ducey - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#111794) #
Those splits on Cat are eye opening. His numbers as an outfielder are outstanding.

My guess for the split would be that Cat is a DH when he is tired or banged up and therefore not 100% healthy.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#111795) #
Cat has mentioned before that he doesn't like DHing. It's probably pretty hard to hit when you're mentally grumbling about the position you're playing.
Gitz - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#111797) #
Why is it so impossible to believe that Catalanatto is a better hitter because he's playing in the field? I mean, I agree that knee-fred statements like "So-and-so is happier when he's playing instead of DHing, so let him play the field" are mainly bunk, right up there with "closer mentallity." I'm not prepared to say what is going through Cat's mind as he's sitting on the bench.

On the other hand, the simple truth is we don't know one way or another if F-Cat is better or worse if he's in the field as opposed to DHing. Similarly, we don't know if Arthur Rhodes bombed last year because he was hurt or because he couldn't handle closing games out. (For the record, I don't think the A's would have signed Rhodes if they suspected his arm wasn't sound.) But simply because we can't measure the "mental effect" of closing or the differences between playing the field or sitting on the bench waiting to hit does not mean that they don't exist.

Gitz - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#111799) #
Wait a second. Is that Moffatt and I agreeing again? Terrifying. I'm buying a bomb shelter as soon as I get home.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#111800) #
It doesn't mean that they do either. Or if they exist, it doesn't mean they are not tiny and insignificant.

Suppose you were a major league player and your manager told you: "you are going to mostly be a DH, you'll play some outfield too" and you answered "I don't like DHing", then your manager answered "Okay, instead of DHing, you'll sit on the bench."

Would you still not want to DH?
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#111801) #
It doesn't mean that they do either. Or if they exist, it doesn't mean they are not tiny and insignificant.

I wouldn't call the difference between .332 and .217 insignificant given the sample sizes. The difficulty is jumping from correlation to causality. There could be all kinds of things that could be causing it, one fo them being "it's just a fluke".

Suppose you were a major league player and your manager told you: "you are going to mostly be a DH, you'll play some outfield too"

Had the team done this last year, I doubt Cat would be a Jay right now (you can decide for yourself whether or not this owuld be a good thing). When he re-signed last year it was under the understanding that he'd be a position player, so I don't think J.P. would be too happy with Butter if he pulled something like that.

Gitz - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#111807) #
WARNING: Anectodal "evidence" ahead.

Granted, I'm not a professional player, but I HATED DHing. When I got back from my freshman year in college, I played in a semi-pro league and DHed about half the time. I hated it. I just didn't feel like I was part of the game. I played much better when I was not DHing. (Strangely, I also hit better when I was pitching. Maybe it's because I was so focused, but I vividly remember having my best games as a pitcher/hitter.)

There's a real rhythm to baseball, it's one of the more beautiful and difficult-to-pin down aspects of the game. DHing is something you have to get used to, because there's nothing quite like jogging out to the field to take your position; taking cut-off throws from the outfield; diving for a ball; simply throwing the ball around-the-horn after an out has been made; and so much more.

Yeah, you can't measure any of that stuff. It's there, trust me, and if a hack like me feels it, you can bet many players feel it, too, whether or not it's now their job to be baseball players. It's still a game when they're on the field.
Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#111808) #
Do you seriously think there is any cause and effect going on behind those splits?

I have no idea. But I do know that those splits are real. So I can either dismiss them as coincidence or I can wonder if there's a reason or reasons for them.

If they're coincidental, then there's no rational relationship here at all there -- it's as if a whole bunch of Wednesdays turned out to be mostly sunny. This isn't a very satisfying possibility to the analytical mind, but it should be recognized: sometimes what you think is a signal is simply noise with rhythm. As noted, the sample sizes are small, which increases the likelihood of coincidence.

But it's also possible that they're not coincidental, that the splits exist for a reason or reasons. There are possible explanations -- I like Ducey's suggestion that a guy who normally plays a field position is often sent to DH when he's tired or banged up a little. I don't know if that's the case here or not, but Cat has had trouble staying healthy lately, so it might be worth investigating further.

Another possibility comes from Moffatt, who recalls that Cat has stated a dislike for DHing. That wouldn't directly cause a bad performance -- I cannot envision a professional ballplayer intentionally giving less than his all, no matter what his position -- but there may be an influence nonetheless. Possibly, Cat dislikes DHing because he finds it more difficult to stay focused on the game. That wouldn't be unusual; as my earlier piece on DHing demonstrated, few players have taken to the DH spot with such enthusiasm that they built a successful career out of it. Most ballplayers like to use their gloves.

As I say, I don't know if there's a reason for the splits, and if there is a reason, whether it's predictive of the future. But you know the old rule of journalism: one instance is an occasion, two is a coincidence, and three is a trend. Whether there's a causal effect here or not, the splits are real, and they merit at least curiosity, and at most, further study and maybe even some conclusions about optimum player usage going forward.

Dean - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#111809) #
Could some of the cause for the splits be Cat's health problems? When he is at 100% he is usually playing a position and when he is not, he has seen a lot of DH time. I don't think it totally explains the difference but it may be a factor.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#111810) #
That's the thing - everyone is happier playing in the field. The only guys who say they don't mind DHing are the guys who've been doing it for years. The question is, why would Cat's hatred for DHing cause him to hit much worse as a DH, while other players would not be similarly affected.



Donkit R.K. - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#111812) #
robert - do you really think that there is cause and effect anywhere?
Mike Green - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#111814) #

When he re-signed last year it was under the understanding that he'd be a position player, so I don't think J.P. would be too happy with Butter if he pulled something like that.

To which, Butter would reply, "I don't make out the lineup cards, sir."

One of the age-old debates in the game is what role the GM has in lineup decisions, and for that matter, what role the manager has in player acquisitions. My own view is that the Manager should have responsibility for lineup decisions and the GM should have responsibility for player acquisitions, but that there is a consultative process on both ends. The GM may very well say to the Manager: "I told Player X that he'd likely be given a shot at the everyday shortstop job when I offered him 10 kajillion dollars this year", but it is still the Manager's decision who plays and when. The Manager may very well say to the GM: "I really need a second lefty in the pen", but that is clearly the GM's decision.

Battles between Managers and GMs about these kinds of issues are the stuff of baseball legend.

Donkit R.K. - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#111817) #
Sorry, I've been studying David Hume...
CaramonLS - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#111824) #
NFH you do realize that your point is Moot considering we have Cat who can also play regularily at the 3B position if we need be?

If Koskie goes down, we can send Cat or Hinske over there. If 2 of them go down, we can just call up Crozier.

I don't see the real problem, Johnson is a more than capable 4th OF. Cat can play both corner OFs, 1B, 3B, 2B.
Jordan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#111830) #
NFH you do realize that your point is Moot considering we have Cat who can also play regularily at the 3B position if we need be?

If you mean Shea "The Cat" Hillenbrand, then I'm in full agreement. But if you mean Frank Catalanotto, he's played just 35 of his 714 career games at third base, the last time in 2001 with Texas. The Jays would play Russ Adams there in an emergency before they played Catalanotto. He is flat-out not an option at third.

R Billie - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#111831) #
Do we know that Cat didn't DH a lot of games against lefthanded pitchers? He has played a lot against both lefties and righties in 2003 and 2004 and clearly he prefers righthanded pitchers by a large margin. It could be possible that on the days he DHed he wasn't completely healthy as has been suggested or he faced an unusual number of lefties.
VBF - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#111832) #
Hinske's new nickname has got some attention on Aaron Gleeman's "Channel Surfing".

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=11962

Jacko - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#111833) #
Now that Walker is healthy again, he seems like a different pitcher. More K's, less hits. I'd be inclined to give him some high leverage innings, and see what he does with them. Especialy when someone like Schoenweis has been overworked.

Thank you, that is all.
rtcaino - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#111834) #
Wow, Gleeman is the man. He even linked NFH's pic.
Halladayfan32 - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#111835) #
Sorry if this was posted already, but it looks like Adam Peterson was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks.

http://fantasybaseball.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&leaguenum=&id=7363
Jobu - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#111846) #
Hinske's new nickname has got some attention on Aaron Gleeman's "Channel Surfing".

My god, we've created a monster...

King Ryan - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#111852) #
Caramon was wrong about playing Catalanotto at third, but he also mentioned Hinske, which would be the most obvious solution.

That is to say, if Koskie was injured, and the Jays didn't have Shea, they would just slide Hinske back over to third and call up Crozier. It wouldn't be that big of a problem.
VBF - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#111853) #
According to SportsNet, Ben Sheets has signed a four year $35.5 million contract extension with Milwaukee.
R Billie - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#111854) #
Wow, what a bargain. He's about as good as Halladay with the only difference being the Jays signed Halladay after he won 18 and 22 games (and a Cy Young) and the Brewers signed Sheets after his first breakout year where he only won 13 games or so despite great numbers. Sheets is averaging under $9 million a year while Roy averages over $10 million. Timing is everything. I'm not sure how many years of free agency the Brewers are buying out though if any. With Halladay I think the Jays are getting two.
Ron - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#111856) #
Sheets signed for 38.5 mil/4 years. A little under what Santana got.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2038308

Both players had 2 years of FA bought out.

So much for all the talk of small market/low payroll teams not being able to keep their franchise players. I'm sure the Sox and Yanks were ready to pounce but both won't be hitting the open market for a long time.
Stellers Jay - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#111857) #
CNNSI has the deal at 38.5 million for 4 years.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/baseball/mlb/04/15/bc.bbn.brewers.sheets.ap/index.html

It's still a pretty good deal considering the free agent pitching market went ape this year. I'd take Sheets at this money in a heartbeat over what Ortiz and many others got in the winter. Very close to Doc's and Santana's deal. In retrospect, Halladay's deal was a trend setter for young pitchers and buying out arbitration and a couple of years of free agency. Minnesota and now the Brewers have both used the same strategy.
Stellers Jay - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#111858) #
Got beat to the buffet line by Ron.
Stellers Jay - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#111860) #
Santana and Doc have both won a CY Young which probably deserves that little extra carrot (3-4 million more) than what Sheets got today.
robertdudek - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#111866) #
Looking at the AL teams, the majority have 12 pitchers on their active roster.

The Twins, White Sox and Angels are the exceptions and have but 11 pitchers. The Angels are carrying 3 catchers; the Twins have four(!) if you count Matt Lecroy.

The Yankees and Mariners also currently have 11 pitchers, but the activations of Kevin Brown and Joel Pineiro are imminent. Since Andy Phillips and Justin Leone are expected to be demoted when that happens, those two teams will also have 12 active pitchers.
Chuck - Friday, April 15 2005 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#111867) #
Santana and Doc have both won a CY Young which probably deserves that little extra carrot (3-4 million more) than what Sheets got today.

I think the "carrots" were due to Halladay and Santana having longer stretches of superior performance under their belts when they signed their contracts. Sheets has being showing potential for a while but has only had one superior season (albeit one that was better even than Halladay's Cy Young season).

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