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Features Predict the Rotation: Who starts how much?

So Matthew E got us started on predicting the playing time at third base for the 2011 Jays. Now let's take a step back (or, more accuratbely, forward and to the left) and see how Bauxites think the Jays' 162 pitcher starts this season will be divided up.

There are many options, including, but perhaps not limited to  ...



  • R. Romero
  • Morrow
  • Cecil
  • Drabek
  • Litsch
  • Rzepczynski
  • Mills
  • Purcey
  • A non-roster invitee*
  • Someone in the Jays system not currently on the 40*
  • Soneone not currently in the organization*
  • Apologies if I accidentally omitted anyone!

*Name specific individuals if you can!

Here's my best (admittedly wild) guess ....

  • R. Romero 36
  • Morrow 34
  • Cecil 31
  • Drabek 26
  • Litsch 14
  • Rzepczynski 11
  • Purcey 6
  • Random spot starts to "other" not shown 4

    Who's up next, valued Bauxite prognosticators???

    • Posted by Mick Doherty on Monday, March 14 2011 @ 01:50 PM EDT.
    Predict the Rotation: Who starts how much? | 40 comments | Create New Account
    The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
    Matthew E - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#231281) #
    My guesses:

    Ricky Romero 32
    Brandon Morrow 30
    Brett Cecil 32
    Jesse Litsch 6
    Mark Rzepczynski 23
    Scott Richmond 2
    Kyle Drabek 20
    Zack Stewart 5
    Brad Mills 6
    Bobby Ray 6
    Dustin McGowan 0
    Jo-Jo Reyes 0
    Casey Janssen 0
    Luis Perez 0
    David Purcey 0
    Somebody not in the organization 0

    [ Reply to This ]
    John Northey - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#231282) #
    Talk about stabs in the dark...

    R. Romero 33
    Morrow 33
    Cecil 33
    Drabek 25
    Litsch 25
    Rzepczynski 10
    ---
    thats the big 6, leaving 3 starts for the backups - Mills/Ray/Richmond being the most likely guys to get a start or two.

    Some part of me keeps expecting one of those starters with 33 above will be traded, with Cecil the most likely. Not sure why, but my gut tells me that'll happen. It has been wrong before though.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Kieran - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#231283) #
    Romero 32
    Morrow 30
    Cecil 31
    Litsch 15
    Drabek 24
    Stewart 6
    Rzcep 9
    Richmond 3
    Reyes 2
    Others TBD 9
    [ Reply to This ]
    GabrielSyme - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#231284) #
    I'll go with:

    Romero:  32
    Cecil: 32
    Morrow: 30
    Drabek: 27
    Litsch: 18
    Rzepczynski: 14
    Mills: 2
    Reyes: 4
    Stewart: 3

    My bet is Litsch makes the rotation, pitches well, and is traded near the deadline.  I'm obviously gambling on no significant injuries.

    [ Reply to This ]
    Jonny German - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#231285) #
    Very difficult to predict - expecting everybody to be healthy is totally unreasonable (something a certain former GM never seemed to grasp), but predicting who will be injured is even more of a fool's errand.

    So, assuming pretty good health for everyone:

    Ricky Romero 30
    Brett Cecil 30
    Brandon Morrow 28
    Jesse Litsch 25
    Marc Rzepczynski 20
    Kyle Drabek 20
    Jo-Jo Reyes 3
    Zach Stewart 3
    Casey Janssen 3
    David Purcey 0
    Brad Mills 0
    Robert Ray 0

    I think a scoring system should be established. I'd favour the simple method of 1 point for every correctly predicted start, with no points for "other" or "someone not in the org" and the like. And a maximum of 162 starts predicted, no silly gaming of the system by predicting 40 starts each for 8 different pitchers.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Timbuck2 - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#231292) #
    Why bother disallowing 40 starts per pitcher or requiring exactly 162 Games total?  It's far simpler to deduct 2 points for every start above or below 162 for the season.

    That being said - I hope my math is right :)

    Ricky Romero 30
    Brett Cecil 30
    Brandon Morrow 26
    Jesse Litsch 30
    Kyle Drabek 26
    Marc Rzepczynski 6
    Jo-Jo Reyes 3
    Zach Stewart 3
    Casey Janssen 3
    Scott Richmond 3
    Henderson Alvarez 2

    [ Reply to This ]
    Mike Green - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#231294) #
    Ricky Romero 27
    Brandon Morrow 27
    Brett Cecil 32
    Jesse Litsch 5
    Mark Rzepczynski 26
    Scott Richmond 0
    Kyle Drabek 26
    Zack Stewart 19
    Brad Mills 0
    Bobby Ray 0
    Dustin McGowan 0
    Jo-Jo Reyes 0
    Casey Janssen 0
    Luis Perez 0
    David Purcey 0
    Somebody not in the organization 0
    [ Reply to This ]
    dan gordon - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#231295) #
    1. Romero 33
    2. Morrow 30
    3. Cecil 30
    4. Litsch 30
    5. Drabek 20
    6. Rzepczynski 10
    7. Ray 5
    8. Stewart 3
    9. Mills 1

    Of course, the odds are that at least one of the top 4 will get injured at some point, but how to predict which one(s) it will be.  Would expect the bottom 5 on the list to get more starts than listed due to injury to the top 4.  Knocked a few games off Morrow/Cecil due to innings ceilings and a few games off Litsch due to possible soreness from the repaired elbow.

    [ Reply to This ]
    Mike Green - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#231296) #
    Spelling Rzepczynski correctly, while "missing the marc" as I did, should merit a day with the English teacher from hell.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Jonny German - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#231297) #
    You got "Zack" wrong too Mike :P
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mick Doherty - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#231298) #

    with the English teacher from hell

    You rang? (Sure, I haven't actually "taught English" in 15 years, but my ex-students are still quivering ...)

    [ Reply to This ]
    Magpie - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#231299) #
    We know nothing whatsoever about how good the new manager is going to be at the fine art of keeping the starters healthy. He's extremely unlikely to be as good at this as his predecessor. Farrel's own managers, when he was a player, were certainly unable to keep him healthy, so he didn't learn anything useful there, and he's spent the last four seasons as the pitching coach for the AL manager with one of the slowest hooks in the league.

    On the other hand, he'll probably do better than John Gibbons (for one thing, he inherits Gaston's pitching coach, rather than Gibbons')

    Cecil 31
    Romero 29
    Morrow 28
    Rzepczynski 23
    Litsch 21
    Drabek 20
    Stewart 4
    Reyes 3
    Mills 2
    Richmond 1
    [ Reply to This ]
    ComebyDeanChance - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#231302) #
    Seems the Cesar Cabral era in Toronto was shorter than others. No day for him when he visits the RC.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mike Green - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#231303) #
    You got "Zack" wrong too Mike :P

    Well, I guess that means that Matthew E and I deserve a detention.  Back in the day, detentions would last until 4:20.  I wonder if they now last until 4:30 just so that the detainee doesn't get any ideas about the best relief from the boredom of it.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Thomas - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#231308) #
    Of all the teams to claim Cabral, I wouldn't have expected it to be the Rays. Two days after losing him, they've apparently decided it was a mistake.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Subversive - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#231309) #
  • R. Romero 30
  • Morrow 26
  • Cecil 32
  • Drabek 26
  • Litsch 11
  • Rzepczynski 6
  • Mills 3
  • Purcey 10 
  • Someone not currently in the organization 18 

    • I could be wrong, it happened once back in 1988 (I totally thought Suzanne Vega was going to win that grammy!), but I would expect these predictions to be close to 100% accurate.

    [ Reply to This ]
    Dewey - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#231310) #
    Boys, boys.  There are no English teachers in or from Hell.  That’s one reason why it is hell.
    [ Reply to This ]
    ayjackson - Monday, March 14 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#231314) #
    • Romero 33
    • Morrow 33
    • Cecil 32
    • Litsch 32
    • Drabek 32
    [ Reply to This ]
    Ron - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 12:25 AM EDT (#231321) #
    Romero - 32
    Morrow - 31
    Cecil - 30
    Drabek - 28
    Litsch - 20
    Stewart - 10
    Rzepczyski - 5
    Ace The Mascot - 1
    Boston Rob -1
    Bree Olson - 1
    Snoop Dogg - 1
    Mike "The Situation" Sorrentino - 1
    Dana White - 1





    [ Reply to This ]
    CeeBee - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#231324) #
    Ricky Romero 33
    Brandon Morrow 30
    Brett Cecil 30
    Jesse Litsch 18
    Mark Rzepczynski 12
    Scott Richmond 1
    Kyle Drabek 25
    Zack Stewart 3
    Brad Mills 7
    Bobby Ray 3
    Somebody not in the organization 0
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mick Doherty - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#231328) #
    Ron,  if Sorrentino gets a start, the Jays may lose by forty, but it'd be the most-covered and highest-attended game in MLB history!
    [ Reply to This ]
    onecent - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#231329) #

    Very difficult to predict. The only way to do it is assume for no injuries and if there are injuries, it's all out of whack. I'd also like to see Drabek start the year in AAA.No telling if the organization is of the same mindset, but I think they should be. Drabek can still develop his secondary pitches more, and why would you have a guy doing that at the MLB level, building up his service time in the meantime. I see Litsch winning the 4th spot with Reyes and Zep battling for 5 until they bring up Dabek, with Stewart coming up late in the season. Based on that, here's how I see it:

    Romero - 33

    Morrow - 32

    Cecil - 31

    Litsch - 24

    Drabek - 20

    Zep - 11

    Reyes - 6

    Stewart - 5

    [ Reply to This ]
    AWeb - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#231332) #

    The only thing more certain than pitching injuries is the complete inability to predict them - so why not try? I see Richmond as the most likely placeholder during injuries, which will likely happen a few times. To be over-specific, and hence go for an almost impossible degree of accuracy, I see Romero missing a month with "forearm" problems (never sure what those are...I've never hurt my forearm), Morrow sitting out twice with shoulder stiffness, Litsch missing three starts after an interleague play batting incident (rib strain), and the rest filling in as needed.

    Ricky Romero 25
    Brandon Morrow 23
    Brett Cecil 31
    Jesse Litsch 26
    Mark Rzepczynski 18
    Scott Richmond 14
    Kyle Drabek 24
    Zack Stewart 5

    [ Reply to This ]
    Nolan - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#231333) #
    My guesses:

    Romero - 34
    Morrow - 29
    Cecil - 28
    Drabek - 22
    Litsch - 24
    Rzepczynski - 17
    Stewart - 5
    Richmond - 3

    On a somewhat similar note, I have a question for you Bauxites. I am going to Minneapolis for May 13 to 15. My question is this: I am attending 2 of the 3 games and would like to see RR and/or Morrow. Does anyone here have an educated guess at how the rotation will be set up? Basically, do the first or last two games me a better chance of seeing Romero and Morrow. Thanks in advance.
    [ Reply to This ]
    AWeb - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#231340) #

    Does anyone here have an educated guess at how the rotation will be set up?

    I don't know the 1-5 setup (Romero is #1, I guess : Morrow  #2, Cecil #3, Litsch (?) #4, Drabek #5, since I heard something about wanting to alternate lefty/righty), but given the youth of the rotation and the fact that the Jays aren't searching for extra innings for them, I would assume everyone stays on a 1-5 rotation, rather than a 5-day rotation for the top guys. That is, I don't think they skip the #5 spot except in the case of injuries.

    [ Reply to This ]
    Magpie - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#231343) #
    I am going to Minneapolis for May 13 to 15.

    Those are games 38, 39, and 40 on the schedule. If Farrell just turns his five starters over the first seven times, you'd be looking at the third, fourth, and fifth starters. But what are the chances of that happening? Slim, I say.

    And if (when!) something comes up, there are also five off days between Opening Day and that series for the manager to play with.

    Good luck!
    [ Reply to This ]
    Magpie - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#231345) #
    More often than not, some adjustment has been made to the five starters by the middle of May.

    Exceptions:

    The 2008 team was still running the same five starters out there (Halladay-Burnett-McGowan-Marcum-Litsch) at that point in the season, although David Purcey had been required to come up and make a couple of spot starts.

    The 2005 team was still cycling through Halladay-Lilly-Chacin-Towers-Bush (Bush would be farmed out at the end of May)

    The 2001 team was still running out Loaiza-Hamilton-Parris-Carpenter-Michalak right up through the All-Star break. Halladay, Escobar, and Lyon took over soon afterwards...
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mick Doherty - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#231346) #
    Mags, that last one ('01) might represent one of the greatest internal-only, in-season rotation overhauls in baseball history.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Ron - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#231351) #
    Ron,  if Sorrentino gets a start, the Jays may lose by forty, but it'd be the most-covered and highest-attended game in MLB history!

    I wonder if any MLB team can sign anybody off the street to a one day playing contact. Basically I'm wondering if there's anything that could prevent a team from bringing in a "celeb" to throw one pitch in the game and than pull him for a real pitcher. I know there have been a few cases in the NHL where University students were signed to a one day contract and dressed as the backup goalie.
    [ Reply to This ]
    ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, March 15 2011 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#231353) #
    It's too hard to pick the number of starts for pitchers, but I'd like to try catchers. I'm going to predict that Molina will get more starts behind the plate in 2011 than Arencibia.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Brian - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#231359) #
    Ricky Romero 31
    Brandon Morrow 29
    Brett Cecil 30
    Jesse Litsch 22
    Mark Rzepczynski 9
    Scott Richmond 3
    Kyle Drabek 18
    Zack Stewart 4
    Brad Mills 2
    Bobby Ray 0
    Dustin McGowan 0
    Jo-Jo Reyes 3
    Casey Janssen 0
    Luis Perez 0
    David Purcey 0
    Somebody not in the organization 11
    [ Reply to This ]
    bpoz - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#231365) #
    Last year the #5 spot was weak due to a shortage of quality arms and recovering from injuries players. This year I am hoping for 4 quality arms to cover most if not all the 162 games. Injuries will happen and I liked the strategy to rest Marcum at the All Star break. He got maybe 2 weeks off and may have only missed 2 starts. Maybe even trade a top 3 pitcher to a team willing to over pay.




    1)Romero 17
    2)Morrow 25
    3)Cecil 29
    4)Litch 25
    5)Drabek 21
    6)Zep 22
    7)Mills 15
    8)Stewart 5
    9)Alvarez 3
    [ Reply to This ]
    Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#231366) #
    " Basically I'm wondering if there's anything that could prevent a team from bringing in a "celeb" to throw one pitch in the game and than pull him for a real pitcher."

    All contracts need to be approved by MLB, and they can reject "stunt" players - a result of Eddie Gaedel's brief career. I don't know how often it actually comes up, but they rejected Minnie Minoso's attempt to become the oldest professional player.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Nolan - Wednesday, March 16 2011 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#231379) #

    Thanks Aweb and Magpie for the reponses.

     

    I know its a bit of a crapshoot to predict where the rotation will be at a month and a half into the season, but I figured if Romero or Morrow were slated to start, there might be a chance they would be steady enough to predict that far away.

    You're probably right Aweb, in that Jays will stick to the five man rotation instead of skipping the fifth starter. 

    I won't be too disappointed eith way as I'd jump at the chance to see cecil or Drabek as well.  Win-win.

     

    [ Reply to This ]
    TamRa - Thursday, March 17 2011 @ 12:04 AM EDT (#231406) #
    Romero - 33
    Morrow - 32
    Cecil - 32
    Litsch - 27
    Drabek - 24
    Reyes - 8
    Zep - 6


    [ Reply to This ]
    Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 17 2011 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#231423) #

    Question(s):

    If Kyle Drabek starts the season, without consideration of his service clock, isn't he a free agent after 2016?  That's when the really big money starts.  If Kyle Drabek starts the season in AAA, with consideration of his service clock, he's a free agent after 2017.   Doesn't something similar occur with Brett Lawrie?   If you're going to be spending $150.0 Million on this team, why are your rushing service clocks?

     

    [ Reply to This ]
    ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, March 17 2011 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#231428) #
    Today's start was a good step for Reyes, who off this week at least looks to be a better bet than Jessie Litsch for a rotation spot. Reyes had a tough first vs. Rollins and Victorino then got outs. Litsch couldn't get outs in successive innings from the top of the order. Reyes looks to be the better pitcher, right now at least.

    The club seems intent on letting Drabek earn a spot as one of the 5 best starters rather than delaying his arbitration eligibility or free agent eligibility. I assume their position is the first is only money, and the second is won by treating the player properly in the first place so that he'll want to stay in Toronto, rather than delaying his exit. Works for me.

    Griffin reads Farrell as saying Lawrie and Gose are in the next round of cuts. Anthopoulos has to be pleased with how his guys have shown this spring.
    [ Reply to This ]
    TamRa - Friday, March 18 2011 @ 04:05 AM EDT (#231434) #
    with so VERY many options that the team considers to be quality choices (if i read the tea leaves correctly - i can't fathom the interest in Drabek breaking camp with the team.

    I'm kind of hoping they are just "making all the right noises" and will include him in the final cuts under the excuse of just having too many guys to protect (sort of like they did Eveland last year albeit with a lot less pressure)

    I guess my Zep bias is showing but i don't want the Drabek express to run him over.if in fact Litsch in the 4th guy and it's an ostensibly three man race for the #5...if Drabek gets the start, Reyes will almost certainly get a bullpen job and Zep is off to Vegas again, with no obvious opening to come back and Stewart bearing down on him too.

    If Reyes gets the start, there's room for Zep in the pen - at least as long as there are injuries.

    I assume at this point it's too much to hope for that Zep would win the #5 though that is still my first choice.

    give Drabek six weeks or so in the minors (long enough to wipe the current month's service time off the books and delay free agency as described above...might take 8 weeks but no more than that) and if the front five are kicking ass still at that point, well, that's a heck of a problem to have..


    [ Reply to This ]
    Hodgie - Friday, March 18 2011 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#231436) #
    I find it hard to get worked up over the service clock of a pitcher. Given the unpredictable nature of pitching injuries and the impossibility that predicting future health has become, if the organization feels that Drabek is MLB ready now I would rather he spend those bullets in the majors rather than Las Vegas. If after 6 years you have a healthy and effective starter that you have to pay a year earlier, well that is a good problem to have.
    [ Reply to This ]
    Mike Green - Friday, March 18 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#231437) #
    Exactly right, Hodgie.  The key question is whether Drabek is in fact ready, and you'll get many different opinions about that.

    Service time considerations are more important for position players than for pitchers.  We believe that it is very likely that Brett Lawrie's age 28 season in the major leagues will be better than his age 21 season,  but for a pitcher  (and particularly one who has had arm surgery) we have no such confidence. 

    [ Reply to This ]
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