If you've been paying attention to draft coverage you're probably familiar with hitters the Jays could potentially take in Round 1 - Gordon, Tulowitzki, Zimmerman, Braun and Clement (although the first three are likely to be taken prior to the Jays pick).
One thing that I noticed about the players listed below is that most of them are in the SEC. There's a couple reasons for this. One, the SEC is one of the top conferences in the NCAA. Two, many of the parks in the SEC are severe pitchers parks, particularly Mississippi, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi St, South Carolina, and Georgia who all have historically had park factors under 80. Combine those two factors and the hitters in this league have understated stats.
But after that pick when the Jays select in the early to mid-rounds, beginning with their 3rd round pick somewhere around pick 88 (depending on whether Drew and Weaver sign prior to the draft) and every 30 picks thereafter, who might they be interested in?
One thing that I noticed about the players listed below is that most of them are in the SEC. There's a couple reasons for this. One, the SEC is one of the top conferences in the NCAA. Two, many of the parks in the SEC are severe pitchers parks, particularly Mississippi, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi St, South Carolina, and Georgia who all have historically had park factors under 80. Combine those two factors and the hitters in this league have understated stats.
Having said that, here's seven players to watch for on draft day:
Eli Iorg, OF, Tennessee 6'3", 200, 3/14/83 Baseball America Rank: 75 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 230 0.391 0.442 0.696 19 28 2004 238 0.324 0.370 0.466 16 34Yes, that's the son of Garth Iorg. Baseball America described Iorg as 'toolsy' which generally means a player's numbers aren't as good as one would expect. However, Iorg has had strong numbers for the Volunteers this season where you'd probably consider him even if he wasn't a 'toolsy' player. Given that combination chances are good that Iorg will be a 2nd round pick, but if he lasted until the third round the Jays could very well have another Iorg in the organization.
Chase Headley, 3B, Tennessee 6'2", 195, 5/9/84 Baseball America Rank: 128 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 196 0.383 0.534 0.679 57 20 2004 112 0.295 0.389 0.393 17 14 2003 194 0.330 0.453 0.464 39 35There's a couple interesting things here. One, his hitting line is quite impressive, and has spiked from last year. Two, the BB/K rate is incredible - it's Jayce Tingler-esque (Tingler was 48/9 his final year in college).
Brian Pettway, OF, Mississippi 6'1", 205, 7/29/83 Baseball America Rank: 129 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 215 0.400 0.472 0.721 31 38 2004 203 0.305 0.373 0.448 23 29 2003 203 0.266 0.371 0.468 28 47I had been keeping close tabs on Stephen Head, the 1B/P from Mississippi, as a potential pick of the Jays in the first round. As time has passed that's become less likely as he hasn't performed as well as expected this year. At one point Mike Green pointed out that Head wasn't even the best hitter on his team this year - some guy named Pettway was. So looking a little closer at Pettway I was surprised to see his hitting line - his stats spiked this year, apparently because he lost 20 pounds. Baseball America has him ranked at 129, but I'd guess that one of the college oriented teams would take a shot at him in the top 100.
Mike Costanzo, 3B, Coastal Carolina 6'3", 205, 9/9/83 Baseball America Rank: 123 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 197 0.386 0.543 0.665 62 52 2004 231 0.359 0.479 0.740 50 52 2003 173 0.318 0.374 0.509 15 43According to Baseball America Costanzo showed 'premium power' in the Cape Cod League in 2004, and was rated their 19th best prospect last summer. The Jays have seemingly favored players who have performed well in the Cape League in the past (for instance, Lind, Klosterman, and Metropoulos last year) - it's typically the only time to scout players using wood bats - so they might be giving Costanzo a long look this year.
Clete Thomas, OF, Auburn 6'0", 185, 11/14/83 Baseball America Rank: 99 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 220 0.327 0.426 0.550 32 57 2004 216 0.329 0.429 0.514 35 41 2003 256 0.297 0.356 0.391 22 46In Baseball America's top 200 draft rankings they noted that Thomas' performance 'never matched his plus across-the-board tools'. Granted, his numbers aren't outstanding, but they're still pretty solid (although a lot of Ks) and as noted above he plays in a pitcher's park against good competition. Thomas played in the Cape Cod League last summer and was rated the 20th best prospect by BA.
Josh Bell, C, Auburn 6'0", 200, 7/3/84 Baseball America Rank: 114 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 224 0.339 0.402 0.558 20 38 2004 226 0.274 0.321 0.438 12 65 2003 200 0.295 0.338 0.490 11 47After Clement and Teagarden there aren't a lot of top college catching prospects, and Bell is one of the better ones. Like many players his stats have jumped in his third year of college, and Bell won't turn 21 until July.
Seth Johnston, 2B/SS, Texas 6'3", 200, 3/12/83 Baseball America Rank: 80 Year ABs Ave Obp Slg BB K 2005 226 0.389 0.437 0.597 19 20 2004 267 0.296 0.340 0.457 16 41 2003 95 0.253 0.290 0.389 3 17Johnston is the lone senior on this list. Because of that there's a chance that he'll be 'overdrafted' because his bonus will be less. With a larger budget and no second round pick there won't be the need for the Jays to take seniors as in years past, but the Jays like Big 12 players (their top 3 choices last year were all Big 12 players) and they may feel he's the best on the board and take him regardless of his class.
Next week I'll take a look at the pitchers that the Jays could take after they make their first pick.
