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Over 300 posts in the Overbay trade thread and I don't even think anyone even brought up Overbay's splits once. How are we supposed to be 'stat geeks' if we don't go any further than OPS? I'll get the ball rolling.

Here are Overbay's rate stats the past two years:
2004	579	0.301	0.385	0.478	0.863	0.084	0.177
2005	537	0.276	0.367	0.449	0.816	0.091	0.173
Total	1116	0.289	0.379	0.464	0.843	0.091	0.176
While Overbay slipped a bit in 2005 it was all in batting average - his ISO BB was improved and his ISO SLG was essentially the same.

The big difference is that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .363 in 2004 and .307 in 2005. He'll probably settle into something between those two years.


Vs LHP	296	0.284	0.333	0.486	0.820	0.050	0.203
Vs RHP	820	0.290	0.394	0.456	0.850	0.104	0.166
I found this interesting. Overbay predictably does better overall against RHPs than LHPs (using OPS). However, how he gets to that point is interesting. Look at the ISO BB and ISO SLG. Overbay has a high walk rate against RHPs and a mediocre slugging rate. On the other hand, against LHPs his walk rate is low while his slugging rate is high. His batting average against RHPs and LHPs is more or less the same. I'm not sure how to explain this - perhaps Overbay's approach is different depending on the handedness of the pitcher.

Random Stats!:

* In his minor league career Overbay hit .336/.404/.523 in 1971 ABs

* Overbay had a GB/FB ratio of 1.88:1 which ranked 12th out of 143 players this season. Unless that changes I wouldn't expect much of an increase in HRs. (Interestingly Brad Wilkerson was 138 out of 143 - that is, an extreme fly ball hitter.)

* Overbay ranked 31st in pitches/PA at 3.96. (Wilkerson was 7th at 4.21)

* Overbay's line drive % was 21.2%, above the NL average of 20.7%.

Park Factors!:

In terms of park factors here are how Milwaukee and Toronto stack up against each other (based on the 3 year park factors at BTF ):

Team	        R	H	2B	HR	BB	SO
Toronto	        1.08	1.06	1.10	1.22	0.98	1.04
Milwaukee	1.02	0.94	1.00	1.08	0.96	1.02
Based just on the park factors Overbay should improve on his .289/.379/.464 line. His ZIPS projection, again at BTF, for 2006 is .303/.390/.476. I think most Jays fans would be happy with that line.
Overbay By The Numbers | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:09 AM EST (#135755) #
The ZIPS projection looks a little high, but Overbay is indeed a fine hitter for the reasons Pistol has detailed.
Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:13 AM EST (#135756) #
Anything above .370/.470 OBP/SLG would make me very happy to have Overbay on my team. My own personal prediction? He'll hit 20 homers for the first time, but fall well short of 30 (24-26 or so) and have an OBP/SLG of .380/.490. If there's no more roster movement, I think he'll be the best player on the team (though I feel Wells will hook himself to the rejuvenation machine and outslug him by at least 10 points). If Overbay turns out to be a hitter the Jays acquire, and not *the* hitter (i.e. if they acquire another hitter able to outperform .380/.490 without sacrificing infield defense) I think the Jays look like the best team in the East...
Donkit R.K. - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:14 AM EST (#135757) #
And, yes, I also should be wearing one of those "I'm an optimistic moron" shirts...
Tyler - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:31 AM EST (#135765) #
Cafe Press will make those shirts, you know. A fine fundraiser for da Box.
CSHunt68 - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:34 AM EST (#135767) #
Those Zips projections always seem a bit high to my thinking ... just my gut talking ...
Chuck - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 11:34 AM EST (#135768) #
Very encouraging to see Overbay hold his own against LHP. It makes the lineup that much less vulnerable to LH relievers.

Overbay really is Olerud lite, isn't he? Gap power. Hits for average. Draws walks. Good glove.

People will just have to resist the urge to not get hung up on the absence of big HR numbers and, instead, appreciate his broad base of skills.

And if the team could warn security to keep Cito Gaston from showing up at BP and trying to convert Overbay into a dead pull hitter, that would help.
John Northey - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:23 PM EST (#135782) #
Overbay vs Olerud was the comparison done by Gord Ash yesterday morning on 590. Easy comparison, but the problem is Overbay made it to the majors at an older age.

At 28 Overbay hit 276/367/449 - his 2nd full season
At 28 Olerud hit 294/400/489 for the Mets - his 8th full season.

Overbay's numbers fit Olerud's eary seasons (pre-93) but Olerud was only 24 in 1993. That is a major difference. Overbay should continue as is. He will not become John Olerud though. A poor man's verson? Perhaps. But not really that close.
Barfieldsgun - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:24 PM EST (#135783) #
Based on his patience,abilty to make contact and gap like
power - Overbay seems like an ideal hitter for the two hole. Does anyone know what slot he hit in last year?
MatO - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#135785) #
I've heard that Overbay is a fine defensive player but I haven't actually seen any numbers. It would be nice to add the defensive side to the above offensive numbers.
Matthew E - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:33 PM EST (#135792) #
LYLE OVERBAY will also BE VERY LOYAL and, as for his defense, he'll get to EVERY BALL, YO.
Jobu - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:45 PM EST (#135794) #
And I think he throws left too, just to complete the Olerud-Lite angle.
Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:48 PM EST (#135795) #
We aim to please, MatO. Overbay's career Rate, according to BP is 110, with defensive runs above average of 10 to 15 per season. He was third in the NL in defensive win shares at first base behind Derrek Lee and Todd Helton. These measures have their difficulties, and it would be interesting to see the UZR for comparison.
Mike D - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 12:53 PM EST (#135797) #
On the subjective front...Having scouted the Brewers last year, Overbay has soft hands and handles throws well. He doesn't have Mientkiewicz-like ability at first, but he does have the range of, say, an Erstad.

But man oh man, is he a slow baserunner. He joins Shea Hillenbrand in the Automatic DP Club every time he grounds out with a man on first and less than two out.
Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:12 PM EST (#135799) #
The major difference between Overbay and the Olerud/Keith Hernandez/Mark Grace line of first basemen is that he strikes out much more often than he walks. With those Ks and his lack of speed and his medium range power, he's not a good bet to hit .300. He's still a good hitter, but not quite in their class.
Pistol - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 01:14 PM EST (#135801) #
Olerud had two big years, but otherwise was usually in the 110-130 OPS+ range (and a career 129 OPS+).
Year	Ag	OPS+
2003	26	92
2004	27	127
2005	28	113
Year	Ag	OPS+
1995	26	110
1996	27	110
1997	28	136
Olerud had a big head start, but at a similar age they were having similar production.
Jordan - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#135818) #
But man oh man, is he a slow baserunner. He joins Shea Hillenbrand in the Automatic DP Club every time he grounds out with a man on first and less than two out.

Maybe a good reason to consider batting him second in the lineup? Anyway, if Overbay posts a .290/.370/.460 line, I'd be more than satisfied. Playing half his games at the RC, he'll crack 40 doubles without breaking a sweat, and might have a shot at 50.

Ever wonder what Johnny O might have accomplished with even a year of minor-league experience? He is, if I recall correctly, the last major-leaguer to jump directly to the pros from the draft, and while I have no complaints at all about his production as a Blue Jay, I do sometimes think about mighta-beens. It took Olerud 1,000 career at-bats to crack a .270 career batting average; might he have gotten to .300 faster if he hadn't had to learn on the job? Maybe not, but....

binnister - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 07:44 PM EST (#135894) #
VBF - Friday, December 09 2005 @ 10:15 PM EST (#135901) #
Oh, that's bauxite Marc. He's minor league extraordinaire.
Pistol - Sunday, December 11 2005 @ 10:26 AM EST (#136069) #
As Wavebruner pointed out Bauxite Marc got a few comments from someone with the Jays on players acquired and lost over recently over at Blue Jay Way:

As always, summarize and link, do not copy entire text of other's material.
Overbay By The Numbers | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.