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How frequently do teams find stud pitchers after the first (and supplemental first) round?

I was curious myself so I decided to look at rounds 2-10 from the 1990-1999 drafts.  That gives 10 years of drafts and enough time for pitchers to establish themselves.  The new draft database at makes this really easy.

A data table..... Magpie would be proud!

  2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1990         M Hampton        
1991     Paul Byrd       J Schmidt    
              B Radke    
              D Lowe    
1992 Jon Leiber                
1993 J Suppan M Clement     B Moehler        
1994      Vazquez        
1995  Washburn  Dempster R Ortiz  
  AJ Burnett    
  B Tomko B Arroyo              
1996       B Penny         D Davis
1997 Randy Wolf       Tim Hudson        
1999 J Lackey      Robertson Erik Bedard    Capuano    
          A Harang        

In rounds 2-10 over 10 years there were 26 pitchers who became at least decent starters, and in some cases I'm being generous.  If you take out the second round there's just 20 over a ten year period, or 2 each year on average.

What's odd is the 8th round in 1991.  Schmidt, Radke, Lowe and Traschel all came out of that round and Paul Byrd is the only other successful starter in rounds 2-10.

So if you're going to end up with a stud pitcher you better select him early in the draft because there aren't very many pitchers slipping through the cracks.
Finding Starters in the Draft | 12 comments | Create New Account
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ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#169376) #
Riccardi looks like he isn't doing too bad in that regard in his first couple of years drafting: Bush in the 2nd in '02 and Marcum in the 3rd in '03. If someone like Janssen or Banks comes around to be starter, then he did pretty well at picking starters in those first 3 drafts (obviously he got some help by drafting primarily pitchers in 02 and 03).
Jdog - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#169378) #

Any idea how many of these were drafted out of College/High School

To me it would seem harder to find a decent starter after the first round if you are taking college guys as they are more of a known commodity, and if they are known to be good are going to be snatched up early.  However it seems like JP has had some success with college pitchers after round 1.

Pistol - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#169379) #
M Hampton - HS                       
Paul Byrd - C
J Schmidt - HS       
B Radke - HS       
D Lowe - HS     
Traschel - C           
Jon Leiber - C
J Suppan - HS
M Clement - HS               
B Moehler - C                   
Vazquez - HS                       
Washburn - C     
Dempster - HS   
R Ortiz - C     
AJ Burnett - HS           
B Tomko - C
B Arroyo - HS                                         
B Penny - HS                       
D Davis - HS
Randy Wolf - C                     
Tim Hudson - C                   
J Lackey - C       
Robertson - C   
Erik Bedard - HS           
Capuano - C       
A Harang - C

13 HS
13 C                      
John Northey - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#169385) #
Interesting stuff.

Thought I'd take a look at that tool and checked for pitchers in the 1990 draft. In round 1 there were 8 high school pitchers taken, 12 college pitchers. 20 out of 40 picks were pitchers. The Jays took high schooler Steve Karsay who had some success elsewhere and was traded in '93 for Rickey Henderson.

Of those 8 HS pitchers 7 made the majors but just one had a winning record (Gabe White, via the Expos, 34-26 4.51 ERA 17 saves). Karsay led in saves at 41 and those were the only guys over 6 for saves. The only 2 first rounders to get over 50 wins were both college guys, Alex Fernandez and Mike Mussina who are also the only first rounders with ERA's below 4. The first high schooler to have a winning record with more than 2 wins was James Baldwin (4th round 79-74 with a 5.01 ERA).

Interesting for a very limited look at high schoolers as first round picks.
Jdog - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#169388) #
Thanks Pistol
Gerry - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#169389) #
With the odds that low then JP, Jon Lalonde and team have done well to find Bush, Marcum, maybe Janssen over the last five years.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#169391) #
It is a bit tricky to evaluate the odds.  Some of the pitchers end up having a decent career in the pen.  Bob Wickman was drafted in the 2nd round in 1990, for instance. It seems that about 10 pitchers are drafted per round. 

There were three significant pitchers drafted in the 1990 draft- Alex Fernandez and Mike Mussina in the first round, and Andy Pettitte in the 22nd.  Eddie Guardado was a late-round pick.  In the 1991 draft, in addition to the 8th round bonanza, Jason Isringhausen went very late. In 1992, Brendan Donnelly and Bobby Howry went late.   In 1994, Tim Hudson was a 35th round pick. 

In 2002, 2003 and 2004,  Ricciardi drafted Bush, Maureau, Peterson, Pleiness, Grant, Leonard, Savickas, Banks, Marcum, Isenberg, James, Core, Mulholland, Vermilyea, Purcey, Jackson, Danny Hill, Janssen and Dicken in the first 10 rounds.  The returns so far have been pretty good, but it is way, way too early to evaluate this aspect of his tenure.  Talk to me again in 3-5 years.

John Northey - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#169394) #
But it is fun to judge JP on limited data :)

2002 draft - pitchers
55 made it to the majors so far out of 704 drafted - 7.8%
Jays drafted 21 of those with 2 making it - 9.5%

Jays to make it
David Bush - 25-32 4.48 ERA - 2nd round
Adam Peterson - 0-0 3.75 ERA - 4th round

20 have reached double digits in wins out of the 46 who have a decision. Peak for saves is 4.

Scott Kazmir probably the best so far at 25-23 3.77 ERA - drafted immediately after the Jays took Adams. Jeff Francis is at 35-29 4.72 ERA in Colorado (first round, Jays had no opportunity to draft). Joe Blaton at 33-27 4.13 ERA for the A's is next, drafted after the Jays took Adams. Jesse Crain at 20-12 3.16 ERA was a late 2nd round pick.

Lots of talent there. Chuck James in the 20th round has worked out nicely for Atlanta at 16-8 3.71 ERA. The Rangers got Kameron Loe in that round also (13-17 5.03 ERA). Two guys in the 40+ round area made it in Ty Taubenheim (1-5 4.89) and Brian Bannister (3-4 4.07).

So far 12 out of 21 first round pitchers made it to the majors, most with some success. 4 out of the 7 high school pitchers are in the majors all with some success (Zack Greinke at 16-32 5.00 for KC is the worst).

So, ignoring HS pitchers in round 1 in favour of Russ Adams might have been a mistake, but only if JP would've taken Kazmir or Matt Cain.

For comparison purposes...
Jays - 3 made it, 2 with real playing time
Yankees - 1 made it, Brad Halsey 14-19 4.84 ERA
Red Sox - 2 made it, Jon Lester 7-2 4.76 ERA, Bannister
Orioles - 5 made it, 3 with real playing time
Devil Rays - 3 made it, all getting a real shot with just Upton doing anything with it

Detroit, with Dave Dombrowski as GM who was rumoured as a potential Jay GM, have 4 making it, 2 with real playing time both drafted after the first round and doing well.

Perhaps that is where we should be comparing. Dombrowski vs JP as that was the choice the Jays had iirc.

In 2003 3 guys for Detroit made it, none have played much
2003 Jays are Hill, Marcum, Mastney, and Roberts

2004 Tigers are Verlander (#2 pick, so not a fair comparision) and that is it
2004 Jays are Zach Jackson, Lind, Janssen

2005 no one has made it for either, while for '06 the Tigers got Andrew Miller here already (16 1/3 IP, includes 6 shutout innings this season in his one start). 6th overall pick so not a chance the Jays would've had him.
Dave Rutt - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#169396) #
Off topic: does anyone have any news on the TBBL? I seem to remember someone saying it would start up before the end of May but I haven't heard anything.
Flex - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#169405) # has posted its predictions for the top 30 picks tomorrow and they have the Jays taking catcher J.P. Arencibia at 16 and "command and control" pitcher James Simmons at 21.

Any thoughts?
Pistol - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#169409) #
Jays to make it
David Bush - 25-32 4.48 ERA - 2nd round
Adam Peterson - 0-0 3.75 ERA - 4th round

And De Jong!

Anders - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#169470) #
Rob Neyer linked to this article in his daily links over on his ESPN blog. Congrats Pistol.
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