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A look at who is being projected to the Jays:

The BP projection is as of Wednesday afternoon. Arencibia is a bit of a surprise as I haven't seen his name in the first round in any projection recently, but Goldstein wrote that "Toronto is reportedly all over college catcher J.P. Arencibia and is suddenly worried that he won’t be around at 21."

Baseball America said something similar on Arencibia in the last 12 hours - "The Blue Jays are locked in on Tennessee catcher J.P. Arencibia and know they almost certainly can get him at No. 21. So they'll spend their top pick on a high school position player such as Kozma, Dominguez, Mesoraco or California catcher Travis d'Arnaud".

Keith Law at ESPN wrote this morning: "The Blue Jays appear to be focused on acquiring a shortstop with one of their top three picks, and Kozma has moved ahead of Nick Noonan on their board." He also expects them to take Weathers if he makes it to 16.

Personally, I'd be very happy if the Jays came out of the first round with any two of the following (assuming a HS pitcher isn't a possibility):
  • Matt Dominguez
  • Devin Mesoraco
  • Beau Mills
  • Nick Noonan
I don't see Dominguez making it to 16, and there's a slight chance the Pirates take Mesoraco or Mills at 4.

Draft starts at 2 pm today with picks being made every 5 minutes. The Jays will pick at approximately 3:15 and 3:45 in the first round. A thread with profiles and stats (when applicable) of the Jays players selected will be up shortly after the Jays make their selections.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 10:43 PM EDT (#169410) #
As I said, Arencibia didn't look good in the scouting video.  Goldstein has Porcello, Mills and Laporta all falling into the 20s, after both the Jays picks.  That would be a disappointment.
Craig B - Wednesday, June 06 2007 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#169412) #
Letting Porcello go would be pretty nutty, wouldn't it?
Ron - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#169413) #
If a top 3 talent like Porcello slips all the way down to 16, the Jays should grab him even if his agent is Scott Boras. Heyman has a great article on Scott Boras at I don't want to sound like a broken record, but once again the article (or you could say Boras) shows paying above slot for premium talent is generally a good strategy. Here's a blurb from the article:

"Boras counters by saying that these slots are "artificial" and not based on a player's true ability or value and that baseball decision makers are putting themselves in peril by adhering to these guidelines. "He's directing them to pass on better players, and thus risking their jobs," Boras says. He offers as example Texas' passing on Jered Weaver and his $5 million request in 2003 and choosing Thomas Diamond for $2 million instead. Weaver got $4 million from Anaheim, which picked after Texas, then won his first nine starts in 2006 and helped Anaheim win the division."

You don't think the Rangers wished they paid Weaver the 5 million he asked for rather than the 2 milion they paid Diamond now?

My prediction is that the Jays pick Matt Dominguez with the 16th pick and Peter Kozma with the 21st pick.
Eric Purdy - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:00 AM EDT (#169415) #
The Jays under Ricciardi have never showed a willingness to exceed slot, so Porcello is definitely out. It's the same reason we don't have Cameron Maybin tearing up our minors right now. Whoever's responsible for it, be it Ricciardi, Godfrey or even Ted Rogers himself, should be ashamed. We're not going to get anywhere being Bolshevik Bud's puppet.

If the jays end up taking a guy like James Simmons at 21, I might throw a chair through the wall.

FranklyScarlet - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#169417) #

Here is an article from today's New York Times on Mike Moutsakas and Matt Dominguez:





Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#169418) #
I don't want to sound like a broken record, but once again the article (or you could say Boras) shows paying above slot for premium talent is generally a good strategy

Keith Law said in an ESPN chat that he did a study a couple years ago and the Boras clients were just a little bit better than the players taken at the same point in the draft (not accounting for any cost difference).

But I do agree in certain individual cases that it's worthwhile.
Barry Bonnell - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#169420) #

For what it's worth on the Fan this morning J.P said if all goes according to plan the Jays will be selecting a high school player with their first pick.

He also said Ohka's situation would be addressed later on today.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#169422) #
We're not going to get anywhere being Bolshevik Bud's puppet

Owners of the world, divide?  I don't think Goldstein's scenario is too likely to happen anyways.
Mark - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#169423) #
BA's final mock is up and it looks good for the Jays.

#16 Matt Dominguez
#21 J.P. Arencibia

In the past the BA final mock has come very close to the real thing.

Ryan Day - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#169425) #

It's one thing to spend big money on an elite and advance pitcher like Weaver, who was very nearly major-league-ready.

But a high school pitcher is naturally a much riskier proposition. Assuming BP is right... would you spend $10 million on Porcello?

I actually think it might be worth the risk to draft him and negotiate; after all, the Jays have another draft pick to use on a safer choice.

Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#169427) #
Jon Mayo's latest projection is now linked at the top.  He's on the Mills/Kozma combo with Keith Law.  Of course, in his projection I can't seeing the Jays pass on Jason Heyward at #16 and I can't see Doolittle going that high.

BP and BA both have the Jays taking Arencibia (of course, it's very possible they have the same sources since Goldstein is a BA guy).

Things to hope for as the draft unfolds:
  • Surprise picks ahead of the Jays like Nick Schmidt, Sean Doolittle and Casey Weathers (although at this point Schmidt and Weathers wouldn't be a surprise, but would be welcomed, although I don't think the Jays with Weathers is the worst thing in the world).
  • Players not falling based on signability - Porcello, Weiters, Moustakas, (assuming the Jays wouldn't take a high bonus player)
  • Lots of HS pitching going early - Aumont, Beavan, Main, Bumgarner, Smoker, Harvey, Alderson (assuming the Jays are avoiding HS pitchers in round 1)
Mike Green - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#169428) #
Heyward is a beast.  His chance of being a very good major league first baseman is excellent.  I would take him over Mills.
Sister - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#169430) #
I'm really starting to have a problem with Boras having such a strong influence on the draft. I know this is an old issue that has been discussed in the past, but shouldn't the best players go to the worst teams?

Reading the BA final mock and seeing Porcello and Wieters slide down the draft simply because they are Boras  clients and are being (over)  priced really disappoints me. I wish MLB would institute a hard salary slot and be done with it. No Boras needed until you get your first major league contract.

HollywoodHartman - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#169431) #
If Beau Mills is still there at 16 do the Jays take him? Mills and LaPorta would make me a very happy Jays fan.
Gerry - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#169433) #
I think this years draft is more unpredictable than the last several years.  Jim Callis from BA correctly forecasted most of the first round picks in 2005 and 2006 but today looks like it is tougher to forecast.
HollywoodHartman - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#169434) #
By the way, everyone come on down to the Baux chat to discuss todays game and the draft!
Craig B - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#169451) #

HH, Mills is a pure DH hit a bunch of home runs for one season, at altitude, in a series of fairly small ballparks.

If things broke *right* for him, I suspect he'd be Josh Phelps.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#169453) #
Hmm. Heyward, Mesoraco and Porcello still there.
S.K. - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#169454) #

Oops... no more Heyward.

Things were shaping up nicely, and now four straght picks from my "realistic maybe" list for the Jays have gone.

And stop teasing us with Porcello, Mike... you know it's not going to happen...

Mike Green - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#169455) #
rpriske - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#169456) #

Ahrens and Arencibia.


I like Ahrens, but I'm not so sold on the catcher.

John Northey - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#169459) #
Porcello is still out there as the first round is up to pick #25. I figure he has told everyone some crazy demand and no one is willing to consider it. Given he is coming out of high school he has all the leverage right now.

Given that, if you are the Jays and have a stack of picks coming up do you go for it anyways? Call up Ted and see if he is willing to take a big cash risk on him? Take him and see if he'll do a Bo Jackson - namely appear unsignable then sign anyways? The next pick for the Jays is #38 then #45, then #56. Which do you risk tossing away?

Of course, the Yankees might take him first.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#169461) #
Hmm. Heyward, Mesoraco and Porcello still there.


I thought someone was falling to the Jays after the Laporta pick, but Nick Schmidt did go to the Giants or Mariners so Dominguez and Heyward didn't make it.
Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#169462) #
And the Tigers went with Porcello.

At least the Yankees didn't get him.

Pistol - Thursday, June 07 2007 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#169479) #
For you Canucks out there.... Kyle Lotzkar went to the Reds in the sandwich round at #53
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