Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - TDIB 14 April 2008: Top of the World, Ma!

TDIB 14 April 2008: Top of the World, Ma!

OK, they're actually tied for first.

And we're not even halfway through April.

But hey - it's better than being 2-10.

The Beej was back, and cashed an exciting save in his first outing in exactly 365 days (this was a Leap Year, remember!). And the Jays finally won a one-run game, after coming out on the short end four times already in this young season.

A sweep on the road for the first time in almost two years...

A sweep in Texas for the first time in almost twenty-three years...

Did I mention... First Place?

Elsewhere Greg Maddux, the old Mad Dog himself, picked up career win number 349 on the same day that a very nice piece by Tim Keown appeared on ESPN. I recommend it highly. Players are always telling Maddux stories - he's truly a mythic figure to other ball players - and Keown provides some dandies. Yes, it turns you really can catch him with your eyes closed. He will hit the glove.

Posted by Magpie on Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:55 AM EDT.

TDIB 14 April 2008: Top of the World, Ma! | 30 comments | Create New Account

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Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#182680) #

So add that to the Maddux scouting report: bats right, throws right, farts left.

There's yer ERA and yer WHIP and yer FIP, and then there's yer TMI.

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#182682) #

Surely this would be the right place to recycle Curt Schilling's Greg Maddux story:

I watched a game about 10 years ago, Maddux was pitching in SF, bases loaded, Dave Martinez hitting. 2-2 count. Maddux throws ball three, way way outside, a fastball, then goes 3-2 and throws a picture perfect change up, not even close to the zone. Martinez swings, inning over.

It stuck with me so much that the next year when I saw him I asked him about it. He remembered it, he told me on 2-2, the crowd was pumped in SF, he had great command of his changeup, he knew that 3-2 Martinez would sit FB and would be swinging and that the crowd would be even louder, the situation even more tense on the hitter as well as the runners would be going, always a nice distraction, something he wasn't sure of 2-2, so he intentionally threw ball 3 to ramp up the situation, lure Martinez into a false sense of security, then pulled the string on him.

Schilling told this story on Sons of Sam Horn, but I can't find the original link. He was off on one detail - the bases weren't loaded, there were runners on first and second. The Braves had a 1-0 lead (which would be the final score). Martinez was pinch-hitting for the pitcher. June 1, 1994.

chris_jays - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#182684) #

Based on that link it does apear that the bases were in fact loaded.

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#182685) #

Is there anyway to check - but those 6 BB's by Maddox have to be a personal high for a game (or darn close). What makes the story even more remarkable, was that yes, he had walked 6 guys in the game, and yet he still had enough confidence in his control to purposefully let a count go to 3 - 2 and then throw an off speed pitch in an absolutely crucial situation.

Marvelous. I really eat up these stories that turn your regular, 350 game winner into a legend of truly mythical proportions.

Back when I used to run baseball camps for a couple summers during my undergrad, I always did the pitching station (if only I could 80 on a radar gun, I'd be a softer tossing version of Brian Bannister!) because its always been my biggest passion with baseball.

Maddox was the guy I wanted kids to pitch like and used him as an example every single time I started a lesson. ("Who here has heard of Greg Maddox? Yeah, the guy who won 4 Cy Young aways in a row. Well, THAT guy can barely hit 85 on a radar gun, and he's done alright for himself. Why? Because of.....). I wanted them to understand that well yes, that 95 MPH fastball sure is nice, but not necessary. What is necessary, to be a pitcher, regardless of how hard you throw the ball, is where you throw it and how you change your speeds.

But unfortunately for Maddox, chicks dig the long ball...

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#182686) #

Yikes! He hit a batter too! 7 batters on base as a result of poor control, in one game from Greg Maddox?

I need to lie down...

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#182687) #

My apologies for the triple post: Arg, I knew the ox looked funny. My sincere apologies to Mr. Maddux.

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#182695) #

Based on that link it does appear that the bases were in fact loaded.

DUH!. I gotta apologize to Curt Schilling now?

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#182697) #

those 6 BB's by Maddox have to be a personal high for a game

They might as well be. No intentional walks in that Giants game. He walked 7 Expos once, in his first tour with the Cubs, but two were intentional. And the other five times he walked 6 guys, there was always at least one IBB (and twice there 3) among them.

By the way, he went 5-0, 2.39 in those 7 games - games where he issued at least 6 walks - all but one of them was at least a Quality Start, and one of them was a CG shutout.

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#182701) #

The Mad Dog's best game was probably this one, in 2001 against the Brewers. He walked Belliard leading off, gave up a two-out double to Devon White in the fourth and a two-out single to Jose Hernandez in the fifth. He then retired the last thirteen batters, striking out six in a row at one point, and a career best 14 altogether. He wins1-0 with a CG shutout - I think it's a Game Score of 96.

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#182706) #

Your post led me to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_Score

... which is effectively useless for providing us anything useful, aside from the "ohh neato" factor that list provides.

Where can I find a site that gives me up to date information on game scores? I would like to look at the Jays! Google searching leads me to many sites with good explanations for what game score is, but nothing that I can find that gives me daily numbers.

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#182707) #

ESPN's player pages generally include Game Scores; so do the deeper player pages at baseball-reference.com. In each case, the link is to Halladay in 2007.

And generally at the end of the season, I put together a post that reviews the Jays rotation, and I use Game Scores to organize it. Here's the one for 2007,

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#182709) #

Whoops - I linked to Doc's 2007 Splits - you'd want his GameLogs, which are updated to include the current season.

greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#182711) #

In BP's "Under the Knife" update, Will Carroll criticizes the Jays' use of BJ. He basically implies that the front office is rushing him back at the expense of BJ's long-term health (possibly because the current front office might not be around for long). Carroll writes that Ryan's velocity was down, that he wasn't missing bats, and that "the Jays can't be very excited by what they saw."

Were we watching the same game? I thought BJ looked fine. In his first major-league outing in a year, he was hitting 89 (only 1-2 MPH off his typical best fastball) and locating the ball well. He didn't K anyone, but he was aggressive and pitched well after the leadoff triple. Even the triple came on a decent two-strike pitch low in the zone.

Obviously time will tell about BJ, but Carroll's report seems premature at best and inaccurate at worst.

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#182713) #

Does BPs' attitude towards the Blue Jays remind anyone else of a jilted lover?

I thought you were my sabermetric darling, and you turned out to be somebody else. I HATE you!

Frank Markotich - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#182714) #

Amen, Magpie.

Since JP had been Beane's associate in Oakland, they figured he did spreadsheets in his basement during his spare time.

When this proved not to be the case, BPro wants to repossess his beanie and propellor and kick him out of the Sabremetric Tree House.

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#182715) #

Down in the zone or not, velocity had nothing to do with that 0 - 2 triple. It was over the middle of the plate, and a hitter protecting on 0 -2 is going to hit that pitch, 99 times out of 100.

Thanks for the link/s Magpie.

First 2 times through the rotation, Jay's starters scores: (I've been wanting to post this since John Northey posted the game scores of our opposing pitchers!)

Note: For each pitcher, going from left to right is their first start, 2nd start, 3rd start, etc...

Halladay: 52, 55, 76
Burnett: 56, 19, 40
McGowan: 57, 49
Marcum: 66, 68
Listch: 48, 52

Out of 12 starts I count 1 real lemon, and 1 not so great (which we won anyways)... if we continue to get this kind of quality starting from our starters, we better start winning more then 7 out of 12!

I calculate our "good starts" at approx. 80%, while our winning % this year is 58.3%. What would be a reasonable winning percentage to expect from a quality start? Should teams win 75% of the games they get a quality start? Is there any sort of predefined percentage that we've learned over time?

Magpie - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#182716) #

Should teams win 75% of the games they get a quality start?

Well, last year the Jays went 60-21 (74%) when getting a Game Score of 50 or better. A Game Score of 50 is not always a Quality Start (and by the same token a Quality Start can score at less than 50). But it's probably close enough for government work.

FisherCat - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#182717) #

if we continue to get this kind of quality starting from our starters, we better start winning more then 7 out of 12!

I'd take 7 wins out of every 12 games played from the Jays this year! Because if my math is correct that equates to 94 wins (94.5 actually :-P) or a 0.583 win %. Which I would think should put us right in the thick of a Wild Card race at the very least. They just can't do it by winning 3, losing 3, winning 3...

Well you get the picture!

Mike Green - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#182718) #

Sabermetricians live in their mother's basements, and stare at screens all day and all of the night. Treehouses are too close to nature for your average stathead!

I am a TJ recovery skeptic, but the plan of having Ryan throw at most once every two days for an inning seems to me to be a very good one. If he feels fine, is throwing well and is not being overworked, this might very well work out. The Twins have waited longer with Liriano, but because the load on a starter is that much greater, I am less sanguine about his prospects.

China fan - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#182719) #

By the way, Magpie, I enjoyed the movie quotation at the top of your article today. A great film, incidentally. Does the movie's title also serve as a description of an AJ Burnett fastball?

greenfrog - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#182720) #

Down in the zone or not, velocity had nothing to do with that 0 - 2 triple. It was over the middle of the plate, and a hitter protecting on 0 -2 is going to hit that pitch, 99 times out of 100.

It was a hittable pitch, but certainly nothing to get worried about. As BJ said, "I could've started better, but it wasn't a terrible pitch to Byrd." (bluejays.com)

In any event, he finished strong and got the save. I just don't see how Carroll can infer from one outing--a scoreless and effective inning--that BJ is unlikely to be successful going forward.

chris_jays - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#182722) #

How are they rushing him?

Throwing an inning in A at Dunedin is the same as throwing an inning here every other day.

Geoff - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#182723) #

This is how I know it's early in the season:

Entering tonight's game, the Blue Jays will battle for AL East supremacy with the Baltimore Orioles in a head-to-head matchup!

The opposing pitchers will be Matt Albers and the dreaded Steve Trachsel, who owns a 6-0 record in seven starts versus the Jays since being born on Halloween 37 years ago. Marcum will oppose the Trachster.

timpinder - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#182724) #

That 0-2 pitch to Byrd seemed to be a slider that just didn't have a lot of movement on it. It was down and in, but didn't tail off like his slider did in 2006. That's just the way my amateur eyes saw it, and breaking pitches are the last to come around after the surgery. Either way, I'm more confident in a post-TJ Ryan than a splitter-less Accardo.

cascando - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#182725) #

Does BPs' attitude towards the Blue Jays remind anyone else of a jilted lover?

I thought you were my sabermetric darling, and you turned out to be somebody else. I HATE you!

As much as BP has earned my respect (and occasionally my money) they are amateurs and I believe more prone to this kind of reasoning than other sources.

For example, does Nate Silver really think the Jays are going to finish 5th in the AL East this year, or is that a view skewed by several years of disparaging the Jays farm system and drafting strategy (lamenting the lack of talent, all but ignoring talents like Hill, Marcum and Janssen)

HollywoodHartman - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#182726) #

Rios out of the lineup tonight. Day off or panic. I'll leave that to you.

Alex Obal - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#182727) #

Both. Day off, because it would be a mistake to let the O's pitchers get too well acquainted with the #3 hitter. This is a potential ALCS preview. And whenever a ball is hit in the air... panic.

Thomas - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#182731) #

There are a couple of BP writers who I usually ignore when they write about the Jays, as their analysis seems less than objective (whether it is or not, I don't know, but they are often overly pessimistic/critical about the team), but Will Carroll has never been one of those guys. Although a bit faster than what I expected, I've not thought the Ryan timeline was unreasonable given the surgery and how he's performed in the minors and I have a really hard time believing JP would risk Ryan's future health because there is some possibility, large or small, he may lose his job if the team underperforms in 2008.

Rob - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#182735) #

I've been wanting to post this since John Northey posted the game scores of our opposing pitchers!

Actually...no, never mind.

Re: Maddux. Looks like the game Magpie linked was his best Game Score ever, and there's also this 10-inning start from 1988. Game Score, 94. Honourable mention also goes to August 13, 2006. (How often is the GS higher than the number of pitches?) Looks like the Cubs rode him pretty hard in '88. 143 pitches, 134, 167, 131, 131 again on July 10, and from July 15 to the end of the season he had an ERA nearly two runs above his season average.

Trick trivia question: which pitcher on the 1986 Cubs did Maddux directly replace in his major league debut?

zeppelinkm - Monday, April 14 2008 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#182736) #

My apologies Rob. My memory failed me but I should have double checked.

Looking at your list again really drives home the point how nice our starters have done so far.

7% of the season down, 93% to go!

TDIB 14 April 2008: Top of the World, Ma! | 30 comments | Create New Account

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