Is it the Jays modus operandi to make young pitchers look like Cy Young candidates? It never ceases to amaze me how these guys come in and shut the Jays down when they ought to be filling their boots.

In fairness, Greg Smith spun another gem last night, this time against the White Sox.

Final line: 7IP, 6H, 1BB, 1ER, 4K for the win over Mark Buehrle.

While I sure get frustrated (like many of you do) when we lose to a rookie, I imagine that's how the Sox and Rangers felt the last time young Mr. Litsch was out there allowing only 4ER in 11IP, picking up 2 wins in the process. It happens - it's just the perspective that changes.

I'll just keep the BR page that says the Jays lead the league in OBP open all day.

Fortunately the Jays face a geezer tonight in Steve Trachsel.  Based on the stats of Blue Jays vs +30 year olds, they should fare well tonight.

Unfortuantely Steve Trachsel is 5-0 in his last five starts agains the Blue Jays, going back to 2001.

Marcum is 0-1 with a 7.04 ERA in four starts againts previous versions of the Orioles. 

The Jays have the 3rd-best run differential in the major leagues (+16). That's the good news. The bad news is that there are 11 teams with better records.

The interesting thing is that the Jays haven't been involved in any blowouts. I'm not sure what to make of this. This early in the season, it's probably a small sample size thing. It does seem like the Jays have missed a lot of opportunities so far (with marginally more timely hitting, they could easily be 9-4). On the other hand, they've been in almost every game, which I suppose is a good thing.

the difference between Litsch vs AL 07 & Jays history vs young pitchers, is that it seems to have happened for oh at least 15 years.. it's almost a given. it also seems from memory that many of these pitchers do NOT do well  ( at least that inital year) with the rest of the league.

I would love for someone with access to do a more detailed search of first year players vs Jays and post records at least annually. that might be a lot of work...so if someone has the access and can think of a way i can help out.. i don't mind backin up my request.

Man, those first-place Os are tough to beat. No wonder they were the darlings of the preseason selection set.

And I see that the Yankees beat the Rays in their battle for the cellar. The league should just contract both of those sad-sack teams and be done with it.

"The interesting thing is that the Jays haven't been involved in any blowouts. I'm not sure what to make of this. This early in the season, it's probably a small sample size thing. It does seem like the Jays have missed a lot of opportunities so far (with marginally more timely hitting, they could easily be 9-4). On the other hand, they've been in almost every game, which I suppose is a good thing."

I don't mean to nitpick, but that 10-2 Boston game was definitely a blowout.

There's no one I hate to see the Jays play against more that time-stopper Trachsel.  Not only he is slow as mud on the mound, he always kills the Jays.

I don't mean to nitpick, but that 10-2 Boston game was definitely a blowout.

My bad...memo to self: get facts straight before posting.

In a way, though, the Boston game makes our record look even worse. Without it, our run differential is +24 over the course of 12 games, but our record in those games is only 7-5. Which means we're either dominating a lot of games, or losing a lot of close ones. Unfortunately, the trend is more towards the latter. It's obviously a small sample size, though.

 

 

OK, now I feel moronic.

We actually won the Boston game, so that makes our run differential +8 over the other 12 games. Which changes the analysis quite a bit (reflecting the fact that we're mostly winning a lot of close games--but losing a handful as well).

With our distinct lack of slugging so far this year, it seems that whenever we steal some bases, we're able win the close games.....but when we abandon the aggressive running game, we seem to be losing the close games. Last night is one example, and I don't believe we ran much in the Oakland series either.

From my dessert napkin, I see that we're 6-0 on Weekends and 1-6 on Monday-Thursday.  Seems like a simple recipe to me.  Look out Tigers.

In retrospect, that was probably a bad night to rest Rios.

Against Trachsel you put Stairs in left. It's a toss for Eckstein/MacDonald and Scurato/Inglett. Trachsel usually has reverse split numbers but Stairs and Overbay have had no problems with him.

Accuscore favors the Jays by 59%. They favored Baltimore yesterday. I'd be curious to see what metrics they use.

Was Hill actually injured on the HBP? Sportsnet seemed to indicate he may be on Sportscentral but I missed the full story.

according to Jordan Bastian:

Hill was struck on his left elbow by a pitch in the fourth inning on Tuesday, but indicated that he was fine after the game

The early returns on Gary Denbo are quite positive.  You can see a noticeable improvement throughout the club in batting approach, most notably with Vernon Wells.  Statistically, it shows up in P/PA, but it is easy to see just watching.

How have the hitters responded so far to the Denbo way?  Overall the Jays are 1st in OBP, 2nd in Avg, 9th in slugging vs last years 12-12-8 showing.  However, it is just 14 games.

Who has responded?
- Zaun: 59 OPS+ vs lifetime 90
- Overbay: 92 OPS+ vs lifetime 110
+ Hill 146 OPS+ vs lifetime 99
- Scutaro 67 OPS+ vs lifetime 86
+ Eckstein 93 OPS+ vs lifetime 89
- Stewart 62 OPS+ vs lifetime 106
+ Wells 161 OPS+ vs lifetime 109
+ Rios 137 OPS+ vs lifetime 106
- Thomas 107 OPS+ vs lifetime 157
- Stairs 92 OPS+ vs lifetime 120

So, for guys who have 30+ PA's so far we have 4 pluses and 6 minus'.  The pluses are winning the overall battle though given the teams standing.

Should be interesting to track as the season moves along.

I heard Steve Trachsel was 6-0 against the Blue Jays way too many times last night (Jamie Campbell and Pat Tabler likened him to both Glavine and Maddux), so hopefully to stop anyone from continuing the "Steve Trachsel is 6-1 against Toronto!" meme, I offer the following.

First of all, they actually won a game against Trachsel before last night. He just didn't get charged with the loss. And aside from July 2001--his return to Toronto in which he pitched well like every single former Blue Jay does--here's the thing about his games against Toronto. None of Escobar, Wells, Towers, Chacin, McGowan, or Litsch pitched well for the good guys. It took Shaun Marcum last night to right the ship and actually turn in a Game Score over 50.

anecdotally (which is perhaps at least as valuable as small sample size stats), it was great to see the Jays tattoo Trachsel yesterday.  He's a guy that's absolutely given the Jays fits, including last season with almost the exact same lineup.  In the past, it's been my perception that the Jays have been jumpy and overly agressive against Trachsel.  Yesterday, though, the Jays each seemed to go up to the plate with a plan and prepared to deal with the Trashman's junk.  He wasn't fooling them at all.  I'm wondering if Denbo deserves some of the credit for what looked to me like a much better-prepared team.  Trachsel was effective for the O's his first two starts, so it's not like he's been getting bombed all season.  And of course even in a small sample size, it is fantastic to see the Jays leading the league in OBP, the fact that we're second in AVG shows it's not all average-driven either.