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The first couple of standard projection methods have come out so lets start seeing what our 2009 Blue Jays might look like.

Using the Bill James projections publicly available at and ZIPs  - and Marcel - - mixed with the 2008 real stats we can start seeing what holes we should expect in 2009 (beyond what we know on the surface) plus how deep those holes are.  I'm just using guys who actually are here, not guys we think/wish will be.  Age is for 2009.

CA: Barajas - 33 years old, fairly predictable
2008: 249/294/410
James: 240/291/404
Marcel: 248/308/412
ZIPS: 242/298/401

1B: Overbay - 32 years old, fairly predictable
2008: 270/358/419
James: 271/355/433
Marcel: 272/357/435
ZIPS: 270/350/417

2B: Hill - 27 years old, 30 OPS point spread but close enough
2008: 263/324/361
James: 285/343/421
Marcel: 282/342/420
ZIPS: 281/334/400

3B: Rolen - 34 years old, 53 point spread - dispute time
2008: 262/349/431
James: 268/356/453 - gets better
Marcel: 264/347/429 - same
ZIPS: 259/340/416 - gets worse

SS: McDonald - 34 years old, any point in guessing?
2008: 210/255/269
Marcel: 234/286/329 - the monkey likes him, sorta
ZIPS: not listed which says it all

IF: Inglett - 31 years old, 23 point spread
2008: 297/355/407
James: 289/349/391
Marcel: 281/344/404
ZIPS: 283/338/379

IF: Scutaro - 33 years old, very predictable
2008: 267/341/356
James: 259/332/368
Marcel: 255/331/367
ZIPS: 261/334/364

IF: Bautista - 28 years old, improving but 31 point spread
2008: 238/313/405 (overall)
James: 251/336/428 - optimist again
Marcel: 245/334/410
ZIPS: 230/319/414

LF: Lind - 25 years old, 77 point spread (!)
2008: 282/316/439
James: 300/349/494 - sweet
Marcel: 276/328/438 - not sweet
ZIPS: 276/323/443 - not sweet

CF: Wells - 30 years old, uh oh - declines all around, 43 point spread
2008: 300/343/496
James: 281/336/480
Marcel: 275/338/465
ZIPS: 274/329/444

RF: Rios - 28 years old, reverse spread but improving.
2008: 291/337/461
James: 291/344/462
Marcel: 287/344/464 - James stole from the monkey!
ZIPS: 293/347/478

DH: Snider - 21 years old, 71 point spread(!)
2008: 301/338/466
James: 270/342/462 - like it
Marcel: 287/358/458 - Sweet
ZIPS: 251/304/441 - uh oh

Prospects who might get a lot of playing time...
CA: JP Arencibia - 23 years old, already hits about as well as Barajas
James: n/a
Marcel: n/a
ZIPS: 247/272/414

CA: Jeroloman - 24 years old, not a nice prediction
James: n/a
Marcel: n/a
ZIPS: 226/320/313

I skipped guys like Adams and Thigpen as it was just too depressing to think of them as guys getting more than 10 or 20 AB's.

Disputes are (50+ point OPS spread) with Lind, Snider, (both over 70 points) and Rolen.  Lets hope ZIPS is wrong for all 3.  PECOTA doesn't appear to have come out yet, and isn't free anyways.  CHONE, MINER, and THT aren't out yet also.  The good news is ZIPS came in last for projecting hitters when compared to THT/CHONE/PECOTA but sadly we don't have how Bill James and Marcel did (source:

Pretty clear that Bill James is the optimist and ZIPS is the pessimist in this crowd.  Marcel, well, he tends to match past production as that is how it is designed.
Blue Jay Projections - Wave I - Hitters | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kelekin - Saturday, November 15 2008 @ 04:32 AM EST (#194146) #
For fun, here is a comparison of the 2008 Blue Jays squad and their PECOTA data:

C: Rod Barajas - Good OBP and SLG% Estimates
Actual: .249/.294/.410
PECOTA: .222/.297/.389

1B: Lyle Overbay
Actual: .270/.358/.419
PECOTA: .264/.339/.422

2B: Aaron Hill
Actual: .263/.324/.361
PECOTA: .272/.326/.407

SS: Marco Scutaro
Actual: .267/.341/.356
PECOTA: .257/.334/.384

3B: Scott Rolen (Nice average/slug prediction)
Actual: .262/.349/.431
PECOTA: .263/.329/.431

OF: Vernon Wells
Actual: .300/.343/.496
PECOTA: .271/.334/.455

OF: Alex Rios
Actual: .291/.337/.461
PECOTA: .281/.340/.470

OF: Adam Lind
Actual: .282/.316/.439
PECOTA: .266/.323/.442

OF/1B: Matt Stairs - This was way off
Actual: .250/.342/.394
PECOTA: .275/.359/.509

It is pointless to compare the numbers for Snider or any other prospects as PECOTA only assumes MLB numbers for players who they expect to have MLB playing time.  PECOTA is one of the more widely-considered accurate projection programs.  We'll see what they say when the 2009 numbers are out. I'm surprised these numbers are being released prior to a good portion of free agency being completed.

timpinder - Saturday, November 15 2008 @ 08:06 AM EST (#194148) #

Assuming there aren't any trades, I think James' projection for Lind will be the most accurate based on his minor league numbers and flashes in the majors.  The slump when he was first called up and the slump to finish the year hurt Lind's final line.  Lind seemed to suffer from the Giambi effect in 2008 as well, hitting .292/.331/.450 when playing LF but only .231/.242/.385 as a DH.  I hope Gaston and Ricciardi take that into account when filling out their roster.

I also think James' projection for Rolen will be the most accurate, but with only around 400 or so plate appearances.  Snider will probably start the year in AAA, unless Overbay or Lind are dealt.

Denoit - Saturday, November 15 2008 @ 01:20 PM EST (#194151) #

Not a single player predicted to slug over .500. Im going to say that doesnt happen this year. Rios is going to have a bounceback year. He struggled for quite some time and still put up decenct numbers. Im saying he hits well over .300, (.310-.320) and hits 25-30Hrs.

brent - Saturday, November 15 2008 @ 11:03 PM EST (#194153) #

The Jays' site has Jean Machi off the 40-man to make room for Janssen and Hill. I guess that is good news in that others have passed him on the depth chart. All that talk the last two years about keeping a live arm around was much ado about nothing. I like seeing 10 out of 25 pitchers are left handed. Those lefties that can get out right handed hitters allow the manager a lot more flexibility and negates teams breaking up their power lefty bats. Does anyone want to second guess dumping Russ Adams instead? The link is here:

Anyone have problems with the roster construction? It looks to me that there is going to be some bullpen competition for the lefty spots if Downs is going to the rotation and Tallet moved.

Mylegacy - Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 01:24 AM EST (#194154) #
No team loses three starters like McGowan, Burnett and Marcum - and still competes.

SO - the hitting is by far the least of our worries. Having said that - the only way we can escape the cellar is if Rolen, Hill and Overbay ALL come back big time. AND - Lind and Rios BOTH blossom. ALSO - Snider has to have a ROY type year with close to 30 big ones. A lot has to come together for us - just to stop us from being awful.

Fortunately, I think enough of it will come together so that we'll enjoy watching our gladiators in 09. 
Kelekin - Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 02:07 AM EST (#194157) #
That is a horrible 40-man roster.  Instead of protecting rule 5 eligibles we find it necessary to put 30 year old minor league pitchers?
Kelekin - Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 02:11 AM EST (#194158) #
I certainly assume they are temporary moves, anyways.  That's what I get at midnight.
TamRa - Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 03:07 AM EST (#194159) #
That is a horrible 40-man roster.  Instead of protecting rule 5 eligibles we find it necessary to put 30 year old minor league pitchers?

I'm sure that the deadline has not arrived to protect players eligible for the Rule 5 draft because this is the winter Ricky Romero has to be protected - which he will be.

Robert Ray will get protected too.

I think the biggest part of the recent waiver claims will get waived again. JP likes that claim and waive manuver to try to add minor league depth.

Warland, Jimminez, Santos, and Sanchez will all likely be waived at some point and Murphy might go too.

Besides Romero and Ray, the only borderline guys to be protected are Joe Wice (I'd protect him over those waiver scrubs) and Ryan Patterson (definately a maybe but more worthy of a roster spot than Sanchez)

Adams could get waived at some point if need be but he'd come after that group of pitchers I named above. Frasor will be non-tendered if he can't be traded, and Shawn Camp to if indeed he's arb-eligiable

So I wouldn't worry too much about the current roster construction.

Jays2010 - Monday, November 17 2008 @ 01:40 AM EST (#194162) #

Prior to the 2006 season, there was optimism abound for the Blue Jays. They signed AJ and BJ to contracts that covered their prime years, acquired Overbay when he still looked like he had some upside, acquired a still-productive Glaus and took a one year flier on Molina at a below market rate. Other than AJ's injuries, all of those acquisitions looked excellent at the time. The Jays had 5 All Stars. For the most part, they had no bad contracts on a $70 million roster. But JP had virtually none of his own homegrown talent and the holes at SS and in their rotation beyond Roy and AJ were exposed.

Then in 2007, Marcum, McGowan, Janssen, Accardo, Litsch, Hill all have great years and the future looks semi-bright considering none of them were anywhere near freee agency...but Wells, Glaus, Overbay etc take steps back. JP asserts that injuries were the only thing that held them back (this was certainly part of the problem, but not all of it).

2008 is frustrating as heck...I'm of the opinion that the Jays had above average injury luck (our top 6 starters made virtually all of our starts and even when guys like Hill were hurt, replacements like Inglett lessened the blow). The Jays fall to fourth in their division, though an analysis of scheduling/division inequalities shows that they were probably around the 6th best team in the majors (after the Rays, Red Sox, Yanks, Angels and Cubs). A ridiculously good run differential still gets them nowhere near the playoffs. Their rotation is left in shambles for the 2009 season (JP can still fix this of course). On the farm, a franchise propsect (Snider) and two bluechip prospects (Cecil, JPA) emerge and provide hope for the future...but the early projections look like another 85 win season....just think, if JP were either in another division or had spent his first 4 drafts drafting the way he has for the last 3 drafts, there might have been a sniff at the playoffs somewhere in here...and, once again, barring a miracle, it seems Jays fans will once again have to cling to hope...

Mike D - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 12:15 AM EST (#194178) #
A fascinating bullet from Peter Gammons' blog:

Interesting how many GMs think that if the Dodgers get CC Sabathia, the Giants will get big into Manny Ramirez, and Billy Beane and the A's will continue to move fast on Rafael Furcal. Also, expect Toronto to make good on its promise to Milton Bradley that he is the Blue Jays' priority.

Somewhere, Mike Green is hopeful.
92-93 - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 01:00 AM EST (#194179) #
"Somewhere, Mike Green is hopeful."

EVERYBODY should be hopeful, not just MG. Many of us have enumerated why a Milton Bradley signing would make sense so I'm not going to go through it all here, but think two quick points. #1 OPS in the AL in 2008, and won't require a massive commitment. Even if you are worried about his temperament you should realize what a glorious opportunity this is.
timpinder - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 07:46 AM EST (#194181) #

My concern with Bradley isn't his attitude or his ability to hit it's his durability.  In 9 seasons he's only had more than 500 at bats once (516 in 2004), and only more than 400 at bats once (414 last year)

The Jays' brass must believe that if used as a DH the likelihood of injury would diminish, since Bradley has spent most of his career in the outfield.

Glevin - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 08:13 AM EST (#194182) #
"My concern with Bradley isn't his attitude or his ability to hit it's his durability.  In 9 seasons he's only had more than 500 at bats once (516 in 2004), and only more than 400 at bats once (414 last year)"

In the last 4 years, Bradley has averaged 314.25 ABs. He misses a lot of time every year. He was also horribly overrated before last year as he was a guy who was all about upside over actual performance. It all depends on how much he'd get, but expecting last year's numbers (career highs in OBP, SLG, and ABs) is probably asking too much. He could a very good deal if teams shy away from him because of his personality.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 08:18 AM EST (#194183) #
Hmm.  Bradley is an interesting one.  An ex-Expo who hit terribly his first 3 seasons (called up too soon) burst onto the scene in 2003 with Cleveland at 25 with a 147 OPS+ season over 451 PA's.  He followed that with his worst season since - a 108 OPS+.  The last two years he has hit for a 153 and a 163 over 244 and 509 PA's.  Just twice has qualified for the batting title (502+ PA's).

His similar batters through age 30 include Ivan Calderon and Carl Everett (plus Ron Northey at #4 I have to add).  A lot of guys who were good but not great.  2 of his 10 most similar never played again after age 30, 3 appeared in under 162 more games, 3 more under 350, and 2 between 500 and 800.  Trot Nixon is still active though and is at 348 games.

I'd sign him, but no more than 3 years with a 'health discount'.  If JP can drag him here for under $30 over 3 I'd be quite happy.  $45 over 3 would be a bit much.

jgadfly - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 12:02 PM EST (#194192) #
IF as Tim Dierks says ... "I can see Beane getting Furcal regardless, even with Bobby Crosby under contract for '09." ... then who do the Jays offer up to their favourite trading partner to get Crosby ? 
Mike D - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 01:17 PM EST (#194195) #

then who do the Jays offer up to their favourite trading partner to get Crosby ? 

How about nobody?  He has one year left on his contract that is more expensive than Scutaro's -- and he hasn't been as healthy or as good as Scutaro for four years.

Mike Green - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 02:20 PM EST (#194201) #
What Mike D said, on both counts.  I am hopeful, and I agree that Crosby is not a good bet to be better than Scutaro at shortstop.

The club could use a backup plan at shortstop, being (probably) a young player who is ahead of Justin Jackson on the developmental curve and would start out in double A or triple A.  This would be with an eye to 2010 and 2011 more than 2009. 

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, November 18 2008 @ 09:43 PM EST (#194217) #
I haven't given this much thought, but on a superficial level Bradley reminds me a lot of where Frank Thomas was during the 06/07 off-season: they are both injury prone designated hitters who can seriously hit but also have attitude issues. Thomas was evidently much older, but since he was so much better at his peak, the talent levels are relatively similar. JP also targeted both players a year after their big years, instead of being the one getting the huge bargain. I did like the Thomas signing though, and I would love to see Bradley signed: Snider could start in AAA, and if Lind, Rios, Wells, Overbay, or Bradley got hurt or underperformed, Snider could replace any of them. Evidently the odds of all five having healthy and successful seasons are extremely slim.

I'm sure someone's going to give me hell for making a race-based comparison, but I think it's a valid one.

Blue Jay Projections - Wave I - Hitters | 18 comments | Create New Account
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