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As we turn our thoughts to the 2010 edition, let's start setting the context. Yup, it's Data Table time.


Your AL offenses in 2009 performed as follows.

TOTAL          AB   R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB   SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
                                                                                   
NY Yankees   5660  915 1604 2703 325 21 244 881 663 1014 111 28 31 39  54 144 .283 .362 .478   979    6.05
LA Angels    5622  883 1604 2482 293 33 173 841 547 1054 148 63 43 52  41 128 .285 .350 .441   863    5.35
Boston    5543  872 1495 2516 335 25 212 822 659 1120 126 39 19 51  70 137 .270 .352 .454   893    5.52
Minnesota    5608  817 1539 2406 271 40 172 770 585 1021  85 32 51 57  45 147 .274 .345 .429   824    5.03
Tampa Bay    5462  803 1434 2400 297 36 199 765 642 1229 194 61 25 45  49 104 .263 .343 .439   843    5.24
Toronto    5696  798 1516 2508 339 13 209 766 548 1028  73 23 24 49  45 130 .266 .333 .440   829    4.97
Texas    5526  784 1436 2458 296 27 224 748 472 1253 149 36 40 51  37  97 .260 .320 .445   791    4.82
AL AVERAGE   5569  781 1485 2384 295 28 183 746 550 1094 110 39 36 46  52 130 .267 .338 .428   797    4.88
Cleveland    5568  773 1468 2321 314 28 161 730 582 1211  84 31 39 50  81 140 .264 .339 .417   789    4.80
Oakland    5584  759 1464 2218 307 21 135 723 527 1046 133 48 31 54  50 130 .262 .328 .397   729    4.42
Detroit    5540  743 1443 2307 245 35 183 718 540 1114  72 33 53 39  61 131 .260 .331 .416   757    4.61
Baltimore    5618  741 1508 2333 307 19 160 708 517 1013  76 37 13 46  39 131 .268 .332 .415  763    4.67
Chicago Sox  5463  724 1410 2248 246 20 184 695 534 1022 113 49 34 39  62 139 .258 .329 .411   730    4.51
Kansas City  5532  686 1432 2242 276 51 144 657 457 1091  88 29 38 32  42 135 .259 .318 .405   700    4.28
Seattle    5543  640 1430 2228 280 19 160 613 421 1093  89 33 56 44  49 124 .258 .314 .402   687    4.16
As you see, Toronto was sixth in the league in runs scored. Along with most of the league, they were a clear step behind the three really good offensive teams - two of which reside in their own division, natch. But despite Kevin Millar, despite the offensive sinkhole that were their catchers, despite the huge disappointments named Vernon wells and Alex Rios, despite the failure of Travis Snider to take the league by storm, despite the Mysterious Ways of Cito Gaston... they were actually pretty good. They were comfortably better than league average, and clearly were not one of the really bad offensive teams.

They've made some changes - different players will be starting the season at catcher, shortstop, third base, and right field than we saw out there last year. But at nine of the ten offensive spots, the team can reasonably be expected to be roughly as good as last season. If not better. Which doesn't mean they actually will be better, of course. But there are worse places to start from. It's at at the tenth spot where... well, oh dear. Oh dear dear dear. The single greatest fall-off at any single roster spot from last year's team to this year's does not come at the head of the starting rotation.

It comes in the infield.

Let's look at the whole thing by position.

CATCHER        AB    R    H   TB  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB   SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC   RC/27
Minnesota    612   96  208  316  35  2  23  83  80  77   4  1  0  5  2  20 .340 .415 .516   130    8.08
Kansas City  601   70  162  303  32  8  31  99  30  167   6  3  3  2  6  10 .270 .310 .504    90    5.18
Boston    578   71  138  241  43  0  20  85  83  124   1  0  0  8  3  10 .239 .333 .417    84    4.78
Oakland    643   88  172  280  40  1  22 109  34  87   8  1  1  7  7  16 .267 .308 .435    83    4.44
NY Yankees   592   78  159  259  34  0  22  98  53  129   1  3  5  6   4  18 .269 .330 .438    81    4.68
Baltimore    571   62  154  232  32  2  14  62  62  119   0  0  1  4   4  14 .270 .343 .406    80    4.81
Chicago Sox  606   71  172  253  28  1  17  64  36   84   1  1  3  3   2  19 .284 .325 .417    77    4.45
AL AVERAGE   584   70  148  238  32  2  18  76  50  121   3  2  4  5   6  15 .254 .318 .408    73    4.21
LA Angels    549   76  131  224  25  1  22  72  54  160   4  5  9  4  11   5 .239 .317 .408    73    4.32
Cleveland    559   65  126  204  31  1  15  75  74  141   0  0  3  9  18  18 .225 .330 .365    70    3.99
Texas    568   74  133  215  31  0  17  71  41  188   1  2  6  4   2  13 .234 .286 .379    59    3.39
Toronto    618   55  142  231  29  0  20  87  26  108   2  1  6  7   1   9 .230 .259 .374    58    3.05
Seattle    571   50  128  202  31  2  13  54  40  110   4  3  5  2   7  18 .224 .282 .354    53    3.02
Detroit    535   58  115  175  29  2  9  50  53  115   5  1 10  6  10  17 .215 .295 .327    52    3.04
Tampa Bay    571   62  133  199  25  1  13  55  29   81   7  5  9  3   6  21 .233 .276 .349    49    2.79
Yup. Kurt Suzuki RBI machine. Anyway, are you as surprised to see the Royals in second place, ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox, as I am? Go figure. Well, Miguel Olivo and John Buck were both perfectly adequate hitters last season (each had an OPS+ of 103). Neither one of them is Jorge Posada, of course, but all the good Posada did was undone by the evil that is... Jose Molina. Oh, great. Still, considering how disturbingly inoffensive the Barajas-Chavez tandem was last season, just how bad can it get? Hang on... it can get pretty bad indeed. Buck is unlikely to hit as wellas he did last season (he never has before), and with Molina at age 35 what you saw last year is about what you're going to get. But offensive ineptitude actually has a basement, and Barajas-Chavez were pretty damn close to useless already. Buck should be a little better than Barajas overall, and Molina should be a little worse than Molina. It should all even out, more or less.

FIRST BASE    AB    R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
NY Yankees    641  112  187  363  45  4  41 126  91 121   2  0  0  5 11   14 .292 .386 .566   142    7.91
Detroit    635  101  203  347  37  1  35  105  70 115   6  4  0  1  5   25 .320 .391 .546   128    7.52
Minnesota     630  106  177  336  38  2  39  120  81 106   1  0  0  7  7   19 .281 .366 .533   121    6.72
Boston    597  108  175  288  34  2  25   97  76 128   7  1  0  5 17   19 .293 .386 .482   112    6.68
Seattle    604   81  158  302  32  2  36  97  70 179   2  0  1  6 13   9 .262 .348 .500   108    6.08
LA Angels     622   87  184  333  46  2  33  114  49 136   3  7  0  8  3   17 .296 .346 .535   108    6.16
Tampa Bay     581  101  133  291  31  2  41  107  99 188   5  3  0  3 10   6 .229 .349 .501   107    6.06
Kansas City  640   79  189  309  55  1  21   96  55 109   2  0  0  4  2   21 .295 .351 .483   103    5.79
AL AVERAGE    609   89  165  293  37  2  29  100  70 131   2  2  1  5  8   16 .271 .353 .481   101    5.75
Chicago Sox   597   82  165  288  34  1  29   96  63  96   1  0  1  8  8   17 .276 .349 .482    99    5.74
Toronto    586   77  154  262  46  1  20   91  92 124   0  0  0  3  2   15 .263 .363 .447    97    5.67
Cleveland     587   82  162  271  29  1  26  102  65 103   1  1  3  6 14   17 .276 .359 .462    97    5.67
Baltimore    623   75  163  256  39  0  18   86  50  99   0  6  0  5  4   21 .262 .318 .411    75    4.10
Texas    610   73  138  251  23  3  28   84  38 210   0  0  0  6  3   10 .226 .272 .411    67    3.58
Oakland     576   87  125  205  30  1  16   74  79 121   1  3  5  8  8   15 .217 .316 .356    66    3.65
The end of the Lyle Overbay era approaches, but he isn't entirely to blame for the dismal showing Jays first sackers provided in 2009. There was that Millar fella, never to be seen again, one assumes. Millar saved his real awfulness for those days when he was in the lineup as a DH - nevertheless, Randy Ruiz can hardly help but be better. Overbay should continue to hit doubles, draw walks, and play solid defense. His manager (and much of the fan base) don't seem to like him that much. But he's a good player, although at this stage of his career he definitely needs a platoon partner. Which is where Ruiz comes in, of course. It's possible , of course, that by the end of July Overbay will have been sent on his way (how many contenders are likely to be looking for a first baseman, anyway?) and the Brett Wallace era will be upon us...

SECOND BASE    AB    R    H   TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
Baltimore    659  116  189  299  57  1  17   83  82 112  31  7  1  8  2   10 .287 .364 .454   115    6.10
Toronto    702  105  203  354  37  0  38  111  45 100   6  2  1  4  5   17 .289 .335 .504   113    5.74
Boston    659  120  194  296  49  1  17   79  76  53  20  8  3  6  7   20 .294 .370 .449   109    5.84
Texas    645  110  166  305  35  4  32   92  66  88  32  5  6  6  6   9 .257 .329 .473   105    5.45
NY Yankees    656  106  208  336  49  2  25   87  30  65   5  7  0  4  3   23 .317 .348 .512   105    5.91
Kansas City   607   83  178  270  39  7  13   74  56  56   7  1  1  5  2   18 .293 .352 .445   93    5.45
AL AVERAGE    630   94  173  269  38  3  17   80  56  90  16  5  4  5  5   15 .275 .339 .428    90    4.92
Tampa Bay     584   75  152  231  25  6  14   72  86 114  18  3  2  4  3    6 .260 .356 .396    90    5.22
LA Angels    626  104  179  275  39  6  15  102  42 102  18  7  2  4  6   15 .286 .335 .439    89    5.01
Detroit    678   89  192  273  32  5  13   81  39  60   6  2 10  6 10   15 .283 .329 .403    88    4.47
Oakland    617   80  170  258  38  1  16   92  43  88  18  7  6  6  6   16 .276 .326 .418    82    4.53
Seattle    640   77  170  288  44  1  24   94  33  84   5  4  3  8  5   25 .266 .303 .450    78    4.15
Cleveland     615  101  162  230  36  4   8   51  59 129   7  5  5  2  3   16 .263 .330 .374    74    4.10
Chicago Sox   575   74  145  208  25  4  10   55  53 101  31  5  3  5  9   8 .252 .322 .362    72    4.21
Minnesota    555   71  116  148  20  3   2   43  73 105  23  1 15  5  3   14 .209 .302 .267    51    2.83
Aaron Hill's 2009 season came out of nowhere - just how often does a guy double his previous career high in homers anyway? I have no idea what to expect from him in 2010. The pattern of his 2009 season is interesting - he hit .333/.368/.519 with 12 HRs and 37 RBIs in April in May. The league may have made an adjustment, and while he kept right on hitting homers, everything else disappeared - he hit .241/.293/.476 with 12 HRs and 33 RBI in June and July. And then Hill adjusted to the league - in the final two months he hit .280/.327/.498 with 12 HRs and 38 RBIs. The basic issue with Hill, of course, isn't his production - it's  the enormous number of outs he makes  in the process. If he could just draw 50 walks in a season....

THIRD BASE    AB    R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
Tampa Bay    623  109  176  330  44  1  36  120  77 144   9  0  0  7  8   26 .283 .365 .530   117    6.55
Texas    650  87  205  328  45  3  24   80  51 113   9  3  0  4  1   18 .315 .364 .505   115    6.51
LA Angels     643  116  195  262  32  7  7   62 100 119  41 17  7  4  1   12 .303 .396 .407   110    6.10
NY Yankees    584   89  158  269  29  2  26  109  88 132  15  1  3  3 10   19 .271 .374 .461   103    6.09
Boston    641   89  184  318  43  2  29  106  55 114   5  2  0  5  6   26 .287 .347 .496   102    5.66
Toronto    615   94  175  270  39  1  18   73  56  95   6  2  1  8  9   6 .285 .349 .439    98    5.55
AL AVERAGE    619   85  166  262  34  2  19   81  60 124  10  4  2  5  7   16 .269 .340 .423    88    4.86
Kansas City   605   89  160  250  35  2  17   60  46 146  12  0  1  3  7   14 .264 .322 .413    81    4.57
Cleveland   639   80  166  252  33  1  17   94  60 130   0  2  4  6  4   21 .260 .324 .394    78    4.13
Chicago Sox   606   78  153  246  36  3  17   86  59 138   9  7  3  4  9   17 .252 .326 .406    77    4.29
Detroit    589   75  138  241  17  1  28   87  56 176   2  6  1  3 17   12 .234 .317 .409    75    4.21
Minnesota    611   73  151  235  27  3  17   72  56 107   2  3  5  6  4   10 .247 .312 .385    74    3.98
Oakland    613   74  151  218  29  4  10   66  63 124  14  2  4  4  2    7 .246 .317 .356    73    3.96
Baltimore     614   66  161  229  26  0  14   67  44  79   4  4  1  3  8   17 .262 .318 .373    70    3.88
Seattle    631   70  156  220  34  0  10   54  35 120  14  4  2  3  8   20 .247 .294 .349    61    3.25

It's unlikely, I suppose, that Edwin Encarnacion will hit as well as Scott Rolen did in 2009. On the other hand, it's even more unlikely that a 35 year old Scott Rolen will hit as well for Dusty Baker this year as he did for Cito Gaston in 2009. Encarnacion and Rolen each hit 8 HRs last season as the Jays' third baseman, Encarnacion in half the playing time. The striking difference between them was: a) Rolen hit a ridiculous number of doubles b) when Rolen put the ball in play, he got lots of hits whereas Encarnacion hit into a lot of outs. That may have been a little random. I really think that if there is a falloff here, it won't be all that bad. (Now when it comes to catching the ball... there will be Trouble. Oh yes. Rolen plays the position as well as anyone I've seen since Brooks Robinson himself. Encarnacion does not.)

SHORTSTOP      AB   R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
NY Yankees    681  110  226  318  31  2  19   73  72  99  31  7  4  1  7   17 .332 .401 .467   129    7.16
Tampa Bay    595  105  194  305  40 10  17   77  62 113  32  9  4  4  5   5 .326 .392 .513   125    7.77
Toronto    654  109  183  266  39  1  14   67  90  85  14  6  6  8  5   11 .280 .367 .407   103    5.41
LA Angels    606   94  191  256  26  9   7   71  39  69  18  8 15  8  8   10 .315 .360 .422    93    5.40
Cleveland    661   85  188  278  49  4  11   82  52 141  15  4  9  4  2   15 .284 .337 .421    92    4.85
Chicago Sox   594   82  162  237  16  1  19   78  61  80  16  6  6  8  1   15 .273 .337 .399    80    4.58
AL AVERAGE    601   79  165  235  29  5  11   66  48  98  16  6  9  6  4   14 .274 .331 .391    77    4.35
Oakland    634   70  180  245  35  3   8   64  45  86  18  9  6  5  1   20 .284 .330 .386    76    4.19
Texas    555   82  149  206  19 10   6   46  46  88  36  6 15  3  6    4 .268 .330 .371    75    4.48
Minnesota    631   87  166  236  30  5  10   82  47 107   7  3  7 13  1   21 .263 .309 .374    70    3.69
Boston    558   69  131  200  33  0  12   61  41 128   6  4  6  6 11   11 .235 .297 .358    59    3.44
Detroit    532   62  133  182  26  1   7   70  35  98   6  4 22  6  7   12 .250 .302 .342    55    3.27
Baltimore     566   58  141  183  22  4   4   40  30  80  14  7  4  2  3   17 .249 .290 .323    49    2.92
Seattle    576   44  133  193  24  3  10   53  23 100   8  4 19  4  3   17 .231 .262 .335    47    2.57
Kansas City   577   48  128  184  18 10   6   54  23  97   8  3  7  5  1   14 .222 .251 .319    44    2.41
This is the big one, kiddies. Roy Halladay gave up 82 runs in 239 innings last season. Let's assume those innings are picked up by a combination of Shaun Marcum (3.95 career ERA) and the Toronto bullpen (4.08 ERA in 2009.) The team would give up from 30 to 35 extra runs in those innings. Now look at the difference between the runs created by the Toronto shortstops and the runs created by the Boston shortstops. That's right. Read 'em and weep.

And yet... who really wants to complain about saying goodbye to a 34 year old shortstop coming off a season that was simply light years ahead of anything he had done in his career? Especially if you're planning to punt the 2010 season anyway, and just need someone to catch the ball in the meantime until you find a real shortstop? Nothing in Scutaro's past suggested he had a season like 2009 in him, except the always present possibility of Lightning Striking at Random.

LEFT FIELD     AB   R    H    TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
Boston    589  114  157  315  32  3  40  126  99 175  13  3  0  4  9   10 .267 .378 .535   125    7.29
Tampa Bay    646  104  199  305  30  8  20   79  60 106  59 17  2  5  8    8 .308 .371 .472   118    6.63
NY Yankees    663  120  183  322  45  2  30   97  78 104  12  0  3  1  2   13 .276 .353 .486   116    6.10
Texas    608   88  165  287  36  1  28   89  60 133  20  4  5 12  3    8 .271 .334 .472   100    5.52
Toronto    581   77  157  268  39  3  22   82  65 135   5  1  6  3  7   13 .270 .349 .461    94    5.54
Minnesota    652   80  189  295  26  7  22  101  46 127   9  7  2  7  5   20 .290 .338 .452    94    5.05
AL AVERAGE    617   87  165  272  31  5  22   86  63 124  16  5  3  6  6   13 .267 .341 .442    93    5.13
Chicago Sox   637   86  167  268  28  2  23   80  60  93  21  8  2  1 17   14 .262 .341 .421    92    4.94
Kansas City   634   84  173  261  29 10  13   78  65 108   7  8  8  7  8   12 .273 .345 .412    90    4.81
Baltimore    590   74  154  257  25  3  24   74  71 132   8  4  1  3  5   11 .261 .344 .436    89    5.18
Oakland    620   81  161  253  38  3  16   86  66 112  16  5  0  6  8   14 .260 .336 .408    86    4.73
LA Angels    636   86  173  274  27  1  24   88  48  91   8  2  1  5  2   17 .272 .323 .431    85    4.64
Detroit    602   83  153  268  26 10  23   98  66 116  12  6  2  7  2   19 .254 .326 .445    84    4.69
Cleveland    593   85  150  247  35  4  18   77  50 143  18  3  3  9  6   16 .253 .313 .417    77    4.33
Seattle    580   59  127  193  24  6  10   48  49 163  12  4  6  8  0    9 .219 .276 .333    55    2.99
As bad as he was last year - and let's be honest, folks, he was bad - Travis Snider was still no Brad Wilkerson. And Adam Lind had more ABs in LF than Snider did anyway. That's unlikely to happen in 2009, so the youngster needs to Step Up. He had trouble last season adjusting to his first real taste of Adversity and Failure, and seems to have shut out his coaches in the process. On the other hand, he appears to understand that that's what he did, which is encouraging. I think he's going to set a team record for strikeouts in the very near future, and the future begins now. Snider strikes out so often -ore than Adam Dunn - that I've worried about his future. He's not as good as Dunn was athe same age, but he's obviously young enough to improve a great deal, as we all fervently hope. Dunn didn't develop even one little bit from where he was at age 21, but he was already good enough to stay in the league anyway.

CENTRE FIELD   AB    R    H   TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
Detroit    656   98  167  303  24  8  32   77  77 148  20  6  3  2  3   2 .255 .335 .462   107    5.52
LA Angels    627   94  175  276  37  2  20  113  71 135  22  5  1  5 4   10 .279 .354 .440   101    5.64
Boston    677   99  200  274  27 10   9   66  51  89  70 13  6  6  6   17 .295 .347 .405    99    5.16
Cleveland    656   99  172  285  33  7  22   84  72 128  19 12  4  2 10   15 .262 .343 .434    96    4.99
Baltimore    655  103  180  291  29  5  24   94  52 129  12  5  2  8  7   17 .275 .331 .444    94    4.93
Texas    627   75  170  281  40  4  21   94  43 138  10  7  0 10 10   10 .271 .323 .448    90    4.90
AL AVERAGE    629   89  167  254  30  6  15   72  57 122  27  9  6  5  6   13 .265 .332 .404    84    4.55
Seattle    605   88  169  253  25  1  19   72  51 128  16  5 15  2  4   15 .279 .338 .418    84    4.75
NY Yankees    587   88  160  235  25  7  12   78  55  86  27  6 10  5  6   11 .273 .338 .400    83    4.77
Minnesota    601   99  162  219  27  9   4   57  57 121  24 10 15  6 11   4 .270 .341 .364    80    4.44
Toronto    656   87  169  260  37  3  16   69  54  98  18  4  0  6  1   20 .258 .312 .396    79    4.07
Oakland    632   85  177  240  34  4   7   65  43 101  39 11  3  9  9   21 .280 .330 .380    78    4.26
Tampa Bay    639   89  152  241  36  4  15   63  64 175  44 17  3  3  4   10 .238 .310 .377    76    3.92
Kansas City   595   80  144  204  21  9   7   43  64 108  31  6  9  3  5   12 .242 .319 .343    69    3.81
Chicago Sox   587   61  136  189  26  6   5   37  38 120  22 13 10  3  7   16 .232 .285 .322    51    2.79
What to expect from Vernon Wells? After examining the entrails of a number of defunct fowls, I... have no clue. None whatsoever. And neither do you. Whatever happens will be impossible to have honestly expected, which is fun in a weird kind of way. I mean, if we actually knew what was going to happen why would we even pay attention? Still, he was downright bad last season, and he's unlikely to be worse. This is our hope, and there's probably  still some talent there.

RIGHT FIELD    AB    R    H   TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
Seattle    693   96  239  321  35  4  13   54  42  81  27  9  3  3  4   1 .345 .384 .463   127    7.05
Cleveland    615   95  183  288  32  5  21   79  77 139  21  3  1  5 15   11 .298 .386 .468   117    6.84
Boston    578  104  163  303  34  5  32   88  87 138   3  6  1  4  5   11 .282 .378 .524   115    6.98
Minnesota    639  104  176  311  32  8  29   98  63 128   9  3  2  3 6   20 .275 .345 .487   103    5.62
Baltimore    656   94  192  295  45  2  18  101  57 101   6  2  0 10  3   12 .293 .347 .450   103    5.54
NY Yankees    585   93  146  281  36  0  33   89  98 143   2  1  3  6  5   17 .250 .359 .480   102    5.82
LA Angels    617  102  172  263  29  4  18  116  88 125  25  8  0 13  2   16 .279 .364 .426   100    5.55
AL AVERAGE    614   91  171  277  33  4  22 85 68 123 13 5 2 5 5 14 .278 .355 .451 98 5.55
Texas 610 91 161 287 34 1 30 92 63 140 23 5 1 4 2 14 .264 .333 .470 95 5.36
Oakland 602 92 171 261 36 3 16 76 68 134 9 8 1 4 3 10 .284 .357 .434 93 5.46
Chicago Sox 604 91 159 285 29 2 31 98 64 120 2 4 1 3 7 17 .263 .339 .472 93 5.28
Detroit 628 80 175 262 27 6 16 69 67 125 6 1 2 2 1 17 .279 .348 .417 90 5.03
Toronto 629 87 159 278 33 4 26 89 58 134 19 4 1 6 10 19 .253 .323 .442 88 4.72
Tampa Bay 533 68 138 228 39 3 15 79 70 118 14 7 3 7 0 10 .259 .341 .428 79 5.00
Kansas City 607 78 156 214 24 2 10 60 54 101 11 7 4 0 8 14 .257 .326 .353 69 3.84
It could have been even worse - Alex Rios might have been here all season long. Jose Bautista hit 9 HRs in 36 games and posted an .844 OPS in his late season turn as the right fielder last season, which boosted the team total above the Kansas City Experience. A full season of Bautista won't bring back memories of Jesse Barfield, but it should be just as good as the 2009 version of Alex Rios.

DH             AB    R    H   TB  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  SB CS SH SF HBP GDP BAVG  OBP  SLG    RC    RC/27
NY Yankees    576   93  156  285  26  2 33  106  81 108  4  2  0  4   5  10 .271 .363 .495  106    6.34
Minnesota    596   83  174  275  33  1 22   99  69 117   3  1  0  5   5  16 .292 .367 .461  101    6.00
Toronto    593   98  163  300  38  0 33   93  59 119   3  2  1  4   5  20 .275 .343 .506    98    5.73
LA Angels    622  104  184  292  31  1 25   93  46  99   7  2  3  1   4  25 .296 .348 .469    94    5.40
Chicago Sox   555   81  139  252  23  0 30   97  90 157   5  2  1  4   2  13 .250 .355 .454    92    5.55
Texas    595   99  144  292  32  1 38   97  57 136  18  4  2  2   4  11 .242 .312 .491    91    5.07
Oakland    573   93  144  240  24  0 24   81  85 170   7  2  0  4   5   7 .251 .351 .419    89    5.26
Cleveland    579   71  147  252  36  0 23   79  66 137   3  0  3  6   9  10 .254 .336 .435    87    5.06
Boston    576   83  136  256  35  2 27  103  81 145   1  2  0  7   6  11 .236 .333 .444    87    4.98
AL AVERAGE    581   83  148  258  29  1 26   89  69 132   4  2  1  4   5  13 .255 .339 .443    87    5.07
Baltimore    580   73  151  257  29  1 25   82  62 123   1  2  0  2   3  10 .260 .334 .443    86    5.06
Seattle    575   67  139  241  30  0 24   78  74 103   1  0  1  6   3  10 .242 .328 .419    82    4.70
Tampa Bay    549   73  134  222  23  1 21   90  77 141   3  0  1  8   4  11 .244 .337 .404    78    4.71
Detroit    588   73  144  223  26  1 17   65  67 127   4  2  0  5   5  12 .245 .325 .379    74    4.19
Kansas City   583   64  122  218  20  2 24   84  56 167   1  0  3  3   3  18 .209 .281 .374    59    3.20
Imagine how wonderful this would have been without the awesome work turned in by Kevin Millar, who hit an amazing .129/.247/.243 in his 70 ABs as the DH. Perhaps one shouldn't expect Adam Lind to be as thoroughly outstanding as he was in 2009 - I won't be moaning and gnashing my teeth if he hits .280 with 27 HRs and 95 RBI. But on the other hand... he turns 27 this July (so he should just be hitting his peak), not having to worry about defense definitely agrees with him (although it has its own peculiar entertainment value), and working for Cito Gaston certainly appears to have agreed with him. He could actually improve.

Hey! A happy thought to leave you with.
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Ryan Day - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#212674) #
Aaron Hill's 2009 season came out of nowhere - just how often does a guy double his previous career high in homers anyway?

Fairly often, I imagine. Hill almost tripled his previous career high in 2007.
westcoast dude - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#212675) #

A full season of Jose Bautista won't bring back memories of Jesse Barfield, but it should be just as good as the 2009 season of Alex Rios.

So far in Spring Training, Jose Bautista is batting .500 and slugging .967 in 30 AB.  Imagine if he hits within a hundred points of that this season--just for fun.  Think MVP, Triple Crown, a Nation transformed and transfixed--and Mike Wilner choking and gagging.  Marco who?

Mike Green - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#212676) #
The comparison has been made between Aaron Hill's 2009 and Davey Johnson's 1970.  It's a bit deceptive because Johnson moved from Baltimore to Atlanta in 1970 and hit 26 homers at home that year, but there is indeed good reason to believe that Aaron is much more likely to hit 25 homers than 35 homers in 2010. On the other hand, Hill also had a positive W/K in double A at age 22, and drew over 60 walks that year.  I expect this is the year that we see that aspect of his skill set come into view at the major league level. 

Magpie - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#212677) #
Fairly often, I imagine. Hill almost tripled his previous career high in 2007.

Very true, and it's often a guy going from 3 HRs to 6 to 17.

What I should have pointed out was that Hill actually doubled, not his previous career high, but his previous career total. That he'd accumulated in more than 1500 at bats.
Chuck - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#212678) #

Heroic effort, Magpie. Some random comments.

1. Just how messed up is KC? Among their precious few positives in 2009 was a non-stinky catcher situation (albeit thanks to some overachievement). Their "solution": replace the tandem with Jason Kendall.

2. Lyle Overbay is nobody's idea of a star, but his line vs RHP last season was 282/396/509. For that, he's the bete noire of many a Wilner caller and is treated like one of the biggest problems on the team. What other first basemen in the organization can come close to putting up a line like that vs RHP?

3. The Scutaro analysis was bang-on. Even if Scutaro were to stay and his offense regresses as we imagine it will, that would be a hit to the offense. Replacing 2009 Scutaro with 2010 Gonzalez/McDonald is going to hurt a great deal more than the average fan imagines (and kudos to Magpie for quantifying that).

4. I don't concur that Snider was bad. Sure, we wanted him to go all Kaline and everything, but a 98 OPS+ from a 21-year old is nothing to be ashamed of. I'm more impressed with what Snider did in the majors at 21 than with what Wallace did at AAA at 22/23.

5. I expect Lind to regress this year, but still be very good, and hopefully return to his 2009 level in 2011. Quantum leaps are often met with regressions. Asking for a 2010 that exceeds his 2009 is just plain greedy.

Chuck - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#212680) #

I expect this is the year that we see that aspect of his skill set come into view at the major league level. 

This will be a very telling season in Hill's career. He will lose SLG points. How can he not? Can he make up for it with OBP points?

From age 24/25 to 25/26, Pedroia gave up 16 points of ISO but added 25 points of walk-related OBP. We'll see if Hill can do similar moving from age 27 to 28.

jerjapan - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#212681) #

Great read, as always Magpie.  With the dark end of the season, I had forgotten how (relatively) solid the Jays offense was. 

There's a good read on Vernon's contract up at BP, free to non-subscribers.  I found it interesting to read the comments of non-Jays fans on the contract ... I had to read through about 20 before I got to a few posters who mentioned the wrist injury / felt he might rebound meaningfully.  Non Jays fans seem pretty convinced he's a sunk cost.

Also, a free article on Mauer's new deal and backloading long-term contracts - very interesting and makes some interesting points that apply to Well's deal. 

vw_fan17 - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#212684) #
Thanks for all that work pica pica..

A couple of thoughts: for all the troubles VW had, he was only 5 runs short of AL average offensively. So, while the defense was pretty bad, perhaps with a bit of rebound on offense at home, he can be above average. And maybe close-to-average defense? Might be tolerable.

I've always liked Lyle Overbay. For all his detractors, he just goes to work and does a good job day-in, day-out along with great defense. Sure, against LHP his day has probably passed. A Ruiz/Overbay platoon could be VERY potent..

I can easily see us gaining ground at C, 1B, CF and RF. SS, 2B, 3B and LF are probably due for a bit of a downturn. Overall, maybe a small improvement?

Any similar tables for defense? My guess is for the season we were above average at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, even in RF and in the hole at SS, CF and LF.
This year - decline at C, 3B, uptick at SS, CF (gotta be), treading water for the rest?
Chuck - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#212685) #

perhaps with a bit of rebound on offense at home, he can be above average. And maybe close-to-average defense?

An offensive uptick seems a reasonable hope, and not mere wishcasting, if his wrist issues have been resolved. But I fear that your handle betrays your perhaps overly optimistic take on his defense. Wells is another year older and likely a wee bit slower than last year. I'm not sure what is going to magically cause his defense to get any better. Bill James' analysis has Wells' marked decline in ability to go back on balls as the biggest source of his decline, and I can't see how that would be affected by his wrist in any way. As long as Wells stays in center field, his defense will pose serious problems. He may have to cheat by playing deeper, but he'll just pay the price on balls dropping in front of him.

China fan - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#212686) #

Looking further ahead, here's an interesting 2012 prediction by Jordan Bastian, giving his best forecast of the Jays lineup and rotation on Opening Day of 2012.  Anyone care to comment on his prediction?  Here it is:

1. Hechavarria, SS,  2. Hill, 2B,  3. Lind, DH,  4. Wells, CF,  5. Snider, LF,  6. Arencibia, C,  7. Wallace, 1B,  8. Moises Sierra, RF,  9. Brad Emaus, 3B.

The rotation: Marcum, Romero, Drabek, Rzepcyzski and Cecil.

Chuck - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#212687) #

Brad Emaus took a big step backwards as a 23-year old in AA. Some serious improvements are going to be required for him to earn a starting job in the majors at age 26.

It's minor, but it's odd that he projects Arencibia to bat ahead of Wallace. I don't know if that was just random or a sign that he doesn't expect huge things from Wallace.

As for the dude batting cleanup and playing center field, well...

whiterasta80 - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#212688) #
I'd probably swap Wells and Wallace in that lineup. Otherwise I'm fine with it.
ramone - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#212689) #
I think Stewart should be in the starting five.
Ryan Day - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#212690) #
Brad Emaus took a big step backwards as a 23-year old in AA.

Really, he just had one bad month. It was an absolutely miserably horribly awful month, hitting 122/200/178 in June, but aside from that he hit about as well as expected. I don't know what the deal was with the awful month, but it's not unreasonable to think that he bounces back this year. And given the lack of 3b prospects in the system - barring an outbreak from Ahrens - I can't think of anyone else who's likely to be playing third for the Jays.
Matthew E - Thursday, March 25 2010 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#212691) #
I refuse to believe that Hechavarria will ever suit up for the Jays. And I will continue to maintain this belief at least until there's an actual announcement that the freaking team has signed him. First things first!
brent - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#212692) #
Magpie - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#212693) #
I don't concur that Snider was bad.

You're right. I'm over-reacting to the strikeouts. But I'm certain he has to get them under control if he's going to be a bonafide star.

By under control, I don't mean Joe DiMaggio level. Carlos Delgado level will do just fine, with Snider fanning once every four ABs instead of once every three.
brent - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#212694) #
If you want to see how players can get upset by umpire strikezones, click here and scroll down to comment #5.
Spifficus - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 07:16 AM EDT (#212695) #
Heh. The Eddings LHB zone looks like a sock puppet.
Richard S.S. - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#212697) #

I believe there are work visa problems - for which country I don't have a clue.

christaylor - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#212700) #
Does Eddings have macular degeneration or something?
Ryan Day - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#212701) #
McGowan's been shut down for another two weeks, according to Bastian.
Mike Green - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#212702) #
My current spring dream is that Hechevarria signs and develops, Pastornicky and Wallace continue to develop and the Jays open 2112 with an infield of Hill, Hechavarria, Pastornicky and Wallace. 

When Hill came up, there was much discussion about what position he would end up at.  The Jeff Kent comparison was made, and Kent did spend some time at third.  I can see Hill having some Ron Cey years; I hadn't realized how good Cey was in his prime until I looked him up. 

stevieboy22 - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#212706) #

My current spring dream is that Hechevarria signs and develops, Pastornicky and Wallace continue to develop and the Jays open 2112 with an infield of Hill, Hechavarria, Pastornicky and Wallace. 

In this dream of yours, I take Pastornicky is the second baseman or shortstop? If we're dreaming, why not dream about the players with the highest ceilings?  Pastornicky is a fun story to watch, but Jackson seems to have a much higher ceiling...

92-93 - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#212708) #
Who is more advanced defensively as of now, Pastornicky or Jackson?
John Northey - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#212709) #
Always interesting to look at the actual final numbers and get a reality check. There is a reason the Jays scored 27 more runs than they allowed.

As to 2010 - I think I see why the kids in spring are throwing so many ground balls. Lind-Wells-Snider or Snider-Wells-Bautista or Lind-Wells-Bautista in the outfield (3 ways to drive pitchers crazy). In the infield only 3B isn't 'gold glove' level thus a ground ball is a very, very, very good thing in 2010 while a fly ball is a very, very, very bad thing.
rpriske - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#212710) #
Mike Green - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#212711) #
By all accounts, Jackson has a somewhat similar profile to Hecchevarria.  Good to great defensive player, some pop, contact issues. Pastornicky would be an adequate shortstop (but quite possibly a very good defensive second baseman) with no pop and good control of the strike zone.  My dreams usually consist of well balanced clubs which play good defence and probably don't hit 220 homers. 
TimberLee - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#212714) #
It isn't going to be required to describe our dreams in order to continue, is it?
Mike Green - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#212715) #
I was responding to the discussion above arising from Jordan Bastian's very tentative 2012 lineup prediction. These things are by their nature 1/2 projection and 1/2 dream.
Ryan Day - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#212716) #
I'd like to see Pastornicky in Toronto eventually. It's been ages since the Jays had a guy who could really run.
mendocino - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#212717) #

Another shortstop on the horizon ?

http://dplbaseball.com/

 

According to Christian "El Niche" Batista a number of teams have been following SS Luis Marte with strong interest (BOS, OAK, NYM, TOR, TEX COL). Batista says his player stands alone as the best SS available on the island this July 2nd.

The DPL has recently written a brief summary of Luis Marte tools and abilities:
"Luis is 6'1 170lb, wiry athletic body with room to fill out frame. Luis is a true SS that will stick at the position as he developes. Clean solid fielder that does it effortlessly, avg to plus arm, running 6.6-6.7 60 yrd, solid avg range and athletic enough to make tough plays seem easy. He combines his solid defensive play with a solid offensive approach, hitting .286 with occosional power. Luis is considered by many scouts a top ss for july 2nd."

vw_fan17 - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#212719) #
But I fear that your handle betrays your perhaps overly optimistic take on his defense. Wells is another year older and likely a wee bit slower than last year.

You don't know how many times I've debated changing my handle :-) It actually stems from my teenaged love of Volkswagens, and I've had it as a yahoo email account since Vernon played for St. Catherines in 1997.. I don't think there's ever been a time when Vernon was my favorite Jay, in fact. I was a bigger fan of "The Dude"..

My hope was that with a bit better offense, it would uncloud his head and let him play a bit better defense (at least mentally). I realize hoping for the physical side of things to magically improve is futile..
Chuck - Friday, March 26 2010 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#212726) #

It actually stems from my teenaged love of Volkswagens

I suppose it could be worse. You could be a Mercedes Benz fan and suffer the wrath of anti-Milton Bradleyists. Or you could be a Greg Maddux fan and be mistakenly believed to be a fan of General Motors.

"Ambiguity, the devil's volleyball".  -- Emo Philips

martinthegreat - Saturday, March 27 2010 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#212732) #
I wouldn't worry that much about Snider's strikeouts. Just look at Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, or that dude in AZ who's name I can't remember right now. I don't know how they do it, but they're pretty rockin hitters, but K all the time. So a decrease in strikeouts isn't necessary for him to succeed.
Chuck - Sunday, March 28 2010 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#212741) #

Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn are exceptions, not the rule. When they are not striking out -- which they do a great deal -- they are hitting a lot of homeruns.

Snider, in 2009, struck out in a third of his at-bats but did not hit for tremendous power when he did make contact. He may well defy the odds and become a member of the aforementioned group, but I concur with Magpie that his chances at success would be much improved were he to strike out "just" 25% of the time rather than 33%.

martinthegreat - Sunday, March 28 2010 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#212760) #
Keep in mind though that Snider is only 22 (and 2 months). He's shown a lot of power in the minors, and still would have hit over 20 homers over last season, if you extend his stats over a full slate of games. He probably just needs time. Dunn had success at age 21, but Howard didn't appear in the majors until age 24, and Reynolds until age 23.
People worry too much about strikeouts. I dunno how players can hit well and strike out 33% of the time, but it seems to work.

Chuck - Sunday, March 28 2010 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#212767) #

I think you misunderstand my position. I have a great deal of confidence in Snider becoming a very good player. I would not, however, count on him becoming a 40 HR/180 K player because very few players can pull that off. Three counter-examples don't a rule make.

It's true that generally speaking, too much is made of strikeouts. But there is a point where the inability to make consistent contact can hijack a player's game.

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