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Today we look at the prospects rated at 20 though 11. For prospects 30-21 click here.

20. Brad Emaus, 2B

Born March 28, 1986. Selected in the 11th round of the 2007 draft. 

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2007
21
A-
136
6
0
2
12
26
2
0
.228
.298
.316
2008
22
A+
473
34
3
12
60 56 12
4
.302
.380
.463
2009
23
AA
505
28
2
10
59
69
10
3
.253
.336
.376
2010
24
AA
136
7
0
5
31
19
5
0
.272
.402
.434
2010
24
AAA
309
25
3
10
50
50
8
2
.298
.395
.495

There isn't a whole lot not to like about Brad Emaus.  Aside from a horrible month in 2009, he has shown steady progression at each level of the minors culminating in a fairly dominant three month stay in Las Vegas.  Emaus has an incredible knack for plate discipline highlighted by his combined 81:69 BB:K rate in 2010.  As an added bonus, when he finds his pitch he often smacks it for extra bases, combining for 55 of them this past season.  While he doesn't have blazing speed, he's a smart baserunner and can steal when needed.

The only two real knocks on Emaus are his lack of above-average power and his inability to really stick at a position.  Addressing the former, his sturdy frame (6', 200 lbs) will likely allow him to hit double digit homers at any level.  As for the latter, this appears to be a genuine concern.  His defense has been described as passable which isn't really what you want from your second baseman.  Emaus has been tried at SS and 3B as well and hasn't found his groove at either of those.  While he will almost certainly carve out a major league career, he may be reduced to a super-sub utility role.  Otherwise if his defense progresses, he could eventually find himself as a starting second baseman.

  

19. Darin Mastroianni, CF

Born August 26, 1985. Selected in the 16th round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
23
A
325 10 4
3
31 77 30 1 .228 .302
.311
2009
24
A+
231 11 2 0 37 38 32 7 .325 .426 .390
2009
24
AA
247 10 2 1 39
45 38 8 .271 .372

.340

2010 25 AA 525 25 7 4 77 96 45 10 .301 .390 .398

 The Jays drafted Mastroianni in 2007 out of Division II Southern Indiana. A middle infielder at the time, Mastroianni would play primarily at second base in his debut season in Low-A ball, before being shifted to centre field and A ball to start the 2008 campaign. Though he struggled in Lansing, the speed that induced the team to shift him to the outfield was evident, as he was caught stealing once against thirty successes. He followed up his 2008 with a monstorous (relatively speaking) 2009, where between Florida State and New Hampshire he stole 70 bases and put up a cumulative .297/.398./364 line. 2010 saw Mastroianni maintain his plate discipline while upping his slugging percentage, setting career bests in doubles, triples and homers while still going 45/55 on the basepaths.

Probably the best basestealer in the organization (until Anthony Gose figures out how to not get caught 50 times a year), Mastroianni has blazing speed in centre and looks to work the count when at the plate. He is primarily a singles hitter and will almost certainly never have much pop (unless Cito comes back as batting coach...) Still, he is a high average, high on base guy, something the Jays have been lacking in recent years. Mastroianni is relatively old, turning 25 about a month ago, and after 2 good years in New Hampshire it is time for the club to promote him to Las Vegas, assuming they are willing to put him on the 40-Man roster. With a good camp it is possible he could claim the 4th outfielders job with the Jays in 2011, as he is a strong defender who figures to have a chance to hit at least as well as any of the other guys the Jays have trotted out in this role the last few years such as Dewayne Wise and Jeremy Reed. At the very least he is due a cup of coffee at the end of the 2011 season.

 

18. Brad Mills, LHP

Born March 5, 1985. Selected in the 4th round of the 2007 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 FIP
2008
23
A
15
15
81.1
7.86
0.33
3.10
10.18
2.63
2008
23
A+
6
6
33.1
6.75
0.54
3.24
9.45
2.96
2008
23
AA
6
6
32.2
6.61
0.55
3.31
8.82
3.23
2009
24
AAA
14
14
84.1
8.86
0.64
3.74
7.68
4.36
2009
24
MLB
2
2
7.2
16.43
4.70
7.04
10.57
9.88
2010
25
AAA 20
20
112.1
9.45
1.20
3.45
8.01 4.36
2010
25
MLB
7 3
22.1
8.06 0.81 5.24 7.25 4.52

The Blue Jays thought Mills was so nice, they drafted him twice.  Toronto first selected the Mesa, Arizona native in the 22nd round of the 2006 amateur draft.  However, he wanted to go back to Arizona for his senior season and complete his engineering degree.  He boosted his draft stock by being selected in the 4th round of the 2007 draft.

The 5-foot-11, 185-pound lefty rose quickly up the minor league ladder. After a brief stint in Auburn in which he went 2-0, he compiled a 13-5 record and a 1.95 ERA with Lansing, Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2008.   He began last season with Triple-A Las Vegas but was called up to Toronto last June when Casey Janssen went on the disabled list with an inflamed shoulder.  He earned a no-decision in his major league debut in Philadelphia but was pounded at the Dome by the Phillies in his next start. In his two appearances against the then-defending World Series Champions, he allowed four home runs, including a 500-level upper decker by former Jay Jayson Werth.

He began the 2010 campaign back in Las Vegas but was called up for a spot start against the visiting Baltimore Orioles in late July.  That night, he earned his first major league victory by pitching seven shutout innings and striking out four batters.  He reached the century mark in strikeouts in Las Vegas and has averaged almost a strikeout an inning in his minor league and pro career.  However, walks remain a concern as he has walked over three batters per nine innings in the minors and over five in his brief stints in the majors.

According to Fangraphs.com, Mills’ fastball is about 85-86 MPH with a 74 MPH changeup and a 71 MPH curveball.  Compared to last season, Mills is throwing his fastball nearly 65 percent of the time and his changeup 25 percent of the time. He is throwing 15 percent more fastballs from last season and 12 percent fewer curveballs.  His first three appearances were as a starter with the Jays but his last four have been out of the bullpen.  That appears to be his long-term role with the club in 2011.

 

17. Moises Sierra, OF

Born September 24, 1988. Signed as a non-drafted free agent.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
20
A
489
16
5 9
26
114
12
11
.246
.297
.364
2009
21
A+
459 24 2 5 34 66 10
2 .286
.360
.393
2009
21
AA
36
1 0 1
1
8
0
31 .353
.361
..471
2010 22 R 38 2 0 1 4 8 0 0 .265 .342 .412
2010 22 A+ 40 1 0 1 1 11 0 1 .162 .175 .27

Sierra was the BB #2 Jays prospect at the end of 2009, and with good reason. Still only 20, he put up a strong full season line in the pitcher friendly Florida State League - significantly better than Anthony Gose's cumulative line between the Phillies and the Jays in A+ ball this year at the same age, to make one comparison. Add in the fact that Sierra has an absolute cannon for an arm in right field, a bit of speed and power potential down the road and you can see why we were so high on him. Alas, the best laid plans of mice and men.

Sierra missed the beginning of the 2010 season with a micro-fracture in his shin, and most of the later half of the year with a broken hamate bone. In total he managed to appear in only 20 games this season, and essentially lost a year of development time, though he will likely play winter ball. He doesn't have a long track record of success, with 2009 being a clear standout year, and much of his potential has been based on his success despite being young for his league, which will no longer be the case in Duendin and only marginally so in New Hampshire. With that being said, his walk rate has improved from year to year, and while he doesn't hit a ton of home runs, his doubles have also risen continuously. 2011 will be an important year for Sierra,  and he will need to hit the ground running to regain his status as one of the organization's top prospects.

  

16. Joel Carreno, RHP

Born March 7, 1987. Signed as a non-drafted free agent.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2008
21
A-
15
13
76.1
8.75
0.71
2.24
10.02
3.42
2009
22
A-

2

2

11.0
4.91
0.00
2.45
9.82
0.82
2009
22
A
14
14
79.2
8.64
0.56
3.28
7.00
3.62
2010
23
A+
27
25
137.2
9.64
0.52
1.96
11.31
3.73

It's probably not too outrageous a thing to say that Joel Carreno had the best year of any pitcher in the Jay's minor league system, and perhaps the best year out of any player. He struck out an eye popping 173 batters in 137.2 innings, while allowing only 30 walks - a K/BB ratio of 5.77/1. To top that off he only allowed 8 home runs, making him a FIP machine - it was 2.36, one of the lowest marks in the minors for a pitcher with that many innings. But wait, there's more. After the FSL All Star Game Carreno threw 71 innings, striking out 90 and walking only 11. In 30.2 innings in August and September it was 35/3. While Carreno is not particularly young, relatively speaking, that's not his fault. Despite being considered organizational filler up to this point, he has essentially been anywhere from very good to dominant at every level he's pitched at; the Jays have just moved him along very, very slowly. It's unlikely things will change next year, and he seems primed to start the season in New Hampshire, where he will bring his low-90s fastball and strong breaking stuff. Because of their cautious approach and pitching depth, 2012 may be a realistic timeframe for Carreno to make the show.

15. Chad Jenkins, RHP

Born December 22, 1987. Selected in the 1st round of the 2009 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2009
22
A
13
13
79.1
9.87
0.57
1.47
7.26
3.63
2009
22
A+
13
13
62.1
10.54
0.87
2.60
6.06
4.33
 

Some around here have considered Jenkins, the Jays' #1 pick in 2009, a disappointment due to his underwhelming numbers. While it's true Chad didn't set the minors on fire in his first season, his performance was very respectable. The most encouraging part of Jenkins' season is that he has two very clear strengths: control and ground ball tendencies. Chad's walk rate was a miniscule 1.47 in Lansing and a still-good 2.60 after a mid-season promotion, and his ground ball rate was about 55% at both levels. I don't actually know if this is any better than just being average across the board, but it seems like it - if he can tighten up his slider or get a better feel for the change-up, for example, his strikeouts will spike, and suddenly he'll have all the components to be an excellent pitcher.

The ground ball issue is an interesting one. Bryan Smith at Fangraphs has written about ground-ball pitchers in the minor leagues being underrated because of the poor defenses behind them, and Jenkins' BABIPs of .335 and .318, while not outrageous, support that.

Coming out of Kennesaw State University, the scouting report noted Jenkins' 90-93 sinker, occasional 96 MPH four-seamer, plus slider, and average change-up. According to Gerry's soon-to-be-unveiled interview with Dane Johnson, not much has changed in that regard. The scouting report also noted Jenkins' "soft body", and that is one area that has improved (Jenkins apparently lost 25 of his 225 pounds before the season) according to this article by Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star, which features this gem: "Jenkins may have dropped some weight, but to hitters' chagrin his sinker remains as heavy as ever..."

 

14. Aaron Sanchez, RHP

Born July 1, 1992. Selected in the 1st round (supplemental) of the 2010 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
18
Rk
8
8
19.0
9.00
0.47
5.68
13.26
1.42
2010
18
A-
2
2
6.0
6.00
0.00
7.50
13.50

4.50

Aaron Sanchez was selected thirty-fourth overall in this year's draft.  He was born on Canada Day which pre-destined him to be selected by the Jays.  Pre-draft Sanchez was listed at 6'3" and 175 lbs, although the Jays have him listed at 6'4" and 190 lbs.  His meal ticket is a mid-90's fastball which he complements with a curveball and a Jays-issue change-up.  In their pre-draft write-up Baseball America thought Sanchez's fastball was too straight and his mechanics needed to be cleaned up.

After signing Sanchez was assigned by the Jays to the GCL where he started eight games.  He punched out 28 hitters in 19 innings but also walked twelve while giving up nineteen hits in those nineteen innings.  Late in the season Sanchez was promoted to Auburn where he made two starts with similar results, more K's than IP, too many walks and just a few hits. These numbers show that improving his command is the top task for Sanchez in 2011, when he will most likely stay in Florida for extended spring training and then be assigned to one of the short-season teams.  If he does improve that command he could get a shot to pitch in Lansing.

Sanchez is from Barstow, California, midway between LA and Las Vegas, so if he does eventually get to pitch for Las Vegas it will be like a homecoming for him.

13. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP

Born December 21, 1988. Selected in the 1st round (supplemental) of the 2010 draft.

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
21
A-
3
3
12.0
4.50
0.00
3.00
8.25
0.75

The general consensus amongst prospect gurus is that the Jays organization got a steal when it selected Wojciechowski with the 41st overall pick of the 2010 draft. The right-hander was selected out of the same college – The Citadel – as former Jays farmhand Chip Cannon. In his final college season, the junior posted a 3.64 FIP, a walk rate of 2.29 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.10 K/9 in 125.2 innings. He throws from a three-quarter arm slot with some effort but he does a good job of using his legs (although it could be the cause of some of his command issues). A monster on the mound at 6’4’’ 230 lbs, Wojciechowski can dial his heater up to 95-96 mph and he possesses a plus slider. His changeup is a work in progress and he could end up at the back-end of the bullpen if it fails to develop. If he sticks in the starting rotation, though, he could develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. Wojciechowski’s pro debut ended after just three starts; the club stated that it was simply to limit his innings, while other suggested he was suffering from an injury (although it was not considered serious). He could open 2011 in high-A Dunedin, possible along with the club’s first pick Deck McGuire.

12. Anthony Gose, CF

Born August 10, 1990. Selected in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
17
R
39
2
1
0
1
12
3
1
.256
.293
.359
2009
18
A
510
24
9
2
35 110 76
20
.259
.323
.353
2010
19
A+*
512
20
13
7
45 132 45
32
.262
.328
.393

*Combined statistics between Clearwater and Dunedin.

The Blue Jays surprised everyone earlier this year when they traded Brett Wallace, widely seen as the first baseman of the future, to the Astros for the less well regarded Anthony Gose. Only 19, the Blue Jays assigned Gose to Dunedin, in the same Florida State League where he had previously been playing for the Clearwater Phillies. Gose hit .255/.360/.426 in 113 plate appearances for Dunedin with 3 doubles, 2 triples and 3 home runs, displaying more power and patience in the Jays organization than he had previously.

Gose has two tools that stand out to anyone watching him for the first time: his speed and his arm. In 2009, Gose led all of minor league baseball with 76 steals in 96 attempts, good for a solid 79.6% success rate. He took a step backwards this year though, managing only 45 stolen bases in 77 attempts, a 58.4% success rate. Gose attributes this dip to a loss of confidence after he was caught several times early in the year, getting bad jumps or running in bad counts. He has acknowledged that he needs to learn more as a base runner, though his 2009 manager, Dusty Wathan, believes Gose has good instincts, stating, “He’s not the fastest, but he’s the fastest around the bases.” Gose’s arm also stands out. He used to pitch in high school, reportedly reaching 95 mph, and he notched 13 assists in 2009 and 16 in 2010. His combination of speed and arm strength should make him an outstanding defensive outfielder.

It is easy to see why Gose, named the South Atlantic League's most exciting prospect in 2009, appealed to the Jays. The team does not have many speedy athletic outfielders in the system, especially not with some of the power power potential Gose has flashed. Wathan has said he has “plus-power” and speculated he could hit 20 homers a year in the majors if he continues to develop. A left-handed batter, Gose has a line-drive swing and uses his speed to take an extra base on hits into the outfield gaps. He’ll probably return to Dunedin to begin the 2011 season and continue to develop his approach at the plate, contact abilities and batting eye. If he can bump up his average, cut down on his strikeouts and rebound from a disappointing 2010 on the bases, there is a good chance Gose could become a consistent top of the order threat the Jays have often been lacking.


11. Jake Marisnick, OF

Born March 30, 1991. Selected in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft.

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
19
R
122
12
0
3
13
18
14
1
.287
.373
.459
2010
19
A
127
8
2
1
9
37
9
2
.220
.298
.339

The Jays’ 2009 draft was a mess as the club failed to come to terms with three of its top four picks. The organization took that money that it failed to hand out and gave it to over-draft picks like Drew Hutchison and Marisnick, who secured a deal for $1 million as a third-round pick. The California prep outfielder did not play in ’09 due to his late agreement but he showed little rust in 2010 when he began his season in the Gulf Coast League this past June. Marisnick, 19, posted a .411 wOBA in 35 games, as well as a triple-slash line of .287/.373/.459. He showed a nice combination of power (.172 ISO) and speed (14 steals in 15 attempts). Moved up to low-A Lansing, Marisnick struggled against the more-advanced pitchers and hit just .220/.298/.339 in 34 games. His ISO rate dropped down to .118 but he nabbed another nine bases in 11 tries. Marisnick’s plate rates fluctuated with the promotion and his walk rate went from 9.2 to 6.3 BB% and his strikeout rate increased from 14.8 to 29.1 K%. Defensively, he plays a good center field but could move to right field as he fills out. He’ll work on making more consistent contact when he returns to Lansing in 2011.

2010 Blue Jays Top Prospects: 20-11 | 40 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#223707) #
I'd have Gose way ahead of Marisnick.  He's already put in a year of league average performance in the FSL at age 19, and there is no reason to believe that he cannot stick as a centerfielder.  In my view, his projection is at least as good as Marisnick's, while his performance so far is way ahead relative to league and age.

I have no idea what you do with Jenkins, Sanchez and Asher Woj.  Personally, I would have Jenkins lower than Sierra say, but that may just be a bias in favour of position players.

Great write-ups, as usual.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#223709) #
The Magnetic Fields provide the soundtrack for this minor league recap:

And nothing matters when we're dancing
In tat or tatters you're entrancing
Be we in Paris or in Lansing
nothing matters when we're dancing


Gerry - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#223712) #
The one thing that worries me about Gose is the batting average.  If you consider Gose is a speedy guy, playing against not the best defenses, he should pick up an extra 15-20 hits per season, and he still hit in the .250's, that worries me.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#223714) #
A lot of that is the league.  Team batting averages in the FSL ranged from .229 to .265.  By way of contrast, in the Eastern League (which is by no means a favourable hitter's league), team averages ranged from .246 to .273. 

Gose does strike out more than would be ideal, and this also contributed to his low batting average.  However, he was 19 in the FSL and his W/K rate was in that context pretty decent. 
TheBunk - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#223715) #
I definitely have some bigger problems with this list. I don't think Brad Mills or Darrin Mastoianni have any business being in our top 20 after the draft we just had. That's a 5th starter/swing man and a fourth outfielder who has zero projection remaining.

I still don't see anything terribly interesting in Sierra except for strong right field defense and age relative to league.

Flex - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#223716) #
It's troubling to see that Wojciechowski has the dreaded 'Inverted W' pitching form. I suppose it's not a guarantee of future arm trouble, but it's something to be aware of.

Quick thank you here to Mike Green. I'd never listened to the Magnetic Fields before, and after that little hint I went to iTunes to check them out. I'm now a fan.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#223717) #
You're welcome, Flex.  One of their recent songs has the lyric, "you think that you can leave the past behind/you must be out of your mind", which for odd reasons resonates with me.  Although not always in a bad way.
lexomatic - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#223718) #
I will be extremely happy if Gose can turn into Devo pt 2 (offensively, more steals, worse efficiency) defensively one can only hope.
MatO - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#223719) #
I also have no idea why Mastroianni is on the list.  What's the MLE of his numbers?  .260  .330  .340?  I doubt the Jays will even put him on the 40 man considering that the they didn't even promote him to Las Vegas when there were injuries.
metafour - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#223720) #
Gose is too low; I mean, given the list so far, that would mean that you have Jimenez above Gose.  Jimenez had a nice year really developing some tools into skills, but at the end of the day the outlook on Gose is still much higher.  Jimenez didn't even make BA's Top 20 MWL (although you could argue that he could have snuck in there near the bottom).  I think you're looking at a case where a fanbase starts to overrate some guys that have been there a while, while underrating a prospect that just came in.  Obviously this is your opinion, but everyone including the Blue Jays clearly sees Gose as being much better than 12th best in this system.

BA's FSL Top 20 just came out:

#5 Travis d'Arnaud
#8 Anthony Gose
#11 Adeiny Hechavarria
#12 Henderson Alvarez

Gerry - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#223721) #

The Jays put four players on Baseball America's FSL top 20 list.

#5 - Travis D'Arnaud

#8 - Anthony Gose

#11 - Adeiny Hechavarria

#12 - Henderson Alvarez

Mike McDade missed the list as BA says he has just the power tool.  No Joel Carreno either.

Four players on the list is excellent for the Jays.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#223722) #
They didn't promote anybody of significance from New Hampshire to Las Vegas because the F-Cats were playoff-bound and the 51s weren't.

Mastroianni is a Dave Roberts/Reed Johnson type.  By all accounts, he plays centerfield very well.  I imagine that he's here because those here believe that he could be a good 4th outfielder now.  It's the old projection vs. current level issue.  I agree with the consensus here. 

Thomas - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#223723) #
I'd have Gose way ahead of Marisnick.

Despite Gose and Marisnick ranking next to each other on the Batter's Box final list, our opinions of their talent differed noticeably. On 7 of the 8 lists there was a difference of at least 6 spots between Gose and Marisnick. Five of the lists placed Marisnick in the Top 10 and not Gose. The other three placed Gose in the Top 10 and not Marisnick.

MatO - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#223724) #

They didn't promote anybody of significance from New Hampshire to Las Vegas because the F-Cats were playoff-bound and the 51s weren'

Brad Emaus would disagree and they sent Calderone, who was having a pretty good season, to LV instead of Mastroianni.  I think you guys like him a heck of a lot more than the Blue Jays front office.

Thomas - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#223726) #
I think you guys like him a heck of a lot more than the Blue Jays front office.

The big question will be whether the Jays place him on the 40-man roster during the offseason. If I was a betting man, I'd wager they are going to protect him.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#223727) #
Something to think of in the future with these is to list projection vs currently at.

ie: Gose would be top 10 in projection, a lot lower for currently at.

Still, there are other sites that do each element (mainly projection via BA) so it is fun to see it all attempted to be merged together.
Chris DH - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#223728) #

I guess its pretty impressive when the likes of OF Anthony Gose and OF Jake Marisnick dont make the Top 10.  Goes to the depth of the Jays farm system.  Some of the comparisons for Marisnick include the likes of OF Dominic Brown, Jeff Francouer and Dale Murhpy.  I wouldnt be surprised if he is in the Top 5 next season.

And as mentioned in another thread Asher Wojciechowski, if he had enough innings, would have been considered at the top of the BA list for the NY Penn League where obviously Carlos Perez finished first.  However, I can see why the Box didnt put him any higher as he has pitched sufficient innings as a professional yet.

Pistol - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#223731) #
If you were betting on 40 man roster decisions you'd have a gambling problem!

I'd guess that he's not added to the 40 man roster, but I don't know how many players a decision needs to be made on this offseason.  There's certainly some cleaning up to do with 44 players on the 40 man roster at the moment (because of four 60 day DLs).

I forget, if someone is left off the 40 man roster (like Mastroianni), do they have to be taken in the Rule 5 draft and kept in the majors to be scooped up, or does another team just need to add them to their 40 man roster?

And bringing it back to the topic, nice work on the write-ups.  I don't agree with all the rankings, but the write-ups continue to improve each year, particularly for those of us who don't keep quite the same focus on the minors as you guys do.

MatO - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#223732) #

I'll bet a picture of a cuttlefish that Mastroianni won't be protected. 

If a player is taken in the Rule 5 he has to stay on the major league roster or be offered back to the team he was selected from unless some deal is worked out.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#223736) #
Not too big a deal, the 44 on the 40 man roster.

Free agents: Buck, Downs, Frasor, Overbay maybe Gregg

And there are 4 slots with no effort. If you want more...

Easy to dump: Hayhurst, Rommie Lewis, Mike McCoy, Fred Lewis, Hoffpauir, Brian Tallet, Luis Perez (5.40 ERA under 6 K/9, 4.7 BB/9).

If you still want slots...
OK to dump: Encarnacion, DeWayne Wise, Jeremy Accardo

So there go 4/5 free agents, 7 'easy', 3 'OK' = 14/15 open slots without losing anyone important in 2011 (free agents could be resigned after the rule 5 draft) leaving 10-11 open slots for guys who should be on the 40 man this winter. Many (Wise, McCoy, Lewis, Hayhurst, Hoffpauir, Perez) would probably take spring training invites. Many we just wouldn't want back (Encarnacion, Tallet, Lewis). Some can be left until the market shakes out (the free agents).

I'm sure there are more (hard ones would be McGowan, Robert Ray, Scott Richmond, Jo-Jo Reyes) if needed as well.

The Jays have many good guys on the 40 man but a lot can be dumped with minimal harm in 2011 and beyond. The 40 man is not an issue.
China fan - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#223739) #
I doubt anyone would take McGowan if he was left off the 40-man roster.  His chances of returning to the majors, at this point, are very low.
Anders - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#223740) #

And as mentioned in another thread Asher Wojciechowski, if he had enough innings, would have been considered at the top of the BA list for the NY Penn League where obviously Carlos Perez finished first.  However, I can see why the Box didnt put him any higher as he has pitched sufficient innings as a professional yet.

Speaking from personal experience only, I find it very difficult to place players with no or very little professional experience, other than to look at draft position or what other people's comments are. One can (and should) look at college stats, but those are always very context dependent. High schoolers are even more difficult, especially when they don't sign and play right away. None of us have seen Dickie Thon hit, and Noah Syndergaard 20 innings in the minors don't tell us a whole lot. Adonis Cardona didn't make the list; he could well be the 10th best prospect in the organization for all we know (he got more money than anyone that signed this year) but he is 5 years away from the majors and has no track record. I guess that's just a long winded way of saying that there is probably some bias towards familiarity here.

Another thing worth noting is that these rankings are a composite of the views of the 8 of us who wrote MLUs this year. Some of us prefer higher upside guys, some of us players closer to the majors or with a longer track record. As Thomas alluded to, several of us see guys in wildly different ways, and this years list does not particularly match up with any one of ours individually. I liked Mastroianni less and Carreno more than just about anyone else, for example. Ultimately I would focus more on the general area in which people ended up rather than debating whether someone should have been 13th or 14th.  

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#223742) #
Gose would probably be in my top 6, both for projection and where he is at currently.  I personally feel comfortable with assessing (tentatively, for obvious reasons) a player as of age 19 in the FSL, as opposed to a new draftee with 20 innings in Rookie League.
Matthew E - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#223743) #
I doubt anyone would take McGowan if he was left off the 40-man roster.  His chances of returning to the majors, at this point, are very low.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: we have not seen the last of Dustin McGowan in the major leagues. I don't know what he's going to be able to accomplish and I don't know if the Jays are going to cut bait on him, but he's got at least one more line on his page on baseball-reference.com coming his way.
TamRa - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#223744) #
I've said it before and ill say it again - Mastoriani is Podsednick 2.0

and yes, if he's not protected he WILL get drafted - there may be nothing easier to stash on a 25 man roster, particularly in the NL, then a speed-demon reserve outfielder.

Kenny Williams, for one, loves those guys.


Matthew E - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#223745) #
The other thing about Mastroianni is that, if he's related to the other famous Mastroianni, he could be a huge fan favourite in Toronto.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#223747) #
I think McGowan would have to be waived off the 40-man and would be a free agent, no?
DaveB - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#223748) #
Yep, add my vote to the consensus here that Gose is a better prospect than Marisnick and should be a Top 10 overall. Taking nothing away from Jake, who looks every inch a ballplayer and had a fine debut in the GCL, but he and Gose are about the same age and had a similar draft slot, but one is well ahead of the other. Gose was 150 OPS points higher with better BB/K ratios at Dunedin in about the same playing time Jake had at Lansing. It was a step up for Jake and not unexpected that he would scuffle a bit, but Gose has improved at each higher level, and improved even more after the trade. His defensive ability is already established as a significant plus at a key position. He has displayed all five tools and the steady improvement from year to year suggest he is coachable in addition to being a superior athlete. He has other positive intangibles that were noted at the time of the trade and we know for sure that AA considered him a better prospect than Wallace. I readily admit to a bias toward speed and defense but I believe Gose is the best and most important position prospect in the Jays' system.



dan gordon - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#223749) #

I made a top 50 list a month ago.  I don't have Mastroianni or Mills in my top 20.  I have Gose much higher - he's in my top 5.  I think what he has been able to do in a very tough high A league at the age of 19 is remarkable.  Marisnick is only about 7 months younger than Gose and played in leagues 1 and 2 levels lower than Gose this year.  His numbers at Lansing, in a small sample size, were not nearly as good as what Gose was producing at the higher level.  I like Marisnick, but I really like Gose.

Otherwise, most of the other 30-11 picks are remarkably close to where I had them, a lot of them within 2 or 3 spots.  I have McDade a fair bit higher and Carreno lower.  I like McDade's power for his age.  I may have put Carreno too low and might bump him up a few notches.  Love that K/BB ratio.  Bill James always said that was the best indicator of a pitcher's potential.  I have Alan Farina in my top 25 and I see he's not on the BB list (assuming he's not top 10).  I think he's underrated.  ERA 1.29, opponents' ave .134, only 25 hits allowed in 55 innings, with 74 strikeouts.  Striking out 3 times as many as your hits allowed is quite an accomplishment. 

I really enjoy these lists.  Thanks a bunch.  Looking forward to the top 10. 

PeterG - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#223751) #
I agree with those that suggest Gose belongs in the top 6. Also don't think Mastro and Mills should be this high though Mills may be marginal 20ish. With the overall 11-30 so far, and assuming safely I think that Cooper is not in the top 10, leaving him out of the top 30 is going to prove embarrasing to say the least. Best have another look at his production the last six weeks of the season.
brent - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#223752) #
Hoffpauer is already gone, claimed by the Padres.
Anders - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#223754) #
With the overall 11-30 so far, and assuming safely I think that Cooper is not in the top 10, leaving him out of the top 30 is going to prove embarrasing to say the least. Best have another look at his production the last six weeks of the season.

I tended to look at the last two years in AA, where he has hit a combined .257/.334/.416 in 1100 at bats a first baseman. He's still only 23, but the odds on him being even a serviceable major leaguer are decreasing rapidly.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#223756) #
I like reading the descriptions of size, age, tools and what a pitcher throws.
I try to hold back on evaluating the number a prospect got on the list. Its only me but I don't care #9 or #15 position.
But Marishnick #29 to #11 and Jenkins #4 to #15 from 2009 to 2010. So were these 2 surprising good and bad? These list are good reading & lots of fun.
When 2010 started I had high hopes for huge steps forward for B Bell & M Seirra, damn injuries.
H Alverez was my top prospect at the start of 2010,that included K Drabek. I liked so much about him. I expect Drabek & Stewart to be ranked very high maybe even #1 & 2 this year.
But Alvarez really disappointed me, I sort of expected him to perform really well get promoted to AA and then play better than Drabek & Stewart.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#223768) #
John Northey's 40 man list subtraction, I found very valuable. McGowan can be protected and then after ST if still not ready he can be put on the 15 or 60 day DL. The question is what is his present potential whenever/if he gets healthy.
IMO all of J Northey's subtractions are non-impact type of players. But take Jo Jo, if I am correct and he is out of option then he cannot be a Rule 5 pick off the Jays (40 man). So if he is a long shot for the Jays 25 man roster then there is a smart thing to do, but what is it:-
1)Trade him for something you can control for a few years without being on your 25 man roster.
2) He has to compete and win 5,6,7 spot in the Jays pen. If T Buchholz has options left then he can be your 1,2,3,4, call up to the pen due to injuries whereas JoJO cannot.
3) With long term in mind you have non-roster ST invitees like R Chavez & possible new 40 man like B Jeroloman as injury callups.
4) If M McCoy is out of options then B Eamus may have more value as a temporary injury replacement (infield) and Mastrionni (outfield). For 2011 I don't see any of the 3 being ML regulars. Still McCoy gives you position versility & speed.
Chris DH - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#223772) #

From todays BA chat.  Response on McDade may temper some fans enthusiasm.

    Greg T (London, ON): I see there is a reference to 1B Mike McDade being the home run leader in the FSL but only having 1 above average tool - power. With that, do you see him as a starting firstbasemen in the majors? Was he close to making the Top 20 list?


J.J. Cooper: No. McDade had a nice season, but there are worried about his ability to hit for average and get on base (141 strikeouts vs. 27 walks this year). Throw into that the fact that he's quite slow and below average at first base and he doesn't look like a big league starter at this time. Guys do improve, but he's got some significant improvements to make.

    Colin (Toronto): Can Gose's bat develop enough to make consistent contact to be that proto-typical .300+ lead off hitter with blazing speed?


J.J. Cooper: That's the big question. A lot of scouts look at his athleticism and his willingness to work and think he will figure it out, but if that was a sure bet, he would have ranked in the top five. Of anyone in the top 10 Gose has the highest bust potential.

    Phil N (North York): RHP Chad Jenkins just made it into the Top 20 on your Midwest League rankings. How close was he to making it on the Florida State League list?


J.J. Cooper: He got some mentions, probably in the 25-30 range. Here's one report: Big strong guy whose fastball has plus sink. Doesn�t walk a lot of guys while sitting 88-90. He projects as a plus control, groundball pitcher.

    Chris H (Boston, MA): Any love for RHP Joel Carreno? 173 SO with 30 BB in 137.2 IP.


J.J. Cooper: The numbers are sensational, but there were some guys questioning how he did it as they didn't see the plus stuff those numbers would seem to indicate.


 

Chris DH - Wednesday, October 06 2010 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#223773) #

Couple others.

    ryan (ns): JJ, any scouts or managers like Henderson Alvarez as a reliever? i wonder if his small size and two plus pitchers will lead to a bullpen role down the road.


J.J. Cooper: There was some thought he could end up there, but his stuff is good enough to keep him in the rotation for the time being. He'll get the chance to prove he can start first.

    Bob (Mundelein, IL): What in particular puts d'Arnaud ahead of Sanchez?


J.J. Cooper: I was kind of surprised that there was such a consensus that D'Arnaud was ahead of Sanchez as there was. The general belief is that D'Arnaud has a better arm, better power and potential for an equal hit tool to Sanchez eventually.

DaveB - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 04:13 AM EDT (#223793) #
Some interesting comments from J.J. Cooper there. As for McDade's fielding, here's an excerpt from a John Lott article in July about McDade, with quotes from Jays assistant g.m. Tony LaCava: “He’s a true power hitter, a good athlete and he may be as good a defensive first baseman as we have in our system,” LaCava said.

That may not say much about the fielding ability of the rest of the first basemen in the system, which at the time included Wallace. But there have been other comments in game reports and features about McDade having a good glove, and the stats support LaCava's comment. McDade's fielding percentage this year was a very respectable .992, much improved over his 2009 performance in Lansing, and a better mark than Lyle Overbay for example posted in any Minor League season. Statistically, his range factor numbers were about middle of the pack.
McDade was not a first baseman in High School, he was a catcher, so it's not surprising that his defense has improved and, with experience, should continue to improve.

But the thing that gets overlooked in Cooper's comments is McDade being only 21. He was the youngest regular first baseman in the FSL, in most cases by two to four years. Here's a stats comparison with another guy now involved in the playoffs, who also played in the FSL at age 21:

McDade: .480AB .267BA 21HR .315/.448/.763 27/141 BB/K .992 Fld Pct. 9.02 Range
Joey Votto: 464AB .256BA 17HR .330/.425/.755 52/122 BB/K .991 Fld Pct 8.65 Range

The only thing Votto did better than McDade, at the same age and the same league, with a similar amount of Minor League experience to that point, was walk about twice as often. It's obviously a key factor but otherwise their performance that first full season at High A was remarkably similar and underlines just how tough the FSL can be. McDade is not as good a prospect as was Votto, who right from the beginning of his Minor League career showed a good eye, and at 22 moved up to AA and tore up the Southern League and at 23 did pretty much the same at Triple A. But the point to be made is that for his age, McDade more than held his own. He was the best hitting 1B in the league and his defense, at least statistically and from other first-hand observations, was pretty good. Sometimes those big guys don't get credit for being better athletes than their physiques suggest.

fredlewis3 - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#223821) #

The Toronto Observer came out with a top propsect list:

http://www.torontoobserver.ca/2010/09/22/blue-jays-future-looking-bright/

TamRa - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#223859) #
That list is pretty weak.

Bowman (just to pull a name from memory)? does anyone else realize he will likely be a minor league FA and might not even be in the system next year?

Lubanski?

I was going to add the list to my database of rankings from around the web but....pass.


TA - Thursday, October 07 2010 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#223861) #
The other thing about Mastroianni is that, if he's related to the other famous Mastroianni, he could be a huge fan favourite in Toronto.

Don't know about fan favourite, but he certainly could live the sweet life.
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