Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - It Doesn't Get Easier

This could be a problem...

The Jays begin a 10 game road trip in Texas, and two things immediately strike one as cause for concern. One, the Jays are tied (with Seattle) for the worst road record in the majors. Whereas (Two) Texas has the best home record in the majors.

Hey, you could say they're due. Both of them...

The AL East standings are starting to assume the shape we've long been accustomed to seeing. The Yankees and the Rays are the only teams that do not sport losing records, but the Red Sox have won 10 of 15 and have just about drawn even at .500; meanwhile, after their nifty getaway, the Orioles have lost 11 of 13 and skidded back into the cellar.

The revolving door pitching staff notwithstanding, it seems to me that the biggest concern for the Blue Jays these days must be their offense. It has not been all that offensive. They've shot themselves in the foot a few times with all the aggressive base running - when you don't have a lot of baserunners, it's especially irritating to squander the ones you do have. I don't think much of the strategy, but I'm quite fine with it as a developmental thing, as a way for the players to find out what they can do.

Anyway, early on, Bautista, Escobar, and Arencibia were carrying the team. Bautista is still soldiering on, but Escobar has gone 5 for his last 36. That, along with Corey Patterson remembering that he's still Corey Patterson, means Jose Bautista comes to the plate with a man on base maybe once or twice a week. In his first 22 games, he has driven in himself 7 times, his team mates 3 times. This would be extremely unusual for a leadoff man, never mind a guy hitting in the middle of the lineup. Arencibia (4 for his last 29) has also cooled off, and just as Aaron Hill was starting to warm up he goes to the DL.

On the other hand... they are going to Texas, with that friendly ball park that just manufactures MVP winners...

And they're due, right?

Mon, Apr 25 Drabek (1-0, 3.00) vs Lewis (1-2, 5.82)
Tue, Apr 26 Litsch (1-1, 3.63) vs Harrison (3-1, 1.88)
Wed, Apr 27 Reyes (0-2, 6.20) vs Holland (3-1, 4.39)
Thu, Apr 28 Morrow (0-1, 5.06) vs Ogando (3-0, 2.13)

Posted by Magpie on Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:20 AM EDT.

It Doesn't Get Easier | 87 comments | Create New Account

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92-93 - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:49 AM EDT (#233466) #

Maybe the solution is to just bat Bautista #1. It's incredible that he already missed a series this early and leads MLB in WAR.

If there's ever a time to go into Texas this year it's when you can skip facing Josh Hamilton, Neftali Feliz, and their "ace" CJ Wilson.

DJR - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 06:09 AM EDT (#233468) #

Not that we should judge or debate the trade again based on the outcome, but I hope Napoli and Francisco get to face each other with the game on the line at least once this series.

Looking forward to it!

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#233469) #

The aggressive baserunning is fine, as long as Bautista is not at the plate.

Julian Rivera is starting to warm up. Then again, April is almost over.

Mick Doherty - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#233471) #

From the Department of Meaningless Statistics ....

Joey Bats has hit almost tw-thirds of his career homers (77/120, 64.2%) as a Blue Jay; he has 53.3% of his career RBI (174/345) as a Jay.

More than half of his career homers have come since the outset of last season (61/120). At his current 2011"pace," assuming 600 AB, he will hit 65 homers and drive in 92 runs.

bpoz - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#233473) #

Mick I love the 65 Hr but not the 92Rbi number.
I am sure I am being unfair to F McGriff, he always seemed to have the High Hr numbers & Below 100 Rbi number. The majority of his career was with 2 very strong teams, Toronto & Atlanta, so I concluded that when the team needed a SF or single with RISP he consistently failed.
McGriff was a nice guy & good player but I really believe that criticism of him that I made. How unfair have I been?

Hodgie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#233474) #

To expand that Department, the one time Jays outfield of the future, one that certainly didn't include Bautista, isn't doing all that well to start 2011. Wells, Rios and Snider currently are sporting the 6th, 7th and 14th worst wOBA in MLB respectively. If there is a bright side to this at least Toronto is only paying a pittance of the approximately $30 Million of annual salary being paid for that production.

China fan - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#233476) #

....Julian Rivera is starting to warm up....

Julian might be warming up, but his brother Juan is still mired far below the Mendoza line, with a .137 batting average and an OPS of .391. As for the warming-up bit: technically it's true. He's managed to hit .250 over the past three games. Three singles, to be exact. Which has dragged his OPS all the way from .342 up to a lofty high of .391. He still hasn't managed a single extra-base hit on the season.

I'm not disputing his historical tendency to improve after April. But he'll really have to improve by a spectacular amount to make himself even marginally useful.

China fan - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#233477) #

Over on the other thread, Mike Green noted that Eric Thames did not play for Vegas yesterday, and he wondered if that might indicate that he is being called up. I would love to see it happen, but so far today I don't see any sign of it in the Twitter feeds of any of the Jays beat reporters. (Correct me if I'm wrong.)

It appears that Anthopolous and Farrell are committed to giving Lawrie and Thames at least two or three months at AAA this season before they even consider a call-up for either one of them. (And I think we can categorize Lawrie and Thames as being at roughly the same level of development, given that Thames' injury history has reduced his minor-league playing experience.)

Farrell did say yesterday that he definitely expects to see Lawrie in the majors before September, so that's encouraging. But Anthopolous said this to Jeff Blair: "We have a development plan in place for him and I don�t think you deviate from it after a couple of weeks.... We�re trying to get away from yo-yoing prospects, from bringing guys up and down and up and down. I don�t believe that works at all. We have a plan for him � just like we had a plan for [Arencibia] last year, and just like we avoided bringing up Brett Wallace when Lyle Overbay was scuffling."

From this, I think it's fairly clear that we won't see Lawrie until July or August. And that probably applies to Thames as well. Even though personally I don't think the "yo-yo" is quite as damaging as Anthopolous seems to think.

Mike Green - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#233478) #

But Anthopolous said this to Jeff Blair: "We have a development plan in place for him and I don�t think you deviate from it after a couple of weeks.... We�re trying to get away from yo-yoing prospects, from bringing guys up and down and up and down. I don�t believe that works at all.

...but yo-yoing young pitchers is a proven winning strategy.

ayjackson - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#233479) #

I'd lean toward Cooper if I wanted to bring up someone right now. He could handle DH instead of Rivera, or in a platoon.) He'd be a good bench bat too. He has the most patient approach of the prospects, has a lot of pro at-bats under his belt, hits lefties and righties equally well, and has actually been hitting well for quite a while now (officially since July last year, but Jays staff has said that he's been leading NH in "hard hit balls" for most of his time there").

I'm fine with the "wait till June" approach too.

Gerry - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#233480) #

Thames started hot but his bat was cooling down over the last few games (small sample size, I know). I think the manager gave him a rest because of that.

Getting back to the topic it would get easier if the bats get going. I know Davis, Hill and Nix are out but Davis and Hill were average at best with the bats before their injuries. Escobar and Arencibia have cooled quickly from their hot starts. Patterson has flamed out and either Davis or Podsednik needs to ride to the rescue.

The Jays need several of Escobar, Arencibia, Lind, Snider, Patterson, McDonald and McCoy to start swinging it on this trip.

92-93 - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#233481) #

At what point does AA accept that Mike McCoy is worthless and try out someone else for the bench, preferably a LHB? Even Willy Aybar would be an upgrade.

Jonny German - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#233482) #

Odd to be ranting about a backup-backup, especially given that he's played well this year. Wassamatter, Farrell hasn't done anything to annoy you lately? That's quite a feat in itself.

uglyone - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#233483) #

I'd put McCoy up on top of the order instead of Patterson, really.

Can't wait until they open the Skydome roof. Seems like we're missing that jetstream badly. Lind/Hill/EE/Snider/Rivera are on pace for a COMBINED 15ish HR this year. that's not gonna work.

I thought playing in Texas might help, but apparently the weather there is now cold and rainy so maybe not.

pooks137 - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#233484) #

...but yo-yoing young pitchers is a proven winning strategy

I don't think anyone who argue that the LV-Toronto shuttle has been chaotic to say the least, but I would counter that most of those pitchers who have been "yo-yoed" don't fall into the "young" category and are mostly fungible.

I won't consider Casey Janssen or Jesse Litsch to be young or developping at this point. They are useful, but likely won't be here once the Jays are actually good.
An argument could be made that Brett Cecil should have been left to find himself, his control and his velocity at the major league level, but the consensus from media and the blogger world seems to be that something had to be done.

The Scott Richmond/Brad Mills types are the exact types of players that every good team should have riding the AAA shuttle, but not as MLB regulars.

If it were the Kyle Drabek/Zach Stewart types riding the AAA shuttle for bullpen relief and DL activations, I'd be a lot more worried.

Mick Doherty - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#233485) #

I thought playing in Texas might help, but apparently the weather there is now cold and rainy so maybe not.

I know it's hot here, but 81 in April (which is what it is right now) still doesn't FEEL "cold"!!!!!!!

Rainy, yes.

dan gordon - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#233486) #

Bautista getting picked off in the 9th was another negative for the new aggressive approach. Fortunately, even Farrell, who was promoting that approach since spring training, seems to be realizing that the team has become too aggressive. He mentioned that in the post game press conference, referencing Bautista getting picked off, and the players swinging at too many 1st pitches as being indicative of too much aggressiveness, and I say it's about time it got mentioned. Hopefully they will dial it down a couple of notches.

Regarding the comment about McGriff not getting as many RBI's as you might have expected, keep in mind that he was a patient hitter who drew a lot of walks. Guys like that will tend to get fewer RBI's than a free swinger like Joe Carter, for instance. The free swinger will get RBI's on ground outs, sac flies etc. that a guy who is drawing walks instead won't get. The guy getting the walks, on the other hand, will score more runs. For their careers, McGriff produced 0.152 RBI's per plate appearance, Carter 0.158. However, in the runs scored department, McGriff scored 0.133 runs per plate appearance, Carter 0.128, despite the fact that Carter was a faster runner, and that McGriff would have been removed for a pinch runner from time to time, particularly later in his career. McGriff was a terrific hitter, and doesn't deserve to be considered a "poor RBI" man. He had 1,550 RBI's for his career. Note also that the RBI's per plate appearance are pretty close to Carter, who is considered an "RBI man". There are a great many such "things that people say" in baseball that are revealed as false by looking at the numbers.

The Jays offense looks very weak right now. There are guys hurt, and the healthy ones aren't hitting, except for Bautista. Hopefully both factors will change in the next few weeks. Snider, Lind, Rivera, Hill (when healthy) and Davis (when healthy) need to get it in gear.

Mick Doherty - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#233487) #

Carter, who is considered an "RBI man" ...

Dan, this is a real question, not sarcasm -- compared to McGriff? By who?

Maybe Carter carried that rep in Toronto, but I really don't think that most baseball fans outside the greater Toronto area would slot Carter ahead of McGriff. I have lived in three different MLB-savvy areas (Ohio, where Carter played, New York and Texas) and can tell you NONE of them would opt for Carter over the Crime Dog. Noww, if you close that phrase with "... in Toronto," then maybe I can live with that. I don't know that to be true, but you'd know more than I would in that scenario..

James W - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#233488) #

Nobody sane would choose Carter over McGriff. Carter was just known as a player who got a lot of RBI. (In 1997 he had 102 RBI with a -1.0 fWAR.)

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#233489) #

I am sure I am being unfair to F McGriff

Then why do it? Like Jose Bautista this year, McGriff simply didn't have very many teammates on base for him to drive in (like Baustista, he himself was the best man on his team at actually getting on base, by a mile.) McGriff hit .288 in his career with runners on base, .277 with runners in scoring position (Joe Carter, for example, hit .264 and .271). But RBI opportunities are not distributed equally. Carter would typically have 350 plate appearances with runners on base, and McGriff would typically have 270. That's a lot of extra opportunities.

Did you know Mickey Mantle drove in more than 100 runs just four times in his long and magnificent career? That twice he hit more than 40 HRs to lead the league but still failed to drive in 100 runs? How did that happen?

For the exact same reason that Bautista today, and McGriff in the late 1980s. had trouble driving in runs.

There was no one on base.

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#233490) #

I won't consider Casey Janssen or Jesse Litsch to be young or developing at this point.

Janssen okay, but Litsch? Who is younger than Romero, Reyes, and Morrow. All of whom are one fervently hopes are still developing...

dan gordon - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#233492) #

compared to McGriff? By who?

McGriff was often portrayed in the Toronto media as a guy who wasn't particularly good at driving in runs. The big trade with San Diego was often cited as being McGriff for Carter to get an better RBI guy, and Fernandez for Alomar. The reality, of course, given the players' ages and abilities was that it was McGriff for Alomar (the 2 most valuable pieces of the deal) and Carter for Fernandez. The comment I responded to about McGriff not being an RBI guy was one I have heard countless times and it bothers me because McGriff was an excellent hitter and it was not a true reflection of his ability. Of course, McGriff was a much better hitter over his career than Carter, but to many people in the GTA in the 90's two of the main reasons the Blue Jays won the World Series twice were the additions of Alomar (which was true) and the addition of Carter as the RBI guy in the cleanup spot (which was not). The HR to win the '93 Series really cemented that view of Carter in these parts. I'm not really referring to the fans who really follow the game closely and know the stats and understand McGriff's value vs Carter. I'm talking about the fans who aren't as serious about the game and have a lesser understanding of the techniques for properly evaluating players.

Ryan Day - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#233493) #

Maybe this is one of those semantic things that doesn't bother anyone else, but I find it a bit unfair to describe someone as "worthless" just because he may not be a very good baseball player. I understand it's not an evaluation of McCoy's value as a human being, but there are probably better ways to express the sentiment that he doesn't deserve a roster spot.

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#233494) #

I missed this at the time. Ron Gardenhire explaining why they were sending Jim Hoey back to AAA:

Hoey needs to slow the ball down. All he can do is throw hard, hard, harder. And on our level, hard, hard, harder normally gets hit, hit, hit.

pooks137 - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#233495) #

Janssen okay, but Litsch? Who is younger than Romero, Reyes, and Morrow. All of whom are one fervently hopes are still developing...

I guess the "young pitcher" tag is somewhat arbitrary. I was surprised to find out that Jesse is only in his age-26 season.
I supppose being plucked from Double-A at age 22 will make a pitcher seem like he's been around for ever.

Rightly or wrongly, I consider Jesse Litsch a finished product. For better or worse, I don't expect him to ever best his 2007-08 production and consider that his ceiling, which would certainly still be useful as a 4th/5th starter with a stronger top 3.

In comparison to Romero and Morrow, with their major-league success/breakout being much more recent, I suppose I have more optimism that this trend will continue, regardless of their chronological age.

That being said, if Jesse could somehow figure out how to maintain his higher strikeout rate, currently at 8.3K/9, almost double his pre-injury rates while continuing to cut his HR/9 in half as he had been doing prior to his demotion, he may very well prove my presumptions wrong.

Chuck - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#233497) #

but I find it a bit unfair to describe someone as "worthless" just because he may not be a very good baseball player

To further exacerbate the semantic challenge, McCoy may be one of the top 900 baseball players in North America (if we use broad brush strokes and consider 30 players for 30 teams). That hardly makes him "not a very good baseball player". In fact, he's probably better at his job than most of us are at ours, statistically speaking.

While I wasn't the poster who used the adjective "worthless", I think we all understand that this is shorthand for "worthless to a major league roster" (which, of course, is an opinion that some will share and others won't).

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#233498) #

I find it a bit unfair to describe someone as "worthless" just because he may not be a very good baseball player.

Indeed. I also don't think it's accurate in a baseball sense. It's my view that everybody has value, that every professional baseball player adds something to the team. (And so I generally look with an extremely sour eye on any method of assessing performance that assigns some players positive values and some players negative values. I will always think that's utter horse... uh, crap.)

Some guys add more than others, and hence are more valuable. But no one is valueless....

Chuck - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#233499) #

But no one is valueless....

Your honour, the prosecution cites Chuck Scrivener's 1977 season as Exhibit A. Okay, he was a decent gloveman at shortstop. But you'll be hard pressed to hold up the corresponding Strat-O-Matic card and conclude there is value there!

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#233500) #

Juan is still mired far below the Mendoza line, with a .137 batting average and an OPS of .391. As for the warming-up bit: technically it's true. He's managed to hit .250 over the past three games. Three singles, to be exact. Which has dragged his OPS all the way from .342 up to a lofty high of .391. He still hasn't managed a single extra-base hit on the season.

Well, before that he only managed 4 hits in 39 ABs. The walks are down of course, but it would be shocking if they weren't. Why walk a guy hitting .100 with no extra base hit? I'd sooner put one straight the middle myself.

uglyone - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#233501) #

noting the SSS for this year, it's still interesting to look at Jesse's progression in his "healthy" years:

Year 1 (22): 111.0ip, 4.1k/9, 1.4k/bb, 3.81era, 5.14fip, 4.96xfip
Year 2 (23): 176.0ip, 5.1k/9, 2.5k/bb, 3.58era, 4.29fip, 4.21xfip
Year 3 (26): 17.1ip, 8.3k/9, 2.3k/bb, 3.63era, 3.16fip, 3.49xfip

and again forgive the small sample size, but in regards to him potentially improving his K-rate, here's what he's done while "healthy" since the 2008 season (i.e. before being shut down in 2009, and since coming back this year - basically everything since 2008 except 2010.

2009 Spring: 14.1ip, 6.3k/9
2009 Regular: 9.0ip, 8.0k/9
2011 Spring: 22.0ip, 8.1k/9
2011 Regular: 17.1ip, 8.3k/9

I doubt he can keep it up near 8, but an improvement to the very serviceable 6-7 range might not be impossible.

92-93 - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#233502) #

Your honour, the prosecution cites Chuck Scrivener's 1977 season as Exhibit A.

For Exhibit B, I'd like to put forth Brad Hawpe's start to 2011. He makes Juan Rivera look good.

christaylor - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#233503) #

" It's my view that everybody has value, that every professional baseball player adds something to the team."

In the strict sense every player adds value, over nobody filling his roster spot but I disagree with the reaction toward assigning a negative value (use the word contribution) to the team winning. I think the idea of judging player replacement level performance is one of the more interesting concepts added to thinking about the game. If a player is doing worse than a player who can be had for nothing would... that's negative, no question about it. I'll admit the whole concept of what is replacement level is a mine field but from the statistics there is negative value.

Then again, McCoy, Patterson, Woodward and their ilk may have value in that they accept their role, will happily bounce around the league. I'm not big on the concept of chemistry, but co-workers that are pleasant to be around and are flexible in their roles? That provide some value.

"Some guys add more than others, and hence are more valuable. But no one is valueless...."

I guess my point is that valueless/negative value, depends on what you're looking at and what the baseline is -- there always needs to be some standard, sometimes the standard will make it sensible to think of players providing negative value.

uglyone - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#233504) #

oh and I guess I could add:

SEP '08: 41.1ip, 6.8k/9

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#233505) #

I agree that the concept of replacement value is useful - I do think actually attempting to peg replacement value at a particular level of performance is a mug's game.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#233506) #

And on our level, hard, hard, harder normally gets hit, hit, hit.

I remember hearing Tom Seaver in the late 70's describe Tom Seaver in the 60's. He said that when he wanted to change speeds he just threw his fastball harder. I always liked Tom Seaver.

ramone - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#233507) #

Listening to the fishercats game today, in the bottom of the 1st Davis was hit on the wrist and removed from the game and on his way for xrays. We may have to get used to Patterson for a little longer.

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#233508) #

Any equation that assign value over replacement also establish a replacement value. I suppose if fluctuates like everything else in baseball.

A variable that's often overlooked is the ability to remain healthy. Case in point Encarnation. Which bring us to our daily lineup: McDonald at 2B, Woodward at 3B. Against the Rangers, that looks grossly inadequate.

Dewey - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#233509) #

On the issue of assessing others, I can never get far without remembering something Billy Connelly said: �Before you criticize a man you should walk a mile in his shoes. . . . By that time he�ll be a mile away; and you�ve got his shoes.� Sound thinking.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#233510) #

It seems Rajai Davis left the Fishercats game after one inning. D'Arnaud also left early.

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#233511) #

Corey Patterson averages 9.4 HR and 16 walks per season. Not exactly your usual top of the order bat.

electric carrot - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#233512) #

B-A-U-T-I-S-T-A spells "the man!"

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#233513) #

Seems (courtesy of John Lott on Twitter) that Davis was hit on the hand, caught stealing, and came out of the game.

Gerry - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#233514) #

Murderers Row Lite (tm)

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#233515) #

ESPN's simulation had Bautista's odds of hitting a homerun a 30%, but what caught my eye was Rivera's 14%.

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#233516) #

Bautista has now walked 21 times - this is just his 19th game (the team's 22nd). If you're curious, the AL record is 162, set by Ted Williams in 1947 (and again in 1949.) We don't know how many times Williams was walked intentionally (at a guess, I would say at least 25 times, perhaps as many as 35 or 40). None of Bautista's walks have been intentional. (When Bonds was walked 232 times in 2004, 120 of them were IBBs.)

scottt - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#233517) #

Bonds' Intentional Base on Balls With Bases Loaded (May 28, 1998) was one for the books.

VBF - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:10 PM EDT (#233518) #

People on Twitter calling tonight's lineup the worst ever?

Oh, how soon we forget. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200406240.shtml

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#233519) #

Ah, the Season From Hell. A week earlier in San Francisco:

Berg, lf
Hudson, 2b
Menechino, ss
Johnson, rf
Phelps, 1b
Hinske, 3b
Rios, cf
Cash, c
Hentgen, p

They didn't win...

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#233520) #

I would also suggest that each and every lineup that poor Bobby Mattick had to send out in 1981 was much, much, much worse than this one. By an order of magnitude.

Matthew E - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#233521) #

I would also suggest that each and every lineup that poor Bobby Mattick had to send out in 1981 was much, much, much worse than this one.

The Jays were probably the only team that year whose quality of play was measurably higher during the time that the players were out on strike.

Magpie - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#233522) #

The usual 1981 lineup:

Griffin, ss .209/.243/.289
Ainge, 3b .187/.258/.228
Woods, lf .247/.291/.309
Mayberry, 1b .248/.360/.452
Velez, dh .213/.363.404
Bonnell, rf .220/.263/.339
Moseby, cf .233/.278/.357
Garcia, 2b .252/.277/.304
Whitt, c .236/.307/.297

Dave Stieb actually went 11-10 for this team, which I think is the most amazing accomplishment by a pitcher in team history.

greenfrog - Monday, April 25 2011 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#233523) #

Joey Bats - wow. He's having an incredible April, obviously. It's amazing to think that he used to be considered a fairly easy out, and is now being talked about (at age 30) as possibly the best hitter in the AL.

On a related note, I wasn't crazy about Joe Maddon's reference the other day to Bonds's 2002 season. I wonder whether that was a bit of gamesmanship, trying to get into Bautista's head by comparing him to the poster player for PED use. One thing I like about Bautista, though, is that he seems to play even better when you make him angry (by talking trash, throwing at him, etc.).

Another nice start by Drabek. His career is just getting going and he already looks solid. Love the competitiveness. A bit more refinement, a year or two of experience, and watch out.

HippyGilmore - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#233525) #

Oh, how soon we forget. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200406240.shtml

It hurt my heart to look at that boxscore. How did that lineup score 13 runs? That was definitely the highlight of Kevin Cash's career. Also found it amusing that Eric Hinske and Orlando Hudson hit their 7th home runs that night, on June 24th. Of course, Jose hit his 8th tonight....

HippyGilmore - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#233526) #

Also, from May 1st 2010 to today, over 156 games, Jose Bautista has 62 home runs, which would make him the all-time non-PED home run champ.

HippyGilmore - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 12:35 AM EDT (#233527) #

Nevermind, I'm an idiot, did some too-quick math. He has 58, but there's still 5 days left in April...

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#233530) #

It hurt my heart to look at that boxscore.

It's not very often that a team hits two three-run homers in the same inning and still loses.

Sano - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#233532) #

Anyone else notice that Joey Bats was in the Tampa lineup linked above. Oh if only they knew then what we know now...

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#233534) #

Anyone else notice that Joey Bats was in the Tampa lineup linked above.

Part of Bautista's "blink-and-you-missed-it" stint in Tampa, three weeks during his bizarre Rule 5 year when he was passed from Pittsburgh to Baltimore to Kansas City to the Mets and back to Pittsburgh.

Also in the Tampa lineup was Fred McGriff himself, trying to bang out the 9 homers he needed to make it to 500 HRs. The old Crime Dog seemed to be warming up after a slow start, and he'd hit two of the homers he needed. But he went hitless in the three games against the Jays, part of a 5-39 skid that ended with him being released....

Sano - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 01:49 AM EDT (#233535) #

I'm still in amazement at how Bautista got passed around by so many clubs before something snapping and him turning into the baseball demi-god that he is now. For all the attempts to make baseball into a science, there's just something magical about what he's doing now. He's truly owning everyone. The way he just crushed that Lewis pitch tonight with the utmost disdain was amazing. It was almost like he was saying "Don't you know who I am?" to the pitcher.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 03:22 AM EDT (#233538) #

There was some real outrage expressed on this very site when it was learned that the price for Bautista was Robinson Diaz....

92-93 - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 05:31 AM EDT (#233541) #

Ironically, guess who was there to point out that Robinson Diaz was worthless and that the outrage was misplaced...

And let's not speak too ill of Quiroz and Cash, by the way. Far as I know they're both in the majors.

I think when people speak ill of them, it's relative to their peers - obviously making the big leagues is quite the accomplishment, and signifies a talent level it's safe to assume no commenter possesses. But that doesn't mean John Schuerholz deserves praise for bringing Tony Pena Jr. into the bigs.

All this hair-pulling over Robinzon Diaz is certainly strange ; guys who don't project to even be everyday players are always expendable, and the reaction in here is nothing short of amazing.

I got a kick out of the Bautista acquisition thread too. After expressing my excitement for the fact the team would finally be rid of Mench and was improving itself vs. LHP, ComebyDeanChance, who never misses an RBI opportunity, responded - The offensive junkpile grows higher. This move adds crap to crap in the infield. Hector Luna v.2.1. If this is what Ricciardi gets accolades for, he's playing a pretty soft crowd. Thomas added, (Excited) That the Jays did what? Acquire Pirates cast-offs? For comparison's sake, Bautista's career MLB line is .328/.397. Luna's is .324/.388.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#233543) #

I got a kick out of the Bautista acquisition thread too.

So you should! I think no one was more positive about adding Bautista than you (luckily, I had nothing to say!)

China fan - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#233549) #

Can someone post the link to that thread, please? It's certainly a cautionary tale for those who rely too much on stats, not scouts.

I remember regreting the loss of Robinzon Diaz, who seemed to be able to hit anything in the minors. But I'm pretty certain that I never spoke ill of Mr. Bautista when he was acquired.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#233550) #

Can someone post the link to that thread, please?

Jays Acquire Bautista

China fan - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#233554) #

Interesting thread. Actually a lot of Bauxites did see Bautista as a useful pickup. But too many of us put him in the Joe Inglett category: utility guy with no upside.

Interesting, too, to see how Scutaro was also perceived as an Inglett-type utility guy at that point. Scutaro and Bautista have pocketed a lot of money since then.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#233556) #

Bautista was acquired as a utility player. The comments were a mix of praise and concern.

His story to date is not really one of scouting vs. stats, but of development methods, good and bad. It is possible sometimes (but not often) that very significant development occurs after the age of 27. Your odds of finding gold with a poorly developed 28 year old with significant talent, are probably similar to the odds with an 18 year old with a 94 mph fastball and below-average control, but the cost is probably less.

China fan - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#233557) #

.....scouting vs. stats....

I was referring to Bauxites, not the Jays front office. Too many Bauxites rely only on statistics. Clearly the Jays had scouting reports that suggested that Bautista had potential for further development and wasn't necesssarily just a utility bench player. Too often we dismiss that scenario because we assume that a player's career stats are the only guide to his future potential.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#233561) #

This is probably not a good idea.

I was the one who was critical of McGriff's Rbi skills. I am glad to hear about the good BA & BB factor.

The "not good idea" part part came to me when I was thinking of J Carter, he gave us good memories. Then I thought there are good memories of another sort, people may enjoy reliving eg a famous celebrity ran on to the field and kissed a player.
I would enjoy that. BUT How about reliving some comments in the spirit if fun & laughing at ourselves in a polite respectful way. I mean very occasionally. I liked Robinson Diaz... so Ha Ha. We usually get a look back on Draft day and it is nice to relive some joy & anguish.

bpoz - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#233566) #

Regarding Scuttoro, did not someone get injured and that opened the door for him.
J Bautista was given an opportunity because 2009 was JP's last year and he may not have had the authority to do much. Although he did have the authority to move A Rios & try to move R Halladay. I cannot remember details.
In 2010, again I am not sure what Cito & AA's plans were, but Bautista did have a huge Sept in 2009, probably winning a full time job for 2010 and the rest was history.
Both success stories took me by surprise.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#233570) #

It is possible sometimes (but not often) that very significant development occurs after the age of 27.

Raul Ibanez is another pretty obvious example, but I don't know the story there. In the case of Bautista and Scutaro, changes were made to their approach as hitters. Bautista's hitting tools had evidently always been a scout's dream, but he could never get his bat started in time. It looks like he found the solution about twelve months after coming to Toronto. As for Scutaro, Tenace and Gaston persuaded Scutaro use his two-strike stance all the time - they thought it worked better for him. And it did.

ayjackson - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#233580) #

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, August 24 2008 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#191203) # He's better than Luna, heck he's a bit better than Scutero, so I no more understand the "another crap player" reaction than i do the "great move" reaction.

Then give it time, Will. /// How prophetic. For his part 92-93 seemed to be much more excited about the end of the Mench era than the beginning of the Bautista era. Nobody could have forseen what has transpired.

Anders - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#233582) #

Whew, I didn't dump all over the Bautista signing. That would have been embarassing!

I just made a joke about David Eckstein and hyped Otto von Bismark. I stand by my comments.

Kelekin - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#233585) #

I don't think dumping on the signing was expected to happen - no one expected him to be more than a bench player and we didn't know enough about him to assume he'd be good/bad as such at the time.

The point of reaction I'd be more interesting to see is post-2009 off-season. I remember many people, admittedly including myself, thinking it was time to release him. I certainly doubt there was anyone saying "Don't release him, please, I beg of you, he's going to hit SO many homers next year!"

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#233586) #

Magpie pointed out (IIRC) that Bautista had hit 10 homers after September 1 in 2009, and that there seemed to be a different approach at the plate.

That said, no one had any idea that that was sustainable.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#233601) #

Oh, I wish! I never saw it coming, but I was talking to someone who did...

I remember first thinking he was an odd pickup, because I thought of him as a regular. It's what he had been in the NL, but here he would clearly be a bench player. I also had a general impression of a player who was younger and rawer than what he turned out to be.

I did decide early on that he was a useful pickup, but entirely because of his versatility. In the era of the four man bench, one of whom must be a catcher, a player who can play multiple positions is enormously useful.

And I remember spending most of 2009 waiting for the power. Because his history showed he had some pop, but heading into late August he had hit maybe two homers all year long. I talked about him several times with Mal from the Jays PR team - Mal was a big Bautista booster early on, and he kept saying "just wait, he is going to break out and be something."

He didn't expect this, of course. Nor did I. The only thing I would give myself any credit for on the Bautista front is examining his twisted career path in the majors and minors, all the time lost along the way, and concluding that these were valid reasons to believe he might be a genuine late bloomer.

Thomas - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#233609) #

Ugh. I was somewhat more positive about Bautista's presence on the bench during the offseason. I hope. Let's dig that thread up.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#233616) #

If it`s missed judgements we`re looking for, I am demanding a little respect. Consider: I once tabbed Oliver Perez as my pre-season pick to win the NL Cy Young Award.

Who could possibly beat that? Case closed, in an "I am Costanza, Lord of the Idiots" kind of way...

ComebyDeanChance - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#233618) #

Well, I can at least be glad that my bad judgments are written in ink on the internet, although anyone who now claims to have foreseen the way Bautista rolled out likely has both a furtive imagination and a casual relationship with the truth. Also, if someone has to dig back three years in an effort to embarrass me, I'm not unhappy with that, though I have to question where some people get their time, if not their judgment.

If I recall, there was also some sentiment that Cito Gaston, having been given the soon-to-be-great Bautista, by the thus rehabilitated Ricciardi, should never have gone so far as to, you know, give him at bats, because all of those at bats were rightly the property of Travis Snider or, in Wilner's more ridiculous scenario, Randy Ruiz.

But as I rightly, (sarcasm intended given how completely wrong I was) said in the thread "Give it time". Virtually every statement of absolute certainty eventually comes back to haunt, and rightly so. Oscar Wilde best put it when he said "I'm too old to know everything" or something of the sort.

electric carrot - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#233619) #

I had Seattle winning the World Series last year ... that's maybe worse ...

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#233621) #

Hard to top my shrewd insights on NL pitchers. Obviously the Oliver Perez pick was special, but I believe I`ve also forecasted Brett Myers and Barry Zito... the best thing about Roy Halladay going to the NL is all the embarrassment he saves me.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#233622) #

The thread is called "It doesn't get easier", so I guess that it's an appropriate place for worst prognostications. My belief that Joel Collins was headed for greatness surely ranks somewhere up there. We'll have to wait a few years to see if the same will be said for my view that Tyler Pastornicky will be a solid major league middle infielder. As for the major leaguers, I held onto Chacin and Towers stock probably a year too long.

CeeBee - Tuesday, April 26 2011 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#233634) #

One positive about not posting very often is that I have less chances to put my foot in my mouth......Looking at the Bautista thread it appears I was fortunate once again. :)

TamRa - Wednesday, April 27 2011 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#233639) #

Hey Hey! He was quoting me!
*blush*

Actually, I remembered it pretty well - according to my memory my position was not "Luv Bautista!" (actually, I was skeptical until after the ASB last year but in my defense, i don't get to actually SEE games) though I like others figured he was useful in the same way teams no find Eric Hinske useful. Rather, my view was "Why in the hell is everyone sweating Diaz? I never liked anything about him but the cool name (when it was spelled with a "Z" in the first name)

I do remember prior to 2010 thinking they'd have gotten a better price on his contract if he'd been non-tendered and then signed and that possibly the were paying 5-700k too much, but also that less than a million too much was hardly worth breaking out the torches and pitchforks.
Certainly I never saw him as anything more than a Hinske-type with maybe a tad more defensive value.

bpoz - Wednesday, April 27 2011 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#233654) #

I have posted for a little over a year and am sure there are many bad opinions expressed.
I constantly thought G Ash had put the finishing touch to a contending team. Every year!!

Parker - Wednesday, April 27 2011 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#233668) #

Before the 2003 season, I predicted that Mike Maroth would break out in 2004 and come from out of nowhere to win the AL Cy Young. Instead, he lost 21 games and came from out of nowhere to lead the league in earned runs and homers against.

I also used to tell people that Brad Radke was going to put up better career numbers than Greg Maddux.

Oops.

BlueJayWay - Wednesday, April 27 2011 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#233670) #

I had Seattle winning the World Series last year ... that's maybe worse ...

Not to pile on you, but I still don't get why everyone was so high on the Mariners going into last year. I looked at the team, thought they won't score any runs, and they'd be really bad. Easiest prediction ever. Their hype completely baffled me.

ayjackson - Wednesday, April 27 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#233678) #

Not to pile on you, but I still don't get why everyone was so high on the Mariners going into last year. I looked at the team, thought they won't score any runs, and they'd be really bad. Easiest prediction ever.

True. But were they that different than the Giants in makeup? Stud starters and oodles of luck.

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