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There were only two games tonight, so less work for me!!! Except then I decided to take a closer look at Lansing's season so far. Wondering how your favourite Lugnuts have been doing? Click through to find out.


Round Rock 4 at Las Vegas 9

Las Vegas got six runs across in the first two innings, and never looked back. Brett Cecil got the start and six runs was plenty for the lefty - he allowed three runs on six hits and a walk in six innings while striking out five. Cecil has pitched well in his last four starts since his disastrous first Vegas start, not allowing more than three earned runs, pitching at least six innings, and striking out at least five.

The offense put forth a balanced effort, with seven 51s scoring runs and five driving them in. Brett Lawrie singled, doubled and walked (and K'ed), Adam Loewen drove in three with a homer and a walk, and Mike McCoy singled twice and walked. Travis Snider singled in five trips.

New Hampshire - scheduled off-day

Jupiter 4 at Dunedin 6

The turning point in this game came in the sixth when, with the bases loaded, Jon Talley tallied his fifth double (and second of the day) to score three. Dunedin wouldn't score any more, but Aaron Loup, Frank Gailey and Wes "Melissa" Etheridge held the Hammerheads at bay after Ryan Tepera had turned in a near-quality start (5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER).

Justin Jackson led off the bottom of the first with a solo homer and later added a single, while his draft partner Kevin Ahrens singled and walked.

Lansing - scheduled off-day

Three Stars!
3. Brett Cecil - QS
2. Jon Talley - 2 2Bs, 3 RBIs
1. Brett Lawrie - 1B, 2B, BB, 3 RBIs



It's been a month, let's start to check in on the affiliates to see what their batting and pitching leaders look like. We start with Lansing.



Marisnick, Crouse and Knecht have been the most impressive, though none are without their flaws. Specifically, they all strike out a lot. On the plus side, they also all walk a decent amount. Marisnick and especially Crouse have shown base-stealing prowess - they're 3rd and 4th in the Midwest League in steals, and also happen to be the only players in the top 10 of that category with OPSes over .800. All three players are 20 years old, with Knecht the oldest by about five months over Crouse and nine months over Marisnick.

Carlos Perez started well but has cooled off and is hitting just okay in his first taste of full-season ball. K.C. Hobson and Gustavo Pierre have had disappointing seasons to this point.



There aren't many pitchers of interest in Lansing. The big one is Drew Hutchison, who has been brilliant at times. Hutchison is striking out plenty of guys, and his 1.38 WHIP may be unfairly high given the low quality of fielders behind him. Actually, we can just say it. His 1.38 WHIP is thanks to Gustavo Pierre. Twenty-two errors on May 17???! That has got to be some kind of record.

Casey Lawrence has been the best pitcher on the staff thanks to a very low walk rate, but we really need to see good K-rates at the low levels if these guys are gonna survive when they move up.

As a team, Lansing has been quite good - their record currently sits at 21-15, 1.5 games out of the division lead.
All Bretts Are On | 59 comments | Create New Account
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woodman663 - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 06:39 AM EDT (#235002) #
I think Nolin is a pitcher of interest in Lansing too. He hasn't pitched a lot of innings, but he has a good K/BB ratio and he keeps the ball on the ground.
Lugnut Fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 07:01 AM EDT (#235003) #

Yes, Pierre is on pace to committ 88 errors in Lansing this season, shattering the Lansing record of 51 held by former Blue Jay Buck Coats when Lansing was a Cub affiliate and they experimented with Coats at short.

I doubt Pierre will finish the season in Lansing.  My guess is that when Vancouver starts up, he may be transferred there.  A fresh start wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Gustavo at this point.

China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 07:23 AM EDT (#235004) #
Over the past 10 games, Adam Loewen has posted a SLG of .719 and an OPS of 1.140.   He has 6 walks, 3 homers and 6 extra-base hits in that 10-game stretch.  He might be putting it all together now.  I wonder if he gets a shot with the Jays later this season?
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#235007) #
Justin Jackson is off to a nice start.  He's at .279/.382/.407 with 15 walks and 18 strikeouts in 28 games.  He have never exhibited good plate control before so this is a very welcome development.  He still can play a good defensive shortstop, and also plays third, second and (most of the time this year) centerfield.  He is 22 in the FSL, but you can definitely see the possibility of a career as a super-utility player. 
Anders - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#235011) #
Over the past 10 games, Adam Loewen has posted a SLG of .719 and an OPS of 1.140.   He has 6 walks, 3 homers and 6 extra-base hits in that 10-game stretch.  He might be putting it all together now.  I wonder if he gets a shot with the Jays later this season?

Who knows really, let's hope. It would be nice if he got a shot when the rosters expanded, for both baseball and non-baseball related reasons.
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#235012) #
Kudos, Dave, on the header.  Cecil and Lawrie being on Las Vegas is a nice kicker to it.
pooks137 - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#235014) #
I guess the issue with calling up Loewen is that you have to be sure he's going to stick since he's out of options.  Although I suppose given his age and the fact that he'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft anyway, it's probably now or never.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#235025) #
Has anyone actually confirmed that Cecil's velocity has returned to normal, or is this just speculation on everyone's part?
Dave Rutt - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#235027) #
First, nobody has speculated on that in this thread, so I'm not sure what you're referring to (unless it's something from another thread), but I believe Cecil did tweet that after one of his Vegas starts.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#235030) #
Greg Zaun on Primetime Sports http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/fan590primetimesports/~3/W86FeQ-i294/PTS-2011-05-16-6-pm.mp3 said Cecil was pitching at 92.  Isn't that 2-3 mph below his norms?
China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#235031) #

Here's the latest on Brett Cecil:  http://bit.ly/lnMBPz

His velocity is reportedly up to 91 mph, but the article also suggests that he is still below his velocity of last year and might need a bit more time to regain the full velocity.

85bluejay - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#235032) #
Greg Zaun also said that "Snider was raking in Las Vegas" , so I would take what Zaun says with a grain of salt - I think poster on this site tend to be more informed than most in the Toronto media - I'm amazed at the lack of knowledge of the baseball media in Toronto regarding the jays system.  
Kelekin - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#235035) #
I hope a bit closer to the draft we can start a draft thread! I've finally settled on Josh Bell as my hopeful pick for the 1st round, if he falls to us.  If Kolten Wong drops to the supplemental round, I'd like him to be the top supplemental pick.  With the pitching depth, we can easily get high-ceiling pitchers past these two picks, but elite hitters are few and far between in this draft and we should be taking advantage of that.  From Kevin Goldstein:

18. Josh Bell, OF, Jesuit College Prep (TX)

Pros: Bell is the best pure hitter among high school players, easily projecting to hit for both average and power, and he adds to his value by doing it from both sides of the plate. He makes consistent hard contact even against top-level competition.

Cons: He's very much a switch-hitting version of Rays 2010 first-round pick Josh Sale in that he's a highly accomplished high school hitter, but the bat might be the only tool; other abilities will limit him to left field.



Gerry - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#235039) #
Deck McGuire pitched a two hitter over seven innings in Dunedin's win today.
MatO - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#235041) #
My recollection is that Cecil sat at around 90-91.  If he's throwing 91 now then there isn't any more velocity to be had as far as I'm concerned. 
Anders - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#235043) #
Cecil was throwing his fastball at 90 MPH last year, on average. He was down to 88.4 MPH this year. I don't think that the specific speed of the fastball is the issue (though I'm sure there is a point at which one cannot drop and still be an effective pitcher), but that it reflected some larger problem, and maybe it did - he was walking almost twice as many guys, with his K numbers constant. All things being equal, a healthy pitcher doesn't/should suddenly start throwing 2 MPH slower.

That's my take anyway.

China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#235045) #

If you look at the Las Vegas newspaper article, Cecil himself is admitting that his velocity is still below what it should be.  He appears to be saying that he is occasionally hitting 91 on the radar gun, but he needs to be at 91 more consistently, and he needs to top out at 93 mph.  He seems to be saying that he normally pitches about 91 to 93 and he's not consistently there yet.  However, there are some contradictions in his quotes, so I'm not entirely sure of exactly what he is saying, but that's the best I can decipher it.  Here are the relevant quotes:

The 2007 first-round draft pick struggled to keep the ball down in Toronto and his velocity dipped to 87-88 mph. "When you're throwing that speed, it's tough to get outs when you're up in the zone," he said. "Last year, my velocity was 91 to 93 and, for the most part, the ball was down. To have the velocity I had up there (this year), it wasn't good enough to put it by anybody."

Cecil, who allowed three runs on six hits in six innings Monday, with five strikeouts and one walk, topped out at 91 mph on the radar gun at Cashman Field. "My arm strength has definitely improved," said Cecil, who credits a swimming and long-toss regimen. "My last three starts, I've been 88, 89, 92, so it's creeping its way back up."

Since that forgettable outing, the 6-foot-1-inch, 235-pound Cecil has been steady.  "Right now I'm right where I want to be," he said. "The ball's down, my velocity's where it should be, and hopefully it keeps climbing so I can be consistently in the low 90s again."

92-93 - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#235046) #
Cecil's obsession with the velocity of his pitches is unhealthy. You can't throw a baseball harder with desire.
China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#235048) #
I don't know for sure, but maybe Cecil was just responding to questions from the reporter?  Velocity is an easy metric to use on a pitcher, so it might have been the focus of the questions that he's getting down there.
hypobole - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#235049) #
Deck McGuire pitched a two hitter over seven innings in Dunedin's win today.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    No No walks, 6 K's  in his 7 scoreless. Also a day game in Vegas,, Lawrie has already homered. See you very soon Brett.
Hodgie - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#235051) #
McGuire is having a relatively quiet yet effective start to his professional career. In eight appearances and 42.2IP after today's game he has compiled 8.23 K/9, 2.79 K/BB and a 1.03 WHIP. Given that he will 22 next month it will be interesting to see how long his stay in Dunedin is if he maintains his current performance.
TamRa - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#235054) #
RE Jackson - he looked much better before a recent 10 game slide.

But he was 2/4 yesterday so maybe he's coming out of it.


92-93 - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#235055) #
The entire Dunedin rotation has been very solid. Nestor Molina's 39:3 K:BB is ridiculous.
China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#235060) #
Travis Snider is batting against a pitcher named Hamburger.  Surely he should be able to eat him up?
China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#235061) #
Alas, no.  Just checked GameDay, and Snider "grounded out" against Hamburger.  Darn.  I thought he was going to make mincemeat of him.
MatO - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#235066) #
Snider doubled in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th off ex-Jay Justin Miller.  An IBB to Cooper and an unintentional BB to Loewen ends the game with Lawrie scoring the winning run.
China fan - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#235067) #
All bad puns aside:  Snider actually hit a key double in the 9th inning as the 51s rallied for 3 runs for a 9-8 victory.  Loewen worked a one-out bases-loaded walk for the walk-off walk.  Lawrie scored the winning run after a 3-for-3 day, including a homer and triple.  Snider was 1-for-5 on the day, but the key 9th-inning double was the first extra-base hit that he'd managed in a while.
subculture - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#235068) #

Lol.

I relish future matchups once Snider begins hitting with more mustard, and better plate coverage.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#235069) #
Snider doubled in the tying run in the bottom of the 9th off ex-Jay Justin Miller

I believe that Travis tattooed that double.  My kids think that I am a robot with two settings, one for calculation of esoteric baseball statistics and the other for lame puns.  A true renaissance bot.
mathesond - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#235072) #
"I relish future matchups once Snider begins hitting with more mustard, and better plate coverage."

We all knew eventually he'd (...wait for it....) ketchup to the pitches
hypobole - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#235073) #

Lawrie continues to amaze me.  We knew there would be a learning curve in his transition to 3rd base and sure enough, 6 errors in his first 12 games, worriesome enough the Jays sent Mordecai to work with him on his D. Since then, 1 error in 27 games. A short time ago, when asked about lawrie, AA  more or less said he needed better plate discipline, and yeah as of May 10th he'd only had 5 BB's vs 28 K's.  So in the 7 games since then, 8 BB's vs 4 K's.

Today's game seemed to be like a kid yelling "Look at me!".

"I can do fundamentals (sac bunt), i've got power (HR), I'm clutch (RBI single), I've got speed with my power (triple), I can show patience at the plate (walk). What more do you want me to show you before calling me up?"

bpoz - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#235074) #
I have been toying with a strategy that is probably strange and maybe unworkable, and I am not sure if I can describe it very well. This would not work this year but maybe next year.

1) All minor leaguers are auditioning for a spot on the 2012 40 man roster. J Roenicke to keep his and D Farquar to be added.
2) A 6-8 man pen with the difference being position players. Mills & Richmond have burned an option already this year so that is not a factor for this year. In addition they must be pitching well enough to be a quality last guy in the pen. I believe that Z Stewart & H Alvarez have to be put on the 40 man roster at the end of this season.
3) Same deal with position players. If good enough M McDade could be added to the 40 man and stay down long enough to burn an option but also show enough to be a call up that is not over matched at the ML level.

Now I would simply play an up and down game. I can call up or demote Mills, Richmond & Farina at will but within the rules. Same with position players. So if I had a 6 man pen and the game went 15 innings I use an available SP if needed lets say LItsch. This means that he cannot make his next start so I call up Stewart or Alvarez to make 1 start and then demote him. Since I only had 6 guys in the pen, I would probably demote a position player say Cooper and bring up McDade after using Alvarez as my spot starter.
I know I am mixing up the 2011 & 2012 40 man rosters, also demoting any of our current 8 man pen is difficult, ie Janssen & Zep going down would hurt the pen and Dotel cannot be demoted.

TamRa - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#235079) #
Justin Jackson is off to a nice start.  He's at .279/.382/.407 with 15 walks and 18 strikeouts in 28 games.

RE Jackson - he looked much better before a recent 10 game slide.
But he was 2/4 yesterday so maybe he's coming out of it.



Yup. 3/4 today so the slump clearly seems to be over. Over 10 games from May 3 to May 15 he went 3/29 (albeit he did walk 6 times over that stretch)

Outside that 10 game stretch, he's hit incredibly this year:
.393/.471/.557/1.028

I vote for installing him at 2B in New Hampshire. It's not like Calix Crabbe is a priority.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#235081) #

What more do you want me to show you before calling me up?"

From Brett Lawrie I want 80-100 games played at 3B.   I want his reactions to be correct and become automatic.   This is about make-up more than it's about ability.   It's about the field being hard as a rock and being so hot, it's not fun any more.

TamRa - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#235082) #
Following up on the question i ask Gerry the other night - and acknowledging that I'm nothing like a professional and am way too impatient - I'm gonna do this just for fun:

Roster moves/promotions - overlooking for the sake of discussion the idea that the Jays might want anyone in NH more than in Vegas:

1. Lawrie to the majors, Rivera DFA (yes he'll heat up some at some point but screw it; Filler (Crabbe maybe) to AAA

2. Jackson to AA (at 2B) - no companion move necessary since Dunedin is overstocked anyway. but the could bring back Nolan or whatever.

3. Release MacDonald, and release or demote Lamura (to bullpen); promote Gonzalez or Beck to AAA; Promote McGuire and Jenkins to AA.

4. Promote Hutchinson and Lawrence to Dunedin; Add Sanchez to Lansing (they have six starters now)

5. Release Collazo, promote Farina to AAA and Wright to AA

I'm open to the idea that Molina deserves a promotion too but given his background you can wait another few weeks, until after the draft maybe.

Also, Gonzalez and Beck have both pitched well enough for a trip to AAA - the question is whether you want Beck to keep starting at AA or go to the pen at AAA (or do you try to have him stick as a starter?) If they think any hope he has is in the bullpen (which I assume) then I won't miss Everts or someone if they get pushed aside.

By mid-season, anyway, I'd like to see these rotations:

Mills/Cecil (or whoever loses their job to him)/Richmond/Perez/Gonzalez
Stewart/McGuire/Jenkins/Molina/Carreno
Alvarez/Wojo/Hutch/Lawrence/Tepera
Sanchez/Smith/Webb/Nolin/Diaz

Also, around mid-season, you have to look at promoting some of the Lansing outfielders. If they are still performing at a high level.


TamRa - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#235084) #
From Brett Lawrie I want 80-100 games played at 3B.   I want his reactions to be correct and become automatic.   This is about make-up more than it's about ability.   It's about the field being hard as a rock and being so hot, it's not fun any more.

The last thing anyone is worried about with Lawrie is makeup. The idea that the heat or whatever will slow him down is not even a factor. I get the repition angle, although at some point he's gonna have gone far enough that whatever he might lack on those instincts he can make up for by working with Butter.

I'm not gonna argue it's WRONG to keep him down at this point, but i think calling him tonight would be entierly justified.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#235086) #
Anthony Gose and Mike McDade have had nice games tonight for the F-Cats.

The major league club and all four affiliates are over .500. I can't remember the last time that this was true in mid-May.
brent - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#235088) #

This speaks to how fast GM AA has turned around the franchise. A strong draft works wonders, two consecutive strong drafts could sustain a strong run for years. You just have to hope that Tampa cheaps out on some of those picks before the Jays get to their slots.

Supposedly RHP is the strength of the draft, so I wonder if the Jays will go with that as a team strength.

rtcaino - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#235089) #
Also with nice games for New Hampshire tonight were D'arnaud (4bb) and Hech (2h, including a double).
brent - Tuesday, May 17 2011 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#235091) #
I can't believe JP lost his second round pick in 2005 (when the Jays were 6th in order) for Koskie. What a wasteland of lost drafts the Jays had 2000-20002.
greenfrog - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 08:42 AM EDT (#235093) #
There have been concerns about Lawrie's makeup in the past (for example, the Brewers wanted him to play in the Arizona fall league, but he refused). However, he apparently impressed the Jays personnel this spring with his attitude, and this would seem to be reflected in his performance in Las Vegas. Lawrie seems to be very motivated to excel, which is a good thing.
bpoz - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#235097) #
How do J Jackson & K Ahrens stack up defensively?
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#235101) #
Bpoz: I could be mistaken but the impression I've always gotten about Jackson is that his defence is very good. At least at SS. Not sure how he's doing in CF this year. With him the question was always whether or not he could hit enough.
Matthew E - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#235107) #
What a wasteland of lost drafts the Jays had 2000-20002.

Boy, I'm glad that's just a typo, or they'd really be in trouble.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#235110) #

Talking about a wasteland of drafts, how about the Jay's picks from  '79 to '83. All 5 years they picked in the top ten, yet ended up with Jay Schoeder, Garry Harris, Matt Williams (the pitcher, not the slugger), Augie Schmidt and Matt Stark. Too lazy to look it up but combined WAR less than 1 is my guess.  Yet by 1985 the Jays won 99 games.

Matthew E - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#235115) #
Well, Jay Schroeder did turn out to be quite a player.
hypobole - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#235130) #

Well, Jay Schroeder did turn out to be quite a player.

We didn't even get a draft pick from the Redskins as compensation.

TamRa - Wednesday, May 18 2011 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#235138) #
I should ammend my previous list to say Brad Glenn needs a promotion, but I don't know how you get him AB unless you put him in LF and move Tolisano around the field (has he been ruled out as a sometimes-3b? Sobo is floundering)

It's probably a function of Glenn being too old for the FSL to a large extent but why not challenge him? Well, yeah, to answer my own question - if your scouts are sure he's a non-prospect, you leave him in Dunedin to help the playoff push.

So, yeah. there's that. Anyway, just want to give the dude his props.
China fan - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#235139) #
Here's what I don't understand about Brad Glenn:  he was only drafted in 2009, and he has been promoted as fast as anyone could be expected.  So if he's a non-prospect now, he would have been a non-prospect when he was drafted.  And why would the Jays draft a non-prospect?  Seems to me that he can't be considered a non-prospect for another couple years at least -- let's say if he's at AA when he is 26.  For the time being, he still has a chance to reach AA this season and show some success there, and then maybe get to Las Vegas next year.  If all goes well, he could conceivably be crushing the ball at Las Vegas in his age-25 season, which should still mean that he's a prospect, no?
92-93 - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#235148) #
Teams draft guys to be good organizational soldiers all the time. Glenn's best year was actually as a sophomore at Arizona - his junior season saw a dip and then he tumbled to a .785 OPS as a senior. Now, it's possible Glenn has found some hidden talent to revitalize his career, but it just isn't very likely. There has to be a reason nobody was interested in Glenn after his junior season, and it's probably because no one saw any upside there. It's still very important for teams to "hit" on their college senior selections though - you want mature, intelligent baseball players that can hopefully infect all the young talent around them and get them in the right mindset to play the game the right way at all times and to bring a winning attitude to the field. Often these college seniors fade out quickly and join the real-world workforce, but a good number of them stick around the game in some capacity or another. Go Glenn go.
China fan - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#235150) #
I accept those points, and you're probably right.  But Glenn would have been 20 as a college junior.  Betting on the "upside" of a 20-year-old is a fairly unpredictable matter (even if it's not quite as unpredictable as HS player).  There must be lots of under-estimated 20-year-olds who develop into more than was expected.  That could be happening, in front of our eyes, in the FSL right now.
Gerry - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#235151) #
In my spring training reports I commented on Glenn and I discussed how his 2010 was derailed by some injuries.  Glenn's tool is his bat.  He doesn't appear to be a fast runner and he is an outfielder so he will have to find a spot in a corner outfield.  The offensive requirements to be a corner outfielder are large, Glenn has a chance to get there but we always have to temper our expectations of corner outfielders who hit well at lower levels.  Will Glenn be another Aaron Mathews?  Or a Ryan Patterson?  Time will tell, we have to keep watching, but firstbase and slow corner outfielder are the toughest positions to graduate to the major leagues.
China fan - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#235152) #
Sorry, he would have been 21 as a college junior.  (Darn that American nomenclature.)   I think my point remains.
ayjackson - Thursday, May 19 2011 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#235166) #

Ryan Patterson - there`s a name from the past.

Speaking of names from the past, I heard that the closer for my hometown Goldeyes is one Jamie Vermilyea.  There can`t be more than one, can there?

TamRa - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 12:12 AM EDT (#235199) #
So if he's a non-prospect now, he would have been a non-prospect when he was drafted.  And why would the Jays draft a non-prospect?

70-80% of all players drafted are not considered legit prospects, even by the team that drafts team. Once you get out of the first 7-10 rounds, you are drafting three types of guys -
1. fliers on players you don't think will be easy to sign
2. gambles on players who a re very raw or have one or two interesting tools but are unlikely to correct their flaws
3. Organizational filler - to give the actual prospects teammates to fill out the team.
Thomas - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 02:36 AM EDT (#235201) #
Ayjackson, it's the same Jamie Vermilyea (as you had deduced).
China fan - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 05:38 AM EDT (#235202) #

TamRa, I'm sure you're right about all that.  I suppose it's a definitional issue -- when I used the word "prospect", I didn't really mean it in the sense of "legitimate prospect." 

Year after year, when draft day rolls around, we get excited about almost everyone who is drafted.  Maybe we could use a dose of the skepticism that you expressed.

MatO - Friday, May 20 2011 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#235212) #
The Jays last year made a major change in their drafting philosophy by going almost exclusively with HS players after the early rounds of the draft.  Between rounds 5 and 18 they drafted one college player (Marze) and one JC player (Nolin), the rest HS.  These HS players are always tough and expensive to sign.  They're asking for more money than teams deem them to be worth at time (or else they would have been higher picks).  I think the Jays theorized that that maybe one (or more) of these players might become a high round pick after 3 years of college so let's see if we can get them now at a cheaper price.  An example of this might be Aaron Hill.  I think he was something like an 8th rounder out of HS and didn't sign.  After 3 years of college he was a consensus middle of the 1st round pick.  If he had signed out of HS then that team would have got 1st round value with an 8th round pick (assuming he developed the same of course).
TamRa - Saturday, May 21 2011 @ 03:46 AM EDT (#235259) #

TamRa, I'm sure you're right about all that.  I suppose it's a definitional issue -- when I used the word "prospect", I didn't really mean it in the sense of "legitimate prospect." 

Well yeah, that's true - most do. but in THAT sense the player you are speaking of would be a prospect.



Year after year, when draft day rolls around, we get excited about almost everyone who is drafted.  Maybe we could use a dose of the skepticism that you expressed.

Well, usually we get some report like "this guy's a first round talent who fell because he's a hard sign" or "if he hadn't gotten hurt he'd have been..." or some such.

Taking 2010 for an example

I was excited about pretty much everyone in the first five rounds (which turns out to be 11 guys) and Bryant in the 18th who was a near-impossible sign. Some of the other guys were more "interesting" in that you think this guy or that might bust out and surprise but expectations were more realistic i think.


Going back to 2009, past the fifth round we were told to be excited that we'd managed to sign Hutchison and Webb (both considered hard signs) and i really liked 6th round KC Hobson


In 2008, I liked 7th rounder Thames better than any pick that came before him, and was told to be excited about Sobo (4th) for what seemed logical reasons but otherwise found the group disappointing on paper (before they played)

2007: Liked every pick except Magnuson through the first five rounds and loved five of them. I don't remember excitement about anyone after that.


it's a small sample but I'm going to say as a general rule of thumb, unless someone tells me a guy fell because he was a very hard sign, or he was hurt, it's very rare I'm gonna give much thought to the guys past the first 5-10 rounds. it happens (and on occasion, someone from that neighborhood ends up being a quality player like Listch for example) but not enough to worry about.

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