Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The Jays are a game up on the Red Sox in the standings, and a million games up in our hearts. Advance Scout!


Just some quick hits, as time is short on this Freja's Day.

Clay Buchholz, Felix Dubront and Daniel Bard take the mound for the Red Sox in this series. Hands up if you would have guessed Doubront would be the best Sox pitcher through two months of the season. He's been quite good, while most of the other Sox pitchers have not. The Bard experiment has not worked very well to date, as he has walked the third most batters amongst qualified pitchers (BB%). Buchholz isn't much better in the walks department (Drabek is actually second worst, and Romero 5th, for what it's worth), and isn't striking guys out. Combined with sky high home run and balls in play rates and he's getting consistently torched. Bard and Doubront have each faced the Jays once, both going five; Bard gave up 5 runs and Doubront 2.

Hitting wise, other than not having any outfielders the Red Sox are doing okay: they're second to the Rangers in the AL, and the gap between them and #3 is quite large. David Ortiz is hitting like it's 2006, and is striking out less often than he has at any point in his career... Will Middlebrooks is doing his best Ted Williams impression, but is basically a real estate bubble waiting to burst. He's walking 4% of the time and striking out 29%, he has a .400 BABIP, and a quarter of his fly balls are going out. So basically, sell high, fantasy owners... Meanwhile Jarrod Salta... Saltala... Jarrod Salty is doing his best JP Arencibia impression, hitting .281/.316/.594. His platoon-mate, Kelly Shoppach, is only hitting .270/.370/.492. Natch... Meanwhile Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Gonzalez are doing very un-Gonzalez and un-Youklian things, while Dustin Pedroia isn't in peak form in the least. Jacoby Ellsbury's been out almost all year, while Hot Carl Crawford has actually been out all year, with Daniel Nava, Ryan Sweeney, Marlon Byrd, Darnell McDonald and now Scott Podsednik filling in. Most of these guys have actually been great in spot duty, but the guys they've replaced aren't any slouches, so I wouldn't count out the Red Sox just yet.

Song to Advance Scout By: Well, since the Jays swept the last series, the law is pretty clear that we have to repeat our song of the scout. Since I don't know any other Carly Rae Jepsen songs, here is the Harvard Baseball team performing to Call Me Maybe.

Chart: Thanks, Fangraphs, for the data.


Advance Scout: Red Sox, June 1-3 | 74 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#257556) #
I believe Pedroia is out for the series, continuing the Jays streak of good fortune facing very shorthanded teams. Last night Boston's 1-2 hitters were Scott Podsednik and Daniel Nava, which is incredible considering they have scored the 2nd most runs in the league. It should be a slugfest between the #2 & #3 offenses sending out their 3-4-5 starters.

Can we get a draft thread for the weekend? I'd like to hear people's thoughts as we get closer.
Dewey - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#257557) #
Freja's Day

Hey, bonus points for that, Anders.  She's a doll
uglyone - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#257560) #
"continuing the Jays streak of good fortune facing very shorthanded teams."

heh.

The Jays aren't the only team that players miss games against.

One of the toughest schedules in the league this year, and it gets no easier against a red-hot Sox team this weekend....because the Sox' injury replacement players have actually been better so far than the injured guys themselves.

Big series. June is usually when the Jays start their annual swan dive. A good series puts us up near the top of the division at game 54, the exact 1/3 mark of the season, a bad series puts us right at the bottom.

greenfrog - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#257561) #
The Red Sox are 6-4 in their last ten games, and are missing Crawford, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ross, Bailey, and others. The scheduled opposing starters are Buchholz (7.19 ERA), Dubront and Bard. No Lester.

You never want to take your opponents lightly, but calling the Sox red-hot or suggesting that playing them continues "one of the toughest schedules in the league" seems a stretch to me.
BlueJayWay - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#257565) #
Buccholz, 7 career starts in Toronto, 1.62 era and opponents ops of about .520.  Is he due to get knocked around?
uglyone - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#257566) #
Fair enough, but I'll beg to differ on that one.

The Red Sox are 14-6 in their last 20gms. They've lost only 1 of their last 7 series - and that came on a 9th inning walk off game tying and winning HR by TB in the rubber match of the series.

They may have injuries, but their replacements are all screaming hot - CF Podsednik (1.167ops), LF Nava (.900), and 3B Middlebrooks (.922).

Their bullpen is on fire as well - in May: Atchison 0.00era, Albers 1.98, Miller 2.38, Hill 2.45, Aceves 2.89, Padilla 2.92, Morales 4.50

As for the 3 SP we're facing this series, Doubront has been their best starter this year.
greenfrog - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#257570) #
Podsednik has 21 PAs so far! He's the reason you think the Red Sox are going to be tough to beat?

If the Jays lose the series, my guess is that they will have beaten themselves.
sam - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#257571) #
Agreed greenfrog.
greenfrog - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#257572) #
Gosh, Bautista sure is acting like an entitled baby these days. The pitches he complains about are often borderline - it's not as though he's getting royally screwed. He would probably get more calls if he cooled it with the attitude and just focused on hitting.

No doubt he's frustrated at himself more than anything, but he's not doing himself any favours with the histrionics / hissy fits.
Bid - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#257573) #
Bautista isn't the only one, although he's the leader (or should be). This continuing failure to extinguish a very negative and counterproductive behavior is on the manager as far as I'm concerned.
sam - Friday, June 01 2012 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#257574) #
He's the team leader, HE needs to act better.

I'm going to say this and I'm sure everyone in these parts are going to tell me I'm crazy, but there are real issues with Brett Lawrie's swing. He seems to have a hitch before he lets his hands go and he just doesn't seem to be able to handle much at the plate. I don't remember the last time he was able to really turn on the ball with any conviction.
85bluejay - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#257576) #

Gose playing LF tonight in Vegas & Farrell's desire for another lefthanded bat & with Snider still out - this will spark speculation that Gose may come up to platoon with Davis after this series. - It's rushing Gose but the Jays are a desperate team.

Very impressed with Boston - with all the turmoil & injuries to be where they are is very bad news for the rest of the division.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#257578) #
Decision time on Alvarez, are we contending? That's not the first time Perez did that.
This team needs a good Starter, this summer (Are we contending?) or in the off- season. Waiting for the kids is taking too long.
The Bullpen is not good enough, even with Santos returning. There is not enough consistency in reliever's appearances. Even A.A. knows that, look at the recent Bullpen moves. We lose 5 in a row on the road and were still only 2 GBL.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#257579) #
Does Colby Rasmus remind anyone else of Rick Monday?
John Northey - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#257582) #
Quick and dirty assessment of team...
Starting pitching ERA+...
130-114-106-94-89 = 533
2011...
147-91-91-80-71 (Alvarez 122 but #7 in starts)
480 (531 w Alvarez instead of Drabek)

Drop off in ace, big jump in #2/3/4/5 slots though. Interesting that if you drop Drabek from 2011's and put in Alvarez though you end up with virtually the same score overall.

Offence (CA-1B-2B-3B-SS-LF-CF-RF-DH) OPS+
Listing Cooper over Lind, Davis over Thames (Thames & Lind in brackets)
88-151(58)-107-88-72-118(75)-95-107-140 = 966 (830)
2011...
90-95-57-152-111-104-67-181-110 = 967

CA about the same, Cooper off to a great start, 2B a major jump, 3B a drop (but remember Lawrie in 2011 had just 171 PA), SS a drop, LF might be a wash overall, CF a big jump, RF a giant drop, DH a big jump. Interesting that with Cooper & Davis it is just one point off overall from last year, but without does it ever drop despite the jump at 2B & DH.

Obviously sample size issues abound here. Still, a fun quick and dirty way to look at it.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#257586) #
Farrell starts Cooper instead of Arencibia as DH against a lefty this afternoon.  Hot hand and fully resting a catcher trumps platoon advantage, I guess. 
scottt - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#257588) #
Cooper is locked in, JPA is cooling off. Doubront doesn't have noticeable splits.

Or maybe JPA DHed only when Gomes was on the bench.

dan gordon - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#257590) #

Looking at some mlb team stats today, and noticed that the Blue Jays have the highest ratio of ground ball outs to fly outs in mlb.  StL is close, but after that there's a big gap.  Most teams are around 1.10 to 1.30, while the Jays are 1.55.  Texas is at the opposite end at 0.98.

The Jays have one of the lowest team batting averages in mlb.  Three teams are below .225, then there are a few around .240 including the Jays.  The other low average teams, unlike the Jays, are typically NL (no DH) and/or play in poor hitters parks.

Until Johnson's RBI single today, their last 7 runs have all been scored on solo home runs.  When you're not hitting for average and not walking a lot, that kind of thing can happen.  There probably isn't an official record for most consecutive runs scored on solo home runs, but I would think that 7 is pretty rare.

Cooper DHing vs a left-handed pitcher doesn't look like a good idea to me.  Neither does Arencibia against a righty.  Instead of an extra bullpen arm, they need to get another bat on the roster, whether it be Gomes, Guerrero or somebody else.

Frustrating how often the Jays lose to Boston and Tampa. 

greenfrog - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#257592) #
Another year, another low team OBP (I seem to say this every year). I worry that young players like Rasmus, Lawrie, Thames and others are getting the message (implicitly or explicitly) that the Jays are OK with them not getting on base. For whatever reason, once a player joins the Jays, their OBP seems to go all to hell. For example:

- In the minors, Lawrie had an OBP of .360 and posted a .373 OBP when he first came up in 2011. This year his OBP is down to .310.

- Before joining the Jays, Rasmus posted OBPs of .307, .361, and .332 with the Cardinals. Since then his OBP has been .201 (2011 - Toronto) and .305 (2012).

- In the minors, Thames had an OBP of .383. Career OBP in the majors? .306.

- Arencibia has a career .273 OBP with Toronto, which is, frankly, terrible.

What is going to happen to d'Arnaud, Gose, Hechavarria and others when they join the ML club - will they become hackers too? What happens when KJ and EE depart via free agency? Will 2013 be another OBP black hole for the Jays?
sam - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#257593) #
Greenfrog, bang on with your prognosis the other day with beating ourselves. Brett Lawrie is not the brightest guy on the base-paths it would seem. Stealing home with bases loaded and Jose Bautista up and now trying to steal third with two outs. Yikes.
blu-j - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#257594) #
Will/should there be any ramifications for Lawrie trying to steal third base to close out the potential rally in the 8th?  I thought he learned his lesson when he got caught stealing home earlier in the season...I know we want aggressiveness, but unless they forget to hold you on or the pitcher goes from the wind-up for some reason, I can't see any defensible reason for that play.

Glad to see Joey Bats hit another one today--I needed something to break up all the scowling/griping he's doing over strike calls (most of which have looked like strikes to me).  Frustrating couple of games (barring a surprising 9th inning comeback).

Chuck - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#257595) #

Will/should there be any ramifications for Lawrie trying to steal third base to close out the potential rally in the 8th? 

I'm sure they'll speak to him in private but I don't expect to see Mike McCoy starting at 3B tomorrow as some form of punishment. With Lawrie, you live by the sword and die by the sword. His hyperkinetic act-first-think-later behaviour often works in his favour; sometimes it works against him. You hope he'll mature over time and learn to rein in his impulses when they are not appropriate. But this is fundamentally the way this cat is wired and you know that going in. This won't be his last error in judgement.

92-93 - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#257596) #
Lawrie's been pretty bad at the plate for about 2 weeks now. A day off tomorrow and a nice 2 day stretch might do him some good in multiple areas.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#257597) #
Another year, another low team OBP (I seem to say this every year). I worry that young players like Rasmus, Lawrie, Thames and others are getting the message (implicitly or explicitly) that the Jays are OK with them not getting on base. For whatever reason, once a player joins the Jays, their OBP seems to go all to hell. For example:

- In the minors, Lawrie had an OBP of .360 and posted a .373 OBP when he first came up in 2011. This year his OBP is down to .310.


- Before joining the Jays, Rasmus posted OBPs of .307, .361, and .332 with the Cardinals. Since then his OBP has been .201 (2011 - Toronto) and .305 (2012).


- In the minors, Thames had an OBP of .383. Career OBP in the majors? .306.


- Arencibia has a career .273 OBP with Toronto, which is, frankly, terrible.


What is going to happen to d'Arnaud, Gose, Hechavarria and others when they join the ML club - will they become hackers too? What happens when KJ and EE depart via free agency? Will 2013 be another OBP black hole for the Jays?


I've said this as well.  People talk about the starting pitching, the bullpen, or specific spots like LF or 1B or whatever, but the biggest flaw with the Jays continues to be low OBP.  Just too many outs.  So when you do hit dingers, you get the solo shots.

Might be time for a new hitting coach?  I haven't liked Murphy's "try to homer on every swing" philosophy ever.
Magpie - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#257598) #
With Lawrie, you live by the sword and die by the sword.

Agreed. But some of this stuff is just weird. Don't you learn not to make the final out at third base when you're... like ten? And why you don't? How can he not know this stuff?

On the other hand, about a week ago, Eric Thames made one of those baserunning "blunders" - except I like the play Thames made. He was on second with one out and Lawrie hit a grounder to short. Thames promptly lit out for third base, which is generally supposed to be a mistake, and the broadcasters will certainly always say so. But even if the other team makes the play at third, all you've lost is a base - instead of a runner on second with two out, it's a runner on first with two out. Which is, I agree, a real something to give up (although if it's Lawrie or Davis who hit the groundball, they've got a good chance of stealing the base right back anyway.) However, the payoff if the other team screws up the play - which Andrus did on this occasion - is quite nice. First and third with one out is significantly better than a man on second with out. I think it's worth trying if you've got a shot.
Chuck - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#257600) #

First and third with one out is significantly better than a man on second with out.

And in the case you cited, Thames had such a decent shot at third base that Andrus should have just made the easy play at first. But he's a young dude as well, also prone to errors in judgement. That same game, Andrus gave up two infield singles because he didn't think to charge the ball, underestimating the speeds of Lawrie and Encarnacion.

I do agree that Lawrie should know that you don't make the final out at third base. And I'm sure he does know this, but was a slave to his ADHD (or whatever) that compells him to act as he does. Reason too easily takes a back seat for people so compelled.

dan gordon - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#257601) #
Regarding the low team OBP, I read somewhere recently that one of the Jays players was quoted as saying that he was told by Jays management something like - "we don't worry about taking pitches here, we swing the bat".  I forget who it was, maybe Rasmus or Davis, but it certainly shows a disdain for taking walks.  I agree with the idea that if you get your pitch, give it a rip, but I think a lot of the Jays players have a very liberal view of "my pitch".  I think a modification in the team's overall approach is warranted.  No reason why they shouldn't be taking more walks.  Especially for a team that hits a fair number of home runs.  Walks turn those solos into 2 and 3 run shots, and by swinging at fewer bad pitches you reap a host of other benefits as well.
dan gordon - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#257603) #
I was very near there as well.  Went to HMV, World's Biggest Bookstore, and then when I was walking south on Yonge towards the Eaton Centre, I saw all kinds of lights flashing and quite a few emergency vehicles.  I went in to the Best Buy on the north side of the Eaton Centre for about 15 minutes, and when I left, they were closing the store, and not letting anybody in.  Another cop car went racing by me towards the Centre while i was walking back to my car.  Didn't know abut the shooting til I turned the car radio on.
Thomas - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#257606) #
The Blue Jays have claimed right-handed reliever Chris Schwinden off waivers from the Mets and assigned him to Las Vegas. Danny Farquhar has been designated for assignment.
Thomas - Saturday, June 02 2012 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#257607) #
Sorry, that should read right-handed starter. Schwinden's actually been used exclusively as a starter this year for Triple-A Buffalo and he made two starts in three appearances with the Mets this year.
McNulty - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 12:27 AM EDT (#257609) #
Very frustrating to see that even after a major re-tooling of the bullpen and replacing journeyman Nix, Patterson and Rivera with young players on the upswing of their career, we are only a game above .500 on June 3rd (same as last season). As young as the Blue Jays core is, and the influx of young players that are imminently coming, some changes in the coaching staff at the M.L. level are in order.

As has been stated earlier by others, the OBP of this team is a disgrace. The uber-aggressive approach at the plate has done wonders for few but has supremely hurt many more. It's an approach thing: The Jays are swinging at way too many pitches and not drawing enough walks. This is on the player, but is also on the hitting coach who dictates the approach philosophically. I agree with an earlier comment. What's going to happen when Gose arrives?

I don't think Bruce Walton escapes blame either. Under his watch we've seen Romero blossom (yet he seems to have hit a speedbump recently), but what else? Drabek and Cecil have both regressed. Henderson Alvarez is still a work in progress. The bullpen has been disappointing for an extended stretch of time. As a staff, they are just not throwing enough strikes. Is that on the player? Of course. In lieu of the extended period of this, I think a change in philosophy justified here as well. Give Mottola and Pete Walker a chance to work with the young players more.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#257610) #
Also, I don't think the Jays' attempt to get more "athletic" (which I support) should be used as cover for a crap OBP. It seems to me that players like Rasmus and Lawrie often get a free pass in this regard - for example, because they're "aggressive," "exciting," "ooze athleticism," etc. A .305 or .310 OBP is what it is. It blows, no matter how athletic you are or how graceful your swing looks in BP. Give me Wade Boggs (OPS+ 131) over Kelly Gruber (OPS+ 102) any day.
Gerry - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#257611) #
The bottom line is that too many Jays players, both hitters and pitchers, are not having good years to this point.

I was looking at Fangraphs WAR team stats and the Jays pitching is 13th in the AL. Only Brandon Morrow is in the top half of starter performance.

The offense is fifth in the league but there are three clear leaders (Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees) and the Jays are as close to ninth as they are to fourth.

The bottom line is that the Jays are doing well to be just three games out of a playoff spot given how they have played. If they can find some form they can still challenge for a playoff spot but they need to get better performance.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#257612) #
The jays walk rate is 8.0%, 7th in the AL. better than the rangers, red sox, etc. Nothing awful about their ability to take walks.

The jays poor OBP is entirely due to their very poor batting average. their .245avg is 11th in the AL. that is what is killing our offense.

this average comes along with a 13th ranked .271babip, so you hope that indicates that much of it is bad luck, but there's no guarantee there.

the jays poor batting average is really the only thibg wrong with their offense.....their walk rate is good, their power is good (.172iso -5th), and they're one of the better baserunning teams as well.

it's all about the batting average....there's not one jays regular posting an average above career norms, but there's a bunch posting well below - lind .186, bautista .224, rasmus .231, escobar .250.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#257613) #
Well that's the thing.  It's not walk rate itself necessarily, which is decent, that is the problem.  It's basically lack of hits.  And it seems too much of the team is up there swinging from the heels constantly.  I hate to sound like Gregg Zaun but it seems like an approach problem.  Anywhow, the Jays are quite low in team line drive rate, which helps explain the low babip.
Chuck - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#257614) #

this average comes along with a 13th ranked .271babip, so you hope that indicates that much of it is bad luck

Their .271 BABIP is 28th in baseball. They rank 30th in LD%. You have to figure the two are tightly intertwined. Are these low rates a function of luck? Approach? Skill level?

They are tied for 2nd in baseball in HR but are tied for 2nd last in doubles. They are 4th in HR/FB%. While this is a good thing, could this be helping to enforce the team's seemingly prevalent go-for-broke attitude at the plate? Note, however, that their K% rate is middle of the pack, which you'd expect to be higher given the low batting average and high HR rate.

It's hard to know what exactly to make of all this.

greenfrog - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#257618) #
Gerry, I agree that the Jays are in a decent position considering their performance to date, but they have a tough row to hoe. The Jays currently have four teams to pass in the division and their rivals have been dealing with significant injury issues. The competition will presumably get tougher as their opponents adds star players like Longoria, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gardner, et al.
Hodgie - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#257619) #
I find it interesting how easily a narrative takes hold of the imagination as soon as a team's fortunes change. For some reason it seems more comforting to a fan base to assign blame to coaches for allowing their team to swing from the heels, swing at everything, not walk etc. despite the numbers showing this just isn't factual. The Jays are in fact fairly well entrenched in the middle third of MLB teams in most of the plate discipline categories with the biggest area of improvement to be made in pitch recognition as they seem to be chasing too many pitches outside the zone. If that doesn't fall completely at the feet of the players then I don't know what would and yet, any blame cast their direction comes with a gigantic "BUT" attached. I don't need to tell married Bauxites how welcome the "BUT" is in any rationalization to one's spouse.

Sometimes players under-perform, which is largely the case here. Considering the underwhelming performance of many key players to-date, I am relieved that the Jays are still in contention and expect that the return to better health for the AL East rivals could very well be offset by simply a better performance on the field for the home nine by several key contributors.

92-93 - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#257620) #
The only players that the Jays could have reasonably expected to be significantly better are Yunel Escobar & Jose Bautista. Bautista's dip in production is cancelled out by Encarnacion's surge, so for me this is not a severely under-performing team; it's what they signed up for.
Magpie - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#257622) #
this is not a severely under-performing team; it's what they signed up for.

Agreed. I rather think what you say about Encarnacion and Bautista also applies somewhat to Morrow and Romero.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#257623) #
Overachievers 3 (4): Morrow, Hutchison, Encarnacion, (Mathis)

Achievers 7 (9): Alvarez, Drabek, Oliver, Janssen, Perez, Johnson, Arencibia, (Davis), (Vizquel)

Underachievers 12 (13): Romero, Cecil, Santos, Frasor, Cordero, Villanueva, Bautista, Escobar, Rasmus, Thames, Lind, Lawrie, (Francisco)

I think it's pretty clear that the players have collectively underperformed reasonable objective expectations so far.
Magpie - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#257624) #
collectively underperformed reasonable objective expectations

Well, it depends on your expectations. I assumed this team looked slightly better than a .500 team (unless a lot of rather surprising things happened.) But no more than that - 83 or 84 wins. So naturally 27-26 doesn't seem out of line to me. Oddly enough, I'm now (and only now!) beginning to think this team has a chance to be a fair bit better than I expected.
Kasi - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#257625) #
I like Hutchison. He unlike Alvarez can strike people out. And unlike Drabek he has some decent control. Glad to see him improving as he's stuck around at the major league level.
Thomas - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#257626) #
Underachievers 12 (13): Romero, Cecil, Santos, Frasor, Cordero, Villanueva, Bautista, Escobar, Rasmus, Thames, Lind, Lawrie, (Francisco)

I'm also not sure this is a fair list of underachievers. Many of us here and elsewhere had noted the big red flags around some of those names, such as Cecil, Cordero and Lind. And while Rasmus hasn't rebounded to his 2010 level, but he's hitting better than he did during his rookie season or his time in Toronto lsat year, for example. Also, if you include (and believe) the defensive numbers, it's hard to say Lawrie has underachieved with his total production.

uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#257628) #
You can use any set of objective expectations you'd like on the players - you can use 2yr splits, 3yr splits, or various projection systems. No matter which ones you use, you'll be forced to conclude that far more Jays have underachieved individually than overachieved.
robertdudek - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#257632) #
Why doesn't you compare them to ZiPS - the world-beating projection system by Dan Szymborski.
robertdudek - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#257633) #
Sorry about the grammar. "Why don't...."
Thomas - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#257634) #
If you look at ZIPS, for one, every member of the Jays starting rotation has a better ERA+ than ZIPS projected but Romero. None are within 10 points of their projection, if you want to set an arbitrary line for "meeting expectations."

That's four overachievers and one underachiever. Two, if you count Cecil. Yet, you have two of those four overachievers as simply "achievers."
Thomas - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#257635) #
I did that before seeing Robert's post....
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#257638) #
You can use any of them, but Zips works just find. We'll looks at OPS and ERA

Player --- ZIPS --- 2012

Bautista - .974 --- .799 (-.175)
Lawrie --- .831 --- .700 (-.131)
Enc'cion - .788 --- .926 (+.138)
Lind ----- .781 --- .586 (-.195)
Rasmus --- .776 --- .708 (-.068)
Johnson -- .757 --- .761 (+.004)
Escobar -- .744 --- .642 (-.102)
Thames --- .741 --- .652 (-.089)
JPA ------ .723 --- .706 (-.017)

Francisco - .744 -- .535 (-.209)
Davis ---- .664 --- .745 (+.081)
Vizquel -- .621 --- .530 (-.091)
Mathis --- .583 --- .774 (+.191)


Romero --- 3.72 --- 4.04 (-0.32)
Morrow --- 4.12 --- 3.28 (+0.84)
Alvarez -- 4.65 --- 3.75 (+0.90)
Cecil ---- 5.00 --- XXXX (XXXXX)
McGowan -- 5.00 --- XXXX (XXXXX)
Drabek --- 5.80 --- 4.65 (+1.15)
Hutchison - XXX --- 4.35 (XXXXX)

Santos --- 3.34 --- 9.00 (-5.66)
Oliver --- 3.33 --- 1.93 (+1.40)
Janssen -- 3.48 --- 3.32 (-0.16)
Frasor --- 3.88 --- 4.66 (-0.78)
Cordero -- 3.99 --- 5.82 (-1.83)
Villy --- 4.55* --- 4.70 (-0.15)
Perez --- 5.71* --- 3.42 (+2.29)

* - 8 of 47 of villy's projected games were as SP, 19 of 34 projected gms were as starter.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#257639) #
that asterisk should say "19 of Perez' 38 projected games were as SP".
neurolaw - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#257640) #
92-93 while I agree with your statement somewhat, I also disagree. Jose Bautista's production has dramatically fallen considering how amazing he was the last 2 seasons and although Edwin is performing very well to say he has replaced Jose Bautista's production is a fairly gross understatement. Bautista accumulated an 8 WAR last year and EE won't match that this year. To me it does not even out.
If Jose was producing like he was last season along with Escobar you have a completely different top of the line-up.

Its also difficult to say that the Lawrie you see is the Lawrie you get. He had an incredible 2011 followed by a not so great 2012 so far. He is projected to be an incredible offensive hitter so lets give him some rope. The rest of the players I think have accumulated enough PA to say that what you is what you get.

Starting pitching well that is also difficult to project. But in terms of the 2 pitchers who have the most experience Romero and Morrow well that is a mixed bag. Romero's peripherals are worse than last year and so his pitching is reflective of that. Morrow I believe has progressed this season. If Romero's peripherals fall in line with last year's that is a good 1-2 punch.

At the end of the day 3 very key players from the 2011 team - Bautista, Escobar and Romero have had poor seasons and that has impacted this team. Similarly if Hamilton, Kinsler, and say Holland for the Rangers were producing substantially lower than expected they would not be doing as well as they are.

Magpie - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#257641) #
If any of you remember C.J. Nitkowski, he's on the Twitter. And he just offered us this gem:

18th anniversary of me being taken 9th overall in the MLB draft. I often reminisce about how many people were fired over that decision.
Magpie - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#257642) #
Bautista, Escobar and Romero have had poor seasons

Well, Bautista is on track to hit 42 HRs and drive in 108 runs. And Romero is 6-1, 4.04. I can understand wanting them to be better than that, but "poor" seems to set the bar in a strange place.
Chuck - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#257643) #

Similarly if Hamilton, Kinsler, and say Holland for the Rangers were producing substantially lower than expected

Odd that you would cite Holland. His ERA is 5.11.

neurolaw - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#257644) #
Yes saw that after I posted! For some reason I thought he was doing well. But point still remains about Kinsler and Hamilton.

neurolaw - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#257645) #
Bautista's slash line over the last 2 years:
2010: .260/.378/.618
2011: .302/.447/.608
2012: .224/.329/.454

By any metric both traditional and advanced he is grossly under-performing and its not even close.
Dave Till - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#257646) #
I assumed this team looked slightly better than a .500 team (unless a lot of rather surprising things happened.) But no more than that - 83 or 84 wins. So naturally 27-26 doesn't seem out of line to me. Oddly enough, I'm now (and only now!) beginning to think this team has a chance to be a fair bit better than I expected.

The Jays are 3-9 in one-run games. Part of this is occasional bullpen failure, but some of it is plain bad luck. If you go by run differential, the Jays are right up there with the rest of the division.

By the way, all five AL East teams are significantly over .500 against non-East teams:
Tampa Bay 13-9
Baltimore 13-9
Yankees 19-13
Toronto 15-11
Boston 16-12

Woo woo, etc.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#257649) #
Yep, the division looks to be coming down to head to head AL East matchups.

Vs. ALE

TB: 17-12 (3-3 v. BAL, 4-2 v. NYY, 6-2 v. TOR, 4-5 v. BOS)
BAL: 15-14 (3-3 v. TB, 3-5 v. NYY, 5-4 v. TOR, 4-2 v. BOS)
NYY: 9-9 (2-4 v. TB, 5-3 v. BAL, 0-2 v. TOR, 2-0 v. BOS)
TOR: 11-14 (2-6 v TB, 4-5 v. BAL, 2-0 v. NYY, 3-3 v. BOS)
BOS: 10-13 (5-4 v. TV, 2-4 v. BAL, 0-2 v. NYY, 3-3 v. TOR)
China fan - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#257651) #
Encarnacion is listed as day-to-day with a bruised hand after being hit by Bard's last wild pitch. (That's a relief, since it looked a lot worse when it happened.) But the injury to Encarnacion, combined with the relatively light load for the bullpen today, makes it pretty certain that the Jays will demote the 8th relief pitcher and promote a positional player before their Tuesday game.

So who will it be? Farrell says it must be someone with "defensive versatility." Even without that comment, it's probably too early to promote Guerrero, who has just two hits in 10 plate appearances for Vegas. It can't be Francisco, who is reported to be still receiving treatment in Florida and has not resumed baseball activities. Gomes and Thames are ineligible to be promoted for a few more days. Hechavarria is not needed, since McCoy and Vizquel are still available to back up Escobar and Johnson.

So who does that leave? In my view, two options: Adam Lind, who is hitting .424 for Vegas, or Moises Sierra, who had two more hits today and has an OPS of .855 this year.

Of course it could be Gose, but he's younger than Sierra, less experienced, and (unlike Sierra) is not currently on the 40-man roster. (Neither is Lind, of course, but they could make room for him.)

If it's Lind, he would fit right into the DH slot while Encarnacion recovers, and would be available for 1B to spell off Cooper.

If it's Sierra, it allows Davis to slide back into his normal role as a back-up outfielder and pinch-runner. Otherwise the Jays only have McCoy as a 4th outfielder, and I don't think they are comfortable with that for more than a couple of games.
PeteMoss - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#257652) #
You'd have to think its an OFer... Davis at bat today against Bard was embarrassing. Sierra hadn't been doing much of anything until this week but he is hot.

I wouldn't be surprised if two guys are called up. Having both McCoy and Vizquel up is a waste of space (having one of them is a stretch).
92-93 - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#257654) #
Bautista, since May 4th, is hitting .274/.353/.594 in 119 PA. I'm not worried.
Thomas - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#257657) #
If you give weight to defensive metrics, you should balance Lawrie's offensive underperformance against the fact that he has been, by defensive WAR, the best defensive player in the AL by 39% over his nearest competitor. If accurate, that would make up for his bat not being as productive as projected so far.
China fan - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#257658) #
Encarnacion just tweeted: "Give me a couple of days...." Which means he sounds very doubtful for Tuesday's game. So the Jays need a DH for Tuesday, and probably a 4th outfielder too. Could it be the same guy (Sierra)? Or could it be Lind? Or both? Or even a Gose or McDade?

It seems that Yan Gomes is eligible to return to the majors by Wednesday, so maybe the Jays promote an OF/DH for the Tuesday game and then Gomes on Wednesday.
uglyone - Sunday, June 03 2012 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#257660) #
I expect them to send mccoy back down anywyas, so IMO we're gonna see 2 new callups regardless of whether EE is good to go or not.
92-93 - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#257667) #
It isn't ideal to replace your starting DH with Jeff Mathis, your backup C who historically hits like a pitcher, for 2 ABs in a tight divisional game. That's the kind of thing you can prevent when you don't have an 8 man bullpen with a guy (Jesse Chavez) who hasn't pitched in a week.
Landomar - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 01:41 AM EDT (#257669) #

I think Moises Sierra will be up next.  He's red hot, can play defense, and I don't think management is as worried about "babying" him as they are with guys they consider to be elite prospects.  Bautista could get a bit of a rest by DH'ing for a couple games, while Sierra does a Jesse Barfield impersonation in right field for us.  A good follow-up move would be to call up Gomes ASAP, especially with a trip to a NL park coming up soon.

Perhaps tomorrow we'll see Sierra up for Chavez or Coello.  Then on Wednesday (when he's eligible), Gomes could come up for McCoy.

 

 

China fan - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#257672) #
On radio today, Anthopoulos said he expects Encarnacion to be ready to play tomorrow. And he said Sierra is ahead of Guerrero for a call-up at the moment. Would be nice to get a glimpse of Sierra for a few games. His defence has always been strong, and now his hitting seems to be catching up. Add him to the long-term outfield mix, along with Gose, Snider and Thames. The Jays only need one of those four to pan out. (Two if they switch Bautista to 1B.)
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#257674) #
Thanks CF. I am always interested in what AA has to say.
China fan - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#257675) #
To clarify -- only the first 2 sentences of my post were a summary of AA's comments. The next 5 sentences were my own riffing on those comments.
DH - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#257684) #
Any interest in handing Jeff Francis a shot at a rotation spot? He was just released from his AAA contract by the Reds. His AAA stats are quite decent. Is he a step-up from the rookies at the back end of the rotation?
Gerry - Monday, June 04 2012 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#257759) #
The Las Vegas lineup tonight contains all the usual names. The Jays might be sticking with 8 pitchers until Gomes can come back up on Wednesday.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 05 2012 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#257947) #
Some tweets say that Russ Langer on the 51's broadcast said that Yan Gomes has been called up. Either Coello or Chavez will be on their way after the game.
Advance Scout: Red Sox, June 1-3 | 74 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.