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After doing this for the past four years it's becoming increasingly clear that these things fluctuate year to year. Some seasons are just harder to call than others. 2012 was one of those years - in fact, the most difficult in the RPC's history. Let's get to the results.

To revisit your predictions from approximately one year ago, look here. This year, 29 Bauxites entered the contest - the most of all-time! 2009 champion electric carrot was looking to sort of defend his title from three years prior, while 2010 champion Jdog and 2011 champion Jonny German have apparently decided to go out on top.

A review of methodology: the absolute deviation of your guesses is averaged for all 30 teams. So, if you scored 8.1, that means your guesses were off by 8.1 wins on average.

As mentioned, this was the most difficult year in the RPC's history. This year, Bauxites missed by 8.73 wins on average, compared to 8.43 in 2009, 7.11 in 2010, and 8.35 in 2011. Before the final results, a little analysis:

Congratulations to gabrielthursday for an incredible four bang-on guesses. Kudos are also in order for joeblow, bpoz, TamRa, and gabriel again for exactly pegging teams on which the Box as a whole wasn't particularly accurate.

AL East - This was the most difficult division, with the Box missing by 13 on average. The Red Sox and Orioles in particular won nowhere near what we expected them to, and were two of the three MLB teams where the Box missed by more than 20 games. We were also a little too homerific, picking the Jays to win 14 games more than they did. Let's not do that again this year, okay? (Unless we pick the Jays to win 119 games.)

AL Central - The Central was a little tough to call, with the White Sox winning a bunch more than expected and the Indians a bunch fewer, but we got the division winner right.

AL West - Oakland was the third of the aforementioned 20+ misses. Nobody saw the A's winning freaking 94 games and taking the division. In retrospect... HOW THE F&*#@& DID THAT HAPPEN??! I can't even name a single player on Oakland. Jose Canseco? Barry Zito? Philip Seymour Hoffman?

NL East - Also a fairly tough division to predict, with the Phillies and Marlins sucking more than we thought, and the Nationals going gangbusters. On the flip side, no fewer than five Bauxites accurately foresaw the Mets' mediocrity, despite Alex Obal's vocal pre-season bullishness.

NL Central - The easiest division for us Bauxites. The Reds' 97 wins were a bit of a surprise and one should never underestimate the Cubs' ability to lose, but we nearly nailed the Cards and Brewers and weren't far off on the Pirates and Astros.

NL West - Also a pretty solid division for Da Box - we missed NL West teams by 7 wins on average.

On to the results!

Congratulations to rpriske, 2012 champion of the Batter's Box Record Prediction Contest! rpriske's victory is particularly impressive considering he was the only Bauxite to defeat both CAIRO and PECOTA. Wow. Anders finished second, narrowly missing becoming the first roster member to win the contest (sorry 2011 champion Jonny German, ex-roster members don't count!) hypobole took the bronze with a strong showing.

On a personal note, I removed my predictions from the original thread so as not to influence other posters, and subsequently couldn't find them. I can only assume I went a perfect 30/30 for an average score of 0. Seriously though, damnit.

So, we've been doing this thing for four years, so I thought we should look back at the historical leaders. Below is a leader board of those who have participated in at least three of the four contests. To compensate for some years being more difficult than others, I basically found the average Z-score for each contestant.

electric carrot has basically destroyed the competition over the last four years, averaging more than a standard deviation better than the average. All hail our new vegetable overlords.
Record Prediction Contest 2012 Results | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
electric carrot - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#269440) #
Great job Rpriske -- congratulations!  And Dave Rutt that's a tonne of work to eek out those stats -- thank-you!  Always enjoy the contest and hope to do better this year than 2012.  (Friggin Astros can't even win 65 games!)
Jonny German - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#269443) #
" 2010 champion Jdog and 2011 champion Jonny German have apparently decided to go out on top"

Going out on top is for wimps. I'm guessing I missed the thread somehow.

And on that note - are we supposed to post our 2013 predictions here, or will there be another thread for that?
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#269444) #
It's fun to see the symmetry between the Box predictions and actual results for the Red Sox and Orioles. 
AWeb - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#269446) #

I will probably enter for the 5th year running, to keep my unerring streak of mediocre results alive. The "Everyone wins 81 games playoff apocalypse" scenario missed by an average of 10.13 wins last year, and the "everyone gets the same record as last year" missed by 8.63 (quick calcs, seems about right). It's good that the projection systems and the best of us beat that one, at least. 

Dave Rutt - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#269447) #
Glad to see I could goad you into coming back, Jonny ;) There will be a new thread in the coming days.
Jonny German - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#269448) #
Cool. 2 years ago there was also a thread for predicting Blue Jay home runs, can we do that again?
Dave Rutt - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#269449) #
I didn't run that one, but unless someone swings by here and claims it, sure, I'll set that up.
Nick Holmes - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#269450) #
Thanks! I was just thinking about this. It's great to see all the yearly results in one place, though I suspect my Value Over Replacement Pundit is safely negative.

The 81 win apocalypse seems strangely appealing, at least in the AL East... I'm wondering if we'll have a tie for one of the wild cards this year.
John Northey - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#269455) #
The AL East will be fun.  Checking back a bit for nutty division results...

2006 AL West: 93 wins led, 78 was dead last (Seattle)
1994 AL West: Everyone sub-500, "best" was Texas at 10 games under when the strike hit.
1991: AL West: Even though there were 7 teams not one was sub-500 (Angels at 81-81 was worst)
1982: AL East: 7 teams, worst was a tied Cleveland and Toronto at 78 wins (last sub-500 year for the Jays until 1994)
1981: AL East: 6 teams over 500, then the Jays way, way, way back (16 1/2 behind 2nd last)

2006: NL Central: Cards win with just 83 wins, the closest to a sub-500 since Texas 94.
2005: NL East: Everyone 500 or better, worst is Washington at 81-81
1994: NL: Expos #1...sigh...
1981: NL: 2 half seasons, Cincinnati and St Louis had the most wins overall and neither gets into the playoffs but the Expos do
1973: NL East: Mets win with a 82-79 record, the worst outside of Texas 94, 1/2 a game worse than the Cards of 2006

Interesting.  Lets hope the Jays go nuts and win 100 regular season games for the first time ever this year.

Anders - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#269473) #
We're number 2...!
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, March 26 2013 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#269479) #
Owch, bringing up the rear and its not particularly close. I'd have to have 3 straight "carrot" like seasons before I would be back into this competition.
rpriske - Wednesday, March 27 2013 @ 08:41 AM EDT (#269490) #

uh...what? I won?


Want to guess how much thought I put into those?




I should be buying more lottery tickets....

gabrielthursday - Wednesday, March 27 2013 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#269504) #
I am the best! I am the best!

I am... tied for fourth place?  The whole "an incredible four bang-on guesses" may have gone to my head.  Seriously though, this was fun and it's interesting to look back on last year's bad predictions.

Nick Holmes - Wednesday, March 27 2013 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#269538) #
The fun of the predictions is looking back and wondering, "What made me think that?"
Alex Obal - Thursday, March 28 2013 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#269568) #
I'd just like to take this opportunity to point out that only one entry was perceptive enough to foresee the Mets finishing ahead of the Blue Jays.
Mike Green - Thursday, March 28 2013 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#269569) #
It was the Amazin' Alex Obal.  The other AA...
Chuck - Thursday, March 28 2013 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#269571) #
I'd just like to take this opportunity to point out that only one entry was perceptive enough to foresee the Mets finishing ahead of the Blue Jays.

Were those some Mets not also supposed to finish ahead of a while pile of NL East teams?  
Record Prediction Contest 2012 Results | 17 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.