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The Jays have a logjam of infielders and need pitching so today they traded Aledmys Diaz to the Astros for AAA RHP Trent Thornton. Thornton is a riser in the Astros system who wasn't a top 30 prospect a year ago but who had a break out 2018.

Thornton had a 4.42 ERA in AAA with a 8.8 K rate and decent numbers. BA named Thornton as the pitcher with the best control in the PCL this year.

Scouting report from 2080 ball from the AFL: Three solid pitches, but lacks CH for rotation or true out pitch for leverage relief role. Fits as a low-leverage longman able to go multiple innings.

From MLB Pipeline: Thornton has added a couple ticks of velocity to his fastball in 2018, working at 93-95 mph and topping out at 97 with riding action. He has an interesting array of secondary pitches, including a curveball with some power and depth and an improved slider that he can turn into a true cutter. He needs to refine and trust his changeup more to find success against left-handers, however. Thornton has a funky delivery but it gives him deception and doesn't prevent him from filling the strike zone. With solid stuff and strike-throwing ability, he has the ingredients to become at least a No. 4 starter. But he often gets hit harder than he should, so his long-term role may be as a multi-inning reliever.

Infield depth traded for pitching. Expect more of this type of trade. Thornton does have to go on the 40 man roster so this trade doesn't help that issue.

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Mike Green - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:29 PM EST (#367729) #
Thumbs down. Evidently the club values many other infielders ahead of Diaz. I don't.
lexomatic - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:35 PM EST (#367730) #
Yeah I dunno about this trade. I guess they've decided  to play Gurriel/ Urena with  the inevitable Tulo injury
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:36 PM EST (#367731) #
Trade does not look good on paper. Diaz was probably the team’s best SS prior to this trade, with Tulo’s career questionable and Gurriel not looking good there defensively, and you can certainly argue he was the team’s best infielder period (of the existing options).

Trading Diaz is fine but the return seems pretty low. I’d like to know more about Thornton, though. Maybe he’s better than I’m thinking he is.
grjas - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:40 PM EST (#367732) #
I guess they’re gambling that Bichette will be their LT guy at SS. Agree the return looks a bit underwhelming though.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:40 PM EST (#367733) #

Trent Thornton only had four ugly Starts of 5 ER or more of the 22 he made.
On the other hand he had nine exceptional Starts of 0-1 R/ER.

I find it's hard to evaluate Players who pitch in the PCL.
It's possible he's a callup in 2019, but maybe only as a Reliever. He's cheap with lots of control.
I liked Aledmys Diaz, but maybe he wasn't a good enough defender to keep.
greenfrog - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 12:50 PM EST (#367734) #
Lately the front office has been failing to trade its premium trade chips when they are at or near peak value (Donaldson, Osuna). And they seem to be settling for very modest returns for their useful veterans (Happ, Pearce, Diaz), obtaining older prospects who are unlikely to contribute much to the next contending Jays team.

Time well tell how valuable Thornton is, but at first blush the Diaz trade seems to be akin to drafting for need as opposed to BPA. "We have too many infielders. We need pitching/innings. How about Diaz for Thornton?"

In the next couple of years, Diaz might have ended up being the only true shortstop on the team who can also hit adequately. I guess the front office is confident that Bichette can handle the position and that he'll take it over sometime in the next year or year and a half.

By the way, Diaz hit .290/.333/.523 (129 wRC+) in the second half of 2018. He has value.
jgadfly - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:05 PM EST (#367735) #
hmmhuh ?!. ... don't know how to put it any other way ... my thoughts originally were interesting 'hmm' numbers with good control and that he wouldn't need protection from Rule 5 but that's not the 'huh' case ... seems like a good deal for Houston ... perhaps another solid #4 starter/long reliever ... good numbers in AFL (1.15 whip 20k/4w/14h in 15.2 inn. 2.29 go/ao (still a lot of hits))
Glevin - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:14 PM EST (#367736) #
I wouldn't have been in a hurry to trade Diaz as he's under team control for about 4 more years and is a pretty good player but I think the return is actually OK. You weren't going to get a great prospect for a role player and Thornton looks likely to be a major leaguer of some sort. Jays seem to be trying to accumulate a lot of SP depth with some upside in AAA which is what they need to do and they only have so many pieces to move to get it.
pooks137 - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:28 PM EST (#367737) #

Time well tell how valuable Thornton is, but at first blush the Diaz trade seems to be akin to drafting for need as opposed to BPA. "We have too many infielders. We need pitching/innings. How about Diaz for Thornton?

You can't always trade for BPA or treat trades like the draft. You have way more factors/limitations to consider - the need for a willing trade partner, time constraints (if you wait too long, other teams move on and opportunities evaporate), service time considerations, 25-man roster spot considerations, 40-man roster spot considerations, salary considerations, term considerations, positional considerations, etc, etc

It's interesting that you mention trading a peak value. This might be peak value Diaz. His defense rates poorly, he is turning 29 next year at a position that skews young and athletic. His value is really dependent on his power. He has shown little propensity to take a walk.

If he has a year next year like Solarte did this year, he's a non-tender candidate whom isn't going to return a low 20s AAA starting pitcher anymore.

scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:29 PM EST (#367738) #
While drafting for need is bad, trading for need is essential.

There was a glut of infielders and many of them had no trade value. Travis is still a non-tender candidate.
Drury has had a terrible year. Urena has no track record. They like Gurriel too much to trade him.
And yes, Bichette will take over in a year, but I also think Charlie will have a go at driving some consistency into Urena.
I have mixed feelings because I liked Diaz but he was the obvious guy to move.

Glevin - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:36 PM EST (#367739) #
Keith Law likes the trade and says Thornton has extremely high spin rates on his pitches. Pooks also makes a good point. How many years more can Diaz play SS? If he's strictly a 3b he has almost no value.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:39 PM EST (#367740) #
Thornton was the Sros" 24th prospect according to mlb pipeline.
The BB/K numbers look fine. The HRs are kinda high but he was in the PCL, so he'll probably look better in Buffalo.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:40 PM EST (#367741) #
Thornton is 25, not “low 20s.”

The Jays “need” is not pitching per se. Or “shoring up” the roster so that the team never gets too bad during rebuilding years. Or building depth for depth’s sake. Rather, it’s young high-calibre talent that can fuel the construction of a championship roster over time.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:41 PM EST (#367742) #
You make the deals when the deal is available. Timing is everything.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:44 PM EST (#367743) #
I can definitely see the logic behind trading Diaz, but was expecting more in return given the type of season, and 2nd half in particular, he had. He seemed like someone the Jays could have either gotten more for now, or someone they should have traded a year from now when there was more certainty in the infield. Although given the type of 2017 he had, there was always a chance his trade value could have diminished a year from now.

Again at face value it looks like an underwhelming/disappointing return. Hopefully we might be looking at it differently down the road. The Jays have a lot of AAA SP depth now (assuming they don't lose anyone in the Rule 5) but the infield doesn't look good at the moment. A bounce back year from Travis, some development from Drury, and defensive improvement from Gurriel is a lot to ask for.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:47 PM EST (#367744) #
They bought Diaz when his value was low with Woodman and they probably traded him when is value was high.
This is better than 1 year of Sonny Gray. I assume the Yankees declined to offer a better pitching prospect.

greenfrog - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:48 PM EST (#367745) #
The Cards offered Flaherty and a second player for Donaldson last off-season. The Jays turned them down. Instead, they ended up with an older 40fv prospect coming off TJ surgery in Merryweather for JD. So yes, timing is everything.
greenfrog - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:50 PM EST (#367746) #
Keith Law said that Thornton is “interesting” due to high spin rates but that he has shown below-average control in the AFL.
greenfrog - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 01:51 PM EST (#367747) #
Below-average command, that is.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:07 PM EST (#367748) #
He's been a reliever in the AFL. 20Ks and 4 BBs in 15.2 innings. Control seems fine.
It seems like he might have a problem with lefties, but not every pitcher has a good change up.

Gerry - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:11 PM EST (#367749) #
Eric Longenhagen from fangraphs weighs in on Twitter.

Was 92-95, t96 in multi-inning Fall League stints, sitting 95-96 in single-inning outings. Elite curveball spin rate. A big league-ready arm of some kind, probably in a high-volume bullpen role.
85bluejay - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:12 PM EST (#367750) #
I liked that the jays cashed in on Diaz having a decent season ( should on Grichuk also) & the Jays very much need pitching depth - would have been happier if Thornton didn't require a 40 man spot.

It's interesting that the Jays have acquired a number of pitchers that have some appeal but need the development staff to coach them up & Marc Hulet in his fangraphs article on the Jays prospects expressing disappointment at the lack of progress of many of the Jays pitching prospects.
Gerry - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:25 PM EST (#367751) #
The steamer projections on Fangraphs have Diaz going from a 1.6 WAR in 2018 to 0.2 WAR in 2019. They have Thornton at zero WAR.
Gerry - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:27 PM EST (#367752) #
Double checking Fangraphs, I think the zero WAR for Thornton is meaningless, they only have him down to pitch four innings in the majors next year.
rpriske - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:31 PM EST (#367753) #
I am not opposed to trading Diaz, but I would have traded Travis or Urena ahead of him.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:35 PM EST (#367754) #
It's too late to trade for prospects in A ball and finish with 65 wins.
Guerrero is ready.

You might want young high-caliber position players, but you don't want young pitchers per se.
Pitchers can be dominant in their late 30s and you can never have too many starting pitchers.
Sroman and Sanchez have 2 years remaining and only Borucki has earned a spot so far.
They really need pitching. They need it bad.

When comes the time to trade Smoak and any other piece that has value, it will be better to take the best offer than to fill a need, but right now, they need to fill the the rosters.

scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:38 PM EST (#367755) #
Travis has no value. There's a lot of decent 2B available in free agency. Most are better than Travis.
Urena is not even in the Jays top 30 prospect list.

I would trade Pillar is there are any takers.

pooks137 - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:41 PM EST (#367756) #

Thornton is 25, not “low 20s.”

Sorry, when I referred to trading Diaz for a "low 20s AAA pitcher", I was referring to Thornton's Astros Top-30 rank, not his age

scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:43 PM EST (#367757) #
Grichuk has pretty much has the same value he had when the Jays acquired him.
He seems more likely to break out this year than to have a bad year.
And if he does, it will be a difficult decision to make. I don't like McKinney in right field.

bpoz - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:45 PM EST (#367758) #
Maybe Houston was not planning on protecting T Thornton. Maybe he is way back on the depth chart.

They are planning to contend next year so if an injury occurs in the IF Diaz is an experienced ML player.

The Jays get a potential starter or relief arm. I think SRF if healthy and pitching ok will get at least 20 ML starts in 2019. Thornton is in the mix for a SP role depending on need. He has 3 good pitches and could improve his 4th, CH. It could work well in the pen.
uglyone - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:46 PM EST (#367759) #
more evidence that they really don't care about defense. vladdy-gurriel should be an adventure of a left side of the infield next year.

new guy is probably not a starter, but could be a nice reliever. they love these kinds of guys more than anything else, looks like.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:52 PM EST (#367760) #
He was in the pen in the Fall League because Houston's 2nd and 8th  prospects were in the rotation.
He didn't fare very well as a multi-inning reliever, so I don't know that he's an automatic fit there.

scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:54 PM EST (#367761) #
Houston just lost Marwan Gonzales who can play anywhere. Diaz can cover the infield.
SK in NJ - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:58 PM EST (#367762) #
With how fungible Shapiro and Atkins consider relievers to be, I don't think they plan on using him as a strict RP unless he absolutely fails as a SP. A multi inning reliever (ex. pitching right after an opener) might be an option they are looking at, but that could be the case for a number of pitchers the Jays have right now.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 02:59 PM EST (#367763) #
Charlie was in charge of the Tampa infield shift, the team that shifted the most after the Astros.
Right use of shift can compensate for poor infielder range. That's how I see it anyway.
With a team full of offensive infielders, they might move away from ground ball pitchers in favors of more strike outs.

I'm still expecting Gurriel to be the regular 2B.

dan gordon - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 03:28 PM EST (#367764) #
Not a fan of this trade. I think the Jays just traded their best middle infielder for a guy who is most likely to be a middle reliever. Diaz has 25 HR power. Gurriel looks like an outfielder to me, Drury is unlikely to be a decent hitter in the big leagues based on his career road numbers, Travis may not be the player he was before all the injuries, Solarte is almost certain to be non-tendered and Tulo is likely done as an effective big league SS. They must be pretty confident Bichette sticks at SS when he gets here, but until then, it's going to be a bit of a mess.

Thornton may be a bit better than some are thinking. He was rushed through the Astros farm system, going from short season ball in 2015 to AAA in 2017. The high spin rate sounds promising. He only just turned 25 a couple of months ago - this was really his age 24 season - so there may be a fair bit of development to come. If so, the trade might work out OK. His minor league splits are interesting. In both 2017 and 2018 he was getting absolutely crushed at home, and pitching very well on the road, which seems bizarre to me. The stats I have from 2008 to 2013 show Fresno as a great pitchers' park, suppressing runs by almost 10% in a league where there are many tremendous hitters' parks, yet Thornton's home ERA was almost 3 times his road ERA in 2018. Has something happened to the Fresno ballpark? Anybody have any newer data about how hitter friendly it is now?
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 04:28 PM EST (#367765) #
To me Thornton looks very comparable to Jordan Romano. They both feature strong fastballs with an above average breaking ball with no real change-up. The key stats I want to bring up are the left/right splits:


Romano 0.93
Thornton 0.99


Romano 1.44
Thornton 1.46

Both of those guys look like relievers to me in the Joe Biagini circa 2016 mold.
Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 04:29 PM EST (#367766) #
Trent Thornton's extremely fast promotion record for someone drafted in the 5th Round of 2015 got him all the way to AAA in 2017, less than two years.

In his first trip to AAA he had 7 excellent Starts (0-1 ER), 6 very good Starts (2 ER), 3 good Starts (3-4 ER) and 5 bad Starts (7 or more ER).
That's a #1/#2 Starter. Yet in his second very short stint in AA he pitched not that well.

In his 2nd stint in AAA he had 10 excellent Starts (0-1 ER), 2 very good Starts (2 ER), 8 good Starts, (3-4 ER) and 4 Bad starts (5 or more ER).
That's still a #1/#2 Starter.

He might have been pushed hard from the start, but he was successful. His few bad games have been/were really bad. It's extremely possible he's a Starter callup in 2019.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 04:51 PM EST (#367767) #
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told the Houston Chronicle that Thornton had been on the radar for a lot of teams. He's a valuable guy that can probably pitch in a big-league rotation next year.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 05:13 PM EST (#367768) #
Romano is a good comp. Pipeline had Thornton at 24 in the Astros system. Pannone is at 27 in the Jays system and Romano is at 28.
pooks137 - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 05:23 PM EST (#367769) #

more evidence that they really don't care about defense. vladdy-gurriel should be an adventure of a left side of the infield next year.

I liked Diaz, but he was definitely expendable. The Jays have enough all power, no OBP mould guys.

Diaz' biggest assets were his 4 years of cheap control, his power and his ability to fake it at SS. But if he loses any more OBP or loses a step on defense, he's pretty much unplayable. And he's turning 29 next Aug so his four years of control are less valuable since he's likely peaked in terms of skill and his later older and expensive years are less likely to be valuable

It's going to be rough next year, but the Jays aren't competing and they don't really need a 1-2 WAR SS for next year.

I wonder if this means they are planning on giving Urena a look. Not that he's earned it, but he's running out of options on a crowded 40-man and a crowded IF on the 25-man. I wonder if Urena might break camp with the team for a final look (although I also won't be surprised if he doesn't survive the offseason and gets waived for his spot

BlueJayWay - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 06:40 PM EST (#367770) #
At first blush this seems like a slightly low return. Diaz had a nice bounceback year (especially in the second half), and has I think four years of control left. But as pooks said above, he's approaching 30 playing a position where that's already getting past prime. Defensive metrics have never liked him, and he's always had low OBP. If he loses some of that power, he becomes pretty marginal. It's very possible that 2018 is the best year Diaz would have as a Jay, so they might be selling high here. I just wish they got someone who profiles as more than a reliever.
Nigel - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 06:42 PM EST (#367771) #
In a vacuum, I’m somewhere between meh and a modest thumbs down on the deal. Thornton looks more like a reliever to me. My real fear is that once again the front office does not seem to grasp that the number of remaining in house options who can actually play SS in 2019 is something approaching zero. They do have lots of time to shuffle the pieces yet.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 07:09 PM EST (#367772) #
I'm ok with the deal. The Jay's rid themselves of someone whose value wasn't going to increase. Houston likely didn't have room to protect Thornton but he's a good arm. For me, he's a reliever. Delivery with no one on has high leg kick and flailing arms so command will never be great....nice FB/CB but no changeup. He also changes his arm slot slightly when he throws the bender so a minor adjustment might help there... big league ready as a reliever, probably.
Vulg - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 07:13 PM EST (#367773) #
I understand trading strength-for-need, but not if you're giving up a significant gap in value in the process.

This was Diaz 3rd full year in the majors. He returned 3.5 WAR his first, 1.4 last year, is projected to produce slightly more than that in 2019 and was the team's best defensive option at SS. Houston media and fan reaction is very positive about the prospect of having found their new Marwin for cheap.

Thornton is going to have to soundly beat the trio of AAAA-projected scouting reports I've read to balance this out. Hopefully he delivers on the promise that the Jays have gambled on, because based on what they're expected to be, it doesn't look good right now.
scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 07:14 PM EST (#367774) #
Because Bichette will be getting all the SS AB in Buffalo, the clock is ticking on Urena.
2019 should be the year to figure out if Urena has a future with the team or enough value to trade for something else.
Atkins has said that he'd like to put Gurriel at one spot so he can focus. That should be 2B for now.

Romano and Thornton have about the same age.
The big difference is that Romano has made 1 AAA start and Thornton has made 42.

scottt - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 07:38 PM EST (#367775) #
No change up, but a good slider. Will have to pitch around/challenge lefties and will probably struggle against some lineups. Sanchez was good when he had no change up and relied on the curve, so I'm really not sure that it's essential. Kinda worried about the blisters though.
Nigel - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 08:41 PM EST (#367776) #
I am bemused by the idea of Gurriel as a middle infielder. I have no idea where it gained traction. I can’t remember reading many if any scouting reports that commented favourably on his ability to stay in the middle infield. He didn’t pass the eye test there last year. Where did this come from? I have zero problem with the Jays trying it next year - the team will be poor. But Gurriel as a SS or 2B seems unlikely to me.
Gerry - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 09:04 PM EST (#367777) #
The Jays are not going to win next year so they can use the year to give Gurriel more time at short, or to see what Urena can do. And so on.
John Northey - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 09:36 PM EST (#367778) #
The general rule is to keep a player at the position that pushes their skills the hardest as long as possible. If he can produce there then fantastic, if not then you eventually say 'screw it' and move him down the defensive spectrum. The longer they last at the tougher position the longer their career as a general rule.

Once you are down to 1B/DH your days are numbered unless your production is high at all times.

Now, Gurriel at SS didn't look great by any means. Last year he was rated at -18.0 UZR/150, so costing the team 18 runs a year at SS or 1.8 wins. At 2B he was a -1.4/150 or costing less than 2 runs a year there. Now, the question is was that due to limited time due to injuries/missed time coming from Cuba or will he never be good at SS? My gut is to put him at 2B and say 'that is good'. But we have Tulo trying for a last gasp, and Urena who was a -15.8 in 2017 vs -2.8 last year suggesting a drastic improvement can happen but is it real? For 2019 I'd put Tulo as #1, Urena as #2 right now and have Gurriel at 2B and Travis in AAA. Drury at 3B until Vlad is ready (ie: has 2 weeks in minors to add a year of control). FYI: Diaz was a -3.2 at SS, -12.1 his first season.
ayjackson - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 09:37 PM EST (#367779) #
I'm trying really hard to have an opinion here.

It does feel light on return, but I doubt it's a situation where they didn't gauge the market on Diaz. This is likely what Diaz was worth. I guess you could hope he's worth more at July. Meh. Next?

Richard S.S. - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 10:50 PM EST (#367780) #
There is a huge value in Players with options, the more the merrier. Being able to refresh the Bullpen each week could be a huge asset. Being able to pitch 2-4 innings regularly could be another huge asset.
ayjackson - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 10:59 PM EST (#367781) #
So you're saying his value is being buried in Buffalo until he's needed for an appearance or two when the bullpen is tired?

Seems unlikely.

John Northey - Saturday, November 17 2018 @ 11:31 PM EST (#367782) #
Remember, last year Diaz only got Woodman, a guy who was released mid-season. This year he got a decent AAA pitcher who had 8.8 K/9 vs 2.2 BB/9 last season - very nice numbers. He was in the PCL so his 0.9 HR/9 rate is excellent as is his 8.5 H/9 rate. In the Fall league his K/9 jumped to 11.5 which is a good sign while his BB/9 was pretty much the same (2.3). Certainly 100 times better than J.B. Woodman (an outfielder with a 690 OPS last year)
dan gordon - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 01:07 AM EST (#367783) #
Diaz has produced a career OPS of just under .800 in his 3 years in the big leagues, including 1 year when he was playing through an injury and OPS'd only .682. He only just turned 28 (he's certainly not "approaching 30"), and has 4 more years of control left. In his 2 healthy seasons, he produced 4.9 WAR in only about 900 AB's, or the equivalent of a season and a half, which is a rate of about 3.2 WAR per full season. A guy like that is worth a lot more than a middling pitching prospect who likely profiles as a middle reliever. Also, what they gave up to get him is irrelevant in determining what they should accept for him now. You don't improve your team by trading a dollar for 50 cents.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 01:21 AM EST (#367784) #
Baring trades: Three Starters, Marcus Stroman, Ryan Borucki and Aaron Sanchez are locks in the Rotation.
The next tier is, Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, Sam Gaviglio and David Paulino are MLB-Capable.
The next tier is Trent Thornton, Jon Harris and maybe Julian Merryweather are MLB-Ready.

There might be a need for one or more of these Pitchers in the Bullpen. But either way, that 13 Starters deep. Whether or not the Jays upgrade here, there's enough in-House to do the Job. Just not enough to really make a difference.

Baring Trades: Three Relievers, Ken Giles, Tim Mayza and Ryan Tepera are locks in the Bullpen.
The next tier is, Danny Barnes, Joe Biagini and Mark Leiter Jr. are MLB-Capable.
The next tier is Justin Shafer, Corey Copping, Jackson McClelland, Zack Jackson are MLB-Ready.

The Jays need to add at least three Relievers to the Bullpen that are better than Ryan Tepera. Lots of arms are available in-house, more than just 10 as well as many in free Agency. Do the Jays be aggressive or do they end up waiting too long for best value?
Glevin - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 05:09 AM EST (#367785) #
"Diaz has produced a career OPS of just under .800 in his 3 years in the big leagues, including 1 year when he was playing through an injury and OPS'd only .682. He only just turned 28 (he's certainly not "approaching 30"), and has 4 more years of control left. In his 2 healthy seasons, he produced 4.9 WAR in only about 900 AB's, or the equivalent of a season and a half, which is a rate of about 3.2 WAR per full season. A guy like that is worth a lot more than a middling pitching prospect who likely profiles as a middle reliever. Also, what they gave up to get him is irrelevant in determining what they should accept for him now. You don't improve your team by trading a dollar for 50 cents."

You're right that what they gave up to get Diaz is irrelevant but you are massively mistaking Diaz's value. He is a second division regular at SS or a utility guy. There just isn't a lot of value in that. And while the Jays would have four more years of control, they are not as valuable as most players because Diaz is making $2.5M which is a lot in pre-arbitration salary. I don't know which way his career will go. Maybe he develops more and becomes a good 3Bman and an everyday player. He has enough talent to make that happen even though it's unlikely. However, it's quite possible that he is a 95-110 WRC+ 3Bman-only which doesn't have very much value. Fans seem to consistently overrate what teams can get back for players. Teams do their due diligence and usually know the market for players pretty well and the market for Diaz was a decent pitching prospect. What did people expect? A mid-rotation starter? A stud prospect?
dan gordon - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 06:26 AM EST (#367786) #
"you are massively mistaking Diaz's value"

How? I simply pointed out the numbers like WAR, and OPS. I think the person who is mistaking his value is you. I don't see the evidence that he's a "2nd division or utility guy". Is he Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor? No, but how many are? Have a look at Bogaerts. In the last 3 years, his average WAR per season is about 3.25, basically identical to what Diaz has produced per full season in his 2 healthy seasons. Bogaerts' career OPS is slightly below that of Diaz, even including Diaz' injury hampered 2017, and his defensive numbers B-Ref are comparable.
scottt - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 08:46 AM EST (#367787) #
Career OPS can be very misleading. Diaz is 28. Bogaerts is 26. Bogaerts' best year were at 22 and 23.
He was worth 3.8 WAR this year and should be a bit worse  next year.
Diaz was good for 1.4 WAR this year and might do a bit better next year if he doesn't miss any time.
Mike Green - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 09:29 AM EST (#367788) #
If he's strictly a 3b he has almost no value.

I disagree with this completely.  Diaz appeared to me (and the limited statistics bear this out) to be an above average defensive third baseman and a below average defensive shortstop.  As a guy with a career 108 wRC+ at age 28, there is no reason that he cannot be an average player at third base for another 3 years or so.  He has power, above-average speed and doesn't strike out much.  It would be nice if he would take a walk, and maybe he'll learn to do more of that.  Even if he doesn't, he has value. Which is why the Astros acquired him.

The Blue Jays have likely pencilled in Guerrero Jr. as their third baseman for the next 3 years or so, until Kevin Smith or (more likely) Groshans is ready to take over.  With Guerrero Jr.'s knee injury, I think that is a significant mistake. Guerrero Jr. is their single most valuable asset and making the most of his value ought to be their first priority.

The deal can work out well for the Blue Jays.  Maybe Guerrero Jr. is healthy and serviceable at third base for a few years, and Thornton develops a pitch to get out LH hitters regularly or thrives in the Duane Ward role. 

greenfrog - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:01 AM EST (#367789) #
With the acquisition of pitchers like Perez and Thornton and position players like Grichuk and Teoscar (and Spanberger, Wall, Taylor, et al.) you can see what the Jays are trying to do. They want to amass a deep pool of talent that could end up producing a few valuable players (controllable and at low cost). They know that many of these players won’t pan out, but they’re trying to improve their odds by stacking the system with players who might actually do something if they can continue to develop. It’s just unfortunate that they had to sell low on a few players, netting lower-percentage talent than they otherwise would have obtained.

Diaz provides some solid depth for Houston behind Bregman and Correa. It takes the pressure off those two to play 150-160 games a year (which Correa was unable to do last year in any event).
scottt - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:03 AM EST (#367790) #
Playing 3rd base does not ruin knees. Both Boston and NYY have been fielding young players with poor defensive skills at 3d base.
hypobole - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:19 AM EST (#367791) #
How much is Diaz going to play next year with Correa at SS and Bregman at 3B? He'll be the utility guy, but exceeding this season's PA's or WAR won't be slam dunk some are making it out to be.
greenfrog - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:23 AM EST (#367792) #
If Diaz can play second base, he could also spell Altuve (who is coming off knee surgery) at times.
bpoz - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:44 AM EST (#367793) #
In 1983 the Jays won 89 games. That was the 1st time winning in the 80s. Lots of excitement for me. Finally winning and watching Joey and the rest of the pen. Not dull at all.

So for me 1983 was the opening of our 1st and longest window of contention. We should have our next window opening soon. Atkins is suggesting that the 2021 team will be better than the 2019 and 2020 teams. He has not provided details because he does not know what they are.

If there were 2 WCs at the time of our 1st window, we would have made the playoffs more often. We could have lucked into more than 2 WS championships as well.

I am ok with a good pen rather than a weak or tired pen. A bad pen would bring back old memories. Oakland used the strategy of building a great pen after the July 31,2018 trade deadline. It improved their odds of winning the WC game against NYY.

85bluejay - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:49 AM EST (#367794) #
like it or not, Brandon Drury is ticketed for 3B until Vlad arrives, so even if Diaz had stayed he would be a backup - I'm more optimistic on Drury than most and I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps Vlad in AAA longer than expected or forces the Jays to move Vlad to 1B earlier than expected - As I mentioned last week I don't like any of the internal candidates for SS (assuming Tulo on DL) & hope the opening day SS is Glavis/Iglesias on a 1 year deal.

whiterasta80 - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 11:36 AM EST (#367795) #
I'd be very happy to run galvis out there until bo is ready. Love his defense and attitude.
John Northey - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 12:31 PM EST (#367796) #
Actually, what was given up to get Diaz is very relevant. It says volumes that a young SS who was a year away from a 3.5 WAR rookie performance, was dumped for a minor leaguer who was so poor that he was released mid-season. A year before the Jays got Diaz I'd have said 'no chance they are getting him for less than 2 or 3 top prospects', now a year after getting him for, basically, nothing we are complaining he was worth more than a decent pitching prospect who is MLB ready. Odds are there are issues we aren't aware of for a guy to drop so far so fast.

Diaz is 28 now and he is in his prime with years of control left. Yet he has been traded twice in a year. His 2nd most similar through age 27 is Devon Travis. I'd worry about a complete collapse in value for him so getting something is better than nothing. He could suddenly develop into a star but at this point I'd think a flop is higher odds than a 'wow'.
SK in NJ - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 12:39 PM EST (#367797) #
I think it’s more likely that Drury switches to 2B when Vlad comes up. I’ve been on the “move Vlad to 1B now” bandwagon for a while so would actually prefer if Drury busts out and forces a change of position for Vlad but the team has invested a lot of time in playing him at third (maybe to appease him?), so I don’t see them cutting bait on it so soon unless they are forced to for some reason (injury concerns, Vlad wanting to move, etc).
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 03:55 PM EST (#367798) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. plays 3B until he can't any more and it will be his decision, no one else's. He's decent/average-ish defensively at 3B and all indications are he's working hard to get better.
dan gordon - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 04:46 PM EST (#367799) #
"Actually, what was given up to get Diaz is very relevant"

Well, actually it isn't - the discussion is about the merits of the trade of Diaz for Thornton, and what the Jays gave up for Diaz has no bearing whatsoever on whether the Houston trade is a good one. Was getting Diaz a great trade, yes absolutely, unfortunately the Jays have undone a lot of that with this new trade. The fact that you gave up nothing for Diaz doesn't mean it's OK to give him up for a poor return.

As for Diaz suddenly flopping, there is no evidence that is about to happen. Nor is there evidence he's going to develop into a star, but he doesn't need to in order to be a good player. He just needs to keep doing what he was doing in his 2 healthy seasons. Unfortunately for him, it looks like he's gone to a team that is also not going to give him full playing time, and he won't have the chance to have that 600 AB, .780 OPS seasons that would better show his demonstrated ability in partial seasons.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 04:48 PM EST (#367800) #
After moving Diaz I really think we will see more Gurriel at SS next year, and we can all agree he wasn't very great there last season. I tried to find a previous precedent for optimism and the two best hopes I could see where as follows:

Alexi Ramirez:
2008: SS (52 Inn) -32.9 UZR/150 / 2B (1017.1 Inn) -8.7 UZR/150
Career: SS (10,684 Inn) 2.6 UZR/150

Jean Segura:
2012: SS (389 Inn) -25.8 UZR/150
Career: SS (6598 Inn) -2.1 UZR/150

Is it likely he gets better? Probably not, but it's possible.
Chuck - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 04:54 PM EST (#367801) #
He's decent/average-ish defensively at 3B

How do you know?

Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 05:34 PM EST (#367802) #
You don't listen to every sound bite available or every applicable Podcast?
bpoz - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 07:47 PM EST (#367803) #
If you are so dedicated Richard SS I am impressed. Your ideas on the pen interest me. Since baseball has changed so much I feel the pen is much more important.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 08:33 PM EST (#367804) #
I'm retired, partially paralyzed, unable to walk, can't sleep more than 5 hours a day but otherwise in good-great shape. It's not as if I don't have the time or the interest. I might see things differently than others.
ayjackson - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 09:15 PM EST (#367805) #
The Jays do seem to be all-in with Vlad and Bo at 3B and SS, respectively. That seems to suggest an offense first philosophy. Defensively, Diaz looked like the best option at 3B. Tulo might be next best.
Lylemcr - Sunday, November 18 2018 @ 10:24 PM EST (#367806) #
You can never have too much pitching.

Diaz is alright, but he is not something you can't pick up as a free agent. I would rather see what the young guys can do.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 07:24 AM EST (#367807) #
Time is running out.
They still have to non-tender Solarte and Leiter.
Move a catcher and either Pillar or Pompey.
Maybe outright Barnes.

Anything else?

Mike Green - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 08:49 AM EST (#367808) #
Time is running out.
They still have to non-tender Solarte and Leiter.
Move a catcher and either Pillar or Pompey.
Maybe outright Barnes.

Not haiku, but good metre there. 
bpoz - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 09:46 AM EST (#367809) #
What is the difference to the Jays specifically for non tendering vs releasing a player. Solarte for example.

Assuming that the Jays don't want him back because their plans have changed. As long as neither is done we have the right to trade him. If non tendered, is he still on the 40 man roster?

Lastly (for now), when is the non tender deadline?
Mike Green - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 10:14 AM EST (#367810) #
The Santa Claus parade yesterday put me in mind of Christmas, and (naturally) the Christmas birthday baseball club.  The club includes Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson (of course it would), Nellie Fox and Pud Galvin but also Ned Garver.  I knew next to nothing about him, but this SABR bio brought me up to speed including an early bit on labour issues.

Q: How does a pitcher like Garver with 2400 innings under his belt and a W/L record of 129-157 end up with 43 WAR? A: Pitch for lousy clubs with poor defences, and hit well. 
PeterG - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 11:05 AM EST (#367811) #

Longenhagen seems to have a better feeling for the Jays end of the trade than most on here.
Mike Green - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 11:53 AM EST (#367812) #
Thanks for the Longerhagen link.  He likes Thornton more than most.  That's fair.  It is interesting that he was used mostly with 7/8 days rest between starts and that his mechanics are funky.  I could easily imagine a role for him as the second guy behind an opener.  I wonder if the Jays are planning to import Tampa's pitching usage.  They do have personnel that might make it a good idea. 
bpoz - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 12:27 PM EST (#367813) #
Tomorrow Nov 20 is the deadline top set the 40 man roster.

From our own system I will guess 3 players will be added. P Murphy and H Perez have great arms. Great arm for Y Diaz as well but my 4th choice to add. 3rd choice would be Max Pentecost.
I think P Murphy can succeed in a ML pen next year but not H Perez or Y Diaz. I don't expect any of them to dominate AA next year, just like SRF and C Greene did not their 1st time, in 2017.

M Pentecost had a great Aug 2018 and was named player of the month for the Eastern league. He probably does not hurt a ML team next year.

I see T Thornton as already on the 40 man. Just a formality adding him.
PeterG - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 12:29 PM EST (#367814) #
I feel that the Jays would only use openers if they felt they were short on starters. Just because Montoyo comes from Tampa, does not mean he will implement openers. All options are open though I imagine.
bpoz - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 12:39 PM EST (#367815) #
Catcher K Suzuki signs 2 year deal with the Nationals. $4 and $6 mil/yr.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 02:12 PM EST (#367816) #
Besides protecting Rule 5 Draft potentials, the Jays need a space for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and 1 or 2 New Starters , 2 or 3 New Relievers. That’s 5 spots needed.
Richard S.S. - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 02:33 PM EST (#367817) #
In addition, I’d add RHP Trent Thornton AAA, LHP Travis Bergen AA/AAA, OF Forrest Wall AA/AAA, RHP Patrick Murphy AA/AAA.
I’d like to also add RHP Jordan Romano AAA, RHP Corey Copping AAA and RHP Jacob Waguespack AAA.
There are 12 more Players unprotected. With just the 7 Rule 5 players I mentioned, the Jays need to make a lot more opening on the 40-man.
PeterG - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 02:57 PM EST (#367818) #
I don't feel there is any chance Penetecost would be added. I can't see any team taking him. The only certainties imo are Murphy and Perez. After that, who knows? We will find out soon.
Gerry - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 03:03 PM EST (#367819) #
Jays emergency starter Mike Hauschild has signed with the Indians.
lexomatic - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 03:06 PM EST (#367820) #
If pentecosts defense is okay then someone will take him, hes just run out of time with the Jays. There's better younger prospects ahead of him and much younger players behind him. Hes a low priority player to protect with the Jays having so.mich depth atm.
Gerry - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 03:48 PM EST (#367821) #
Griffin Conine suspended 50 games for Ritalinic Acid.
dan gordon - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 04:13 PM EST (#367822) #
Good to hear a more positive view on Thornton. Maybe he's better than I'm giving him credit for based on his numbers. Maybe.

Pentecost won't be protected. He'll be 26 before the start of next season, has a lengthy injury history, isn't exactly a great defensive catcher, and hasn't hit all that well until the last few weeks of 2018. Highly unlikely he'll get picked and stick with a team for the full season. How many guys who put up a .684 OPS in AA at age 25 went on to have good mlb careers? I suppose you could squint really hard and say that with all of the missed time due to injuries he was rusty and things just started to kick in for him late in the year as he shook the rust off, but that's a big long shot.

Obviously Thornton will be protected. I expect Murphy, Perez, and Bergen to be protected. There are a few others that the team needs to make a call on, depending on whether they think they might get picked or not, guys like Wall, Copping, Romano, McClelland, Waguespack, Harris. I think these guys are unlikely to be picked and stick, but there is certainly room to drop a few guys currently on the 40-man and add players if the team fears losing one or more of that group. I'd hate to lose McClelland, for instance, but he's a ways away from being a big leaguer. The 40-man has guys like Leiter, Smith, and Davis who are very droppable, Solarte is almost certain to be dropped, and the team seems to have given up on Pompey, so he will probably be dropped as well, although I still think he has a good chance at a big league career. I'd be fine with dropping Urena as well, if need be, as he looks like he's not going to hit, having been pretty bad with the bat since moving up from advanced A ball in mid-2016. Of course, he's still just 22, so maybe he figures a few things out. The trade of Diaz probably means he sticks around and gets some time with the Jays in 2019. Anyway, with 4 open spots and many droppable guys, I don't think there is a serious problem.
dan gordon - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 04:23 PM EST (#367823) #
Ritalinic acid is a metabolite of Ritalin, which has effects such as increasing or maintaining alertness, combating fatigue and improving attention. If Conine was using it, you have to wonder for how long. Are his college numbers suspect?
PeterG - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 04:27 PM EST (#367824) #
Urena looked good in September. Not going by numbers as September numbers are suspect. He just looked like a different( and better) player to me.
John Northey - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 04:56 PM EST (#367825) #
Pentecost I see as a high risk player to put out there for Rule 5. His offense wasn't 'wow' at 253/283/401 but his 40% CS rate vs the other catchers on the team being at 30% and 29% suggests he has a strong arm and anything I've read says he is solid back there in all ways. From August 1st to the end he seemed to figure it out - hitting 352/359/602 (OK, he won't take a walk, 1 BB vs 21 K in 92 PAs). Strong defense, potentially good offense (power at least) makes him an easy guy for a catching weak team to acquire and keep up. AA to majors isn't crazy.

In the end it all depends on who else the Jays want to protect and how they rate the catchers ahead of him, Danny Jansen, Reese McGuire being the big 2 with others like Alberto Mineo (brief look in AAA after spending most of year in A+) in eyeshot. Pentecost would be nice in AAA as insurance, splitting time with whoever isn't in the majors of Maile/Jansen/McGuire, however that spot can be covered with a AAAA catcher who is 30+. Remember, Luke Maile won't be a free agent until after the 2022 season too. So 3 young, healthy, decent defensive catchers ahead of him. Smart move would be to find a partner and do a trade, even if just for a low A power arm or even another catcher who is pre-rule 5 (probably low A or rookie ball).
Gerry - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 05:15 PM EST (#367826) #
Conine has issued a statement apologizing. Give him credit for fessing up and not saying he has no idea what happened.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 05:52 PM EST (#367827) #
Ritalin is classified as a drug of abuse, because it's addictive.
It's mostly a mental stimulant. It's banned in every sports. So, is marijuana.
When I was kickboxing, I was drinking a lot of coffee.
Unfortunately, coffee is also a diuretic.
At his age, it shouldn't affect his numbers, but it's still bad news.

scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 05:54 PM EST (#367828) #
I can't imagine a  better coach than Charlie for Urena.
Tulo probably gets the job by default though.

ISLAND BOY - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 05:55 PM EST (#367829) #
Seattle has reportedly traded James Paxton to the Yankees for 3 prospects including number 1 prospect Justice Sheffield.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 05:58 PM EST (#367830) #
Sheffield for Paxton. Interesting. The Yankees trade 4 years of control for an injury plagued starter.
Will they go after Corbin or Happ next?
ISLAND BOY - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 06:04 PM EST (#367831) #
Well, Happ was good for them in the regular season but not so much in the playoffs. I would think they would like to add one of those two though.
bpoz - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 06:19 PM EST (#367832) #
Paxton is a good trade for the NYY. They want to win the AL East. This helps. Severino, Tanaka, Sabathis and Paxton are all V good. Great depth in case of injuries.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 06:22 PM EST (#367833) #
The Yankees chose the hard way to make room on the roster.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 06:29 PM EST (#367834) #
Lefties have better chances in NYY ballpark.
However, Sheffield is also a lefty.
CC will be 38, I don't think he makes another 29 starts.
Could be interesting.

Shoeless Joe - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 06:47 PM EST (#367835) #
I think both the Yankees and Mariners get what they want in this trade. Those are three great prospects for the Mariners as even Dom Thompson-Williams had a massive breakout year. The only thing I would question is if its worth it for the Yanks to cash in so much prospect capital for a guy who has such high injury concerns.
Thomas - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 07:31 PM EST (#367836) #
I'd expose Pentecost and I don't think it's likely he'd be selected. It's challenging to keep a Rule 5 catcher on the roster all year without carrying three catchers. Two catchers were selected in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (Luis Torrens and Stuart Turner) and both of those teams kept three catchers on their major league rosters for most or all of the 2016 season.

Neither of those catchers played in the majors in 2018. Also, Turner was designated for assignment in the spring of 2018 and went unclaimed, as no other team wanted him on their 40 man.

Since 2010, only two other catchers have been selected in the Rule 5 draft. Adrian Nieto was selected by Chicago and stuck with the White Sox for the 2014 season. He was released after spending 2015 in the minors and, as of 2018, was playing independent league baseball. The other catcher was Oscar Hernandez, who is currently bouncing around the minor leagues. Neither catcher has played in the majors after their Rule 5 eligibility concluded.

Pentecost wasn't selected last year and, while he's proven himself a little more defensively and advanced a level, his OPS dropped nearly 100 points from 2017. He could break the pattern of the past catchers, of course, but I'd take that chance and not lose sleep over it.
scottt - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 07:36 PM EST (#367837) #
I guess they figure they can always sign more pitchers on the free agent market if things don't turn up the way they want. They want to win the division next year.
dan gordon - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 09:27 PM EST (#367841) #
Yes, that's another example of how the current system with no salary cap makes life so easy for an extreme payroll team like the Yankees. They can trade their prospects for really good prime year players, and sign the best free agents as well, so they always have a "pipeline" of very good players being added to their team almost every year. At least Seattle managed to take a pretty good haul out of their farm system. So who else are the Yankees getting this offseason - Corbin? Machado?

rafael - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 09:50 PM EST (#367842) #
Conine. I give him credit for skipping the B.S. but I'm tired of cheering on these guys that cheat just cause the Jays need them / are stuck with the now. he may play clean from now on but he probably wouldn't have been drafted where he was. so he's already ripped off a bunch of people.
I wonder if his dad cheated too then... passed on tricks to pass the tests.
I looking at Stroman differently this minute. Chosen on false pretences..
Richard S.S. - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 11:01 PM EST (#367845) #
Justus Sheffield was The MLB's #31 Prospect and the most MLB-Ready/Capable Player the Mariners could get. No one else made an offer that good.

The problem with drug testing is not enough research is done on which naturally occurring substance(s) the drug can be found in. Sometimes a positive test isn't, but MLB is never wrong?

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 19 2018 @ 11:17 PM EST (#367846) #
The Jays have 40-Man Roster decisions on RHP Danny Barnes 29, RHP Joe Biagini 28 and RHP Mark Leiter Jr. 27, INF Yongervis Solarte SW 31, OF Dwight Smith Jr. LH 26, OF Jonathan Diaz RH 26 and OF Dalton Pompey SW 25. I can't see more than two or three staying on the 40-Man which leaves four openings. I guess we'll see if the Jays agree.
Glevin - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 03:22 AM EST (#367848) #
I want the Yankees and Red Sox to trade long-term assets for short-term gain. The Jays are not going to be competitive for a few years so I'd like to see these teams go all-in in the next 3 years to make them weaker in 5. Don't think Pentacost gets taken. He had an 86 WRC+ as a 25 YO in AA with a 24% K rate. He was much better later in the year but the overall numbers are extremely unimpressive and are hard to carry all year unless he's an elite defensive catcher (which he isn't). I'd rather keep guys like Bergen and Copping who I think are closer to helping in the majors.
John Northey - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:35 AM EST (#367850) #
Agreed - seeing that Yankee trade I thought 'thats a lot for a guy who has been hurt and has just 2 years to free agency', and 'wish the Jays did that trade with the Yankees instead'. Top 50 prospects are hard to grab, and getting 3 quality prospects is always a nice haul. If the Yanks and Sox both could do a few more like that - short term gain for long term pain - that'll be great for the Jays. 2019/20 are rebuild, if contending woohoo but odds are a 500 record will be good those 2 years. Then the Sox and Yankees wills start either shedding players or be getting expensive - even for their budgets. Yeah, they both have a lot of young players but as years of control are eaten those kids get very expensive.

Just checking random sites that have lists, I see Bleacher Report dropped Yankees from 3 to 16 before this trade for farm system. Same list has the Jays going from 9th to 3rd. has the Yankees go from 6th to 10th during the season with 3 top 100's left (plus Sheffield). Bottom line, we have to hope the Yankees keep trading prospects for 'win now' parts with 2 years or less of control.
scottt - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:42 AM EST (#367851) #
What is the difference to the Jays specifically for non tendering vs releasing a player. Solarte for example.

Assuming that the Jays don't want him back because their plans have changed. As long as neither is done we have the right to trade him. If non tendered, is he still on the 40 man roster?

Lastly (for now), when is the non tender deadline?

Players eligible for salary arbitration can be non-tendered. They become free agents. The team doing the non-tendering often signs those players to a short contract at a lower rate. This is because teams usually overvalue their own players and these players are usually coming off bad year and are afraid of going back to the minors.

Players already under contracts can be released. This creates space on the rosters, but the release players are still due the entire sum specified in their contracts. If another team sign one of those players, they only pay them the league minor salary and the older team continues to pay the balance.

11:59 tonight is the deadline to add players to the 40 roster to protect them against the Rule  V draft.

The non-tender deadline is Nov 30. If the Blue Jays decides to non-tender Solarte, as they should, they should do it today to create some roster space. It's a bit different for Travis, whom they could simply outright to AAA. A team picking him up on waiver would then have to offer him arbitration.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 10:26 AM EST (#367856) #
One thing I know following the Yankees so closely is that Brian Cashman never makes bad trades and never trades prospects who amount to much after being dealt. There will be times where he acquires a Sonny Gray type and it turns out bad, but the prospects he gave up will likely end up being so inconsequential that it won't matter.

I'm fine with the Yankees trading prospects for players with two years of control left, but I don't think this was a bad deal for them. Their window is now, and it's possible their internal view of Sheffield was not as good as his prospect ranking (on the Michael Kay Show on ESPN it was said that the Yankees did not think he was ready to start right now and looked better in relief, as an example).
bpoz - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 10:51 AM EST (#367857) #
Thanks scottt.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 11:48 AM EST (#367859) #
Brian Cashman never makes bad trades?  Pinstripe Alley doesn't think so.  I'll certainly buy that he has a good trading record overall.

John Lott has an important piece in the The Athletic on the Griffin Conine suspension.  Conine issued a statement describing his "careless decision",  which raises some questions.  Lott provides very helpful background on the state of therapeutic exemptions for ADHD treatment which I have not seen elsewhere. 
PeterG - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 01:46 PM EST (#367860) #
The Blue Jays promoted a number of prospects to AAA and AA today.

Hector Perez
Patrick Murphy
Yennsy Diaz
Travis Bergen
Jordan Romano

At least one will need to be dismissed from present roster.
PeterG - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 02:36 PM EST (#367862) #
Conner Greene, the former top-five #BlueJays prospect who was dealt for Randal Grichuk, has been DFAd by the Cardinals.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 03:18 PM EST (#367865) #
Connor Greene loses a spot on the Cardinals 40 man, and incidentally another former Jays farm hand Lane Thomas takes a spot.
Mike Green - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 03:32 PM EST (#367867) #
At least one will need to be dismissed from present roster.

I don't know what you mean by "present roster".  Are you referring to the 40 man?  And if so, it certainly is possible for another player currently on the 40 man to be dropped. 
bpoz - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 03:45 PM EST (#367872) #
St Louis ended up getting only D Leone from the Jays who had any value.
PeterG - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 03:49 PM EST (#367873) #
Yes, I am referring to the 40 man when I say to present roster.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 04:21 PM EST (#367877) #
Where did you get that information Peter, I haven't seen it anywhere?
Gerry - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 04:30 PM EST (#367878) #
And if the Jays have announced additions, did they not announce a Solarte DFA?
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 05:01 PM EST (#367879) #
RHP Hector Perez (22) in AAA could easily be a callup in 2019 for the Rotation or the Bullpen. More likely he's a Rotation Option for 2020. His stuff is easily good enough to play in a MLB Bullpen. Protect: 40-Man.

LHP Travis Bergen (25) in AAA could easily be a callup in 2019 for the Bullpen. Definitely in the Bullpen in 2020. His stuff is easily good enough to play in a MLB Bullpen. Protect: 40-Man.

RHP Patrick Murphy (23) finally in AA will most likely be a callup in 2020 (unlikely before) for Rotation or Bullpen. Likely a Rotation Option in 2021. in His stuff is good enough to play in a MLB Bullpen. Protect: 40-Man.

RHP Yennsy Diaz (22) could have had a breakout last year. Now in AA, he's still possibly two years away. He's most likely a 2020 callup for Rotation or Bullpen. Uncertain of his stuff. Optional: Borderline.

RHP Jordan Romano (25) in AAA might be a callup in 2019 for Rotation or Bullpen. Likely a Rotation Option in 2020. His stuff could play in a MLB Bullpen. Optional: Borderline.
scottt - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 06:01 PM EST (#367880) #
The Jays are not going early because they don't plan on picking anyone on waivers.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 07:29 PM EST (#367881) #
Patrick Murphy getting added per Shi Davidi tweet.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:08 PM EST (#367885) #
Previous info was wrong. Murphy, Diaz, Perez were added. The final two were Thornton and Waguespack. No Romano. No Pentecost. No Solarte drop.
Gerry - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:14 PM EST (#367887) #
And no Bergen added.

Its tough to carry three catchers these days with all the relievers needed. Romano and Bergen have a better chance to be picked.

Last year we expected to lose some players and we didn't. It's always worse in expectation than it is in reality.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:16 PM EST (#367888) #
I find it interesting that Waguespack was added over Romano, and it seems he might be on the Buffalo shuttle next season if he shows much of anything.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:23 PM EST (#367889) #
I'm more than a little surprised by Waguespack... but he's also someone that Carson Cistulli liked (and wrote about on FanGraphs before moving to the Jays in a scouting capacity). So that might have pushed the needle in his favor.

In order of those likely to be chosen in the Rule 5, in my opinion:
1. McClelland (97-100 mph, significant lack of command)
2. Bergen (lefty, good stuff)
3. Romano (might take off as a reliever)

Chance of sticking all year as Rule 5
1. Bergen
2. Romano
3. McClelland

Teams got a great look at McClelland in the AFL.
scottt - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:29 PM EST (#367890) #
Yeah, surprised by Waguespack but I'm more worried about Bergen than Romano.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:32 PM EST (#367891) #
Not surprised Waguespack was added. He is close to the big leagues, good performance in AAA with solid secondary numbers (lots of GB's, K/9 around 8, etc), and Atkins mentioned size and 'intriguing Trackman data' about him shortly after he was acquired. I think the FO sees him as a viable big league option in 2019.

I don't expect Wall to be taken in the Rule 5. Never know with pitching. Wouldn't be surprised if some are taken or if no one is taken.
scottt - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:33 PM EST (#367892) #
Maybe they still think they can trade Solarte.
Or maybe they figure they will need the extra spaces for free agents/trade acquisitions or even to take a pick themselves in the Rule V if one of the guys they like is somehow available.

It's rather anticlimactic.

bpoz - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 08:34 PM EST (#367893) #
scottt, you comment is good "that the Jays don't plan on picking anyone off waivers".
Last year they claimed T Guerrieri on waivers Nov 6. So not at the last minute. They took advantage of his last option to get a good look at him.

I really liked C Greene. He could be claimed before the Jays have a shot at him. After all J Fernandez was claimed by Detroit.

So the jays should claim him if they can IMO. There are players that can be DFA'd on our 40 man. Some surplus OFs.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 09:05 PM EST (#367894) #
I see that the stacked Padres think enough of Edward Olivares (Solarte trade) to have added him to their 40 man roster.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 09:11 PM EST (#367895) #
The Jays added big Power Arm Starters over anyone else.
85bluejay - Tuesday, November 20 2018 @ 09:20 PM EST (#367896) #
While the rule V draft is a good idea, I would like to see some tweaking - Allen Cordoba (22 y.o) just got designated by the Padres - he was coming along nicely as a 20 y.o in rookie ball when the Padres ruled v him and he spent a crucial developmental year wasting away on the Padres bench in 2017 and couldn't get going in an injury riddled 2018 - I would like there to be some age requirement, maybe 23 or the player should at least have reached AA or maybe if the player is younger than 23 and below AA, then the player has the right to refuse a rule v selection if said player believes it will be harmful to his development.
dan gordon - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 01:35 AM EST (#367907) #
I am amazed that the Jays chose to keep guys like Leiter, Solarte, Davis, Smith Jr. on the roster instead of creating room for guys like Bergen, McClelland, maybe Copping, Wall. Also, adding Waguespack is weird. He hasn't shown all that much in the minors. I think the chance that Bergen has the worst career of Waguespack, Leiter, Davis and Smith Jr is pretty close to zero. I doubt Romano gets taken, and Wall probably doesn't either, but Bergen is probably gone, and I expect he will fare pretty well for whoever gets him. Strange.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 02:10 AM EST (#367909) #
For each acquisition, the Jays will make, someone must go off the 40-Man. Considering there is early FO talk about acquiring either two Starter and two Relievers or one Starter and three Relievers. There still moves to be made.
Glevin - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 02:41 AM EST (#367911) #
Solarte and Leiter are the big surprises for me. Solarte especially. Maybe they think they can tweak Leiter into being a pitcher but Solarte is a bad player. He's a bad player making a lot of money. He's a bad player making a lot of money who plays positions that the Jays already have a ton of depth at. Maybe they can trade him but for what? Someone better than Bergen or McClelland? Doubtful.
85bluejay - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 07:44 AM EST (#367917) #
Solarte is a surprise, maybe the Jays think they can trade him or his collapse was due to injuries - will be interesting to see if they tender him by the Nov. 30th deadline.

Surprised that the A's didn't protect Richie Martin - given the lack of a plus defensive SS in the system, for 50 grand I'd be happy to see the Jays select Martin & give him a long look in spring training - could stick as a backup infielder in this non-contending year and eventually the starting SS - likely not as the Jays seemed determined to have Bo at SS.
Jonny German - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 08:09 AM EST (#367918) #
I'm not too worried about the guys left off, but I do think the 40-man has a lot of filler on it now.

Likely to be non-tendered:
Yangervis Solarte
Devon Travis

Very unlikely to ever be more than bench players:
Jonathan Davis
Dwight Smith

Bullpen mop-up men at best:
Mark Leiter
Joe Biagini
Jacob Waguespack

I'd rather have a spot Rule V pick than any of these guys.
scottt - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 08:26 AM EST (#367919) #
By comparison, the Rays have DFAed 3, including C. J. Cron and outrighted one.

It looks to me that maybe you confused Jacob Waguespack and Danny Barnes.

Jonny German - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 09:07 AM EST (#367922) #
My expectations for Danny Barnes are very low. But not as low as for Waguespack.
scottt - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 09:14 AM EST (#367923) #
I expect Waguespack to get at least one start, but he could be at AAA until September.
Barnes is a middle reliever.

Gerry - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 09:19 AM EST (#367925) #
If the Jays sign a free agent they need to have a spot for them. Solarte could go then. Also timing is important. It's easier to take a player off your 40 man roster in spring than it is before the rule 5 draft. It's probably easier to get someone off after the rule 5 draft than before. So if they want to keep someone but know they will have to come off, say Pompey, then its better to do it later than now.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 09:49 AM EST (#367926) #
I don't understand a number of the 40 man decisions.  There are a variety of different approaches I could see (Jonny's being one), but the one that the club has chosen seems to me to involve protecting players of obviously less value in 2-3 years than players they have left unprotected and may reasonably be selected in the Rule 5 draft.  Perhaps they know something I don't about 6 or 7 players (both protected and not).  Usually any differences are restricted to one or two (or at most three) players.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 09:59 AM EST (#367929) #
For the comment above, the success rate of Rule 5 picks is exceptionall low -- even someone like Jose Bautista bounced around to about four teams until he feel to the Jays, caught up in his development, and exploded. So keeping a potential good fourth outfielder who already has had some success in The Show (Dwight Smith Jr.) has more value.

I can understand the Waguespack decision but don't necessarily agree... I would definitely have dropped someone like Danny Barnes for McClelland and his high heat. I really like Romano's chance as a reliever and the Jays might agree but they definitely seemed to favor pitchers that appear capable of sticking as starters.

I've heard that Leiter scores well with the club's internal metrics.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 11:22 AM EST (#367934) #
they definitely seemed to favor pitchers that appear capable of sticking as starters

If one was reading tea leaves, you could certainly make a case that the club is trending toward more traditional use of pitchers with an emphasis on potential starters.  It's not how I would do it, but that may be part of the logic. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 12:16 PM EST (#367936) #
I think it comes down to starter versus reliever. The team protected starters and exposed relievers. The only exception is Romano, but it's possible the team views him as a RP as well. Assuming neither make the 25 man roster out of ST, then Thornton and Waguespack will both be in the AAA rotation, and Perez/Murphy/Diaz will be in the AA rotation. Starter prospects are more valuable than reliever prospects. You can always turn a failed SP into a RP. A minor league reliever is usually fungible for an organization and it is pretty common to find RP-only types with gaudy minor league performance. Some will turn into assets, most won't.

The Jays still plan on fixing holes on their big league roster from outside the organization. They will need 40 man roster spots to open up when that happens, and it's easier to drop Solarte and others at that point rather than having to drop Bergen, Romano, etc. They run the risk of losing them for nothing now, but it is a good problem to have.
PeterG - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 12:33 PM EST (#367937) #
I don't think there is any chance that Travis is non tendered. He could be traded or optioned to Buffalo but non
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 02:41 PM EST (#367945) #
We should remember that the organization has access to a lot of information about these players that we don’t have. Some of us were unhappy with the loss of players like Leone and Greene, but in those cases it looks as if the front office made the right call in trading them.

I’m sure in some instances it’s a very tough call regarding which player to protect and which one to let go.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 06:14 PM EST (#367954) #
I have some further thoughts on reliever valuation.  Ideally, WAR should correspond roughly to trade value.  For relievers, it does in the off-season, but at the deadline the mechanics are very different.  The reason is playoff value.  The top 5-6 pitchers on a club have much greater value in the playoffs than during the regular season because of the additional off-days (and because almost every PA is in a sense high-leverage).  The top 5-6 pitchers might be all or mostly starters, but commonly include 2 relievers and often enough 3 of them.  For this reason, a 1.5 WAR outfielder ( a good 4th outfielder) ordinarily has considerably less value at the deadline than a 1.5 WAR reliever (a good set-up man).  Even a left-handed specialist can get surprising returns at the deadline because of the possibility of him pitching in 5 games in a 7 game series. 

In the particular case of the Blue Jays now, this would seem important to me.  A pitcher like McLelland or Bergen or Copping could reasonably develop into a pitcher who might not be especially valuable during the regular season but might be more so in the post-season or as a trading chip at the deadline.  For a team that is not looking to compete in 2019, this seems like a worthwhile thing as compared with a 4th outfielder.  I rush to say that I have hopes still that Dalton Pompey might amount to more than that, but I know that I might be alone or close to it.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 06:47 PM EST (#367958) #
November 30th is the official MLB Tender/Non-Tender Deadline. Whether or not the Jays will make one or more acquisition(s) before then, Yangervis Solarte and Dalton Pompey will most likely be non-tendered then if not sooner. Always wait for possible opportunities before non-tendering, DFAing, releasing someone as even throw-ins have value.
scottt - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 07:09 PM EST (#367959) #
Pompey is not arbitration eligible. They can DFA him next spring with no additional cost.
It's just that there's no room for him and PIllar, Grichuk, Hernandez and McKinney and he is out of option.

Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 07:28 PM EST (#367960) #
Possible Rule 5 Eligible losses:

Forrest Wall (23) doesn't stand out anywhere so might not appeal to anyone.
Jordan Romano (26, April 21st) is a candidate, but might not last the year.
Jon Harris (26) is also a candidate, but doesn't stand out anywhere.
Corey Copping (24) is a good candidate, smaller, might not last the year.
Travis Bergen (25) is a good-very good candidate, might be lost.
Jackson McClelland (25 about All Star break) is a good-very good candidate, might be lost.

Everyone else not protected is kind of ho-hum and very unlikely to be picked. Of those picked in the Rule 5, very few are lost.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 08:17 PM EST (#367961) #
Cleveland's thinking of moving a Starter amongst other pieces.

Corey Kluber (33, April 10th): #1 Starter type is under control for three more years.
Carlos Carrasco (32, March 21st): #2 Starter type is under control for two more years.
Trevor Bauer (28, Jan. 17th): Mid-Rotation type is under control for two more years.
Danny Salazar (29, Jan. 11th): Injury issue, Mid-Rotation type, final year of contract.

Three out of four are worth acquiring, good contract value, just not young, but all depending on the price.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 21 2018 @ 08:34 PM EST (#367962) #
Grichuk is a free agent in 2021 and Hernandez' ability to play the outfield is very much in doubt.  It's now possible that Pompey will be with the club in spring training, and if things go well for him, he might have a role. 
dan gordon - Thursday, November 22 2018 @ 02:10 AM EST (#367968) #
I still like Pompey, too Mike. He has speed, has shown an ability to hit when healthy, but has had a terrible run of injuries. I think his poor results the last few years are largely due to all the injuries that he is constantly battling to recover from. Of course the best indicator of future injury is previous injury, so it's likely to be tough for him to stay in a lineup, but if he does get a good run of health, I think he can be a very good player.

That's an interesting idea you have about the value of relievers, Mike. Makes a lot of sense to me. I sure hope they don't lose Bergen, McClelland AND Copping in the rule V. I expect they will lose Bergen, and McClelland is maybe 50/50. It just astonishes me that they think guys like Leiter, Davis, Solarte, Smith, Waguespack, etc., have more value to the organization. I would love to hear what they are thinking in arriving at decisions like that.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 22 2018 @ 08:39 PM EST (#367987) #
A) Jacob Waguespack is 6'6" 225 and might likely be a Reliever/Long Relief/Spot Start in Toronto as soon as next year. There's still the chance they see him as a Starter. the Jays apparently see more about him than we do.

The Blue Jays still have a whole Offseason yet to go. FO verbal suggest that four acquisitions are forthcoming. The Jays preferred the Players they protected over those the didn't. I think it's very unlikely the Jays lose many. They are seeing what value their Players actually have.

1) Dwight Smith Jr. has been a success (sss) in two separate MLB stints - more successful that Alford's (sss) appearances. He will be kept longer than Davis. Might re-sign when/if D.F.A.'d.
2) Jonathan Davis has his opportunity (sss) to show what he had and failed to do so. Not seen as a fit any longer.
3) Yangervis Solarte's next test is November 30th - tender or non-tender. They might be trying to trade him first.
4) Mark Leiter Jr. wasn't a success (sss) with Toronto. Considering when he was acquired, the Jays saw something.
bpoz - Friday, November 23 2018 @ 01:54 PM EST (#368009) #
Has anyone thought of the hitting lineup for the future. Short term and long term.

Opening day to July 31,2019 trade deadline. Trade deadlines till end of the year. 2020 and 2021.

We have a lot of power when Vlad comes up. Vlad will need to be protected so that they don't pitch around him.
Richard S.S. - Friday, November 23 2018 @ 04:56 PM EST (#368013) #
The only lineup that matters occurs after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes up.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB
Justin Smoak SW
Randal Grichuk RHB
Kendrys Morales SW
The Jays will figure out who hits before Vlady and who hits after Kendrys. With this much of the Offseason left, changes to the rest of the Hitters/Lineup is still possible, if not likely.
bpoz - Friday, November 23 2018 @ 06:12 PM EST (#368015) #
Thanks for your response Richard SS.
Most likely power from 3,4,5,6,7. So Vlad, Gurriel, Grichuk, Hernandez, Smoak and Morales. Smoak and Morales could be traded at the deadline. Tellez would have about 250 more ABs in AAA by then so he could easily fit in.
For 1 and 2 on base guys. #9 defense and speed so that likely becomes a weak spot.
Not sure about #8. But Jansen has to go somewhere.
#1 will be tricky.
I have not mentioned Bichette yet. He could be called up late 2019 but 2020 is more likely. 600+ ABs in AAA should prepare him, I hope.

I want our lineup to be as strong as NYY, Boston and Houston.
Richard S.S. - Friday, November 23 2018 @ 07:17 PM EST (#368018) #
It's very important when Guerrero (RHB) comes up to have the scariest bat hitting behind him. Right now that's Smoak, a lefty/switch hitter. I like Grichuk (RHB) as the next best hitter. Followed by Morales, switch hitter, should make things uneasy for opposing Pitching. Spring Training will determine who hits 1st and 2nd. The remaining three hitters will be placed as best hitter next.

This lineup only has to work Valdy's first year. After that, he should be well adjusted to the Major Leagues. With Smoak, Morales and Martin becoming Free Agents everything changes well beyond speculation. I just don't want anyone to underestimate what might be possible.
PeterG - Saturday, November 24 2018 @ 10:20 AM EST (#368037) #
I don't think the Jays will lose anyone in Rule 5 while I also believe that they are poised to make a selection themselves. Here is a list from of possible candidates:
scottt - Saturday, November 24 2018 @ 12:17 PM EST (#368040) #
Oscar Gonzalez could be interesting to have a look at in spring training, even if it's just to push the other outfielders before he's returned.

As for a pitcher who could stick in the pen, Art Warren probably gets piced before the Jays' turn.

I think it's more likely they grab someone off waivers instead.
PeterG - Saturday, November 24 2018 @ 06:50 PM EST (#368044) #
There are pitchers available with more potential than guys they left off. With the 9th pick, there will be a good arm still there. Not every team ahead of them will make a pick. San Diego, for example, will likely not have roster room as they have had to make multiple deals just to get down to 40.
PeterG - Saturday, November 24 2018 @ 07:47 PM EST (#368047) #
Just to correct my own post....this article says Jays pick 9th but I think it is 10th

Atlanta only picks 9 in rule 4 in June as compensation for not signing 1st round pick. Jays had same record as Giants but SF finished lower previous year so should be 9 and Jays 10

I think this is correct.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 25 2018 @ 12:09 AM EST (#368050) #
I always thought ties were determined by a coin flip 😉.
mendocino - Sunday, November 25 2018 @ 02:13 AM EST (#368054) #
PeterG you are correct
Jays pick #10 in the rule 5 & pick #11 in draft
scottt - Sunday, November 25 2018 @ 02:49 PM EST (#368057) #
It's another slow day.
Yet, when the top MLB news is the political donations made by  the Commissioner's office, it's a pretty bad optic.
Slow day or not.
John Northey - Sunday, November 25 2018 @ 10:20 PM EST (#368058) #
Wonder if the Jays are at all interested in Yusei Kikuchi. He is the latest pitcher from Japan to want to come to MLB. Entering his age 28 season he won't affect international money either. He is the first under the new posting system where the old team gets a percentage of whatever contract he signs so he is a total free agent.

A lifetime 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9 vs 3.3 BB/9 suggests a decent starter but not a #1. More of a #3/4 is how he is described. The last 2 years he moved up a notch, with ERA's of 1.97 and 3.08, 2.3 and 2.5 BB/9 vs 10.4 8.4 K/9 in 2017 2018 respectively. I'd try for him, $10 mil a year for 5 years is reasonable to look at, maybe $15 per. All depends on what scouts think of his ability to come over and be a solid pitcher day one. 6 years of control means you get age 28-33 seasons AKA prime all the way. Also would hit into contending years for the Jays so very tempting. Problem is the Yankees might be chasing him as well so the price jumps then and could easily get too high, but worth digging into I'd say.
Richard S.S. - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 03:49 AM EST (#368060) #
I agree John.
The Jays really need to acquire a Starter of Yusei Kikucki's caliber. I think he's more likely more of a #2-#3 Starter than he is a #3-#4 Starter. I think 6 years at $15.0 Million per year is acceptable, possibly adding one or more option years.
By most reports, the Jays are after J.A. Happ who will be older now than Kikucki will be after an option ends. Happ will most likely require $15.0 -$16.5 Million over two or more years.
I think once you are paying $15.0 Million or more per year for anyone, a better caliber anyone with term is needed.
scottt - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 08:19 AM EST (#368061) #
I think Happ is the number one target for the Jays, but Kikuchi is worth keeping an eye one.
There's a lot of teams looking for pitching, not just the Yankees and the Jays.
They Yankees needs just one more starter, probably Corbin.
Cleveland is trying to move one guy. Houston is not chasing Keuchel
The snakes are trying to move Greinke. Eovaldi is another top pitcher that's up there.
So is Morton.

MLBTR predicts the Pirates will net Kikuchi for 6/42M and the Jays will book Trevor Cahill for 2/22M.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 06:20 PM EST (#368092) #
J.A. Happ earned an increase on last year's Salary and he expects term despite turning 36 on October 19th. I don't expect him to stay healthy.
On the other hand, Yusef Kikuchi will earn a lot more than the mere pittance MLB Trade Rumors suggests. He will only be 28 on June 17th next year, so everyone will be interested. Both Pitchers will easily earn about the same amount of money.
scottt - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 06:42 PM EST (#368096) #
Leiter is finally gone and the Jays have picked up Drake from the Rays instead.
scottt - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 06:50 PM EST (#368097) #
The name sounds familiar.

He's a guy who has problems getting through waivers.
He was actually pretty good in Minnesota one they picked him from Toronto.

I don't quite remember what he throws.

He had an ERA+ of 32 and a FIP of 0.76 in the six.

Richard S.S. - Monday, November 26 2018 @ 07:03 PM EST (#368099) #
He's an upgrade on Mark Leiter Jr. if his Minnesota numbers are just half as good.
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