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The affiliates rebounded with three wins on Wednesday. Anthony Alford and Socrates Brito led Buffalo to a win. Tampa helped the Dunedin Jays win but Nick Allgeyer was very good again. Josh Winkowski pitched well for Lansing. New Hampshire couldn't make it a sweep with a close loss.

I also decided to take a look at some stats, specifically the leaders in OPS for hitters and WHIP for pitchers. I was surprised by one thing, namely the amount of promotions that have already happened this season. Normally we wait until this time of the season, after the draft and when the short season teams start, to see who is promoted. But when you look at the top performers in the minors, many of them have already been promoted. It's also time for a pop quiz question. Among Blue Jays hitters with at least 100 at-bats, who has the fewest strikeouts?

Syracuse 4 Buffalo 6

Andrew Sopko was charged with all four runs even though he just allowed two hits. Both hits were home runs, and he also walked five. Jordan Romano had a bad start to the season, his ERA was over 9 on May 14th. Since then he has pitched four times, seven innings, three hits, ten K's. It's a small sample but worthy of following. He does still have issues with left handed hitters, he has to solve that before he could get promoted.

Anthony Alford had two doubles, he has turned around from a poor April. Socrates Brito continues to dominate AAA, he homered and drove in three runs. Andy Burns was 2-3.

Looking at some stats in Buffalo, five of the top six in OPS are in Toronto. They are Vlad, Biggio, Davis, Gurriel and Sogard. The only one not in the majors is Socrates Brito. The only one of the top eight in OPS not to feature in the majors is Andy Burns. Vlad is blocking him although Burns can play in several positions. Burns got off to a slow start but has hit well in May.

On the pitching side, if we limit our look to those with ten innings or more, Derek Law and Tayler Saucedo have the best WHIP. Law is in the majors and Saucedo back in AA. Dusty Isaacs and Justin Shafer (promoted) have also pitched well. Ryan Feierabend is the best of the starters. In general, the Jays have promoted their best performers in AAA. That seems like good motivation.

New Hampshire 4 Harrisburg 5

Zach Logue left the game with a 3-2 lead but Jake Fishman and Bryan Baker gave up three runs. Logue needed almost 100 pitches to get through five innings. He had just one strikeout. Offensively, Forrest Wall and Kevin Smith hit solo home runs. Riley Adams drove in the other two runs with a double. Adams and Santiago Espinal each had two hits.

Looking at the stats for the New Hampshire hitters doesn't make for great reading. Patrick Kivlehan is way ahead, but in only 16 at-bats, and he now in AAA. Riley Adams and Forrest Wall are the only two over an 800 OPS. The pitching stats in New Hampshire are much better than in Buffalo. Kirby Snead and Andrew Sopko lead in WHIP, they are both now in AAA. Danny Young and Ty Tice are close behind. Patrick Murphy is at 1.05, very good and better than Nate Pearson's 1.08.

Tampa 1 Dunedin 4

The Jays win a second in a row against a tough Tampa Yankee team. The Yankees helped the Jays by hitting three batters in a row before a couple of hits led the Jays to four runs. Cal Stevenson and Chavez Young each had two hits, Stevenson drove in two runs. Nick Allgeyer pitched six innings, four hits, one run, seven K's. Allgeyer's ERA is now 2.44. Allgeyer doesn't dominate with "stuff", he doesn't throw particularly hard, but he has sveral pitches and knows how to use them. AA is the big test for this kind of pitcher.

The leaders in OPS in Dunedin are Alejandro Kirk (just promoted), Riley Adams (just promoted), Cullen Large and Luis De Los Santos (just demoted). They are the only ones over 800. On the pitching side, Nate Pearson and William Ouellette lead in WHIP, both have been promoted. Brad Wilson is next, he has been pitching well for a 2018 draft pick. He has a WHIP of .8 and 25 K's in 21 innings.

Lansing 3 Dayton 1

Lansing had just four hits, three of them in the inning where they scored all their runs. Reggie Pruitt doubled, Griffin Conine singled him in, then Jake Brodt homered. It was Brodt's seventh home run. Josh Winkowski pitched seven shutout innings, four hits, eight strikeouts. His ERA is 2.10.

Gabriel Moreno and Alejandro Kirk top the OPS charts in Lansing. Jordan Groshans is third with Jake Brodt fourth. In case you haven't been following Jackson Rees has been having a fantastic season for Lansing. His WHIP is .75 and he has 40 K's in 22 innings. Four of the starting pitchers are bunched between 1.30 and 1.32 WHIP.


The answer to the strikeout question is Alejandro Kirk with 15 K's in 126 AB's, before tonights game. Roemon Fields is next. I also looked at the walk to strikeout relationship. Alejandro Kirk and Cavan Biggio lead the way with 26 walks and 15 K's and 34 walks and 28 K's respectively. Amonmg the players with almost as many walks as strikeouts are Forrest Wall (26/35); Cal Stevenson (22/26); Nick Podkul (27/29); Andy Burns (18/22); Roemon Fields and Nash Knight.

3 Stars

3rd star: Anthony Alford

2nd star: Nick Allgeyer

1st star: Josh Winkowski


Winkowski and Allgeyer Dominate plus a Pop Quiz | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Glevin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 02:43 AM EDT (#374646) #
Good to see Conine back. Struggled with Ks last year but hopefully he can fix some things this year. Is Adams now a top-10 prospect? Ks too much so far in AA but he's a catcher who has hit at every level and has shown pretty good patience as well.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 04:35 AM EDT (#374648) #
Continuing the draft chat, if we are going to go the pitcher route at #11, then I definitely prefer Rutledge over Jackson. The other two pitchers around there are Manoah and Thompson, and the latter's scouting reports read like the next Deck McGuire/Chad Jenkins. Manoah's command in videos does not look great either. Still prefer Carroll but it doesn't seem like it's happening.

The back half of the first round actually has some pretty interesting names. Daniel Espino could end up the best pitcher out of any of them.

For the 2nd round, I hope Barco, Goss or fall. If we're going to be taking a college pitcher, I rather take the risk on someone like Zeferjahn over Jensen. Noah Song's situation is also very interesting with the military commitment, because without it he's an easy top 50 player. Garcia would be solid if he fell to the 3rd round.

...I may be spending too much time looking at the draft. Old habits have returned.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 04:36 AM EDT (#374649) #
minus the "over Jackson". Apparently I'm tired too.
Glevin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 05:10 AM EDT (#374650) #
"Continuing the draft chat, if we are going to go the pitcher route at #11, then I definitely prefer Rutledge over Jackson. The other two pitchers around there are Manoah and Thompson, and the latter's scouting reports read like the next Deck McGuire/Chad Jenkins. Manoah's command in videos does not look great either. Still prefer Carroll but it doesn't seem like it's happening."

I prefer hitters higher in the draft because they are more predictable but Manoah, Thompson, and Rutledge all look good although I also like Thompson least there. I think the Jays could probably still go a bunch of different ways as well. It would not surprise me if they took any of the aforementioned three or Caroll, Bishop, Stott, Batty, or Jung. There are tiers every year in the draft and this year, there looks like a strong top-6 and then around 10 players in the same range. Also, a couple of teams in the 6-10 range could go underslot and change things. Or, the Jays could decide they want to spread money around and take someone cheaper. Either way, with 3 picks in top-100, Jays should get one excellent prospect and a few more interesting ones.

I remain shocked with how little work baseball puts into their draft. Allow draft pick trading and you will see a flurry of activity and interest on draft day. Teams trading up and down but also teams going for it, trading their picks (i.e. Padres pick 6th and are going for it. Would they be open to trading the pick for veteran players?)
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#374653) #
The draft goes 30 round and last 2 days. I don't see how they could put more work into it.

All trading draft picks would accomplish is letting some teams deplete their farm system even further, going into the negative. What dulls the interest is the long wait for draftees to wade through the system and become valuable players.

Cavan Biggio is the first player from the 2016 draft to reach. The Blue jays picked 40 players that year.
The Jays' first pick, Zeuch, is injured and hasn't played this year.
The second pick, Woodman was traded for Diaz, then switched for Thornton, who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2015 draft by Houston.
The third pick, Bichette, is injured and has barely played.
The fourth pick, Zack Jackson, is a reliever with Buffalo (ERA 5.32, WHIP 1.54)
The fifth pick, Joshua Palacios is in AA with an OPS of .709.
The 6th pick was Biggio.
The 7th pick, DJ Daniels, never hit and didn't even make A ball.
The 8th pick, Andy Ravel, is in Lansing with a WHIP of 1.50.
The 9th pick, Kyle Weatherly, is a reliever in Dunedin with a WHIP of 1.52.
The 10th pick, Nick Hartman, was released after relieving in Dunedin with a WHIP of 1.70 last year.
The 11th pick, Kerby Snead, is a lefty reliever in AAA with a WHIP of 0.375
The 16th pick, Josh Winckowsky is a starter for Lansing with an ERA of 2.40, because he was a high school pick and he's only 21, he could still make it.
The 28th pick, Ryan Gold, is catching in Lansing with an OPS of .732. Still got a long shot because he's 21.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#374655) #
I have really zoned in on Carrol, Rutledge and Manoah in that order for the Jays picks, but either are fine. I don't really like Zack Thompson or Bryson Stott at #11 as they seem to lack tools and projection.

I was reading though that this is a weak draft for pitching and in those types of drafts it is better to avoid drafting pitchers all together, as other teams reach for the best of the generally weak bunch.

Also Shea Langeliers was actually drafted by the Jays in 2016, but he did not sign.

Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#374657) #
It's Pearson day in Harrisburg.  First pitch in a few minutes.  What is this thing they call work?
bpoz - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#374660) #
Pearson threw 25 pitches in the 1st inning.
Marc Hulet - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#374661) #
Manoah and Stott are hard passes for me... Manoah is a big kid and there are only a handful of starting pitchers that have ever had any kind of long term success as a start with the type of weight he's projected to carry. Stott has a meh body and not much projection as a hitter.

Thompson has major red flags with his heath.

I'm all over George Kirby; decent velo, plus control and the makings of three better-than-average offerings, and four overall. I'd be OK with Rutledge although I don't like his arm action... same concern I had when the Jays drafted Daniel Norris - short arms the ball which leads to command issues he never overcame, even though they lessened that action once he turned pro.

If not Kirby or Rutledge, I'd prefer a hitter like Jung or Hoese or Baty... I think the Jays need to look to college pitchers rather than prep but if they were to go that route, I'd rank in order: Allan, Espino, Malone and Priester
John Northey - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#374662) #
Baseball drafts are a real crapshoot.
  • 2016 has great potential thanks to Biggio, Bichette, and Zeuch.
  • 2015: Travis Bergen is the only one to reach so far (via Rule 5-now in SF), Harris is in AAA and might get a shot this year, this draft could be a washout for the Jays in the end
  • 2014: 4 players have reached, 66 games total mostly for Jeff Hoffman who has a negative WAR. SRF is part of this group, Max Pentecost has already retired, might be another washout.
  • 2013: 10 reached so far, Matt Boyd & Graveman are the big 2 with over 5 WAR each but mostly for other teams. Could be a good one in the long run with Tellez, Jansen, Davis, Mayza, among others on the list. This was the one where they drafted but didn't sign Phil Bickford who has stalled out in the minors it seems.
  • 2012: Stroman & Alford & Borucki but the first pick was DJ Davis who has yet to get past A+.
  • 2011: #1 for WAR is Aaron Nola who sadly didn't sign (17.1 WAR so far for the Phillies recently signed through 2023. #2 is Pillar at 14 WAR (32nd round) then a batch of guys who will only be remembered by true addicts of baseball including Dwight Smith Jr.
I think that covers enough to get a good idea of drafts and how impossible predicting them can be.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#374665) #
Agreed Marc. I think Hoese is underrated for the hitters this draft, and glad to see you also value Espino and Malone. Looking back into Kirby, I'd say him and Rutledge would be my #1/#2 for college pitchers.

It's true the draft is quite unpredictable, and Toronto has been notoriously weak at 1st round success rates. It would be safe to say that the players that would've had the most impact to the Jays in recent years (outside Syndergaard) are the picks we never signed (Nola, Bryant).
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#374672) #
Thompson is definitively a pass. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in the second round.

I don't know about pitcher size. This is the front office who drafted Sabathia.
He went 20th overall and was arguably the best player in that draft with J.D. Drew going 5th and the Jays taking Felipe Lopez with the 8th pick.
On the pitcher side, Mark Mulder was 2nd, Jeff Austin 4th, Ryan Mills 6th, J.M Gold 13th, Jeff Weaver 14th, Clint Johnston 15th, Kip Wells 16th, Brad Lidge 17th, Seth Etherton 18th.

Personally, I'd be disappointed if they took another stocky, slow running infielder with a good hit tool.
Both leagues are stocked with good third basemen, so it starts to depreciate their value.

Part of the strategy might depend on who they are targeting on the international market, even though it's not the prime consideration, you still need to field teams.

Thomas - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#374675) #
The Jays also took Nola and Bryant not expecting them to sign, either, so it's easy to point to them as the best draft picks.

There is an interesting note at MLB Trade Rumours about a technicality of which I was unaware. Cody Reed of the Reds was called up as the 26th man for a doubleheader, got hurt and had to go on the DL. However, he has to go on the minor league DL, because there is no official transaction to the major league roster as a 26th man (it's agreed the player receives major league pay for the one day).

It's not clear how much time Reed will actually miss, but if he is injured for a month or so, he might lose significant money. Reed is making a veteran salary at Triple-A, but nevertheless he could lose something approximating a third of his salary (i.e. the difference between what he'd get on a major league DL as compared to a minor DL over a month or so might amount to about a third of what he's making in total this year if he spent the season in the minors).
Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#374676) #
Ronny Brito is making his debut in the Blue Jay system tonight, playing third base for Dunedin.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#374677) #
They're in the 4th inning in Dunedin and Ligan Warmoth needs only a single for the cycle.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#374678) #
The Tampa starting pitcher was Janson Junk.

There is a physician named Dr. Pain, but I would be leery about being treated by them.
greenfrog - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#374679) #
So the latest scouting report on Warmoth is that he can hit Junk?
bpoz - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#374680) #
Love it . M Green.
bpoz - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#374681) #
G Moreno was hit by pitch and left the game.
Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#374682) #
Well done, greenfrog. Funny and family-friendly humour.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#374683) #
@Thomas - Of course. I do remember the excitement around here when we drafted Bryant, though. But hey, I guess our 3B situation worked out in the end ;)
Mike Green - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#374684) #
The Tampa Tarpons followed Janson Junk with Braden Bristo. Not much of a club and murder on announcers.
PeterG - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#374686) #
In his second game with Lansing, Griffin Conine is 3 for 4 so far with 2 doubles amd a HR, all to opposite field.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#374687) #
Make that 4-5 with 2 homers and 2 doubles, I think his stay in Lansing will be brief.
scottt - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#374689) #
DJ Davis who has yet to get past A+.

DJ Davis was released a year ago. I think he's out of baseball.
Kelekin - Thursday, May 30 2019 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#374690) #
I think the knock on Conine has always been the same - the hope being that he can cut down his strikeout rates, take some walks, and that should be enough so that his hit tool can carry him otherwise.

Speaking of great hit tools but needing to take more walks - is Gabriel Moreno okay? He needed a pinch-runner quite early on in that game.
scottt - Sunday, June 02 2019 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#374805) #
I would not be surprised if Atlanta takes a pitcher like Rutledge.
Although I have no idea who's linked to whom.

Winkowski and Allgeyer Dominate plus a Pop Quiz | 27 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.