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Because it's clearly needed.

Atkins said something the other day that got my attention, although it seems to have passed more or less unnoticed.


Basically, he was talking about lightning striking; about the organization benefiting from what amounts to dumb, random luck. That's not how he put it, but it's what he was talking about.  The example Atkins took from his Cleveland experience was Corey Kluber, a fourth round pick who came to Cleveland in the Jake Westbrook trade. It's not something you can count on, which he seemed to realize, but it certainly happens. I've always thought dumb, blind luck was far more important in baseball than anyone ever seems to realize or talk about.

But we should know about that here, as there's no way the 2015 Jays ever happens without it.  Unforeseeable dumb luck was the heart and soul of that team. A utility player who had been obtained mainly because the incumbent third baseman was injury-prone became the best hitter in the whole wide world in Anthopoulos' first year on the job. In his second year, he drafted a player in the 32nd round. Those guys are organization filler if you're lucky. But by 2015, this 32d round pick was giving the team a 4.9 WAR season and providing the best outfield defense the franchise had seen in a generation. A player who had been forced upon the franchise when the injury-prone third baseman mentioned earlier asked for a way out of town turned into a 40 HR slugger in his 30s. A marginal pitcher, whose main claim to fame was leading the league in home runs allowed and who started the season in the Toronto bullpen became a very good number two man in the rotation at age 31, and an All-Star the next year. Even Josh Donaldson - that's mostly just a good baseball trade, but good luck and good timing are always involved when some other team decides they need to put a potential MVP on the trade market. That kind of opportunity doesn't come around very often.  Certainly, the Jays don't win championships in the 1990s if San Diego doesn't decide that they need a shortstop so badly that they'll give up Roberto Alomar to get one.

Stuff like this happens completely out of the blue. Heaven knows Gord Ash and J.P. Ricciardi never had that kind of luck. If Atkins doesn't have that kind of luck he's not going to succeed either, which is something he actually seems to realize. You can build around it once it happens, which Anthopoulos managed to do successfully just as the clock was ticking towards midnight. But you can't make it happen. You have your process, whatever it is. And then you cross your fingers.
Blue Jays at Orioles, continued | 103 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
PeterG - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#379068) #
There is a lot of truth in what you say Magpie. I enjoyed reading it.
Nigel - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#379069) #
Notwithstanding that Bautista and EE are the most recent Jays’ examples, I do think this idea of dumb luck is particularly true with pitchers. Their development paths are sometimes just so damn unpredictable. Of course, you also need to know when not to look a gift horse in the mouth. I know I’m alone in this boat, but this was one of the reasons I wasn’t in favour of trading Sogard. Maybe he has a fluky post 30’s power spike? I’d have gambled on that (because of some of his other attributes) rather than trading him for what I presume will be peanuts. I understand the alternative view though. I know I often thought Ash was plain unlucky.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#379070) #
I have no idea why this post is behaving this way.

Oh: besides process and dumb luck. You can also have your own license to print money, if all else fails. (Hello, New York!) But the Blue Jays have clearly decided that's not for them. Or you can try losing 324 games in three years and see what you get in the draft. (Hello, Houston!) Atkins knows he won't be allowed to try that here. He'd be out the door before it ever got that far.
grjas - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#379071) #
Yes exactly. The AA years may have had a very different narrative without this level of luck, something I’ve been arguing for a while. Having said that, AA was smart enough to pounce on the opportunity before the inevitable decline with aggressive trading.

Still, I believe the drafting and developing strategy is the best for continued success over a longer period. Sure many organizations are trying to implement the same strategy- not that unusual in any industry- so the Jays have to do it better. And have some good luck.

On the other hand, crazy trades whose success is totally reliant on good luck are not at all helpful. And demoralizing for fans.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#379072) #
crazy trades whose success is totally reliant on good luck are not at all helpful.

On the one hand, I have no issue with the guys he traded. I wouldn't have kept a single one of them. But in my mind that's the best justification for these trades at the moment,  none of these guys are worth keeping long-term anyway.  That worries me a little. I've always thought a trading strategy needs to focus on who you're getting, not who you're giving up.  I'm hoping the Sanchez trade was made because Atkins really, really wants Derek Fisher. He may be wrong about that - everyone here seems pretty sure of themselves about that -  but that should still be the motivation for the transaction
pooks137 - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#379073) #
I didn't remember Atkins making the alluded Kluber quote, but I found the original on a piece from Shi Davidi July 31st. I assume it's from Atkins' post deadline TV interview with Arash Madani

“We won’t have game-changing talent in our system until it’s doing it in the major leagues,” said Atkins.

“Oftentimes, I think that the best stories in baseball happen from depth. We work very hard to identify just one player and project when we acquire our first-round pick or when we’re targeting a player for a trade with a magnitude of Marcus Stroman. Those players typically have higher chances to have that game-changing talent, but there are all too often stories across baseball where players are coming into a player development system and making significant strides and becoming players like (Jacob) deGrom, or players like Corey Kluber, or players like Mike Clevinger, who didn’t have quite the pedigree.

“We’re confident we’re going to have a story from that group and sure, is the likelihood that Nate Pearson and Simeon Woods Richardson and Alek Manoah have a higher likelihood of being game-changing? Sure. But we feel as though that Patrick Murphy and Anthony Kay and (others) from that group (of pitchers in the system) are going to have an incredible story that becomes game-changing talent.”

Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#379075) #
The luck hasn't been good so far. Stroman was their best chip, and his value was never going to be higher than it was at this year's deadline. (Last winter he was going off a sub-par injury season;  this coming winter, he's only good one year left and who knows - he could get hurt again.) But I think the entire industry was spooked by Pittsburgh's disastrous trade for  Chris Archer at the 2018 deadline.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#379076) #
Italics begone.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#379077) #
I heard Shapiro in an interview I think in the spring of 2018 mention (in answer to a question about Gurriel) that you don't know how or which prospects will develop, so his philosophy is to acquire as many as possible (waves and waves he said) and hopefully enough will develop to build a consistent contender and that's basically what this FO has been doing - let's hope they get the execution right.
lexomatic - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#379078) #
Nigel, I would be more likely to but into a Sogard power spike if there were freely available stats that would support it , like launch angle or pulling the ball more (I havent checked for these). My gut says it's just the league power spike, and him being healthy and making good contact.
I have zero problems by my supposed reasoning for making the Sogard trade.
uglyone - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#379079) #
I've tried to reinforce that that is most definitely the way our FO views championships - as luck.

In their minds, the only smart thing to do is to keep gathering as many lottery tickets as possible and waiting to hit jackpots.

They may be right.
grjas - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#379080) #
trading strategy needs to focus on who you're getting, not who you're giving up.

True, but if you give up too much to get what you want, it reduces your inventory for future trades. And given Fisher’s position within the Astro organization, I think they gave up too much.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#379081) #

Ross Atkins says the Blue Jays now have a list of 20 pitchers who "check all the boxes" to be starters at the big league level.

This was another quote from the immediate post-deadline Arash Madani interview

It was widely mocked by the Twitterverse, but it was in the same context as the Kluber luck quote.

IOW, not that they believe they are 20 MLB starters deep, but believe they have at least 20 candidates for potentially a couple "luck" above-average breakout MLB starters to fill the rotation.

I thought the mocking of the quote was unfair. This quantity SP model was essentially AA's entire drafting philosophy, at the expense of any homegrown position players beyond Kevin Pillar. It basically came down to AA believing he could buy hitters but pitching was either unobtainable or at least more valuable as prospect assets in trades to get other assets you need

This quantity method did lead to some good SP (Syndergaard, Stroman, Sanchez), but these guys were all 1st rounders (though mostly late-to-comp round picks) showing it was still hard to get lucky with lower assets. He also signed Osuna, but he was an expensive, highly ranked IFA. Even lesser successes like Joe Musgrove and Daniel Norris were high picks/expensive signings.

The quantity/pitching heavy focus did lead to other pitchers, but not many above-average diamonds in the rough for less regarded guys (Boyd, Graveman, Desclafani, Castro)

Glevin - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#379082) #
"I know I’m alone in this boat, but this was one of the reasons I wasn’t in favour of trading Sogard. Maybe he has a fluky post 30’s power spike?"

The thing is, it doesn't matter. let's say, unlikely as it is, Sogard has become an amazing hitter at 33, he's still a free agent and some team would want to pay more than the Jays would next year. He's 33 and he is blocking prospects from playing. I think with pitchers there is a lot of luck. Where I generally disagree with both AA and Atkins is that I would almost never be drafting pitchers in the first round. There is so much flukiness that you can get guys later that explode. Grab premium position prospects and pitchers in bulk.
Kelekin - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#379083) #
Sometimes, I think AA was the luckiest GM in the world. His two best hitters were acquired during his predecessor's tenure, and it is surely true that JPR, while maybe not as good a GM as AA, was overall quite unlucky. The Jays should've won 36 more games in his tenure (based on Pythagorean logic). Even though I never agreed with his drafting strategy during the first half of his term, JPR was somewhat unlucky in this regard too.

Of course, now AA is in Atlanta, an organization almost fully built by the talented and sketchy GM before him, and they will make the playoffs. I love Atlanta due to growing up on TBS, so I'm happy for him to have landed there, but I already am prepared for a thousand articles about how much the Jays screwed up if they do well.

Personally, I would've loved to have seen a combination of Shapiro and AA actually work out. Shapiro's organizational building and development strategies combined with AA's trading? Would've been a great combo.
bpoz - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#379084) #
I am surprised that Atkins gave such an honest, sincere explanation of his philosophy. Very deep thoughts. I am happy that he just gave a few names (Pearson, Murphy).

The 20 SPs that are checking all the boxes have to be throughout the minors.

Manoah (University) is not ready now. He should start in Dunedin in 2020, like Zeuch and Pearson did. They are currently in AAA and AA which is good considering their injury time. Pearson 89 IP so far in the minors. Zeuch also slowed by injury.

So both if healthy from the beginning could have been promoted to the Jays already.

I hope Manoah stays healthy and is as good. He could make it in his 3rd year, so half way through 2021.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#379085) #
JPR, while maybe not as good a GM as AA, was overall quite unlucky.

Also: Anthopoulos fought for his job. Recall the mid-season of 2015. Rogers is negotiating with Shapiro to replace Beeston (and Shapiro, unlike Beeston, was a baseball guy who would certainly not leave Cleveland if he wan't going to have involvement in the baseball side of things). The team on the field is sputtering along at .500, still riding the Treadmill of Mediocrity. He'd taken his big swing for the fences in the 2012-13 off-season and his team simply crapped the bed. He kept trying and after the two big trades at the end of July the ballclub and unexpectedly went on the greatest hot streak in franchise history. (By definition, that's something unexpected.) It didn't save this job - what Shapiro had already agreed to take to leave Cleveland and what Anthopoulos wanted in order to stay (the same autonomy he'd had with Beeston) were fundamentally incompatible. But he'd kept swinging, he'd made a success of it, and he was out of work for five minutes. He'd made his bones! So he's somebody else's GM now.

Whereas Ricciardi, with the writing on the wall heading into 2009, three of his starting pitchers already lost for the season before it even began (and a fourth starter lost in the very first week) - simply shrugged his shoulders and gave up. And has never worked as a GM since.
pooks137 - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#379086) #

Sometimes, I think AA was the luckiest GM in the world. His two best hitters were acquired during his predecessor's tenure

Not only was he lucky to inherit EE from JPR and have him breakout in 2012, he was lucky to lose to waivers to the As in Nov 2010 and then have Oakland non-tender him a month later, allowing the Jays to sign him to a below-market FA deal.

AA's history and the 2015 run are remembered quite differently if Oakland could have afforded to keep EE

greenfrog - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#379087) #
My recollection is that the team’s impressive run differential in the summer of 2015 suggested the team was due to go on a run, especially with the addition of some key pieces before the trade deadline. The 2015 team was good, even when it was playing .500 ball.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#379088) #
That's absolutely true. Of course, there's a long, sad history of Toronto teams outscoring the opposition and finding a way to lose. The 2009 team outscored the opposition and were 12 games under .500. So yeah - they ought to be due, they ought to have their luck turn around - but one season is much too small a sample size for luck to even out.
uglyone - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#379089) #
"It basically came down to AA believing he could buy hitters but pitching was either unobtainable or at least more valuable as prospect assets in trades to get other assets you need"

Well, he was right.

"
This quantity method did lead to some good SP (Syndergaard, Stroman, Sanchez), but these guys were all 1st rounders (though mostly late-to-comp round picks) showing it was still hard to get lucky with lower assets. He also signed Osuna, but he was an expensive, highly ranked IFA. Even lesser successes like Joe Musgrove and Daniel Norris were high picks/expensive signings.

The quantity/pitching heavy focus did lead to other pitchers, but not many above-average diamonds in the rough for less regarded guys (Boyd, Graveman, Desclafani, Castro)"


That's a bit uncharitable.

6yrs of drafting pitching produced this:

SP Syndergaard 14.7war
SP Stroman 13.5
SP Sanchez 9.0
SP Boyd 6.8
SP Desclafani 5.9

SP Graveman 5.4
SP Norris 4.2
SP Musgrove 3.5
SP Borucki 1.3
SP SRF 0.2

RP Osuna 8.0
RP Dyson 5.3
RP Barnes 1.1
RP Mayza 0.9
RP Shafer 0.8


On the hitting side it's really only pillar, hechavarria, vladdy, Jansen...and maybe Tellez.
uglyone - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#379090) #
"His two best hitters were acquired during his predecessor's tenure"

A certain MVP might disagree.

And AA took a lot of heat for signing those 2 inherited bats to amazing extensions.

2015

Donaldson 8.7war - AA
Bautista 5.2 - JP
Encarnacion 4.5 - JP
Martin 4.3 - AA
Pillar 3.7 - AA
Travis 2.2 - AA
Tulo/Reyes 2.2 - AA
Cola 1.4 - AA
Revere 0.7 - AA

Smoak 0.7 - AA
Valencia 1.3 - AA
Goins 1.3 - JP
Navarro 0.2 - AA


Price 2.6 - AA
Buehrle 2.0 - AA
Estrada 1.9 - AA
Dickey 1.8 - AA
Stroman 0.4 - AA

Hendricks 1.5 - AA
Hutch 1.4 - JP
Osuna 1.3 - AA
Cecil 1.3 - JP
Hawkins 0.3 - AA
Sanchez 0.2 - AA
Loup 0.2 - JP
Lowe 0.1 - AA



Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#379092) #
I don't mind other guys dancing with my girl
That's fine, I know them all pretty well
But I know sometimes I must get out in the light
Better leave her behind with the kids
They're all right
Kelekin - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#379093) #
Yes, my bad UO, Donaldson counts too. I don't recall people being so down on the extensions though, in general I thought AA's contract management was quite good.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#379094) #
The response here to the Encarnacion extension in July 2012. looks to have been near universal approval. Bautista was a more complex case. It seemed like the whole season was spent wondering if his breakout was for real, and if so what to do about it. Early on, there were many voices suggesting that he should be traded before he turned back into a pumpkin. He didn't,  and by the end of the season the discussion here had switched to whether or not to try to extend him. And as it happened, the team did extend him for what turned out to be a bargain considering what they received in return.
ayjackson - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#379095) #
Vlad is up to a .820 OPS. I think I suggested an .810 over/under for the season a few days ago. That obviously needs restating.

.860?
Spifficus - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#379096) #
It was .805. I took the over

... when he got to .803

#profilesincourage
R Romero Vaughan - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#379097) #
I’m just not sure that ‘lucky’ can work when you are in the AL East with smart (TB, NYY) and hugely moneyed (NYY, BOS) franchises .

To the outside observer it looks like this FO is following all the same tactics as the smarter teams - just executing it worse .

When BOS NYY and TB have realised they weren’t genuine contenders they made great trades and got great assets - the Jays have managed to extract very little from a WS caliber roster when the inevitable downswing occurred - that’s pretty bad. Maybe one or two of these come off but easy returns are poor on last years acquisitions.

Ok isn’t really good enough here. And not persuading the powers that be to sell a year earlier looks fairly catastrophic right now.

Further, many of the FA / contract claps have just been bad so far. The Morales contract showed a complete and utter misreading of the market for that type of player - which worries me the most. Add to that the completely unneccesary and restrictive Grichuk deal and you just start to wonder about evaluation and risk / return analysis.

Obviously they get more time but I think it’s right to ask questions given the lack of significant early wins and the scale of the task in Front of us here

PeterG - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#379099) #
If one is going to rag on the Grichuk deal (which still has a chance to be ok), one should also praise the Gurriel deal which is team friendly in the the extreme. Even if Grichuk deal is a disaster, which it isn't, the Gurriel deal more than evens it out.

Yes, there have been some misreadings of the market but that is true of almost every GM or team at some time. You could say that the Yankees and Twins very much misread the recent deadline market for example. I think the Jays read it correctly in the Stroman deal. Had they waited, the return would have been less as was evident in the Greene deal for example. Teams were totally reluctant to give up prospects of consequence. In fact, the Mets were the only team that did other than the one from SD and Cinci.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#379100) #
I'm not a fan of the "good move A" evens out "bad move B" approach. I mean, you can do this ad infinitum. For example,

Signing Gurriel was good, which offsets

Questionable Grichuk extension, which still doesn't offset

Trading Olivares (future center fielder with seven years of control) for Solarte (negative WAR player)

Etc., etc.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#379101) #
As a side note, I agree that the Grichuk extension still has a chance to work out. I wasn't in favour of it, but it's not that onerous in the big picture and he could still become an everyday healthy RF who posts around 1.5 to 3 WAR per year (with a slight chance of more than that).
greenfrog - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#379102) #
On a different tangent altogether, it would be interesting if both Sanchez (Houston) and Stroman (NYM) both ended up in the 2019 postseason. The Mets are only 3.5 GB in the WC race, and they have a starting rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Stroman, Wheeler, and Matz.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#379103) #
I would like the Jays to drop guys like Devon Travis, Clayton Richard & Clay Buchholz whom I don't see as players on the 2020 team and claim some players on waivers who might be useful & controllable next year - more Wilmer Font types.
Kelekin - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#379104) #
Yeah, I thought I would consider picking up Oscar De La Cruz off waivers. There were at least 3 or 4 interesting players put on waivers post-trade deadline.
PeterG - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#379105) #
Travis and Buchholz are on 60 day IL so dropping them would not create roster room. I don't think either will ever play for Jays again. If there is someone team would like to claim, Richard can be dropped.
Magpie - Sunday, August 04 2019 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#379106) #
I just realized what day it is. Thirty years ago tonight? Thirty? Gulp.

The Dome had only opened a couple of months before and I would get to see an awful lot of games there, mainly because they were paying me to go. I was often in the house during Roger Clemens' two year reign of terror and Roy Halladay's entire Toronto career. I have still never seen a pitcher as dominant as Stieb was that night.
vw_fan17 - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#379112) #
So, I guess I'm one of those who has been labeled as being "vitriolic" in their comments about Shapiro/Atkins.

I don't doubt they are nice / sincere people. I just haven't seen much of any evidence that they have the first clue (or luck?) trading from ANY kind of position of strength. Maybe they're good at drafting - I am not qualified to judge that. But it seems like they are very inept at roster management and/or actually assessing talent coming back in trades. It's not that GMs need to be right all the time - and you win some, you lose some. It just seems to me, when it comes to trading, they lose most, quite obviously. And they lose players by not timing transactions well, and then they need more of the type of players they just lost.

And then, when they prattle on about "the will to win" and "this is exactly the player we wanted" when it really feels like they lost the trade badly (again, sigh), then it gets really frustrating.
I wish them well as individuals - I just wish it was somewhere else than in an executive position with the Jays..
Glevin - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 02:39 AM EDT (#379113) #
"I am not qualified to judge that. But it seems like they are very inept at roster management"

These are the moves that people got outraged at this year: Releasing Tulo, letting Bergen and Romero go in Rule V, losing Smith and Ramirez, putting Pompey through waivers instead of giving him a chance. All of these were the right moves or at the very least, didn't matter at all. This is why I end up defending this front office so much. There are so many criticisms that make no sense mixed in with the ones that do.
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:14 AM EDT (#379114) #
I wonder whether the front office’s communication style has something to do with how much they are being criticized. Irrespective of how well they are actually doing their job — and they have achieved a lot in some respects — they have not endeared themselves to Toronto/Canadian fans, for the most part.
Glevin - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:00 AM EDT (#379115) #
"I wonder whether the front office’s communication style has something to do with how much they are being criticized. Irrespective of how well they are actually doing their job — and they have achieved a lot in some respects — they have not endeared themselves to Toronto/Canadian fans, for the most part."

Sure but also some of this has been manufactured.The narrative of "Cleveland outsiders coming in and destroying what Canadians built" has been pushed since about day 1. Partly because Beeston has a lot of friends in the media. Partly because outrage sells papers. I mean, there are tons of examples but look at this idiocy from Simmons...

"Had Mark Shapiro been in charge of the Blue Jays in the early years, you probably wouldn’t know the names Beeston or Ash. They wouldn’t exist. They would not have been given the opportunity to flourish.

They weren’t cronies from Cleveland. They weren’t old buddies or pals.

They were just hard-working Canadians, rewarded for their success."
scottt - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#379117) #
At least a lot of the criticism comes from the media.

Also, I think Stroman should not talk about the Toronto FO while he's in a Mets uniform, unless it's to compare the Mets with the Jays. Sanchez and Biagini are in the best possible place for their career and while Stroman will most likely miss the playoffs, he's now competing on a level field with Syndergaard and Degrom. He needs to focus on that.

The upcoming NYY series should be interesting. The Yankees injuries keep piling and they haven't added any depth.
Part of me would like the Jays to throw the next 3 games in Tampa to make things interesting. The Sogard improved Rays just completed a second sweep.

uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#379119) #
Are we now pretending that the criticism is limited to Toronto media and fans? We know that isn't true.

And this narrative flipping is an interrsting tactic but it sure seems to me the knee-jerk defenders of this FO have more soul searching to do at this point the its critics do.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#379120) #
Yes we're just pretending Ugly. Thanks though for pointing out the error of our ways and showing us the truth. Saved me from doing that soul searching you were talking about.
scottt - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#379121) #
All I'm saying is that I"m reading a lot of criticism from the media.
The comments I read are fairly balanced.
NY media isn't  happy about the Yankees standing pats at the deadline.
I'm not exposed to much media from other cities unless the Jays happen to be playing there.

For example, the Baltimore crowd was pretty funny yesterday. Lots of attendance from folks at a "My LIttle Pony" convention, including a huge Australian delegation. You can't make this stuff up.

For the record, I'm not happy about the Sanchez trade.
I think part of it was reducing salaries why trying to make it looks like something else.
Part of it was getting rid of a Boras client.
This year's record doesn't matter. We'll have to wait until next year to see what Sanchez does in Houston, but I thought Stevenson was very interesting.

Overall though, the whole thing is a minor annoyance.
Not having Sanchez just means they have to sign a guy like Happ, Estrada or Jaime Garcia to back up Shoemaker.


Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#379122) #
the knee-jerk defenders of this FO

Who generally see themselves as saying "wait a minute, it's early days, let's see how it all turns out" as knee-jerk opponents of the front office denounce Atkins, Shapiro, and all their works as soon as they do anything.

Cannon to the left, cannon to the right...
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#379123) #
Why not take to the streets with a BB poll question?

After the trade deadline, how would you rate the front office's overall performance since taking over in 2015?

a) A
b) B
c) C
d) D
e) F
Mike D - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#379124) #
The front office has not been lucky, but I do believe there is something to luck being the residue of design.

If the Toronto media was completely neutral about the front office, they would still be unpopular, considering:

* their unsentimental jettisoning of popular players
* receiving returns described by the neutral MLB media as puzzling, awful, or at best lukewarm or roughly fair
* a number of moves working out worse in hindsight than was anticipated at the time
* putting the worst team in nearly 40 years on the field in 2019
* also punting at least 2020 and maybe beyond
* the success of AA's clubs since his departure
* zero progress on grass
* zero progress on Rogers Centre renos or game ops - this was supposed to be Shapiro's bailiwick, and all he's done is...shake down the taxpayers of Pinellas County, Florida?

Are all of these problems fair, in the sense of each and every problem being clearly, directly and solely the fault of Atkins and Shapiro? Definitely not, but isn't that true of every unsuccessful job performance? I'm sure Alen Hanson had a hard-hit ball or two right at a defender, but that doesn't mean he should have never been sent down.

These are qualified baseball executives acting in good faith, but "let's all just wait and see" can't be a get out of jail free card. For example, there is no doubt, none whatsoever, that they are perfectly OK with having sub-.300 OBPs in the everyday starting lineup. They just gave Grichuk a lengthy extension to do just that, and they have acquired a number of such out-machine hitters. I just fundamentally disagree with that, and that's reason enough for me to give up on them.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#379125) #
they are perfectly OK with having sub-.300 OBPs in the everyday starting lineup.

i don't much like it either, but the 2018 Boston Red Sox had three such players in their lineup. And they did OK, as I recollect. And it's hard to see bringing Jose Bautista back in 2017 as anything but a sentimental sop to the fan base.

They wasted too much time. They took too long to tear it all down. It probably should have been done after 2016, it definitely should have been done after 2017.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#379126) #
Why not take to the streets with a BB poll question?

There's a valuable old piece of baseball wisdom that goes "if you listen to what the people in the stands are saying, you're going to end up sitting with them."

That's why.
Nigel - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#379127) #
As someone who’s lived in NY, SF and now Vancouver when those cities had and have poorly performing sports teams, the idea that this FO has had a poor run from a biased local media is hard to see. I’m in constant awe at how well this FO has been treated (relatively speaking) by the media. Of course, a huge chunk of those who regularly follow the team are employed by Rogers. I think that this FO has pretty much had a pass (or treated more fairly depending on your perspective) relative to those in other places.
Mike D - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#379128) #
Clever point about the Red Sox, Mags, but...

- something tells me Devers is a good bet to get on base for the rest of his Boston tenure
- Nunez was a part-timer with an excellent OBP kind-of platoon partner in Holt, and he was a good on-base guy until last year
- their catchers hit like crap last hear, no doubt
- the '18 Red Sox were first in the league in OBP, and the '19 Jays are second-last
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#379129) #
I find there is often a high correlation between team OBP and team performance. Ignore at your own risk, GMs.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#379130) #
I just figured most teams would have at least one of those guys, and I already knew how bad the Boston catchers were last year. The others were a surprise, though!

I've been looking a little at Jeff Luhnow's work in Houston. The situation is quite different - Luhnow inherited a teardown well underway (they'd just lost 106 games, they'd just traded Hunter Pence) and the rebuild was already in progress (Dallas Keuchel, George Springer, Jose Altuve were already in the system.) Is that where the Jays are at now?

Anyway, Luhnow got rid of everyone making more than $5 million dollars. There was only one really big contract among them (Carlos Lee) and it had only one year left. In the process, he got rid of almost everyone over the age of 30. As you'll recall, J.A. Happ and Brandon Lyon were sent here. We were all happy just to see the last of Francisco Cordero.

They went and lost 107 games in 2012. That must have been painful. And then they lost 111 games in 2013. I would think that was especially painful, because Luhnow had released J.D. Martinez in spring training. He'd just selected Brady Aiken with the first overall pick in the draft, one year after using the first overall pick on Mark Appel, which took a bit of the shine off getting Carlos Correa with the first overall pick. (Because even really good and successful GMs do stuff that just doesn't work.) The first real signs of progress came in 2014, when they only lost 92 games. Woo-hoo, said the folks of Houston, after the sixth consecutive losing season.

I don't expect that to happen here because there is no way anyone is going to stand for losing 324 games in three years. But what we have here is a teardown and a complete rebuild. It may work, it may not - but it's going to take a little time. Let's not be like... oh, Leafs fans?
Gerry - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#379132) #
I think the trading strategy of this FO, whether by intention or forced on them, has contributed to their low opinion polls.

When you trade assets you usually get back either a flawed upper level prospect or a high risk lower level prospect. You can dream on the lower level kid, you can't dream as easily on the Derek Fishers or Anthony Kay's. More often than not this FO has traded for the flawed upper level prospect. That doesn't give the fans much to dream on.

The FO is probably dreaming on these guys and as Magpie has pointed out, they hope that some percentage of these projects turn into value. But when you don't know which of the long shots will break through you can't focus on any one of them. It's much easier to get excited about Simeon Woods Richardson, even though he could turn out to be as flawed as Kay.

In addition to that trading strategy, another issue is Ross Atkins inability to get anyone excited about players. I believe he acknowledged his communication issues in a recent interview. His delivery is so flat, and so rote, that you tune out. AA and JPR could easily talk up prospects and players and give you hope. Atkins has a tougher time delivering excitement through his words.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#379133) #
It would also be most unseemly for me to complain about anything that happened at the trading deadline. Just over a month ago I assessed the players the Jays might put on the market: including Sogard, Sanchez, Hudson, Biagini, and Phelps and had the same thing to say about each and every one of them:

You take whatever you can get.

I said the same thing about Smoak, Galvis, and Giles who didn't go anywhere in the end. As I recollect, Giles was the only one who inspired much disagreement. In the case of Sanchez, I offered he "might be fixable, but I don't think the Blue Jays have anyone around who can fix him. Which makes him pretty useless here."

Stroman was the hard case, and in my mind it depended on the kind of extension he was looking for. "He's not an ace, and if he's looking to get paid like one..."

Anyway - I can't go back on all that now! That's taking the test after you know the answer, or something like that.
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#379134) #
Even if you accept the argument that the Jays should have taken whatever they could get for Sanchez and Biagini, why give away Stevenson for free?
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#379135) #
Ross Atkins inability to get anyone excited about players.

There's that, and he was also in the very weird position of having to talk down his most promising young player because he needed to justify keeping him in the minors without telling the truth about it. (Which was the right thing to do, but if he'd told the truth about it, there would have been a union grievance and hell to pay.) So he ends up talking down Vladimir Guerrero and talking up Derek Fisher. Not a good look.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#379136) #
Even if you accept the argument that the Jays should have taken whatever they could get for Sanchez and Biagini, why give away Stevenson for free?

I've been getting the impression, from something somebody wrote somewhere, that the whole point of the trade was not getting Derek Fisher but rather moving Aaron Sanchez. Biagini and Stevenson were required in order to get the Astros to agree to take Sanchez off the Jays' hands.

I don't know if that's true, and I sure as hell hope it isn't. That's just an ass-backwards way to go about making trades, as I've probably said once or twice or thirty times.
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#379138) #
As I’ve previously noted, the Jays could have had a dirt-cheap and quite possibly very good two-way outfield of Gurriel, Stevenson, and Olivares for many years to come. But they gave away one of those outfielders for the privilege of overpaying Solarte (negative WAR) for a year and they gave away the other one in the “puzzling” Fisher trade.
bpoz - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#379139) #
You are probably right about the OBP number greenfrog. I did a little checking not a lot. I could not find any chart comparing OBP to winning %. We all know that RS/RA is a major factor in winning %. I checked anyway and it is. It is a good number when SSS is eliminated.

M Trout has fantastic numbers. So much better than every current Jay. Ex-Jay E Sogard is putting up very good numbers this year but not as good as M Trout. So I expect the 2 players coming back are quite good.

"Just so that we don't have any misunderstanding about Sogard/Trout. I FIRMLY AM SURE THAT Trout is a MUCH MORE SUPERIOR player than Sogard. CURRENTLY IMO."

Please note the CAPITAL letters and the quotation marks. I am not yelling/shouting. Just trying to be clear and respectful about what I am trying to say because I don't know how to defend the above statement.
scottt - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#379140) #
You can't compare Houston and Toronto.
Houston went through what Baltimore is going through today.
Where are all those first overall draft picks in the Jays system?

It's only been 7 games for their guy,  Bo Bichette, but he's hitting .400 with an OPS of 1.2.
It's too bad Guerrero didn't start like that. Maybe he needed more time in the minors.
Still in the last 30 days, Guerrero has been in 23 games and he's hitting .367 with a .418 OBP..

I find it funny when it comes to people not standing for losing teams in Toronto.
I'd be curious to know what percentage of season ticket holders have bought a ticket with their own money the last time the Leafs won the cup. Me? I was born shortly after that.

85bluejay - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#379141) #
I was high person on Olivares on this site and I don't remember any complaints (except from me) when Olivares was traded - also, maybe Olivares & Stevenson don't amount to much - time will tell.
Marc Hulet - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#379142) #
The funny thing is that I can remember talking to Atkins about prospects when he was with the Indians and he spoke very well and was enthusiastic, etc.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#379143) #
maybe Olivares & Stevenson don't amount to much

Just looking at their birth certificates, I would think it's unlikely either one is going to be a star, although Olivares really seems to have taken a step forward this year (he appears to have learned the strike zone, and not all of them to.) I'm not sold on Stevenson ever becoming a major league regular.

But don't mind me - I always think that the folks out there who actually pay serious attention to prospects tend to fall in love just a little too easily. I'm pretty cynical about every prospect until they actually do something in the majors. Over-compensating, no doubt. I admit it freely!
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#379144) #
These are my Batter’s Box posts at the time of the trade:

“Law’s take:

keithlaw
@keithlaw
·
56m
nice pickup for Padres, Olivares was roughly #15 in the Jays' system, power/speed guy who might stick in CF”

...

“The prospect the Padres acquired from the Jays for Upton, Hansel Rodriguez, had a solid 2017 in his age-20 season in A ball (3.21 FIP, 10.3 K/9 IP, 3.1 BB/9 IP). San Diego is no doubt hoping for similar progress from Olivares in 2018. He seems to be a decent return in exchange for another early-30s position player with limited market value (and who may be on the decline).”

...

“Travis Sawchik's take on the Solarte/Olivares trade: "Interesting deal! I like it for the Padres. I don’t think the Blue Jays should be adding, rather, shedding and thinking about building around the Vlad/Bo future core"

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/travis-sawchik-fangraphs-chat-44/

There are a couple of other articles on the trade on Fangraphs as well.”

...

“Assuming he can hit enough to play in the majors, Olivares could be particularly valuable in spacious Petco. Here are a few comments about him:

From BA's Dec. 20 chat on the Jays' system:

Gerry (Toronto): How much did Edward Olivares stock rise this season? Are there flaws in his game or is he a 5 tool player?

Ben Badler: It definitely went up. Good combination of speed and hard contact from a center fielder with plus speed, plus arm, plus bat speed. It's a high-risk approach because he's not a selective hitter and he's very pull-oriented, so that's probably only going to get tested once he hits the upper levels, but he has some of the best raw tools in the system and the performance he put together with it at least in Low-A was encouraging.

Brett (Stratford, On): With the lower minors filled with high risk players, who are 2 or three names to look out for.

Ben Badler: Noda and Olivares are the two guys outside of the Top 10 to watch there. ...

Per Wayne Cavadi on minorleagueball.com:

Olivares is the real get of the deal. Part of a Lansing team that had superstars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Olivares big 2017 got somewhat buried.

Olivares was signed out of Venezuela before the 2014 season. He played his first three years in Rookie ball, showing signs of life, but never exhibiting top notch stuff. Turning 21 entering his first year at full-season ball, Olivares exploded in Low and High-A.

He slashed .277/.330/.500 in Lansing before a late season promotion to the Florida State League. The right-handed slugger has a quick bat, but is mostly pull power, launching 15 of his 17 home runs to left field. He has well-above average speed, and combined with that power, he was able to add in 26 doubles and nine triples. Olivares was good on the base paths, swiping 18 of 25 stolen base attempts.

Obviously, Olivares isn’t a perfect prospect. Again, using only his time in the Midwest League, he only struck out 17.7 percent of the time, but he also only walked 4.7 percent of the time. Those numbers were more balanced in the FSL, but he also only played 19 games at the level. His Lansing numbers are more indicative of his previous time in Rookie ball. He also could possibly add some more power if he can bring his ground ball rate (44.2 percent) down a bit. He makes his fly balls count with a 12.9 percent home run to fly ball ratio.

Watch this home run. You can see how wiry he is, which makes his power more impressive (and shows there is likely more coming should he continue to progress as he did this year). He has a little noise pre-swing, but when he sees his pitch, he unloads quickly and powerfully (video courtesy of Blue Jays Prospects on YouTube).

Olivares also excels defensively. His speed gives him the range and he has the arm to play all three outfield positions. That gives him the floor of a fourth outfielder and the ceiling of an everyday centerfielder.

Still just 21, Olivares looks like he has room to grow. He’s 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, so a reduced ground ball rate and some added muscle, the Padres are looking at a future 20/20 player who makes pretty good contact. This is a great get for the Padres, and one the Blue Jays were able to make thanks to some depth at the position.”
92-93 - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#379145) #
An international signing shouldn't even enter the conversation when discussing the front office's decision to extend a mediocre outfielder at the market rate nearly two years before they had to make a decision on his future. When the Jays extended Bautista and Encarnacion they had each already flashed elite ability, and even before breaking out they showed much better control of the strike zone than Grichuk, who would have to become a completely different hitter to provide real value on the extension. The Grichuk contract was unnecessary at the time and looks even worse today with Gurriel emerging as a corner OF and the team being stocked with Grichuk-lite candidates for the other corner. Heck, Teoscar has been a better hitter during his Jays tenure than Grichuk. If he happens to bust out again during the last two months of the season the Jays should capitalize on the opportunity to flip him for some longer-term value.
Thomas - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#379146) #
I don't know if that's true, and I sure as hell hope it isn't. That's just an ass-backwards way to go about making trades, as I've probably said once or twice or thirty times.

Here's an idea: if the point of the trade was to get rid of Sanchez, why don't you simply not tender him a contract in the offseason? If the point of the trade was to get rid of Sanchez and Fisher was more of a body in return, than a player the front office desired, why not simply ride out Sanchez for two more months, see if you see any positive signs, and non-tender him if you don't?

I know it's small potatoes compared to the Stroman and Sanchez deal, but the Phelps deal puzzles me. Atlanta got a better return for two months of Chris Martin than Toronto did for a year and two months of David Phelps, with a $1 million salary no less.

Toronto got 1 40 FV prospect for Phelps. San Francisco got 2 40 FV prospects and a 35 FV prospect for a year and two months of Sam Dyson (as best as I can tell he's a FA after 2020). And Dyson, who is arbitration eligible and earning $5 million this year, will likely be paid $6 or $7 million next year.

I have a hard time believing Toronto couldn't have gotten a similar return from a budget-conscious team like Minnesota that was clearly looking to upgrade it's pen. Alternatively, maybe Toronto could have packaged Phelps with Stroman and gone hard after a top return from Minnesota, who has stated publicly they wished Atkins had come back to them and given them a chance to beat New York's offer (and I'm inclined to believe this comment is genuine and not some form of ass-covering, given that it's about one player and it's not something I've heard Minnesota's front office say before).

As others have said, it seems like this front office zeroes in on their guy, and become determined to acquire that player rather than looking for alternate offers (SWR with New York, at least once it became clear the Yankees wouldn't trade Deivi Garcia; it seems like Hatch with Chicago, etc..).

Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#379147) #
Well yeah. In my mind, the only valid reason for the trade is because you really, really like Derek Fisher.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#379148) #
Atlanta got a better return for two months of Chris Martin

You mean Texas, right?
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#379149) #
The FO probably likes Fisher because even if he has only a slight chance of being good, he also has a slight chance of being a star at very low cost (cost always being a prime consideration with Rogers).
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#379150) #
Come to think of it, Anthopoulos trading Kolby Allard for two months of Chris Martin is an awful lot like when he traded Jeff Hoffman for two months of LaTroy Hawkins. Though I think there were some other guys in that last deal. :-)
Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#379151) #

Oh come on. You make them sound like the Rays or Marlins. Cost is a factor for all teams - it just carries different weighting depending on the team and their position in a win cycle. At this point they've got to be paying more for players to not play for them than their current roster (I'm pretty sure this is not factual, merely an exaggerated statement for emphasis). Do you disagree with their moves? Hell, I do with some. Are you frustrated they're losing? Sure. Are they treating payroll different than any other team? No. If anything, they're probably near the top of the dead-money lists.

Nigel - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#379152) #
I suspect the FO does like Fisher - it’s about the 3rd attempt at acquiring exactly the same player (good athleticism, power potential, lousy strike zone control, low OBP, poor defence). It’s pretty clear that this is a “type” of flawed prospect that they like and think can be turned around. So far, no success. My concerns with the FO in their “flawed prospect” acquisitions have usually been focused on their lack of concern about defence and to a lesser extent team OBP. I’d like to see more balance in their player acquisitions - but maybe they are just following the industry in this regard.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#379153) #
I don't know that the Jays have much dead money left. There's the $16 million to Russell Martin, but that's just for this year. I'm not clear on Tulowitzki's status. The Jays would still be paying him if the Yankees had released him. But it says he "voluntarily retired." I have trouble believing he'd actually walk away from more than $20 million dollars. Anyone know the deal there?
greenfrog - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#379154) #
Not for long. The team has very little in the way of future financial commitments. And surely a rebuilding team with a modest payroll doesn’t need to package prospects along with its few remaining modestly-priced veterans in order to support the rebuild. It would be more effective to keep the prospects (Stevenson) and pay out the remaining salaries for Sanchez and Biagini, would it not? But the Jays did not do that.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#379155) #
their lack of concern about defence

Yeah, is that a thing with first time GMs? I definitely remember going through the same thing during the first few years of the Anthopoulos regime (because I remember upbraiding him for it!) , and as far as I can recall it wasn't something Ricciardi seemed much interested in either.
bpoz - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#379156) #
Tellez needs to come back up before he burns his 2nd option.

I say that even though I don't really know why he was sent down. My guess was to give Smoak & Sogard full time playing time so that they could be traded.
bpoz - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#379157) #
Martin, Tulo and Morales gone with the Jays paying most of their 2019 salary. 90% or 85% ???

Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#379158) #
Given that they paid some of Stroman's salary, why are we assuming that Stevenson was acting as a cookie for Houston taking on Sanchez's salary? And being less cheap now (with Stroman and the dead money) so they could be more cheap in the future doesn't make a lot of sense. I'd say financial flexibility is more what you're looking at. They look the same if you want them to, but they aren't.

As for Tulo, Magpie, I'm pretty sure that became set in stone the moment they released him, retirement or no.
JB21 - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#379159) #
Scroll down to 2019 Retained Salaries, defined as "Leftover salaries from players who have been traded or released, or buyouts for declined options."

It's 60M worth.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#379160) #
It's 60M worth.

Which would indeed be more than the active payroll, but the Jays aren't paying the whole $60 million, surely? They wouldn't be paying the entire salary of everyone they traded away.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#379161) #
Never mind!
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#379162) #
It was "leftover" that threw me. The $1 million to Daniel Hudson isn't leftover. It's what they've already paid him.
soupman - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#379163) #
ShaPRo is plenty lucky. he has a career because the expos fire sale gave him enough wins in one trade to be competitive in the AL Central for half a decade.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#379164) #
the expos fire sale

Trading prospects for an ace starter is not a fire sale. The Expos were trying to do exactly the same thing as what Anthopoulos did with the trade for David Price.
Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#379166) #
Also, putting his success at the feet of that one trade ignores the the ones for Hafner and Choo, to name a couple. That luck also swung both ways, with the stagnation of Andy Marte, which nobody saw coming.
hypobole - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#379167) #
Yeah, is that a thing with first time GMs? I definitely remember going through the same thing during the first few years of the Anthopoulos regime

Early in the 2013 season, I posting something like "I thought defensive indifference was a a late stage baseball play rather than a team building strategy."
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#379168) #
The Expos were in second place with a 41-36 record when they made the trade for Colon. Bartolo did just fine in Montreal, going 10-4 in 17 starts. But the team went 42-43 the rest of the way and Colon signed with the Angels in the off-season.

They made their move earlier in 1989, trading three pitching prospects (one of whom was extraordinarily tall and extraordinarily ugly) for Mark Langston at the end of May. At the time they sat in 4th place with a 23-23 record. Langston pitched very well for them (12-9, 2.39) but the team went 48-48 after the trade, finished fourth, and Langston signed with the Angels in the off-season.

Sometimes history just rhymes, doesn't it..
hypobole - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#379169) #
Whoops. Couldn't decide between "remember posting" or simply "posted". I chose grammatical indifference.
Magpie - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#379170) #
Yeah, I remember writing something to the effect that Anthopoulos needed some grizzled old-time baseball guy to spit some tobacco juice on his shoes and growl "defence matters, ya know."
Kelekin - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#379171) #
I think the fact that defensive sabermetrics, even now, are nowhere near the level of offensive ones, surely plays into it. I think things like UZR and RF are right up there with BABIP for 'most misused advanced statistics' in baseball.
bpoz - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#379175) #
Some bad play happened last night on offense and defense. So SRF gave up 3 unearned runs. I think Bo got charged with an error on a defensive mistake.

Offensive mistakes are not chargeable.
soupman - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#379176) #
iirc, the Expos were supposed to be moving at the end of 2002 so they overpaid for Colon for one last push to the playoffs.

the recent trades look the same in principle - i'm not sure how highly rated any of them were at the time - but, i'm not sure the industry as a whole hasn't become better at evaluating talent in the last 20 years.
Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#379177) #
Coming into the year, Phillips was their #1 (20th overall), Sizemore was their #3 (non-100) and Lee was not on their top 10. Overall, that package looks about right, or at least not crazy-town for a year and a half of an ace. I think the issue was more that the Expos, but for the upcoming move, shouldn't have been buyers.
Mylegacy - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#379178) #
Hypobole: You say: "...I posting something like..." Then you say: "Whoops. Couldn't decide between "remember posting" or simply "posted". I chose grammatical indifference."

To which I reply: "Thou has been forgiven. Arise Sir Knight." I chose incoherent, inaccurate, historical misquoting indifference.

Which on reflection, is my second favorite form of indifference. My favorite form of indifference is simply - not to reply.

But - once I'd started to type - it seemed too late to choose it. You know, without (in a manner of speaking) cheating. Sigh.
Spifficus - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#379179) #
Sorry, now that I'm thinking a bit, it wasn't a set move so much as they were basically wards of the state, owned by MLB, with notions of sale-and-move or even contraction dancing around (but nothing set in stone). Thanks, Jeffrey Loria.
uglyone - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#379184) #
"I think the fact that defensive sabermetrics, even now, are nowhere near the level of offensive ones, surely plays into it. I think things like UZR and RF are right up there with BABIP for 'most misused advanced statistics' in baseball."

at the same time, though, you would think that some if not most organizations are combining comprehensive positioning tracking and the exit velo/angle/hangtime data into a pretty good defensive metric
Kelekin - Monday, August 05 2019 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#379189) #
UO - I think the best franchises are ahead of outside the industry on it, but I wonder what value they are placing on them. I would say likely none in the case of the Jays.
Michael - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#379198) #
With the defensive metrics being less mature and more proprietary that is also a place for there to be more value if you have a non-standard take.

In the original moneyball days, OBP was the undervalued asset, so if you were smart you'd acquire that.

With the less sure values if you think you know something others don't about positioning, or reaction, or launch angles, or spin rates, or attitude and willingness to win, or what not you might think you could get an undervalued resource by acquiring that type of resource.

If you are right, you could end up with a terrificly strong team that you acquired and signed for less than market rates.

If you are wrong in your unique view of value, you may end up with a team of clones that you've "winner's curse" to acquire that you think are bargains but actually aren't.

This may have happened with the Jays and may be why a certain type of player seems over represented. Or it could just be a coincidence.
scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#379202) #
Tellez was chasing badly when he was sent down.
Just looking at his last 3 games, 1 single, 1 double, 0 walk, 5 strike outs for an OPS of .556.
I believe the plan was to send him down until they traded Smoak--who was notified they were trying to move him--but all 4 interested teams ended up doing something else, probably because his OPS for the year is only .757.

dan gordon - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#379217) #
Actually, in his last 3 games, Tellez is 5 for 12 with a HR and has an OPS over 1.000
scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#379224) #
I meant his last 3 games in Toronto.
scottt - Tuesday, August 06 2019 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#379229) #
I think it's appropriate that the Expos were an empty shell by the time they became the Nationals.
It's better for fans to grow their own stars and they've had a decent run in the end, although not quite good enough.

Speaking of runs, the Cubs window is closing slowly, after only 1 WS. Their bullpen has not been good this year and Maddon just said that fans talk about "bullpen management" without any knowledge of what factors into each decision and then criticize any move that has a bad outcome.
Cleveland will be in the conversation as long as they have Lindor--another 3 years--and then it's probably tear down time.
Boston shouldn't make the playoff this year. It's going to be interesting to see how they retool. The have nothing in the farm. The payroll is maxed. Brock Holt and Porcello are free agents, Bogaerts has an 8M raise coming up. Betts has one last year of arbitration. So does Bradley.

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