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New pitchers were in most affiliate parks with various levels of success. Alek Manoah, Thomas Hatch, Kyle Johnston, Juan De Paula, Sem Robberse and Yaifer Perdomo, all in their first years with the Jays, started for their respective teams. One exception was TJ Zeuch who pitched very well for seven innings on Thursday. His eighth was less fun.

Buffalo 1 Toledo 5

Akron 5 New Hampshire 1

Dunedin 1 Bradenton 4

South Bend Lansing

Everett 5 Vancouver 7

Princeton 1 Bluefield 2

GCL Blue Jays 6 GCL Tigers 3 - 10 innings

DSL Blue Jays 4 DSL D-Backs 0

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

TJ Zeuch had an excellent start, he had a shutout through seven innings. He gave up some softcontact in the eighth and when he left Taylor Saucedo gave up a grand slam, but that doesn't change much. Zeuch registered ten ground ball outs versus six fly balls.

Rowdy Tellez was 3-3 with two doubles and a walk. He has hit much better in AAA, his OPS is 1174.

Anthony Alford had two hits, Jonathan Davis one, Billy McKinney and Dalton Pompey none.

Thomas Hatch had a good start for New Hampshire. He pitched 5.1 innings with six K's. He allowed two runs on four hits.

Cullen Large is still oh for New Hampshire, he was 0-4.

Kyle Johnston made his second start for Dunedin, it was better than his first but that's not saying much. He went 4.2 innings giving up four runs. He did not record a strikeout and walked two.

Another newish pitcher in Lansing, Juan De Paula, was hit around for six runs in just over three innings. He hasn't shown much of anything this year. In Lansing he has more walks than strikeouts and a relatively low K rate.

Alek Manoah progressed up to three innings for this start. They were three hitless innings with seven K's. The one criticism of Manoah is that he used 53 pitches, walked two and hit a batter. But we will take it.

Ronny Brito had three hits for the C's. Brito came over with Andrew Sopko in the Russell Martin trade. Brito is hitting just over 200 as a 20 year old in the Northwest League and striking out over 40% of the time. That is disappointing.

Jose Rivas had four hits in the GCL and scored two runs. Rivas, incidentally one of three Jose Rivas' in the minor leagues, is an 18 year old Venezuelan. Its a decent season for an 18 year old in the GCL.

Orelvis Martinez had just one hit, it was his second home run.

You get bonus points if you knew who Sem Robberse was before yesterday. Sem made his first start in the GCL in his third pro game. Robberse is 17 years old and from the Netherlands. His two innings were shutout ones, with two hits allowed.

Yaifer Perdomo pitched five shutout innings in the DSL with six K's. As you would expect, Perdomo is 17 years old. He has made 12 starts with a 1.25 WHIP and a K per inning.

Three Stars

Third Star - Yaifer Perdomo

Second Star - Jose Rivas

First Star - Rowdy Tellez


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Glevin - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#379429) #
Good to see Rowdy killing it. He'll be back up soon I think. Jays might as well DFA Smoak or at least stop playing him much. Manoah has 12 Ks and 5 baserunners in 6 innings. Not going to pitch much this year but I can see him being a fast riser.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#379433) #
Zeuch pitched a lot better than the 4 earned runs in 7.1 innings would suggest.  He had a 2 hit shutout, with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts after 7 innings.  He led 1-0 at that point.  Toledo loaded the bases with no out in the eighth off him on a "soft line drive", a pop-up and a bunt.  Zeuch got a short fly ball and then gave up a line single to tie up the game.  He left the game at that point and Tyler Saucedo surrendered a grand slam for the margin of victory. 

Early in the game everything was moving down.  After 6 innings, Zeuch had a 10-3 GB/FB ratio.  He gave up a couple of fly balls to centerfield to end the 7th.  At that point, you'd probably want to pull him in the major leagues. 
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#379437) #
Rowdy does seem to have changed his approach since being sent down.  He's pulled the ball 28% of the time, gone up the middle 30% and the opposite way 41%.  While in Toronto, he went the other way only 18% of the time. 
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#379440) #
The problem in Toronto was that Tellez was chasing breaking balls out of the zones while taking lots of fastballs.
I can see where where he got that reputation for having problems hitting fastballs.

Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#379441) #
I don't know about that, scottt.  It seemed to me that he was doing plenty of chasing fastballs in his eyes too.  In the result, he had a lot more success against fastballs than breaking balls.  It may be that the opposite field focus helps with avoiding some chasing of balls outside the zone. 
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#379442) #
One of the things that always made Rowdy such an interesting prospect for me was that he just didn't strike out much for a power hitter. K% was comfortably under 20% his entire milb career.....and stayed there even when his power exploded in A+ and AA.

But unfortunately that has completely changed in the bigs - he's struck out 29% of the time so far in MLB.

So I was hoping that we'd see him stop striking out in AAA after the demotion, but unfortunately he's still swinging and missing too often, and is striking out 25% of the time down there.
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#379445) #
Manoah has struck out 55% of the batters he has faced and is apparently hitting triple digits on the gun.

I'm happy to see that at 21 he's outclassing that level so far. No real need to promote him but myself I'd prefer to see what he could do against A+ competition this year.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#379448) #
I don't know, uo.  In 2018, Rowdy's K rate was 17% in triple A, but he had an IsoP of .155 and his W rate was at 9%.  This time around, the K rate is up to 26%, but the IsoP has skyrocketed to .342 (despite going the opposite way more often) and his W rate is up to 13%.  It's a trade-off, and in this case, I think that it is probably worth it. 

K rates are way up in the big leagues.  If Rowdy can get his to 25-27% with the power still there, the walks will come.  Rowdy reminds me a lot of David Ortiz, and at this stage of Ortiz' career (age 24-25), he was just an average hitter.  Ortiz' K rates were better, but once you adjust for the environment, they weren't that much better. 
scottt - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#379450) #
The guy who threw the first pitch reminds me of David Ortiz.
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#379451) #
yeah mike you're probably right but it's just something i've been dissappointed in his MLB perrformance and was hoping he'd at least cut his Ks down back down in AAA.

one thing I just noticed is that his swinging strike rate isn't actually much different than it was in his last couple milb stops, and his walks are up, so maybe it's actually just him taking more pitches down there that's leading to the higher K rate.....which would actually be an encouraging thing to me, because he was dewfinitely not choosy enough when he was up here.
cascando - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#379452) #
Dunedin is in the playoffs, so perhaps Manoah will get a chance to pitch there before the end of the year.

Although I don't know anything about his overall usage so far this year, including how many inning he pitched in college.
jerjapan - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#379454) #
Rowdy is doing what you hope to see when a young big leaguer gets demoted - his numbers are eye-popping.  A few more weeks in Buffalo isn't the worst thing for him - unless they wanted to do him a favour and sign with a contender, no point in releasing Smoak, as long as he's not taking playing time from the kids when the rosters expand.
Alejandro Kirk seems to have hit a rough patch of late - the first I can recall in his pro career - but overall, such an exciting prospect - he could make Buffalo by the end of next season? 

I did not know the name Yaifer Perdomo, but he's got an outstanding debut season going on and doesn't turn 18 for another week or so. 

Davis Schneider was a name some posters mentioned as a sleeper in his debut 2017 season, and he's continued to show a good eye, with a career .353 OBP.  He was overmatched in Vancouver this year but his OPS is north of a thousand in Bluefield, and is still just 20.  Is he still on people's radar?

uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#379456) #
Chavez Young has slowly but surely recovered from his slow start and is now finally up to league average 100wrc+ on the season.

First 125pa: 8.0b%, 28.0k%, .263babip, .188avg, .071iso, 61wrc+
Second 113pa: 3.5b%, 23.0k%, .293babip, .252avg, .175iso, 113wrc+
Last 128pa: 7.8b%, 18.8k%, .359babip, .293avg, .112iso, 126wrc+

Hopefully he keeps up the more recent performance and can bring his overall line well above 100 by the end of the season, and looks like an interesting prospect again.
bpoz - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#379460) #
The Hi Performance department is doing something in the development of prospects.

At some point (maybe off season) some thought can go into this. Looking at NYM , SRW and Kay I see that they pitched a lot. SRW is 1 month younger than Kloff and SRW has pitched 17 & 87 innings, Kloff 2 & 17. Kay drafted in 2016 and only pitched this year and last, 122 & 107 IP to date. So that is a big difference in the 2 organizations. I don't know which is better.

uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#379470) #
What are the usual prospect criteria again?

130ab and 50ip I think?

Guys who have lost prospect status this year:


Likely to lose prospect status by end of season:


Might lose prospect status:

uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#379472) #
Given the graduations and likely graduations, an early stab at a top 15 or so....


Hmm...don't really know where to go after this....I could see an argument for most any of these guys...Smith, Lopez, Young, Conine, Zeuch, Brown, Morris, Kay, Alford, Murray, Winckowski, Taylor, Wall, Palacios.....probably some other names to.....i'm having a helluva time deciding which of those guys I like the best.

Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#379473) #
My top 10 would be:

uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#379477) #
yeah i could easily go higher with Moreno too like you did, but decided to give a little bit of deference to the high 1st rounders instead. won't argue with that high rank for him at all.

interestingly - SWR is both younger and playing in a higher league than all the guys you have ahead of him aside from Pearson. and his numbers at the previous level were as dominant as any of those older guys', too. and he was a borderline 1st rounder himself.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#379478) #

That's 9, and after that, I have to spend a long time thinking. 
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#379480) #
actually that's 8, mike! :)

but yeah I got stuck after that 8 too....had to really think on it before deciding to include the next 4 guys who were legit excelling while young for their levels...but that was as far as I could go before it all got too muddled.
Mike Green - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#379482) #
It's Friday afternoon, UO- I need a mulligan.  We should be discussing something fun, like trivia, senryu/haiku, nicknames or whatever. 

Bo Bichette arrived
to thunder, lightning and more
but no bat flip yet
Glevin - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#379491) #
Apparently, Groshans is out for year. Disappointing but just hope he’s back completely healthy next season,
LouisvilleJayFan - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#379506) #
Ugh, who didn't see that coming. Of course I'm rooting for Groshans to be amazing, but I just don't get all the love for him considering he only played a month of baseball in 2019. I'd like to see how he does in a full season before buying in too hard.
Gerry - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#379508) #
Alejandro Kirk has two home runs tonight. Newly Promoted Yorman Rodriguez has a double and a triple. Reggie Pruitt has his first hit for Dunedin, a triple.
uglyone - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#379509) #
Ah cool we get to see if yorman's breakthrough year is for real now. Great start
Nigel - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#379510) #
Taylor with another HR in Dunedin as well. He’s now over .800 OPS in the second half (which in the FSL is excellent). I still think he’s a top 20 Jays prospect.
Gerry - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#379515) #
Dalton Pompey fouled a ball off his toe on Tuesday and now is on the 7 day IL.
#2JBrumfield - Friday, August 09 2019 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#379522) #
According to the Northwest League transactions page, Hagen Danner is heading to Vancouver from Lansing.
ayjackson - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#379524) #
Ahh. The toe that broke this camel's back.
Glevin - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 02:32 AM EDT (#379525) #
"Ugh, who didn't see that coming. Of course I'm rooting for Groshans to be amazing, but I just don't get all the love for him considering he only played a month of baseball in 2019. I'd like to see how he does in a full season before buying in too hard."

Obviously, he needs to stay healthy but scouts and numbers both love him so far. The only 19 YO with better numbers in A ball is Kelenic. Kirk was awesome in A ball but was basically the same as Groshans while being a year older. I just hope it's not a long-term injury and is just Jays being cautious. He hit well enough where if he's healthy, he could start in Dunedin next year.

My top-10

It's a solid top-10 but...pitching prospects have biggest bust ratio but catching prospects are second so you need depth there. Jays have spoken explicitly about wanting 3 of the pitchers to become major league starters and I think that's not an unreasonable expectation.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#379531) #
It's encouraging that Shapiro talked about putting Manoah on a fast track.
Still need to perform and avoid injuries, but it's plausible that he reaches in 2021 rather than 2022.

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#379535) #
Yeah, he was hitting .279 in Bluefield, but is only hitting .171 in lansing.
Is someone else heading in the other direction?

scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#379536) #
Nevermind, Didn't scroll back enough. Good start for Yorman Rodriguez.
scottt - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#379544) #
Those injuries must be frustrating enough without being self inflicted.
Grichuk started using that extra guard on his helmet.
Guerrero uses extra padding on his hands.
Fisher ran for cover when Gurriel jumped and hid the ball from him.

jerjapan - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#379545) #
I know he is a one-tool guy, but man, Yo-Rod can really hit.  Before his promotion, he had a 7.1 K% and a WRC+ of 158.  He doesnt walk much or have a ton of power, and his lack of a position has been discussed here before.
Is it possible for a guy with a profile like this - a profile that would have been much more exciting pre-Moneyball - to exceed expectations and make the bigs?
pooks137 - Saturday, August 10 2019 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#379547) #
I know he is a one-tool guy, but man, Yo-Rod can really hit.

Is it possible for a guy with a profile like this - a profile that would have been much more exciting pre-Moneyball - to exceed expectations and make the bigs?

I guess it depends on your definition of a big leaguer, but Robinzon Diaz comes to mind.

Diaz managed 148 MLB PAs over a long AAA career while hovering with a minor league BB rate less than 4% and a notoriously "empty" .300 BA as a prospect coming up and very low K rates.

Diaz also had a cannon as a catcher though which probably bought him more leeway.

dan gordon - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 01:34 AM EDT (#379567) #
Pearson went 6 innings for NH Saturday, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks, with 8 K's. Alford, Urena, Tellez and Kivlehan had 2 hits apiece for Buffalo, where McClelland continued his run of scoreless innings since his promotion to AAA, and Tice picked up his 4th AAA save and lowered his ERA to 1.85 with Buffalo after 1.08 with NH. He's another one of the horde that will have a shot at a job with Toronto next year.
scottt - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#379573) #
Tice doesn't have to be added to the 40 until next year.
McClelland was already exposed last year.
Zeuch and Kay have to protected. Kerby Snead and Bryan Baker as well.
Snead has a WHIP of 1.2 and Baker 1.4. They might decide to expose them.
McClelland has a WHIP of 1.0, so he could easily be taken.
Copping and Isaacs were exposed last year.
In AA Hatch also needs protection and he's a starter.

Espinal can probably be exposed, but Palacios?

I suppose it's only a matter of time before Giles go see Dr Andrews.

dalimon5 - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#379579) #
Can we say that Pearson is the best Blue Jays pitching prospect in the past 2 decades?

Where does he rank in a top 5 all time list and how would Beauxites propose to make such a list? Ugly I need a hand with this list, i'm very curious to see where he lands against Thor etc etc.

I used your lists last year to get a level gauge on Vlad (comparisons to Devers) as well as a new value appreciation on SWR based on your all time top 5 age related seasons at his current level.
uglyone - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#379581) #
Interesting question and I'll give you some comps later but my initial guess based on his AA numbers is that he's probably not the best.
jerjapan - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#379585) #
Pearson's the best one I remember, that's for sure, but I'll leave it to the more prospect-savvy posters to analyze his historical greatness. 

Conine is making me think we could have five 'legacy' guys on the field sooner rather than later - a fascinating story.  Is this coincidence, or an actual strategy? 

I'm not too worried about the names that might get exposed in the rule v this year - I was strongly banging Travis Bergen's drum, and his loss didn't end up the catastrophe that the Fisher trade appears to be ....

Ultimately, I just hope to see some of these eligible relievers in September, although the org might just prefer to leave them off the 40 man entirely and hope nobody picks them rather than risk having to DFA them.  Palacios is interesting, but in a Jonathan Davis kind of way - not much difference between him and Wall to me, and we have a lot of guys ahead of them.  Alford is the guy I want to see getting a real look. 

Pooks, thanks for the thoughts on Yorman, the kid just fascinates me.  Diaz is an interesting comp, although as you note, he had a good defensive rep at a key position.  I'm totally surprised to see that Robinson only got 148 PAs in his career - it felt like he was around forever. 

I know undrafted minor league FAs aren't generally exciting, but Justin Ammons has reached base 29 times in his first 14 pro games.  Get this guy out of rookie ball!
greenfrog - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#379586) #
A few names: Syndergaard and Hutchison (pre-2012) were very good pitching prospects. Sanchez was obviously touted for his stuff (fastball, curveball) but he was never quite able to put it all together and stay healthy, although he had a very good season as a reliever in 2014 and as a starter in 2016. Nicolino had brilliant stats in the low minors but faded when he hit the high minors and the majors.
LouisvilleJayFan - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#379589) #
Wasn't Jose Silva a top 10 prospect?
LouisvilleJayFan - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#379591) #
Here it is: Silva was #10 in 1994.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#379593) #
Kyle Drabek was #14 overall on the BP rankings after being named eastern league pitcher of the year, but his FIP and xFIP numbers were much worse. He is the last pitcher I think in the last ten years to rank as highly as Pearson while in our system, Thor exploded after the trade.
uglyone - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#379597) #
The closest comp I can find for Pearson is Stroman. Statistically, not stuff wise. Though I could probably argue that stroman had a similar overall elite arsenal of pitches, even if they were built differently.

Levels with 10+ip in a season:


Stroman (22.9): 35.2ip, 30.8k%, 6.2b%, 52.9gb%, .348bip, 3.03era, 2.12fip, 2.38xfip
Pearson: ----


Stroman (21.9): 111.2ip, 28.1k%, 5.9b%, 44.5gb%, .300bip, 3.30era, 3.33fip, 2.75xfip
Pearson (22.7): 57.0ip, 28.5k%, 8.1b%, 38.0gb%, .246bip, 2.84era, 2.94fip, 3.09xfip


Stroman: ---
Pearson (22.7): 21.0ip, 46.7k%, 4.0b%, 35.1gb%, .229bip, 0.86era, 1.66fip, 1.11xfip


Stroman (20.9): 11.1ip, 33.3k%, 6.7b%, 48.1gb%, .296bip, 3.18era, 1.47fip, 2.35xfip
Pearson (20.7): 19.0ip, 35.8k%, 7.5b%, 39.5gb%, .158bip, 0.95era, 2.08fip, 2.81xfip

Looks like a bit better command from stroman and weaker contact induced by Pearson. Despite their same baseball ages at the higher levels Pearson is in fact closer to a year older than stro at the higher levels.

The 5'9" Stroman of course was underrated purely due to his size, something the 6'6" 250lbs Pearson doesn't have to worry about.

What's interesting is that statistically speaking, Pearson may not even be the best prospect in the system this year - SWR is probably having a more impressive year given his age...4 years younger than Pearson and only one level below him, with similar underlying numbers.
John Northey - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#379598) #
For Tellez - I figure the Jays will keep him down long enough for him to have a year tacked on for free agency just because at this point, why not? He had 27 days of ML time last year, so now he has been down for nearly a month. Not sure exactly how long he needs to be down for, but leaving him there until September should be a safe bet at this point. No need to call him up early. Let him feel 100% confident that he is too good for AAA and help Buffalo do better.

Smoak will be playing for a contract at this point. 2020's lineup is pretty close to set...
CA: Jansen/McGuire
1B: Tellez (can't see why not with what he is doing in AAA)
2B: Biggio
3B: Vlad
SS: Bo
LF: Gurriel
CF: Fisher
RF: Grichuk
DH: Hernandez
Backups: Drury, Galvis (unless traded), whoever.

McKinney, Urena, Alford, Maile, and others will fight to make the team. I really see nowhere for Smoak.

The pitching is a whole other situation - very, very few slots are locks right now and even the 'kinda sorta' ones (Thornton, SRF) could blow it before seasons end while the 'no question' ones could be traded (Giles).

The front office has a clear problem to address this winter and it should be interesting to see how they handle it. Plus the top prospect list will be redone with so many grads from the minors
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#379600) #
Very insightful and revealing find ugly. I would expect nothing less.
hypobole - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#379601) #
NH faced Top 10 prospect Casey Mize today. Scored 6 runs off him in 4.2 IP, including HR's by Adams and Lundquist.
bpoz - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#379602) #
I feel 2020 will be a lot of feeling out players.

I don't see any close to ready new prospects for the positions. Not everyone has their spot locked up. So I expect additions in the off season.
John Northey - Sunday, August 11 2019 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#379603) #
All these pitchers coming up is a good thing and perfect timing. The hitters should be well established and whoever is going to flop from the current crew should be clear in a year or two while the pitchers are all coming in.

Under 25's on the current 40 man who had a shot in the majors this year...
19: Elvis Luciano (IL)
22: Yennsy Diaz (1 game, what was the purpose of that?)
23: Sean Reid-Foley 194 ERA+ so far in 26 2/3 IP.

Ryan Borucki, Jacob Waguespack, Thomas Pannone, and Trent Thornton are all 25.'s top Jay prospects have it as
Nate Pearson (22 in AA), Alek Manoah (21 A-SS), Anthony Kay (24 in AAA), Eric Pardinho (18 in A), Simeon Woods Richardson (18 in A+). Of those only Manoah I'd rank as near 0% chance of reaching next year. Pardinho is low (10% at best), the rest I wouldn't be surprised to see in Toronto in 2020 (SWR they might play it safe with, although going from A+ to the majors the next season has happened in Jays history a few times from Stieb to Osuna).

Given the expected window is 2021-2025 (after which the current crew of hitters will almost all be free agents) the smart move would be to get as many of these kids up next year in May/June as possible (assuming solid performance). Kay I'd watch closely as he could start next year in the majors if he shows enough this month and in spring.

I expect the Jays to do dumpster diving for starters/long relievers to fill the gap until a few kids are ready for prime time (hopefully May/June). Matt Shoemaker should be a prime person in that equation - traded mid-season for players no lower than AA assuming he can stay healthy. Clay Buchholz might be signed again to see if he can do that too. Guys currently here like Font and Gaviglio might be prime trade candidates in 2020 too, thus getting lots of April/May innings.
dan gordon - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#379605) #
Pretty nice game for Winckowski on Sunday. 5 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K, 0 ER. ERA now 2.56 in Dunedin. He probably starts in NH next year, and if all goes well, he could be in Buffalo sometime before season's end. He's just 21, and doesn't get the notice that Pardinho, Pearson, Manoah, Richardson are getting, but he's an excellent prospect. Picked in the 15th round, and not all that great in his 1st 2 pro seasons, but last year and this year, he's been outstanding. K:BB ratio of 171:54 in 2018/19, with ERA under 3.00 at each of Vancouver, Lansing and Dunedin. The only blemish I would say is he didn't strike out many in his 1st 2 games with Dunedin, but the K rate has picked back up since then.

Yorman Rodriguez had a single, double and triple to lift his average over the .500 mark with Lansing. Too bad he has no power, no speed and no position, because he sure can hit. Conine had 2 hits including a HR and the obligatory 2 strikeouts. His slash line is now .291/.366/.599/.965. In 262 plate appearances, he has walked, fanned or hit a HR in 143 of them, or 55%.

Interesting game for Anthony Kay with Buffalo. He went 6 innings and allowed only 1 hit, and struck out 8, but he walked 5. Only 1 unearned run. Santiago Espinal is struggling in his fist 7 games with Buffalo, to the tune of .115/.115/.192/.308
scottt - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 07:06 AM EDT (#379606) #
The don't really need Maile. McGuire has an option left but Riley Adams should be ready for Buffalo and they can use him or the org guy as backup. Kivlehan is hitting .278 with an OPS of .937 in Buffalo.
scottt - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#379607) #
Additions are nice but not when the bench is already filled with out of options prospects who haven't had a chance yet.
Those are the guys left to feel out. Drury is already penciled him as the even keeled veteran.

Pitchers. Just pitchers.

uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#379608) #
I still wouldnt expect anything more than one or two "opportunistic" pickups a la buchholz or shoemaker.

Too many guys they want to give a looksee to still that will start the year at least as high as AAA.

Merryweather 28

Borucki 26
Thornton 26
Waguespack 26
Pannone 26

Kay 25
Sopko 25

SRF 24
Zeuch 24
Perez 24
Logue 24

Pearson 23
Diaz 23
Murray 23
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#379610) #
I hope the Jays take a page from the Rangers signings of Lynn and Minor and target at least one mid-tier SP, someone like a Kyle Gibson.
bpoz - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#379612) #
There is practically no time left for any players to prove any thing in the minors this year.

We should know by June 1, 2020 if we are competing. If not competing then we will try many pitchers. It will also be an opportunity to send guys down for control purposes if they show a weakness. SRF and Jansen.
cascando - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#379614) #
Pretty incredible that Minor and Lynn are 1-2 for pitcher WAR in the AL. Minor was signed for 3/28 and Lynn for 3/30.

It's almost impossible that the Jays would have that kind of luck next year, but there is clearly value in that segment of the FA market. I'll be disappointed if they do not sign at least one guy of that ilk. That would still leave plenty of opportunities for the Waguespacks, Pannones, Thorntons and Merryweathers to show that they are MLB pitchers.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#379616) #
The Jays didn't do quite as well as the Rangers, but the 3 yr Happ and 2 yr Estrada FA deals in late 2015 both were successes.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#379623) #
I see Marco Estrada mentioned a bit lately, yet I never see him on the sports highlights so I looked up his stats. He started 5 games for Oakland and fared poorly before going on the DL with back problems. (No surprise) He won't be back pitching until September.
It's sad to see a player go downhill. I'll always remember his superb playoff performances for the Jays.
Glevin - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#379644) #
SWR is dealing. 4 innings, 1 hit, 0 BB, 4Ks. Man, is he an impressive prospect.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#379648) #
yeah FO may have crushed this trade.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#379654) #
SWR finished up after 5 shutout innings, with 1 hit, 1 walk and 5 Ks.  Excellent outing for an 18 year old in the FSL. 
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#379655) #
Is there any reason that Alejandro Kirk couldn't move to third base?
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#379656) #
"Excellent outing for an 18 year old in the FSL"

for a 22yr old, too.
Glevin - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#379658) #
"yeah FO may have crushed this trade."

I don't trust pitching prospects in general so things can still go wrong but this is exactly what you want to see. The team identifies a prospect who is undervalued and pounces. Fans put way too much faith in generic prospect rankings. I mean, would you trade SWR for say, Justin Dunn who is 23 in AA and is ranked 77 on Pipeline? How about DL Hall who is at 64? Brady Singer at 53? Maybe but also maybe not.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#379659) #
Not sure where his FIPs will end up after today, though they're likely improved nicely from his 3.21 and 2.78 coming in. But at least we know that this outing dropped his unsightly 6.23era all the way down under 4 to 3.95.

early times, but he may be our #1 prospect and a top-25 guy overall.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#379663) #
Glevin - I'm with you. Prospect rankings are generally nonsense. They did exactly what I've been hoping they'd do in these kinds of trades - get a little risky in terms of age/level to target some underrated upside that they really like.

the funny thing is if he finishes the year strong in Dunedin this year then he definitely starts next year in AA....which could put him in legitimate, deserved reach of the bigs even at the tender age 19, if he pitches well. And almost certainly puts him in the big league picture by age 20.
bpoz - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#379664) #
I know that this means nothing but NH hit Casey Mize very well yesterday.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#379667) #
SWR turns 19 next month.  If he keeps this up for the remainder of August, he'll probably start in New Hampshire.  But as they say, it's a long way to the top if you want to...
PeterG - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#379672) #
Looking like the Mets were robbed to me. You can make a case for SWR being ranked as high as Pearson (#14), all angles considered. I agree with those who don't think industry rankings mean much, however.
Anthony Kay had a good start as well yesterday.
cascando - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#379675) #
I wouldn't expect them to make a decision on SWR's assignment until next year in spring training. One dominant month (which it isn't yet, but might be) at A+ for an 18 year old doesn't necessarily merit promotion. They might want to let him consolidate his gains there for another month or two before testing him at AA.

Geography could be a factor as well. Even if he seems ready for AA, they might prefer to have SWR spend April in Florida rather than NH.
92-93 - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#379676) #
The radio broadcast had SWR's FB sitting 90-92 today. Is that his typical range?
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#379677) #
Or maybe it was a fair trade, giving the Mets a real playoff shot this year and next, and giving the Jays 12 years of control for 2 pitchers who could be part of their next contention cycle.
ayjackson - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#379678) #
 uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#379648) #

yeah FO may have crushed this trade.

Maybe they Pulled a Homer.
Mike Green - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#379681) #
92-93, there seems to be a wide variance in the velocity reports going back a long time.  Here's one summary.  I'll venture a guess that he dials it up and down, and that the club is fine with that at his age.  I'm guess that he gets most of strikeouts with his curveball. 

It seems that the big thing is consistency in his mechanics.
uglyone - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#379684) #
Events like the futures game are good places to get velo readings becaue they're primarily scouting events and all the scouts are there:

"Woods-Richardson possess a cutter and a fastball that was described as “explosive” with late life. Kay showed off a 96-mph heater in the Futures Game to strike out one of the game’s best prospects in the Chicago White Sox’s Luis Robert. Both prospects are TrackMan darlings, with impressive spin rates on their curveballs. However, a scout noted that Woods-Richardson’s breaking ball could be viewed as a hard slurve."

Baseball savant says:

"After running his fastball up to 95 mph during the summer, Woods Richardson sat more around 89-92 as a senior. But with his size, arm speed and athleticism, it was seemingly only a matter of time until velocity returned, and he spent his pro debut sitting around 93, while touching 97 with a riding fastball."

And I've read mentions of 99s from him too.
Gerry - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#379709) #
Eric Pardinho has been placed on the IL in Lansing.
Nigel - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#379713) #
A lot of the minor league parks use the pre 2016 guns for “in stadium” readings so their readings are probably 2 mph slower than current MLB readings and some guns run by scouting services. 90-92 on the old gun could easily be 92-94 on the new guns.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#379720) #
An Eric Pardinho injury is a big loss to the pitching depth, I would think Tommy John might not be too far away for him.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#379726) #
Don't remember Jays pitchers and prospects having any TJ's in years. They've picked up guys post-TJ, but how many pitchers or prospects have had one the past 5-6 years? I know in 2012/13 Drabek, Hutch, Osuna and Borucki all had TJ.
hypobole - Monday, August 12 2019 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#379728) #
David Paulino cleared waivers and has been released.
Spifficus - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#379733) #
Murphy and Hollen did, though I can't recall when. Other than that, I can't think of any, either.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#379735) #
I think Murphy was recovering from TJ when drafted in 2013. Hollon was injured when drafted also in 2013, pitched a few games then needed TJ.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#379738) #
I was going to mention Justin Maese but in looking him up I see it was his shoulder that was operated on in May,2018. He has only pitched 5 innings in Bluefield this year as he recovers.
scottt - Tuesday, August 13 2019 @ 07:58 AM EDT (#379742) #
David Confesor Paulino originally signed with the Tigers in 2010.
He had TJ in 2013.
He missed half of 2017 after testing positive for a PED.
Nobody seems to know what sent him to the IL this year.
That was just after  he was an honorable mention for player of the week:
(9 IP, W, 12 K, 3 BB, 1 ER, 6 H)
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