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The GCL season is done and they join Bluefield and the DSL Jays on the beach. Dunedin joined them after Thursday's game due to hurricane Dorian. Dunedin finish as Division Champions with no overall FSL champion. I looked at the stat leaders for 2019 for those four teams. In the playoff hunt, Vancouver were eliminated. Buffalo's tragic number is one and Lansing's is two.

Rochester 7 Buffalo 6

Trenton 2 New Hampshire 8

Fort Myers 0 Dunedin 3

West Michigan 3 Lansing 7

Tri-City 13 Vancouver 12 - 11 innings

GCL Phillies 2 GCL Jays 7


Here are some things I noted from Thursdays games:


TJ Zeuch pitched five innings, was charged with two runs, one earned, but didn't strike out anyone. He did have ten ground ball outs to no fly balls. After he left Brock Stewart came in and gave up five runs.

Anthony Alford was 0-3 with two K's. Alford has only a few games left to find some form after his layoff. Alford doesn't want a call-up when he is not in peak form.

Thomas Hatch had eleven K's in seven innings for New Hampshire. Hatch is 24, turning 25 next month. While age is less important for pitchers, Hatch needs to be in AAA to start next season.

Josh Palacios and Riley Adams homered. For Adams it was his tenth home run in AA, if he was there for a full season he could have close to 15. Adams is tied with Forrest Wall for the highest wRC+ on the team. That is good for a catcher. Look for all the catching prospects to move up a level next season.

Simeon Woods Richardson pitched five shutout innings. He finishes with a 2.54 ERA. Another new Jay, Kyle Johnston, who hasn't started well with the Jays, pitched a clean inning. His ERA is over 10.

Demi Orimoloye had a disappointing July after a great June. August started slow but he has picked up some steam over the last ten days. He finished the season with a 2-4 including a double.

Many Dunedin hitters had good seasons with the bat. Alejandro Kirk, Logan Warmoth, Cal Stevenson, Ryan Noda, Christian Williams and Cullen Large all had wOBA's over 350. Only Kirk and Noda ended the season in Dunedin. Williams had that wOBA despite striking out 35% of the time. Kirk only K'd 11%, he walked more than he K'd.

Among the pitchers, Nate Pearson and Joey Murray led the starting pitchers in xFIP. Among the remaining pitchers SWR had an xFIP of 2.87, Maximo Castillo 3.37, and Josh Winkowski 3.85. Dany Jimenez and William Ouellette led the relievers.

Every Lansing starting hitter picked up a hit, Gabriel Moreno had two. Griffin Conine hit his 21st home run. He also struck out three times so that new approach is not quite locked in yet.

Will Robertson went 4-5 and hit his fourth home run. Robertson started slowly but has hit well over the last six weeks. Since the all-star break he is hitting .300 with an OPS over 800. As I noted in previous updates, draft experts noted that Robertson had some swing tendencies that were taught by his college coach but that needed to be eliminated for the pro game. Robertson seems to be progressing in that regard.

Jose Zepeda has not had a good season in the GCL. But he finished well. He hit his first home run of the season in the final game, added a double and drove in four. He finished with a .225 BA and a 730 OPS but he has that home run to give him hope.

Kendall Williams has gone under the radar a little bit but he has been pitching very well in Florida. In this game he went four innings and struck out four. He finishes his season with a 1.13 ERA and has 19 K's in 16 innings. I assume he will follow the Kloffenstein plan and pitch in Vancouver next season at age 19.

Jackxarel Lebron got some notoriety earlier in the season because of his name and his ERA. He conceded six runs in his debut and had an ERA of infinity after that appearance. He settled down and pitched well in his next four games, but then on August 23rd he again surrendered six runs without recording an out. On Thursday he pitched 2.1 shutout innings. In total Jackxarel pitched in seven games. In two of those games he gave up 12 runs without recording an out. In the other five he gave up one run in 10.1 innings with seven K's. He would definitely be the pitcher with the most extremes for the Jays in 2019.

With some teams winding down I thought I would look at some stats. In Bluefield, the leading hitters by wOBA were Ryan Sloniger, Justin Ammons, Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz. They are all in their 20's and none of them will likely be on top 30 lists this off-season. However each of them has a chance to get onto the Lansing roster for 2020 and make a name for themselves there.

In the GCL, the hitting leaders were Orelvis Martinez, Yhon Perez (who I discussed yesterday), Alberto Rodriguez and Jose Rivas. Martinez is 17, the others 18. In the DSL Adrian Montero was the standout hitter at age 17.

On the pitching side in Bluefield, Luis Quinones led in xFIP and K%. He was promoted. Second in K% was 23 year old Adams Cuevas who was also promoted. His numbers were not as good in Vancouver. Alejandro Melean was the best of the teenagers with a 25% K% but his xFIP was 4.85. It was not a strong year for pitching in Bluefield.

In the GCL, Kendall Williams and Michael Dominguez stood out in the K% rankings with 31% and 30% respectively. In xFIP Dominguez fared better with a 2.91, Williams was at 3.41. But the leader among the starters, in a small sample, was Sam Robberse from the Netherlands with a 2.63 xFIP. 17 year old Jiorgeny Casimiri had a 3.01 xFIP and a 24% K%. Casimiri was the second Duth player signed by the Jays. The two best stat pitchers in the DSL were 17 year olds Winder Garcia and Edgar Castro. Garcia put up a 3.16 xFIP and a 27% K rate. Castro had a 2.78 xFIP and a 26% K rate.


3 Stars

3rd star: Simeon Woods Richardson

2nd star: Will Robertson

1st star: Thomas Hatch


Boxes

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#380653) #
Thanks Gerry. Your notes are great.

The last non playoff games of the season are on Sept 2.

I should update my top 50 prospect list then. Maybe post the top 20.

Bo comes off soon so Pearson is #1.

The next 19 could be interchangeable.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#380655) #
My quick reactions for a minor league season coming to the end, and leaving out promoted players:

Biggest Disappointment: Kevin Smith
Biggest Surprise: Alejandro Kirk
Best Pitcher: Nate Pearson
Best Hitter: Jordan Groshans
Best Pick-up: Simeon Woods-Richardson
Best Draft Debut: Alek Manoah
Pick for Breakout 2020: Olrevis Martinez

Shoeless Joe - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#380656) #
Players who will make a top 100 list: Pearson, Groshans, Manoah, Pardinho, SWR, Martinez
Mike Green - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#380657) #
Age 20 and under wRC+ leaders in A/A+:
Mason Martin 161
Alejandro Kirk 158
Jarred Kelenic 156
Wander Franco 156

Mason Martin is a prodigious slugging first baseman, who strikes out a lot.  
uglyone - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#380658) #
Yeah kirk and moreno could easily be top 100 guys, though they probably wont.
Mike Green - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#380659) #
Kirk is Rule 5 eligible in December 2021, but Moreno in December 2020.  It's going to be pretty crowded on the 40 man after next year. 
Nigel - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#380662) #
I know you don't see a lot of these kinds of trades but this organization could still use a CF and I wouldn't mind seeing them swap some portion of the Groshans, Martinez, Hiraldo, Moreno and Kirk grouping for a top 100 CF talent (preferably with some defensive and OBP skills).
Shoeless Joe - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#380663) #
Usually trades are minor leaguers for major leaguers, so I don't see the Jays trading for a man in the middle of the grass until the team is ready to compete and they have a target at the big league level in mind. However if Jansen has a good year and Kirk/Moreno are pushing him he could be traded for a CF prospect.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#380664) #
The Jays will have a 1st round pick probably in the 5-7 range in next June's amateur draft. That could net them a pretty good centerfield prospect who could move up quickly in the organization.
Oceanbound - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#380665) #
Eric Longenhagen mentions that Toronto knew Hatch had recently added a new pitch (maybe a cutter) shortly before the trade.
hypobole - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#380666) #
Here's the quote:

"Fastball/slider relief prospect who started throwing a cutter just a few starts before he was traded, which may give him a better chance to start"

His GB% has also gone from 35% to 51%. Maybe it's a SSS thing, but someone, Marc maybe, mentioned the Cubs were trying to replace his 2 seamer with a 4 seamer. Maybe the Jays have ditched that.

Mike Green - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#380667) #
If you follow the Fisher Cats on twitter, you can see all of Hatch's 11 strikeout pitches from last night.  There did seem to be a wide strike zone , but he also got a lot of movement both up and down in the zone. 
hypobole - Friday, August 30 2019 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#380686) #
FG ranks 50 FV or better prospects - 114 right now only Bo, Pearson and Groshans in that group. From today's chat:

BK: Any Jays prospects you could see leaping into 50 FV territory this offseason?
1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: weíll take a good hard look at SWR, Iíll probably advocate we consider Gabriel Moreno. Maybe one of the South American teenagers makes a big move, but doubtful.

John Northey - Saturday, August 31 2019 @ 03:14 AM EDT (#380689) #
Right now the Jays are 5th for draft pick, 5 games away from 4th (Miami) so I doubt they get all the way down there. 3 games ahead of Seattle who is 6th, 4 1/2 from Pittsburgh (7th), San Diego is 10th worst at 62-72, 9 games away from the Jays so I think a top 10 pick is a lock, with 5th very likely but 6th or 7th is possible.
hypobole - Saturday, August 31 2019 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#380700) #
I would put the odds of picking 5th at over 90%. Marlins, or any team below the Jays just aren't good enough to go on a run. And the teams above the Jays have a much easier schedule. The Jays do have 6 left vs the O's, but otherwise, the "weakest" team the Jays play is 11 games over .500.
dan gordon - Saturday, August 31 2019 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#380705) #
Had a look at players taken 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th overall in the last 50 years, and there doesn't seem to be a big difference where you pick in that range. Overall 6th and 7th picks actually look a bit better than 4th and 5th.

4th includes Dave Winfield, Mike Morgan, Barry Larkin, Kevin Brown, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Zimmerman and Kyle Schwarber

5th includes Dale Murphy, Dwight Gooden, Jack McDowell, Vernon Wells, J.D. Drew, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Braun and Buster Posey

6th includes Terry Kennedy, Andy Van Slyke, Kevin McReynolds, Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield, Derek Jeter, Zack Greinke, Zack Wheeler and Anthony Rendon

7th includes Frank Thomas, Trot Nixon, Prince Fielder, Nick Markakis, Troy Tulowitzki, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Aaron Nola and Andrew Benintendi.

About a 20% chance of getting a significant player, just under a 10% chance of getting a major star. Way more misses than hits. There does seem to be a significant drop off once you get past 7th overall. Looked at 8th through 10th and there were not nearly as many high end players, and fewer major leaguers.
scottt - Saturday, August 31 2019 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#380712) #
My guess is that there are more misses with pitchers and I'm expecting a position player.
The second round will still be high enough to get a highly ranked pitcher.

Glevin - Saturday, August 31 2019 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#380718) #
Hiraldo and Jimenez promoted to Lansing for a few games. Hiraldo already has an ops of 4.00 (greatest prospect ever?).
dan gordon - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#380730) #
Nice start by Joey Murray for NH, 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 2 ER. Pannone and Richard combined to allow 8 ER in 5 IP for Buffalo.

Hiraldo ended up 1 for 4 (a triple) and made 2 errors playing 2B.

Robertson continued his very strong finish to the season with a 3 for 5 day and another HR, bringing his season OPS to .782. I expect he's going to have a strong 2020 season.
Kelekin - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#380799) #
In review of the draft, 6th overall CJ Abrams finishes with a .393/.436/.647 line, with 15 SB and an 8% strikeout rate. 7th overall Nick Lodolo had 0 BB and 30 K over 18.1 IP (Seattle's 1st rounder, George Kirby, also went 23 IP with 0 BB). Of course, my pre-draft favourite, Corbin Carroll, posted a .297/.406/.476 with 17 SB. Over 90% of the 1st rounders put up respectable first seasons and some were incredible.

Sadly, for the Twins, 13th overall Keoni Cavaco had a rough first season. .470 OPS with a 38% K rate.
Gerry - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#380800) #
Kay and Quinones getting hit around today.
hypobole - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#380801) #
Terrific final start for Yennsy though.
bpoz - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#380802) #
I hope Y Diaz is called up.
scottt - Sunday, September 01 2019 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#380806) #
Does everybody think Verlander goes to HOF as a Tiger?
Or does anyone think he goes as an Astros or as a stray?

John Northey - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#380812) #
Unless he dies like Halladay did he'll be a Tiger. 183 wins as a Tiger, 37 for Houston - similar ratio to Halladay. Halladay seemed pretty clear he was going in as a Jay before he died (the one day contract was a great example of it). If he lasts another 5 years in Houston then maybe he'd think of the 'no logo' or even an Astros hat (if they win enough) but the only real options I see are Tiger or no logo, and then only if he plays 5 more years and has lots of success in Houston.
dan gordon - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#380813) #
Yes, what a game for Diaz, 7 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 8 K. He closed the season with 4 very good starts, allowing only 18 hits and 5 earned runs in his last 25 2/3 IP, with a 21:5 K:BB ratio. One of the horde of guys who could start a game for the Jays at some point next year. Dany Jimenez with another scoreless inning to close out the NH win.

Kay allowed 9 runs, but only 3 were earned. Still, he gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in 2 2/3 IP. Shafer and Tice had rough appearances for Buffalo as well. The score was 15-12, maybe the wind was blowing out.
ayjackson - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#380814) #
Looks like NH gets the short end of the pitching stick at least to start the season. Murray and Castillo likely to hold down the fort until the the reinforcements arrive from Dunedin.
bpoz - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#380819) #
Is anyone else having trouble making a top 10 prospect list for the Jays?

My List:

1) Pearson
2) Manoah
3) SWR
4) Kloff
5) Groshans
6) Kirk
7) G Moreno
8) Pardinho
9) O Martinez
10) Zeuch
11) M Hirald
12) Kay

The next 8 would have 2 position players at most. Too many young pitchers that will be in AA and higher that are very close to the Majors.
uglyone - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#380825) #
As much as people may have been excited by some shutout innings from Kay, his line with the bisons was still a 4.54fip and 5.18xfip.

We have many more impressive prospects than Kay, imo.
bpoz - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#380828) #
The minor league season comes to an end soon except for Vancouver.

Otto Lopes just hit a Hr.
hypobole - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#380829) #
Sean Wymer with the best performance (only good performance?) of his Jays career. 9 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K. Box shows only 85 pitches, 63 strikes.
Gerry - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#380830) #
Last day of the season, swing early and often. Fewer walks, fewer K's quicker games. That Lugnut game was 2 hours and 14minutes.
hypobole - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#380831) #
Yeah, the "hackin' Chuckie's" thing makes sense.
PeterG - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#380833) #
17 year old Winder Garcia has pitched exceptionally well this summer, first in the DSL and then in the GCL. Tonight, he is the starting pitcher for Vancouver in the NWL season finale.
PeterG - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#380834) #
Garcia will be pitching in Everett, a very small park.....hope he can hold his own.
PeterG - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#380838) #
Garcia pitches 5 innings and gives up 1 run on a HR in 4th. Seems an outstanding outing for a 17 year old at this level.
dan gordon - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#380839) #
SRF pitched reasonably well for Buffalo today - importantly, only 1 BB in 4 IP, vs 6 K's. Alford, Burns and, for the 2nd day in a row, Wall, hit HR's. Wall has an OPS of .787 for his short AAA stint. Alford is .754 for the year. Non-prospects Burns and Kivlehan both ended up at .834, Jonathan Davis at .831.

Hector Perez didn't walk anybody in 6 IP, which is nice to see from him, but he gave up 9 hits and 3 runs, finishing with an ERA of 4.60. Given the logjam of starters ahead of him, he probably starts in NH again next year.

Conine had his 22nd HR and a single to bring his OPS to .947. Yorman Rodriguez hit his 1st Lansing HR to end up with a .344 BA and .844 OPS in full season ball.

Not much offense for Vancouver this year. Noticed that 7 of the 9 guys in the order today are hitting .220 or less.
uglyone - Monday, September 02 2019 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#380842) #
Minor League Stories
@MinorsTeamNames
Final AAA Home Run Totals:
2018 - 3,652
2019 - 5,749
AAA games switched to MLB baseballs in 2019.



trying to wrap my head around that number.
scottt - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#380848) #
It must be fun pitching in the PCL these days.
jerjapan - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#380850) #
That's crazy.  It certainly helps explain Jonathan Davis with 10 HR, Socrates Brito with 16 and Andy Burns with 19.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#380852) #
That is just insanity.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#380855) #
MLB Pipeline Prospect Team of the Week:

OF: Will Robertson, Vancouver Canadians (Short-Season)
(Blue Jays No. 19 prospect)
6 G, .458/.552/.875, 7 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 BB, 3 SO

The Jaysí fourth-round pick out of Creighton did most of his damage Thursday-Saturday, when he went 11-for-15 and homered in all three games, driving in all eight of his runs for the week. After struggling out of the gate (.146 in 13 June games), Robertson hit .305/.400/.495 in July and finished up August with a .309/.404/.469 line.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#380856) #
We have V good prospects at many levels in the system. All have different ETAs.
2019 was a great year for position player prospects.

AAA Bo & Biggio graduated and are doing well.

A+ A Kirk looks special. V young.

A G Moreno & Groshans. V young.

SS O Martinez, M Hiraldo and others that are v young.

I have to check the pitching quality.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#380860) #
Both Wall and Espinal ended up having decent AAA debuts, though Espinal was a bit old for the level still and most of his success was babip related.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#380864) #
I know Espinal is a year older than Urena, but he clearly has moved ahead of him in the depths hart at this point right?
uglyone - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#380865) #
i gotta doublecheck but I'm pretty sure Urena's last month or two in AAA this year he was as good as Espinal's AAA line, without needing that high a babip.

of course, for both of them, defense is probably the key.
PeterG - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#380866) #
Yes, I believe that he has.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#380867) #
AAA

Espinal (24): 112pa, 6.3bb%, 20.5k%, .392babip, .317avg, .115iso, 105wrc+

Urena (23):

Last 20gms: 92pa, 7.6bb%, 16.7k%, .328babip, .289avg, .145iso, 97wrc+
Last 45gms: 198pa, 7.6bb%, 18.7k%, .355babip, .296avg, .128isp, 96wrc+


tbh, knock espinal's babip down to a more sustainable level and Urena's line is probably just plain better across the board.


Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#380868) #
Espinal was promoted on August 3rd:

Urena: 0.278/0.333/0.418 - 0.751 OPS, 8.0 BB%, 17.0 K%, 0.139 ISO, 91 wRC+
Espinal: 0.317/0.360/0.433 - 0.793 OPS, 6.3 BB%, 20.5 K%, 0.115 ISO, 105 wRC+

Defense likely plays a major factor, but Espinal has been known for his glove.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#380869) #
still looks to me like Urena is better in every area there (patience, strikeouts, power), except for batting average, which of course is closely intertwined with espinal's .392babip.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#380870) #
Espinal also has a 9.1 SwStr% compared to Urena's 14.0 SwStr% in AAA, and has a history of lower strikeout rates.
uglyone - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#380871) #
yeah wish we could get splits for those.

But Urena's progression in the plain K rate this year is probably echoed at least somewhat in the swinging strike rate I would think:

APR: 37.1k%
MAY: 26.3k%
JUN: 17.5k%
JUL: 19.5k%
AUG: 17.1k%

and sure espinal's historical stats are better but he's been 2-4 years older than Urena at most levels.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#380872) #
Urena has been brutal vs AAA LHP's

2018 207/233/259
2019 212/257/283

Guessing Urena's hot streaks coincide with facing stretches of RHP's.
ayjackson - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#380873) #
Call it a draw then.
dan gordon - Tuesday, September 03 2019 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#380882) #
Yah, it's really close. Espinal is 15 months older, and he spent the majority of this year OPS'ing .725 in AA. Urena spent most of this year OPS'ing .707 in AAA, with the advantage of the livelier ball. With the benefit of the AAA ball, Espinal was able to OPS .793 in Buffalo. The question is how much more development is Urena going to get with that extra 15 months. From last year to this year, he increased his OPS by about 100 points, but much of that could be due to the ball difference in AAA this year. His OPS in short big league trials in 2017 and 2019 was exactly the same. It looks to me like he has kind of stalled out in his development. In terms of fielding, their career range factors at SS in the minors are almost exactly the same, but Espinal has a lower error rate, at 1 per 6 games, while Urena is about 1 in 4.5 games. I'd have a slight preference for Espinal here, but Urena's extreme splits might make him a useful player against righties.
scottt - Wednesday, September 04 2019 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#380904) #
Need to see a bigger sample of Urena.
A good left bat is very useful. If he doesn't get many starts against lefties, improving his right hand swing might be difficult.

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