Always fun to see these prospect lists - I'm just waiting for FanGraphs to release theirs (they are going super-slow with them right now for some reason) and then I'll be able to post a summary of a dozen different sites top Jay prospects.  Baseball Prospectus only goes to 20, Fantrax HQ goes to 25, the rest go to at least 30 with TSN, Prospects 1500, and PitcherList going to 50 each, while BlueBird Banter went to 41 (well, 40 plus Elvis as he isn't officially a rookie anymore even if TSN lists him as one).

I suspect the reason for Fangraphs going 'super-slow' might have something to do with Kiley McDaniel leaving for an ESPN gig.

Nice to see Otto Lopez there.
Didn't expect to see Victor Mesia ahead of McGuire. He's a 17 year old from Venezuela signed last summer

Eric at FG is doing the NW Florida complexes now. Phillies just posted. Yankees, Rays, Jays are the others.

Thanks.  Haven't kept a close eye on FanGraphs so I didn't know one of their key people left, or what their plans were.  Just that there were tons of teams left to get top prospects listed and it is getting late now.  IMO prospect lists should be out between November and February - when there is no baseball to watch thus digging into the future or past is all we got.

There are some interesting omissions here, particularly Riley Adams, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather and TJ Zeuch. Merryweather is completely understandable, having missed almost all of the past two years; but I'd be interested in the thinking on Zeuch and Hatch.

They're low on Reese McGuire, so perhaps they're just a little more sceptical than the rest of the industry on catching prospects.

I will say I was sad not to see Samad Taylor make their top 30.

https://pac-12.com/live/arizona-state-university

Torkelson vs Gonzales

MLB pipeline typically updates at the end of spring training.

Staring at that BA list, I can make an argument that they put the starting pitchers/regular position players on top and list the relievers and bench players later.

Where's the cut off?

Kloff is definitely a starter.
I don't see why Williams wouldn't be one.
Pardinho, because of the TJ might be seen as a reliever now.
Conine is still extreme risks, so on the edge.
de Castro is a glove first back up infield, I think.

Btw, Murphy looked good yesterday in his 1 inning.

It's odd to me you would say Conine is the best power bat in the minors, but also not in the top 30 prospects. By the 30th prospect in the system you are usually squinting at guys and seeing how they could fill the back of a bullpen or maybe get a few years playing time due to a lack of better options. But the best power bat in the minors already has at least one major league calibur skill (at least that's how I would read it). Maybe the recent MLB environment makes it too easy to find passable power from almost anyone, but leading his league in HRs (and yes, Ks too), being top 5 in OPS, in just 80 games seems like it should at least get you on the list. Also might be a good sign for system depth of course.

The Midwest league OPS leaders for 2019 is a fun list for JAys fans overall. Kirk, Conine, and Groshans are 4-5-6 on the list (75ABs to qualify):
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?type=bat&id=7dc93b9d

Tellez has shown good power but not enough discipline.
That's the thing with Conine, the swing and miss could be acceptable if he doesn't chase and walks enough.
He does have an arm that plays in right field.

Pearson is in a category by himself on our list. After that they are in groups IMO.

If healthy Pearson, Kay, Yamaguchi, McGuire and Alford should no longer qualify as prospects. Also Zeuch who did not make the cut.

P Murphy and Y Diaz have a shot at 50+ IP but trades and injuries would be in play.

If next years top prospect can match Vlad/Pearson in status and be ML ready for 2021 then we are Wow!!

I've been following the Bluebird Banter list as they have released it. The person writing it seems to have seen a lot of the prospects play so it's interesting to read.

" I realize that I have to revise upwards my opinion of Orelvis Martinez, in light of multiple positive opinions from various sources."

Orelvis has the perfect combo. Scouts really like him and his numbers look amazing so far. He put up a 150 WRC+ as a 17 YO. Marco Luciano was the only 17 YO in Rookie ball with better numbers. Additionally, Martinez did this with below average luck. He had a BABIP of .296 which was WAY lower than other similar players (Luciano was .378 for example). He's still young and flaws could be exposed as he moved up but he is someone Jays fans can rightly be exited about.

AWeb, Griffin Conine is there at #16. He's about ten spots further down my personal list, but still top 30.

Espinal also has a good chance of getting enough service time to be past the rookie limits. If Murphy has a delivery that works for him, I think he is a contributor in the rotation.

Geez, brain fart on reading ability there.  Whoops. I also wonder about how lower prospects get rated. McGuire already has two (weirdly?) successful cups of coffee in MLB. That is more value at the MLB level than at least half of those on the list will ever provide, although who knows which half I guess. McGuire's evaluation, I assume, is a "from this point forward" sort of thing, not taking into account his success so far (beyond its value in predicting future success).

Here's a question - if Guerrero had an equivalent 2019 in AAA to his MLB season - i.e., fine, but not great as hoped - would Pearson be the top guy on the list this year?

I like Bluebird Banter also C's Plus Baseball.

B Banter give more weight to what I am starting to firmly believe that the Jay's promote their players very slowly. They use extended ST for extra development which causes less playing time and therefore stats to analyse for prospect ranking.

SWR DOB Sept 2000 (Dunedin) is 1 month younger than Kloff (Vancouver). Both have good results but Kloff started 2019 in Extended ST as did G Moreno. SWR pitched in full season ball from the start of 2019 but his innings were held back somewhat. The Jays did not promote him to A+ ball NYM did. He was notified about the trade while being driven to A+ league by his parents. They turned the car around and headed to Dunedin. SWR was definitely impressive in 2019.

Both had V good years. SWR at a much higher level. SWR earned or was given the better opportunity based on organization philosophy.

My list reflected this Manoah #2, SWR #3 and Kloff #4.

I expect Manoah and SWR to start in Dunedin. Kloff in Lansing. My thoughts which could be completely wrong are that Kloff has the better training and reps on his weakest pitches than the other 2. I don't know how to see results from the theory I just proposed.

C's Plus helps me with this theory by stating that he has 5 pitches. My weakening memory forces me to read the C's Plus articles on Kloff and Manoah over and over. It does not matter to me because I am retired.

This is how I interpreted Kloff speaking. He likes his slider better than his curve ball but did not throw the slider at all because the curve was working too well on Aug 21. 7 innings of shut out ball. He threw his sinker the most which he developed in ST (4 months if you include extended ST) of 2019. To write this post I did a lot of research on Kloff. It seems he also has a cutter. He gets the highest grade (60) on his 96 mph 4 seam fastball which he hardly uses at all.

A few of you have mentioned The Athletic as being worthwhile. I just signed up - they have a 40% off deal.

I am one of several subscribers on the Box.

It's well worth my money. I would subscribe for the baseball coverage alone and consider it money well spent, but I use it for other sports, too. There's some really excellent writers and content on the site.

Mike, the omission that is most surprising to me is Riley Adams. Maybe they really don't like his defence, but a 133 wRC+ at AA is nothing to sniff at, he found some more power, and should be ready for Buffalo this year.

I agree about Adams too, GabrielSyme. I'd personally have him a little below Hatch and Zeuch but easily in the top 30. There seems to be a preference for younger (but not very young players) in Rookie League over older players (but not old players) who have had success at double A. I don't share that view.

I think they tend to rank guys who project to be role players lower than others (McGuire for instance - although they are fairly high on Espinal). I actually like that they put international signees and rookie-ball guys fairly high in their rankings - it's one area where they have a lot more information than us, and while some flame out, others can really blossom. They tabbed Moreno at 20 last year, a pretty good call.

They tend, in my opinion, to be a little slow to write off toolsy or pedigreed prospects who reveal fatal flaws. Kevin Smith at #26 is a something of an example; I wouldn't have Griffin Conine as high as he is either. But I'm nitpicking - I really think BA has the best list out there.

I always expected Adams to be no more than a third catcher playing full time in Buffalo.
Kirk is already reaching AA.
Now, I'm not sure. It's possible McGuire gets traded as the front office isn't thrilled by his recent exposure.
McGuire and an outfielder for a better outfielder or something like that would make sense.
Normally teams don't dilute the talent  by trading one for 2 but when one of the guy plugs a glaring hole, it's different.
The market for catcher is not very strong.

I was reading some comments on a site about Boston not getting Meyers+prospects from the Padres.
I was curious to see which fans would want this type of trade.
Turns out the comments were dominated by opinions on Stanton and guaranteed contracts.
Booh.

BA's Sleeper Prospect ... Dihian Santos RHP ? Who is he ?
The only listing that I came up with was one with no stats and listed his birthday as February 26, 2003 (?)

Santos is a small RHP that Tinnish likes. Touches 94 and has a feel for pitching.

BA ranked Santos #81 in their top 100 International prospect signings of 2019.

Pipeline's list is out.

Top-10

1. Pearson
2. Groshans
3. SWR
4. Manoah
5. Kirk
6. Martinez
7. Moreno
8. Hiraldo
9. Kloffenstein
10. Kay

11. Williams
12. Pardinho
13. Otto Lopez
14. Griffin Conine
15. Leonardo Jimenez
16. Estiven Machado
17. Dasan Brown
18. Rikelvin de Castro
19. Murphy
20 McGuire

They have a new layout. It's worth checking out.

Per today's Fangraph chat, the Jays prospect list will be out late next week. Also this:

Kurupt FM: I realize you’re not the ZiPS guy but after seeing the projection for Alejandro Kirk can you explain why he projects to be better than his prospect rating?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s on the catch/can’t catch line. I body comp’d him to Chris Farley last year. ZiPS doesn’t know what any of the prospects look like, physically.

Alford is having a brutal audition so far for the final roster spot on the Jays.

I don't know that the results matter.
We're talking about the 5th outfielder.

Maybe Gurriel is the first baseman against lefties?

Keith Law has Jays system 7th.

"The Blue Jays system remains in the top 10 thanks to a little of everything. Their past two drafts, in particular, look very strong. Their international scouting department has added some of the highest-ceiling prospects they’ve had since before I worked there. They added two more of their top-10 prospects in the Marcus Stroman trade. And they’re developing well, with their top two prospects improving since they entered the Toronto system."

Obligatory: "If KLaw likes our system, it's gotta be good!"

AL East prospect pools are either haves or have-nots on his list. Rays #1, Yankees #6, Jays #7, O's #24, Red Sox #25.

A comment on the O's needing to get active in Latin America again (which Elias is trying to do) brought me back to that BBB fanpost on the Jays lack of success there over the past 30 years. AA to his credit pushed a lot of scouting resources down there when he took over. But with deals in place down there sometimes years in advance, and the best scouts and connections already with other organizations, it took a few years to have any kind of success. Cardona, Meza, Cenas were all expensive failures - Cardona the only one to even make it past short season ball.

Of course, keith has to slip in the "past 2 drafts" and "stroman trade" remarks to give himself wiggle room to backtrack on his previous awful takes.

It's actually an hilarious attempt by him - the 2 drafts before "the past 2 drafts" have already produced Bichette, Biggio, and Pearson as well as guys like Zeuch, Adams, Tice, Winckowski, Young still working their way up. He actually wants us to believe that he was right about completely whiffing on those drafts.

Keith Law is self-serving hack.

Thanks hypobole. I always felt that Richardi was a terrible GM. I think I was being too kind.

I think Law has diverged negatively from the consensus often enough when it comes to the Jays that I wouldn't assume there isn't a conscious or unconscious bias. Of course, you could only really establish bias by looking at some hard data - if, for instance, he's consistently ranked the Jays farm system as a whole lower than BA/BP average, that would go quite a ways to establish bias.

I stand by my statement. It's well evidenced.

Law having the Yankees as the #6 farm ahead of the Jays at #7 caught my eye. I was recently checking out Yankee prospects and was struck by how few interesting guys they have. I wouldn’t have any of their #4 thru #10 guys cracking the Jays top 10.

Does Baseball America agree that the Yankee system is good?

I have seen other evaluators with high rankings for the Yankee system.  I have no idea whether they are right or not. 

The Yankees are, and have been, excellent in the J2 market with both scouts and connections. It's also been mentioned by the FG guys and Law that the Yankees pitching development has been one of the best in adding velocity and refining secondaries.

Apparently BA had the Yankees farm system at 17th.

Looking at pipeline.
Jays have Pearson (65), than 2 (55) and 8 (50).
Yankees have a kid with no professional game as their #1, 2 (55) and 8 (50).

Pearson is 8th, Dominguez is 54th, Groshans is 75th, Clarke Schmidt is 88th, Deivi Garcia is 92th, SWR is 98th.

Once Pearson graduates, the Yankees are probably ahead, but the Jays pick early in the next draft.
Until then, it's a matter of personal preference. I suppose everybody scouts the Yankees prospects because most are available in a trade.

Florial was a top prospect but he has stalled at a relatively low level.

If I look at the pipeline for 2018, Florial was 82nd at the end of the year.
In 2018, Florial was 45th, Loaisiga was 66th, Albert Abreu was 85th.
In 2017, Torres was 2nd, Chance Adams was 53rd, Florial was 79th, Justus Sheffield was 80th and Andujar was 92nd.

They have a fair amount of miss with the hits and I'm not sold on Deivi Garcia.

John Lott with (another) excellent article at The Athletic, on the evolution of the coaching staffs in the Jays minor league system.

Concur.  John Lott's article is excellent.  There is one funny typo- "swing-censor" instead of "swing-sensor".  There are definitely swings I have seen that ought to be censored for their potential to lead children into the abyss of bad baseball habits.

Kiley at ESPN with his Top 100 today. Nate #6, Groshans #68, SWR #70.

FG also posted the Yankees Top 54, which means the Jays list should be next. Mentioned the Yankees success in Latin America earlier and sure enough, their top 5, 9 of 10 and 18 of 20 prospects on Eric's list are Latin American IFA's.

The top breakout candidates for MLB for 2020 from baseball america:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/meet-the-mlb-breakout-hitter-of-2020/

8 different contributors each name their top choice. 4 of them choose Blue Jays players (3 different players named)!

It's great to see Gurriel get a nod - I'm the least confident about his offence among those three, so it's nice to see a well-informed guy voice his confidence in him.

I actually thought Keith Law provided some different looks at the system, which made me rethink some things.

I am starting to look at Dasan Brown as the new Anthony Gose, who we will always get excited for after a hot stretch of hitting....knowing deep down it likely won’t last.

I am higher on Monah than SWR like Law, but he really likes Kay more than anybody else.

I think Laws comments on Zeuch were correct and I would try weaponize his sinker in the bullpen, with Aaron Bummer as an upside comparison.

The Lott article on the Jays revamped development system provided real insight and I love mentions of collaboration. Great organizations focus on collaboration and empowering employees.

"I am higher on Monah than SWR like Law, but he really likes Kay more than anybody else."

Actually John Sickels is highest on Kay. From his Top 100 list:

86) Anthony Kay, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B: Previously No. 87; 2.96 ERA with 135/56 K/BB in 134 innings in Double-A/Triple-A; posted 5.79 ERA in 14 major league innings with 13/5 K/BB; still has some command glitches but live-armed lefties get lots of slack. — ETA 2020

Fun Lansing Lugnuts bit here:

https://tht.fangraphs.com/i-want-it-that-way/

I'm a geezer and have always had zero interest in the BS Boys, which is why I skipped over the story at FG when it first went up. But it was highly recommended at BBB, so I read it and I'm glad I did.

Thanks, hypobole.  Good story.

John Northey alert!

Eric at Fangraphs has his Jays Top 38 Prospect list up.

I looked at the list and one thing I noticed that the ETA on Gabriel Moreno was 2021. Although he's a good-looking prospect, that seems optimistic for a 20 year old who might be starting out at low A this year. Also it's the first time I've seen SWR ahead of Groshans on any list.

The first thing I notice is that he covers 38 prospects for the Jays and 54 for the Yankees including an incredible 22 who haven't progressed beyond rookie ball.

Pearson gets a decent score, that's a given.

Everyone else has a ceiling of an average player, a 4th starter, a reliever or a bench player.
He doesn't cover Espinal because he think he doesn't hit enough to be more than a replacement player. He does mention that he didn't think Biggio could be an above average player.

Pitchers who throw around 95mph get at least a 50 present value for their fastballs, but no excess future value. Ceiling already reached. Hitters who hit .330 get a present value of 20 or 25 albeit with a high future value. Then there are disparaging comments about the players physique, health, swing, delivery, etc...

He sorta like Hatch, but it's more like he doesn't have anything negative to say about him.
Hatch was 26th in the Cubs' system last year.

Htach apparently has bene touching 97 on the stadium gun during Monday's game.

I was very surprised to see Hatch and Murphy so far apart - Murphy at 32 and Hatch at 9. They're close to the same age, both were at AA last year, and Murphy throws harder and is generally thought to have better stuff (although Longenhagen only gives his curveball a 50), but the differentiating factor seems to be half a grade on command, despite them basically having exactly the same walk rates in recent years. The difference in command appears to lead to Hatch being seen as a back-end starter and Murphy as a reliever, and their resulting rankings.

This seems extremely odd to me - both have reliever risk (and Murphy has more injury risk), but they would appear to have pretty similar reliever risk.

There are other odd things about Longenhagen's list - Reese McGuire, for instance, is given a 20 for current game power - this for a guy with 7 HRs in 140 major league at-bats, which is pretty ample proof that it's not a 20, even if he's been hitting way over his head.

Every list has its quirks. I was surprised that Samad Taylor went from 25 on his list last year to not even mentioned this year. He doesn't think much of Maximo Castillo, which seems to fit the consensus - Longenhagen's comments include "He’s a bowling ball with an upright delivery" and "he has a relief-only mechanical and physical look". Besides being very high on Hatch (#9) he has Rikelvin de Castro way up at #11.

And there's some value in those quirks. I think Longenhagen tends to look at whether there's a carrying skill in the package, so you get guys like d'Orazio and Roither Hernandez highlighted and pushing someone like Alberto Rodriguez pretty far up; but then he also pigeonholes guys into roles (Murphy) where there ought to be a range of possible outcomes. And with Espinal, McGuire and possibly Alford, I think he's largely discounting their chances of surprising on the upside, and evaluating them solely as role players.

Samad Taylor is an interesting prospect, and I have trouble discounting a toolsy guy who has not failed at any level, and has been young at each level. Kevin Smith is 18th on this list, is two years older, and has a lot more uncertainty on his ability to hit.

Thanks hypobole - got the stats together, just need to find time to write it up and format it.  Hopefully tonight.