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The Blue Jays have acquired Taijuan Walker from the Seattle Mariners for a player to be named later or cash considerations. The fact it’s a player to be named later means the player may not be in the 60-man player pool.

Walker is a right-handed starting pitcher who will become a free agent at year’s end. Presumably, he will slot into the rotation right behind Ryu. So far this year, Walker is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 27 innings.
Jays Add Walker in Shortened Season Shake-Up | 197 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#389411) #
Walker's Statcast numbers suggest that he's been league average or a little below and not as good as ERA would suggest.  It's a useful addition, but in my view, less pressing that a bench upgrade.  The best thing about him is that his last 2 starts were both effective and he threw 6 and 7 innings against the Rangers and Dodgers.

I'm not surprised with the acquisition.  Charlie Montoyo described yesterday's outing (Merryweather for 2 innings and Yamaguchi for 4 innings) as a "bullpen day" and noted that they had another one coming after Ryu.  Personally I don't see "2+4" as a bullpen day and somehow more taxing on the staff than the average Anderson or Roark start. Charlie has previously indicated his discomfort with openers/tandems and so on, so I can easily imagine him telling the FO that he needed another starter.  I hope this acquisition allows him to hold to 5 innings with Roark and Anderson unless they really have it on a particular day. 
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#389412) #
It was a very pressing acquisition because they are down to 3 starters.
Roark and Anderson have been fine.
Anderson has an ERA of 3.68 and Roark is 2-1 with an inflated ERA following a start on 10 days of rest.
If Walker can keep the Jays close for 5 innings at a time, the bullpen should do the rest.

The bench help is Bo, who will be starting baseball activities this weekend.
Ideally, they drop one of Panik or Drury because Espinal has been better.
Drury -1.1 bWAR, Panik -0.4 bWAR, Espinal 0.1 bWAR.

Font is 1-3 and he's a candidate to be dropped if you add another starter.
Walker keeps Kay in the pen where he can be a bridge to the high leverage guys.

bpoz - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#389414) #
I really like the "mostly nothing" in Atkins quotes. You also have to like that he is a man of action. Merryweather, Dolis, Font etc... for pitching. On the position side Drury, McMillen, Shaw, Panik and C Joseph. None are especially young or very good. But at times they are healthy. All these spare parts give him the quantity to trade with anyone desperate.

In the NL LAD are in and Pittsburgh are out it seems. SF is in a 7 game win streak which puts them back in the playoff fight.

Drury can be moved soon. He has value as a healthy player that can play IF & OF. Double headers and nagging injuries (day to day) are a fact this season.

St Louis always seems to compete. They are also willing to trade some pieces that are blocked.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#389415) #
The best 10 pitchers on the club so far have been Ryu and 9 relievers (Romano, Cole, Bass, Yamaguchi, Dolis, Borucki, Waguespack, Hatch, Kay and Merryweather).  Merryweather and Yamaguchi, for instance, would probably produce about the same or better numbers as Walker.  Hatch and Kay also would probably be the same or better.  The nice thing about Walker is that his acquisition allows the manager to pull Roark or Anderson earlier, without overtaxing the pen.  

A new right-handed third base option, on the other hand, is obviously critical.  Other clubs have started as many lefties as possible at the Blue Jays because of this weakness.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#389417) #
Drury has zero trade value. If anyone wants a Drury type, Brock Holt is available. Drury should be moved... to Rochester.
PeterG - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#389418) #
According to Jim Bowden. sources from both teams are saying that it will be a top 30 prospect going to Mariners.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#389419) #
Mike, the Jays vs LHP - 114 wRC+, vs RHP - 105 wRC+.

Yeah, very much need an upgrade on Drury, but intentionally starting a lefty might not be the best idea.
Glevin - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#389420) #
"According to Jim Bowden. sources from both teams are saying that it will be a top 30 prospect going to Mariners."

To me, top-30 prospect implies something in the 20-30 range. You wouldn't say top-30 prospect for a the #12 prospect. My guess is someone with upside but risk in rookie ball (De Castro, Robertson, D'Orazio, Frasso, etc...). Jays now have prospect depth to take these risks.
PeterG - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#389421) #
Could be one of those but my guess is that it's Sem Robberse.
Paul D - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#389422) #
And Alford has been claimed by the Pirates.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#389423) #
Interesting point, hypobole.  Strangely, the Blue Jays have actually hit right-handed starters better than left-handed starters but have absolutely killed left-handed relievers.  I guess it's the effect of the 3 batter minimum rule and the right-handed tilt of the Blue Jay lineup (think Aaron Loup being brought in to face Biggio and facing Grichuk because of the rule). The LOOGY is dead.
Cracka - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#389424) #
It looks like The Red Sox, in support of teammate JBJ, have decided not to play tonight. Presumably, tonight's game will be made up later as part of a DH.
Glevin - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#389425) #
It's Will Robertson apparently. I'm fine with that. Decent prospect but long-shot to have a career. Seems fair.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#389426) #
I'm fine with Will Robertson for the Taijuan Walker rental.  Good move.  Now let's see a right-handed third baseman please. 
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#389427) #
I always hear "Danger! Danger!" in front of Will Robertson.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#389428) #
I have an irrational love of Taijuan Walker because way back in 2010 I was hoping the Jays would draft him in the spot they took Asher Wojciechowski.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#389429) #
Aghhhhhh, giving up Will Robertson will end up a massive mistake.
hypobole - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#389430) #
It's Will Robertson apparently.

source? Can't find it anywhere.
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#389431) #
I don't see Robertson confirmed anywhere. If it's a top 30 prospect from MLB's list, then he would make sense as the return, but I haven't seen anyone report it unless I missed it.

Walker is an interesting gamble. I'm not expecting much, but he missed 2018-19 due to injury, and this is his first season back. His velocity seems to be back to normal. Maybe there's a bit of upside there. Would have been nice if he had an option for next year, but the FO can always try to work that out after the season if he proves to be back to pre-injury form.
rpriske - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#389432) #
If you think Will Robertson is too much to pay, then you would never be able to make a trade, ever.

It is a small price to pay for a trip to the playoffs. Walker improves this team a lot. A 'maybe' prospect for that? That is an easy yes.
scottt - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#389433) #
You cannot name a PTBNL. You will not hear anything official either way.
But something can be leaked.
There might be a scale depending on how many starts Walker is able to make, given the money mentioned in the trade.

Shoeless Joe - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#389434) #
If Tajuan Walker, is a few weeks removed from barely getting a major league deal. If he is the make of break for a team to get into the playoffs then you’re not really a playoff team.

I liked Will Robertson heading into the draft and he has pure hitting skills with big time power, I think he makes the majors as a corner outfielder. I would have rather given up SRF, Hector Perez, Riley Adams, Kevin Smith, Yennsy Diaz or Dasan Brown from the top 30 list.

However I don’t even think Walker is an upgrade over giving Hatch, Kay, Murphy, Borucki, or Merryweather some burn in the rotation. There have been comments that Merryweather can’t be a starter because he has only thrown 12 innings the last two years, but Walker has only thrown 14 leading into this year.
rpriske - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#389435) #
You are dramatically underestimating Walker. He is the second best starter the Jays have, as of now. Even with everyone healthy,the is no worse than #3.
Glevin - Thursday, August 27 2020 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#389436) #
"You cannot name a PTBNL. You will not hear anything official either way."

We knew about Merryweather WAY before it was official. I saw 2 different twitter accounts claim they heard Robertson so it's hardly official but it would make sense.
Michael - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#389437) #
Walker acquisition to me makes sense as long as the price is low. Even with a good farm system a bottom of the top 30 prospect is going to be a low/fair price for half a season of a legit major league player. And SP is the easiest position to add value as the replacement value is low (I.e., teams need 5 health SP so a reasonable and healthy SP, even an average or slightly below average one, adds value to pretty much any team).

It doesn't make sense to go "all-in" for the playoffs in this shortened season with a young fringe-competitive Jays team, but it makes a lot of sense to add marginal temporary additions if they don't cost much.

Odds are probably substantially better that Anthony Alford has a more valuable major league career than the PTBNL in the Walker deal (as long as the PTBNL is bottom of the top 30 or worse, as commonly thought right now).
clark - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#389438) #
I love the Walker acquisition, it sends a great message to the team. Now hopefully he pitches well.

I think that La Stella would be a perfect addition to the Jays. The Angels are out of contention and he’s a FA at the end of the season. Acquisition cost shouldn’t be too high.

2019-2020 LAA 108 438 391 64 113 16 0 20 58 1 0 35 35 .289 .353 .483 .836 122 189 11 4 1 1

Imagine that bat in place of the hopelessness and misery of Panik and Drury at bats!!
Parker - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#389439) #
Wow, the Mets.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#389440) #
Rogers does radio and cable for the Jays games. They also do talk shows on the Fan. Sportsnet is also theirs. So IF the Jays do well, make the playoffs and go far Rogers should get good revenues. This makes Rogers/Jays different from other teams. They can calculate player costs (salaries) and do an estimate of potential revenues as the Jays advance in the playoffs. If they do advance.
scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#389441) #
Atkins said I would expect to be extremely active.

Mike Green - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#389442) #
La Stella hits left, but has only a small platoon disadvantage over his career.  He's not in the ideal replacement for Drury, but you could easily get him half-time work at third base.  He's a poor defensive second baseman at this point, and you wouldn't want him to replace Panik. 
Spifficus - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#389443) #
Instead of Le Stella, I was thinking about someone like Asdrubal Cabrera or Wilmer Flores, either of whom could handle 3B and allow Shaw to heal, and then slide into a 3B/1B/DH rotation that sees significant playing time. Nothing exciting, but lots of useful contact.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#389444) #
I would like to see us get a young piece. The NL is a good hunting ground.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#389445) #
This team isn't even close with current SP. Hopefully Walker is just the tip of the ice berg and there are at least 2 more starters coming, one more like Walker and a coup in a number 1 or 2. I'll trade Groshans or another top prospect for a pitcher like Bauer or Darvish (with agreed extension).

I'd trade Groshans + for Lizards or Julio Urias.

scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#389446) #
Why would you trade a top prospect for a pitcher that you can sign over the winter?
He's not going to be any cheaper.

Boston is a wreck because they traded all their prospects.
I expect the front office to follow the Cleveland formula.

The Jays will be facing one of the top teams in the playoffs.
The odds of winning the best of 3 and moving on is around 30%.
That's not going to change significantly.
They'll probably bullpen their way through the playoffs anyway.
The trades are just to lock up what they have achieved so far, a wildcard spot.

grjas - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#389447) #
I wouldn’t deal Groshans given the black hole at third base. The system’s awash in catchers and I’d rather they deal from their strength.
85bluejay - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#389448) #
I'd be surprised if any team made a major trade since there's no attendance and even 2021 attendance is not gtd., uncertainty if the season will be completed and it's likely the WS will come with some sort of asterisk and teams are probably reluctant to take on money.
dalimon5 - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#389449) #
You guys are only weighing the cons of trades and downsides. Try to look for the positives. Any team can wait until they are a favourite for that "one, final piece or two to push them over the top" as if it were that easy.

I think management sees a bigger opportunity to excel in the playoffs if they have the pitching solved via trades. There's a lot of depleted teams opening up opportunities for other teams. Donaldson, Stanton, Judge, Canada etc are hurting.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#389450) #
Maybe a blockbuster or 2 does happen. We will see.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#389451) #
Jarrod Dyson to CWS for bonus pool money. Maybe Atkins can do that.
Spifficus - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#389452) #
The opening round of the playoffs is best 2 of 3 - this is a fill in the holes cheap year, not a blow it all on a superstar one, especially when you're playing for the WC and not the division(s). There are just too few sellers (the Nats aren't gonna sell any of their stars), and getting into a bidding war over Lynn probably isn't worth it.

Now, I think this coming offseason could be a different matter, when you can likely use the financial flexibility to grab talent on teams that are a little too leveraged in a COVID world without knowing if there will be fans.
scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#389453) #
I take it Canada is an autocorrect?

It's like the Dickie trade. Or the Price trade.
Neither of these helped in the long turn.
It's OK to make these moves when the window is starting to close.

There are several prospects who will compete for 3rd base, in a year or 2.
Espinal has a higher OBP than Shaw and his slugging is barely lower.

Other than that, the Jays weakness is not the outfield, it's the catchers.
Kirk could be added anytime as a bench player.

scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#389454) #
I hope not.

Jarrod Dyson is having a terrible year. .157 .218 .157

Kuhl has a 2.52 ERA. but his FIP is 4.70.
He's been striking out fewer and walking more hitters and his homerun rate is at its highest. Just gotten more ground balls.

Williams has a 5.34 ERA, FIP at 5.30. The peripherals don't impress me at all.

Yamaguchi has a 4.26 ERA and a 3.86 FIP.
I'd let him slide as the 5th starter.

dalimon5 - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#389455) #
Yes autocorrect...I don't know how to turn it off...yet

I think now is perfect time to make a trade for a superstar because teams are pressured with less income...if Jays can afford that.

Price and Dickey trades were based on good farm systems but not deep farm systems. Atkins has a very deep system and it will only get deeper. He has Manoah, Pearson and SWR from the last 2 years alone. He has more in the infield.

I would be looking to buy on a superstar with my prospect capital and bring down the salary or pay the salary and lower the prospect cost.

Arenado also looks very attractive in COL. I would trade Vlad for him as well as mark down money.
Jonny German - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#389456) #
Thumbs up on the Walker trade from me. This team can and should make the expanded playoffs, so if the cost is low they absolutely should be looking to increase their odds of surviving past the first round.

My expectations are not high for them in the playoffs, but they are the type of team that could go on a magical run - several streaky hitters who could go off at the right time, the potential to send out a parade of nasty arms from the pen.
Jonny German - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#389457) #
These numbers are to be taken with a large grain of salt, but has Arenado with a surplus value of $7M, as compared to Vlad at... $98M.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#389458) #
Jays have had the worst production at 3rd base in MLB thus far. From Fangraphs:

Shortly after camps reopened in July, the Blue Jays decided that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a better fit at first base than third, a move that made particular sense given their December signing of Travis Shaw, who has spent the bulk of his career at third base. The rub is that the now-30-year-old Shaw had been non-tendered by the Brewers after a dreadful 2019 season (.157/.281/.270, 47 wRC+) in which a pair of injuries to his right hand — first a contusion via a hit-by-pitch, and then a wrist strain — and a minor swing change that produced too many harmless flies; too much swing-and miss played a part. Shaw’s 2020 slash line (.205/.271/.333, 66 wRC+) would lead you to believe that little has changed, but he’s actually scalding the ball, with a 92.6 mph average exit velocity and 51.0% hard-hit rate (both 96th percentile) while his average launch angle has dropped from 24.9 to 15.7 and his xwOBA has improved from .283 to .342. Long story short, the situation is hardly as bad as it looks, and his production should regress in a positive direction (note his .270 xBA and .458 xSLG). That said, it wouldn’t hurt to upgrade on backup Brandon Drury, who’s just 3-for-32 as a third baseman and hitting for a -6 wRC+ in 49 PA overall.
Spifficus - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#389459) #
COVID means the playoffs this year aren't as valuable as in normal years.

As for whether the Blue Jays can be an outlier on salary absorbing this year, I'd guess probably not in-season, unless the TV ratings are bonkers. The pandemic and lockdown probably squeezed Rogers across their business, making them less willing to outlay on short notice this year for an entity that's less valuable than normal - there's a real risk of being booted after a short season, or the risk that your prized acquisition could be nullified by a careless non-masker at the airport. There's too much risk right now in any one asset, and less of a return. That's why I'm saying that right now, breadth is best. Of course, I'm probably jaded a bit in that I only take this season half-seriously.

Again, the rules are different for the offseason: fans may be back to some degree next summer (come on, vaccine!), they could let some of their complimentary pieces walk, the mother corp could be in a better position to plan for an opportunistic strike, some teams might be tapped out after already suffering a pro-rated year they were locked in for and balk at an upcoming full-salary reduced-fan year, the risk of COVID knocking your acquisition out for the full season is obviously tougher to do for a full slate, and so on.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#389460) #
Agreed Spifficus.

No fans allowed at the ballpark means no NYY and Boston fans travelling here to fill the stadium. No Jays fans outnumbering the Seattle fans. Also no Casual fans attending just to be a part of the "in Crowd" if it still exists.

Then again a giant entertainment center at home is supposed to be better than the ballpark. I have never seen one of those things.
scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#389461) #
There has never been a bad time to upgrade from Drury.
Heck, they could simply recall Ruben Tejada from the alternate site and it would be a free upgrade.

It has always taken a premium to entice players to come to Toronto.
That was true even for Russell Martin.
It's probably going to be worse this winter due to the Buffalo situation.

scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#389462) #
Walker will become the Jays' only black player since Alford is now a Pirate.
Also, Walker's father and siblings are from Louisiana, right in the path of Laura.

It's probably a good thing he has a few days to settle down.

scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#389463) #
We know for a fact that the return play is not on the 60 players pool.
Some have claimed that it's a position player in the top 30.
The 20-30 portion of the prospect list are populated with pitchers and older guys in the pool.
The only one left is Robertson.

hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#389465) #
Dan "ZIPS" at FG with his BABIP over/underachievers the 1st month of last year and this year. What were their BABIP's compared to what there BABIP's should have been (he calls this zBABIP) based on their advanced data. And how did they end up doing the rest of last year vs their April? Here's the money quote:

"the 50 trailers combined for a .301 zBABIP compared to their actual .223 BABIP. Over the rest of the season, they combined for .297. But that’s not to say everyone recovered"

There is 1 Jay and 1 soon-to-be Jay on this years "trailers".

Jansen - .182 BABIP vs.293 zBABIP
Vogelbach - .079 BABIP vs .226 zBABIP
PeterG - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#389466) #
How do we know that the PTBNL is not in the 60 player pool? I know that Jon Heyman suggested that but he may be assuming that since the exchange is not taking place now. Jays may want to keep a pool player for depth purposes but exchange him after the season ends.

It may well be Robertson but I will need to see something more concrete before being certain that it is.
PeterG - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#389467) #
Walker activated.

Drury optioned.

Pannone clears waivers and is ourighted.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#389468) #
Wow they actually gave up on the Drury Dream.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#389469) #
The best I can say about Drury and Pannone is that both pulled their weight in helping the Jays acquire Austin Martin.
greenfrog - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#389470) #
Net WAR received by the Jays in the Happ trade (from Drury and McKinney): -1.0

Not exactly the ideal return for a player who was the most coveted SP at the trade deadline. Memo to the front office: never agree to a trade with Cashman.
grjas - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#389471) #
The best I can say about Drury and Pannone is that both pulled their weight in helping the Jays acquire Austin Martin.

Ha. Good one!
grjas - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#389472) #
Don’t look now but Jr has an OPS of 883 over the last 28 days before tonight.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#389474) #
I liked the move by Montoyo bringing in Romano to face the O's best hitters in the 8th.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#389475) #
"The best I can say about Drury and Pannone is that both pulled their weight in helping the Jays acquire Austin Martin"

Hehheh. Nice to be on the same page with you hypo.
Kasi - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#389476) #
Nice thing about Vlad is that OPS still puts him in solid fifth place on the team behind Bo, Teoscar, Biggio and our hero Grichuk and fairly neck and neck with Rowdy. If the bottom of the lineup could do much hitting at all (mainly need Shaw and the catchers to do something) this lineup is fairly fearsome.
uglyone - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#389477) #
Whoa just looked at our hitting stats for the first time all year.

Holy crap we are good.
bpoz - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#389478) #
The team is believing in itself. This is great.
scottt - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#389479) #
I don't know if they gave up on the Drury dream.
He had one option left so he got optioned.

Baltimore was pesky. They passed Smith Jr. through waivers and promoted Mountcastle. That guy can hit.
Also, they got their shortstop back. He's hitting over .400 and they went 2-8 for the 10 games he was on the DL.
Their pen isn't as deep, so it was good that the starter was out after 4.
Hopefully that cost them the rest of the series.

It's going to be interesting to see what the division looks next year.
Tampa will have to make some cuts. Boston could have a good rotation again.
The Yankees have a lot of free agents this year. I'm hoping that LeMahieu will cost a fortune.

The Jays are getting mighty close to the Yankees.

Huge game from Grichuk. 3 caught stolen from Jansen.
Gurriel dug a huge hole in the outfield.

Sucks about Romano. I don't understand why they even talk about him throwing 2 innings.
Hopefully he's not gone too long and Giles is back before that. 
Maybe SRF comes right back?

hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#389480) #
Franklin Barreto, the last remaining piece of the haul for Donaldson, just traded to the A's for 1 month of Tommy La Stella.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#389481) #
Barreto traded to the Angels by the A's.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#389482) #
Mets sweep Yanks, stretching their losing streak to 7 games. Jays now half game back of both Yankees and Astros.
hypobole - Friday, August 28 2020 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#389483) #
More good news:
Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo said closer Ken Giles (forearm strain) threw on the side and felt good, adding that the next step is throwing live BP. ... RHP Nate Pearson (elbow tightness) played catch from 60 feet and will be extended to 90 and 120 feet over the next few days before throwing a side session ... SS Bo Bichette (knee sprain) started swinging off a tee Thursday and also played catch.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 05:42 AM EDT (#389484) #
It's interesting that the Jay's record has improved since Bichette went out with his injury. It's almost like everybody has upped their game to compensate for his absence.

Two things from the game last night:
1) Sometimes I think the Jays would benefit from having a veteran catcher just from the pitch calling point of view. On the pitch before he gave up the game-tying home run, Romano threw a slider that the batter was all over, ripping a line drive foul ball. Then he came back with another slider which the batter crushed over the fence. Why throw the exact same pitch again when you have a 98 mph fastball ?

2) Joe Panik can't hit. He used to be able to, apparently, but can't anymore. I'll be surprised if Ross Atkins doesn't try to upgrade the infield bench position although Espinal has been good.
Magpie - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 06:20 AM EDT (#389485) #
On the pitch before he gave up the game-tying home run

Buck Martinez was all over this during the broadcast, and a few innings earlier he had high praise for Ryu coming back with a changeup immediately after throwing a lousy changeup. His point the first time was that Ryu had just thrown the pitch, knew what he'd done wrong and how to fix it.

Romano hadn't thrown a bad slider on the 3-1 pitch - he'd simply thrown a slider to a hitter who was clearly looking for the slider. Which was the difference. Well, that and throwing him a hanger on the next pitch.
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#389486) #
When you are throwing a slider and a 97-98 mph fastball, there's a good chance that the hitter will sit on the slider.
Romano throws harder than Giles these days, but Giles has a better slider.
He throws it for a ball most of the time and the hitter chases.
He chases because he wants to hit that slider.

scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#389487) #
The middle infield upgrade is Bichette.

Vogelbach is an interesting project.
He's got a better eye than Tellez but with a hole in his swing.

Shaw has hit the ball hard and hasn't seen much results.

They mentioned that Montoyo wants more run prevention. Pitching and defense.
He's got some of that last night.
I think we'll see Fisher in a game instead of Gurriel soon.
hypobole - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#389488) #
I caught most of the game, but not all. A couple of rulings baffled me. I did see the "infield single" that scored 2 runs. It was an error. I'd give the error to Shaw, Maybe Vlad should have picked it but the runner was still a few feet from the bag when ball skipped by Vlad.

And the one I didn't see. Why was the 2nd out in top of the 9th a put out rather than a CS?

Thomas - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#389490) #
Peter, we don't know for sure it's someone not in the 60-man player pool. As the story on Batter's Box notes, "The fact it’s a player to be named later means the player may not be in the 60-man player pool."

It's logical to assume it's someone not in the player pool, since Toronto presumably values it's spots as much as Pittsburgh, for both prospect development and cycling through the guys on the tail-end of the roster purposes. If it was someone in the player pool, one would have expect the teams named the player.

I'm fairly confident it won't be someone in the player pool. However, there is no absolute certainty that it is.
Cracka - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 09:55 AM EDT (#389491) #
The Shaw play was absolutely an error - and Ryu should have been spared 2 earned runs. Shaw was looking to get the force at 2B but then threw off-balance to 1B on a short-hop up the baseline. A veteran 1B probably catches that throw the majority of the time, but Vlady couldn't snag it. Shaw had time to make a better throw & decision, I think this is his error. To call this play an "infield single" is preposterous; Mountcastle wasn't close to beating the throw at 1B.

The non-"caught-stealing" in the 9th was probably correct. The runner took off when the pitch hit the dirt and was out trying to advance on a potential "wild pitch". Doesn't change the fact that Jansen had his best throwing game of the season - Jansen & McGuire are now at 26% for the year (6 CS, 17 SB) which is slightly above league average. I wouldn't be surprised to see Caleb Joesph at some point this season - particularly if Reese doesn't start hitting a little bit.

bpoz - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#389492) #
Our position core is improving, most likely because they get to play. This is a big positive IMO. The extra parts we added in the off season have not done much except provide depth. T Shaw, J Panik. I am not really disappointed with these cheap acquisitions. Now and then you get lucky with an E Sogard. Sogard is struggling this year.

The pitching has been a very pleasant surprise. Ryu was a big acquisition for the rotation. Shoemaker did very well for a while. Overall the rotation has under performed. We counted on Thornton who got injured twice.

Our pen had Giles and Gaviglio as steady and reliable for their roles. Injury and under performance has reduced their value to very little. The rest of the pen were nobodies who made the team by outperforming the other nobodies I presume. Gaviglio and Waguespack seem to have earned a longer rope that gives them the privilege of going on and off the taxi squad. Given a chance to fill in because of necessity Merryweather and SRF have done V well in a SSS. When necessity calls for it Zeuch and a few others should also get a chance.
grjas - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#389493) #
A lot of games against the Yankees in September. I hope their injury bug continues.  11 on their list at last count.
I don't care if it's a depleted team we beat. As long as we beat them.
hypobole - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#389495) #
Thanks Cracka.

cascando - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#389496) #
Yes, 10 of their last 20 are against the Yankees. With NYM, the Phillies and Baltimore interspersed. Despite the Yankees' recent struggles, that seems like a really tough end to the schedule. Other than Baltimore, they're all in a playoff spot right now.
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#389497) #
I would be very surprised to see Caleb Joseph because that would cost a 40 roster spot.
Reese has had too many games against lefties because they wanted Jansen to get used to catching the new guys.

I think the plan is to pinch hit once for the catcher in late innings.
That's one way to get Vogelbach in there a bit.
That doesn't work if Reese is the starting catcher, but as long as they don't start McGuire against a lefty, they should have at least one right bat on the bench.

scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#389498) #
The Jays play Boston and Miami while Baltimore, who has the toughest schedule, plays the Rays and Atlanta.
The Tigers are the other team with a chance to pass the Jays and they have lots of games against Cleveland/Twins/WhiteSox.

The other way to look at it is that the schedule is pretty though for New York as well, unless Baltimore and Toronto starts to roll over. 
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#389499) #
Barreto was used like Alford. 5 Runs scored, 0 BB, 0 H.
He went 0 for 10 in 15 games.

bpoz - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#389500) #
Romano is not available most likely for a few days. If the rules permit we should move him to the taxi squad and bring up a pitcher on the Taxi squad or from Rochester.

I keep thinking that SRF is a good candidate to be a hard thrower. But can he throw strikes? Does he have other issues?

vw_fan17 - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#389501) #
It's very interesting to look at the bWAR for the team roster. Not that it's a 100% bulletproof stat at this point in a crazy season, of course.
Ryu at +1.4 leads the team. Drury is at -1.1, so he almost totally cancels out Ryu's excellent pitching - he HAD to be taken off the team, IMHO, if we're even somewhat trying to win.
But, Panik and Shaw are both around -0.5. Getting Bichette back would do wonders. But, we still don't have anyone to play at 3B who won't drag the team down - Drury, Panik and Shaw together (not all at 3B) are -1.9 combined WAR. Add in Wilmer Font at -0.6, and those are the 4 worst War values on the Jays.

Pearson and Thornton are on the IL, Alford is no longer on the team, Waguespack and Gaviglio are long men who aren't expected to be amazing. The two catchers are at -0.2 and -0.1 - a veteran catcher who can hit even a lick would do wonders for the team.

Vlad is +0.4, right behind Julian Merryweather, who is ALREADY at +0.5 in 2 short outings. Rowdy is right at 0. Espinal is at +0.1 (both 0.1 for oWar, 0.1 for dWar). His dWar might to up a bit for 3B, but his oWar will suffer, since he doesn't hit enough for a 3B.

So basically, while moving Vlad to 1B was somewhat inevitable, doing it this year has resulted in quite bad performance from any and all 3Bmen. Shaw was a decent gamble, but it appears he IS done. Any thoughts on who we could acquire / call up to help? Isn't Austin Martin a SS? Try him at 3B? I doubt the Angels would listen on Rendon :-)
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#389502) #
Jays have checked on Andrelton Simmons.

He's a free agent and he does offer some run prevention.
Cost could be fairly low and he would replace Panik at short until Bichette is back.
After that? Who knows.

Simmons is still owed 2.8M for the rest of the year.

scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#389503) #
Shaw is actually not bad. Lots of hard contact, low BABIP.
Could just platoon him against lefties.
Can Biggio play third?
I don't think his arm is amazing.
Can Gurriel? Can Vlad go back there for a bit?

Cracka - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#389504) #
Andrelton Simmons. A highly respected veteran, 4-time gold glover, hits well enough to be an everyday player, excellent at making contact, etc. Makes $15M this season and would probably have cost us something similar to the Walker deal: A Top 20-30 prospect. It doesn't solve the 3B problem, but it means that we would never see Joe Panik at SS again. I would then platoon Shaw & Espinal at 3B, with the ability to pinch-hit for either with Rowdy or Vogel. When Bichette is ready to contribute everyday, something will have to give. Those are the problems you want to have.

dalimon5 - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#389505) #
Shaw is terrible. Hard contact doesn't mean he's "around the corner" from breaking out of his funk. Hard contact can be an indicator of home runs to come and seeing the ball well. Does Travis Shaw qualify as someone that we think will start launching the ball over the fence with any regularity?

Biggio to 3rd, Bichette to 2nd and Simmons to 3rd is best formation if the team is serious about a playoff run. That's very very solid defence in the infield except for 1B where Vlad is just not good.
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#389506) #
There are a dozen teams that could have used Walker, including NYY and Tampa.
The Jays are the only team who can use a shortstop who has been worth 0.1 bWAR over 10 games.

The other part of the equation is just the possibility of a QO.
I don't see paying 18M for one year of Simmons.
Maybe he goes looking for a longer contract and someone bites, but in this market, I don't see it.

To get a prospect in the 25-30 range, the Angels would have to pick up his remaining 3M.

Thomas - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#389507) #
Biggio to 3rd, Bichette to 2nd and Simmons to 3rd is best formation if the team is serious about a playoff run. That's very very solid defence in the infield except for 1B where Vlad is just not good.

I'm not sure, but I think the solid defence might be undermined a little by the strategy of playing two players at 3B and leaving the shortstop hole empty. :)

dalimon5 - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#389508) #
Definitely can't disagree with you there Thomas. Simmons at Short is what was intended, sorry about that!
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#389509) #
It turns out the best we got from the Happ deal is having the Yankees sign Happ to a 2+ year deal.
Ironically, Happ threw 7.1 scoreless innings today just to see Ottavino give up the tying run.

The Yankees are scared to make Happ throw enough innings to qualify his extension.
Fun times.

uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#389510) #
greenfrog - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#389511) #
"It turns out the best we got from the Happ deal is having the Yankees sign Happ to a 2+ year deal."

I'm not sure what the Jays' return in the Happ trade has to do with the Yankees' subsequent decision to sign him as a free agent. The Jays could have traded Happ to a different team and there would have been the same likelihood of the Yankees signing him in free agency that off-season.
Thomas - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#389512) #
Edward Olivares, who was traded by the Jays to San Diego in the Solarte trade, has been dealt by San Diego to Kansas City in exchange for Trevor Rosenthal.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#389513) #
Shaw’s has been the most unlucky player in the team, followed by Jansen and Tellez. I think there is a lot more hope in Shaw than there was in Drury, but I’m not against the team getting a long term answer instead of waiting on Martin or Groshans if some controllable options are out there.
scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#389514) #
They liked him enough to bring him back.

Take Lynn for example. He was just OK in New York, so I would expect them to pass on him this time.

scottt - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#389515) #
Controllable means that the guy is not on a huge free agent deal with no-trade clauses.
Walker is kinda like the Price deal, only way cheaper.
Should they also do a Tulo deal? Absolutely not. That was about getting rid of a bad player on a bad contract.

Cobb is owned another 15M next year and deferred money for several years.
The Jays have cranked up his ERA just ahead of the deadline.

Detroit is in a better position than Baltimore right now, but their rotation sucks.

So, if the season ended now, the Jays would play the Rays?
What sucks is that the Jays could improve and the Rays cool off and the Jays could still end up playing the Rays.
Now, what is great is that the games could be played in a bubble in a neutral site.

Very solid start from Walker.

It seems like the Jays 2  hitting coaches might have had a hand in getting Vogelbach whom they already knew.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#389516) #
Happ had a good start today: 7.1 3 0 0 0 5

He could be a valuable pitcher for the Yankees this season and postseason.
uglyone - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#389517) #
1. SS Bichette 182wrc+
2. 2B Biggio 145wrc+
3. RF Teoscar 166wrc+
4. CF Grichuk 150wrc+
5. 1B Vladdy 124wrc+
6. DH Rowdy 111wrc+
7. LF Gurriel 93wrc+
8. 3B Shaw 67wrc+
9. C Jansen 65wrc+

10. OF Fisher 90wrc+
11. IF Espinal 69wrc+
12. PH Vogelbach 36wrc+
13. C McGuire -37wrc+

Pretty, pretty good.
hypobole - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#389518) #
We're starting to like our team Barry.
hypobole - Saturday, August 29 2020 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#389519) #
2 ex-Jays prospects traded over the past few days. In my mind Olivares was just getting his feet wet in the majors and Barreto is already a bust. So I was surprised to see they are almost exactly the same age, born 8 days apart.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:52 AM EDT (#389520) #
Happ could be valuable, but they still don't want him back next year on his current contract.

Judge will miss another 3 to 4 weeks after aggravating his calf issue.
Torres is back but has struggled at the dish so far.
Same with Sanchez. Kratz was a big part of their walk off win.
At least they got LeMahieu back.
Devei Garcia is debuting today.
I'm still not sure if they were extra careful with him or just keeping him as a hyped trade piece.

bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#389521) #
The trade deadline ends Monday afternoon but injuries and Covid will continue.

So if you want a power lefty bat, for example, get him before the deadline. We have 2 in Vogelbach and Tellez. 1 or both could get covid or injured. DFA is still a way to add players after the deadline I believe.

This is all depth for 25 out of 30 teams that all believe they are still in it. A 4-7 game win streak gets you back into the playoff picture. Double headers are probably killers. Who really knows.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#389522) #
Currently selling: Boston, Seattle, Angels, KC, Pirates
On the edge: Baltimore, Texas, Arizona
Losers but not selling: Cincinnati, San Francisco, Detroit
Pretenders still hanging on: Miami

Texas needs a huge piece to trade Lynn since they want to compete next year.
Robbie Ray is having a terrible year, but apparently some teams want to try him in the pen.
Detroit would sell a pitcher but none have done well.
Baltimore has lots of guys they could trade but they might end up missing the boat.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#389523) #
From David Laurila this morning
"Max Scherzer had 11 strikeouts and didn’t allow a walk in Washington’s 7-1 win over Boston on Friday night. It was Scherzer’s 26th career game with 10-plus strikeouts and no walks. That puts him 3rd all-time."

1st place all-time? Randy Johnson with 37 such games. The K part for the Big Unit made sense to me, but the 0 walks? Turns out my memories are too much of the guy with the Expos and Mariners. The 10 seasons before signing with the DBacks only once did did he have a sub-3 BB/9, with 2 seasons around 5, and seasons of 6.16 and 6.79. But his final 11 seasons were all sub-3 BB/9, including 2 sub-2 BB/9.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#389524) #
A few more Sunday Notes I found interesting.
Double-Double, the 2nd being a quiz:

1. Nick Markakis recorded his 507th career double yesterday, moving him past Babe Ruth and into 58th place on the all-time list.
2. Only one catcher has led the American League or National League in doubles. Who was it?

Finally, comments on the current social justice situation from Alex Cobb, who's brother is a police officer.

scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#389525) #
I thought of Craig Biggio, but he led the league in doubles after he moved off from catcher.

Yeah, Cobb came out with a much better sound bite than Pillar.

It seems that Vlad has lost at least 15 lbs since the beginning of play. He looks pretty good out there. Lots of energy.

Walker was drafted out of High School.
It seems that a reason for the drop in the number of African-American in MLB is the focus on college drafting--which often cost 20K a year even with a scholarship.

He looked a bit stiff but surprisingly quick on defense.

It sounds like Giles could be back now but that they don't want him if he can't pitch a least 3 times a week.

dalimon5 - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#389526) #
Has to be the other Hall of Famer Pudge
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#389527) #
Baltimore traded Tommy Milone to the Braves for 2 PTBNL.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#389528) #
And Boston has traded Mitch Moreland to the Padres.
I'm not going to miss him in those 5 games in 4 days the Blue Jays will play in Fenway.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#389529) #
Not Biggio or Pudge. Pudge did have 47 in 1996, 3rd best in AL.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#389530) #
And Boston has traded Mitch Moreland to the Padres.

Thank you, Preller.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#389531) #
Boston got back Hudson Potts, 3B who can play around, 1 round pick in 2016, 16th overall in Padres system. Only 21 year old. Seasons of 20, 21, 17 HRs.

Jeisson Rosario. A top free international free agent in 2016, 19th overall in Padres system. Plays centre field. Only 20 year old. Bats left. Described as an on base machine.

Pretty good haul.

I still laugh at the Padres signing Hosmer to that huge contract.

uglyone - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#389532) #
Trade for another frontline SP and suddenly this year gets real interesting.
bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#389533) #
Good haul is correct Scottt. However both were signed in 2016 and so would need 40 man protection. SD may or may not have room on the 40 man roster. If exposed Pittsburgh and SF go after them in the rule 5. In the AL Seattle, Boston, Detroit and KC.
bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#389534) #
SD wants to make the playoffs really badly. The Jays not as badly IMO. This is a rebuilding year for the Jays where the goal was to be ok rather than terrible.

8 playoff teams in each league means that making the playoffs is much easier. Miami is still hanging in there. Baltimore stayed in longer than expected. LAA did horribly.

The playoffs start with a 3 game series not the WC sudden death. Washington managed to win it all as a WC but were the 3rd best of 5 teams with 93 wins.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#389535) #
Seems to be a great time to be a seller, especially if you have players with a combination of performing well this year, but at least as importantly, are very low salaried. Has anyone changed hands yet who would have made $5 million if there had been a 162 game season?
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#389536) #
The Jays have the same problem with guys like Adams and Moreno, Kevin Smith and Otto Lopez, but it's something you can resolve during the winter.

An A's player has tested positive while in Houston so today's game is postponed.
A player also tested positive at Houston's alternate site which has been shut down.
This has the potential to affect  the Astros trades.

You have to be very careful when acquiring players from certain states.

scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#389537) #
Players who make big money have more issues.
The good ones who are free agents can be given QOs.
If they are not free agents, they're easier to trade in the offseason.
Not really a good time to trade the bad ones either.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#389538) #
"The good ones who are free agents can be given QOs."

Think teams will be very leery about offering QO's this offseason.
bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#389539) #
These teams should make the playoffs. NYY, Twins, Houston, LAD and Cubs. If any except Twins get knocked out in the 1st round they will be very upset because the WS championship is almost a necessity for them now. Braves too if they make it.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#389540) #
Texas should be able to get an absolute haul for Lynn.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#389541) #
Lynn makes sense for the Jays. In theory, Toronto should be a good trading partner for Texas. We’ll see whether the two teams line up. I wouldn’t give up a top-10 prospect for him. Maybe a couple of prospects in the 11-30 range.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#389542) #
Cards are a wildcard because they have a lot of games to make up.
I expect them to fall, but their playoff odds are 70.3%

It's hard to be upset when all your players are on the IL.

bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#389543) #
The Jays have not acquired any big pieces since AA I believe.

We could win the WS this year but would still be a young team that is maturing. As a still developing team do we capitalize on a surprise early window opening and grab expensive and risky FAs like Ryu if they are willing to sign here and we are willing to pay the big salary?

The plan could be to just graduate wave after wave of prospects. In 2023/24 A Martin, Groshans and O Martinez should be almost ready. If not they are on their way to failing. Pitching Manoah, SWR and Kloff among others. Long shots will make it and top picks won't as history has indicated.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#389544) #
I don't like being in a bidding war with the Padres and the Twins.
I would decide early how high I'm willing to go and bluff after that.

Lynn hasn't started a playoff game since 2014.
He was used out of the pen by the Yankees in 2018 and Boston walked over him.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#389545) #
Looking at FG, the Padres just gave up a 45 and a 40+ for Mitch Moreland. 45 in our system are #7 and #8, Moreno and Kay. 40+ are #9/10/11 Hatch, Hiraldo, De Castro.

Lynn will cost more, much more. And I guess Cleveland sees what's happening and Clevinger is now on the market as well. Teams seem to be unable to afford paying salary, so they're going to have to pay with prospects.
bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#389546) #
Based on reputation NYY should do well in the playoffs. But no Severino yet and Chapman is doing very little.

I would be happy with a Houston/NYY 1st round.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#389547) #
Ryu is a big piece.

The ETA for both Groshans and Martin is 2022.

Orelvis Martinez is just 18.

Right now, every game looks like a playoff game and I expect 2021 to start the same way.

Older players get hurt more than younger player.

bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#389548) #
Not starting an argument about ETA for Groshans and Martin but I looked at Bo. Drafted in 2016 with 82 ABs in the GCL.

On the way to the ML Bo had a 6 week max adjustment period in 2018. I think he destroyed everything in 2017. His injuries have been a bit bad IMO but he recovered fast.

If Groshans and Martin can get to the majors Aug 2022 they are matching Bo or a little ahead by my calculations.

I think we struck gold with Bo.

I need to research the past for the supporting cast of the following. Barfield and Tony came up close to each other. S Green and Delgado also did it.

At the moment Bo, Vlad, Cavan seem to be the guys. Rowdy, Gurriel ans Teoscar seem to be the supporting cast.

John N has explained many times that the transition from 92/93 ( not old yet Alomar, Olerud, D White) to the next group was botched.

bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#389549) #
Jose Martinez from Rays to Cubs.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#389550) #
2 quality prospects from Rockies to the O's for Givens.
85bluejay - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#389551) #
I was hoping for Wilmer Flores or Asdrubal Cabrera, but since those teams appear not to be sellers, maybe the Orioles may move Cobb & Iglesias - if the jays absorb Cobb's entire contract then the return shouldn't be high - we don't know the Jays budgetary constraints.
grjas - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#389552) #
Projected starting years for many prospects may be pushed back by the impact of COVID on the minors. Not even clear what next year will bring.
Magpie - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#389553) #
I was going to give Charlie a cheer for bringing Roark back out for the sixth. Let's just assume I didn't, okay?
Magpie - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#389554) #
Please tell me "Classical Gas" is Mason Williams' walk-up music.
rpriske - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#389555) #
Nice atbat by Teoscar after Shaw got a gift from the ump.
Michael - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#389556) #
A fun and exciting game to watch with a great finish.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#389557) #
I was also wondering if Roark would be pulled after 5. He'd done his job up to that point, although with at least one baserunner every inning, and our bullpen has been terrific. All's well that ends well, I guess.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#389558) #
Wasn't thrilled when Roark struggled in the 6th and there was nobody warmed up and ready to step in.
Maybe Montoyo was trying to save arms for Tuesday, but I would at least have somebody ready before he faces Mountcastle again.

It looks to me like the O's are in full tank now.
They could have kept the lefty in to face the 8-9-and-1 hitter and the best Montoyo could have done is pinch hit McGuire with Vogelbach. Bringing the "closer", who looked like he didn't want to be there, was a curious move.
The ump helped as well.

Oh, well.

85bluejay - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#389559) #
I watched some of the game - when the jays took the 3-1 lead I was sure that Roark would be done - the jays manager often baffles me - is Espinal hurting or else why was he not in defensively in the top of the 9th.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#389560) #
Espinal tweaked something (his hammy?) pulling into 3rd base in the last Red Sox game. Still feeling it a bit per Bucky today.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#389561) #
That ball 4 to Shaw I would guess would be a called strike less than half the time.
Chuck - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#389562) #
They could have kept the lefty in to face the 8-9-and-1 hitter

When Kasparov and Carlsen meet, I am thinking an invitation to Brandon Hyde won't be in order.

Chuck - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#389563) #
Please tell me "Classical Gas" is Mason Williams' walk-up music.

Not the first time somebody asked about that. What are the odds his parents randomly named him Mason?

scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#389564) #
He said he was pretty sure it was just a cramp but has been nursing it like a minor sprain.
Still, it's a bit weird to use him as a pinch runner.

hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#389565) #
Almost forgot about my quiz, which got buried by trades and Jays.

Only one catcher has led the American League or National League in doubles. Who was it?

scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#389566) #
Padres seems to be all in.

Starling Marte is on the block.
He's got a 12.5M option for next year.

Spifficus - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#389567) #

Only one catcher has led the American League or National League in doubles. Who was it?

The highest my first guess finished was 5th, but only off by three, and would have led the other league that year by two.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#389568) #
Didn't Don Slaught have a big doubles year once?
electric carrot - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#389569) #
Joe Mauer?
Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#389570) #
I checked- he did not.
Chuck - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#389571) #
Only one catcher has led the American League or National League in doubles. Who was it?

I had to look it up. I never would have guessed. It was definitely a Brady Anderson WTF type of season.

I had been thinking Simmons or Mauer, good hitters who were not big HR hitters.

Mike Green - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#389572) #
It is not Joe Mauer, although that was a good guess.  The career doubles leader among catchers is Pudge, Ted Simmons is 90 behind him (but never led the league). 
Kasi - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#389573) #
My guess would be one of the MVP catchers who won it earlier in their career. Like Berra or Campanella or Bench. My guess would be Campanella.
uglyone - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#389574) #

Evan Grant
Sources telling me Toronto is actively engaged with Rangers on Mike Minor. ... Also, Rangers trying somewhat aggressively to do a money swap deal with any interested parties on Odor. Obviously, a ton of complications to that.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#389575) #
Jon Lucroy
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#389576) #
My guess on Hyperbole's question was Johnny Bench but it sounds like it was somebody you wouldn't think of. Bengie Molina, perhaps? Ha,ha.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#389577) #
I seen the interest in Mike Minor on TSN earlier. The price for Lance Lynn would likely start with SWR, so swinging a bit lower makes a bit more sense. In a short season, with every win I gain confidence in this team, but maybe not enough to make a major move.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#389578) #
Clevinger looks like he would cost Groshans, based on trade value and then asking for Waters from Atlanta.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#389579) #
I looked up the answer to the catcher who had the most doubles question. I don't think anybody is going to get it.
hypobole - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#389580) #
Actually dalimon did get it (were you a Brewers fan?).

2014 Jonathan Lucroy hit 53 doubles. Not only led the NL, he also bested Miggy's AL-leading 52.
Spifficus - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#389581) #
I forgot about Lucroy, but that makes some sense given his Brewers years, especially given how much he played the year he hit 53.

My guess was Brian Harper, and his 42 in 1990 with the Twins came surprisingly close.
dalimon5 - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#389582) #
I was a Ben Sheets and Brewers fan for a time before discovering Tulo in Denver. My first guess was Pudge. 2nd was Delgado, thinking it was a trick question. I looked up the answer to find Lucroy, although I wasn't surprised because he was the next big thing at one time. Kind of amazing that it wasn't Mauer though.
bpoz - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#389583) #
I liked that Montoyo used SRF for 2 innings. It was a close game.
scottt - Sunday, August 30 2020 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#389584) #
Garcia pitched really well in his Yankee debut: 6IP, 4H, 6K, 0BB.

bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#389585) #
Big trade Mariners and SD.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#389586) #
Not as big as it seems. Padres got a UT player who can catch and hit along with 2 struggling pitchers with high K rates. They gave up 4 prospects.

They are apparently in on Clevinger. That would be a big trade. Indians want a top outfielder.
I would not like the Jays to go there. I like the team as it is.

bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#389587) #
Very interested in what will happen with Lynn and Clevinger. Both are good, cheap and signed for 1 or 2 more years.

Texas is out of it this year and Cleveland looks like they sort of rebuilt already. Cleveland has $ restrictions. Texas wants to/believes that they can compete next/every year. Texas can tank this year but add good pieces and some long term pieces for next year and going forward.

I don't think the Jays are cheap. Their window opened suddenly due to 16 teams making the playoffs. They look like they will make the playoffs without any expensive moves in prospect capital. So getting Clevinger or Lynn is more for next year. You want to compete every year. For the revenue. Taking advantage of the opportunity to get sort of elite talent when it is available (like getting Ryu) is a good strategy. Both pitchers are available.

scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#389588) #
Rosenthal has the Jays trying to get Villar from the Marlins.
That is my favourite move.

Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#389589) #
San Diego did give up a Top 100 prospect and a couple of other intriguing pieces.

It's a fair bit more than most people thought may get traded this deadline or for a utility player/catcher who made his major league debut at 29 about a year ago. I don't think it's off-base to call it big.
bpoz - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#389590) #
Preller is under the gun, just like a few other GMs. Also managers. Nobody is allowed to fail. Mattingley and Farrell for example. This plays right into TB's hands especially if they are out of contention.

TB would trade temporary parts and V good players to load up on top prospects.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#389591) #
So, it's big for the Mariners?
Positional depth is very important after the trade deadline.
The Padres are all in and plugging all the holes. Austin Nola was worth 1.4 bWAR last year and is at 0.8 this year.
Ty France was good for 0.4 bWAR in only 19 games. So, it doesn't look like a huge gain.

They have had 10 seasons under .500 to accumulate prospects.
Still, their lineup is filled with expensive guys like Hosmer, Machado and Myers.
It's great that they have Tatis. It will be interesting to see how long they can keep they window open.

scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#389592) #
Cleveland has Bieber, Civale, Carrasco, Triston McKenzie and they'll bring back Plesac eventually.
They could really use a good outfielder. I don't know what they will do at shortstop once Lindor is gone, but they could probably get a good prospect if they trade him early.

Maybe Gurriel + Groshans gives you Clevinger?
I wouldn't do that.

Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#389599) #
Scott, I believe San Diego plans to use Nola behind the plate primarily.

The Padres were getting -0.3 WAR from their catching position, which was good for 26th in the majors. It was one of only three positions in which they aren't top 10 in WAR. Nola has the second highest WAR of any catcher, behind only JT Realmuto.

They've gone from Hedges and Torrens to Nola and Castro (and Hedges), which is a significant upgrade, even if it came at a cost.
Thomas - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#389601) #
Hahaha....apparently they don't have Hedges anymore. He's reportedly part of Cleveland's return in the Clevinger deal.

San Diego also has Francisco Meija, but he's hurt. He'll presumably split the job in 2021 with Nola, with Castro a pending free agent.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#389602) #
I'd trade Groshans for an elite superstar like Arenado. I wouldn't trade him for a 2 year rental like Clevinger who has shown some fragility.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#389606) #
Villar would be a good acquisition, but his Statcast numbers are way off so far this year.  His EV is way down and his xwOBA is .271.  He's been chasing many more pitches way out of the zone than he's done before (I wonder if he has a vision issue).  The strike zone has been wonkier this year so far, and that might have affected him disproportionately. 
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#389615) #
You don't trade for guys who make 35M a year. You just sign those.
You trade for guys with surplus value.

Otherwise they'll fall back to the mediocre farm system they had for the previous 30 years.

scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#389617) #
Hitting .270 is not good enough for the 8th batter? He's a switch hitter. He runs well. He can steal a base.
He can play 3B against a lefty and shortstop against a righty.

Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#389620) #
wOBA and xwOBA are not scaled to batting average but to OBP. League average wOBA is .315 this year while league average xwOBA is .335  (usually thay are closer than that). Anyways, .271 is a bad number for either metric.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#389621) #
Villar hasn't played 3rd since 2015 & 2016. Look at his DRS when he was tried there and you can see why.

-7 runs saved in 429 innings.

Vlad was arguably the worst defensive 3B in the majors last year and he was -9 DRS in 824 innings.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#389624) #
A's grab Mike Minor.
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#389626) #
And what are the number for Drury, Espinal and Shaw?
scottt - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#389627) #
Villar is hitting .250 with an OBP of .341 from the left side and .302 with an OBP of .302 from the right side.

Panik has a line of .196 .274 .232

rpriske - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#389628) #
That's it for Minor. He has gone to Oakland.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#389632) #
Drury was bad this year, but he's gone finally.
Both Shaw and Espinal (only 6 innings) are 0 DRS this year at 3rd. So they haven't saved or cost us anything at the position.
uglyone - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#389635) #
Yeah I'm not a Villar fan. Seems to be bad defensively everywhere (except a small samlle in CF, interestingly), and his inconsistent bat is subpar on average. Most all his career value comes from baserunning.

I mean, decent bench utility guy but don't pay anything real for him imo.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#389637) #
The thing about Villar is that the club can use him.  As a shortstop now and as the right-handed half of a third-base platoon/pinch-runner after Bo returns. 
James W - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#389638) #
Jays have acquired Robbie Ray from Arizona, according to Rob Longley.
hypobole - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#389639) #
Bergen to Zona
rpriske - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#389651) #
Robbie Ray? Nice.
Mike Green - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#389675) #
Font with a 1 run lead in the sixth.  Feeling lucky?
Rich - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#389680) #
Font with a 1 run lead in the sixth.

Honestly I do not understand the decision to go to Font here at all.  He should be used in the lowest leverage situations possible.
rpriske - Monday, August 31 2020 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#389681) #
A lot of people want to talk about Ray's bad month instead of his solid few years.
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