Hands up, everyone who envisioned Kendall Graveman, closer? Graveman is currently the M's closer (at least part time). Pitching development is #youneverknow.

The Jays lost to the Indians in 2016 because they couldn't hit a lick but it's true, that Royals team was annoying. It seemed like Jays fans were use to the abuse from Ben Zobrist (what could have been) but the inability to get Alcides Escobar out that series was sickening.

Just like with the Jays, 2-3 Royals bats (Merrifield, Perez, and Taylor) are carrying the offense, and pretty much everyone else is struggling.

It's time for at least one of Gurriel, Tellez, and Biggio to start hitting.

The Royals decided that they didn't want to tank like basically all the other teams and are trying to be as good as their budget allows. They are currently 6-4 and in first place in the AL Central.
Incidentally, they won series against Texas and Anaheim, 2 teams who got the better of the Jays.
And they play the Rays next.

Junis is the long man/spot starter. He got one start and 2 relief appearances. He's a sinker/slider guy but he hasn't allowed an earned run in 7 innings so far.
Duffy has been  very good. 2 starts, 12 innings, only 1 earned run.

Santana has only 6 hits, but 2 of them left the parks and he's walked 8 times. That almost brings him to a 100 OPS+.
Perez, Merryfield and Taylor are all right handed. The guys struggling are mostly lefties, Lopez, Benintendi, Isbel, Dyson.
Dozier and Soler are also off to slow starts, but maybe seeing 4 lefties or--even worse--Roark could get them going.

I remember Roark complaining about having no feel for anything because he was held off for a long time after his first outing last year. So, probably not a great spot for him.

That's 2 lefties and 2 righties for KC, so maybe we see an equal platoon of Davis and Palacios.

Kauffman Stadium is a pitcher's park. It's somehow positive for run scored but quite negative for homeruns.

An other interesting thing, with regard to eventually playing in Toronto.

The Quebec provincial public health approved over 1000 people flying into Montreal for Formula One racing.
The Federal public health punted the call to the Montreal Public Health which declined to allow the event.

Exceptions without bubbles seem unlikely.
A vaccine passport solution has not really been discussed yet.

Lorde sung Royals to ridicule conspicuous consumption.

Can the Jays ridicule the Royals?

I could see a vaccine requirement to play in Toronto, with non-vaccinated visiting players having to go on COVID IL's for any series in Toronto. Have a dome bubble (players/coaches/etc. have to stay in the stadium, living at the hotel there) as well.

I could see a vaccine requirement to play in Toronto, with non-vaccinated visiting players having to go on COVID IL's for any series in Toronto.

I can’t see other teams allowing that. It could force some of their best players to the “bench”.

Kay + Roark tonight it looks like.

The Royals are the Ned Flanders of organizations--from the ownership, management, and coaches down to the players--which is one of the primary reasons I dislike them intensely. And then there's that reverse Steve Bartman in right field who caught Moustakas' double in the second inning of game 6 in the 2015 ALCS, which I will never forgive or forget.

Ross Stripling and Jordan Romano to the IL, Anthony Kay and Joel Payamps recalled. Because pitchers are made of glass...

Eight pitchers on the IL. That’s almost a whole staff worth. Why isn't it the likes of Roark that get injured?!

Man I wish Danny Jansen could hit... because he’s made himself into a terrific catcher back there. Still time to figure it out.

Man I take no joy in saying it... but Roark looks totally cooked.

Man, I should also stop beginning every sentence with “Man”.

I think Kay pitched OK, he was unlucky on some balls and not helped by his defence on others.

Hehheheh KC way too excited by these meatballs and are just crushing them foul.

Vlad Jr. baby. That was impressive.

Look at our beautiful boy mash.

Prediction: Vlad will be better next season.

I think it's safe to say the real Vlad has arrived.

I think Vlad is going to go "Wow, I can do this when I get in good shape? What happens if I get absolutely ripped? Let's find out."

Did Tanner Roark just reinsert himself into the rotation? I bet he did.

Alejandro's coming for your job, Danny.

These damn umps.

Ugh

Umpire ruined that at bat with the bad call. Very frustrating but looking around the league lately, bad calls should be expected at this point.

Maybe they need to invest more in scouting pronto.
It feels like we'd be better off playing the Yankees every day.

Really sick of umps making terrible calls in crucial situations. That strike call changed the AB enormously. Not only did it go from 2-1 to 1-2, but made Vlad have to expand his zone. Man, do I love watching Vlad hit.

I'm not sold on Biggio at third. I think playing out of position is also affecting his batting. I don't think that Semien overall is a positive for this year given what I think the effect on Biggio is. I liked this team better with Shaw at third and Biggio at 2nd. The umps call was bad but I think Biggio's & Gurriel's defense is what cost us that game.

Semien isn't the problem. The problem is moving Biggio off second instead of Bichette off short.

I don't think it makes sense to move Bichette off short for someone you signed for one year -- especially where Bichette is so young.

2yr defense stats

SS

Bichette +5.9uzr150, -4.2drs150
Semien +4.8uzr150, -17.5drs150

3B

Biggio -13.4uzr150, -22.9drs150

2B

Biggio +4.6uzr150, +9.6drs150
Semien n/a uzr150, +43.1drs150



Small samples all but it doesn't look like any of these guys are Ace defenders at those slots, unless semien continues on like this at 2B.

At the same time all of them seem decent aside from 3B, where we're not sure any of them can handle it.

Does anyone have a read on Semien's arm yet? Maybe it's worth taking a look at him at the hot corner.

"I'm not sold on Biggio at third. I think playing out of position is also affecting his batting. "

I doubt it. Biggio played 5 defensive positions last season and hit just fine. I just don't think he's quite as good as he looked last year. He seems like a very good utility player to me playing fairly regularly in a lot of places. Jays have a lot of infielders coming up soon (Orelvis/Martin/Groshans) and there are some excellent potential free agent SS/3B (Seager, Story, Correa, Bryant). To me, this is an important year to see if Bo is good enough to stick at SS. He'd be a fantastic 2Bman as well so it's not like his value depends on staying at SS.

It doesn't make sense to move Bichette at that age but it does make sense to do it to Biggio? Or do you think they plan to keep him at third at find a new second baseman after Semien leaves?

I doubt it.

Maybe you're right Glevin

My counter argument is that so far his stats and his comfort level seems to be superior at 2nd than 3rd. So I expect he needs to focus more on his defense. Maybe that's not a big deal -- but I would say for a young hitter new to the league who still has a lot to prove, I would prefer that he has more time to focus on his hitting. And I have noticed when players move to more challenging defensive positions, their hitting suffers. Gurriel is actually quite a good recent example.

I don't think the front office is sold on anything.
Right now Groshans looks like the best bet at 3B and Martin could play CF.
Orelvis Martinez could be a great SS.
I think Biggio is either returning to 2B next year or becoming the super-utility guy who plays everyday.

I'm pretty sure they want 2, preferably 3 left bats in the lineup.
A left bat in a corner spot would be great if Palacios can hit enough to earn a 4th outfielder spot.
They have options and they'll let things sort themselves out.
There is no Russ Adams scenario here.

The Royals, who are in their own rebuild, don't have many young players on their team.
Their pre-arb players are Barlow, Gallagher, Lopez, Singer, Zimmer, Staumont, Isbiz and Bubic.
That's the shortstop, the backup catcher, an outfielder, a starting pitcher and a bunch of arms in the pen.

His stats aren't superior at 2b though. Last year he had better batting stats when he wasn't playing 2b. I think fans often tend to look for causation or patterns too often when it's just noise. I think it is more that teams have a better plan of attack on his batting profile and he hasn't caught up to it. I think the question of whether he can hit velocity is a real thing and he'll need to improve to respond to that line of attach. I could see the moving the mound back be something he would really respond to, but thats not going to be here for at least a couple years so he better figure things out now.

There's little doubt Biggio is better defensively at 2B. He's played a lot more there, and his skillset is better suited to 2B.

That said, I think Semien wanted to stay in the middle infield, and the Jays gave him that assurance; and even with the defensive step down moving Biggio from 2B to 3B, I'd do that deal every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I doubt the move is affecting Biggio's hitting - although he's swinging at more pitches outside the zone, and if someone on the coaching staff told him to be more aggressive, they need to be fired immediately.

Bichette is one of the two franchise players on the team, and he just turned 23. Biggio is already 26 and doesn't come with near the upside that Bo does with the bat. Moving Bo off SS is a very delicate decision, especially if Bo wants to stay there. He's not 2019-20 Vlad at 3B defensively. He's not great at short, but the potential for improvement with his age and defensive tools is there. Biggio with a deadened baseball may not be as good offensively as he was the past two seasons, and he's not elite defensively at 2B, so if he can move around while giving the Jays more options, then that's a valuable role. The team and fans shouldn't put him in the same group as Vlad/Bo. He's not on that level.

Palacios is a sleeper. Drafted 2016 and stayed healthy. 197 ABs. Lansing 2017 but only 368 ABs because of injury. 2018 was healthy 510 ABs but most at Dunedin 507 ABs. Was not moved fast for some reason. 2019 only 286 ABs, all in AA. Injuries again. When not injured he plays very well it seems.

I think fans often tend to look for causation or patterns too often when it's just noise. I think it is more that teams have a better plan of attack on his batting profile and he hasn't caught up to it.

Sorry Kasi, this really just made me laugh. What you say in the first sentence is a direct attack on what you say in the second one.

His stats aren't superior at 2b though. Last year he had better batting stats when he wasn't playing 2b

I'm not trying to be a jerk here bu the stats you mention above I think are sss noise.

Well yes and no. How many times do we see fans hung up on where a player bats. Or talk about their confidence in certain situations. Many times those observations say as much about the person observing as the player themselves. If a fan sees a superior option elsewhere then they'll look for things to nitpick in the player.

But the difference between what you said (Biggio doesn't seem comfortable and you think he hits better at 2b) and what I'm saying (Biggio has problems with high velocity) is one is supported by the facts and one is a mix of subjective interpretation of the state of a player and stats that show the opposite. I have given up on trying to "read" the state of players. One I don't watch a lot of games since I don't have sportsnet and two I think it is futile to try and interpret the mental state of players. It could be just as likely that his struggles at the plate have carried over on to the field instead of the field affecting his batting like you suggest. I don't know and unless he comes out and tells us none of us will know.

I prefer to just analyze the stats and the stats say on Biggio as a hitter that he has a couple flaws. I don't think it is a shock that 2 of our hitters that are the most down this year from last are the 2 that have an actual statistical issue with high velocity. (Gurriel along with Biggio) For Biggio this was doable as long as he had elite strike zone judgement. That seems to have slipped a bit so far this year so he'll have to adjust.

"My counter argument is that so far his stats and his comfort level seems to be superior at 2nd than 3rd."

You said this. You stated that his stats are superior at 2b. I agree with you its likely SSS noise for any difference, Biggio barely has a year of stats in his career so far. So there is no proof that his stats are better or worse at 2b. But if you make a statement like that you should have some stats to back you up on it.

Sorry Kasi, to be more clear what I meant to say is that when he was the regular 2nd baseman (like last year) his stats are better than when he is the regular 3rd baseman (this year so far.) I know it's early and the sample is still small. But I am suspicious of the trend given the general trend that I've witnessed in both Gurriel and Guerrero when they are playing mostly the difficult defensive positions.

Let's not forget that it's only 2 weeks into April.
Back in 2019, most everybody had slow starts.
Tellez seems to be warming up. Gurriel tool.
Same should happen with Biggio.
It's mostly a matter of getting the timing right.

The defense is another issue.
Defense improves by practicing.
Some guys learn faster, other need more time or hit their limit.
Biggio has played 3B before. It's called the hot corner for a reason.
The ball gets to you there faster than at second base.
For now, I'm just concerned about his hand.

Yeah I'd agree with scottt here in that it is very early. Every batter is going to have weeks where they struggle. It just looks worse when it is early in the season. Hopefully when Springer gets back the lineup gets stronger and it helps everyone perform a bit better.

It's hard with young players because everytime we see one of them struggle we go back to thinking of Lawrie or Snider or Arencibia, other guys who came out of the minors with a ton of promise or hot only to struggle. Hopefully our young guys are better able to adjust then what we saw in the past.

I checked a preview post from a KC site and they were weary about the weather.
It's an 8:00 start, so if it gets delayed I'll probably just check the highlights later.

More like worried.

Postponed tonight; Day/Night doubleheader tomorrow at 2 pm & 6 pm.

The shortened 7 inning games add an extra dose of intrigue, though the bullpen isn't exactly overworked right now.

Game postponed. Two seven inning games tomorrow, one at 2pm and the other at 6pm.

On the subject of Biggio and if he’s negatively affected by playing 3rd base, I think it’s worth noting that in his breakout 2018 season in AA he started 22 games at 1B, 68 at 2B, and 34 at 3B.

On the subject of hitting high velocity, I don’t know how to look it up myself and I’m curious - do the numbers say he’s been bad on pitches thrown 94+, or that he’s been bad facing pitchers that average 94+ on the fastball?

https://bluejaysnation.com/2021/02/10/cavan-biggio-and-hitting-high-velocity/

I think it says the former, not the latter. Biggio actually career wise has been good against fastballs on average, just not against 95+ heat, where he is quite a bit worse than league average.

They can activate one of the taxi squad guys for the second game.
That doesn't really work as even though Espinal could play 3B in the second game, the lefty is pitching the first game.

Pity it wasn’t last night’s game instead as Jays could have skipped the Kay start and gone to Matz for game 1.

My concern with Biggio at 3rd is his mediocre arm strength. A good arm can compensate for poor first steps, misreads and a bunch of other sins. He has to play the ball crisply for every hit in order to make the throw to first in time. That is challenging enough for a regular 3rd basemen much less someone who has played there less frequently.

The actual problem has often been that the ball gets on him too quickly or that he can't bare hand it properly.
There's a factor of luck in all of that too. There hasn't been that many late throws.
He already hurt his right hand once during the spring. 
We'll have to see if he gets better during the year, which will determine his role next year.

They are starting Milone? The strategy must be to improve draft position

Please put your hand up if, one month ago, you had David Phelps, TJ Zeuch, Anthony Kay and Tommy Milone all starting at least one games for the Blue Jays by April 17.

........

And keep your hand up if you thought Boston would be in first place and the Yankees would be in last.

I guess the net effect of starting Milone is that Ryu is pushed to the first game of the two game series with the Red Sox and also preserves his arm for innings later in the season. So, who will follow Milone? Thornton? There's so many pitchers on the IL that I'm having trouble following who's left.

No team seems strong enough to dominate the AL. NYY is off to a slow start. Oakland has picked up very well since their slow start. We need a bigger sample size.

SSS for sure, bpoz. It's encouraging that the Yankees starting pitching is what we hoped it would be, so far, at least. After last year's shortened schedule, this year will be a real war of attrition. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Alex Manoah or SWR at some point later on.

Looking forward to a week where more guys come off the IL than go on the IL. What a brutal start.

The pen right now is
closer: Dolis
setup: Phelps (could still be sore, but not on the IL),  Borucki
Mid: Castro, Thornton, Mayza, Payamps
LR: Roark, Kay, Milone

Assuming Ryu and Zeuch start in Boston, Matz, Ray and Ryu can start against the Rays.

Not much to worry about the bullpen, because of the extra days.
Just need to get some work for everyone.

They can get an extra player from the 40 for the second game.
Bergen, Tice and Espinal come to mind.
They could dress someone up, just in case.

Espinal has been added for todays doubleheader. In game one he starts at third, Biggio was injured in the last game.

It's two 7 inning games today.

Gregor Chisholm says he is hearing that Romano could be back soon after his 10 days on the IL but Merryweather will be out for a while.

Probably impossible to post a Jim Bowden suggestion without at least one ad hominem attack, but here's his trade idea from The Athletic anyway.

Marlins trade Pablo Lopez to the Jays for Grichuk and Kirk.

"López, 25, went 6-4 last year with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.09 FIP. He really knows how to pitch. He has averaged 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.8 walks per nine since the start of 2020. López’s fastball is mostly 92 to 94 mph, and he throws an above-average change-up, his best secondary pitch. His four-pitch mix also includes a curveball and a cutter....López’s ability to change speeds and eye levels with precision would provide a different look for the rotation."

Per FG, he's not arb eligible till next year. ROS projections vary from ZIPS 1.8 WAR to Steamer 2.8 WAR.

Not the biggest fan of his but that is a reasonable trade offer. I would consider it for sure, I like young starters with 93-94mph fastballs and some good secondaries. Even if Jansen doesn't work out we still have Moreno and there are other options further away. And McGuire is still a decent backup. You could replace Kirk with someone like Groshans or such and it would be fine too.

Interesting, in the rules I have, if the doubleheader is to make up a game that was supposed to be played the day earlier, the 27th player is only for the second game of the doubleheader.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/27th-man

According to this, you can use the 27th man for the day of the doubleheader. If you are continuing a suspended game with the regular game to follow, the 27th man is NOT eligible for that continuation, but IS eligible for the regular game.

So before last night's game was over, San Diego brought their second baseman in to pitch and put a starting pitcher in left field?

Cool.

A very zesty performance by the umpire today. Lots of human infallibility. His plate is a foot high and two feet wide.

Oops,I meant fallibility.

What a great swing by Vlad. Pulls his hands in and still stings it. Awesome.

Jansen seems so snake bit every time I see him bat. Robbed at the wall just now, too bad he would have almost no trade value because I think he could still turn it around. I've seen a few ABs this year where the pitcher suddenly throws 3 or 4 nasty pitches on the corners to him after struggling earlier. Matz great start, Guerrero hits a hr, just finish it off please.

Man so much rides on Matz continuing on like this. Keep it up.

Needless to say, I would have preferred to see Matz-ah out for the seventh.

Espinal was excellent at 3B today. He made at least three exemplary plays that Biggio would have struggled with. I'm not sure how this is going to play out during the season - Biggio will hopefully improve - but right now there is a huge gap defensively between the two.

Not sure all the heat should be on Biggio like that.

Biggio 86wrc+
Semien 86wrc+

I guess it's because the talk is about defense.
Before the game, Semien is at 0.7 bWAR and Biggio is at 0.0 bWAR.
Not that a couple of weeks means a lot.

Espinal looked great in defense.
Davis looked good stealing, hitting, making good catches. It's a good park for him.
Matz looked great pitching. So far, he's a huge steal.
However, it's annoying that Winckowski is a Red Sox.
That reminds me that Olivares is a Royal. Best of luck to him, still.

Yankees are now 5-8.
They'll be good tomorrow as it's a Cole start.
I wonder if they'll drive him into the ground. Good for 30+ starts?

Yeah but put biggio at 2b and semien at 3b and see what their war is.

I’d like to see what Espinal can do for a while. He looked very solid today. Hand injuries can be a nuisance at bat and in the field so Biggio may be on the mend for a few games. Panek’s been playing alright so they’ll probably default to him but it would be nice if they at least alternated while Biggio’s out.

Jansen seems so snake bit every time I see him bat.

Won't matter so much when he becomes Kirk's backup. By the end of May, I think.

Did Milone learn a new pitch in 2020? He never did strike out hitters before that.

when I looked at his pitch splits on fangraphs, it looks like he's throwing in every way imaginable (2mph off his fastball, higher percentage of changeups). Basically, he's gone Full Moyer.

Basically, he's gone Full Moyer.

Well, Milone's a career 51-51, 4.54 - at the same age Moyer was 72-79, 4.44. He had 197 wins left in his arm. Wouldn't it be hilarious if....

The Jays are going to be very good once they get everyone healthy and the promotable prospects are promoted. I could see a 2015-like tear happening in the second half of the season (if not before).

Biggio career is value neutral defensively. Semien has 6 WAR from defense. He’s just a substantially better fielder and likely would be a better 3b too. Anyway batting numbers are early and I expect both of them to over 100 WRC by end of season.

Milone actually throws significantly harder than Moyer did, if you can believe that. I promise it's true. I shall never forget that wonderful day at the Dome, back when they used to post pitch types and velocity on the scoreboard.

FASTBALL
79 MPH

Jamie Moyer, ladies and gentlemen. He won 269 games with that stuff.

Oops meant OPS+ there but anyway I think both should be in the bottom half of the order after some combination of Bichette, Springer, Vlad, Hernandez and likely Gurriel.

I wonder how hard Moyer was throwing his fastball in '97 (his age 34 season). Though maybe that's wondering how much bigger the Jumbo Shrimp is.

Hot take! Milone isn’t actually that good.

Milone isn’t actually that good.

You can't let us hold onto these wild fantasies? You have to shatter our illusions? Can't you wait for bitter reality to do the dirty work for you?

Geez, it turns out that Vladdy actually runs pretty well when he's not lugging an extra 40 pounds.

Smithers, who's that young go-getter in Sector G?

That's Vladimir Guerrero, sir.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

carry on.

"Biggio career is value neutral defensively."

Biggio career

2B: +1.8uzr150
3B: -13.5
1B: -80.1
OF: -23.8

Semien:

SS: -0.4
2B: -1.9
3B: -3.7

"Smithers, who's that young go-getter in Sector G?
That's Vladimir Guerrero, sir."

Uglyone Liked this post.

Seeing Brentz in the game reminded me of the 2013 draft. Starting at the 6th round, the Jays scouting department may have had the greatest run of drafting of all time (considering the rounds and that the 6th thru 10th round picks were “punted picks” to save on bonuses). In the next 11 picks they came up with 8 major leaguers and another (Greene) who was a good enough prospect to have legitimate trade value. Only Girondo was a “cup of coffee” major leaguer (so far).

Just going off baseball reference. I’m sure you can find some stat that shows Biggio is better but eye test pretty much shows who is better pretty clearly and most stats support it.

Yeah, I posted something almost the same a couple of weeks ago.

https://www.battersbox.ca/comment.php?mode=view&cid=395792

This seems hard to believe, but per a Rob Longley tweet there have been only 5 pitchers in Jays history to win their first three starts of the season:
- Musselman in 1988
- Clemens in 1997
- Jansen in 2010
- Buehrle in 2014.... AND NOW:
- Matz in 2021

A cuttlefish to you:)

• Jimmy Key 1987 won his first 3, then the team was shutout in his 4th start.
• In 1984 in Dave Stieb's first 8 starts the Jays won every game - he was 5-0 by winning his first, no decision in the 2nd, then winning his next 4.  No decision the next 2 but the team won both before he lost in his 9th start (team shut out).  He should've won the Cy Young that year, led in IP, sub 3 ERA, 7.9 WAR but the drunk voters gave it to Willie Hernandez who had 32 saves and 1 blown for the Tigers and 5 other guys (Dan Quisenberry who was actually a really good closer, and 4 other starters who had decent but nowhere near as good seasons as Stieb did, and Jack Morris with a 3.60 ERA and 109 ERA+ got as many votes as Stieb - geez were voters in the 80's dumb)
• 1980 Stieb had a no decision first start (6 IP 1 run), then won his next 3 starts (all complete games, 3 runs total allowed in them), then in July he had 3 straight complete game wins again but only 1 ER allowed in them total.  At age 22.  14 complete games 242 IP.  Yikes.  But just 4 K/9 IP.  Different era.

Looking up Bref, Jays are 6th in runs scored in the AL, 5th in OPS .700 and first in ERA, 3.12 as a team.
Yanks are 13th in runs scored and 5th in ERA.
Rays are 8th in runs scored and 12th in ERA.
Red Sox are 1st in runs scored and 4th in ERA.

Pitching as been as good as can be hoped, overall, but we should expect hitting to improve. 

Bit of good news from Longley yesterday:
"Also hearing that Teoscar Hernandez is no longer experiencing COVID-19 symptoms after testing positive earlier in the week."

Jay Bruce is retiring after today's game - the Yankees will play DJ LeMahieu at 1b and Rough Ned Odor at 2b.

first in ERA, 3.12 as a team.

Huh. Never would have guessed. Impressive given the injuries.

Hopefully the black hole bats heat up as there a lot of them - Semien, Biggio, Tellez, Gurriel, both catchers. Some of those have shown signs in recent games -eg Kirk. Hernandez and Springer returns would certainly help.

The ERA is sweet but even the slightly above average FIP and xFIP are legit encouraging.

Interestingly the actual total RA/9 is right in line with the fippies.

Injury updates:

Springer is running and doing all baseball activities

Romano and Chatwood are doing well and should be back when their 10 days are up

Stripling, Merryweather and Hatch are progressing more slowly

Pearson to throw BP on Tuesday

Hernandez feeling good after his COVID. Should be back after 10 days, as long as he tests negative

Fun stuff at FG.
Whose had the worst defense in MLB? UZR/150 says the Detroit Tigers at-13.6.
Whose had the best defense in MLB? DRS says the Detroit Tigers at +11.

Umm..OK.

Who'se not whose.

Did we ever find out why Singer wasn't signed when the Jays drafted him in 2015?

Who's done? Me.

High schooler? Didn't get enough money, I'd guess.

Singer's fastball tails like a screw ball. So far the Blue Jays are reacting to everyone of them as if the ball is 6 inches away from where it is caught. 

I believe there was a dispute over possible injury after his medical evaluation by the Jays.

The magical mechanical changes in the spring for Ray appear to be another “best shape of his life” story. It’s too bad, the stuff he can get over the plate is tough to hit.

Can anyone believe we got 5 shutout innings from Ray today? That had to be the craziest 5 shutout innings I've seen.

Or being injured just took him out of the groove he was in. So far he’s pitched 10 innings and allowed 2er on 1hr. I’m not too upset at that and I think Walker will be able to tweak his routine to get his walks down back to preseason levels. He’s never going to be a sub 3/9 BB guy but within that he’s fine since his stuff is so good and he battles.

Can anyone believe we got 5 shutout innings from Ray today?

It was hard to watch. Ray found whatever it was he needed to find with the last batter he faced in the third inning, and was dominant after that - I think 20 of his last 26 pitches were strikes. It's an utter miracle he survived long enough to do it, of course.

An now Zeuch shows that if you change pitchers you will find the guy with nothing at some point. He is probably down 1 minute after this game to create room for someone, anyone.

Putting TJ Zeuch in a tied game was a strange move. I understand the bullpen may be a little depleted, but I'm surprised there wasn't a better option or the Jays didn't make a move if the bullpen was that taxed.

I thought Mayza would pitch a second inning, he hadn't pitched in five days. Borucki threw just 9 pitches yesterday, Dolis 12. Surely both of those were available along with Phelps.

Zeuch is useless and shouldn’t be on this team. He has no out pitch and also poor control. Send him to the minors and see if he can find a breaking ball. Til that happens he’s just a ticking time bomb every time he’s out there.

That being said you’re not going to win many games scoring 0 runs and that is the bigger problem now. Pitching has held together remarkably all things considered. Plus I don’t even get the complaint on finding someone who doesn’t have anything. Mayza is not going to pitch two innings so someone else is going to be up. They got five out of Ray which is more than I thought they would.

Fie upon you, regression to the mean.

Fie.

It surely wasn't the plan for T.J. Zeuch to have pitched more innings than anyone on the staff except Ryu and Matz. Tell me that wasn't the plan.

He’s basically been the mop up long man and occasional spot starter. Why wouldn’t he have more innings pitched than one inning relievers? Now the question is is he the one to be in that position. I think Thornton should but his injury in preseason pushed that back. I think Kay would have been better as well. Or even Hatch if he had been healthy. Anyway why wouldn’t the swing man have more inning pitched?

So to answer your question I don’t think Zeuch should have these innings. But the guys who should got injured so he’s what they had unless they brought someone like Manoah or others up. So it fell to him and he’s done as much as his limited skills let him but I hope Thornton, Kay and Hatch push him out soon.

I think Roark as limited as he is would fit better in that spot. So hopefully soon we don’t have Zeuch and either have Roark or someone better as the long man.

So who gets the Wednesday start? Thornton? Roark? Pete Walker himself?

Submit your best guess!

I’d guess Kay + Thornton. I don’t think Hatch or Pearson will be ready yet. Would that mean Matz on Thursday and Ray Friday? Unsure.

I'd normally be skittish about starting two southpaws at Fenway. But the Jays have run six different LH pitchers so far, Borucki's ERA is 3.86, Milone's is 3.24 and everybody else is below 2.00. So let's hear it for the Bend Sinister.

Well, that sucked. Score no runs and you never win. Zeuch might have just cost himself a ML job. Of course, other issues appeared as well but I'm sure the Jays want a more reliable arm than his right now. Who that would be is unknown. Pitchers in the minors are Travis Bergen, Elvis Luciano, and Ty Tice before you get into non-40 man guys. 2 on 60 day IL, 6 on 10 day IL. Sheesh - 8 injured pitchers. Bergen is my bet for who gets called up with Zeuch going down. The Jays would use the 'fresh arm' excuse but it is a mix of that plus ineffectiveness (6.75 ERA and has looked worse).

Boy it will be nice to get guys like Pearson, Stripling, Romano, Merryweather, Hatch, and Chatwood back at some point. As long as Ryu doesn't go down (knock on wood). And even with all those guys down the Jays have the best ERA in the AL (3.07). Who'd have bet on that? Sadly the offense has sucked (see shutout today as an example).

Getting Springer and Hernandez back this weekend would go a long way to strengthening the lineup.

I’d be pleasantly surprised if Hernandez and Springer come back hitting after such a long layoff, especially Springer. The rest of this lineup- other than Guerrero and Bichette- have to start producing regardless of when the other 2 arrive. The rest really have been atrocious, making mediocre pitchers like yesterday’s look like Cy Young winners.

And seriously Montoyo, drop the stupid bunt for strike 3 nonsense. It’s deflating to the fans and the team.

After 16 games the team OPS+ is 92. Jansen is -20, by far the worst on the team. Sub 50's are Davis, Tellez, Gurriel, Hernandez. 3 guys we were counting on to provide power are all stinking up the joint. Davis is no shock. Kirk, Semien are in the 70's which is poor for them. Biggio in the 80's which is 'meh'. Palacios and Panik in the 90's which is very solid for backups. Grichuk 116 which is better than many expect. Bo 131, Espinal 150 (!!!) in just 8 PA, Vlad at 235 (guess losing that weight really helped).

Espinal has more hits than Danny Jansen. (3 vs 2) and 1 less than Kirk despite having just 8 PA vs 31 for Jansen and 29 for Kirk. 3 walks for each of the catchers, 0 for Espinal.

Vlad already has 1.2 WAR this year. Ryu, Matz, & Merryweather at 0.7.
Negative WAR for Tellez & Gurriel (-0.3), Zeuch at -0.5, Roark & Kay -0.3, and Stripling -0.2

Couple of final thoughts on KC. Thanks in part to the Jays, they now have the best record in the AL.
And Sal Perez is really good. Combined 2020/2021 there are 192 players with 200 PA's. The wRC+ leaders - Soto, Acuna, Trout, Freeman, Cruz, LeMahieu, then Sal Perez at #7. His 307 ISO in that span ranks 4th behind only Acuna, Voit and Trout.

Most teams are struggling to hit at this point. Just look at the Yankees.
Boston go off to a good start because the key players are hitting.
Note to Blue Jays pitchers, maybe just walk J.D. Martinez.

Keith Law has a very good scouting report on Louisville catcher Henry Davis over at the Athletic.  My only comment is that Hank Davis makes a better baseball name unless your last name is Aaron.  I guess we are not allowed to retire first names...

I'm still not a believer in Sal Perez.

He's had a great 51 games over 2020-21, but prior to that he put up an OBP of .295 over 3579 PAs from 2011-2018.

He hasn't changed at all either, since he's accumulated a total of 6 walks over his last hot 215 PAs since returning from injury.

Semien has been slumping of late.
In San Diego, Kim is batting .211 with OPS+ of 65.

I thought Pat and Dan made many mistakes on the broadcast yesterday.
Dan said the Hoses had beaten Boston 3-2 twice.
Pat said the Royals defense had been perfect.
Pat kept calling the Royals a young team, but Perez, Santana, Merrifield and Taylor are 30 or over. Dyson is 36.
Erwin Santana  is 38! Greg Holland, 35, Wade Davis, 35.
And then they call Semien and Panic veterans at 30.

Interesting read by Nick Ashbourne at Sportsnet on breakout bullpen candidates with our injury situation.
He picks Castro as the man to watch, and with that curve he's got, I think I agree. 

Check out to the movement on the curve in the GIF he posts if you read the article, it's ridiculous. 

The pitch, which he throws 58.1 per cent of the time, has less drop than your average curve (minus-13 per cent), but way more horizontal break (plus-67 per cent).
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/potential-breakout-relief-candidates-blue-jays-bullpen/

That's true, but once Hernandez returns from the Covid IL in a few days, Castro is headed back out of the 40 Roster.
Unless they drop someone else, who would have to clear waivers.

OPS over the last 7 days:
Guerrero 1.310
Tellez .895
Bichette .811
Semien .453
Grichuk .387

I had not noticed how cold Grichuk has gotten.
Nobody else has enough AB to qualify.

That's our Grichuk.  Hot as fire for a bit, then cold as ice.  First 11 games a very good CF (333/386/513 - 899 OPS), since143/200/143 - 343 OPS.  Hopefully Springer is back before Grichuk gives back all that he gained in that first week.

KC keyed on that and pitched around Vlad. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston do the same. I hope The Tellez turnaround is real and mirrors last year when he also started slowly then took off.

...sorry meant to say KC pitched around Vlad in the last game. And Grichuk flailed.

Team stats are such that they currently represent a typical starter's fulltime season. So what familiar player collectively characterizes the Jays' season thus far?
586 PA, 230/298/375, 92 OPS+

My first though was Goins: 228/278/333, 65 OPS+, but he's nowhere near good enough.

Darwin Barney? 246/294/341, 73 OPS+. Getting closer. Need a little more pop.

Manny Lee? 255/305/323, 73 OPS+. Nope, no better.

Buck Martinez? 225/284/343, 73 OPS+. No improvement.

Ernie Whitt? 249/324/410, 99 OPS+. This is much closer, but Ernie was too good. Need to come down a step or two.

I'm sure our representative player is out there. I just can't find him.

They're walking, hitting homeruns, striking out a ton.
I'd guess pre-retirement Bautista.

I cheated and used Fangraphs career leaderboards to sort by wRC+ to find any familiar names.

Probably the closest Jay I found was Maicer Izturis at .269/331/372, wRC+ 91.

Still not perfect, as Maicer has too much BA and OBP compared to this team, but the power matches.

A comp with a shape that fits the current Jays is actually Dustin Ackley at 241/304/367, wRC+ 90.

Although Ackley only struck out 17.9% of the time and I'm afraid to look up what the Jays 2021 rate is (24.2% btw)

They're walking

Not so much. Their BB/PA ratio is second worst in the AL. They are league average for HR and for K.

Pre-retirement Bautista is actually a very decent guess.

Bautista's last two seasons and 1085 PAs come out to .203/323/371, wRC+ 90, K% 25.9, BB 13.9%.

So washed up Bautista is pretty close to shaping thie team's current offense, only Jose had a lot less contact and a few more Ks, but way more walks.

On the pitching side of the ledger, the Jays rank 2nd in RA/G but their FIP is half a run higher (cue the ominous music). Their HR and BB rates are league average but their K rate is near the bottom of the league.

A regression (duh, really?) seems to be coming, though that's obvious given three starters with sub-2 ERAs (accounting for a third of the team's IP).

I think a realistic hope is that the team's pitching settles into the middle of the pack and the offense wakes up and gets going, especially when reinforced by those on the IL.

Checking BR there is a nice page with career stats for Jay hitters. So using career stats as a Jay only...

No Jay hitter has had a 672 OPS lifetime, but 2 have 671's including current Jay Josh Palacios (292/379/292 over 30 PA). Doug Ault is 234/309/362 which is close.

So get dead on I put the stats into a spreadsheet and did absolute spread from current Jay figures. The closest is Jayson Werth (just 104 PA as a Jay) who hit 234/298/383 for a net spread of 12 points (bonus for being dead on for OBP). For significant playing time you get Buck Martinez (#2 overall) who hit 222/297/378 for a 12 point spread as well.

Dead on Avg: Charlie O'Brien, Alan Ashby, Billy McKinney
Dead on OBP: Jayson Werth, Willie Aikens, Chris Woodward, Darwin Barney
Dead on Slg: Kelly Johnson, Ozzie Virgil, Woody Williams, John Hattig

Lots of catchers there. So the Jays basically are a team of backup catchers right now on offense. Ugh.

This got me thinking.... (always dangerous).

• Best offensive team ever 2006 284/348/463 810 OPS - closest career Jay Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (off by 13 ponts)
• Worst offensive team ever 1981 (by 50 points) 226/286/330 617 OPS - closest career Jay Rick Cerone (6 points), closest current Jay Danny Jansen (58 points off).
• Matches closest to team all time (260/316/418 734 OPS - missing HBP/SH/SF data but fairly close) - Junior Felix off by 8 points, closest current is Alejandro Kirk (53 points off)

Fun thing. Thanks for the idea Chuck.

Doug Ault is 234/309/362 which is close.

And perfect. And apt. There's a whole alpha to omega, circle of life thing going on.

Ault was, of course, a star in the Jays' first ever game. And now the team is honouring his career slash line in their perverse way.

That first ever game featured a starting pitcher named B. Singer. And Sunday, their last ever game (so far!), also featured a starting pitcher named B. Singer.

For a final look at this series...umpire scorecards...





Not bad, 2 games where the umps favored Toronto, 2 favoring KC. All via Umpire Scorecards on Twitter

I'm surprised Chris Woodward's lifetime OBP as a Jay is so terrible at .298.

My memory remembers him as a decent offensive SS in an ERA of crazy offense and the Ash/Ricciardi era never-ending search for a starting SS.

The x runs for team A is to  be taken with a grain of salt.
+ 0.24 runs for Toronto when Toronto scored none is very subjective.

First game, very wide strike zone but the top of the zone is a ball.
The 3 pitches mentioned were not the worse ones.
The worse one was the strike that's way outside.
That was to Guerrero with a 1-1 count and represented the go ahead run in the 9th with 2 outs.
The borderlines low strikes called balls were pitches that Perez brought up to his chest.
With that much "framing", it's hard to fault the ump for calling those balls.
All these strikes way outsides are terrible. Nothing the hitter can do with those. Totally unfair.

Kay pitching to right handed bats was throwing inside a lot and the strike zone was not advantaging him one bit.

The second one is the Matz game. +0.69 runs for KC?
Total opposite of game 1. High strikezone and nobody got the outside corner.
That helped Matz as he's not a slider guy and was working mostly fastball/changeup.

Third one is the Joe Bullpen game started by Milone.
The outside corner was fine on this one but the top of the zone was a ball.
Like the top third of the strike zone didn't exist.
That was 100% consistent.
Payamps had one bad pitch and that was that.


4th one was the Ray/Zeuch game.
Zeuch coming out in late relief had no movement on his sinker and couldn't locate it.
Jays were not seeing Singer's fastball coming back and couldn't tell his slider for his 2-seamer.
No 1 worse pitch, Perez grounded out on the next pitch. Game was already decided at that point.
No 2 was really bad, strike called a ball. Singer came undone at that point.
Tellez reached on a bad throw from 3rd base and Kirk walked.
Panik grounded the first pitch he saw, Davis managed a flyball with 2 strikes on him and Palacios grounded out on the first pitch as well.
No 3 was in favor of KC.
Hard to see a 0.73 run advantage in that one.
Ray walked 6 in 5 shutout innings, but I don't remember him getting any dubious calls.