Thanks Gerry.

Luciano?

Nice to see the Jays being aggressive with Martin. Alek Manoah going to AAA is big too given he last pitched in A- in 2019. 1 H 0 R 0 BB 15 K's in spring will open eyes (in 7 IP) although the 3 HBP and 1 wild pitch is a bit concerning (especially for opposing batters). That was against AAA+ level competition too (9/10 on quality scale where 8 is AAA on average, 10 ML) I could imagine him coming up by August if that is at all for real. I'm so glad we are going to get AAA and AA games this year (and eventually A+ and A-) as it makes it so much easier to know how the kids are doing.

Sucks about Pardinho. By my count, he was the 4th $1 million+ 16 yr old IFA pitcher we signed over the past decade along with Cardona, Mesa and Osuna. Osuna is the only one who made it past A ball and despite uo's best efforts, still topped out as a reliever, albeit an elite RP.
Since Pardinho, the IFA group seems to be targeting 16 yr old MI's with the larger bonuses which seems money better spent.

Pearson activated and heading to AAA.

All the home games in Dunedin will now start at 19:37.
Let's call that the Joe Panik start time.

Seems like a bad sign that NP got optioned to AAA today and a poor indication of how the Jays think NP is pitching right now given his bad performance in 2020 as well.

I like the idea of Pearson going to AAA to start. He needs innings before he will be ready for ML hitters so this makes a ton of sense. At 169 official days in the majors (remember, pro-rated for 2020) it won't gain a year for the Jays, but could delay super-2 status or even gain a year if they make free agency after 5 3/4 years or something to reduce the incentive to leave guys down for 2 weeks at the start of a season. My expectation is to see free agency by a certain age though. The NHL's rule is 7 seasons (40+ games on the roster in a year = a season) or they are 27 or older as of June 30. I suspect the MLB Players Union would take that in a second.

Pearson had one start at the alternate site and it wasn't good. He needs innings and maybe time to get better. I assume he will start opening day next week and then the Jays will see how he looks in a competitive environment.

I like the idea of sending him to AAA as well opposed to just assigning him to the Majors.
But not calling him up over one of Bergen/Milone/Tice/Thornton/Payamps/Castro is a dead giveaway that the Jays don't like what they are seeing now from NP. Similar to why the Padres keep on not calling up Gore despite all his prospect hype.

Pearson is not seen as a bullpen option.
This is what the Rays do. Send the guy to AAA and don't bring him up until he's ready to start.

Thornton and Milone are essentially long relievers now, which is what NP is going to do in the minors it seems for 2-4 weeks it seems. They could move pitchers around to let NP pitch in the majors but they choose not to.
NP was dreadful in is one public outing in March on TV, and the stats from his outing earlier this week were not great as well.
Too many coincidences for me to simply brush aside imo.

Obviously the Jays don't feel NP is ready for the majors right now. Too much rest, too little pitching. Only 1 IP in spring training, plus whatever he has done at the spare site now. So clearly the Jays need him to add a few more to feel like it is worth using him in the majors. I know I wouldn't want to see him vs ML hitters with so little warm up. Once he can do 5 innings and not be battered around like Tanner Roark then he can be called up.

They could stretch Thorton if they wanted to, but it looks like they'll stretch Kay and Zeuch and let Stripling start.

March doesn't mean anything.
Pearson was great in camp last summer but didn't have the same stuff when he started.
He did look good in his 2 innings of playoffs relief.

I don't think stuff has ever been an issue for NP. He has always been a stuff > command/control pitcher while with the Jays, and that definitely showed last year in his brief 2020 debut.
He got destroyed by lefties last year in the majors, and he also got destroyed by lefties in AA in 2019.
Hopefully he can improve these minor red flags, and be a competent SP for us for several years. But I just don't think he is gonna be some 150IP 4FIP 3.5 WAR stud this year like most people seem to think.

I agree. He's 2nd coming of Aaron Sanchez with AJ Burnett upside.

I really like SWR and think Manoah will pass NP in due time. NP is less pitcher more thrower and he can't stay healthy...in his mid 20s!

Seeing prospects rated higher than him like Whitley and Mize getting destroyed is eye opening and makes me appreciate "pitcher first" pitching prospects like SWR and Patino.

100 MPH isn't impressive when every team has a few guys doing it.

I like seeing Martin in AA as well. Surprised to see Manoah in AAA and SWR in AA. SWR seems the more advanced and polished of the two. Either way, it’s exciting to have those three as well as Groshans so close to the Majors. They all become possible options later this season if dominating their competition at those levels.

I see Pearson in AA as a 'let's see where he is at' move.

If he really is back at 100%, he will be called up soon. If he isn't, well, it will take longer.

That is better than ruining him, like some people (elsewhere) seem to think they should do with Manoah.

I still fully believe in Nate Pearson, only injuries will hold him back.

Looking forward to the minor this year, its something I missed last year. Will Robertson is somebody who I think puts up big numbers this year that nobody is talking about.

Manoah has shown his stuff can dominate any hitter.
He needs to face guys who will force him to use all 4 pitches (4-seamer, 2-seamer, slider, change).
SWR has great command, 2 breaking balls and a really good changeup.
For him, it's more a question of not making mistakes, so it makes sense to see what he can do in AA first.
Also, SWR is 20. Manoah is 23.

Manoah has spent most of his college career in the pen and became a starter later.
He could follow the same path with the Jays.
I don't expect to see SWR in the pen.

I'm really eager to see what 24 year old Joe Murray does in AAA.
He's added some velo to his invisiball, but wasn't sharp in spring training, walking 3 in 2 innings.

Pearson is a reminder of the old TINSTAAPP (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect) line. Young pitchers will break your heart. We've seen it many times here in Toronto and even Roy Halladay was one of those kids who broke your heart for a bit. His 2nd ML start was 1 out away from a no-hitter, then he had a solid first full season with a 125 ERA+, but then imploded at 23 after signing a multi-year deal. 67 2/3 IP 80 ER. 48 ERA+ his 10.49 ERA was the worst in history for any pitcher with at least fifty innings pitched. Took him going down to Dunedin and working his way back to the majors with a special dedicated coach (former ML pitcher coach Mel Queen). Blows my mind that teams haven't assigned pitchers special pitching coaches more often after that - the cost would be minimal vs the potential return.

Back to today - the rule is to have as many top arms around and hope a few of them "figure it out" and become aces or solid closers. Between Pearson, SWR, Manoah, Eyk, Kloffenstein we might get 1 or 2 becoming solid ML starters with the rest getting pen time or never being anything more than a footnote. In 1995 the Jays had 2 guys on the top 100 prospects who were pitchers - Jose Silva (ended with an 84 ERA+ over 7 ML seasons) who had tons of hype behind him as I recall and at #100 Chris Carpenter who did pretty good I'd say. The next year it was Marty Janzen (hyped up, never lived up), Carpenter again, and Jose Pett (a hotshot from Brazil who never reached the majors). I suspect if I checked I'd find as more never reached than got to 10 WAR. Pitching is difficult - you can have a 100 mph arm but never find the strikezone, or your fastball could be so straight that hitters pound it, or you never develop a second pitch, or injuries (Merryweather). That is why I generally prefer hitting prospects. More predictable. Only 2 have had super hype from the day they signed - Vlad & Delgado - and I'd say both worked out even though neither was good enough on defense to hold their original positions (3B & CA respectively) and both ended up at 1B. Campusano was super-hype for no logical reason (only produced once in the minors - one time a 902 OPS, never over 800 otherwise). Delgado & Vlad both had OPS's over 900 multiple times before coming up. Some of the best pitchers didn't wow in the minors - Juan Guzman was only under 3 for ERA once in the minors (mostly in the pen) and only once with under 5 BB/9 IP in the minors (4.6) he was over 5 in the majors just once (his final season) and a sub 3 ERA each of his first 2 seasons in the majors plus an ERA title later on. I don't recall any hype about him when he was called up. Stieb despite being a hitter at first, only had 19 games in the minors as a pitcher so not enough time for the hype (imagine it today if a hitter converted to pitching and suddenly took off that fast to the majors, becoming an all-star his first full season).

Pitchers are funny things. I hope Pearson does make it, but at this point I'd give it no better than 50-50 odds as once guys start getting hurt they tend to keep getting hurt (Merryweather) or they start to lose effectiveness in an effort to save their arm.

I believe in the throw everything at the wall and see what sticks philosophy for both prospects and cheap acquisitions.

SF's rotation is very good which is probably why they are in 1st place in the NL. A Wood, A DeSclafani and A Sanchez are all new. They got lucky with those 3. Cueto and Gausman are having very good starts to the season. The 6th and youngest Logan Webb is doing ok.

For us Matz and Ray are successful acquisitions. We got lucky too.

Prospect injuries will hurt. Pearson and Pardinho. I expect longshots to come through. We have a huge quantity to throw at the wall.

From Ben Wagner.....

Nate Pearson had a bumpy sim game yesterday, according to sources. He didn’t finish 3 innings, and had four up/downs over 66 pitches. FB averaged upper-90’s. Pearson is healthy coming off a right groin strain.

Yeah pitching prospects are hard to predict. The Lansing 3 were big news a few years back. Nicolino had 30 mediocre starts with Miami a few years ago and was last seen pitching for the Rakuten Monkeys in China.

Aaron Sanchez of course had some early success until injuries and poor results derailed him. Seems to be having success so far with SF..but who knows.

Syndergaard has had the only career that really took off until TJ side tracked him. Supposed to be back this year in June, so hopefully Thor will be dominating again soon.

Clearly no pitching prospect is a lock. But Pearson does have some tantalizing stuff so I certainly haven’t given up on his career, though not certain how much he can give us this year.

I believe in the throw everything at the wall and see what sticks philosophy for both prospects and cheap acquisitions.

For all the ballyhooed starting pitching depth the Jays claimed to have during the offseason, I find it disconcerting that management has shown no confidence in any of the depth SP options currently available to come and make some spot starts while the team is down to 2 MLB starting pitchers on the roster and is supposedly trying to contend this year.

I find it most baffling that they won't let Trent Thornton stretch out past once-through-the-lineup even though their bullpen and rotation is decimated. I don't think Thornton is likely a major league starter, but I'd rather him put up a 5.00 ERA for five innings once a week than have two bullpen days every turn through the order.

And what of Tanner Roark? He was very quietly put on Family Emergency leave without much talk of his return. Surely with the team down to 2 starters, you would give Roark another shot to return to form in the rotation or you might as well just release him outright.

Agree with most of the posts above, as I mentioned yesterday it is just super telling that the Jays could have promoted Pearson to eventually stretch out given all of the injuries with SP, but they choose not to.
Also it is even more telling that Ben Wagner didn't even disclose the full line stats from the latest NP outing, which further indicates he isn't pitching well right now.

By the time I finish reading an article I forget the contents.

So a big thank you to C's Plus baseball for the following information. The Vancouver C's will play in Hillsborough. This Hillsborough is in the "state" of Oregon. Pacific ocean.

The Hillsboro Hops are the Diamondbacks affiliate.
They'll share Ron Tonkin Field.

What's 4 up/downs? 4 simulated half-innings?

I think Pearson needs to be fastball heavy and try to take guys down with 3 pitches.
Last year he was 50% fastball, 35% slider, 7% curve and 7% change.

The Jays have acquired Paxton Schultz from the Brewers to complete the Derek Fisher trade.

Schultz is a right handed pitcher, drafted in 2019 in the 14th round from a university in Utah.

Gerry do you have a list of any Jays ML releases(If their are actually any?)

I do not have a list of releases other than Mitch McKown and Kyle Huckaby.

The Jays usually try and coordinate their release of minor league rosters. I assume this will happen on Monday. I have reached out to the Jays for the rosters but they won't release them until the teams have announced them so the teams don't get scooped on the news.

Going through Milb player search last night found
released
RHP Anderson Nunez
RHP Maverik Buffo
RHP Andy Ravel
OF Adrian Ramos
OF McGregory Contreras
OF Dom Abbadessa
3B Angel Camacho
1B Scotty Bradley - vol. retired

All our minor league teams start on Tue May 4. There is probably a good chance that they have left Dunedin. If so and Kirk is unavailable to play then someone like R Adams has left town. Just wondering.

Don't know how up to date it is but...

• Bisons Roster
• New Hampshire Roster
• Vancouver Roster
• Dunedin roster

All are only partial but it will be accurate once they assign everyone I'd figure.

With the bigger rosters, I think more guys will stick around then normal, but a few of the AA/AAA 25-28 yr old college guys will probably be let go it seems.

I just used John N's link. The NH roster is posted. I have not yet studied it.

NH roster is huge but incomplete it seems. No A Martin or 2nd catcher.

The first roster is out, for the Bisons.

The starters are likely to be Pearson, Manoah, Zeuch, and Joey Murray.

Nick Allgeyer and Jacob Waguespack could also start.

AJ Cole is listed on the roster so he is likely not opting out.

McGuire and Graterol are the catchers so I dont know whats happening with the taxi squad.

Cullen Large, Logan Warmoth and Kevin Smith are among the home grown prospects who haven't played in the majors. Tellez, Davis and Palacios are on the roster too.

The Fisher Cats roster includes Groshans, Martin and Woods Richardson as previously announced.

Also on the roster are Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno, Samad Taylor and Elvis Luciano.

The rotation after Woods Richardson and Luciano includes Jon Harris, Maximo Castillo and Kyle Johnston. Johnston was traded to the Jays in 2019 from Washington in the Daniel Hudson trade.

Other names on the roster include Chavez Young, Demi Orimoloye and Reggie Pruitt for a speedy outfield.

The Vancouver roster has a lot of players who are back from 2019, as Vancouver is now a high A team.

Adam Kloffenstein and CJ Van Eyk highlight the starters. Justin Maese is back after shoulder problems caused him to miss a lot of time. Sean Wymer is also likely to be a starter.

Hagen Danner is on the roster as a pitcher. We last saw Danner as a catcher.

Among the returnees are Will Robertson, Phil Clarke, Tanner Morris, Cameron Eden and Luis De Los Santos.

The youngest player on the Vancouver roster is Adam Kloffenstein, born in 2000.

Ronny Brito is the only 1999 birthday.

There are several 1998 birthdays.

There are three 2000 birthdays on the New Hampshire roster, more than Vancouver surprisingly.

They are Moreno, Woods Richardson and Luciano.

There are also three 1999 birthdays, Groshans, Martin and Maximo Castillo.

Other names on the roster include Chavez Young, Demi Orimoloye and Reggie Pruitt for a speedy outfield.

Add in Austin Martin when he is not playing shortstop.

John Harris is the token old guy on AA, his fourth time at that level ugh.

I've noticed a few names listed from AA/AAA for possible releases, but I don't wanna speculate till taxi squads and possible injury lists are released.

Joey Murray will not be a starter in AAA. The Jays must view him as a reliever.

The starters will be Pearson, Manoah, Allgeyer, Zeuch and Waguespack.

The Dunedin roster features a lot of relatively unknown players. Some were drafted in 2020 and others promoted from the DSL.

Among the more recognizable names are Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo.

On the pitching side its Yosver Zulueta, Sem Robberse and Naswell Paulino.

Checking back to the Blue Jays top 30 prospects from 2019 as there was no top 30 on Da Box in 2020.

Majors: (4) Kirk, Adams, Kay and Espinal

Known Injured: (2) Hatch and Murphy

AAA: (7) Pearson, Manoah, McGuire, Murray, Zeuch, Palacios and Smith

AA: (6) Groshans, SWR, Moreno, Lopez, Taylor and Castillo

High A: (1) Kloffenstein

Low A: (2) Orelvis and Hiraldo

Likely still in extended: (3) Dasan Brown, Leonardo Jimenez and Eric Pardinho, although Pardinho has had some injury issues

Unknown: (1) Hector Perez

Traded: (4) Kendall Williams, Yenssy Diaz; Josh Winckowski and Griffin Conine

Looking at the 2020 draft, the Jays five picks were:

Austin Martin - AA

CJ Van Eyk - High A

Trent Palmer - unknown, likely injured

Nick Frasso - see Palmer

Zach Britton - A-

Britton was drafted as an outfielder but had caught in high school. He is listed as a catcher on the Dunedin roster.

Gerry, I thought the Jays traded Hector Perez. Cincy?

You are correct hypobole, I had forgotten that.

Make it traded (5).

Kind of shocked that Joey Murray won't be a starter in AAA.

Is the full Dunedin roster available anywhere?

Its on twitter, tweeted from the D Jays account.

Hector Perez is still listed on Reds 40-man roster after being traded from the Jays in January 2021 and appears destined for AAA Louisville after working out at their alternate site.

Any clue what this transaction means?
Seems like most players got activated/transfered to a team.
But I see a player with
"assigned to Blue Jays Organization from XXX".
Is that basically extended Spring training?

I was wondering about that too Tercet. I think your guess makes sense.

Updating my spreadsheet, here are some fringe prospects I looked up on MiLB.com to figure out where they are now:

C/1B Yorman Rodriguez was claimed off waivers by San Diego in December.

RHP Jackson McClelland is one of those "assigned to Blue Jays Organization".

RHP Zach Jackson was claimed off waivers by Oakland in December.

RHP Andrew Sopko was released in November.

Yorman was taken in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 IIRC.