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The always irritating Tampa Bay Rays are coming to Buffalo.

The Rays are having an exciting season. They posted a losing record in April and did so again in June. In those two months they went 25-28 while scoring 237 runs and allowing 236. But in between came the merry month of May, during which they kicked sand in the face of everyone they saw: 22-6, while very nearly doubling the opposition's scoring (160-86.)

Who, one wonders, were they abusing during this wondrous hot streak? Everyone they saw, obviously. But who in particular?

Your Toronto Blue Jays, for starters, whom they beat four times in four tries. They inflicted the same punishment on the LA Angels. They also went 8-0 against the Mets, Orioles, and Phillies. So there's 16 wins with no defeats. It leaves the 12 games that they split, against Kansas City, Houston, Oakland, and the Yankees.

Which is how their season has gone. The Rays have run up their 47-34 record mainly by beating teams in the AL East and the National League. They've gone 21-11 in their own division and 8-4 against the other league. They've gone 18-19 against the AL West and Central. (The Red Sox have been proceeding in a similar fashion. This has worked out much better than what the Yankees have done, which has been to beat up on Central and Western teams, but lose in their own division.)

They come to town having dropped their last three games - since June 15, they've gone 4-10 and their three game cushion atop the AL East has become a three game deficit. They still have a comfortable grip on the second Wild Card spot, but I think they liked where they were two weeks ago much better.

It's a team with a decent enough offense, but what they're really good at is preventing the other team from scoring. Their bullpen is very good, the best in the American League, and as deep as the Marianas Trench. That said, the starting rotation doesn't strike a whole lot of fear in the hearts of men. Tyler Glasnow is on the shelf for at least two more months and southpaw Josh Fleming has joined him on the IL. The Rays talked about going with a four man rotation, but will instead recall Luis Patino from Durham, where he had been working on a streak of 17 scoreless innings. The Rays are still left with 41 year old Rich Hill as their ace starter. Hill has been an effective starting pitcher in the majors for most of this century - there can't be too many active players who pitched to Barry Bonds - but the last time Hill pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title was - wait for it - back in 2007. He was a young Cub then, and that was the only time in his 17 year career that he's pitched enough innings to qualify. So one wonders how much they expect from him in the second half.

The Blue Jays and their followers have moaned quite a bit about the injuries that have ravaged the pitching staff. The Rays can sing that song as well. They have no less than 12 pitchers on the IL themselves, most of whom are the 60 day list. Besides Glasnow, the most significant loss is closer Nick Anderson, who isn't expected to return until sometime in August. Bullpen depth pieces Chaz Roe and Cody Reed are gone for the season, but Ryan Thompson should be back in a week or so. The lineup has been healthy for the most part - Ji-Man Choi missed the first six weeks recovering from knee surgery, and another 10 day with a groin strain, but he's in the lineup now.

We shall get our first look at the Rays' 20 year old wunderkind, switch-hitting shortstop Wander Franco. He socked a double and a homer in his first game, but has been held to 4 singles in the seven games since. Baseball is hard. I'm sure he'll figure it all out, but it would be fine if that didn't happen until sometime next week.

And there be matchups....

Fri July 2 - Patino (1-1, 3.60) vs† Manoah (1-0, 3.34)
Sat July 3 - McClanahan (3-2, 4.09) vs† Stripling (3-4, 4.27)
Sun July 4 - Yarbrough (4-3, 4.48) vs† Ray (6-3, 3.43)

Rays at Jays, July 2-4 | 231 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#401410) #
In 7 games versus Tampa Bay this season:

Offensively, the Blue Jays have 13 homers, but only 6 doubles. The catchers are 1 for 24 with 2 walks. Bo Bichette has 2 singles and 2 walks over 33 plate appearances.

Defensively, in 67 innings, just 52 hits allowed, but 32 walks issued. The Rays have scored 10 unearned runs. Robbie Ray has 16 strikeouts and no walks over 13 innings.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#401411) #
What I find interesting about the Rays pitchers on the 60IL is that they've replaced them with very good pitchers so much so that pitching has remained their strength. I suppose that they'll try to trade some extra pitchers this month--while they still can--so that they don't lose any for nothing.

So what about Vidal Brujan? Are they going to keep in AAA all year?
He mostly play 2B/CF/LF and he switch hit.
Brandon Lowe is fine at 2B. Kiermaier is near untradable in CF.
Do they move Meadows before he gets expensive?

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#401413) #
If he were a Blue Jays fan, how many televisions would Elvis Presley shoot with a gun so far this year?
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#401415) #
The Rays didn't play yesterday, so they'll have a fully rested bullpen.
Their lineups will feature lots of lefties, probably as many as 4 against Ray and at least 6 against Stripling and Manoah.
Such is life.

Parker - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#401416) #
"Ah, this show ain't no good!" *KABLAM*
92-93 - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#401417) #
Yarbrough owns the Jays, so it's important to win the first two games of this series. Splitting these 6 vs. TB before the ASG would help stay in the race.

MLB Network showed Richard Rodriguez's disaster of an inning live last night, and mentioned it was his 5th time in his last 11 appearances that he had given up a run. The grass is always greener.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#401422) #
Rodriguez is a ground ball pitcher who doesn't get a huge number of strikeouts.
Over those 11 appearances, he struck out 11 and only walked 3. He also gave up 15 hits, but he still hasn't allowed a home run. Early in the year, he was getting a fair amount of infield pop ups.
He blew 2 out of 5 saves and he ERA went from 0.54 to 2.59.

I'd prefer Hudson, but he won't be available.

hypobole - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#401426) #
Remember Chuck mentioning Grandal's bizarre season a while back. From Jayson Stark:

Letís take a look at all AL hitters who got at least 200 plate appearances through the end of June.

Most hits Ė Cedric Mullins, 99
Fewest hits Ė Yasmani Grandal, 32

On-base pct. of the guy with the most hits Ė .391
On-base pct. of the guy with the fewest hits Ė .391

scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#401427) #
Neither the Dodgers nor MLB is suspending Trevor Bauer so far.
Kinda weird.
No charges have been filed against him even though all the evidence is on the internet.
Yeah, kinda weird.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#401434) #
Bauer has been put on 7 days administrative leave by MLB until they see what charges he will face. I'm glad the Jays didn't sign him.
dalimon5 - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#401436) #
I donít think anything will happen until it is proven he is guilty. Is the evidence showing proof that he was the perpetrator or is it evidence of the crime?

Best case is to keep him on leave until he admits, claimant drops or he is arrested.

I really hope this is not true because itís just so bad. Has there ever been a high profile, highest paid player, conservative type of celebrity/athlete who has done something like this before? Besides TrumpÖ
Gerry - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#401437) #
Chatwood has been placed on the IL.

Murphy has been optioned.

Castro and Allgeyer recalled.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#401438) #
It's not a whodunnit.
It's all about the definition of consent and that probably depends on the case history in California.

Regardless of the legal outcome, I would think it falls within the definition of domestic violence as defined by MLB, but I haven't looked into that either.

A player on administrative leave collects his full salary and the status can be renewed every 7 days.

Kasi - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#401439) #
They flipped Springer and Teoscar in the lineup. Curious move. Is this a precursor to flipping Springer and Vlad or Springer and one of the top 2?
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#401440) #
Murphy and Chatwood would not have been available tonight anyway.
This let Chatwood "rehab" in AAA instead of trying to find it in games.
This also let them recall Castro who could be useful tonight.

Allgeyer could very well pitch in this series.
I don't think there's a team with more left bats than Tampa and they'll play them in 6 of the next 9 games.
I just hope they don't interview him again in the pre-game show.

Kasi - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#401441) #
Also interesting tweet on our favoritely heard target Richard Rodriguez.

Essentially his spin on his 2 strongest pitches has dropped 3-4 hundred and he is getting lit up a lot lately. I feel the same thing has happened with chatwood.
Kasi - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#401442) #
I was able to figure out how to track Chatwood's spin rates for this season on baseball savant. Since early June when this stuff started getting rules changes it looks like his cutter, sinker and 4 seam spin is down about 300 with curveball and change down even more. This looks like our first pitching casualty of the pitching substance changes.
Gerry - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#401443) #

Here is a legal summary of the Bauer situation.

Bottom line, you cannot consent to your own death or grievous bodily harm to yourself. Also you cannot consent to acts when you are unconscious.

92-93 - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#401444) #
Curious indeed, Kasi. Itís not like Teoscar has been struggling lately. Charlie often has one guy seemingly out of proper order in the batting lineup, but this could be a case of managing personalities.
scottt - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#401445) #
So just 2 right bats for Tampa tonight.
92-93 - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#401446) #
Montoyo is a genius.

You don't see many infield popups from Vladdy.
Gerry - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#401447) #
Dolis and Axford just pitched the last two innings for Buffalo.

If Dolis pitches again on Sunday he could be recalled next week.
hypobole - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#401448) #
Have the past few games seen seen pitchers attacking Vladdy down and away more or is he just swinging at those more?
Polite Nate - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#401451) #
What a statement start from Manoah. Rays stacking the lefties like that and he still mowed through them.
Alex Obal - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#401452) #
Manoah is just blowing these guys away tonight, eh.

Have the past few games seen seen pitchers attacking Vladdy down and away more or is he just swinging at those more?

The righties have been trying to do that to Vlad all season. Easier said than done. The lefties are more varied - maybe it feels easier to go inside on him with cutters, I don't know.

They need to try throwing him more right-on-right changeups, I think. Make things complicated for him. Life is easier when you know the pitcher's intentions are always either "fastball away" or "55-foot slider." There's a lot less certainty on what pitch and location he's going to see against LH pitchers and I think that's part of why he's been merely very good against them so far.
hypobole - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#401453) #
Some days you just have to believe our non-Romano relievers can hold a lead. I have to believe today is that day.
Magpie - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#401454) #
I have to believe today is that day.

A man's faith, sorely tested and tried, but ultimately rewarded.
John Northey - Friday, July 02 2021 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#401455) #
Fun game - 7 straight K's by Manoah, a new Jays record.
10 K's by Manoah, 1 short of the Jays rookie record.
43 K's in his first 7 ML starts, a new Jays record.

Maybe he should get suspended more often :) 7 shutout innings, 5 1/3 No-Hit innings. What more could you ask?

Allgeyer got his first ML inning in, which is great to see. I hate when guys get called up but never play. Glad Davis, Espinal, and Castro all got to play as well. Vlad 2 for 4 with a walk and a home run, guess his 'slump' is over. Geez, are standards for him too high or what? 4 games without a home run and we all start to worry. Just a shame the starter for Tampa wasn't booted from the game quicker as they only used 2 real relievers (one threw just 10 pitches) and their backup CF on the mound. Ah well.

Lets go Jays - lets see another 10 runs tomorrow!
scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#401456) #
Cora is the same. Smart managers just give up and save the pen for another day.
Allgeyer could have done 2 innings or even 3. I don't know if we really needed 104 pitches from Manoah.
Castro is not willing to go fastball heavy on guys who hit sliders.

McGuire is doing a really nice job on both side of the ball.

scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#401457) #
The Yankees acquired Tim Locastro to replace Clint Frazier on the IL with vertigo.
Does anybody here thinks Judge will last the whole season?

92-93 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#401467) #
It was a pleasure watching the Rays broadcast last night. They were well informed about the Jays. They were particularly impressed by Manoah's ability to miss bats, comparing him to Glasnow with all those strikeouts swinging. They also thought that the velocity drop from his fastball to his slider was unusually large and that it played a big part in his effectiveness. It's always interesting to hear what opposing broadcasts think of the Jays and their playoff chances, especially when you're on Twitter or Da Box and it seems people would rather the Jays play poorly so they can sell off their assets instead of, god forbid, having to trade prospects to get better.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#401468) #
Listening to WFAN, the Yankees fans are convinced that it's 1965 all over again.

I would be surprised, though not shocked, if Cashman is finally relieved of his duties. †Boone is doomed. †Judge should be traded and perhaps re-signed, like Chapman, but I am skeptical that will happen. A few years ago, I was astounded by how many terrific players they had.

hypobole - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#401469) #
Your cheap shots are getting rather tiresome. If you have any knowledge about baseball, you should know teams sometimes sell and some here acknowledge that fact. But no one here I'm aware of is calling for selling at this point and no one here I'm aware of wants this team to fail.

You do seem to have have a disdain for prospects that others here, as well as pretty well every major league team doesn't. That's your opinion and you're entitled to it. But why do you feel the need to belittle those who don't share your opinion?

85bluejay - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#401470) #
If the Reda become sellers at the deadline and last offseason dumping slaries was a priority of ownership, I wonder if the Jays feel they can fix Eugenio Suarez's swing as I'm sure the reds would love to get out from under that contract and how much would taking that contract lower the price for Luis Castillo.
Super Bluto - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#401472) #
"It was a pleasure watching the Rays broadcast last night. They were well informed about the Jays."

Was listening to the Rays radio feed and found the same. Don't know their names, but they are among the best I've heard so far this year. The worst? Probably Cleveland.
SK in NJ - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#401473) #
What a start by Manoah last night. Big series against a team directly ahead of them, and he came up huge. If only Pearson were healthy, that would be one enticing looking combo along side Ryu/Ray.

The Jays are going to have to slug their way to wins as long as the bullpen is as injured/ineffective as they are. They will have to do that at a successful clip over the next 3 weeks until reinforcements come (in the way of returning RPs from injury and trades). Currently 4 games back of both WC spots. Springer coming back from injury, and hopefully Kirk as well, will go a long way.
Cracka - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#401474) #
Jansen up, Adams down... and that leaves Kirk in IL purgatory as Montoyo has said there is no way that they'll carry 3 catchers (especially on a 3-man bench). I expect Kirk will be optioned to AAA and Jansen will be given a month or so to get it going at the plate, getting the starts against LHP and catching Ryu. It seems almost certain that one of the catchers will be traded before the deadline.
hypobole - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#401476) #
Not surprised about Jansen. At no position, other than pitcher, does hitting ability matter less than catcher. Obviously they have to hit better than that putrid stretch Reese went through last year. But catcher defence and the ability to make pitchers effective is the most important factor. Pretty sure the team thinks Jansen is much superior to Kirk in that regard.
92-93 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#401477) #
If the team isn't confident in Kirk's defensive ability he should be traded for pitching while he still has the prospect shine. With Springer, Hernandez, Biggio, Grichuk, and Gurriel under control through (at least) '23 there's little room for a true DH on the roster unless the dude can absolutely rake.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#401479) #
Kirk can rake. And has potential behind the plate.
Gerry - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#401481) #
The Jays will have to trade a catcher in the next few weeks. Which one will depend on the offers of course. Kirk would be the better one to have stick around short term but can he survive long term behind the plate with that body?

I am not sure which of Jansen or Kirk I would prefer to trade.
92-93 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#401482) #
It feels like just yesterday when Jansen was the one who could rake with potential behind the plate. It would be nice to see some of that guy again.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#401484) #
I'm a Jansen fan but let's be real- outside of that first callup he simply hasn't hit enough to be anything more than a bench player. He's 26 with a 74wrc+. 68wrc+ in the last 3yrs.

Kirk is 22yrs old with stud production at every level including as a 21yr old in MLB.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#401485) #
I think Kirk profiles well as the backup catcher. That means he can catch 1-3 times a week and then DH some and PH some. Iím less sold on his catching abilities compared to others. Of the catchers we have it would seem heís the worst defensively although ofc I have no proof. Catching metrics more than anything else is where teams have private info that isnít publicly available. This is why a Jansen might be okay even if he canít hit a lick if he gives enough as a receiver.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#401486) #

Rk (19-19): .354babip, 160wrc+
A (20-20): .299babip, 173wrc+
A+ (20-20): .317babip, 153wrc+
AAA (22-22): .333babip, 160wrc+
MLB (21-22): .280babip, 135wrc+

It's a special bat. Only vladdy has had a more impressive record at these ages of any jays prospect in recent memory.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#401487) #
If it's my team, I still have Jansen penciled in as the starting catcher this year and next, and quietly start preparing Moreno for the responsibilities of the role long-term. This is coming from someone who would have been perfectly fine with Luke Maile starting 120 games, though. 

Mike Zunino has had multiple three-year stretches of looking like a total non-hitter in the majors. He's keeping this overrated Rays team in the race now.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#401489) #
Gabriel Moreno offers the most upside of the catchers so losing him would hurt the most but I'm willing to trade any of the catchers as part of the package for a TOR starter who's controlled beyond this year.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#401491) #
I expect that the Jays are probably dangling Kevin Smith as the headliner in a package - both the Reds and Rockies (with Story expected to depart) are looking for a longterm shortstop.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#401492) #
Doesnít matter if he has a special bat if he gives it all away on the catching/receiving side. Now who knows how bad Kirk is there but he does seem to have the worst arm there and heís a pretty noisy receiver.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#401493) #
Pretty sure the team thinks Jansen is much superior to Kirk in that regard.

I think Ryu has really missed Jansen - he seems to be the only catcher on the team who's able to think along with him. Ryu calls his own game, but he doesn't approach hitters like other pitchers do. With McGuire and Adams it seems like he has to stand around waiting for them to hit on the pitch he wants to throw. He has trouble getting in rhythm.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#401494) #
What to do behind the dish? I am certainly drinking the Kirk Kool-Aid, but he has played only 26 games in the Big Leagues. The body type does not worry me quite as much. (I cannot imagine a better role model than Vladdy with his weight loss and great leap forward.) Kirk's offensive numbers are glittering, but we need a full season of evidence.

I like Danny Jansen, but I doubt he will win back his position as the regular starter. McGuire can keep the job until he stops hitting. Adams needs more seasoning, but can be useful as a depth player. Moreno will arrive next year.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#401496) #
Well thatís why I think Kirk is suited for the backup C and PH role. You might now want him as the full time C now but you want him to learn and develop. Maybe he pulls a Vlad and shows up 20 lbs lighter next season and settles in better as C. I just donít see any indication yet that his receiving skills are good enough to be a full time starter. I do like his bat a lot but I honk he could give more runs back on the defensive side.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#401499) #
Kirk should be DH.

With some games at C.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#401500) #
I love Gurriel The Personality and Gurriel The Arm, and I like Gurriel The Bat, but Gurriel The Glove makes me cry.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#401501) #
He could but that has issues. One if heís DH you have no backup catcher at the bench. If you want to PH for the starter you now lose your DH spot.

Secondly there is no indication that any player is going to get the DH spot. I can at most see Kirk getting 2 DH starts a week and that is likely more than they would give him. Vlad, Springer, Bo and Teoscar are all going to be getting DH spots regularly. Kirk is just low on the priority list there.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#401503) #
I'd like to see Kirk on the short side of a ~60-40 Defense-Offense platoon, and getting a decent amount of ABs from the DH slot as well.

I'd also like to see Biggio acting as a DH In Name Only with the rest of the ABs, giving half-days off (and some full ones) to everyone else.
pooks137 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#401504) #
I still think Reese McGuire is the catcher on the 40-man that the team should be trying to move.

In order to believe in Reese McGuire as a long-term starter, you have to believe that he made some sort of Gio Urshela-style mechanics change last month in June that permanently increased his true talent level offensive potential way beyond anything he's ever put up over greater than 2000 mediocre minor league PAs.

On June 16th, after his 22nd game of the year, McGuire was batting 204/271/296 for an OPS of .567 with 1 HR and 4 walks to 12 Ks over his 1st 60 PAs.

Since then, he's been on the hot streak of all hot streaks for 3 weeks, but it's mostly BABIP fueled with singles.

His career minor league line over 2239 PAs is .261/325/347, OPS 672 and 239/314/350, OPS .665 over 646 PAs in AAA

There's no doubt McGuire has earned starts and a roster spot in present day for the time being.

But he's out of options and can declare free agency the next time you DFA him. McGuire is the catcher on the 40-man with the least offensive track record and the least flexibility.

I'd really hate for the Jays to foolishly waste one of their four other assets at catcher because they suddenly bought into McGuire's less than one month long new normal.
John Northey - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#401505) #
The problem is Kirk has a lot of value in trade (potentially), Jansen little, McGuire less. Other teams know how bad McGurie was last year and while he might have learned something new I doubt anyone will give up something of significant value for him.

That is why I think Kirk is the most likely to be traded - lots of value right away for a team doing poorly. A bad team can deal with him learning to catch better in the majors. Most value to an AL team, but still worth it for an NL one.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#401507) #
I still think Reese McGuire is the catcher on the 40-man that the team should be trying to move.

I also think it's unlikely that McGuire has truly found major league pitching easier than minor league pitching, his career stats notwithstanding. But here's the thing - if everyone regards him the same way you do, all you're going to get for him is a bag of used baseballs. If he's not fooling you or me, he's probably not fooling the actual GMs.

So while the guy is playing well, I expect that the way the organization will try to take advantage is by extending Kirk's stay in AAA. That way, he also gets to catch a lot, which everyone seems to think would be a good thing. Barring injury, I think Montoyo is perfectly happy with using the DH spot to rotate through his four outfielders and the other two guys (Guerrero and Bichette) who have started every game.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#401509) #
The extra-inning baserunners have produced shorter games. The manager can be a bit more cavalier in using the backup catcher as a pinch hitter.

A pipe dream or potential rule change? The DH can enter the field as a defensive substitute and keep his spot in the batting order. The player removed from the game can be replaced with the new DH. However, this can be done only once during the game.

A double-switch of sorts? It would make backup catchers all the more eligible for DH. (I am sure such a rule would be exploited somehow.)

And perhaps it follows the logic of the existing rule where a pitcher may take up another defensive position and later return to pitching, but just once allowed per player.
pooks137 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#401510) #
I guess my take is also based in the opinion that I don't want the Jays to sell assets to try to make a run this year.

I think the Jays should be trying to make low-cost trades like the Cimber/Dickerson swap as opposed to selling assets for a 2015-style push when this team isn't realistically playing for a division title, they are trying to climb back into the wild card race for a one-game playoff.

I'm not too concerned with the return for McGuire being low, although I also wouldn't trade him just to clear room.

But if the team can't make it through another offseason carrying 5 catchers, then they should trade McGuire this month for whatever they can get.
hypobole - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#401511) #
It's July 3. Lot's can change in the next 27 days. And this team looks like it has a decent chance to go on a serious roll.
Nigel - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#401512) #
Gurriel is a terrible base runner too. Espinal looks like the opposite type of player - where the end product is greater than the sum of its parts.
hypobole - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#401513) #
Don't disagree with Montoyo much, but he really should be giving Espinal more run at 3rd IMO.
Gerry - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#401514) #
Usually what happens is that when a marginal player historically, McGuire, is given the starting job, that's when his hot streak ends.

We will see.

I would be OK if the Jays traded McGuire but I dont think you will get a lot back for him unless he keeps this up to the end of the season.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#401515) #
I don't think McGuire's been given the starting job - the two guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart got hurt. The best he's done for himself is reclaim the number 2 job for a while. Jansen's back, and I fully expect him to start at least two-thirds of the time. For one thing, the organization loves him, manager and GM.
Cynicalguy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#401516) #
Gotta to love our top 5 in the lineup...3 all stars and the other two are Springer and Bichette.

The only time the Jays should trade Kirk is when Moreno is up with the big club and proves he can be a legit 1 number catcher. The Jays should not be assuming Moreno is going to be a can't miss prospect, there's plenty of examples of injuries derailing careers. Ideally you have both Kirk and Moreno with the team sometime next year, and if they both put up good numbers, then trade one.

I don't see the big concern with Kirk's catching in the short term...he seems decent from the games he's played and the organization thinks he can stick at catcher and he's still young and can get better. And how are we certain this is his peak value...what if he puts up 800 OPs the 2nd half of this year and first half of next year and plays passable defense? His value will skyrocket.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#401517) #

Mayza against Kiermaier to close out the 7th was overkill. It's the Rays. Conserve your lefties. Not knocking Montoyo, I'm sure these decisions are coming from upstairs.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#401518) #
I'm sure these decisions are coming from upstairs.

Pitching changes? I'm sure they aren't.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#401519) #
Oh, they're leaving him in. Fine. Fair enough. Nowhere near as bad as Fairbanks pitching with a five-run deficit...
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#401520) #
Pitching changes? I'm sure they aren't.

I'm sure nobody is directly pulling the manager's strings during the game, but he's implementing the strategy handed down from the front office, no? I'm sure Montoyo has some input in that strategy, but if he didn't follow the plan they would find somebody else.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#401521) #
I'm pretty sure the pitching changes though are a collaboration between Montoyo and Walker. (Buschmann too). I also wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of statistical analysis done on it before game with the FO. Analysis of the team you're playing, which relievers work better against them, etc.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#401522) #
he's implementing the strategy handed down from the front office, no?

All managers do that, but the front office doesn't hand down game strategy. They choose someone whose ideas about running a game mesh with their own - but running the actual games is the manager's job. That's why the manager's there. The GM is in no position to carry out that kind of micro-managing. And if you don't let the manager run the games - well, you don't even have a manager, not one that the players are going to take seriously. And sure, if you don't like how he does it, you find someone else.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#401523) #
Alek Manoah's jersey number is too low and Adam Cimber's is too high.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#401524) #
Geez glad Romano got that stinker out of the way there. It looks like he was getting squeezed a bit but throw strikes please.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#401525) #
Re: Kirk at DH

Bottom line is that it would be very dumb not to get Kirk's bat into the lineup. He is a very good hitter.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#401526) #
Nowhere near as bad as Fairbanks pitching with a five-run deficit...

How is that bad? He's been about their seventh-best reliever this year, and when you're down by five seems the natural time to send him out there.
mathesond - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#401527) #
Huh. Most years, if you told me the Jays outscored Tampa 17-4 over 2 games, I would have said "Well, at least they won one."
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#401528) #
No one disagrees with him not being a good hitter. The thing is there is uncertainty on position here and we saw that that just a slip in how good you hit pretty much killed Tellez. Point seemingly being missed here is that Kirk is likely not to be the starting catcher and certainly not to be a full or even half time DH. So until his catching skills improve he likely will be frustrating people who would prefer to see his bat instead of Jansen. This isn't fantasy baseball, you need a guy who will bring the best out of the pitching staff and there are questions if Kirk is that guy yet.
Nigel - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#401529) #
Give the way TB has owned them, I would have asked ďyeah, but did they win one?Ē ;)
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#401530) #
A series win for the Rays. Nothing beats that.

Huh. Most years, if you told me the Jays outscored Tampa 17-4 over 2 games, I would have said "Well, at least they won one."

Especially the way this year has gone, channelling the first few months of 2015: win big, lose little.

Nigel - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#401531) #
I didnít think Kirk was a poor defensive C (from my subjective viewing of his April games) but the beginning of the year was a small sample size. I do think the Jansen is an elite defensive C and will keep his job if he can hit even a little.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#401532) #
How is that bad? He's been about their seventh-best reliever this year, and when you're down by five seems the natural time to send him out there.

It looks like a SSS overreaction on the surface. Two weeks ago one might have said he was their best reliever. Four of his last five outings entering today were bad. I guess they wanted to let him find his bearings again. Fair enough. Personally, I'm glad they ran Wisler in the higher leverage spot.

This is fun.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#401533) #
Kirk's bat should be in the lineup, period.


Bo (19): .443babip, 201wrc+
Kirk (20): .299babip, 173wrc+


Bo (19): .360babip, 145wrc+
Kirk (20): .317babip, 153wrc+


Bo (20): .331babip, 120wrc+
Kirk ---


Bo (21): .317babip, 103wrc+
Kirk (22): .333babip, 165wrc+


Bo (21-23): .351babip, 128wrc+
Kirk (21-22): .280babip, 135wrc+
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#401534) #
The thing is we don't know Nigel. Per Kevin Goldstein the biggest difference between public and team evaluation of players is on catching. The publicly available metrics just don't measure up yet. I don't think that Kirk is incapable of getting to that level, I just think right now that Jansen and McGuire have a head start. So I expect at some point one of Jansen or McGuire (likely McGuire) are gone and Kirk is up here as the backup catcher.

I still don't see any sign the Jays are willing to make anyone the fulltime DH though. They seem to appreciate giving Vlad, Springer, Bo and Teoscar days off the field rather than having them sit and use the DH more for a full time spot ala Nelson Cruz.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#401535) #
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, and Teoscar HernŠndez are starters in the All Star Game.

The reserves will be announced tomorrow night. Bo Bichette should be there too. And maybe one pitcher?

Kevin Cash is the manager for the American League. He ought to select Charlie Montoyo as a coach.
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#401536) #
I'll say this - Montoyo is managing as if he believes a five run lead is safe only if he puts his best relievers into the game. To do otherwise is simply asking for Trouble. Which may be understandable, given how the year has gone.

He doesn't know Cimber yet - managers always need to see things with their own two eyes - but I'm sure that after one look at that delivery he concluded that he'll need to be protected from LH batters.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#401537) #
The problem with Kirk as the full DH is he can't be the backup catcher than. Perhaps Magpie or some other baseball savant knows but I don't recall how often teams with only 2 catchers have run out one of them as a semi regular DH. There is no way the Jays are going to keep 3 catchers here.

Just saying that despite yes that bat being elite he's going to have problems being an every day player until the team moves him to be the starting catcher since he lacks any other position.
PeterG - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#401538) #
Kirk belongs in AAA period. He can improve his catching skills and a full time DH is not wanted or needed with the big club. Maybe next year, he has a spot if he is not traded.
jerjapan - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#401539) #
Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but does Robbie Ray actually have super tight pants?
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#401540) #
The problem with Kirk as the full DH is he can't be the backup catcher than.

Montoyo did use Kirk as the DH a couple of times, but it's a bit of roster construction that managers just can't abide. They probably worry about it too much - really, how often does your starting catcher get hurt and have to come out of the game anyway, meaning you lose your DH? Hardly ever (okay, it's already happened to the Jays twice this year, but that's probably their quota for the season.) But worry about it they will.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#401542) #
Yeah I agree that you can lose the DH a couple times and its fine if you improve the lineup enough. Heck the Angels have willingly done it this year with Ohtani. That being said on Kirk hitting DH earlier in the year that was when Springer was hurt. I expect for a while here that him and Vlad are going to get the vast majority of DH slots, leaving little time for a fulltime DH.
Nigel - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#401543) #
Oh I agree Kasi. C defence is a black box. The only thing I will say is that reputation and perception do play a role in player evaluation. Kirk acquired a reputation as a bad C when he started and he looks like, well, how he looks. Heís got a few things to overcome.
92-93 - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#401544) #
Hard to blame them too when Guerrero, Bichette, Semien, and Grichuk have appeared in every game until today when Al had a well-deserved day off.

Kudos to Semien for turning down the DH role and stepping up to play SS when Bo needs a blow. It's great having a motivated guy playing at an elite level for his next contract.

Big series win. Three games back of TB, but only 2 games in the loss column. Stripling brings his ERA down to 4.06, pretty good for a back-end guy.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#401545) #
I think Semien wants to go back to being a SS so I expect he will continue to jump at every opportunity to play it to show that he has the skills. Getting out there at SS regularly will keep his defense there fresher. I was surprised to see the Semien has played in yeah every game and every one of those has been in the field. His bat is certainly good enough to deserve an occasional DH spot. (plus then Biggio could shift over to 2b then)
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#401546) #
Right now, they're carrying five outfielders and two catchers. It wouldn't be too hard to go four and three, I suppose. The roster is sort of your starting nine, Espinal, and two other guys, pick your poison. I still suspect they'd rather have Kirk catch five times a week for Buffalo than twice a week in the majors. I saw his AAA numbers up above and I thought- it's ten freaking plate appearances. We're not making something out of that, surely.
Chuck - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#401547) #
[Re Cimber] I'm sure that after one look at that delivery he concluded that he'll need to be protected from LH batters.

Absolutely. Such is life as a RH sidewinder/submariner. L/R career OPS splits.

Cimber 861/652 (+209)

Bradford 856/585 (+301)
Tekulve 758/557 (+201)
J Nelson 789/596 (+193)
Neshek 740/554 (+186)
Ziegler 756/585 (+171)
O'Day 708/550 (+158)
Eckersley 750/596 (+154) (includes 75% of IP that were as a SP)
Eichhorn 750/597 (+153)
Cishek 692/569 (+123)
Quisenberry 717/598 (+119)
J Smith 703/603 (+100)

uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#401548) #
Kirk was skipped to MLB at 21 with zero time in AA or AAA for a reason, and it has been very successful.

Sure would be strange for them to now decide to send him back down for more development, after he's done nothing but mash up here.
Chuck - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#401549) #
For fear that I have sullied the good name of Chad Bradford, his split differential is only +271, not the gaudy +301 that I reported. Apologies to Chad and the entire Bradford family.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#401550) #
"I expect for a while here that him [springer] and Vlad are going to get the vast majority of DH slots, "

Why? Are they old? Bad defensively?
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#401551) #
Because the question is not how good he hits, but how well he plays his position. With his height and body type there is one position available to him on the field, C. If they feel like he needs to develop there then yeah they want to get him full time spots there. It's not like the Blue Jays need another bat right now. Sure it doesn't hurt but their main goal right now is maximizing the effectiveness of their pitching staff.

If they really do want to just keep him in they could like Magpie say keep 3 catchers up.
John Northey - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#401552) #
So, how have the Jays done with Kirk behind the plate? All figures are lifetime (2020/21) due to the small sample size.

17 starts as a catcher, team 8 W, 9 losses, 5.58 runs allowed per game, but that is biased by the 20 runs vs NYY last september and a 12 run vs NYY last September (his 2nd and 3rd games in the majors - Walker/Yamaguchi for the 20 run, Roark/Waguespack game 2). Remove those 2 and it is 4.2 runs per game when he starts (3 times left before the end but don't feel like pulling apart those numbers). Those games were ugly and the Jays just left guys in to be pounded as the pen was dead and the team looked dead. Amazing the Jays went 6-6 after those 2 losses to get to the playoffs.

Many will focus on the 12-1 SB-CS rate, the 1 passed ball, 8 wild pitches and 0 pick offs. I am old enough to remember Mike Piazza and how people went nuts over his noodle arm and how they all loved I-Rod who'd throw out 50% some years. However, from day one, Piazza's staffs were among the top 5 in MLB while I-Rod's were often dead last or near the bottom. There is more to baseball than a good throwing arm.

Basically doing this quick look I'm not seeing major issues with Kirk behind the plate - 2 horrid games very early on when the team gave up, but otherwise solid results.

Jansen for comparison in 2020/21...
4.88 runs allowed per game - remove worst 2 (an 18 and a 14 run game) and it goes to 4.56. Remove all over 10 runs (figuring those were just 'one of those days') and you get 4.06 (removes 7 games out of 73 starts). 39-34 overall in those games, 39-27 removing the 7 10 run games.

24-17 record in starts, 3.66 runs per game, just once over 10 runs (14 vs Tampa, 14-8 loss), remove it and down to 3.4 runs per game allowed. Wow. That record includes 2020 when he couldn't hit out of a wet paper bag. There is a reason this guy had a great rep for defense.

Now, after going through all of that my view is McGuire should be #1, Kirk #2/DH and let Jansen go (Jansen had 64 Ryu innings this year, 29 2/3 total for Adams and McGuire combined - 62 innings Jansen, 5 for McGuire in 2020) Yeah, Jansen is nice as Ryu's personal catcher but if with all those innings with our ace he still sees as many runs allowed as Kirk pretty much while McGuire gets anyone else (which in 2020 was painful) then I have trouble seeing Jansen's value to the team beyond that personal catcher role. Kirk at least is a good PH/DH when not catching.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#401553) #
Springer it should be obvious why he's getting a lot of DH spots. Vlad to keep him more fresh since his bat is the best on the team.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#401554) #
What does "not need another bat" mean? How is that a reason for not fielding your best players? You're scared of being too good?

What are we even saying? That it's so important go get gurriel/grichhk/Espinal in the lineup that we just don't have room for Kirk?
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#401555) #
I think the organization needs to find out if Kirk can be a catcher. He's not Carlos Delgado, they can't move him to first base. He's a catcher or he's a DH. Finding out which is crucial to his future in the game, and his future with the team.

And Montoyo appears very comfortable using the DH spot as a way to give one of his everyday players - Guerrero, Bichette, the four outfielders - a half day off. He's got six players to rotate through the spot. He's not feeling the need for upgrades all that strongly.

He clearly doesn't like playing Guerrero in the field more than five days in a row (he's said it's because he spends so much time running the bases, which is a new one for me.) He doesn't actually have another first baseman on the roster anymore, but I suppose he'll make do with Gurriel or Biggio.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#401556) #
He can't play the positions they play so that comparison doesn't make sense. He can't play LF or 3B or 1B. He can play 2 positions on this team. DH and C. I'm not against playing him a couple times a week at DH but I've already laid out why you should expect Springer and Vlad to get 3-4 of those spots every week going forward. C is where he should play and the point there is if he gives as much runs back on defense as he gives on offense that is not a trade the Jays are going to take.
scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#401557) #
I like having a full McGuire/Jansen platoon. I've always hated McGuire starting against a lefty.
They can let these 2 run like that until the All-Star break and see from there.
There's no question that Jansen is currently better than Adams.

Jansen has 1.9 bWAR over 223 games.
McGuire has 1.5 bWAR over 99 games.

However, I'm really excited about Moreno.
Imagine this team with a plus bat at catcher!

They already strengthened the bench with Dickerson.
They don't need to acquire another position player.
The rotation is set. Ryu, Ray and Matz will start if healthy.
Stripling has been solid for over a month.
Manoah has been impressive.
They can't acquire a starter just to send Manoah to AAA.
So it's all just the bullpen and relievers can be acquired cheaply.

Thorton could be sent down to AAA.
Chatwood, Milone,  Edwards Jr could be dropped.

Do they need 1 or 2 guys?

Not sure if the Mariners will sell, but they have lots of good relievers.
Texas has Ian Kennedy.
Richard Rodriguez has lost some shine.
Marlins have Yimi Garcia.
Angels have Raisel Iglesias, Steve Cishek
Orioles have Paul Fry, Tanner Scott
Rockies have Mychal Givens

John Northey - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#401559) #
Yeah, after digging in a tiny bit I like McGuire/Jansen behind the plate for 2021, Kirk the #3 guys who is in AAA playing everyday (CA or DH) with Adams also playing there.  Moreno will be given every shot to win a job in 2022, both in spring and if he doesn't in AAA to start 2022.  I expect one of Jansen/McGuire/Kirk to be traded.  My gut says Kirk as his value right now is probably the highest it'll be unless he lives up to crazy expectations with the bat.  We'll see what comes by July 31st.  I have no trouble with Jansen/McGuire until then for sure.

3B is an interesting one - do you platoon Biggio/Espinal or do a mix/match depending when you need stronger defense?  Both can play pretty much anywhere needed.  Espinal with much stronger defense, Biggio with the more established bat.  Gurriel might have value due to his strong arm and the bat he shows now and then with the nice contract.  Doubt the Jays would get much for Grichuk as his contract seems to match his value.  Tellez is a low value guy now in a trade, but someone might want him as part of a package - I wouldn't hesitate to include him if needed.

Scott Barlow is having a very good year so far for KC who are out of it - 2.04 ERA with a 2.00 FIP, 2.79 xFIP.  He looks good in a lot of ways and is under control through 2024.  Their DH/backup CA is very weak so Kirk would be very appealing to them.

Taylor Rogers for Minnesota is doing well, only controllable for 2021/22 so I'm sure they want to trade him with their team in the toilet.  Not sure what they need with a quick look at their team outside of pitching.  So maybe a prospect package, mixing in someone like Zeuch or Kay to help in 2021

Richard Rodriguez for Pittsburgh has been rumored like mad, under control through 2023, SS/corner OF are weaknesses so they might like Espinal, Gurriel, plus of course prospects/prospects/prospects.

I'm sure there are many others but those 3 jumped out to me.  Perfect world you get 2 of them and make our pen very deep especially as guys come back from the IL.  3B could use an upgrade as could LF but neither is critical IMO.  An ace for the rotation, again nice to have, but not critical especially given prices will probably be insane.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#401560) #
If you deal Grichuk to clear a spot for Kirk, are you comfortable running a Gurriel-Springer-Hernandez outfield every single day?

Punting outfield D is a contrarian move in 2021, but perhaps it's a way to get ahead of the foreign substance crackdown if fewer souped-up four seamers means fewer fly balls. (The flip side is one of several reasons I'm not buying the Rays this year.) Outfield D isn't one of the Blue Jays' strengths at the moment anyway, but that would be pretty bold.
uglyone - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#401561) #
You guys are talking about the same Montoyo that has pretty much run a pure vladdy/rowdy DH rotation whenever healthy up until rowdy finally played his way off the team?
Magpie - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#401562) #
a pure vladdy/rowdy DH rotation

Not all that pure. Guerrero and Tellez each made 19 starts at DH. The other 37 games were split among Bichette (9), Grichuk (9), Springer (7), Hernandez (4), Gurriel (3), Kirk (2), Panik (2), Semien (1).
earlweaverfan - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#401563) #
John, have you thought about St. Louis as a team to raid for a reliever? They look like they are not going to make the playoffs - what about Giovany Gallegos as a relief pitcher target?

Seems like another Barlow-like idea.

What would it take to snag him?
Michael - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#401564) #
If robo-umpires for strike zone is coming in a couple of years, the ability to frame pitches and catcher defense could change substantially in the relative near future. So some of the decision on catcher might change there.

Trades are about the other side valuing people more/enough and/or you valuing what you get back. The Jays don't *need* to get rid of any of their catchers today. They may be able to afford trading one of them, if they get something back of sufficient value, but if that is the case it will only be partially how the Jays value the catcher leaving and partially how the trading partner values the various Jays C.

The "problem" of possibly having too many reasonable choices (Jays in the outfield, at catcher) is a good problem. And health often will decide it at the end of the day and that "too much" actually becomes the needed "depth" to be a competitive team.
Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#401565) #
I expect robo umps are a few years away from the majors at best. I expect quite a bit of resistance to it from fans. One thing I expect to affect trades more than we think is possibility of Labor stoppage next year. Say we trade for Berrios and next year is lost to labor stoppage. That extra payment for year of control would be wasted.
scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#401566) #
Controllable relievers are a lot more expensive.
Free agents are quite  cheaper.
Relievers are so fungible that it's usually not worth it to invest in one for several years.
Cimber is a nice exception because he's a submarine pitcher.
They have him for another 3 years which is really great.
Bass did a great job for us and has not been good in Miami even though it's a pitcher friendly venue.
Closers are possible exceptions, also.
And teams who are planning on competing next year might not be interested in selling controllable relievers unless someone overpays in prospects for someone who can also have a high salary.

scottt - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#401567) #
Springer has never been an every day starter.
You can book on him missing some time, so you need another center fielder.
I like Grichuk as a 4th outfielder better than Biggio.

I'm not sure Vladdy really need all those DH days, but it's not my call.
Go A's, go!

Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#401569) #
Taking a glance at the Rulebook:

Rule 5.10
(f) The pitcher named in the batting order...shall pitch to the first batter or any substitute batter until such batter is put out or reaches first base...

(g) If the pitcher is replaced, the substitute pitcher shall pitch to the batter then at bat, or any substitute batter, until such batter is put out or reaches first base...

For National Association play only, the starting pitcher or any substitute pitcher is required to pitch to a minimum of three consecutive batters...or until the offensive team is put out

So, the new rule is an amendment that applies to all pitchers in MLB. However, the rules initially state that starting pitchers (by preceding rule) and the first reliever (from same rule) must face a minimum of only one batter. There is insufficient clarification.

Furthermore, player designations:

Rule 5.10
(d) Comment: A pitcher may change to another position only once during the same inning; e.g. the pitcher will not be allowed to assume a position other than a pitcher more than once in the same inning.

The game played on May 2nd, 1988 comes to mind; the one where Cecil Fielder and Kelly Gruber switched positions repeatedly. According to the rules, it seems like the same thing could be done legally with pitchers?

Kasi - Saturday, July 03 2021 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#401570) #
And yeah what Magpie broke down is what I would expect to see from Kirk if they put him in that spot. Aka roughly 1/4 of the DH games. Vlad gets one, Kirk gets one, two other teammates get the others.
scottt - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#401572) #
Biggio is hitting .471 over 17 AB against Yarbrough.
I'd probably have him hitting lead off and slide everybody down.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#401574) #
Espinal is now hitting .304/.355/.402 (wRC+ 108) and has posted 0.6 WAR in 110 PA. He's tied for sixth in WAR among Jays position players (ahead of Biggio and Grichuk). Very successful season for the 26-year-old overachiever so far.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#401575) #
" Aka roughly 1/4 of the DH games. Vlad gets one, Kirk gets one, two other teammates get the others."

Much as I like Kirk's bat, I just don't see this happening as long as an outfielder isn't traded. I much rather the current scenario where the outfielders rotate through the DH spot and only sit completely once in a while like yesterday when Bo DHed. I also prefer the defense-first, L/R combination of Jansen and MacGuire, and it wouldn't hurt Kirk to get steady playing time at AAA.
92-93 - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#401578) #
Some of us were pounding the table back in April for Espinal to get more playing time. It's nice that the team finally caught up to recognizing that defense matters.

Regarding Kirk, it's fun to talk about how the playing time could be divvied up, but Montoyo's quotes on the matter carry the most weight. The manager made it clear yesterday that "we're not gonna carry 3 catchers". Also interesting was Scott Mitchell tweeting that "Montoyo says he's going to run with Reese McGuire, the hot hand, behind the plate and find spots for Danny Jansen". That could be why Jansen didn't start yesterday even though the Jays faced a lefty; McGuire is seen as the starter for now.

Ideally, the Jays would have a more stable 8-man bullpen that would afford them the luxury of carrying Kirk as a 3rd C who starts 3-5x a week between C and DH.
Gerry - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#401579) #
Dolis is bacck.

Allgeyer is back to AAA, at least now he has pitched in the major leagues.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#401580) #
For some reason, "pounding the table" in support of a move makes me think of Nikita Khrushchev.

It's interesting to go back and read what people wrote when Espinal was acquired in 2018.

GabrielSyme had a good comment: "I quite like the return here - Espinal is high on the defensive spectrum and has a little speed. With that foundation, his bat looks quite intriguing - a quite strong contact rate and enough power to make it work."

Here's mine: "Taylor and Espinal are quite dissimilar, given their respective ages and present defensive abilities. I prefer Taylor, given his age (still only 19) and longer track record of decent offensive performance. But you can make a case that their rankings in the Jays system should not be that far apart."

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#401581) #
Let's say the manager uses an opener, then decides after one or two batters to replace that pitcher. The three-batter rule would apply. However, why does it negate or supercede the preceding rule? That clearly states a one batter minimum for a starter.

It just seems that not all pitching changes are created equal. If the manager replaces the pitcher, but does not remove that player from the game, why should the three-batter rule apply? After all, the player remains eligible to pitch. If a player shuffles between the mound and other positions during a game that rule is arguably inapplicable.

All right, it's Sunday... Hair of the Dog.

uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#401582) #
"Not all that pure. Guerrero and Tellez each made 19 starts at DH. The other 37 games were split among Bichette (9), Grichuk (9), Springer (7), Hernandez (4), Gurriel (3), Kirk (2), Panik (2), Semien (1)."

Oh it was pretty pure whenever they were healthy this season and last....until rowdy was demoted.
scottt - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#401583) #
The Jays could carry 3 catchers in September, that could be a sensible move if that's still the worst position offensively.
I don' t think I've seen a game yet in which bringing Davis in has made a difference defensively.

uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#401584) #
"much rather the current scenario where the outfielders rotate through the DH spot"

Kirk's bat is better than at least 2 of those OF. Why would you DH them ahead of him?
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#401585) #
Needless to say, today's game is one of those key swing games that could vault us right up next to TB, with a real shot at a WC spot by the break, or set us back and leave us needing sweeps on series later on. With a finally healthy lineup and a favorable SP matchup, this is an opportunity you don't want to mess up.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#401587) #
BTW about Kirk's tiny AAA 10pa sample of's now 22pa of 197wrc+.
bpoz - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#401588) #
I expect that we will be buyers at the deadline even though it is a long way off.

Regarding prospects, we are 2 months into the minor league season. Chavez Young is doing reasonably well in AA. Drafted in 2016 so a 6 year minor league FA after this year if not added to the 40 man.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#401589) #
Tellez/Gurriel had 15 of 23 DH starts in April, 12 of 25 DH starts in May, 11 of 24 DH starts in June (Tellez was demoted on the 22nd.) So a third of the DH starts were going elsewhere right from Opening Day, and as Tellez persisted in Not Hitting, it soon became half of the DH starts. Which will probably continue to some extent - Guerrero will continue to DH one game every four or five, and Springer will get slotted in there on a regular basis as well - he's the oldest position player on the team, and leg inuries put him on the IL in 2017, 2019, and this year. Caution will surely be exercised.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#401590) #
You forgot the injury to Tellez and resulting AAA stint.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#401591) #
I think I just don't understand what your plan is for Kirk. I can tell you this, though - no one becomes a major league catcher with 120 minor league games behind the plate. No one. Buster Posey comes close, but Posey came out of the cradle with Gold Glove skills. Now if Kirk's going to be a DH, this doesn't matter. But it depends on your plan for the player.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#401592) #
Sounds like you're actually criticizing the FO for skipping him from A+ all the way to MLB at 21.

Whereas I simply want Kirk's bat in the lineup, because it makes us a better team.

This is a team that has had to start Joe Panik at DH this year, and receives continual complaints about how poor the bottom of the lineup has performed with RISP.
hypobole - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#401593) #
Franco's defense has looked pretty solid. Especially so for a hot shot hitting prospect that just turned 20,
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#401594) #
On Thursday, the Blue Jays wore red jerseys for Canada Day. I did not see the Seattle Mariners wearing a Canadian flag on the side of their caps.

Today is the Fourth of July. All weekend, every team in MLB has been wearing special caps. Including the Blue Jays, who I am sure were required to participate.

When the All Star Game takes place next week, you can bet the Fox network will play commercials instead of broadcasting the national anthem of Canada.

Shame on the Seattle Mariners, the Fox network, and Major League Baseball for being so disrespectful.

Edward Rogers, Paul Beeston, and Mark Shapiro should also be deeply ashamed of themselves for permitting these outrageous insults.
hypobole - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#401595) #
Ryan Yarbrough career stats:

vs Toronto - 2.43 ERA

vs not TOR - 4.33 ERA

Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#401596) #
Sounds like you're actually criticizing the FO for skipping him from A+ all the way to MLB at 21.

I'll bet I wasn't wild about it. The Lloyd Moseby Experience probably soured me forever on the idea of rushing young players to the majors. Travis Snider didn't make me reassess.

I admit that by the time Kirk got hurt I was saying he's about ready to take Jansen's job away from him. But upon more or less sober reflection, what I don't understand, from the organization or from you, is what the plan is for this player. Has it been decided? I haven't decided. I'd rather keep the options open a little longer.

In the case of young Kirk, I think keeping the options open means he needs to be catching five games a week. For most of the next two months anyway. Maybe he doesn't need nearly as many minor league games as Molina or Realmuto or Perez or Mauer. But I have to think he needs more than he's had if he's going to be a catcher. I'd be rather reluctant to sacrifice a young player's potential development for what I think could at best be a marginal improvement in one season.

I realize you can't be too stubborn about the whole thing. There certainly comes a point when you have to give up on the player becoming a catcher. The Jays probably wasted two years of Carlos Delgado's career hoping he would turn into a decent catcher. But I don't think that point has been reached with Kirk.

One more thing - when was Tellez on the IL? Are you thinking when he was optioned to Buffalo at the end of April? He only missed 8 games up here and was back by May 7.

One more one more thing!! While there may have been some complaining about the team's offense, it wasn't from me! Not guilty, sir! Only one team in the majors has scored more runs. Complaining about that kind of offense feels like tempting fate or something.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#401597) #
It's also possible that I'm simply far more patient than may be prudent for someone as very, very old as myself. But I just don't think this is the year. I'm just looking for growth and improvement from this very young team. Post-season games would be a nice, if somewhat unexpected bonus. I don't require it in 2021.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#401598) #
I can't help it - whenever Martinez and Tabler reference someone they played against I have to look it up! Buck went 2-10 against Ryan with a couple of Ks. Tabler went 1-3.

Better than I expected from a couple of platoon guys, actually.
Chuck - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#401599) #
Hunter Wendelstedt runs an umpiring school. You wouldn't know it from his past two days of work.
Four Seamer - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#401600) #
The fact that Hunter Wendelstedt is considered qualified to teach other umpires does help to explain the parlous state of major league umpiring (and the shockingly bad performance of the minor league call-ups we get ďtreatedĒ to from time to time).
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#401601) #
Welp, there goes the favorable SP matchup.

Bullpen for the sweep!
krose - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#401602) #
Agreed Mags. This does not feel like the year. Too many things can and do go wrong; even before injuries make a mess of a lot of stuff. Poor base running, and team defence jump to mind. But that bullpen is still quite a ways from being good. Interesting to see the team improving but still a ways from the top tier.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#401603) #
Ah come on this has to be the year. Yanks surprisingly suck. Red Sox are smoke and mirrors. TB is finally falling apart.

Now is the time.
krose - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#401604) #
Good start from Ray. Can the offender pick him up. Defence cost him! Wonder if Springer goes back on the IL? Have noted he limped across 1B a couple games back. Also, limited innings in CF.
electric carrot - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#401605) #
I don't think the Jays are likely to win the World Series this year but dang, this is a great team. They have one weakness -- the bullpen. If the Jays play like they have with a little less misfortune they are the 3rd best team in the AL (so says Pythagorus.) And they're likely to play better with Springer, Biggio & Dolis back and Cimber on board. I just don't understand the pessimism. This is the year for playoffs baseball.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#401606) #
Using Springer as DH put teoscar in RF for that potential game losing defensive gaffe.
christaylor - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#401607) #
The Red Sox may or may not be smoke and mirrors but they have built a cushion. TOne argument for this being a year to push in trade chips and go for it is that is it likely the Jays will be able to make up for the expected loss of Semien in 2022? Also, is the revenue increase without games back in Canada worth going all in this year? Paint me skeptical in this year being the year. Both the Sox and Yanks are likely to rebuild next year. The two WC could come from the AL West.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#401608) #
We could choose to....not lose Semien.
krose - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#401609) #
Certainly wouldnít say donít try to go for the playoffs, but be measured in the effort. Donít sacrifice Kirkís chance to become a good catcher. Donít trade away a bunch of minor league talent to temporarily strengthen the bullpen.
christaylor - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#401610) #
Oh, grow up please. It's all made up and doesn't matter. It's not insulting and you come off across as a child seeking attention. If you're concerned about how often the US thinks of Canada you ought to travel to a place (there are many) that cannot distinguish between the country in which I live and that where I was born.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#401611) #
Losing the sweep thanks to defensive gaffes would be....appropriate.
lexomatic - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#401612) #
Why would Bichette get an error for a throw that is right on-line but hits the runner and bounces away? If it doesn't hit the runner he's safe but not moving ahead.
Four Seamer - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#401613) #
Until they sort out this sandlot style of defending and baserunning, hard to see how it would be prudent to go all-in with this crew.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#401614) #
Nice to have our bullpen healthy again......wait a sec...
krose - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#401615) #
Yes! Ugly! Have watched every game this season. Semien is my MVP. My impression is that the bullpen is a fatal flaw that requires a whole lotta fixís. Team defence pokes up its ugly face at crucial times and this offence has some unusual difficulties. Not sure how to address all that but hope there isnít an Anthopolous type of trade deadline. (Donít really believe this front office would do that.)
Spifficus - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#401616) #
Semien also gets a say in the matter.

As for the financial boosts of a playoff run this year, a lot of the attendance benefits are felt the year after, so while it might not be maximal benefit, it would still have a significant impact.

I think a lot of the improvements needed are in their supporting cast, though, so it's not necessarily something that'll cost a lot. Now, if you can get a star or frontline starter for a few years? sure, but otherwise fill in the holes with experienced, competent, low-cost roll player rentals from teams looking to shed a bit of salary on a lost year.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#401617) #
I stand by what I said.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#401618) #
Honestly I think it's a perfect opportunity to trade a a couple good pitching prospects for a top end prime aged SP, if possible.

Then you move a guy like Matz to the pen to bolster the RP. Then do another Cimber type move or maybe a guy a but more expensive.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#401619) #
1 run game with the meat of the order coming up in the 9th so of course our bullpen implodes.
Spifficus - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#401620) #
Only if the top end pitcher isn't a rental.

And I think Manoah would be the one that would be moved to the pen, given the desire to limit his innings, and his college experience as a reliever. And I'd be watching experienced relievers like Soria or Colon for signs of life, as well as Asdrubal Cabrera.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#401621) #
I wish I would have posted before the inning, but why was Dolis in the game there? Long DL stint and you throw him in a one run game? That's not smart.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#401622) #
Manoah's only at 55ip thru half the season....not sure innings limits is a big concern.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#401623) #
Why would Bichette get an error for a throw that is right on-line but hits the runner and bounces away?

Because it hit the runner (who took two extra bases as a result.)
Spifficus - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#401624) #
Things were starting to feel normalish and I forgot how little of the MiLB season there was, so I thought that decision was coming earlier. As is, it's probably a mid-to-late August choice.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#401625) #
Now could be the time if the team wasn't so young and made so many young person type mistakes.

But Montoyo now has three relief pitchers he can trust, which is one more than last week. That's progress, surely.

I'm a glass-is-half-full kind of guy.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#401626) #
Montoyo, former Rays employee, right?
scottt - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#401627) #
A few bad bounces.

On the second run, was Guerrero's throw offline or was Jansen standing too far from the plate to tag the runner?
Nice new mask, there, btw.

You have to account for every base. Once an infielder has the ball, you can only get an infield single.
Obviously, you can throw to first without hitting the runner.

Springer looked gimpy after falling off.
He seemed really unhappy about the check swing calls from first base.
Late innings, relievers who throws mostly just sliders, it can be tough on a right hitting team.

Still got 2 out of 3. Got an off-day and it's back to beating on Baltimore.

Hodgie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#401628) #
Was anyone else as confused as I was about the decision to not have Romano pitch the 9th? It didnít ultimately cost them the game, but I had assumed the reason Romano pitched yesterday was that Montoyo was fine using him on back-to-back days with the off day Monday. Apparently I was wrong.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#401629) #
Manoah's only at 55ip thru half the season....not sure innings limits is a big concern.

No concern whatsoever in my mind. If he makes all 15 starts remaining and works 80 IP - well, he's a pitcher, anything can happen. But it won't be because of overwork or abuse.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#401630) #
Was anyone else as confused as I was about the decision to not have Romano pitch the 9th?

I didn't find it confusing. I expected he was going to Dolis - let's get you back on the horse, and see if you can stay in the saddle. I assumed Romano was only loosening up in case there was a sudden lead to protect. But there wasn't.
Hodgie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#401631) #
Seems like an odd time for that, especially when there is no possible lead to protect once the game hit the ninth. Itís a nitpick, and like I said didnít cost the game this time, but itís such a poor decision.
Nigel - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#401632) #
Charlie doesnít seem to believe that Dolis has been bad for some time now.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#401634) #
Romano and Dolis were getting loose in the bottom of the eighth. If the Jays had taken the lead, Romano would have pitched the ninth. They didn't, Dolis came in, Saucedo got up in the pen.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#401635) #
I'd say it may very well have cost us the game, hodgie.

With Bo on 2nd the approach of vlad Springer and teoscar would be much different in a 1 run game than a 4 run game.

pooks137 - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#401636) #
Not sure how to address all that but hope there isnít an Anthopolous type of trade deadline. (Donít really believe this front office would do that.)

Kevin Goldstein, formerly of the Astros, wrote a trade deadline piece for Fangraphs earlier this week in which he gave an insider impression on how front offices conduct business

Fangraphs link

Some excerpts

Blue Jays

Behavior: Aggressive. The Jays know how to get deals done. They identify players as acquisition targets, then go after them while remaining responsive and rational

The funniest one was KG throwing some shade at Tampa Bay

Behavior: The Rays are always budget constrained, so they tend to play in the margins as they canít afford to add much in the way of payroll. Their asks/offers tend to start off exceptionally high/low, at times to the point of not being constructive in terms of generating traction on a potential deal.

AA's blurb with the Braves

Behavior: Atlanta is open-minded, responsive, and easy to work with.

Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#401637) #
On the second run, was Guerrero's throw offline or was Jansen standing too far from the plate to tag the runner?

I don't know. I assumed Jansen thought he had a better shot at the guy going to third than getting the guy coming home. The real problem was Hernandez misjudging the ball, and then - I've wanted to say this about something for so long - lollygagging after the ball.

Which would make him....
Hodgie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#401638) #
Which is basically my point Magpie - not bringing in Romano because it was not a save situation was a poor decision, further compounded by bringing in Saucedo. Itís one thing to lose in extras with Dolis or Saucedo on the mound when your options are limited, but watching a 1-run 9th inning deficit balloon to 4 while your best reliever watches from the pen is disappointing.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#401639) #
I'm sorry, but I can't get upset about losing today. They scored one run, they played lousy in the field. They deserved to lose. It's baseball. You play every day and sometimes you play like crap.
92-93 - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#401640) #
Sure, but it's still frustrating that the manager thinks a 5 run lead is a better spot for Romano than down 1 with an off day tomorrow and the heart of the Jays order coming up.
scottt - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#401641) #
Romano cannot pitch every day.

They would have lost any way. I hate wasting Romano in losses.

Bichette made the All-Star game.

Orioles have only Mullins.
Rays have only Zunino. I guess Cash doesn't want to distract his players there.
Red Sox have also Matt Barnes and Eovaldi and Martinez.
Yankees have Chapman and Cole.

dalimon5 - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#401642) #
This was a winnable game and a huge chance to build momentum and put the AL East on notice. I am with ugly and see this season as possibly our best for the next 3 years unless the front office jacks up the payroll to $200 million plus to sign 2 ace starters and strong bullpen additions on top of resigning the core.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#401643) #
the manager thinks a 5 run lead is a better spot for Romano

Sure. He's been paying attention. He's learned that a mere five run lead requires Romano. He's done screwing around. He's seen the other pitchers and if he's fortunate enough to take a lead into the ninth he's taking no more chances. If he's losing, he'll let the other guys audition for bigger jobs.
Kasi - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#401644) #
With labor stoppage being a real risk next year I'll be surprised if the Jays go as all in as some seem to think here. I'd expect moves similar to last seasons.

Anyway shame the Jays offence didn't show up, but I'm with Magpie and scottt here. You can't just use the same 3 relievers all the time. Plays played badly offensively and defensively and they lost.
uglyone - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#401645) #
Oh I will be even more surprised than you if they go all in.
Kasi - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#401646) #
And yeah I agree with Magpie there. Normally in the past with a decent bullpen 4 is that nice line where you can or can't bring in the closer and its a decent choice. Or maybe 3 if you have a 1a and 1b reliever. (which we hopefully get when Merryweather returns) With this bullpen now I don't think you can say that. Mayza and Cimber are not just guys you bring up against anyone in the team with their platoon splits.

But with this team yeah I think 4-5 run leads and bringing in Romano is perfectly fine. I assume the people complaining about bringing Romano in are some of the same people that got upset when we blew 4+ run leads earlier. Also I just don't think Romano is a good guy to bring in mid inning with base runners on, because he's pretty much an automatic steal. Also he's not the exact perfect control guy as last night showed so I am happy with them giving him fresh innings as much as possible.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#401647) #
Of course, seeing as how I think this team most closely resembles the 1983 team, I don't think they should go all in. I think they're at least one year away, probably two. Too young. Haven't seen enough life yet. Haven't stood around often enough with long faces, watching it all come to an unhappy end. They're still a bunch of cute young puppies. Some of them aren't even weaned yet (okay, I'm definitely going overboard with the metaphor now.)
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#401648) #
Incidentally - if you want to consider a fan base that must be truly frustrated and bewildered - I am growing increasingly interested in this year's Miami Marlins. The last place Marlins. Who have the best run differential in their own division, and yet are still in last place. I wonder if such a thing has ever happened before.

I see they lost again today, by a single run. So now they're 7-19 in one-run games. And they still have the best run differential in the NL East.
Hodgie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#401649) #
Even ignoring the fact that Montoyo was obviously comfortable using Romano again but simply chose not to, the narrative that the team just can't keep using the same 3 relievers is strange when Romano ranks 98th in reliever IP.
Alex Obal - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#401650) #
I thought it was pretty clear the 2021 team wasn't expected to contend, and I was down with that. After four successful years of totally uncompromising future "asset" accumulation, they entered 2021 with a killer offense that's under team control for a while, and a rotation of Ryu and ______. Almost there, but not quite. The pitching was a total void and there was no way of reliably building it into a strength before April. One final year of totally uncompromising future "asset" accumulation made enough sense.

So they understandably bought a few more short-term lottery tickets and built this mutt team that's RRRRR 1 through 5, has two regulars playing out of position every day, struggles at times to catch fly balls, and didn't have too much bullpen depth even before the injuries. A flawed team, but one that might conceivably maul pitchers enough to outscore all those flaws. If that didn't happen, they would have the option of dealing Semien, Yates, and any SPs at the deadline if they played well and the team went south.

As it turned out, Vlad obliterated all preseason (how soon we forget) expectations, Ray and Stripling look legit, the early returns on Manoah are good, and the division is a bit softer than it appeared on paper. Maybe a change of plans is in order. Maybe.
scottt - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#401651) #
They spent most of their money on Springer and he's barely played.
It's not their fault.
The rotation turned out fine.
The pen has not been good but that is hard to predict.
Dolis could have been better. Phelps could have stayed healthy.
Let's not even talk about Merryweather.

They're just a few games behind the Rays for the second wildcard.
The Yankees--who were everybody's favourite have looked really bad.
Is Boston's pitching going to hold up for another 3 months?
The Red Sox are not supposed to have any money to spend to get another starter and they are the one trying to accumulate assets, having dumped their MVP outfielder.

You guys are complaining way too much.
Maybe go watch the Toronto FC for a game or two?

John Northey - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#401652) #
Yeah, despite the painful games where they blew it late (shades of '83/'84) this is a good team. Slip into the playoffs and they might surprise people if a few guys get hot. The rotation has been great and should be fine in 2022...
  1. Ryu: 121 ERA+, a bit below his career 130, well back of his past 3 seasons (179) but still darn solid.
  2. Manoah: 165 ERA+, wow. Over 7 starts, 36 2/3 IP - 5 1/4 IP per start and growing. How can you help but love this kid? 5 of 7 starts allowing 1 or 0 Earned Runs, 4 times out of 7 with 6+ IP, 3+ in every start - even the one he got ejected from
  3. Stripling: 109 ERA+ overall, 2.35 ERA (around a 190 ERA+) since his big adjustment 8 games ago - 46 IP or 5.75 IP per game since the change. And given he and others talked about the adjustments he made at that point it is safe to say the change is real. 5+ IP every game from May 24th to now
Everyone else is under contract only for 2021.
  • Matz: 96 ERA+ over 14 starts, but this is a story of 2 seasons...His first 4 starts he was amazing 2.31 ERA, 5.8 IP per start, then 10 starts, 5.69 ERA 4.9 IP per start. Ugh. Guessing he surprised the first few teams this year, but then everyone adjusted and he hasn't fully adjusted back. Not a good situation at all.
  • Ray: roughly 130 ERA+ after today. A season of redemption as he shifts from frustrating walk machine to solid #1/2 starter. Once walked more than 3, 3 times 3+ walked, 7 times 2+ walked. 6 times 0 walked (all 6+ IP). No one would've bet on that pre-season. Just 2 of 16 starts with under 5 IP (both 4+), again no one would've bet on that. Last year he never lasted more than 5 IP, walked at least 1 in every game, 3 times walked 6 guys, in just 12 games. In all starts from September 15th 2017 to the end of 2020 he walked 0 6 times - which he has already done this year and that includes games with under 2 IP. He'll be interesting to watch the rest of the year and this offseason to see what kind of contract he gets offered.
So what do the Jays do about Ray & Matz? Matz you clearly let go to open a slot for Pearson/whoever unless he is willing to sign with an understanding that he could be moved to the pen. Ray you try to resign, but do you go $100 over 4 or 5 years? If he keeps this up I could see him getting that or more fairly easily. Ray is 29 this year, the same age that Randy Johnson went from 'meh' (5.7 BB/9) to 'wow' (under 4 BB/9 every season from age 29 to the end, 2.7 overall over 488 games, 3317 IP). Not saying Ray is Johnson, just that this matches Johnson for when to shift so it could be for real and could last a long time. Betting on him wouldn't be the dumbest move the Jays could make.

For kids...
  • Nate Pearson: the frustrating uber-prospect. 4.74 ERA in the minors this year, 4 BB/9 vs 13.1 K/9 so the arm is still there, but his 68 ERA+ over 20 1/3 IP in the majors sucks. Whatever is wrong, the Jays need to figure it out with him soon. I suspect he is in AAA until September at least unless he really gets it going.
  • Thomas Hatch: Jays clearly want him to be starting, 2.79 ERA in AAA suggests it might be the right move. Finally up to 5 IP his last start, so he needs more stretching out for 2022
  • Zach Logue: 9th round 2017 but now knocking on the door. 3 solid AAA starts, 2 of 5+ IP, but has a 90 pitch limit it seems (91 his max all year) - 2.1 BB/9 vs 11.4 K/9 this year, both excellent figures, split between AA/AAA. Another guy worth watching, his stock is climbing fast.
  • Anthony Kay: Can't forget him - has done OK in the majors (4.50 ERA this year over 30 IP), horrid in his 3 AAA starts (9.95 ERA over 12 2/3 IP). I see him as a #6/7 starter for the Jays, a guy who would be well served in a trade to a team desperate for starters, but hasn't enough value to be worth trading right now.
  • T.J. Zeuch: got hit hard in the majors, 4.24 ERA in AAA over 46 2/3 IP, low K guy who needs good defense and control to win. No better than 7/8 on the depth chart and I could even see him being released at some point.
  • Nick Allgeyer: given a couple shots at the majors, but really isn't in the plans I think - 5.4 BB/9 in AAA dictates that. Still, a depth guy who is nice to have in AAA just in case.
  • AAA also has Casey Lawrence and Jacob Waguespack - two AAAA guys at this point, not good enough for the majors, but probably frustrated being in the minors. Lawrence doing poorly (7.13 ERA), Waguespack doing well (3.43 ERA). Neither is coming up this year I suspect.
  • Elvis Luciano slowly regaining his form - 2.42 ERA in 7 starts, 4.4 BB/9 vs 9.3 K/9 but 0 HR's. A bit more control and he is in the picture for 2022.
  • Simeon Woods Richardson: Super prospect, now throwing for team USA in the Olympics, has been wild (5 BB/9) but K's a lot (13.8 before today). Just 4 IP per start so needs to work on his game plan - mainly control. I see him as a 2nd half of 2022 or 2023 now.
Those are the guys I see fighting for a rotation slot in 2022. Pearson has the inside edge, along with Hatch - those 2 just need to be healthy and have a spot open to get it. Logue, Luciano, SWR all will be fighting hard for an open slot but are needing to impress a lot in spring next year and do well this year in the minors to grab it. Others like Kay, Zeuch, Allgeyer, and others need to do something 'wow' to get someone's attention. Right now all of them should be looking at a pen slot as their best route to the majors, or a lot of injuries.

For 2021 the current 5 are solid - all going 5+, all with ERA+'s around 100 or better. Kay is a decent #6, Hatch looks ready if needed, Pearson....injured (last start on June 16th, just as he was starting to show signs of being who we hoped he'd be with 2 solid games in a row). Sigh. If a trade for a starter happens it needs to be for a long term guy who'd take Matz's slot imo. Ryu/Manoah/Stripling/Ryu are all doing too well right now to pull from the rotation.
John Northey - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#401653) #
For those who didn't see it - Bo is on the All-Star team. So 4 Jays on the team. Not bad. 2016 was the last with that many - it had 5 (Encarnacion, Donaldson, Estrada, Sanchez, Saunders), none starting. Last with 3+ starting was 1993 with Alomar, Carter, Olerud, Molitor, plus Devo, Hentgen, and Ward on the bench. This was the infamous one in Baltimore where Mussina (then an Oriole) got up and warmed up despite not being told to leading to the crowd booing while Ward was closing out the game.
Kasi - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#401654) #
I think Matz is fine, but I think Kay could take his spot next year as the number 5 with little drop off. Ryu hasn't dropped in physical stuff this year, I think its the inconsistency at catcher that's hurting him most right now. Ray is the big worry to lose, hopefully he gets replaced by someone good or we can resign him. Other than the Ray question I think our starting pitching will be fine next year. I totally see why they're not rushing to turn Hatch into a reliever though.
Magpie - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#401655) #
[Matz's] first 4 starts he was amazing... but then everyone adjusted and he hasn't fully adjusted back.

His last 4 starts before his COVID break: 2-1, 3.32, 25K, 6BB, 22H in 21.2 IP. The really rough patch came in between, when he tossed 4 lemons in 5 outings.
John Northey - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#401656) #
Not too worried about Matz - with the other 4 doing solid work he can be 'meh' for awhile without fear. The biggest issue is Ryu - since the start of June his ERA is 5.35. With Jansen catching opponents are hitting 244/275/407, with McGuire 254/301/433, with Adams 227/306/500. Clearly he does best with Jansen so that will help. So a McGuire/Jansen combo behind the plate for 2021 with McGuire getting the most time right now while Jansen is Ryu's personal catcher and does day games after night games or the night before a day game depending on Ryu's day to pitch. If Jansen's bat comes to life and McGuire's drops then things might shift but that works fine for now. Get Kirk as many reps behind the plate as possible in AAA so when he is called up he can catch a lot.
Kasi - Sunday, July 04 2021 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#401657) #
Somewhat worried about Ryu as well but his velocity seems fine so I think its just an approach thing and not a sign that he's in physically in serious decline.
John Northey - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#401658) #
Kasi - that is my first thought as well, lets check some numbers...

April/May: 10 starts, 238/264/377, 68% strikes (19% looking, 11% swinging), 0.95 ground ball rate, 23% line drives, 1 stolen base attempt (caught).

June 1st to now: 6 starts, 254/315/500, 64% strikes, (19% looking, 7% swinging), 0.94 ground ball rate, 23% line drives, 0 stolen base attempts

So what jumps out? A few less strikes, mainly it seems they aren't swinging and missing - 6 of 10 games pre June he had 10+ swings and misses. Since June 1st just once. Line drives are identical, they aren't running on him either before or after. Seems to be a clear issue of not fooling hitters - they aren't missing when they swing as much. Sounds very much like an approach thing which hopefully Jansen can help with.

FYI: Ray has just 2 games all year with under 10 swings and misses, his first start and his start vs Miami on June 23rd. He cracked 20 3 times. His strikes looking is 15% vs 16% swinging, 66% are strikes. Interesting to look at two very different pitchers on the same staff and see that.
scottt - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#401659) #
The last few games, he wasn't hitting the corners like he's used to.
If he misses on a pitch, he can still get the hitter on the next one and the only difference is one more pitch thrown.
Except, the more he misses, the more he'll walk.

3 walks in April.
5 walks in May.
11 walks in June.
2 walks in July, so far.

scottt - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#401660) #
Back to Baltimore while the Rays are hosting Cleveland.

Cleveland will start Logan Allen, J.C. Mejia and Sam Hentges in this series.
Civale, Bieber and Plesac are all on the IL and Triston McKenzie has struggled and gone back to AAA.
Very easy to see why Atkins and Shapiro want to keep all the guys who can start stretched and wait until they run out of options to move them to the pen.

Manoah has been great.
He's not focused on one pitch or on one pattern.
I think that's mostly the issue with Kay.
He fell in love with his cutter and became predictable.
His last 2 outings he was throwing lots of sliders instead.
I'd like them to send Thornton down and try to stretch him.
Payamps and Murphy are on their last option.
It looks like Beasley and Bergen have cleared waivers and been outrighted to Trenton.

The Jays have set July 30 for a return to Toronto.
Will the federal government nix that or will the players make a fuss about possible restrictions?

bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#401661) #
The rotation has done well. Manoah is a welcome surprise. Matz and Stripling have the 2nd half to show exactly who they are. Pearson's injuries are a very big disappointment.

Yates, Phelps, Chatwood and Dolis are the 4 veterans that were counted on. Basically they are a waste. Romano and Borucki were 2 kids counted on. All the others had something to prove. Merryweather, Mayza and Murphy I suppose. Mayza is doing fine as an ok option.

Zeuch, Kay, Hatch and Thornton were at the top of the 2nd level pitching help. All disappointing. As a result the likes of Castro, Payamps, Saucedo and Barnes are getting opportunities. But they should not be pitching with the game on the line, but are pitching due to necessity.

The team is gaining experience this year. Semien has been very valuable. A great 1 year gamble. Springer has provided very little.

McGuire has regained luster. Jansen is doing well defensively. So both have value. Kirks injury has set him back, with no opportunity unless Jansen/McGuire get injured. Adams got to see what ML baseball is all about.

With Ray, Matz and Semien becoming FAs the team will lose talent. Springer hopefully stays healthy and makes up for the loss of Semien. We save money with Roark gone.
electric carrot - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#401662) #
At this point Ray is the ace of the staff based on results/stats -- Manoah knocking on the door. And Semien is arguably the best hitter/fielder -- at minimum the second best. Neither is likely to be back next year. How do we not go for it this year? For once we got lucky. This kind of thing won't happen twice.
greenfrog - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#401663) #
If the team can find a couple of controllable assets via trade, they can go for it this year and in future years. That would be the best outcome. Alternatively, they can spend less prospect capital at the deadline and acquire a couple of rental players. Even if the team loses Ray and Semien to free agency, they should have some internal reinforcements next year (such as Smith, Moreno, Martin, Taylor, Lopez, SWR) plus cash to spend on free agents.

No harm is seeing whether Ray can be extended, though. The ASB might be a good time to work out an extension with him.
bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#401665) #
This is the 6th year with Shapiro and Atkins. LaCava was the genius that got Happ and Estrada signed.

None of the 6 years have resembled each other. Made the playoffs in 2016 with AA's team. That team did not make the playoffs the next 2 seasons. The team got younger at the 2018 trade deadline and also 2019. 2020 was a "gift" playoff spot due to covid.

Shapiro taught us/me "financial flexibility" in 2020. Spent money on Ryu which may be a good/ok/bad expense. Spent more money on Springer which can also be good/ok/bad. Shapiro also said a good farm is the most important thing to have. Then supplemented with good FAs. Also trades I suppose.

Atkins is trying to develop the farm and is signing FAs that could be good/ok/bad. He has not struck gold on any of his trades yet.

Ownership values the bottom line so they don't have a "spend stupid" philosophy. A budget exists but I don't know what it is. The team has to win enough to make good revenues within the budget. Shapiro knows this. K Morales was a bad FA signing because he did not produce enough. Ash, Richardi and AA did not have enough success in time to prevent job loss. In AA's case his duties were restructured. So far Shapiro seems safe due mainly to having a low budget. He has to win at a certain level if the budget gets expensive. He probably stays with a medium budget IMO.
hypobole - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#401666) #
The teams record will tell the FO what to do at the deadline. We may have gotten lucky with Semien. But I think lucky applies much less to Ray .

Pitching coaches have been known to fix guys. In addition to Ray, Stripling has been about as good as anyone could have reasonably expected since he's been changed. Romano went from a non-prospect that was returned in the Rule 5 (and cleared waivers in the process) to become our closer in large part due to the coaching staff. Target the right undervalued pitchers and trust the coaches, if you have the right coaches. And right now we seem to be one of the teams that do.
electric carrot - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#401669) #
I get your point hyperbole. Good coaching isn't lucky. My idea of luck here is more in the universe of possibilities brand of luck rather than something that is undeserved. It just seems to me in the universe of possibilities the idea of getting your two best players in one year deals on a team that's already stacked and where the good coaching seeds such good results is flukey in a way that's kind of fantastic and something to consider as you plan your moves forward in your limited window of opportunity with these two unexpected and temporary gems in hand.
bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#401670) #
Interesting point hypobole about P Walker I presume being able to make big performance improvements with pitchers.

P Walker is a holdover from Gibby time. I don't know how long he has been here. Biagini, Ray, Romano is a small sample. There are probably more. Maybe Shoemaker, Gaviglio, Waguespack and possibly others. It would be nice to see Thornton, Kay, Hatch and Zeuch also get good. Walker has no shortage of projects.
Kasi - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#401676) #
electric carrot you just can't go all in for a one game wild card. It is what it is but the Jays struggles with the bullpen and in late games (abysmal record in both one run and extra inning games) have us 8.5 back. Not an impossible amount to catch up but right now the Sox have a 70% chance to win the division with Tampa at 12 and us at 10 and NY 8. I do expect to see them do trades like they did last year. Just don't see them shipping out a big piece unless they get someone with 2-3 years of control.
hypobole - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#401679) #
Maybe this is a limited window of opportunity this year, but I don't think so and I don't think the FO does either.

Which controllable players will get huge increases? Vlad is Super 2, so he will. Is Bo Super 2? Teoscar will be paid in arb. Can't think of anyone beyond that getting a sizable pay jump.. But there will be money coming off the books, so they should still be able to spend.

There are legit prospects that may either be future trade chips or cause current players to be trade chips. Atkins just has to be smarter than he has been with some moves in the past. The Morales and Roark signings did not go well to say the least. But even if they had reached the 80th percentile of good outcomes, they still would have had no real upside. Don't ever do that again Ross, and we'll be fine, potentially elite, for another 4 years.
bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#401680) #
Kasi, I understand years of control as explained by Atkins in the Stroman trade. Also AA had a few words about that.

Stripling was that kind of trade. We gave up a lot more years of control but our less years of control are for a ML pitcher who is doing very well now.

Before Springer was signed I speculated on Brandon Marsh being an interesting player. An OF that may be surplus to LAA. I don't want him as much any more because we have 4 established OFs. Maybe SR Foley would have gone the other way because SRF is pretty much ML ready.

If that trade was to be made now I may give up R Adams. If they want a pitcher then Zeuch. I don't think Thornton is much better than Zeuch, so one or the other.

I should check back in 4 years to see how I did. Marsh for player A,B or C.
Kasi - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#401682) #
I just think there is a 50% or higher chance of some form of work stoppage next year. This is baseball, the union and ownership have never been smart about caring about the brand above their own self interests. I think there would be higher chance of stuff happening if not for that, but I think that will put a damper on premium teams will pay for assets that will cost more.

Anyway it's not like I'm not expecting them to add. I expect to see another bullpen piece and likely a mid level starter both in the second half. But they're not going to sell the farm for a david price 2015 type rental.
92-93 - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#401683) #
Why do people keep responding to good posts about the Jays current position with an aversion to going "all-in"? The next time someone on this site suggests the Jays go all-in at the 2021 trade deadline will be the first. What is being astutely pointed out is that while the Jays weren't really expected to contend this year, they got a huge leap forward from Guerrero into an MVP-caliber bat, along with elite performances from impending FAs in Ray and Semien. The team that was favored to win the division, the Yankees, are a talented mess right now. It would be a real shame to see this opportunity go to waste, but thankfully there is no reason to think it will and one can be confident that the front office will take the appropriate steps to bolster the squad for a run at the playoffs. Doing so won't require anything close to going "all-in", as the Jays' own trades of Stroman and their serviceable RP the last few years have proven.

Would love to hear what the people who keep using the phrase "all-in" think it means in today's baseball landscape.
92-93 - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#401685) #
Only Hernandez and Guerrero are due "huge increases" for 2022, but there will be lots of the small bumps. Stripling can also earn himself an extra 2-3M with a strong finish.

Borucki, Mayza, Thornton, Tellez and Jansen will join Guerrero in Arb 1, and there's a good chance Biggio does as well.
Kasi - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#401686) #
Because I think the types of trades the Jays are likely to make aren't going to satisfy some here who expect something bigger. Say they got a good but not great bullpen piece and another Walker type starting pitcher? Would that satisfy you? And it doesn't matter if the Yankees are bad this year, the problem right now is the Sox and their 8.5 game lead. Tampa is not going anywhere anyway as well.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#401688) #
" Atkins is trying to develop the farm and is signing FA's that could be good/ok/bad. He has not struck gold on any of his trades yet."

I mostly agree, bpoz, but there was that little trade in 2017 where Francisco Liriano was sent to Houston for Teoscar Hernandez ( and Nori Aoki). That was kind of golden.
Kasi - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#401692) #
Reese McGuire looks like a solid pickup. Kay has some potential too. Taylor in the minors has some upside.
bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#401693) #
Very true ISLAND BOY. Seems I have difficulty thinking of trades before Drury/McKinney. Grichuk was also a good trade as was A Diaz. After the Happ trade there is Stripling.

The above trades seem to show that Atkins knows how to coax "not in their teams plans" players from other organizations while giving away his "not best" players.

Chase Anderson was not wanted and the return was a low level player. That clearly did not work which made Atkins acquire Ray, T Walker and Stripling to boost the team.

greenfrog - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#401695) #
I was going to mention Taylor (he and Pannone were acquired for Joe Smith) as well. The Stripling trade is also looking pretty decent, though it remains to be seen how the prospect used to acquire him performs. Merryweather could prove to be a good salvage acquisition, if he can stay healthy.
92-93 - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#401699) #
The situation is fluid as the trade deadline approaches. There are 19 games left before the deadline, with 7 against BOS and 3 against TB. The four days leading up to it are @ Fenway, where the Jays could have easily swept a 4 game series on their last visit. If the Jays are riding momentum into the deadline and their haul is limited to a Walker-type (for a PTBNL) and a middle reliever it will be pretty disappointing and an opportunity squandered. If, however, the standings don't change much between now and then it would make sense to limit the acquisitions to marginal upgrades like that. Ashbourne has a piece up at Sportsnet predicting targets.
bpoz - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#401702) #
Good read 92-93.
Kasi - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#401705) #
Yeah I read that too but also found it telling that there was no description of a blockbuster trade. He seems to have accepted that the Jays aren't making a big trade like 2015. Which I agree makes sense if they're only in the wild card. I do agree those seven games against the Sox are big. I think we need to win 5 to really be buyers.
hypobole - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#401707) #
Kasi, the reason he had no blockbusters is that he used the 2016 and 2020 trades as a template for this years possibilities. There was no blockbuster to use as a template.
electric carrot - Monday, July 05 2021 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#401710) #
5 to be buyers.

We have played nearly exactly half the games so far. Making winning 5 games against Boston the requirement for a trade I think is a copout. I mean you either believe that you have what it takes for the next half of the season or your don't. One game extra w/l against Boston before the trade deadline I think is an abdication of your responsibility as a GM to make the right move. 10.8 percent chance I don't think is representative of their actual chances given what we know about this team as I have explained earlier in the post. The truth is this team has already shown that it's great and is just missing one or two relievers plus a little better luck to push to the top. Make the move now and give yourself a better chance to beat Boston 5 times. Show some guts Atkins!
Kasi - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#401723) #
Right he used that as a template and not 2015 for a reason. 2015 lacked a strong AL east team. This year with Boston (who is winning again tonight) and Tampa who won again you canít say that. So if the writers arenít expecting a big trade why is anyone here?

As for your point electric I said the Jays will make more moves. I expect another bullpen piece and another starting option as minimum. I never said the Jays are not going to make moves. I just donít expect anyone more exciting than what we got last year. Would you be happy with another Ray and Stripling? Or letís say they get Ian Kennedy and Michael Pineda. Maybe you can tell me what kind of trade you envision here? I read the article above and Tammys recent one on blue Jays nation. Both seem like quite reasonable takes and likely line up with what I think will happen. A few 10-30th ranked prospects traded out for a couple solid pitching pieces that could bolster the team. Maybe move out a higher guy like Smith or one of our OFs for someone.

My point on the winning five against Boston is what would it take for Toronto to make a big move, like trading for a Scherzer type. If theyíre still 6-8 games out of first at the trade deadline theyíre not going to trade top prospects for a rental. If theyíre like 2-4 games thatís a different question and I could see something happening. For that to happen Boston needs to start losing and we need to beat them when we play.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#401729) #
Big trade? Little trade? I agree with all the opinions. They have merit IMO.

Looking at the standings I see LAA in 10th place with a 42-42 record. Jays with a 43-39 record in 7th. Oakland is 5th with a 49-37 record. So 2 tiers of playoff contenders with half a season to go. Some optimism exists.

4 Jays going to the ASG and Vlad having an MVP level season. The rotation of Ray, Ryu, Manoah and Stripling seems very good with Matz capable of being fairly good as well. More optimism.

Definitely pessimism for the pen. But there is optimism that acquisitions, promotions and returning players from the IL will strengthen the pen.

We will see if a SP can be acquired that can crack the current rotation because he is better than someone currently in the rotation. A depth SP in case of injury cannot hurt and the acquisition cost will equate to what we get. The 2016 F Liriano trade is an example of taking on salary.

Any good SP dangled will be competed for. SD, LAD etc...
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#401731) #
I think we need to win 5 to really be buyers.

I see Kasi. When I read your note I thought you were saying we should not trade at all unless we win 5 against Boston.

My main point is though that in my opinion the evidence is already in about this team. After 82 games they are the third best team in the AL by Pythagorus with one glaring weakness. No more evidence is needed. Plug the hole ASAP. We don't need Scherzer -- we need one or more Duane Wards.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#401733) #
So who should the Jays target?
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#401734) #
I do not know. I really don't follow other teams' relievers. I should hope that Atkins can do this tho without my help.
electric carrot - Tuesday, July 06 2021 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#401779) #
And it looks like he has. Nice job Atkins.
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