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Let's sail the windy seas of Accountancy, and crunch a few numbers.

This is the off-season of the Arbitration Awards, and MLB Trade Rumours projects them for everyone. Along with the existing commitments, this is how the 2023 Blue Jays line up before they do anything at all. (Props to Stoeten for laying out some of the implications, and being my source for the Shapiro quote. I've decided he's worth the subscription price, so I've paid it.)

George Springer: 22.5 million
Kevin Gausman: 21 million
Hyun-Jun Ryu: 20 million
Jose Berrios: 15 million
Vladimir Guerrero Jr: $14.8 million*

Teoscar HernŠndez: $14.1 million*
Matt Chapman: 12 million
Yusei Kikuchi: 10 million
Whit Merrifield: 6.5 million
Bo Bichette: $6.1 million*

Lourdes Gurriel Jr: 5.4 million
Raimel Tapia: $5.2 million*
Yimi Garcia: 5 million
Jordan Romano: $4.4 million*
Danny Jansen: $3.7 million*

Adam Cimber: $3.2 million*
Anthony Bass: 3 million (1 million buyout)
Cavan Biggio: $2.6 million*
Santiago Espinal: $2.1 million*
Tim Mayza: $1.9 million*

Trevor Richards: $1.5 million*
Bradley Zimmer: $1.3 million*
Trent Thornton: $1.1 million


Alejandro Kirk: $ 1 million**
Alek Manoah: $ 1 million**
Mitchell White: $ 1 million**
Zach Pop: $ 1 million**
Tayler Saucedo: $ 700 K**
Nate Pearson: $ 700 K**
Matt Gage: $ 700 K**
Otto Lopez: $ 700 K**

* MLBTR estimate
** Magpie picks a number at random

TOTAL: $ 189.2 million. The Opening Day salary in 2022 was $171 million. MLB's soft cap (officially the "Competitive Balance Threshold") will be going up to $ 233 million for 2023. It was $210 million in 2021, and went up to $230 million this year with the new CBA.

There are 31 players listed here, which is more than will be on the Opening Day roster barring a lot of spring training injuries. Obviously you're going to non-tender Tapia and Zimmer long berore anyway. That would get you down to $ 182.7 million.

There's a lot more wiggle room a year from now when Ryu, Hernandez, Chapman, and Merrifield will come off the books. (I assume they'd like to keep Chapman.) But if they want to sign someone who wants a lot of money this winter, they may be looking to see if they can back-load the contract at all. Which is certainly not something I'd want to do with a pitcher.

At any rate, quite a bit of what Ross Atkins tries to do this winter is going to first depend on Mark Shapiro's success on sweet-talking the corporation suits into putting more coins in his purse. Once the bean-counters have finished counting the beans.

Here's Shapiro in 2021:

 I'm not sure, with how we're currently constructed, we've got the revenues to support a team that goes over the CBT. That's not to say that ownership doesn't make the strategic decision at some point to go over. But I feel like we can continue to raise the payroll, as we already have done, to unprecedented levels.

Go get 'em, Mark. Remind them of the full houses for those two home playoff games. CA-CHING! Wouldn't even more be cool? CA-CHING! And the TV ratings? CA-CHING! Unprecedented levels! Make it happen.

What's Next, Jays Fans | 142 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Jonny German - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#423720) #
One more minimum wage guy - Zach Pop.

Per BBRef and Merrifield is guaranteed $6.75M for 2023 and has a $18M mutual option for 2024, with a $500k buyout.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#423721) #
Forgot Pop!

Cot's is my source for the Merrifield buyout if they did it this winter.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#423722) #
And further study of all the clauses of the Merrifield deal (at Cot's) persuades me that you're right - a restructuring earlier this year guaranteed the 2023 option at $2.75, going up to $6.75 if he managed to stay off the IL for 109 days. He did go on the IL, but not that long.
85bluejay - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#423723) #
Reading what Ross Atkins purportedly said and it looks like it will be another tinkering around the edges off-season - running it back - I'm not excited - Anyways, the young exciting Raptors open their season soon and I really like their trajectory - excellent, forward-thinking FO, smart coach and a young talented roster - Go Raptors!
Paul D - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#423724) #
Michael Brantley is once again available, and could be an ok 5th of. Maybe him and/or Kiermaier
Nigel - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#423725) #
Yes, Iím glad itís almost Raptors season too.

Without a payroll increase itís hard to do much but tinker around the edges unless you do an ďasset reallocationĒ trade (ie trade one of your young stars for other assets). The $30m tied up in Ryu and Kikutchi is dead money. You can non tender Tapia and that helps a little. Youíd rather not have the Merrifield hit given the redundancy with Biggio and Espinal (and that was always the problem with that deal) but itís only one more year. Increasing payroll and turning the C surplus into something useful is really their only play to improve the club outside of an asset reallocation trade.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#423726) #
the young exciting Raptors open their season soon and I really like their trajectory

They're sure to be fun, but they're kind of stuck in the upper middle class of NBA teams. There's very little chance of them competing for a championship this year. They're hoping to make the post-season, win a round, but mostly start to see just how good Scottie Barnes can get. You simply don't win in that league without a top ten player, and they don't have one. Individuals have a far greater impact than they do in baseball or hockey.
Kasi - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#423727) #
Kawhi was the last trade of a big star that happened before prices got absolutely stupid even for one year rentals. That trade now would have involved two firsts and pick swaps plus player. Compare that to the Lakers Westbrook trade or recent Harden trades. Great for the Raptors to get a star that year and capitalize on it but itís not happening again.

On the Jays donít see much unless they bump payroll. I agree Ryu is sunk cost. I disagree that Kikuchi is. Not sure why White went from good in LA to garbage here but they need to just get him to be a 5ip 3er guy and Iíd be happy. So unless they offload a contract like Teoscar I donít see them taking much on.

My guess is theyíll
1. QO or resign Stripling
2. Sign a reliever (just one)
3. Sign a reclamation starter (1 year 8-14 million guy)
4. Maybe swing a trade for a CF or some other cost controllable asset using our extras as Catcher.

Donít expect any big singing SS or blockbuster deals.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#423728) #
" The young exciting Raptors"

I only watch basketball occasionally but recognize the Raptors often overachieve through working hard and good coaching. I'd rather follow the Leafs, frustrating as they are, as they are a young, exciting team, too. They amassed the most points in team history last year, have a generational scorer in Auston Matthews, and, best of all, a coach in hockey doesn't pull a player who is doing well from the game. ( Yes, I'm still bitter about the last Jay's game.)
bpoz - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#423729) #
If I remember correctly, the 1991 team lost to the Twins but seemed very determined to win it all the following year. FAs Winfield and J Morris were signed. Guzman continued to be good. Rookies Hentgen and Timlin were added. Other kids may have been called up. I can't remember when Sprague and Derek Bell got promoted. I believe D Cone was traded for in 1992 or 1993.
The main thing is that that window was closing. This window is just opening. Old team VS young team.

When do you add? What do you add? I don't know the plan.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#423730) #
a coach in hockey doesn't pull a player who is doing well from the game.

I know I'm the only one, but I was fine with a pitching change at that moment. Santana had come about three inches from a three run homer his last time up. And even though he'd retired the last two hitters, Gausman simply didn't look as sharp as he had earlier. I was reminded of the 28-5 game, when he sat in the dugout for a long time watching them score lots of runs, and wasn't sharp when he came back into that game. I thought the same thing was happening here.

So I was fine with a pitching change. Just not that pitching change. And they still took a four run lead into the eighth inning...
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#423731) #
So unless they offload a contract like Teoscar I donít see them taking much on.

That seems the obvious path to me, but making it work seems extraordinarily difficult. For whoever is getting him, it's a "win right now" move, acquiring someone in his walk year. Teams usually pay for that in prospects. That's unlikely to be what the Jays are looking for, who would also need to somehow replace what they're giving up in the outfield. So is there a) a contender, that b) needs a RH power bat in the outfield, but somehow still c) has a surplus of major league outfielders? That's quite the needle to thread.
Kasi - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#423732) #
They could trade him for a prospect who is close. Say an OF at AA or something. Then use that money to fill a need. But then it becomes a two step process and at the end of it you might not make the team better just youíre trading Teo for some other piece. But if they could get someone useful on like a 3/30 or 2/18 contract (like Kikuchi cost but one that actually works out) that might work. I donít mind them being a bit riskier and trying to hit on a young up and comer. Would extend the window and spread out the big contracts a bit more. Ofc they need to find the right player to fill it.
Dez - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#423733) #
Canít they trade for prospects, and flip them (or other prospects already in the system) for a major leaguer? Atkins will need to get creative, but I doubt itís happening. The most likely scenario is the team is brought back, the bullpen is tweaked, and we win 90+ games again. Canít say thatís a bad thing, just not an exciting thing.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#423734) #
They could trade him for a prospect who is close. Say an OF at AA or something. Then use that money to fill a need.

Or a pitcher, come to think of it. Merrifield to CF, Springer to RF. You definitely lose some offense, and you may need a fourth outfielder unless you feel really good about Otto Lopez....
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#423735) #
Or they could just go find an actual CF like the Rays, Guardians, and Yankees have had no problem doing.

Running back this same squad with some changes on the fringes would be a massive mistake.
Nigel - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#423736) #
For all the reasons that Magpie lays out I think that the ship of using Hernandez as the asset reallocation trade chip has sailed. He was the ideal chip last offseason to move. He's worth more to the Jays than moving him as he just isn't that valuable a trade piece now that he has no pre FA term left and is getting closer to market value on his salary. I'm not for a second suggesting it, but Vladdy or Bo are the guys to move now if you want to reallocate your key resources across different parts of your roster. I just don't see anything big like that happening.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#423737) #
It really shouldn't be that difficult to move Hernandez and/or Gurriel for a pitcher with the same one year of control.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#423738) #
I see this team as having a good shot at winning 1 of the 6 playoff spots as is. Maybe even without Stripling. The schedule is changed which should make it easier.

We will find out if the Jays QO Stripling when it is time. I don't know if they QO him.

Playoffs are a crap shoot it seems. NYM are out and they won 101 games.

Manoah, Gausman and hopefully a better Berrios are the 3 top SPs. We need 5 more to get to 8 possible SPs. I don't know if Kikuchi will be handed a rotation spot. He may have to compete for the spot. Mitch White I think has no options left so he will be on the team as a SP/long man with a chance to replace an injured SP or get spot starts.

I don't think prospects like Tiedemann, Zulueta etc... make the team on Opening day but may get promoted fast if deserving like Manoah did.

Kay, Hatch & Thornton could help the pen as long men or 1 inning guys. They have been mediocre which is not good enough.

Pearson and Merryweather if healthy finally, should help in the pen.

Time for some pleasant surprises. We have candidates.

Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#423739) #
It really shouldn't be that difficult to move Hernandez and/or Gurriel for a pitcher with the same one year of control.

Got someone in mind?
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#423740) #
No, because I don't work in an MLB front-office and I don't know much about the other teams' depth charts. What I do know is that it's a bad, defeated attitude to constantly think that things can't get done, be it because of a lockout or lack of options. Good management recognizes when their roster has holes and works to fix them. They simply must get some LH balance into the lineup. If they need to "lose" on a Hernandez trade, so be it.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#423742) #
What is my bet? I've made it pretty clear but why not?
  1. A trade with Arizona involving one of our 3 catchers for one of their LH CF'ers. Daulton Varsho was the best last year (4.6 fWAR 106 wRC+) and can backup C if needed. Jake McCarthy had a solid year (2.3 fWAR 116 wRC+) but is weak on defense. Corbin Carroll is their super-prospect (1.4 fWAR 130 wRC+ in 32 games) thus most desirable and most expensive. Alek Thomas is their current CF (0.5 fWAR 71 wRC+) but his bat was sad this year while his glove was great but was a regular 130+ wRC+ in the minors and has a full 6 years of control. Pavin Smith (0.1 fWAR 87 wRC+) again has potential but flopped in 2022. So lots of guys one could chase there and they need a catcher and a right handed power bat - Jansen certainly would fill both roles instantly for them, or Kirk while Moreno would fit the youth movement there. Carroll is the dream, but Thomas could work out very well too.
  2. CF: Kevin Kiermaier is a free agent and could cover CF nicely and does bat left handed all depending on what he demands. If Arizona isn't willing to make a reasonable deal then Kiermaier is a solid backup choice for CF to shift guys around. Brandon Nimmo is another CF option as a free agent but would be a lot more expensive coming off a 5.4 fWAR season.
  3. Signing a big gun for the rotation if Rogers offers the budget space - Jays almost had Verlander last year, with injury concerns there are 2 other great options in deGrom & Rodon. Or a slightly lower level pitcher in Chris Bassitt (3.2 bWAR after a 4.0 in 2021 in Oakland - 2.7/3.3 respectively fWAR). All 4 would be helpful in making the Jays have a big 4 in 2023 leaving just 1 slot for Kikuchi/White/kids to share along with a reclamation project. I don't see Stripling coming back (he will be after the biggest deal possible as this is his one shot at it).
  4. Dealing one of Hernandez/Gurriel if it looks like a deal can be made for another starting OF who bats left and plays CF. No idea what for, maybe relief help or as part of a package for that starting CF. Guess we'll see what can be had.
  5. Adjusting backups - Tapia wasn't good as a 4th OF (0.2 fWAR with nightmarish defense), nor was Zimmer (all D no O) or JBJ (see Zimmer but with a tiny bit more O). I don't see Merrifield or Biggio as the answer here. Better to find someone else. Biggio/Espinal/Merrifield more than cover IF backup with Lopez in the wings and more coming. If a catcher is traded then the Jays will just sign one of the many dime a dozen all defense catchers to sit in AAA in case of injury.
  6. The pen will be the usual - sign someone under $10 mil who is decent plus invite a few live arms and see what happens. I expect Pearson to be fighting for a slot in the pen but given a shot to start if healthy. I hope to see Gage given a real shot but to be numbered out due to having too many good arms (one can dream). Romano-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-Richards-Pop I see as locks with everyone else fighting for that 8th slot (White likely getting it as the Stripling long man/6th starter replacement). I expect Phelps to retire.
If we end up with Kiermaier in CF, and no addition to the rotation or pen then we know Rogers cheaped out but I figure with nearly a million viewers per game over 162 games plus the brief playoff boost they should see the value in investing further in this team.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#423743) #
Here's a related question. What position ought Bo Bichette play in 2023?

I don't have a firm opinion on the question. I think that he's below average defensively at shortstop, but the radical positioning adjustments have not helped him.

For what it's worth, the 2020-2023 metrics which cover effectively a little less than three years of data have him at -9 to-20 runs above average, I'd take a mid-point which results in -5 runs per year. His 2022 numbers were terrible but I don't buy that he was significantly worse this year than previously- and the Statcast data tends to support that.

I wish that I had more confidence in Atkins' ability to make difficult decisions with a high element of risk and in Rogers' willingness to see the benefits that flow from increased spending at this time.

Nigel - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#423744) #
Oh I don't have a defeatist attitude or that nothing can be done. I just don't see that Hernandez is any longer the trade chit to work with. I agree that simply running this team back without attempting to fix some of the lineup imbalance and pitching would be a mistake. I'd move on from Gurriel (or make him the 4th OF). I'd get on with moving on from "Springer CF" this offseason. I'd work hard on bringing in two real swing and miss relievers. I just think that you have to be realistic about who is a real asset (that's movable - ie as valuable as Manoah is, you just couldn't move him given the team's need for pitching) on the roster. Today, I see exactly 5 assets that would bring actual value in return (any of the three C's, Bo and Vladdy). That's your currency for doing something big. There are alternatives to doing something big like signing a LHH CF like Kiermaier.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#423745) #
Magpie's allusion to the 28-5 game in relation to pulling Gausman was on my mind at the time but from a different angle (surprise!).

If I were the manager in the 28-5 game, I would have told Gausman when I pulled him after 4 innings that the "win" means nothing but that I had confidence in him for the situations that mattered (like an 8-1 lead in the second game of a 3 game series where I had used the bullpen extensively in Game 1). And I would give him the benefit of the doubt in those situations.

I really don't like the message that was delivered by the approach to the two situations.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#423746) #
Well, as best as I can tell, here's a list of pitchers with one year of control left.

Yu Darvish
Blake Snell
Julio Urias
Luis Severino
Carlos Rodon
Miles Mikolas
Jordan Montgomery
Jack Flaherty
Frankie Montas
Jordan Lyles
Lucas Giolito
Tyler Mahle
Kenta Maeda
Brad Keller
Drew Smyly
Alex Wood

You could reasonably expect teams to decline their options on Lance Lynn and Charlie Morton.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#423747) #
Cool. And if you attach a prospect, you can open up that pool to even more pitchers with more control. Or just take Alex Wood and get back a prospect. There's lots out there if you're actually looking, instead of thinking that the team you built is good enough but just needs to play better.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#423748) #
The team is definitely not good enough, as I said the other day, but they might be better off just chasing one of this year's free agent pitchers. Which would include:

Jameson Taillon
Corey Kluber
Nathan Eovaldi
Michael Wacha
Rich Hill
Michael Fulmer
Aaron Sanchez!
Zack Greinke
Martin Perez
Kyle Gibson
Noah Syndergaard
Adam Wainwright
Wade Miley
Tyler Anderson
Andrew Heaney
Mike Clevinger
Sean Manaea
Zack Davies
Chad Kuhl
Jose Urena

If Carlos Rodon opts out of $22 million next year, add him to the list. Tajuan Walker has a player option for $6 million, and I would expect him to decline it and test the market. At least half of them are even less interesting than Alex Wood, but I think there's better hunting there, if Rogers gives them the money.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#423749) #
de Grom is under contract next year. The Mets have a $32.5 million club option for 2024.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#423750) #
I know de Grom said he was planning to opt out, but after making 11 starts this year and 15 last year, he has to be reconsidering.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#423751) #
There is zero chance Rogers will give them the money to add the 2 SP they need. One will have to come via trade.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#423752) #
One will have to come via trade.

I think that's right, and of course you don't want to weaken the team elsewhere while you're at it. Giving up two nickels for a dime doesn't really get you anywhere.

So while I like John's idea of talking to Arizona about their excess of LH outfielders who can hit and run - gosh, what a concept - they're not going to be very interested in Gurriel or Hernandez. I assume you'd have to talk about Moreno, or Kirk, or Espinal. Someone young, with years of control(!), who can fill a key position for them.

And then you can trade one of your outfielders for a pitcher, I suppose. Hernandez for Giolito, something like that. Add prospects, to either transaction, as required?
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#423753) #
And then chase after Jameson Taillon or Michael Wacha in free agency because you might as well weaken a division rival while you're at it.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#423754) #
I assume that any meaningful trade with the Jays is going to start with teams asking for Kirk, Moreno, Tiedemann, maybe Bo or Jansen in a few cases. Gurriel, Hernandez, and maybe some guys like Barger or Orelvis could be parts, but likely not enough to move the dial on their own. (Anyone asking for Manoah gets hung up on and put on a Block list.)
uglyone - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#423755) #
Just stopped in to give my moral support to 92-93 in this argument.
Mike Green - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#423756) #
When I said that the club needs 3 pitchers, I meant that they need to acknowledge that the high minors depth is just not there. They were actually pretty healthy in the rotation this year- other teams had it worse. This doesn't mean that all 3 pitchers need to go into the major league rotation. One of the pitchers would probably cost a lot of money, one would probably come by trade and one would probably come by bottom-feeding.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#423758) #
I keep score on myself with my suggestions made on da box or sometimes I don't make the suggestion in writing.

In 2019 Pearson was having a good minor league season as was C Mize. 2 other young pitchers were M Kopeck and F Whitley. All great prospects. My bet with myself was that only 2 would succeed. Kopeck had a good 2022 but is injured again. Mize had a good 2021 and then was injured. Pearson injured and Whitley also injured. None has developed into a stud. This has shocked me. " Young pitchers will break your heart" some bauxite keeps reminding me.

I now wonder what the rehab story is on Sixto Sanchez. Miami has a lot of young pitchers but many are injured. They may believe that their window is opening. But I don't know how/if the Jays would take advantage. Jays/Miami like trading with each other it seems.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#423759) #
In the dream in technocolor mode - you have Pearson & Merryweather both coming back strong in 2023, some kids in the minors also finding their mojo and jumping into the rotation by May (Sem Robberse, Hayden Juenger, Ricky Tiedemann, Trent Palmer all candidates as are others). Yosver Zulueta, Pearson, Merryweather, others becoming the power arm in the pen we need. Orelvis Martinez figuring out where the strike zone is and becoming the star prospect he was before last year (funny, a 20 year old in AA at SS hitting 30 HR dropped his stardom, a 40-140 BB-SO ratio will do that as will a 203 Avg). Addison Barger keeps hitting and makes the team feel safe to let Chapman leave as a free agent. Etc.

There is hope here. The Jays did win 92 after all, which isn't nothing (only 5 times have the Jays done better). I see baseball as 2 seasons, the one the Jays did excellent in (162 games) the other not so much (2 games). I hate how quick round 1 is - 3 games is pretty much meaningless - the worst team in history (1899 Cleveland Spiders) won 2 in a row once and took 2 of 3 in one stretch from the Boston Beaneaters (a 95-57 team that year). So yeah, crap happens (won June 29th, lost on the 30th, won on July 1st 7-2, 1-3, 10-9 then lost their next game 14-0 to start a 15 game losing streak - there is a reason they were 20-134).

Really, I think we all are just in shell shock over that final game where EVERYTHING went wrong that could. If Bass had pitched like he had all year, if Romano closed it out, if JBJ was in CF instead of Springer in the 8th, if Tapia caught anything hit his way, if Vlad came up with a big hit or two, if if if. So much that could've changed it, just like in 1985 when the Jays lost game 7 after being up 3-1, or 1987 when they just needed a win or 2 in the final 7, or 1991 when Gaston used Candiotti twice instead of Guzman (rookie, but was pitching great) in the playoffs, and I'm sure I could go on and on. It isn't a failing of Schneider or any one player, it is just what happens sometimes. 2 games are not a measure of anything in baseball. Ask Verlander (4 IP 6 R) or Scherzer (4 2/3 IP 7 R) or Goldschmidt (0-7 over his 2 games after a 180 OPS+ season). I sure wouldn't complain if the Jays got any of those guys here for 2023 - they just had a bad game or 2 at a bad time.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#423760) #
bpoz - wonder if Miami could use 'veteran leadership'? Their OF was ugly - their OF had the worst sOPS+ in MLB at 77 (next worst was an 80 for Detroit). Gurriel would fit in with the ex-Cuban crowd down there, and has a cheap year left on his contract. They have a 'wow' at 2B in Jazz Chisholm Jr. (just played 60 games, none from July on) who had a 139 OPS+ over just 60 games, getting 2.5 WAR for that and is entering his age 25 season. I don't see them wanting to trade him but they could use a catcher (any of our 3) and an OF (Gurriel or Hernandez is fine). Hard to imagine that happening but who knows? I know no one saw Alomar coming here before he did and I'd love to see another young star 2B come here to lock up the IF.
Dewey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#423762) #
if JBJ was in CF instead of Springer in the 8th,

In all the replays Iíve seen of the Bichette/Springer collision, it looks to me that Springer was just about to catch the ball when Bichette slammed into him. Bo was the culprit. I wouldnít like to see this notion of Springer as the source of the fiasco harden into a received fact on Da Box.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#423763) #
In all the replays Iíve seen of the Bichette/Springer collision, it looks to me that Springer was just about to catch the ball when Bichette slammed into him

Nah. You can see it much better from a side camera angle. It missed Bichette's glove by - literally - inches. Springer was already in his dive but still about five or six feet away. I don't think it was anyone's fault. The infielder is supposed to go after the ball until an outfielder calls him off. Guerrero, who was in the neighbourhood of second base, said he didn't hear anything and Springer never did get close enough to call the infielder off. It was just One of Those Things.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#423764) #
Miami getting to 80 or 81 wins would maybe satisfy some fans. If they have any. They have to be cheap/creative. They are a team that builds a 3 year window I think. Oakland was tied for the 2nd best record in 2020. In 2021 they won 86 games followed by 60 wins in 2022 which is 102 losses.

If/when this happens to the Jays I think Shapiro gets fired. He probably knows this. A 97 win season with playoff success gets how much revenue for TB, Miami and Oakland? AND how much revenue for the Jays, NYY, NYM, LAD, Boston, Philadelphia?

2019 was a disaster for the Jays. Financially too I presume. After that was good because of 2 playoff teams. I assume there is still some space for bigger Jays revenues if they have another 90+ win season and make the playoffs. Going far into the playoffs would also be profitable.

92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#423765) #
I was at the game sitting behind home plate and saw the awful jump Springer got on the ball, so the accepted fact for me will always blame Springer for that play. If he gets a better read he calls for the ball and none of it happens. Perhaps if they werenít addicted to carrying relievers they wouldíve had a guy in CF capable of making that play. Not Georgeís fault they blew an 8-1 lead though, much of that lands on Schneider.
Dewey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#423766) #
Weird. I can see Springer in the air with his glove almost reaching the ball when heís hit. I thought he would catch it. But I havenít seen side camera views of the incident, and I donít recall him getting a bad jump on it. As Marshall McLuhan used to say, believing is seeing.

Anyone have recommended sites to see the side camera views?
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#423767) #
Perhaps if they werenít addicted to carrying relievers they wouldíve had a guy in CF capable of making that play.

There was one sitting on the bench. I assume he was still on the bench because Springer was leading off the bottom of the inning.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#423768) #
Anyone have recommended sites to see the side camera views?

Right here! I just added it to the main story. It's a screencap I took from YouTube.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#423769) #
A baseball field is so big, and the cameras are so far away, that there's a real foreshortening in all those straight-on shots. The hitter and the pitcher look so much closer to one another from the usual camera angle than they really are. You got the same kind of effect here.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#423770) #
If getting Springer that last AB up 8-1 was so important he couldíve slid over to RF for the inning. It seems many people donít realize that Merrifield was replaced by Tapia for defense, not because of injury.
Dewey - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#423771) #
O.K., many thanks, Magpie. I hadnít seen that one. Youíre right about the foreshortening in the frontal shots. But could Springerís leap have covered the distance between him and the ball before it hit the ground? Looks to be about 6 or 7 feet. I really donít know. Baseball.
Kasi - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#423772) #
I think Springer by that pic has started to slow a bit because he knew a collision was imminent. But I still think Bo was in a better spot to catch it. I do wonder if Bradley could have caught it instead.
Eephus - Wednesday, October 12 2022 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#423773) #
This is very much a cop-out butÖ I have not rewatched that play since it was broadcast live. It was way too much for me to witness in the damn moment it happened, never mind trying to analyze it since.

Based upon my memory of the moment, I donít blame either Bichette or Springer (especially George, despite his split second weak initial jump) for the outcome. It isÖ. frankly just one of my least favourite baseball things Iíve ever witnessed and this is the (hopefully please) last time Iíll ever feel compelled to comment upon it.

Or second last time. I agree that JBJ likely catches it without difficulty. Thatís a whole other conversation of course.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#423774) #
92-93, Tapia was brought in because, with Ray out of the game Seattle only had RH options coming out of the pen. They wanted that platoon advantage in addition to having someone with more experience in left.
92-93 - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#423775) #
Looking for a platoon advantage that's two+ innings away in an 8-1 game is terrible managing. If Bradley wasn't a better option than Tapia there then the Jays made a mistake with their WC roster.
Rich - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#423778) #
If Jansen and Teo/Gurriel could be packaged for a CF who hits left I'm all for it.
Bo should be at second and Espy at short but I know that will not happen.
As mentioned, a 1 year Matz-esque deal for a starter plus a FA reliever with power stuff.
Magpie - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#423779) #
Looking for a platoon advantage that's two+ innings away in an 8-1 game is terrible managing.

I don't think that's what Schneider was doing either. I think he just didn't feel a great sense of urgency. It was 8-1. He gave Merrifield the rest of the day off after getting plunked. He had Bradley to replace Springer later on. No sense of urgency, not with a seven run lead.

I don't think it mattered anyway. I don't think either Merrifield or Bradley catch the Raleigh single or the Suarez double if they were standing where Tapia was when those balls were hit. But I think I might have caught the Suarez double if I'd been standing in normal LF position with a RH power hitter at the plate, and I can't even run for the bus.

But I agree that Bradley had a much better chance to make a play on Crawford's fateful double. That kind of ball - hitter hits it in the air straight at you - is very difficult to read. It could be a bloop in front of you, it could be a blast over your head. Bradley isn't nearly as fast as Springer, but he reads the ball off the bat about as well as anyone can.
bpoz - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#423781) #
They say "No lead is safe in Fenway". I am going to follow that philosophy in the regular season and the playoffs.

Get 1 out and you win. Right Bill Buckner? A Boston game.
Waveburner - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#423782) #
"Perhaps if they werenít addicted to carrying relievers"

By 'they' I assume you are referring to all 30 MLB clubs being addicted? Or you do you think the Jays are unique in how many pitchers they carry?
92-93 - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#423783) #
Or we could just look at the Jays' wild card opponent. They carried 12 pitchers and the Jays carried 13, 3 of which didn't appear. It sure would've been nice having Zimmer around.
Michael - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#423785) #
Yeah, I was going to say Zimmer is the answer to the OF problems with the regular season roster. I think I would have had him on the roster for the playoffs for pinch run and defensive replacement (certainly not to start any games), but Jays decided not to at least for the first round so he wasn't available when it would have been obvious to bring him in.
jerjapan - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#423788) #
The prob with our FO is aiming too low in upgrades due to, I think, this idea that relievers grow on trees. Shake a tree, Matt gage fell out.

Nobody will complain about too many relievers if we upgrade the front of the pen and push our collection of weirdo middle relievers down the depth chart or back to buffalo
scottt - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#423789) #
Many games were lost due the bullpen over the last  years, so Atkins traded to get a lot of controllable relievers without options. No issue there. The pen is fine for now. They have a large number of guys suitable for the pen: Saucedo, Pearson, Hatch, Griffin, Zulueta, Juenger, Gage, Merryweather, Adrian Hernandez, etc...

Thornton could be stretched as a starter again, unlike White he has options.

The guys who did poorly in the playoffs: Manoah, Romano, Guerrero, Mayza, Bass need to get another shot at it.

Teoscar and Chapman are guys you keep and QO.
Springer will have to move to a corner and Chapman won't be worth the money, hopefully one of Orelvis Martinez or Addison Barger can take over at 3B for 2 or 3 years at the minimum salary.

Tapia played at replacement level, but in a weird way. He was running the bases well and getting big hits. Just not walking enough. Not really worth 5M but at the same time, they really need a left bat in the lineup, and it has to be a power left bat. (Kiermaier delivered 1.1 bWAR, he's going to be 33 and I hate his cheating guts, so not a fit at all.)

Jansen can be replaced by Moreno for a small saving. I'd still like to see a left power bat at DH.
(Ironically, the biggest hit in that last game came from Santana who is exactly that.)

An established pitcher to replace Stripling seems like a must.
I don't think he's worth a QO.

John Northey - Thursday, October 13 2022 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#423792) #
There are questions about utility - how do you set up the team to maximize value from each player? Lets look position by position with wRC+/fWAR for the position as a whole with ML rank for fWAR in brackets. Pitchers are xFIP/fWAR (rank)

C: 127/7.3 (1) Kirk/Jansen/Moreno - one has to go most likely, or you need to have Moreno playing at LF/3B instead, with the odd game behind the plate? Have him work out in CF and see if he can cover that. Kirk at DH with Jansen there too a lot.
1B: 121/4.2 (4) Vlad/Biggio/Gurriel is the mix used by the Jays, Vlad is the star who also DH's.
2B: 101/4.6 (8) Espinal/Merrifield/Biggio - all 3 are solid, Espinal & Merrifield have been All-Stars while Biggio is the only LH in the group. All 3 cover many other positions. So a good mix, all solid on defense, all decent on offense (wRC+ of 99/88[119 as a Jay]/97 respectively).
3B: 117/4.1 (12) Chapman - nuff said.
SS: 131/4.6 (7) Bo - his defense can be head shaking but the overall package is amazing.
LF: 103/1.2 (22) Gurriel - see Bo but at a much lower level - decent offense, head shaking defense but can carry the team for a month each year.
CF: 102/4.2 (8) Springer - needs a caddy for about half the games as his body just can't be out there full time anymore.
RF: 119/2.6 (11) Hernandez - very solid player, but seems to take naps on defense at times, does amazing plays at other times.
DH: 128/8.1 (1) Kirk/Springer/Vlad - all share it as needed to keep them fresh and keep their bats in the lineup. Signing a new guy to be the DH would hurt the value all 3 give the Jays.
SP: 3.80/14.0 (8) - Manoah/Gausman/Berrios locks, then a lot of ??? Kikuchi-White-list of not ready kids. Ryu might be back for September but only a fool would count on him.
RP: 3.89/3.0 (16) - Romano-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-Pop-etc. Adding a live arm would be nice, but we might get lucky with Pearson as I have to figure the Jays have given up on him being a starter at this point.

So surprisingly the Jays by fWAR is top half (15+) at most positions. Obvious weaknesses are LF and RP. Other non-top 10's are 3B/RF. The weakest vs the rest of the majors is LF. Who knew? Safe to say Tapia hurt it, but Gurriel wasn't impressive either. Moreno working out at 3B/LF/CF could help get Gurriel out of the lineup, and signing a new CF helps by shifting Springer to RF and Hernandez to LF while Gurriel moves to Tapia's role or is traded. The pen we all knew needs help (especially since we all think Phelps is probably done now - wonder if he'd have done better in the 8th inning than Bass?) Replacing Ryu/Stripling for the #4 slot is also needed but with a guy able to be a 1/2 or 2/3 at worst. We have LOTS of 5's (Kikuchi-White-Thornton-minor leaguers)

Bottom line - to maximize the value of this roster you trade a catcher or move Moreno to a LF/3B/C/2B role where he gets in the lineup somewhere daily. Keep that effective DH rotation going. Get a new CF to do the Springer to RF Hernandez to LF shifts and get Gurriel out of the lineup and onto the bench in Tapia's role. The 3 headed 2B should be fine with the hot hand playing while the other 2 are backups. Rotation needs 1 more top arm by any means necessary, also getting a top arm or 2 for the pen should be a priority as a setup for Romano and to close on days he needs rest (aka the Ward role) - this could be filled with luck by Pearson but I damn well hope the Jays aren't counting on that happening.
bpoz - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#423797) #
Good sensible analysis by scottt and John N.

L Castillo has pitched V well/well in his 2 playoff games. We all know that Manoah, Scherzer and Verlander underperformed. Nobody thinks that they are toast. Game 2 had enough odd things happen for me to feel that luck/fate worked for Seattle and against the Jays. The Cubs won their WS in extras I believe which is worse luck IMO.

Moves next year for TB is probably not as concerning as for ST Louis and NYM.

Jays are basically set for next year but will try to improve something. Atkins did not commit himself to anything when he spoke after the Jays season ended which is good. Schneider is good, the team is good and extended contracts are being worked on. I always prefer that he not say anything. Last year he worked fast getting Gausman and extending Berrios. After the lockout he did well in getting Chapman and doing a 2 year deal.

bpoz - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#423800) #
I generally don't believe the trade rumors because most are generated by the media and player agents. However Verlander said that the Jays made a good offer. If we had got Verlander then we probably don't sign Kikuchi. If there was an opt out then Verlander exercises it IMO. The other rumor was trading for J Ramirez. If successful the Jays probably extend him and don't get Chapman.

Based on what I said above, it means that the Jays try to get SPs this off season because no Verlander, Stripling and Kikuchi. It also means that Ryu, Springer, Gausman, Berrios and Ramirez are all long term expensive commitments, except for Ryu. The 2022 payroll would have been higher obviously. So now I think there is a strong possibility for an expensive FA acquisition for 2023 because of no Verlander and Ramirez. We will see.

dalimon5 - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#423801) #
Go get Jazz Chisholm. Trade from Kirk, Espinal, and Orelvis. Other option is to trade Vlad or Bo with Kirk to get Chisholm and Alcantara.
bpoz - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#423802) #
Alcantara's contract may be team friendly. I would be happy to have him.
dalimon5 - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#423803) #
Heís probably untouchable unless you pony up a Vlad or Bichette.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#423813) #
Texas Shed long-term salary: Seager, Dunning (-28 total value) for Ryu, Kikuchi, Olrevis Martinez (-23.6 Total Value) + 6M 2023 Salary
Catcher for Outfielder Swap: Alek Thomas (29.6 Future Value) for Danny Jansen, Santiago Espinal (31.6 Future Value) - 4M 2023 Salary
Blue Jays Shed More Salary: Teoscar Hernandez for Diego Castillo -11 M 2023 Salary
Sign Ace: Carlos Rodon 5 years/118 M, slightly backloaded + 21 M 2023 Salary
Sign Vetran OF: Will Myers 1 their 1 M

C: Moreno
1B: Vlad
2B: Bo
SS: Seager (LHH)
3B: Chapman
LF: Gurriel
CF: Thomas (LHH)
RF: Springer
DH: Kirk

UTIL: Merrifield
UTIL: Lopez
2B/3B: Biggio (LHH)
1B/OF: Myers



All for 195 M
dalimon5 - Friday, October 14 2022 @ 10:56 PM EDT (#423814) #
Texas trading Corey Seager is akin to us trading Kevin Gausman.
Magpie - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 02:21 AM EDT (#423816) #
Yeah, I think Chris Young is planning to build around Seager and Semien. He's more likely to be adding more salary this winter, and a certain RH starter working for Toronto is probably on his list.

I also can't see Arizona, where they are on their development curve, settling for the catcher who's a free agent in two years. They'd want Kirk or Moreno.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 05:18 AM EDT (#423817) #
Texas lost 90 games and fired their manager, I would think its closer to when the Jays traded out of the Vernon Wells contract.

Arizona's GM Mike Hazen:

ďTake a left-handed hitting outfielder and turn him into a right-handed hitting slugger, yeah, I can see that puzzle coming together,Ē Hazen said (via Piecoro). ďItís not going to be taking one of those guys and trading them for prospects in that type of way.Ē
Magpie - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 06:04 AM EDT (#423818) #
The Jays traded Wells four years into his big contract, not after the first year. I think Texas is much better than a 68-94 team, and I would think Young realizes it as well. They went 15-35 in one-run games, which is almost impossible. They're much closer to being a .500 team in terms of quality.

This is great news for the new manager. They will bounce back from that almost automatically, and the new manager will look like the hero who made it happen.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#423819) #
The eternal need is a Jim Clancy type starter.
dalimon5 - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 08:39 AM EDT (#423820) #
There are also reports that Bruce Bochy is meeting Chris Young to manage the Rangers, so that pretty much says they want to compete.
bpoz - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#423821) #
Near the end of Nov we will know the FAs in the league. Who has managers and who is looking. Someone will calculate approximate payrolls. There will be data and a lot of speculation will start about player acquisitions. Most will be fake but some will be sensible.

As of right now I strongly speculate that Oakland is still rebuilding so they will tweak their lineup and try to get young. The next step is to get their young players playing time. They will likely lose many games in that step. Minnesota may be the only other team which may try a rebuild, but probably not because they are in a weak division. Their moves will dictate their intention. By signing Donaldson a few years ago they have proved that spending money is a part of their plan. LAA, Texas, Detroit and KC want to win next year even if they are not ready. They have cleaned out FO failures.

The NL is where there are many rebuilding teams. Colorado, Cincinnati, Washington and Pittsburg are definitely still rebuilding. I am not sure about the Cubs.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#423822) #
BA Breakout Prospects:

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays

No pitcher in 2022 experienced the sort of meteoric rise of Tiedemann. A 2021 third-round pick out of Golden West (Calif.) JC, Tiedemann experienced a velocity jump almost immediately after signing and those velocity gains carried forward into this season. Assigned to Low-A Dunedin out of camp, Tiedemann saw a promotion to High-A Vancouver by late May and subsequently Double-A by early August after laying waste to both levels of Class A. His difficult angle from the left side combined with the plus power and movement on his pitches proved to be too much for MiLB hitters in 2022. His fastball sits 94-96 mph, touching 97, and he pairs it with a sweepy slider in the low 80s and a devastating changeup with tumble and heavy arm-side run. Tiedemann utilized his premium stuff to strike out 117 batters over 78.2 innings, posting an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.86. Tiedemann has the look of a front-of-the-rotation anchor for years to come.

Yosver Zulueta, RHP, Blue Jays

The righthanderís professional career got off to the rockiest of starts as Zulueta underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after signing with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in 2019. He made his professional debut with Low-A Dunedin on May 5, 2021, but disaster struck as he tore his ACL covering the first base bag against the first batter he faced. He returned to Low-A Dunedin nearly a year to the day of his injury, and began an ascent up the Blue Jays minor league system that concluded with a stint in Triple-A Buffaloís bullpen. While Zulueta battled command woes throughout the season, he flashed promising upside and a powerful pitch mix. Zuluetaís fastball and slider combination can be deadly. His four-seamer sits 96-97 mph, touching 101 mph at peak, with heavy arm-side run. His slider is the best pitch in his arsenal, a mid-80s sweeper with some vertical depth. He mixes in a mid-to-high-80s changeup that will flash above-average but is plagued by inconsistent command and a two-plane curveball in the 79-81 mph range that is a change-of-pace pitch. Itís a deep, powerful arsenal with a chance for three above-average or better pitches. After several years on the shelf, Zulueta showed tremendous upside in a variety of roles in his first healthy professional season.

bpoz - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#423823) #
Just watched a video of Pearson's debut in 2020 against Washington. FB, CU, SL and CH. All quite good. He needs to be healthy. His injuries were weird not really affecting his arm in many cases.

He is one of many pitchers that are ready. He and Kay could contribute if healthy.
SK in NJ - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#423825) #
I don't expect big changes. As others have said, barring a trade that completely changes the core of the team (ex. trading Vlad or Bo), there's not much in the way of expendable trade assets with high value other than the catchers. Then when you look at the payroll situation, it's hard to envision this team adding another big free agent pickup unless Rogers is ready to blast through $200m. Maybe they make a smaller move like trading Hernandez/Gurriel, but I can't imagine that's going to get a great return.

The move/non-move that is going to define the off-season is how the FO handles the catching situation. It's the one area of surplus where they should in theory be able to use it effectively in a trade. They could also keep all three and use Moreno as a super utility player. They have to make a decision eventually as Jansen only has two years of control left so he loses value the longer they wait.

The one thing I am absolutely convinced they should do is turn Pearson into a short reliever. Close the book on starting and bulk innings. Tell him to let loose in one inning appearances. The Jays badly need velocity at the back end of their bullpen, and Pearson's starting days should be over. Seems like a no brainer. Other than that, I expect Kikuchi to get another chance to start (have no choice given his contract) and they'll target one starter in free agency or trade (or re-sign Stripling). Ideally they get two starters and have Kikuchi/White as the depth starters, but that will depend on payroll flexibility and opportunity.
John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#423831) #
My gut says the Jays touch $200 million for payroll next year - a reward to fans for filling the stadium (and TV ratings) and to set up another strong year. Jays were 11th last year with a net of $190 for payroll tax purposes. So adding $10 mil isn't much. Hopefully they will go higher - $232 is where you get hit with luxury tax so they won't go that high for sure. I could picture $210 going into the season with flexibility to go to $220 if needed mid-season.

Cot's has locked in $119.3 mil for 2023 (Springer, Gausman, Ryu the $20m club, Kikcuhi, Chapman, Berrios in the $10's, $5's for Gurriel & Garcia. Add in Bass ($3 mil option) and Merrifield ($10.5) to get to $132.8. Big additions are 3rd year arbitration - Hernandez, Tapai, Cimber; 2nd year: Vlad, Jansen, Biggio, Zimmer, Mayza, Richards; 1st year: Thornton, Romano, Bichette. Hernandez & Vlad will be over $10 but under $20, the rest sub $10 this year each. So lets say $30 for Vlad/Hernandez, $30 for the rest, net to $192.8 then. So I see a range of $7-17 mil available unless they unload someone. Merrifield they might just to save that $10 mil, Biggio could be traded as he is getting expensive for a backup. Zimmer certainly will be released. Hernandez and Gurriel - I only see one of them being here on opening day. A trade has to happen, ideally for someone young who is cheap.
Shoeless Joe - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#423835) #
I think there are opportunities where the Jays take on a bad value contract with more length and use Ryu's 1 year dead money to create some value.
John Northey - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#423839) #
Always interesting - my dead contract for yours. Ryu is valued at -18.7, Kikuchi -18.8, Berrios -50.2 (yeah, his year sucked).

Other bad ones (-10 or worse) (via Trade Simulator - not perfect but a way to filter down to the worst - note: they really hate long term deals) ...
  • Angels: Rendon -132.3 & 3 others who are better than -10 but still negative
  • Atlanta: Ozuna -36.3, Olson -23.8, 5 more negatives
  • Brewers: Yelich -126.4, 2 very slight negatives
  • Cardinals: Matz -12.4, 2 more negatives
  • Cubs: Suzuki -21.1, Stroman -11.2, Hendricks -10.2, 2 more negatives
  • Diamondbacks: Marte -36.1, Bumgarner -33.3, 5 more negatives.
  • Dodgers: Betts -44.6, 3 more negatives.
  • Giants: La Stella -11.5, 5 more negatives.
  • Mariners: Ray -49.6, White -20, Gonzales -14.5
  • Marlins: Garcia -33, Soler -20.9, 2 more slight negatives
  • Mets: Scherzer -29.2, McCann -18.1, 6 more negatives
  • Nationals: Strasburg -138.4, Corbin -53.7
  • Phillies: Castellanos -63.7, 3 more negatives
  • Rangers: Seager -46.7, Semien -26.1, 3 more negatives
  • Red Sox: Story -37.4, Sale -27.4, 3 more negatives
  • Reds: Votto -30.3, Moustakas -22, 1 more slight negative
  • Rockies: Bryant -109.5, Freeland -31.5, Blackmon -13.7, Diaz -11.5, Grichuk -5
  • Royals: Perez -37.4, Dozier -17, 2 more slight negatives
  • Tigers: Cabrera -32, Baez -31.5, Rodriguez -29.9
  • White Sox: Moncada -12.8, Grandal -12.3, Garcia -10.1, 6 more negatives
  • Yankees: Stanton -115.9, Cole -89.6, LeMahieu -21.3, Hicks -20.6, Donaldson -19.2, 4 more.
  • all others had no -10's or worse.
So that is a list of pretty much everyone teams are desperate to get rid of, but some are good (Cole, LeMahieu for example) and wouldn't be traded, others are 100% useless to their clubs (Rendon - 3 years in LA 157 games 115 OPS+ for $90 mil with $140 mil still to be paid - no one is taking that on). The Diamondbacks are the one I'm most curious about given their depth in CF with LH hitters. Marte is a switch hitting 2B 106 OPS+ in 2022 at age 28 but signed for 5 more years plus option for a 6th ($73 mil total owed), clearly this system doesn't think he is worth it but I suspect Arizona does. Bumgarner is a much more interesting one - just an 82 ERA+ last year over 30 starts 158 2/3 IP - just 4 short starts (sub 5 IP), just 3 times gave up more than 5 runs - very much a modern Jim Clancy type - he goes out, does his job, leaves. Nothing spectacular, just a good #4/5 guy being paid like a #1 ($37 mil over the next 2 years). He could be useful, and they might take Ryu's contract for him (saves them $17 mil over 2 years). Makes a Carroll-Bumgarner for Ryu-Moreno deal almost a perfect match (44.5 to 42.7). Would cover our CF/4th starter situations and cover their catcher/budget issues. Could include some minor league starter who isn't a star prospect to help settle it (Jays giving up 2 points less here).
Magpie - Saturday, October 15 2022 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#423840) #
Merrifield's contract was restructured. It's no longer an option for 2023 at 10.5 million; instead it's a guaranteed 6.5 million.
Paul D - Sunday, October 16 2022 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#423854) #
I agree completely SK, I hope Pearson leaves spring training as the 8th inning guy
bpoz - Sunday, October 16 2022 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#423855) #
I agree with Dez about trading for prospects.

In the Berrios trade we gave up 2 prospects that were in AA. A Martin has not prospered but SWR had a good 2022 in the minors and got promoted.

My hope is that they trade D Jansen. I don't think we get as good a package as Martin and SWR for him.

bpoz - Sunday, October 16 2022 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#423865) #
The farm produced 2 good players for the 2022 team.

Moreno missed ST so he could not compete for a job. When he was ready Jansen & Kirk were doing too well to lose out to him. He will have a job somewhere in the ML next year.

Max Castillo was the other player. He did well enough to trade for a nice piece. Obviously he was not untouchable. He should have a job in KC next year.

I would consider Hatch, Kay, Merriweather and Pearson contributors from the farm if they had contributed. I still label them 2023 potential contributors from the farm. I think they all have options.

There are other potential contributors like Barger & Juenger that are close. So we have quantity. But if 2019 gave us Vlad, Bo and others. 2020 Kirk & 2021 Manoah then 2023 can also give us 1-3.

scottt - Sunday, October 16 2022 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#423875) #
I don't see this front office involved with bad contracts.
That's not what contenders do.

scottt - Sunday, October 16 2022 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#423876) #
Zulueta sounds a lot like Kikuchi. Excellent stuff, poor control.
He's R5 eligible.

Hagen Danner has been a waste of a roster spot.
He's pitched  2 innings in the AFL. 0H, 0BB, 0K, seems appropriate.

John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#423880) #
Right now Berrios looks like a bad contract, the Dodgers (an excellent team) had the nightmare of Trevor Bauer to deal with, but luckily for them it was a short term deal which cost them approximately $70 million for a handful of games and is over now (not sure if Bauer's appeal is still going, if he wins then it costs the Dodgers another $32 mil). The number of bad contracts the Yankees have had over the years is quite high. Now, for smaller teams it is much harder to absorb a bad deal. Berrios the Jays can live with, same with the final 2 years of Ryu's deal.
John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#423881) #
An interesting new free agent - Koudai Sengal from Japan - most years he has done both regular season and winter ball in Japan. Overall a 2.42 ERA over 1340 IP with 0.6 HR/9, 3.4 BB/9 10.0 K/9. He had a 1.89 ERA last year over 23 games 148 IP with 3.0 BB/9 vs 9.7 K/9. Wonder what he wants? He is entering his age 30 season and is desperate to play in MLB. Has no compensation attached. Do the Jays roll the dice on him being a good #4/5 option?

In 2019 this was written about him "Senga typically averaged around 92 MPH on his heater during his previous four years as staff ace of the Hawks, but has seen his average fastball velocity jump to around 95-96 MPH in 2019, and will touch 98 and 99 routinely in starts. Heís still adjusting to his newfound velocity, and will either need to improve his ability to hit the corners or start attacking the zone more to blow hitters away with his premium velocity and plus spin.

His main out pitch is a devastating forkball splitter, which has plus plus depth due to Sengaís innate ability to neutralize spin with how he grips the ball. Sengaís been working on a cutter in recent years, which has jumped up in velocity as well. It sits in the high 80s with average bite, but plays up by keeping hitters off his fastball and vice versa. His fourth pitch is an average slider with inconsistent shape and location that flashes above average.

Senga has top of the rotation upside, and would easily earn a nine-figure deal if he were posted this offseason."

Sounds very interesting. A more recent article indicating he is seen as part of the 2nd tier by many - not a Verlander level, but more like Xander Bogarts for what he'll command ($100 mil type deal). The Jays seem hesitant on Japanese league pitchers to me, but who knows? One more ball to toss in the air.
Jonny German - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#423883) #
The tricky part for constructing the pitching staff, besides money, is that the team already has 10 guys who can't be optioned to the minors, plus Manoah and Romano. That's 12 of 13 spots when healthy. You can and should create 2 more spots by saying so long to Trevor Richards and Julian Merryweather, leaving you with 3 spots to be filled. I expect it will go like this:

Spot 1: A quality starter via trade or free agency.

Spot 2: A free agent reliever, probably left-handed. Taylor Rogers? Andrew Chafin?

Spot 3: An optionable reliever - Zach Pop, Nate Pearson, Foster Griffin, Matt Gage, Yosver Zulueta, Hayden Juenger, Adrian Hernandez will all appear here at some point in 2023.
bpoz - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#423884) #
In my mind I was a bit hard on Atkins for not doing enough on pitching acquisition compared to Seattle. Seattle was fantastic!!

We lost Ryu to injury. It happens. Seattle lost nobody.
Good drafts in 2018/19 Logan Gilbert and Kirby. Manoah 2019 for us.
Signed FA Ray. Us Gausman.
C Flexen signed as a cheap "nobody" FA in Dec 2020.
Marco Gonzales nice trade with St Louis July 2017.
Traded for L Castillo Aug 2022 and extended him. We did Berrios in 2021.
We signed Kikuchi.

Seattle has been rebuilding for much longer than the Jays. So more high draft picks. Able to get Marco Gonzales at the 2017 trade deadline. We were worse in 2017 than Seattle. We got Teo at that deadline.

Making the playoffs in 2020 caused expectations for the Jays. 91 & 92 wins over the next 2 seasons fulfilled those expectations.

I will excuse Atkins because we have had 3 good seasons in a row. He made good pitching moves to help all 3 teams at the trade deadlines. This team is young and talented. The farm is still kind of strong. It is the payroll that is close to unhealthy.
John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#423885) #
GTood 3+ year stretches for the Jays...
  • The last 3 years the Jays winning percentages have been 533-562-568 (2 playoffs).
  • 2014-2016 were 512-574-549 (2 playoffs) - forgot 2014 was that good.
  • 2006-2008 was a stretch of 500+ 537-512-531 No playoffs, that last year was painful as expected was a 572 record based on runs for/against. 24-32 in 1 run games with BJ Ryan being a solid closer and Scott Downs having a sub 2 ERA as a setup man - in fact all relievers with 20+ appearances had 100+ ERA+'s that year which should've been good for 1 run results but wasn't. Sigh.
  • 1998-2000 - 543-519-512 Ash's one shot but not close to good enough. 4 games out of a WC in 1998 (if 2 WC would've been in) - that was the last year of Clemens here and the Jays traded away all vets mid-season which improved the team (go figure). If 2 WC existed then who knows how different Jays history would've been - Tim Johnson playoff manager, Clemens might have stayed, Halladay would've seen playoffs first hand in Toronto as a rookie (couldn't have played but would've watched).
  • 1983-1993 - over 500 for 11 years straight, 5 playoffs, 2 WS titles. The ultimate goal for any team. The 1981 strike was the final year the Jays royally sucked, 1982 was their first half decent year followed by all those great years then another strike ended it. This team started its strong run with COVID, will it last 11 years and get 2 titles? I'd love that. But does that mean another deadly pandemic in roughly 2031 to end it?
So in Jays history we had 3 year good stretches plus one 11 year 'wow' (expected to win every year pretty much). Hopefully this is more like the 83-93 stretch than those other ones.
John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#423887) #
Kind of odd how the Jays did get set up twice for a playoff run there - 98-00 and 06-08. If they made either one of our former GM's might have lasted longer (Ash-JPR respectively). Wonder if Davy Johnson had been hired for '98 instead of Tim Johnson if the team might have pulled that one off - he was great at maximizing his teams for a few years.

Ages year 3 of each wave (BR)...
  • 83-93: (1985) hitters: 27.8 pitchers: 28.9 sub 25 - H: 7 P: 3 = 10
  • 98-00: (2000) hitters: 28.2 pitchers: 29.0 sub 25 - H: 5 P: 5 = 10
  • 06-08: (2008) hitters: 31.1 pitchers: 28.5 sub 25 - H: 3 P: 1 = 4
  • 14-16: (2016) hitters: 30.2 pitchers: 30.0 sub 25 - H: 1 P: 2 = 3
  • 20-22: (2022) hitters: 27.1 pitchers: 29.4 sub 25 - H: 5 P: 2 = 7
I used sub 25 as 25-32 is the generally accepted 'prime years' for players so guys younger than that should have some growth left. 1985 had tons of hitters but the whole OF was 25 (Bell-Moseby-Barfield) so didn't count for that. Just Fernandez was sub 25 among everyday guys. 2016's youngest regular was Devon Travis at 25 (sigh), 2008's Adam Lind at 24, 2000 Brad Fullmer at 25 (he seemed older but wasn't). This year had Kirk & Vlad at 23, and Bo at 24 as everyday guys. Plus Manoah in the rotation at 24. That is a big part of why this years team has the youngest hitters of any Jays contender after 3 years (a good sign going forward I figure). Pitching is the 2nd oldest of any though which is not as good - lets hope Tiedemann, Trent Palmer, and Hayden Juenger are for real as the Jays really need some more youth to join Manoah in the rotation. For oddities I just noticed Elvis Luciano was only in his age 22 season this year - weird - still young enough to grow but obviously won't be on a 40 man or rule 5'd this winter.

A good area of hope for 2023 and beyond. Hopefully this is the first Jays team since the glory years to be 500+ for more than 3 straight years.
bpoz - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#423888) #
We all have our way of seeing the Jays and how they should add talent.

I liked that some prospects showed early that they were good. They made the 100 lists and were asked for in trades.

Vlad & Bo come to mind as that type of prospect. They destroyed the minor leagues starting in 2017. AND they received the hype.

Pearson got hype by blowing through the minors in 2019. Dunedin, NH and Buffalo. Then injuries. It happens.

We also had great success with Manoah who made the Top 100 list as a high draft pick. I don't know how many were ahead of him to start 2021.

The category I wanted to mention was this one: The unknowns "that came out of nowhere" Kirk, Moreno and Castillo who all look like they belong. Kirk has proved it.

Barger is one of the "came out of nowhere" drafted 2018 and got 180 ABs that year. Very good start to 2019 then restricted list with no details. Covid 2020. So 2021 and 2022 is when he developed and very fast. I am very excited by him.
John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#423889) #
It'll be interesting to see how things go with the minors and majors in 2023. Jays need to keep the pipeline going or they will be more like the past 3 streaks of 500+ instead of the big one. If that pipeline keeps going then they'll be fine. The 83-93 stretch, after the first 3, in '86 saw Fred McGriff get his first ML PA's (5 of them), Mark Eichhorn deserved the ROY, John Cerutti moved into the rotation, they tried to mix in Joe Johnson (flop), Duane Ward was still a starter and got his butt kicked. '87 saw McGriff take over everyday at DH with Fielder sharing time, Gruber took over at 3B, David Wells broken in, Ward moved to the pen. In '88 Lee took over at 2B, Borders broken in, bizarre attempt to put in Sil Campusano infamously, Stottlemyre into the rotation (along with Jeff Musselman 123 ERA+ but had just shy of 70 IP in the majors after that). '89 saw Felix take over in RF, Liriano at 2B (he and Lee kept flip flopping there). 1990 Borders/Myers take over at C, Olerud at DH, Glenallen Hill 4th OF, Mark Whiten broken in as was Luis Sojo, plus current White Sox president Ken Williams. You get the idea. Kids mixed in every year, often in part time roles then moved to full time once ready. On a team perpetually in contention.

So why did the 83-93 end? Kids still were broken in and coming (Delgado in '94, along with Alex Gonzalez #1, and Shawn Green, while '95 saw Green everyday in RF, AGon at SS, Sandy Martinez at C, Tomas Perez broken in, Shannon Stewart at 21 getting first shot. But the pitching just wasn't working (Edwin Hurtado, Tim Crabtree about as good as it gone then but wows were on the way). I think part of the problem was the pipeline was drying up due to Ash not getting along with the Dominican super scout Epy Guerrero and cuts to everything by the new owners (short term thinking costing them long term). Basically, as long as Rogers owns the team I doubt we'll hit this again as they see the revenue from TV immediately and from the stadium. JPR and AA didn't get things going like they wanted, but it looks like Atkins might have it going.

Seems when the team went 'all in' it tended to limit everything. '92/'93 the Jays went 'all in' with Morris, Winfield, Molitor, Stewart and got 2 titles but stopped being competitive quickly. 2000 saw them go all-in too (Michael Young and others for Esteban Loaiza...grrr among other deals that didn't work out). Pre-2006 also was like that (BJ Ryan, Troy Glaus, A.J. Burnett, Lyle Overbay, among other minor deals, followed the next year or two with Zaun, Marco Scutaro, plus Scott Rolen) then they burned out. 2013 and 2015's big deals we all know all too well (skyrocketed payroll didn't win in 2013, then mid season 2015 when AA was worried he'd be dumped he went all in and it worked for 2 years then aged out). Our current Jays have been investing in payroll a LOT these past 3 years but slowly (1 major free agent a year, plus a few deals). Keeping core pieces as kids to develop here (Kirk, Vlad, Bo, Manoah, Espinal, Gurriel, Hernandez, Biggio, Jansen, Moreno, Romano, Mayza) but counting on free agency and trades a LOT (esp midseason) to fill in pitching for the rotation (Gausman, Stripling, Berrios, Kikuchi, White) and pen (Cimber, Richards, Phelps, Garcia, Bass, Pop). Kind of the opposite of that 00's team (rotation home grown, lineup imported) while the vast majority of the 15/16 teams were imported. I think developing within is better long term as you get the cheap years while most trades are for older ($$$) players (exceptions are Hernandez & Espinal from the rebuild stage here). I have a lot of hope this will be more 83-93 than the other stretches thanks in large part to this. Lots of kids, hopefully more on the way. Keep the money flowing down there to build up the team long term. $1 invested there is more valuable than $1 in free agency long term and that is how I hope the Jays are thinking - I plan to be around for many years to come so I want the Jays to be over 500 most of those years and contending.
John Northey - Monday, October 17 2022 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#423890) #
Just reading an interesting article about 7 guys who are rule 5 qualified this year who the Jays might not protect. Guys like Spencer Horwitz, Addison Barger, Chavez Young, Yosver Zulueta, Adrian Hernandez, Orelvis Martinez, and Tanner Morris. I suspect the Jays protect all of them by cutting free agents Phelps & Stripling & JBJ (duh), Casey Lawrence (AAAA guy). Those are the brain dead choices opening 4 slots, but 60 day IL guys Capra, Saucedo, Ryu, all go back on so a net of 1 spot gained.

Now the interesting stage - marginal guys are Gage, Merryweather (out of options), Zimmer, Kay. Next level would be Hatch, Thornton, Saucedo. Guys who aren't in the majors yet but might be on the bubble are Leo Jimenez, Hagan Danner and guys who had a cup of coffee in Griffin & Capra & Lopez (don't see any of them being cut).

So 1 open slot right away, then the debates. Zimmer, Kay, Gage, Saucedo I figure are locks to clear 4 more with Merryweather highly likely for one more giving a net of 6 slots. Then the Jays debate between protecting Thornton, Hatch, or the 7th guy of the above group. O Martinez and Zulueta are locks to be protected over any of the guys I listed. Barger should be, as should Horwitz. Young, Hernandez, and Morris I'd protect over any of the guys in the marginal or next level guys imo. I fully expect the Jays to do a 3 or 4 for 1 or 2 trade before December to clear up some of this as I'm certain they want to hold onto Thornton & Hatch as 7th/8th guys for the rotation (no earlier). Zimmer (or someone similar) would be signed to a minor league/spring invite with opt out deal to fill the 5th OF role of pure defense/speed. Gage looked good to me, but the Jays seem to not like him for some reason. Saucedo also seems decent but is probably 10th or so on the pen depth chart. Merryweather being out of options makes him useless now (can't see him on the ML roster all year). Zulueta should be in the pen at some point in 2023, Martinez is still a quality prospect, Morris reached AAA last year and didn't do too well but was solid overall with a 752 OPS at 2B/3B (and can play SS) but is probably the weakest of the group. Hernandez is a reliever who had 12.4 K/9 last year and 15.6 in 2021. A bit wild (3.9 BB/9 lifetime) but a wow arm. Chavez Young is a speed demon with a 690 OPS last year and was 21-1 in SB-CS, 119-34 lifetime who is a CF/RF - if his defense is strong he would be a cheap replacement for Zimmer/JBJ. Barger & Horwitz should be helpful in 2023 with solid bats if needed. These guys all are able to help in 2023, no way any should be lost to Rule 5 to save guys like Thornton, Hatch, kay, etc. or even Ryu (who might pitch in September or might not).
mendocino - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#423891) #
Four names I'd add
LHP's Jimmy Robbins and Brandon Eisert
IF Alex De Jesus and OF Gabriel Martinez

Question: Do you need both Lopez and Capra on the 40 man?
If you add Horwitz, Barger and Morris all playing in Buffalo, more than enough older infield/outfield types maybe dump more than one.
Magpie - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 06:26 AM EDT (#423892) #
plus current White Sox president Ken Williams.

Williams was one of those reclamation projects that didn't work. He had a nice rookie year playing CF for the 1987 White Sox. In their wisdom, they moved him to 3B the following spring. He'd never played there in his life. He made 14 errors in 31 games and never, ever hit again. He started bouncing around the league. The Jays got him on waivers from Detroit, and Montreal eventually got him on waivers from Toronto.
Jonny German - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#423893) #
Question: Do you need both Lopez and Capra on the 40 man?

Nope. It's a bit of a mystery why they added Capra in the first place. I expect he'll be cut.

Robbins and Eisert are definitely Rule 5 risks. Whether the Jays protect them or not will tell us whether they think the stats are backed up by the stuff.

It's hard to imagine Gabby Martinez sticking on a big league roster at this point, but the upside is so big I think he has to be protected. De Jesus on the other hand is not worth a spot yet, he won't be a good prospect until he gets the K rate under control. I wouldn't protect Tanner Morris either.

jerjapan - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#423894) #
Capra could be the next Casey Lawrence - a guy we like on an emergency basis, who gets additional salary for being on the 40 man, and can be dropped and safely waived and if not - hey, good for him.  he was a senior sign guy - 5k bonus if I recall.  but Tim Locastro might play in a WS.  you never know.
Martinez is definitely protected.  Hernandez, Young and Morris are bubble guys and I defer to the org's knowledge on decisions like those, but for some of these guys, it's as simple as options remaining, who fits a need on the depth chart or who has a tool they like.  so swap saucedo and gage and francis and hatch and so on.  doubtless they will pick up a guy or two on waivers, and they really need to start hitting on these pickups here and there to maximize the big league pen in particular, but also AAA starting and OF depth. 

The best quick read I've come across so far on Jays in the AFL:
ďI honestly don't miss seeing the sliders at the plate,Ē Danner said. ďI like to throw them now.Ē
mendocino - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#423895) #
Thanks for the input guys, and for the link jerjapan. Nice info on Watson and Tolhurst.

RHP Troy Watson: touching 99 FB, mid-80's slider and upper-70's curve
RHP Anders Tolhurst: FB up to 96, low-80's slider and upper-70's curve.
Both need to be protected.

Hagen Danner pitch chart from first AFL appearance.
FB 98.7, SL 86.5, CB 79.6, Cutter 90.5
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#423896) #
Keith Law had an article at The Athletic on AFL prospects. He was present at a number of games so his observations were based on what he saw. The only Jay's prospect he commented on was Danner and his quote was," He missed almost all of 2022 with an injury but looked back to 100 percent in Arizona, sitting at 97-98 MPH with a mid-80's slider and a 80 MPH changeup. It's straight relief for him but if he's healthy he should advance more quickly -- and has to, as he's already on the 40-man roster."
jerjapan - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#423897) #
it's make-or-break time for Danner, but I want to see him get another real chance.  I mean, for a HS draftee, he has barely pitched as a pro - 41 IP total.  Conversion to the mound / covid / injury.  Kid needs to catch a break. 

no reason not to consider him in the mix for a spot in the pen next year. 

I was interested to see the velo numbers for those 'who'? guys in the AFL.  glad to see this as a growing org focus. 
hypobole - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#423898) #
Jays AFL pitchers are Merryweathering. Despite the high velo, they're getting pounded.


Tollhurst 6.75
Danner 16.20
Watson 16.88
Gregory 42.43
bpoz - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#423899) #
Regarding the rule 5 draft you try to never give up on a potential impact player. I think Danner and Leo Jimenez are potential impact players, so in my view they were worth protecting.

With 6 playoff spots in each league it should not be that hard to be in the hunt for the last spot. Last spot was won with 86 & 87 wins in both leagues. So there is fan interest if there are teams within 3-5 games to start Sept. So this is revenue generating. You don't want to clog your 40 man roster if you think you can compete.

These teams IMO will not try to compete. Oakland, Washington, Cincinnati, Pittsburg and Colorado. So they could take useful players like Horwitz and Chavez Young. Kyle Johnston had a good 2021 but a bad 2022. He is worth a shot for someone's pen if he has the stuff. Rule 5 is just a money transaction, if the player is returned.

Romano, T Bergen and D Jimenez were claimed and returned. Romano and Jimenez worked out (but that was eventually). Our 2021 & 22 team showed us how important the pen is if you hope to compete.

We will know in late Nov who is protected. The who is selected in Dec.

jerjapan - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#423900) #
too perfect man.  Im stealing that phrase, props to you of course.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#423901) #
It's Arizona, so the ERAs will be high but usually not that high...It isn't a big deal for Danner- he's thrown 1.2 innings and given up 3 hits and no walks while striking out 1.  But, Tolhurst walked 10 in 12 innings prior to the AFL this year and 5 in 2.2 innings there.  There is very little risk that he would be claimed if left off the 40 man with those kind of control issues.  Troy Watson was quite effective in Vancouver at age 25, but has walked 4 and struck out 3 in 5 innings in the AFL.  He's looking like a "no-protect" to me. 
Waveburner - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#423902) #
I only consider 3 guys as clearly needing to be protected from Rule5.

Orelvis Martinez
Addison Barger
Yosver Zulueta

I think they probably protect Gabriel Martinez as well since they previously did so with Moreno and Jimenez when they were still in A ball.

Spencer Horwitz is borderline. I probably wouldn't bother as an older 1B prospect with medium at best power is unlikely to be taken. Jimmy Robbins maybe borderline as well, would depend on scouting reports.

I think there is basically zero chance Adrian Hernandez, Chavez Young, Tanner Morris, Brandon Eisert, Alex De Jesus, Troy Watson or Anders Tolhurst get protected. If Morris could play any position competently maybe he'd be a bubble guy to protect but every report I've seen says he is bad everywhere. Doesn't hit well enough for a guy with no position.
Gerry - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#423903) #
I agree with waveburner except that I would probably protect Robbins.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#423904) #
Here's a fine and informative C's chat with Jimmy Robbins. It sounds like a huge makeover while recovering from 2021 TJ surgery and that the development facility in Dunedin really helped him.  The results were very good. 
As a lefty with a starter's repertoire, I can see him being picked by a club for use at the back end of a bullpen for a year. 

I like Horwitz but you'd guess that he wouldn't be likely to be taken.  My feeling generally is that there is very little risk this year; there are any number of players currently on the 40 man who could go and not that many additional players that are important to protect.  It might indeed by that the club should leave a spot open on the roster for a Rule 5 selection of their own even though they pick late. 
Gerry - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#423905) #

Would you continue to protect Leo Jimenez? In my opinion he is not worthy of a slot (too injury prone, didn't play well this year) but if you take him off I could see a bottom feeder like Pittsburgh taking a flyer on him.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#423906) #
Very high scoring games in the AFL. That is a fact!! So the hitters stats are better than normal? The pitchers stats are worse than normal? Britton is doing great but Barger is terrible. All our pitchers are bad!!
mendocino - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#423908) #
Pirates have a lot of decisions to make before the rule 5 draft happens, but if you could turn Leo Jimenez into Ji Hwan Bae..

Pirates and Orioles starting to feel the 40 man crunch from their rebuilds
Paul D - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 07:38 PM EDT (#423909) #
What would happen if they cut Ryu? It's cruel, and I'd be all for keeping him around for rehab, but I can see why a team wouldn't want him on the 40. Is that against the rules?
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#423910) #
Tough call on Leo Jimenez. He's just 21 and he did add some pop this year.  But his game seems to involve HBPs and he keeps getting hurt doing it.  Will he find a way to armor up?  I don't know.  I still get Chuck Knoblauch vibes from him, and that's an awfully valuable player. 

The pandemic messed with the timing of development decisions and Jimenez is a classic example.  He was on the 40 man last year after 240 PAs in low A ball at age 20. 
John Northey - Tuesday, October 18 2022 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#423913) #
Once the IL guys need to go on the 40 man I figure they could do that. Could do it with an understanding they will keep him in rehab until he is ready but he is a pro and would understand it is just to clear a 40 man slot I'd figure. The Jays before doing that would need to talk with guys who are close to Ryu first on the team to make sure they understand it is purely a housekeeping thing though (Manoah appeared close to him).

For the 40 man a key is that teams can feel safe drafting relievers often as you always need a mop up guy at the back of the pen which is all you use rule 5's for generally. Hitters are a lot harder to hide on a roster though with short benches vs 1985 when the Jays had 2 hitters on the roster who were rule 5 (Lou Thornton and Manny Lee which still left 13 slots for real hitters, 3 slots used by platoons at 3B, DH, and catcher thus just 1 more 'open' slot but it didn't stop them from winning 99 games).

Right now though I suspect the Jays will do a deal with a bottom feeder who needs live bodies to have any shot - a bulk trade maybe where 4 or 5 guys go from here for 1 or 2 from someone else. Bryan Reynolds in Pittsburgh has been talked about a lot in trades the past few years, and isn't a free agent until after 2025. Switch hitting CF/LF who had a 126 OPS+ last year could fit in nicely. The only guys over 100 for OPS+ there with 250+ PA were at SS/CF/DH/utility IF with the catcher at 53 for OPS+. Tyler Heineman was the backup catcher. 2 regulars in the rotation were sub 25, just 1 of 6 with 10+ starts was 29+ so a guy like Jansen might be attractive to them (they'd love Kirk or Moreno but I wouldn't deal either for Reynolds). Given how poor their corners were they might like Gurriel to cover LF/1B (both sucked for them), then mix in a few prospects - it'd take a couple of decent ones to make it work. The Pirates don't have any bad deals left so that isn't a potential factor though. Strangely the Trade Simulator has Kirk worth less than Reynolds - now that'd be a gutsy trade to make as Manoah wouldn't be happy and the fan base would be unhappy too.

Fun digging into possibilities. Someone (maybe me) will have to make a good post about LH CF options for 2023 the Jays could trade for, sign as a free agent, or develop quickly. Same for 2B options (3 good ones here with the potential for Bo to move over if the Jays go nuts and sign one of the big SS free agents), starting pitching options, etc. Post 2023 will be very interesting with Hernandez, Gurriel and Chapman all free agents too.
Michael - Wednesday, October 19 2022 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#423922) #
"What would happen if they cut Ryu? It's cruel, and I'd be all for keeping him around for rehab, but I can see why a team wouldn't want him on the 40. Is that against the rules?"

I don't think it is against the rules, but you usually don't need to do that as people on the 60 day DL don't count against the 40 man roster (until they come back off the 60-day DL). Generally the people that have season ending injuries and/or surgery go on the 60-day DL which frees up the 40-man roster spot.
bpoz - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#423926) #
I am still following the AFL.

Tolhurst pitched 4 innings yesterday 0 ER. So he is healthy at least.

T Morris is getting the odd H & bb.

Z Britton is hitting .462. A C/OF bats LH. The hope is that he will develop as a C. Having many AA catchers is good. R Gold, P Clarke, A Sosa, Britton. Lets see what happens next year.
Joe - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#423927) #
Michael, unfortunately for the Jays' 40 player roster, the 60 day IL goes away after the season ends (after the world series, I think?), so Ryu will definitely take up a roster spot.
John Northey - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#423929) #
FYI: I recommend listening to the Deep Left Field podcast by Mike Wilner - his most recent one has Ross Stripling describing the feelings in the club house after that bad game, and that he doesn't see himself in the upper tier of pitchers this winter and doesn't expect an insane deal. Good signs if the Jays want to resign him that he might be open to a reasonable deal pre-free agency. Sounds like his top priorities are being on a contender (his teams have been in the playoffs every year but last year and then barely missed), then being set for his family. Houston would be high on his non-Jays list but he'd like to stay here. I get the feeling a quick $30 for 3 might do the job (ages 33-35) which is reasonable even if he ends up a long man, although the Jays might start with $20 for 2 or $27 for 3. He talked about other guys telling him that they went out into the market and were surprised how few teams bid on them, so he sounds a bit nervous about it all. For $10 a year for 3 I'd take him back no issues. It also would leave space and $$$ to look at a premium starter to improve the rotation (2-3 for Verlander...oh that would be sweet) but then would put the Jays in a bind during those years, thus necessitating a deal involving an OF (Hernandez or Gurriel) to free up cash. to free up cash on this team? Using Roster Resource at FanGraphs we see the Jays at $123 mil pre arbitration but arbitration in the $10+ range for Vlad, Hernandez, and probably in the $5+ mil range for Bo, Tapia, Jansen, and significant raises for Biggio, Romano, Mazya, Richards, Cimber. So who can you cut from that group? Tapia comes up obviously, Biggio has to be on the trading block at this point (Espinal pre arb, Merrifield listed at $2.8 but that sounds wrong (Cot's says it might be up by $4 mil more guaranteed). Now, the Jays don't NEED to cut guys to get payroll down, but if they want to sign a big guy this winter they might want to. Hernandez the biggest potential savings (could see a team with poor offense wanting him). Tapia, Biggio combine to reach $10 mil probably in 2023 but are they worth that much to the team now? Would they be worth that to someone else?
lexomatic - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#423930) #
Apparently Gurriel had surgery on his left hand ( wrist?). I don't remember hearing about a wrist injury. How early did it happen amd could it have contributed to big HR drop (beyond league levels).
Magpie - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#423932) #
I don't remember hearing about a wrist injury. How early did it happen

Schneider said at the beginning of September that Gurriel had been fighting through left wrist soreness, but not for how long. At that time, it had already been two months since he'd hit a HR.
John Northey - Thursday, October 20 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#423933) #
For oddities - 5 Jays nominated for Gold Gloves (not stone ones).
  • RF: Jackie Bradley Jr.
  • 3B: Matt Chapman (kind of an automatic nomination)
  • 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - yup, not kidding.
  • P: Josť BerrŪos - well, he had to do something right :)
  • UT: Whit Merrifield - really?
Ex-Jays of note: Marcus Semien at 2B (surprised Espinal didn't get nominated there), Travis d'Arnaud at C (NL).

I see Chapman as likely to win at 3B, JBJ has a shot in RF, pitching is a total crapshoot as none of the 3 nominees have won before. If Vlad wins at 1B I'll be quite surprised - he makes some nice plays but I didn't feel he was up to Gold Glove status yet.
James W - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#423935) #
Whit Merrifield won the Fielding Bible award for 2B in 2021.
scottt - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#423936) #
It would be weird to drop Tapia and Biggio, the 2 left bats.
Maybe Barger can slot at 3B in 2 years--but nobody has him as a high ranked prospect, so a long shot.
That leaves LF and DH as the spot where you want to have left bats.
At some point, they need to open a spot for Orelvis Martinez, but not before August I think.
Tapia is a non-tender candidate to resign for less or sign somebody better.
Biggio would have little trade value.

Jansen and Gurriel could be moved now to open up playing spots.
At this point, I have Kirk as the #1 catcher anyway and a decent left bat can DH instead of Jansen.
Clarke and Britton are getting close. 2 catchers who bats left.

What nobody talks about is that they had postseason revenues for 2 home games.
That should lead to a bit more spending to continue improving.

The pen is set. They have a bit of money to spend on a 4th starter.
Ryu might come back late in the year.
Merryweather and White are out of options.
Pearson isn't.
Zulueta needs to be added.

The key things for me are the rule changes.
There should be more bases stolen.
The Jays have some speed, Merrifield, Biggio, Bichette.

They can use Merrifield as a super-utility CF,RF,2B.
Do you want Lopez and Capra on the bench instead of Biggio?
They can  be creative and aggressive with pinch runners who actually steal a base.

John Northey - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#423938) #
Huh. Didn't know that about Merrifield. FanGraphs has him at a net 1.4 on defense this year, 6.9 last year, 2.2 the year before, but a -5.9 in 2019. For DRS he was -4 at 2B this year, -2 in CF, -1 in RF, 0's everywhere else. Those stats fit my eye test - that he was decent, but nothing special in the field. After watching Espinal at 2B and SS and 3B I sure wouldn't pick Merrifield over him at any of those positions, or in RF either. So I don't get Merrifield getting a shot at a gold glove over Espinal who appears to be the superior fielder (8.2 on defense, +4 DRS at 2B, -1 at 3B, 1 at SS, funny could've sworn he played in RF this year but I guess it was only in the wild 4 man OF shift.

For Outs Above Average Espinal has 9, Merrifield 5. Looking at the fielding charts Merrifield is average or slighly better everywhere he played, Espinal clearly above average everywhere but 3B where he is slightly below average. It is interesting to look at. Merrifield is a lot better than I expected overall. He is a very good utility guy to have. I see a mix/match between him and Espinal working well in 2023 with Biggio being cut back. At 2B Biggio was clearly above average, and good but not 'wow' everywhere else (even 3B!). The team might be set with those 3 all mixing/matching at 2B and backing up everywhere else but CF/C - heck, Espinal (2020) & Merrifield (this year) have even pitched in blowouts. I'd say all 3 are useful guys if they can live with limited playing time. It isn't hard to picture Gurriel or Hernandez being delt to free up more playing time (and hopefully get something useful) for these 3 plus Moreno in LF. Just need to find a real CF to mix in with Springer so he can move to RF/DH more often and hopefully stay healthy.
scottt - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#423939) #
Teoscar complained about an undisclosed injury who has plagued him all year.
scottt - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#423940) #
The offensive bar for a catcher is relatively low but the Jays might actually need a left bat in LF more.
scottt - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#423942) #
The Royal played Merrifield in RF because that was their need.
He's kinda like Biggio, best at 2B but he has the speed to play CF although his arm isn't great.

Espinal has been very good against left pitching.

If Moreno is the best of the 3 at gunning runners down, he might become the #1 starter overnight.
There will be more steals next year.

John Northey - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#423943) #
For a left bat I'd be chasing Arizona hard for one of theirs - the only team I know of with a surplus of LH CF'ers.

As to the Gold Glove, one more note: the figures used from a stats POV are up at SABR
  • Pitchers: Berrios (1.4, 4th), Manoah (0.7, 7th), Gausman (-1.5, 25th)
  • Catchers: Kirk (4.6, 4th)
  • 1B: Vlad (1.5, 1st, 2nd is at 1.2)
  • 2B: Espinal (4.0, 5th), Merrifield (-2.3, 12th)
  • 3B: Chapman (0.6, 7th - Donaldson is 1st at 7.8)
  • SS: Bo (-7.8, 14th - only Bobby Witt is listed lower at -10.6)
  • LF: Gurriel (0.1, 6th), Tapia (-0.7, 9th with 5 worse)
  • CF: none qualified
  • RF: JBJ (3.6, 3rd), Hernandez (1.6, 4th)
Interesting to see how high Kirk was - he looked good back there this year imo and I think he'll make the top 3 one of these years. Vlad being 1st at 1B was surprising, he'd have been 4th with those stats in the NL where Christian Walker scored a 10.4 - miles ahead of everyone else (2nd at 3.1).
bpoz - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#423944) #
I expect our young players to work on improvements. Hopefully with the approval of the FO and the minor league higher ups.

Kirk may try to lose weight or improve his conditioning. He is young and seemed to run out of gas late in the season.

Barger is naturally right handed. He is thinking about switch hitting.

Moreno's hand injury in 2021 should completely heal. His arm is incredibly strong and accurate. I think he probably is in great shape. Atkins mentioned his take charge abilities. Hope he gets to ST on time and be ready for Opening day.

Robberse and Tiedemann went to Dunedin after the AS break for some lab work. The Jays development people must have thought it was a good idea. Or maybe they went for innings limiting purposes. Robberse 111IP, Tiedemann 79 IP, Zulueta only 56 IP and Zulu became a 1-2 inning reliever in Aug due to an injury or innings limit.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#423945) #
John Schneider 3-year contract.

A firm hand?
uglyone - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#423946) #

Juan Soto to the Padres was the headline but all four teams left standing made some key additions at the trade deadline.@ByDavidSingh looks at the impact those players have made in the playoffs so far.

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) October 21, 2022
PeterG - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#423947) #
Am surprised so many want to trade Jansen or believe that will happen.

Such a move would be suicide for the Jays and result in less wins than in the 2022 season.

Jays were 40-18 with him behind plate and under .500 when he wasn't and that was with Kirk having advantage of catching Manoah.

Jansen is far superior to the other 2 in game calling and all aspects of defensive catching and was arguably the best hitter as well.

Either Kirk or Moreno will be dealt or all 3 will be kept for now.
bpoz - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#423948) #
Atkins moved fast in locking up Schneider.
mathesond - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#423949) #
"Such a move would be suicide for the Jays and result in less wins than in the 2022 season."

For the love of Dewey, please use fewer wins, not less wins :)
Mike Green - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#423950) #
I could have sworn Taylor Swift's latest album contains a song "Your Wins Are Like Water".  If Swift is signalling that she is on the "less" side of the debate, maybe it's time to re-think our position on this crucial issue. 

Speaking of word choices, I personally wouldn't say that Atkins "locked up" Schneider early. "Signed to a medium-term deal" or "Committed to him", sure, but Schneider wasn't about to run with his "free agency" in October.
John Northey - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#423951) #
Won-Lost records when x is playing is noteworthy, but isn't predictive. Lets check our 2 core catchers in 2022 and 2021. But by OPS against and W-L when starting
  • Jansen: 21: 734 22: 711; 21: 30-24 22: 40-18
  • Kirk: 21: 667 22: 665; 21: 24-16 22: 43-31
By OPS against it is a clear win for Kirk, but Jansen has an amazing WL this year. Net over 2 years is 70-42 Jansen, 67-47. Yet the OPS against is much better when Kirk catches (mainly due to Manoah I assume). So why is this? I suspect fluke more than anything. When Berrios pitched the Jays were 23-9 (116 win pace), when Gausman pitched they were 18-13 (94 win pace) and the same for Manoah (18-13) but it is safe to say not one person here would rather have Berrios pitch than Gausman or Manoah this year. Heck, Stripling when starting the Jays were 17-7 (115 win pace) so by W-L record Berrios was better than the 3 who were ahead of him in the playoff starting role (not counting the losses in the playoffs). Now sometimes it is accurate like Kikuchi starting 6-14, 2-6 for White, Ryu 4-2 (OK, not accurate there).

Bottom line? Be careful about reading too much into wins with player x playing.
John Northey - Friday, October 21 2022 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#423952) #
Which of the catchers will be traded if any? I suspect whichever can get the Jays a player they really want. That would be a LH hitting CF who has a good bat and good to great glove. I now see Alek Thomas as a lot more likely as he is a great glove, no bat right now, but showed a great bat in the minors. With Carroll their great hope being a CF as well, I suspect they want to maximize his value in CF rather than having him in LF all the time (where they can more easily play a great bat/no glove guy if they choose). I suspect it all depends on each teams scouts and what they feel each players potential is and where each teams GM feels their teams are at. Jansen I wouldn't hesitate to trade as his glove can be replaced via any backup (there are always great glove/no bat guys out there) and with Kirk & Moreno you have 2 young catchers who are good hitters and fielders. Moreno has a solid arm, Kirk by DRS was +9 this year, after a -3 in 2021 so he clearly worked hard on his defense. His framing was worth 7.6 runs according to FanGraphs. Jansen was 5 DRS vs 0 in 2021, -1.4 framing, so I have a lot of trouble seeing Jansen as being so good on defense that he is needed to avoid any nightmares. Moreno caught 41% of base stealers in AAA this year even with the new rules in place which should make it easier to steal. He did the same in the majors (41%). I suspect that will become a more and more important factor as time goes by. Not to mention the Jays will have budget issues soon as Vlad, Bo, Manoah all get to free agency years so they'll want to clear out guys who are in arbitration already (Jansen, Hernandez, etc.)
bpoz - Saturday, October 22 2022 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#423953) #
In 2019 Jansen had 347 ABs in 2022 Kirk had 470 ABs. That may mean something as that was the most in their career. Kirk's bb/k is one of the best in the league.

Moreno is very capable of being a good #1 C.

Long term contracts for Jansen and Kirk are possibly being considered. Moreno maybe after a full year of playing. If his bat is good then he can play other positions to get more ABs. OF & IF makes him a very good injury replacement if his D and O are good.

Atkins and the FO will figure it out.
PeterG - Wednesday, October 26 2022 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#424025) #
Am surprised that no-one has mentioned Zach Britton who is leading AFL in BA, OBP and OPS. He is a C/OF and a left handed hitter who has reached AA level in Jays org. He is not Rule 5 eligible till December of 23.
bpoz - Wednesday, October 26 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#424026) #
Britton is interesting. He is 24 years old now. I don't know when he will be 25. His K rate was high but improved in AA.
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