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It's two teams with identical 30-27 records, and neither of them are all that happy about it. Our destination is Citi Field in the Large Apple, which is a venue where the Jays haven't won very often. Exactly twice, to be exact.

The Jays were last here in July of 2021, and on that occasion they did win the middle of three games, mainly by whacking five home runs off Tajuan Walker and a couple of relievers. And the Jays split a pair of games here in 2018, winning 12-1 in the second game behind J.A. Happ's seven shutout innings. And that was the first time the Jays ever beat the Mets in New York. They lost all nine games they played at old Shea Stadium. The team is now 2-14 all time when visiting the Mets.

It gets better. Tonight they get to see the only man who has actually thrown two no-hitters against them.

Yes, Justin Verlander is now a Met, as Steve Cohen is throwing all the money he can find - a considerable sum, in his case - in an effort to bring the Mets a third championship and their first since 1986. Verlander turned 40 in February, but he is coming off a rather impressive season (18-4, 1.75) that earned him his third Cy Young Award. He missed the first month of this season, and so far he has been alternating outstanding performances with rather stinky ones. The last one was a stinker, by the way. He actually hasn't pitched particularly well against Toronto over the years (4-6, 4.29 in 15 starts) - except on those occasions when he was throwing a damn no-hitter, of course.

The Mets pitching has surely been a disappointment to them - they're barely better than league average in preventing the opposition from scoring. Kodai Senga and Mad Max Scherzer have been just fine but Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and Tylor Megill haven't been particularly great. The bullpen has absorbed the loss of Edwin Diaz quite well, thanks largely to David Robertson. He's now 38 years old, but since losing most of three seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery Robertson is pitching about as well as he ever has.

The Mets are not a young team. They have the oldest pitching staff in the majors - besides Verlander, you have the two 38 year olds (Scherzer and Robertson) along with Adam Ottavino (37), Carrasco and Tommy Hunter (36), Brooks Raley (35), Jeff Brigham and Dominic Leone (31.) Hey, kinda like the 2015 Blue Jays. Obviously, Jose Quintana (34) won't make them any younger when he finally makes it to the mound, probably in July.

The lineup does have youth at two positions - third baseman Brett Baty is 23 and catcher Francisco Alvarez is just 21. Alvarez has hit so well that Omar Narvaez may have some trouble getting back into the lineup when he makes his imminent return after losing most of two months to a strained calf. At any rate, Pete Alonson (28) and Francisco Lindor (29) are pretty much the only guys on the roster anywhere near what should be the prime of their careers. Everyone else is already on the wrong side of 30.

Verlander and Scherzer do seem determined to prove that a great player's prime may go on and on and on. But time waits for no one, kids. Trust me on this.


Fri 2 June - Bassitt (5-4, 3.80) vs Verlander (2-2, 4.80)
Sat 3 June - Berrios (5-4, 3.86) vs Megill (5-3, 4.67)
Sun 4 June - Kikuchi (6-2, 4.47) vs Senga (5-3, 3.44)
Toronto at New York (Mets), June 2-4 | 115 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
scottt - Friday, June 02 2023 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#429535) #
Overall, I think they are still paying for the foolishness of passing on Realmuto.

Beating the Mets seems mostly a matter of not challenging Pete Alonso,

They don't have a strong bench, so they are not going to be playing platoons, but 1 through 4 in their lineup is tough to go through.
They just lost Gary Sanchez on waivers to the Padres; he lasted 10 days.
Daniel Vogelbach is their DH (he seems to be the spoke person for the larger bases).

Verlander is 40 and it's starting to show. The guy most likely to shut the Jays down now is Kodai Senga.

Robertson has been very good but the rest of the pen hasn't.
They have ex Jays Dominic Leone in there and they are mostly where the Jays were 2 years ago, picking guys on waivers, giving shots to struggling vets, etc...
They just traded for Vinny Nittoli.
It's one team against which you might want to run the count and get the starter out sooner than later.

hypobole - Friday, June 02 2023 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#429539) #
The 1st round of the 2016 draft has been awful. Will Smith taken 32nd is the only 10 WAR player. The 2nd round has 3. Both the 3rd (Zac Gallen/Sean Murphy) and 4th rounds (Shane Bieber/Corbin Burnes) have 2.

As for the 2nd round, Bryan Reynolds went to the Giants. No need to rehash that one.

Pick 64 the Mets got their best hitter this year, Pete Alonso. 2 picks later the Jays took their best hitter, Bo. What I never knew was the pick between Alonso and Bo.

That would be Mitch White.

John Northey - Friday, June 02 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#429542) #
Kind of a neat draft that 2016 one. Getting Bo and Biggio was good, also got JB Woodman (never reached majors) who was traded 1-1 for Aledmys Díaz (2.1 WAR here), who later was traded 1-1 for Trent Thornton (0.9 WAR so far and might be it). Not a great draft for the Jays, but not horrid either (Bo alone makes it a good one). Zach Jackson looked good at times, but was taken in the rule 5 draft by Oakland back in 2020 and is one of the few good news guys for them this year (2.50 ERA in 18 IP in relief for them).

The 2015 one was a disaster (AA's final one). No player the Jays signed has reached 1 WAR yet. Brady Singer was easily the best the Jays drafted that year (2nd round, didn't sign) who has 4.9 WAR for KC (1st round pick in 2018).

2017 so far looks like a flop, but has some hope in Nate Pearson and Ryan Noda (1B for Oakland with a 142 OPS+, part of the Ross Stripling deal, LAD lost him on waivers to Oakland).

2018 is a flop, 2019 is Alek Manoah. 2020 and beyond are far too early to judge in any serious way.
Kelekin - Friday, June 02 2023 @ 11:19 PM EDT (#429546) #
Wonderful pitching tonight. Congrats to Bassitt, he's in for a heck of a night!
John Northey - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#429547) #
Just what the Jays needed - Bassitt pitching amazing for 7 2/3 IP, leaving just 4 outs for the pen. A lead off HR for Springer, then a 9th inning 2 run dinger for Varsho (boy did he need that). Jay pitchers giving up 0 walks vs 10 K's. Sweet.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 01:08 AM EDT (#429548) #
I’m perfectly happy if Varsho has a bunch of 1/4s or 0/3 with a walk along with his stellar defence and baserunning. Would I like more sure but I’d be happy with a 240 avg and solid power/walk numbers.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:01 AM EDT (#429549) #
That was the Jays 9th shutout this season, the most in MLB.
The Jays have not been shutout this season.
bpoz - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#429550) #
After a horrible May the Jays are still solidly in the playoff hunt. Jays 87 win pace, NYY 93 win pace. No more bad months and a great month for June or July will improve our positioning nicely.

Texas is good due to the many moves they made including the new FO. Baltimore is a surprise. The AL Central is terrible.

I expect about a 9 team playoff race every year for the next few years. This will create a tense atmosphere which is good for baseball. If the Jays get their hoped for "waves of prospects" then less expensive FAs are needed which should reduce payroll.
soupman - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#429551) #
The FO says that they expect "waves of prospects"...but since AA left, I've never understood how they aim to achieve that. What have they done same/better or differently than teams like the Dodgers or Rays who achieve this? What are the tactics the Jays are using? I hear words, but I don't understand the actions they are taking that could even potentially produce these results. Under AA, I had a clear idea of what he was trying. I see a lot of "best practices" in place these days, but I just expect that to result in mediocre results since most teams with a functioning cash flow do the same.

Perhaps my thinking is skewed having watched the Gillick teams winning by running mega-payrolls and mortgaging the future. If the Jays are here in 2023 with zero titles, do I hold the same views? Perhaps not.

With that said, the feeling that the sky is falling over the last few weeks has been, i agree, a bit overblown. The Jays have had a hard sked so far relative to the division, and they just need to make hay here leading up to the deadline.

greenfrog - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#429552) #
The team seems to have righted the ship somewhat in recent days. They're only two games behind the Yankees in the loss column. Springer and Belt and Berrios have been doing better of late.

It looks as though Tampa and Houston will likely make the postseason. Baltimore, New York, Seattle and Toronto look like the main contenders for the other two postseason spots. Three things that would help the Jays secure one of those spots are Manoah returning to form, Ryu joining the team this summer and pitching effectively, and Guerrero Jr. heating up at the plate.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#429553) #
The FO says that they expect "waves of prospects".

When did the FO say this?
bpoz - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#429554) #
The goal I see the Jays hoping for is to always "compete". I am quite sure that many of us disagree on what "compete" means.

IMO compete is finishing 3 games short of the last WC spot. That is the low end version because we were in a playoff race that generates revenue. 95-105 wins is "not competing" but "dominating" which still generates revenue.

We probably also disagree what a "wave of prospects" is. In 2019 I think we had a wave of prospects arrive. Not Teo because he had 476ABs in 2018. Maybe Gurriel only 249 ABs in 2018. Jansen, McGuire, Tellez, Vlad, Bo, Biggio all started in the 2019 or 2018 which was a SSS. Romano was the only successful pitcher that started in 2019. All the other pitching prospects failed. S Reid Foley was quite successful in the minors like many of our current pitching prospects in A/AA but he could not succeed in the majors. That is definitely a wave to me because they all showed up basically together. Good results for the big team in 2020,21 & 22 from that wave. Arizona just received a wave of prospects.

Since 2019 wave of ours we got since 2020 to present Kirk, Manoah, Espinal, Moreno and maybe Pearson and whoever else shows up this year. Not enough quantity in 4 years to call a wave.

Our success is due to luck Ray, Semien, trades Chapman, Berrios and expensive FAs Springer, Ryu, Bassit, Gausman and others. Luck, trades and FAs are still in our "compete" strategy.

92-93 - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#429555) #
"There are waves of talent that are coming," Atkins said at a wide-ranging season-ending media availability. "It's not just the guys that we saw in September. There's a wave below that and a wave below that." - CP

“Some of these (prospects) are going to be a lot better than we think, and some are going to not be the players that we think they’re going to be,” Jays president Mark Shapiro said recently. “Someone’s going to come out of nowhere one year and shock us and surprise us, and be a far better player than we ever dreamed he could be. That’s the nature.

“So you need to have waves of talent coming and you need to have dozens of prospects — not two, three, five prospects. I wish I could give fans a front-row seat to what I get to see and what I’m reading every day, and the reports I’m hearing from (player development execs) Gil (Kim) and from Ben (Cherington) and from (Eric Wedge) and from Jeff Ware. But there are some really good things happening.” - Toronto Star

bpoz - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#429556) #
Instead of "expect", how about "hope for" or "need" waves of prospects?

I don't actually see a wave helping a contender. 2B,SS &3B in 2019 was only possible because it was a massive rebuild.
Nigel - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#429557) #
The one thing I can say with confidence - you really can’t take what this management group says in interviews at face value. Watch what they and do not listen to their public interviews. I don’t even have a huge problem with it - they’re marketing pitches not information dissemination exercises.
scottt - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#429558) #
Under AA, I had a clear idea of what he was trying.

Which was running a team on a low budget.
Drafting guys and not signing them.
Selling at the deadline for bench players who were out of options.
Acquiring guys who where extendable, but whose original team didn't think they were worth the money.

Bautista was 27 and had never been worth replacement value.
Encarnation was 26 and his defense was getting worse every year.

Stroman was passed by  other teams because of the height.
The Mets didn't want to overpay for a knuckleballer.

Once he got some money to spend, we had to Miami trade which was trading a load of prospects for free agents who wouldn't have signed the same contracts to come to Canada. And then more prospects to upgrade the shortstop.
scottt - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#429559) #
The guys struggling are young guys. Guerrero is 24. Kirk is 24. Manoah is 25. Varsho is 26.

Incidentally, 26 year old Rafael Lantigua has been the best hitter in AAA.
It's a guy who didn't make the prospect list, not even in the others/missed section.

soupman - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#429560) #
I don't think he was ever forced to have a 'low' budget relative to the league. He was tasked with a rebuild (halladay and wells era ending), and an organization that (to my eye) was gutted because the previous GM possesses an excess of hubris.

AA's main contributions imo were rebuilding scouting at the amateur and pro levels (which led to him winning most of those trades), gaming drafts/taking risks.

I also think he gained insight into building chemistry over time. The Martin signing being a good example.

I think the Jays would have had a real shot in 2016, and I don't think they've been close since then until now. If Manoah was even league average this year, they're probably comfortably in second right now and on pace for over 100 wins. Ideally they start looking more like that kind of squad soon because the deadline is coming into view, and more germane to the management team: people in toronto tend to buy more tickets and merchandise when the team is winning games.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#429561) #
Thanks, 92-93, but it only somewhat answers my question.

I didn't doubt they said it, my question was WHEN did they say it, since the post that prompted my question implied they were saying it now. Your reply references Cherington, who left after the 2019 season.

AA/Beeston said the same hyperbolic wave thing early on, but not after AA made the 2013/2015 trades.
bpoz - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#429562) #
A thought experiment. We are a contender in 2023 92-95 wins. Then 2024 is a repeat but we have the equivalent of 2019 Vlad (3B), Bo and Biggio in AAA at mid year. Too many variables but fun for me to think about.

Gillick moved A Griffin and D Collins to make room for T Fernandez and G Bell. But we were young but not a contender.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#429563) #
Something I found sad on 2 fronts.

Only 6 players have 100 PA's in their home park and have yet to hit a HR in front of their fans. 5 of them have hit a combined 4 HR's on the road. The 6th is Vladdy.

114 players have 100 home PA's. Vladdy's .066 ISO ranks 106th of the 114. That's sad front 1.

Here's sad front 2. Whose .380 home ISO is the highest of the 114? That would be Brandon Drury.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#429564) #
I do worry about both vladdy and kirk's struggles and especially the lack of pop. Manoah too of course.

But then i remind myself they're the youngest players on the team and decide patience is the key.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#429565) #
"I don't think he was ever forced to have a 'low' budget relative to the league."

True. The criticism wasn't relative to the league, but relative to market size. I remember "payroll parameters". I remember AA wanting to sign Ervin Santana in 2014, but there was no budget money, so he had to go hat in hand to the players. I remember the 2014 trade deadline when AA was given no money for upgrades. I remember posting we had offseason-long Festivus here with our airing of grievances toward Rogers. I remember Beeston's 5 year FA rule (4 yrs for pitchers IIRC).

Atkins hasn't had nearly the constraints, especially budgetary constraints, under Shapiro that AA had under Beeston.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#429566) #
Should we trade Vlad straight up for Drury who many fans wanted to run out of town? You could argue Drury is the better player now.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#429567) #
True hypo but at the same time maybe I give Shapiro credit for being able to convince Rogers to open up the purse strings both on and off the field.

though even then, its annoying that that seems to be a necessary skill for our team's GMs, when it shouldn't have to be.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#429568) #
I appreciate that Shapiro got the Dunedin complex created and they’re upgrading the dome at no costs to Toronto taxpayers. Nice in this day and age of public stadium funding.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#429569) #
I've long resigned myself to the fact that they are just default BSers. "Waves of prospects" is something EVERY FRONT OFFICE wants. It's not some cool new idea or gameplan. It's just something to say to lower current on field expectations.

That being said, I really can't argue against this FO's drafting. If Tiedemann is as good as he looks then they're getting us a Bo, Manoah, Tiedemann star-ish type talent every two drafts, which is pretty great tbh.

Getting star level talent is all i really care about from the draft. Good solid middling talent can be found affordably in other ways (by a clever FO at least), but drafting elite talent is what really gives you a leg up.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#429570) #
Anyways, would be nice to start seeing us get the odd sweep here or there.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#429571) #
I think this FO has done pretty well with drafting position players. My biggest issue with them is they seem to be hit and miss with drafting and developing pitchers. We see this in both starters and the bullpen. They’ve had to make trades that include highly rated position players or flyers to shore up holes in those spots. Aka we need more Pearson types that are failed minor league starters that turned into relievers. With that trades like the White or Bass/Pop trades wouldn’t be necessary. It does look like they are in the process of fixing this looking at the A and AA lineups but AAA is rough atm.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#429572) #
Aka you shouldn’t have to pay for 6th relievers or 5-6 starters.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#429573) #
speaking of re-building the organization:

the draft takes place in 36 days. (July 9th.)

Toronto's top 5 picks: # 20 / 89 / 121 / 157 / 184 overall.

# 20 slot value $3.75 million.
scottt - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#429574) #
Let's put thing in perspectives:

In 2012, the Jays were 23th in payroll, about midway between Baltimore (19th) and Tampa (25th).
In 2013, following the Miami trade and the Bautista extension, they jumped to 10th, but by winning percentage they were 23th.
In 2014, they were still 10th in payroll, but that included a lot of injured pitchers, they won 83 games without contending.
In 2015, they were down to 16th in payroll. Bounced up to 13th in 2016 and 7th in 2017.
Then the wheels fell off.

Now they are back to 7th.

hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#429575) #
Just noticed the Rays have used 22 RP's this season. Actually 20 plus the 2 position players we saw in the 20-1 game. Jays have only used 11.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#429576) #
based on both this year and recent years' performances, I think today's batting order is pretty much ideal at the moment.
Hodgie - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#429577) #
Not sure how the Jays drafting of position players could be deemed successful. Maybe I’m missing somebody, but other than Bo who have they drafted that has become anything more than a marginal big leaguer? I am not even sure how much credit I give them for Bo either - they drafted the immortal JB Woodman before Bo. I expected much more after seven drafts.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#429578) #
So at what point do the "Vlad just needs to swing at strikes and he'll be fine" and "the exit velocity is off the charts, he's fine" narratives end?
Kelekin - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#429579) #
The Jays tend to draft some high ceiling pitchers, but for hitters they look for hit tool above all else and hope the rest comes. Now we have a bunch of high contact hitters through our minor league system that don't necessarily have clear positional homes. I love a player who can hit but there's a huge dearth of high ceiling hitters compared to other teams.

I do think they've realized their mistakes when it comes to the bullpen though based on the past couple of drafts and trying to rush some arms through the minors.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#429580) #
Man. The Jays really need the old Vlad back. That’s twice that he’s swung at a pitch out of the zone and killed a promising situation.
Kelekin - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#429581) #
The first week of the season, the Jays were playing small ball and manufacturing runs. We don't anymore and I really can't understand why. We are no longer a power hitting lineup, we should be doing our best to move runners over. Calling a contact play with all the infielders in too...yikes. We should be up at least 3-1 here.
dalimon5 - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#429582) #
Bichette, Manoah, Tiedeman, Moreno, Kirk, Pearson all drafted by this regime. Austin Martin was a highly touted pick that didnt pan out. So in 7 years they've drafted a superstar (Bo), Cy Young finalist (Manoah), a top pitching prospect in baseball this year (Tiedeman), top overall prospect in baseball last year (Moreno) and a top hotting young catcher. Brandon Barriera also looks like a nice pick. You definotely haven't been paying attention.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#429583) #
“Man. The Jays really need the old Vlad back”

Request granted (for one PA at least).
greenfrog - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#429584) #
Swanson delivers.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#429585) #
Belt has completely turned around his season and is now hitting .262/.385/.400 (125 wRC+). And that's after a 49 wRC+ April. I saw his last two PA today and he used a good compact swing to generate two doubles, one down the RF line and one to left centre.
hypobole - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#429586) #
Bichette, Manoah, Tiedeman, Moreno, Kirk, Pearson all drafted by this regime.

Kirk and Moreno weren't drafted, they were IFA's.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#429587) #
Still acquired. Point being I think they’ve been decent at acquiring fielders. Not great just decent. But it’s hard to say they’ve been good with relievers when it’s just Manoah and Pearson. Especially when they have to trade prospects like Martin or Groshans to acquire pitching.
uglyone - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#429588) #
Kirk was a cheapo find by a since departed AA scout, right at the very start of the shapiro era. Don't think i give that find to them.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#429589) #
Baltimore selected second overall in 2020. They took a pass on Austin Martin and surprised some people by choosing OF Heston Kjerstad (signed for $2.59m below slot value, currently hitting .301/.372/.574 in AA). They then chose SS/3B Jordan Westburg at #30 (hitting .308/.379/.607 in AAA) and OF Hudson Haskin at #39 (hitting .391/.500/.652 in AAA). Also notable in the first five rounds is Coby Mayo (151 wRC+ in AA). Interesting draft by Mike Elias.
bpoz - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#429590) #
From UO "getting star level talent from the draft is all I really care about"!! Any ideas how to do that UO? My ideas below.

What was the attraction of Deck McGuire and Logan Warmoth? High floor I imagine ... Eddie Zosky? Gillick missed on many 1st round picks.

C Sale was a LHP that threw hard. But passed over for Deck. Halladay was a HS pitcher that could throw hard. HS pitchers are what? Mainly failures? Never mind Deck. What about that college pitcher drafted before Max Pentecost? Gunnar Hogland also fell to us due to injury issues. Honestly I am not expecting 100% success. So this is basically my rant.
electric carrot - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#429591) #
“Man. The Jays really need the old Vlad back”

Request granted (for one PA at least).

Well the double was a ball outside the zone. Not sure that's exactly the old Vlad with a discerning eye.
Magpie - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#429592) #
Well the double was a ball outside the zone. Not sure that's exactly the old Vlad with a discerning eye.

True, but after that first called strike I'd be swinging at anything in the same time zone.
Nigel - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#429593) #
What is the “old Vladdy”? What are the reasonable expectations for what “peak Vladdy” looks like? Vladdy has had about 2400 major league plate appearances. The fact is that he’s had one 300 or so AB stretch of mega stardom offensive performance - which was largely played in very favourable minor league hitting environments in Dunedin and Buffalo. The other 2000 PA’s suggest that his bat is significantly above average but not star level. I see exit velocities and plate appearances that suggest an elite bat is a good bet. But the major league data is piling up to suggest that the “old Vladdy” (ie Dunedin Vladdy) ain’t coming back.
lexomatic - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#429594) #
True, but after that first called strike I'd be swinging at anything in the same time zone.

There were many bad calls. Vashon in top 2nd could easily have been a 4 pitch walk instead of 8, but should've been 5.
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#429596) #
I have to agree with Nigel here. You can’t expect him to reproduce Dunedin or Buffalo numbers and the former especially propped up his stats. Take those numbers out and yeah it’s pretty ordinary. He’s got a .782 OPS lifetime at Rogers. That’s a decent player but not a superstar especially at that position. Compared to his 1.054 at Sahlen and 1.418 in Dunedin. I think the number of at bats at Rogers is enough to show what he is.
John Northey - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#429597) #
The draft is always an interesting thing to debate. Lets look at 2016 - only pick #32 in the first round (Will Smith by the Dodgers) has 10+ WAR. I see 10+ as the minimum needed to be a great pick. Jays had pick #21 and took T.J. Zeuch (negative WAR).

Round 2 : #1 is Bo Bichette (16 WAR), 2 picks earlier Pete Alonso (15.8) was taken by the Mets. A few picks earlier Bryan Reynolds (14.4) was taken by the Giants. Everyone else is sub 4 WAR.

Round 3 : Zac Gallen (14.3) by the Cardinals was a great pick. And the A's did fine with Sean Murphy (10.1). The Jays took Zach Jackson (1.4 WAR, good for 7th best in the 3rd round so far) 4 picks before the Cards took Gallen. Sigh.

Round 4 : Shane Bieber (16.5) by the Guardians, Corbin Burnes (10.1) by the Brewers. Jays took Josh Palacios (0.1) later that round. 3rd for WAR has 3 WAR.

Round 5 : Again, Jays got the best guy so far in Cavan Biggio (6.0)

After that it gets slim. Tommy Edman (15.8 Cards) in the 6th. Tony Gonsolin (9.7 Dodgers) in the 9th, Adley Rutschman (7.1) in the 40th (by the Mariners who couldn't sign him sadly).

Basically the core of any draft is in the early rounds. Sometimes gems can be found later but by round 5 you are getting most of the real talent assigned to a team. Outside of the odd Rowdy Tellez who says he won't sign cheap but then when push comes to shove he will sign (30th round) or you get very oddball situations like HOF'er Mike Piazza (62nd round) who was drafted as a favor to the manager. Yeah, baseball can surprise at times.

So in 2016 were the Jays smart (top possible choice in 2 of the first 5 rounds) or dumb (negative WAR from their first round pick) or lucky? All depends on how one looks at it. 2020-2023 it is too soon to say for sure, but 2020 is odd as only 5 picks (COVID) and 2 have been traded. Nick Frasso who the Jays probably regret trading now, and Austin Martin who hasn't played an inning this year.
John Northey - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#429598) #
Vlad has been good on the road - 284/358/476 lifetime. At the Rogers he is just 263/327/455. Dunedin was video game nubmers (410/521/897) but only covers 96 PA.

The big question with Vlad is why does he perform so poorly at the SkyDome? It is pretty much a neutral park. If he can figure out how to relax there like he does on the road he should get that OPS well over 800 (traditionally home field helps a players #'s).
Meanwhile Bo at the Rogers hits 292/334/466 vs road 304/344/511. 930 OPS in Dunedin btw. Hmm... maybe we need to rethink what the Rogers Centre is. This year the Rogers is an 89 so far for how it affects pitchers and hitters (ie: it is an extreme pitchers park) but a 97 long term (pretty much neutral but slight advantage to the pitchers).
Kasi - Saturday, June 03 2023 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#429599) #
It is amusing that Shapiro said that the changes wouldn’t make it a hitters park and everyone doubted them and guess what it’s not a hitters park.
hypobole - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#429600) #
As a group, the pitchers have been helped a lot by the Dome. - 3.10 home ERA, 4.43 on the road.
It's hurt the hitters, but much less so - 107 wRC+ at home. 113 on the road.

Both catchers, Springer, Belt have been much better at home. Chapman, KK, Whit about the same. It's the other 3 that have massive road advantages.

Bo 171 road, 124 home.
Vlad 160 road, 73 home.
Varsho 125 road, 17 home.

For perspective, Bo/Teo/Kirk all had 129 wRC+ overall last year. Zimmer 22.
scottt - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 05:41 AM EDT (#429601) #
With all the gambling going on, strikes cannot be called by the umps.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 06:16 AM EDT (#429602) #
My take on Vlad is that he's reached the point where he's thinking too much and maybe trying too hard. When I go golfing, which is infrequently, and just swing and hit the ball, I'm merely bad. If I stand and look at the ball and start thinking " keep your elbow in, keep your head down, rotate your hips, etc., etc.", then I turn into a robotic, disjointed body with a thousand moving parts that either hits worm-burners or god-awful hooks and shanks that threaten fellow golfers playing different holes.

Anyway, last year it seemed Bo Bichette was thinking too much. He'd swing at pitches a foot outside the zone and then watch pitches right in the middle of the strike zone. The joke was that two pitches into an at-bat and it would be Bo-and-two. Was he listening to his coaches and others giving him advice and bringing that to the plate? He credits his turn a round in late August to being a fantastic hitter to " being himself " and I would bet that includes clearing his mind when he approached an at-bat.

Right now, I see Vlad frequently swing and miss high strike, 95 mph fastballs. Joe Siddall has commented more than once that Vlad is "swinging long". To me, it looks like he's trying to hit the ball 5 miles. What I do know is that Vlad Guerrero is not an ageing superstar. He's quite capable of hitting 95 mph fastballs, but as I said before, I suspect he's thinking too much and trying too hard. Maybe the argument that two years ago he was playing in smaller parks is true, but peak Vlad hits the ball out of any park. I'd wager that two years ago, Vlad was coming to an at-bat full of confidence and with a " see the ball, hit the ball " attitude. Whether he can have a Bo Bichette transformation remains to be seen, but I do believe that Vlad has the talent to be more than he is now. Sorry for the essay for those that have read this far.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#429604) #
Vlad leads us to the league championship series and beyond.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#429605) #
Sunday morning story time:

[ circa 1976 ]

{ telephone rings }

Peter Bavasi: " Hello? "

George Steinbrenner: " Bavasi! "

Peter Bavasi: " Yes, Mr. Steinbrenner? "

George Steinbrenner: " [ censored ] "

Peter: " What's the problem? "

George: " You hired Gillick! "

Peter: " So, what about him? "

George: " He's my scouting man. "

Chuck - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#429606) #
Brandon Belt's season reminds me a lot of Jeff Burroughs' final major league season which was with the Jays. Old man skills have kicked in. Home runs have become doubles. Walks have increased. High K-rate signifies, perhaps, a problem with heat and a need to cheat on swings, which may portend impending trouble.

Still, Belt with a 123 OPS+ (which is also his career average) is useful and keeps Varsho out of the middle of the lineup.

lexomatic - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#429607) #
The draft is always an interesting thing to debate.

I've glanced recently, and the Jays have really been helped by IFA signings. But damn, why is it SO hard to just find a year by year list of IFA/ Amateur FA signings from 1985 on (apparently the rules changed then when the Jays signed a 13 year old!!!!)
Can find top 10 by franchise, everything since 2016, and the best I can find otherwise is Wikipedia search giving some 100 results but maybe 1/3 are Jays
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#429608) #
I guess I just see this differently. He has 80 contact, 80 power. He should be expected to produce at those levels. He isn’t. I see that as underperformance, not as “this is who he is”. If this is who he is, the Jays are in trouble.
John Northey - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#429609) #
For the Jays IFA signings by year I use The Baseball Cube. Has them from 1977 for the Jays up to today. Since I pay for extra access I can see their peak year for Dominican signings was 2016 (23), Venezuaela was 2018 (18), Cuba 2106 & 2018 (2 each), Mexico 2017 (4), Panama (1 many times), Japan never more than 1, Other (5) 2017 & 2019. Clearly under Atkins a focus on IFA has been a big deal. Only 3 times the Jays signed over 40 IFA's and those 3 years were 2016, 2018, and 2019.

For the early years I suspect data is very limited as I seriously doubt the Jays with Epy Guerrero only signed single digits of players a year. Odds are they signed a lot who never made it to the US to play, they burned out in the DSL.

On that site they list it as UFA (undrafted Free Agents) thus listing guys like Tim Collins and Scott Richmond.

Big years were 1979 - Tony Fernandez, Luis Leal; 1990 - Sandy Martinez, Giovanni Carrara, Carlos Almanzar, Tilson Brito, Rich Butler, Rob Butler, Jose Herrera, Edwin Hurtado, Dilson Torres (9 guys in one year who made it); 1998 - Gustavo Chacin, Guillermo Quiroz (sigh...seen as a top prospect at one time but flopped); 1999 - Kevin Cash (OK, manager prospect should've kept him); 2015 - Dany Jimenez, Vladimir Guerrero, Max Castillo; 2016 - Lourdes Gurriel, Otto Lopez, Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno

Btw, the child you remember was Jimy Kelly - he played in spring training in the late 80's for some reason and didn't look bad. At 14 he was top 10 in BB, BB&, in rookie league (Gulf Coast) but never developed. He peaked in AA at 17 210/257/301. His final pro season was at 19 in A+ for the Mets (250/319/288). His career highlight was playing in spring 1989 (his final year with the Jays) going 0-1 but showing fine defense iirc. He was the first pro player born in the 70's, first 70's child to play in spring too iirc.
John Northey - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#429610) #
FYI: Right now the Jays offense is actually pretty good - 7 of 9 regulars are 100+ OPS+, then Kirk at 98 and Varsho at 84. Springer has climbed back to 105, Belt to 123. Biggio even is climbing back up but still has a way to go at 69 (last 28 days 250/364/500).
scottt - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#429611) #
The draft involves a lot of scouting.
Teams don't scout everybody. The scouts focus on a few guys who they think will be available.
Sometimes somebody falls and the draft manager has a few minutes to decide if they want to roll the dice.
Sometimes the guy they expected to pick is no longer there and they have to pick somebody they haven't scouted well.

The IFAs seem to depend on having contracts with the guys who run the Dominican training centers.
The Jays appear to do well in the other markets like Mexico, Venezuela, etc.
Signing Cubans looks like a cloak and dagger intrigue.

I don't remember watching a game with 2 Japanese starters.

Kasi - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#429612) #
We’ve definitely been unlucky or unclutch. Good OPS numbers and fourth in WRC but 11th in runs.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#429613) #
ISLAND, I think that's a perfectly reasonable explanation. I've heard Arden Zwelling and more analytically minded Jays analysts break it down as a swing choice issue. They're pointing to exit velocity as the barometer and indicator of where he's at.

Vlad has a very good strike zone awareness. He also can still hit balls hard, but he's not hitting them in the gaps and in the seats, and hasn't consistently done so since the end of the '21 season.

I'm down to thinking it's an injury/conditioning issue or a combination of the two.
lexomatic - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#429614) #
Vlad has a very good strike zone awareness....I'm down to thinking it's an injury/conditioning issue or a combination of the two.

The  umpiring has not been consistent, however. Last year there was lots of injuries/ bad performances, and this year, some bad performances. I think he's been pressing at times, but gotten into bad habits because of some bad calls/ frustration. I think he would walk a ton with robot umps.

Thanks, John for the BC link. I haven't looked there in forever.
lexomatic - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#429615) #
Brutal Brutal umpiring
Also, top 2nd, Varsho walk SHOULD've been in 5 pitches (if Varsho even swings at S2 with reasonable calls... if he doesn't could've been in 4). He still walked, but that's 3-4 extra pitches for one batter. How many times has this happened to Jays pitchers (we know lots of HR that should've been K before the HR pitch... this is rhetorical, unless someone actually knows that).
Petey Baseball - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#429616) #
It doesn't quite explain the drop in power though. I would agree, though, that he frequently suffers from strikes called off the plate. Still as Siddall and others on this site have pointed out, he's really over swinging on some balls.

Pre- 2021 Vlad's conditioning and weight were considered a hindrance to his production. I wonder if the focus on his defence (which has improved exponentially, to his credit) has also eaten away a bit at his swing mechanics.
Chuck - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#429617) #
Senga pitches like the bad version of Kikuchi, nibbling way too damn much.
hypobole - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#429619) #
First time Senga has pitched on 4 days rest.

The overthinking seems to make most sense for Vlad, because his statcast and batted ball data is closer to 2021 than to last year.

Injury or conditioning don't explain why Vlad is hitting like Yordan Alvarez on the road and Miles Straw at home.
Nigel - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#429620) #
Although his results were good last start, kikutchi was actually pretty poor and very lucky. Totally different story today. A really promising 4 innings so far. Fingers crossed.
Hodgie - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#429621) #
"You definotely haven't been paying attention."

You definitely didn't read the post but thank you for making my point. That is a lot of pitching, a couple of IFAs, and Bo. The FO was at least decisive enough to act quickly and get something for the likes of Martin and Groshans, but their track record drafting position players remains poor at this point. It is still early-ish (7 drafts) that things can change quickly if a couple of players do break out and start contributing to the big club over the next season or two.

99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#429622) #
Belt should have 3 walks so far. 1 was his fault, 2 were the umpire’s. Who can been consistent, but consistently wrong
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#429623) #
Love seeing Vlad smoke a homer. I hope his confidence keeps growing
uglyone - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#429624) #
yeah i have a hard time using the "if only Manoah was decent we'd be awesome" given how much better Berrios and Kikuchi have been over expectations. Gausman too, really.

* Manoah '22: 6.4ip/gm, 58era-
* Gausman '23: 6.3ip/gm, 66era-

* Stripling '22: 5.1ip/gm, 76era-
* Bassitt '23: 6.2ip/gm, 81era-

* Gausman '22: 5.6ip/gm, 87era-
* Berrios '23: 5.9ip/gm, 87era-

* Berrios '22: 5.4ip/gm, 136era-
* Kikuchi '23: 5.2ip/gm, 105era-

* Kikuchi '22: 4.1ip/gm, 136era-
* Manoah '23: 4.8ip/gm, 130era-

lexomatic - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#429625) #
Jays have really grooved some pitches today.
hypobole - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#429626) #
Belt shows off some maybe-not-that-old man skills for Chuck.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#429627) #
Belt: “Someday I’ll turn into a late-career version of Jeff Burroughs. But today is not that day.”
uglyone - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#429628) #
Given he's been scorching ever since maybe his first 5gms of the year, it's a good possibility that Belt will jump past Vladdy and Chapman in wRC+ fairly soon.


* 1. Bichette 147
* 2. Chapman 136
* 3. Guerrero 130
* 4. Belt 127
* 5. Kiermaier 126
greenfrog - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#429629) #
The Jays could go with Swanson in the ninth. He threw only eight pitches in eighth. But I guess Romano should be available, as he didn't pitch yesterday.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#429630) #
He’s pitched 3/4. I think that would be an imprudent choice
uglyone - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#429631) #
Much needed sweep. Feels good.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#429632) #
100% agreed Uglyone!
Chuck - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#429633) #
Belt shows off some maybe-not-that-old man skills for Chuck.

Yep. HR #3 gives him the right to flex! But really, each of his other at-bats fits my narrative. Too bad for him that he knows the strike zone better than Rehak who treated his umpiring assignment like a SOHO performance art piece.

hypobole - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#429634) #
Not bad for a guy who was being compared to 2017 Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
Chuck - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#429635) #
Belt's day was a perfect TTO effort, even with some should-be walks having been turned into strikeouts. None of his at-bats required him to run, though he probably took a few quick strides on the home run before he was sure it cleared the wall. He's now at a .547 TTO clip for the season.
bpoz - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#429636) #
The writeups are great as usual. Thanks Magpie. We doubled our wins at the Mets home with the sweep.
John Northey - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#429637) #
Belt really has recovered nicely. May 1st he ended the day with a 161/235/274 line which made most of us think it was time to cut bait and run. After today he is now up to 259/379/415. Gains of 098/144/141. Wow. Of course, the flip side is Matt Chapman, after the May 1st game he was hitting 379/462/670, MVP territory, but now is down to 281/363/489 - a drop of 098/099/181. Gulp!

That's baseball. Guys go on hot streaks and cold streaks. Trick is to know when a cold streak is a permanent one and when a hot streak is dumb luck or a real improvement. Vlad feels like he is about to go on one of his tears where other teams are scared to pitch to him - that dinger today was a bolt and he seems to be getting his singles in. Bo has been solid all year. Springer has his ups and downs (0-5 today). Varsho even is showing signs of life with his bat. Basically the team is in good shape imo. If Manoah could just get on track things will be looking very good as we go into summer. IMO he is the only big piece still being an issue.
John Northey - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#429638) #
An oddity I just noticed - Zach Plesac has been designated for assignment. Cleveland has removed him from the 40 man roster. Big shocker given he was seen as a young potential star not that long ago (196 ERA+ over 8 starts in 2020) but this year his H/9 have gone through the roof. I'd be tempted to take him off waivers ($2.95 mil this year) and option him to AAA as insurance. If he gets it together he could be a very solid addition to the rotation, if not then around $2 mil wasted (rounding error for Rogers). Maybe send them Bass in exchange.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#429639) #
Belt does have a .444 BABIP, so his .259/.379/.415 slash line is a bit inflated. Still, he has looked much better at the plate in recent weeks. Love the plate discipline.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#429640) #
I’m hoping the Dodgers win tonight so that the Jays can pull within 1.5 games (1 game in the loss column) of the Yankees.
dalimon5 - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#429642) #
I didnt see you were cherry picking their draft success by excluding pitchers and I didnt assume that IFA were not included. You dod write that but when I read "draft" I just assumed you meant prospect acquisitions. I suppose you are right and they havent drafted much positional players other than Bo, Martin and Groshans who were all top 100 prospects. To not give them credit for Bo seems bizarre, however.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#429644) #
Excellent job by former NL players Bassitt, Belt and Varsho in this series against the Mets.
Kelekin - Sunday, June 04 2023 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#429645) #
John - I can definitely understand the appeal of a guy like Plesac for a number of reasons. But on the other hand, he's a hot head with a history of doing incredibly dumb things both on and off the field, so I can't imagine him fitting in well.
John Northey - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:36 AM EDT (#429646) #
Good point Kelekin. I hadn't paid close attention to him so I forgot his dumb actions. Hopefully he ends up in Oakland where if he gets going it won't hurt the Jays.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#429647) #
Buck Showalter couldn't help Danny Tartabull, so forget about the Mets!
John Northey - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:30 AM EDT (#429648) #
One thing this past series screams at us is that things could be a lot worse. The Mets are paying over $100 million more than the Jays for a team that is now 3 games behind us, playing in an easier league and much easier division. Mets are now at 500, 2-4 vs the AL East, 9-0 vs Cleveland/Oakland/Philly (all sub 500 teams). Remember when we all wanted Lindor? He has an OPS+ of 89. Verlander? 98 ERA+. Some guys are performing up to snuff (Nimmo 123 OPS+, Scherzer 129 ERA+) but overall the results suck for a team with a $300+ million payroll.

The upcoming Houston series will be a tough one, but José Abreu has a 50 OPS+, their catcher Maldonado a 64, but Alvarez is himself at 161 (yikes) and their pitching staff as a whole has a 132 ERA+ (gulp!) - Gausman is our only starter with an ERA+ that wouldn't drag their numbers down. 5 relievers are also above that level.
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#429649) #
YU DON"T SEI - a bunch of Kikuchi blather.

ERA-FIP has Kikuchi 3rd "luckiest" at FG. 4.40 ERA, 5.96 FIP. I rarely check this stat. Last time I did a few years back, the 2 leaders were both Hudsons, Dakota and Daniel. This time they're both Grays, Jon and Josiah.

Mentioned in the broadcast Kikuchi and Jordan Lyles are tied for most HR's surrendered - 17. Lyles has 5 more IP than Kikuchi. Allowed the the same amount of hits. Lyles has walked 4 more and K'd 7 fewer. So fairly close. Yet Lyles ERA is 6.89 - 2.49 runs higher. How?

Kikuchi's strand rate is 88.2%, 2nd highest behind only Shane McLanahan's 91.2%. Lyles is at 50.6%, #69 of 69.

Lesson? Don't give up HR's when you have a bunch of guys on base. That's called analytics.

The one stat that seems to have this year's Kikuchi pegged is his 4.39 xFIP, even though it makes no sense.

bpoz - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 08:59 AM EDT (#429651) #
Very good point Hypobole about kikuchi's HRs. It is a big flaw but he is getting through 5 innings per start which has good value.
James W - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#429653) #
...over expectations. Gausman too, really.

Gausman and McClanahan were the two pitchers most often picked in the preseason to win the Cy Young, so this performance isn't over expectation for me.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#429654) #


* 2020: 179pa, 171wrc+
* 2021: 381pa, 157wrc+

* 2022 Aug4: 248pa, 118wrc+
* Post Aug4: 50pa, -10wrc+

Not sure exactly when Belt was injured last year but i'm guessing it was around the beginning of August, and by the end of the month they decided surgery was the only option.

* All 2023: 161pa, 126wrc+
* Post Gm7: 136pa, 158wrc+
* Last 25gm: 93pa, 189wrc+

Mike Green - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#429655) #
The starting pitchers xERAs for 2023: 3.31, 4.58, 4.58, 5.40 and 6.42. Those are bad numbers as a whole. The outfield defence improvements have made terrible performances look bad, bad performances look mediocre, mediocre performances look pretty good and a very good performance look excellent. Expectations for ERA- ought to have been improved from 2022.
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#429657) #
Nine teams have a wRC+ of 105 or more. Toronto is one of those teams. We've played the other eight 23 times.

Nine teams have a wRC+ of 95 or less. We've played those teams 13 times.

Our pitching overall has been mediocre, but facing far more good hitting teams than poor hitting teams will also skew results.
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#429658) #
Mike I agree the SP rate stats are average sure (104fip-, 100xfip-), but that is with the SP pitching deeper into the games than any other team in baseball. A full inning more per game than a team like the Rays.

Trimming off an inning per game from our starters removes 3rd-time-through-the-order 80+ pitch count innings which are usually the worst innngs.

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#429662) #
YU DON"T SEI - a bunch of Kikuchi blather.

cuttlefish to hypobole for humour--especially the Steve Miller joke in the other thread.

Mike Green - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#429664) #
That hasn't been true for the 2023 Jay starting pitchers, UO. They have been worse by quite a piece the first time through the order. More walks and more home runs leading to the club trailing early. Manoah, of course, is most of the story.

The position players have been very good. The starting pitching has been a little worse than average and the relief pitching
a little better than average (hypo's point about quality of competition taken).
hypobole - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#429665) #
Thanks Leaside.

uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#429672) #
Well if that hasnt been true this year of the SP, mike, then isnt that a credit to them and an advantage they are providing us over other starting staffs?
uglyone - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#429673) #
And its fine to say that the position players have been good....but unfortunately the team's run production has been mediocre, and far below that of the other teams with big position player WAR.

Hopefully its just random variation.
John Northey - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#429684) #
Ump Scorecards for this series...

As we all figured the ump on Sunday was calling anything remotely close a strike, with the 2 worst calls being against Belt. Saturday was even worse for calling balls strikes.
John Northey - Monday, June 05 2023 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#429685) #
A different map that shows how far off pitches were on Sunday...
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