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The 2023 MLB Draft will begin at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time with the first two rounds and will be held at Lumen Field, the home of the Seattle Seahawks. The draft can be seen on TSN, ESPN, MLB Network and You can also follow the draft right here.

Day 2 of the draft with rounds 3-10 is set for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday and Day 3 with rounds 11-20 goes on Tuesday, also at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Toronto Blue Jays have the 20th overall pick.

The Blue Jays only have their first-round pick on Day 1 as they lost their second-rounder for signing Chris Bassitt. They have a total bonus pool of $6,529,700 to work with.

The latest mock draft from Carlos Collazo of Baseball America has the Blue Jays selecting first baseman Nolan Schanuel from Florida Atlantic with the 20th pick. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo from MLB Pipeline have different opinions with Callis believing the Jays will go with Miami third baseman Yohandry Morales while Mayo thinks they will go back to the high school ranks again by grabbing righthander Noble Meyer from Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon.

Image from

Round 1 - 20th overall. SS Arjun Nimmala. Strawberry Crest HS (FL). Bats Right, Throws Right. 6-foot-1, 170 pounds. Born October 16, 2005. Slot Value $3,746,000. - The area in and around Tampa has long been a hotbed in terms of producing premium high school Draft talent, and this year is no different, with hitters like Aidan Miller and Nimmala high on most teams' boards. Nimmala's age and offensive upside were on display all summer, including at Major League Baseball's High School All-American Game, and he's poised to become the first draftee ever from Strawberry Crest High School. A 6-foot-1 right-handed hitter and shortstop, Nimmala is all about projection. He calls himself a “patient-aggressive” hitter and definitely doesn't get cheated at the plate. He has at least plus raw power and can drive the ball to all fields, and while there are still some issues about his pitch selection and inconsistency in the quality of his at-bats that sometimes keeps him from tapping into that power, scouts are bullish about his offensive upside. A tick above average as a runner, Nimmala has every chance to play shortstop for a long time, with enough arm and range for the premium position to go along with loose actions. If it all clicks, the Florida State recruit could have plus grades across the board, a big reason why he's vaulted himself into serious first-round conversations. Video

Baseball America - Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the 2023 class and will still be 17 on draft day. He stood out as an underclassman for his impressive defensive aptitude in the middle infield, but as he’s added strength to his wiry frame, his tools have taken a jump and so has his draft stock. A 6-foot-1, 170-pound shortstop, Nimmala has plus bat speed and takes aggressive swings. He showed shockingly good raw power throughout the summer in batting practice for a player of his current size and physicality, with quick-twitch hands and a whippy bat that allow him to make impressive impact now, with plus raw power a possibility as he fills out. He generates impressive power with a quick turn, but his approach and contact ability need continued refinement. He expands the zone too frequently, and while he’s capable of driving both fastballs and breaking balls, he’ll also get too steep with his bat path and swing under pitches, as well as wave over them below the zone. He should stick at shortstop in pro ball, where he has the requisite actions and arm strength for the position. He’s a bouncy athlete who moves well to both sides and has solid hands, though he’s more of an average runner and often is slow to get out of the box and down the first base line. Some scouts who like him have placed Alfonso Soriano comps on Nimmala, as a power-hitting infielder. He’s committed to Florida State.

Twitter Reaction

Steve Fek @slasherbaseballs the pick of Arjun Nimmala not only tells us the organization is comfortable with depth of MLB ready talent. It Has a chance to make a significant cultural impact. Bravo

Tyler Kotila @tyler_kotila Very much so "up" on Arjun Nimmala! Seen him down here for @Florida_PG and have always been impressed with him. Really great grab for the Jays here with the uber proj. SS/RHH that's going to continue getting better. #PGDraft #NextLevel

Brian Sakowski @B_Sakowski 20. Toronto: Arjun Nimmala, SS, FL HS. Top 10 talent on our board, outlier raw power for present size, tension-free RH bat speed with huge power upside, good athlete with SS projection, still just 17 so younger for class. In love w/ this pick. #PGDraft #NextLevel

Nick Videll @baseball1587 Let’s go!! Umpired this kid several times short and powerful swing and smooth hands with quick feet in the IF the @BlueJays are getting a good one! 🔥🤘 @arjunnimmala congratulations

Scott Burgess @scottybscout #BlueJays take SS Arjun Nimmala from Strawberry Creek (FL). I saw him play in spring at his school and was very impressed with fluidity and power to gaps. Very good fielder. Congrats to him. Also the Cards missed him by ONLY ONE PICK! Ugh

Prospect Tilt @Prospect_Tilt Arjun Nimmala's upside is as high as anyone in the draft but the variance is high/ Great pick for the Blue Jays. Tremendous upside potential that'll stick at shortstop.

Peter Flaherty III @PeterGFlaherty The Toronto Blue Jays have selected 6’1” SS Arjun Nimmala. Just 17 years old, Nimmala will continue to add impact and has some of the highest upside out there. Good defender at SS with an above average arm. Already has present power in his bat.

Nate Eckert @GQ__82 FINALLY somebody took a “chance” on Arjun Nimmala and it’s the ⁦@BlueJays who will absolutely reap what the previous 19 teams won’t. @Prospects1500

Chris Clegg @RotoClegg #MLBDraft Pick 1.20, Blue Jays Select: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (FL). Steal here for the Jays, advanced prep bat who burst on the seen. Could have a 55 grades across the board, but plus power potential here with high bat speed. #NextLevel

Taylor Blake Ward @TaylorBlakeWard Arjun Nimmala is maybe the biggest upside bet in the class, there are always boom-or-bust questions with players of his profile but I'm buying, there's star power in the tools and makeup.

Mike Maerz @Mike_Maerz Congratulations to MIF Arjun Nimmala on being selected No. 20 Overall by the #BlueJays @arjun_baseball_ is the type of player that makes an impact all over the field with real offensive juice. High level academics as well. @DiamondProMedia @OstingerAcademy #MLBDraft #NextLevel

MLBExecutiveBurner @HotStoveintel Great value for #BlueJays in Arjun Nimmala SS Strawberry Crest HS (FL). Elite Bat Speed & tremendous character. If he develops properly, they got a potential All Star at 20. That's Rare....

Eric Cross @EricCross04 Nimmala is one of the youngest in the class, but the upside is exciting w/ plus raw power leading the way offensively & the ability to stick as SS long-term. #MLBDraft

Dani Wexelman @DaniWex Arjun Nimmala told me last year his name means "for a God or Hero in his religion, someone who is skilled & disciplined with a bow & arrow" & that "not many Indians play baseball, it makes him "proud" to represent Indian culture. He could be the first MLB player of Indian descent.

Rob Wong @RobWong34 I’ve known Arjun Nimmala for like 5 minutes and I’m not sure there’s a Jays prospect I’ve rooted more for to make it to the Majors.

2023 MLB Draft - Day 1 | 64 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#431359) #
The past 3 years Jays have drafted 5 pitchers in the 1st 3 rounds. The only one who is not injured is the one who was injured when we drafted him. Hard pass on a first round pitcher, especially a prep pitcher.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#431361) #
If Noble Meyer last that long, it's a really deep draft.

greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#431370) #
Interesting that Pittsburgh went with Skenes. It always feels risky to take a pitcher first overall. On the one hand, you might land a David Price or a Gerrit Cole. On the other hand, you might end up with a Casey Mize or a Mark Appel.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#431373) #
It will be interesting if the Jays continue to go hit over power college hitters like the last draft and projectable high school pitching. Life is busy for me right now, I don’t know the prospects as well as most years.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#431375) #
Won't be Meyer or Schanuel - they just went 10 and 11.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#431376) #
I would have been shocked to see Meyer reach.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#431378) #
I am going to predict Arjun Nimmala if he is there or Charlee Soto if he’s gone.
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#431380) #
After 18 picks #11/12/13/15 are all still on the board.  Wonder if they all have crazy bonus demands or something.  Arjun Nimmala is a HS SS, Colin Houck HS SS, Aidan Miller HS 3B, Brayden Taylor college (4 year program half way through) 3B.

No idea what the Jays want, or what they know of these guys but odds are they know the demands and are planning accordingly.
Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#431381) #
The following players that experts said would go to the Jays are gone, Mitchell, Troy, Wilson.

Dillon Head and Arjun Nimmala, both high schoolers, are left but will the Jays go high school. That leaves the catcher, Yohandy Morales.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#431382) #
Maybe Morales to the Jays…?
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#431383) #
Be more than happy with Morales.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#431384) #
Toronto is on the clock.
Glevin - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#431385) #
Nimmala is pick.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#431386) #
Apparently it's Arjun Nimmala
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#431387) #
good pick
Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#431388) #
Good pick for marketing.
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#431389) #
super young, plus D at SS, and no big holes offensively. i like it.
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#431390) #
Yeah, should be an easy sell in Toronto.
Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#431391) #
17 years and eight months old.

Florida HS player of the year.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#431392) #
Good pick as some expected him to go higher maybe even in the top ten - As Gerry mentioned, the marketing Dept. must be doing backflips.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#431393) #
Great pick, big upside, very young. The Jays really trust their Florida scouts.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#431394) #
Keith Law says Nimmala is “a steal for Toronto.”

“one of the youngest players in the draft class”

“highly projectable shortstop who is going to end up with maybe 70 power, at least 60, and has a powerful right-handed swing”

“very likely to stay at shortstop, with great instincts and a plus arm”

Quotes are from his longer writeup at The Athletic.
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#431395) #
I like it - ranked #11 and getting him with the 20th pick is nice.  Arjun Nimmala looks good on the video they just showed on - thin, looks like a SS or a CF.

Red Sox took Kyle Teel with the 14th pick, ranked #7. O's took Enrique Bradfield Jr. with pick #17, ranked #21.  Rays Brayden Taylor ranked #21 with pick #17.  Yankees don't pick until #26.  Rays get #31 (competitive bonus), Red Sox #50, O's #53, Rays #55. And that covers day 1.  Rounds 1, 2 and compensation rounds.  Note: Boston gets 2 bonus picks post 4th round for losing Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi.  Not exactly a massive win for them imo.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#431396) #
Longo a bit more bearish:

Even though he's one of the youngest prospects in the class, Nimmala is a ferocious rotator and is already able to generate considerable power because of the strength and quickness of his hitting hands. While aspects of his swing make him vulnerable to breaking balls on the outer third, Nimmala is able to create big power in a relatively short distance, and his swing isn't overly noisy or hard to maintain. He has a tendency to pull off of stuff bending away from him and struck out much more than expected during his senior spring, enough that he slid from the top third of the first round to the back based on his spring look. There are past examples of players who were suddenly K-prone as seniors and things still worked out (Nolan Gorman) and others when the strikeouts were a meaningful signal (Keoni Cavaco). At his size, Nimmala is more likely to end up at third base than he is to stay at shortstop, which means he has very little hit tool margin for error. The skill foundation here is still very enticing, and model-driven teams are likely to be on Nimmala because of his age and power. His upside hasn't changed but the perception about his likelihood to hit it has.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#431397) #
He slid quite a lot, but great pick. Lots of risk but lots of upside.
uglyone - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#431398) #
a defensive slide over to 3B based only on "size" rather than a skills issue doesn't really worry me too much.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#431399) #
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#431401) #
Kiey at ESPN had him ranked 11 as well:

Hit: 25/50, Power: 30/60, Speed: 50/50, Field: 40/50, Throw: 60/60

If you read the Noble Meyer blurb and got excited about the risk because it meant a giant upside, I've got the position player for you. I wrote a feature on Nimmala's unusual path. In short, Nimmala is a projectable prep shortstop who is giving scouts Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Alfonso Soriano vibes at the plate while he trains in the offseasons with his idol, Francisco Lindor, to increase his chances to stick at the position.

He is incredibly physically gifted, is young for the class, is universally praised for plus makeup and is just scratching the surface, but scouts wonder if he'll hit enough for all of this to matter. To his credit, Nimmala has every one of the components to be able to hit, so I have faith it'll work, but scouts get nervous when that isn't obvious.
John Northey - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#431402) #
FYI: He is on Twitter if anyone wants to see what he has said, videos of him, etc. Seems like he has a good head on his shoulders and is very focused.  

Very proud of his Indian heritage and that has to be seen as a plus by the Jays - he could be a key to getting a market of 1 billion+ to follow the Jays plus there is a significant Indian population in the GTA.  

So lots of reasons for this pick, imo the best is his being a top 11 talent that fell to #20.  Let's hope he signs and progresses quickly (2026 the earliest I could imagine him reaching, 2028 more likely).
scottt - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#431403) #
He dropped considerably, so there might not be much money left to gamble on another pick.

I am expecting a bunch of pitchers tomorrow.

SK in NJ - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#431404) #
Interesting pick. Definitely looks like a high ceiling/low floor (boom or bust) type, but I'm fine with that. Will be fun to see him develop over the next few years. As mentioned, if he ends up making the Majors at some point, then the marketing potential, both in Canada and India, could be huge.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#431405) #
from the FG draft chat:

Ben Schneider
8:56 At this point is it fair to say the Jays are more willing to draft risk than other teams?

Eric A Longenhagen
8:56 Yes
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#431406) #
Nimmala is an interesting contrast with the Rays’ selection at #19, Brayden Taylor. Polished hitter, excellent strike zone judgment, third baseman. We’ll see which player ends up having the better career.
Kelekin - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#431407) #
I'm really surprised Houck isn't picked yet...will be more surprised if he makes it past the Yankees here. Not sure if there are signability issues there.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#431408) #
I think the Jays are going to spend big time over slot for their top pick and expect less risk and less athlete in the next few rounds. Probably a few college hit over power hitters.
Glevin - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#431409) #
Happy with the pick. Picking 20th is usually meh so getting a guy who listed by many as top-10 talent in a super strong draft is amazing.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#431413) #
9:33 Early ARJUN NIMMALA comps? Some are saying Soriano they do have similar swings

Eric A Longenhagen
9:34 He's either righty Nolan Gorman or Keoni Cavaco
greenfrog - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#431416) #
Between Austin Martin, Gunnar Hoglund and Brandon Barrieira, I’d say Shane Farrell hasn’t impressed much with his first round picks prior to this year. He’s swinging big with this year’s selection.
jgadfly - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#431418) #
RE: Harold and Callis interview Arjun Nimmala ... what an amazingly impressive introduction to a 17 year old kid ... confidence, personality, intelligence met a genuine and open self awareness ... his parents should be 'beamingly proudful' ... my gushiness is only reined in by hearing that he has the same agent (David Meter) as Francisco Lindor (whom he just coincidentally trains with as a seventeen year old while still in high school) ... seems like a great pick ... athletic physicality (speed and size) projectability with intangibles plus intelligence ... might be best pick ever ... I guess I'm sold (come on, the Jays were no hit by the Tigers; The Detroit Tigers yesterday ... I need something to dream on)
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 07:04 AM EDT (#431423) #
Hoglund and Martin I am ok with for picks, as they were valuable enough trade chips to add to the big league team.
Marc Hulet - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#431426) #
I didn't see Cavaco as a first round talent. Arjun is a very high risk pick but he's more athletic than Cavaco was... But I'd say Arjun has shades of Orelvis. Big time power due to a very quick bat and can hit velo but doesn't recognize spin well and is very susceptible to pitches breaking away. Low-avg, high Ks early on... Long-term project with massive upside.
scottt - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#431427) #
Martin and Hoglund were good picks. Martin was a high pick that turned into 7 years of  Berrios.
Hoglund was a 19th pick that turned into 2 years of Chapman. They'd do that every year if they could.

It's too early to talk about Barrieira. He's 19. He's got years to get in shape and turn it around.

Farrell is swinging outside of the zone, but you just need to make contact once for it to pay off.
Conservative picks have never worked for the Jays.
Risky picks like Bichette and Pearson have brought fruits.

greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#431429) #
If you want to see which scouting director is hitting it out of the park, compare the Jays and Orioles 2020 drafts.

I’m not sure trading away all of your first round picks (Groshans, Martin, Hoglund) before they substantially decline in value is a recipe for long-term success at the MLB level, but time will tell.
jgadfly - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#431430) #
Interesting Comps ... 3 months older than Enmanual Bonilla. Same scouting grades across the board except stronger arm strength for AN and 10 lbs lighter ... almost hit scoreboard at Diamondback home stadium as 16 year old
The must watch YouTube interview ... "Arjun Nimmala talks Journey to Draft Combine" ...
bpoz - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#431431) #
The 2020 draft comparison between the Jays and Orioles is very weird. Orioles saved $2.5 million by drafting H Kjerstad with the 2nd choice. He is doing well in 2023 and looks like he is ready for the majors. The savings helped the Orioles spend more on the next few picks. They had great drafting by their draft director.

Shane Farrell and the Jays FO had to decide on A Martin or not. By picking Martin the draft budget was ruined which is what I believe, but anyone can disagree with me.

The early/current judgement on Hoglund is not good mainly because he has had arm injuries since before being drafted. I don't know if his signing bonus was over or under slot. 5th round pick was Irv Carter who got the 2nd highest bonus of all the Jays choices. $500,000 over slot. He is healthy but struggling to date. Barriera is ranked our #2 prospects by the prospect experts. He got an over slot bonus. Pitchers not pitching in their draft years is common for the Jays. He has pitched 4 games this year for the FSL Jays not the FCL Jays. Outstanding in game 1 but the next 3 games were 9.1IP, 8H, 4HB, 5BB and 12Ks.

I don't know what Farrell and the Jays have figured out. Round 1 takes most of the draft budget. But at least the Jays and Farrell have been able to sign their picks.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#431432) #
Austin Martin was a great pick. Find one person who didn't think Austin Martin was a great pick. greenfrog, you thought he was a great pick. He hasn't panned out. Is that bad drafting?

All picks come with risk. Almost none are major league ready. Player development has to help them build on their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Teams don't know for sure until the player is in their system.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#431434) #
The Martin saga, and the Orioles' decision not to draft him at #2 (choosing Kjerstad instead), has made me a lot less prone to buying into the hype of the moment about a particular college or HS player. While most of the industry was zigging (going gaga over Martin), Elias zagged, and ended up with a brilliant draft as a result.
uglyone - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#431436) #
Well there was a reason martin fell, so obviously many teams saw something.

But at the same time, he also had name value and it was very good work by the Jays to trade him almost as soon as it was clear he couldn't hit with a wood bat. I was worried they waited too long but they got good value for him just in the nick of time.

I have no idea if that "name value", and how that could maintain trade value down the line, factored into their choice at all, of course.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#431437) #
So Elias passed on Martin at 2. Was questioned at the time, because it often doesn't work, but turns out to be the right call in all probability. Should the Jays have passed on Martin at 5?

And they took bats until their last pick, a high school pitcher. They also had an extra pick and over $4 million more than the Jays in their pool.

As for "hype" you read the reports. Our pick this year has a massive ceiling but swing and miss issues. If he overcomes those issues he probably becomes a great pick. If he doesn't, or if they become more pronounced, he may end up as a D. J. Davis or even a Woodman. And there is not one person who knows for sure which way it will go.
Nigel - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#431440) #
I'm generally with you on this discussion hypobole - however, I would say that, in my opinion, this (i.e. the group in charge in the last 3-4 drafts) scouting and development group (emphasis on both) hasn't really earned any benefit of the doubt when it comes to assessing and developing the hit tool. The results have frankly been god awful.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#431441) #
By “hype,” I was referring to Martin.

I don’t think you can measure success by any one pick in the draft. Where Elias stands out is in his aggregate success across multiple drafts. 2020 was interesting because he passed on Martin (the BPA according to many) in favour of a lower-ranked player he liked better, which also allowed him save a substantial amount of pool money for later draft picks. Elias talked about this right after the draft:
John Northey - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#431443) #
In 2020 the Jays had 5 picks, Martin (ranked as a potential #1 - traded to get Berrios before his value collapsed), CJ Van Eyk (missed a year due to injury and missing chunks of this year too, 10 IP 1 R 3 H 2 BB 11 SO), Trent Palmer (injured, TJ), Nick Frasso (traded for Mitch White, 4.01 ERA in AA 12.2 K/9 vs 2.7 BB/9), Zach Britton (736 OPS in AA just 75 PA C/LF/RF) on the IL for over a month now.

Orioles had 6 picks, 2nd in each round plus 30th overall. Heston Kjerstad pounding it in AAA (323/414/602) in RF/LF/1B/DH. Jordan Westburg has a 900 OPS in the majors, Hudson Haskin 832 OPS in AAA, Anthony Servideo 609 OPS in AA (oops), Coby Mayo 1.026 OPS in AA (3B/1B/DH), Carter Baumler hasn't pitched outside of 11 2/3 IP in 2022 in A ball (guessing lots of injury issues).

Yeah, the O's did a LOT better than the Jays that draft it seems at this stage. But the Jays have gotten more WAR via the deal that got Berrios (2.3 vs 0.5 total for the O's so far) but that will tilt the O's way very soon most likely.

Way too soon to fully evaluate the 2020 draft, but right now if we could deal the Jays picks for the O's I'd do it in a heartbeat. FYI: Martin has 6 games in AAA this year (all in July) and has gone 3 for 24 (2 were doubles). Boy does he make me think of Travis Snider - a super hyped guy who never reached the levels dreamed of, but at a lower level as he hasn't even reached the majors yet and might never given he is 24 already.

To evaluate drafts the short term is to compare ranking vs draft position - did you get guys better than your slot? Did you sign them? As years go by you can use prospect ranking, then actual results. But that takes a LONG time to mean much. Remember, guys can be in the minors for 5-6 years or more before reaching, then teams have 6 years (or nearly 7) of control. So in theory you could've drafted a guy in 2013 and still have him under team control today (no free agency risk yet if spread out as much as possible).

Speaking of 2013 who'd have thought the most WAR from anyone drafted by the Jays that year would be Kendall Graveman 9.2 - a value pick for $5k to save money to spend on Rowdy Tellez, Jake Brentz, and the like - I suspect really was to try to sign Phil Bickford who they didn't sign but has had just 0.6 WAR so far as a reliever. #2 is Matthew Boyd 9.0, #3 is Danny Jansen at 7.2 and isn't a free agent until after the 2024 season. I suspect by the time all is said and done Jansen will have the most WAR from that draft for the Jays. Tim Mayza was also part of that draft. Still, I love that the best from it so far was the guy who got a $5k bonus.
85bluejay - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#431447) #
Shapiro is always talking about balancing risk - that the jays drafted a Boom/Bust guy I expect them to balance with some high floor/low ceiling "safe" picks today.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#431448) #
They spent their money already, I expect a lot of safe picks today.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#431449) #
Yeah, don't think they have much choice with the scanty pool money they'll have left.
hypobole - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#431450) #
Mostly agree Nigel. The warts in scouting reports seem to be the same warts picks are showing in the pros. Really hoped player development would take a step forward, but haven't seen indications it has worked on the guys they most needed to work on.
bpoz - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#431451) #
Slot value for Jays round 3 & 4 are $771,500 & $547,100. The slot value gets lower.

Will the 1st round pick get over or under slot? And by how much?

I like the 1 loud tool concept. Cam Eden has elite speed, a strong arm I believe and has very good D. What did Devon White have? He could catch and had speed. His arm maybe was good too.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#431453) #
Don't forget that part of the reason the Jays have Berrios this year is because they extended him for $140m. Also, to acquire one of the prospects they used to acquire Berrios, the Jays had to trade Stroman (who has been arguably as good or better than Berrios this year).
Glevin - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#431454) #
". Where Elias stands out is in his aggregate success across multiple drafts."

I mean, as GM, going into this year, the team has picked 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 1st so it would be borderline shocking not to have success.
greenfrog - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#431459) #
Definitely. But many of his picks have worked out brilliantly so far, not just those ones. And as mentioned, Kjerstad at #2 overall in 2020 was a gutsy call when players like Martin, Meyer and Lacy were available and being touted heavily.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 10 2023 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#431530) #
Greenfrog, do you have any observations yo the positive about this FO regarding trades or drafts? I'm perfectly fine with our FO being outperformed by another MLB FO. If we have a top 5 FO that's quite good.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 11 2023 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#431535) #
For the draft, what about extremes? #1 overall pick, Jays have never had one, but it has produced a total of 3 60+ WAR guys all-time out of 58 players - just 3 failed to reach plus 2022 & 2023 of course. Those 3 were Yankees Brien Taylor (1991), Mets Steven Chilcott (1966), and Astros Brady Aiken (2014) who didn't even sign and never got over A ball with Cleveland.

For comparison pick #20 (like the Jays had this year) has produced 2 60+ WAR guys but a lot more never reached (23 total).

What does this mean? High draft picks jump your odds of getting a solid player, or even a HOF'er, but you still get flops even with the 1st overall pick. And HOF'ers can come later, even much later - ultimate being Mike Piazza in round 62 (1988).
Glevin - Wednesday, July 12 2023 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#431599) #

very interesting paper.2005-2015
#1 picks have 71.5% chance of making the Majors with a career average WAR of 6.9
#10 have 18.7% with a career average WAR of 1.78
#20 have 9.7% with a career average WAR of 1.34

Picking in top few picks is a huge advantage. Difference between picking 5-10 tends to be bigger than 10-20
jgadfly - Thursday, July 13 2023 @ 06:14 AM EDT (#431643) #
Ian Hanomansing the Younger ... if not the Jays; perhaps CBC
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