In AAA this year (August and September), Orelvis is hitting .277/.353/.532. But this month he's hitting .326/.392/.652 and his K rate has dropped. He's finishing the season strong.

Orelvis also seems to be a second baseman now; I wonder if that's his future position, or if they're just trying something out. If that's where his future lies, he'll definitely need to spend some time working on the other side of the infield & turning double plays before he's ready for MLB action.

Orelvis figured out something May 10th. His Avg & bb/k improved. He continued this all year. Adjusted V well to Buffalo where the pitchers have much better control. The Jays emphasize the hit tool and also coach it which is paying off for some prospects.

The farm/minors have 3-6 hitters and much more pitchers maybe 8 which include no longer prospects like Pop and Pearson that can help next year. This should generate competition for ML jobs.

I don't see the Jays being able to afford a good FA this off season.

Shapiro/Atkins jays draft picks with 2+ career bWAR:

* 1. Bichette '16: 16.7
* 2. Manoah '19: 7.8
* 3. Biggio '16: 6.6
* 4. Noda '17: 2.3
* 5. Schneider '17: 2.1

Given over $50 mil is coming off the books this winter the Jays easily could afford a quality free agent if they choose. But if this team needs a rebuild then Martinez and Barger need everyday jobs along with Schneider.

Don't see how Barger could get promoted after the season he's had tbh.

Orelvis is borderline but i'd rather see him dominate AAA first before being called up.

The hitting coach(s) in Buffalo need to be in Toronto next year.

Agreed uo - Barger’s hitting line is poor relative to what the league has done in general. Martinez gas held his own but nothing special in AAA. Martinez has made great strides this year, I really don’t think it’s a good idea to push the envelope next spring with him. There are no silver bullets coming next spring from the minors.

I generally agree. If Orelvis is ready to start in the majors, I would think it would be sometime between mid-2024 and early 2025. Tiedemann seems like he might be on a similar timeline, assuming he can stay healthy.

Tiedemann's well ahead of Orelvis' trajectory imo. The only reason to keep him down would be if you think being in the minors is better for his health.

Tiedemann will likely be capped at around 100 innings next year, so the obvious move is to add an SP that makes him your #7 behind the FA & Manoah. He has never pitched more than 5 innings in a game in his pro career.

What do we see for those top prospects right now? Barger: 96 wRC+ in AAA after a 147 in AA last year, wOBA of 350 this year, 396 in AA in 2022. Martinez in AAA this year wRC+ of 114, wOBA of 378, last year in AA was 96/319.

Orelvis is interesting with his constant improvement this year. OPS by month - 409-1010-871-821 (shifted from AA to AAA 744 OPS in AAA vs 960 in AA)-867-1044. His only slump was shifting from AA to AAA, then he quickly adjusted and has been on fire lately. He might be ready, but also might need patience for the first month as he gets used to it. A callup this September when Chapman went down would've been a big boost for that vs using McCoy.

Barger is a bit different. OPS by month 500 (March 4 PA)-663-604-802-928-612, he was growing and peaking in August but flopped in September. June he was in rookie/A/AAA rehabing from injuries but that didn't help his stats (540 OPS in Rk/A). His last 7 games he has a 442 OPS (geez, you'd think he was with the big team with that stat).

Right now I'd put Martinez high on the list for getting a shot in 2024, Barger a bit lower but a strong spring for either could get them up here depending on free agents.

I expect 2B to be Schneiders to lose, 3B to be Biggo/Espinal until someone earns it (Martinez or Barger), and LF to be either a resigning of KK to push Varsho back there, or a big free agent signing to fill it. DH will be a mix/match.

Tiedemann can't make the rotation on opening day.
He could be a guy that gets called when they need a starter, at best.
He's not there for his health. He's there to try and become a guy who can make 30 starts a year.

There's still talk that Barger might need elbow surgery after the season. So I'm not convinced he's healthy - hold off judgement.

As for Hague, there is an argument to be made that he has immense value in the minors as he can impact hitters before they flame out without reaching the majors...

They need a guy who can slug 30 HR to bat around the middle.
I don't think the OBP matters since that team can't score guys on bases.

If they keep Springer leading and follow with Bo, Vlads fits better in the cleanup spot and they need a high OBP guy--maybe Horwitz, but I doubt they do that--to hit third.

They have not been good at running the bases. They don't steal when they should--like with Kirk coming to the plate. They have not been good at preventing steals either. Kirk should probably hit 9th since they never steal bases with the top of the lineup at the plate.

The lineup is still unbalanced and they can't do much against a team that hammers the outside corner and gets the dubious calls.

Schneider has won the 2B for now. Biggio/Espinal at third gives you a platoon. They could use a 4th outfielder who can play good defense and steal bases. I don't know why it's so hard to find a guy like that.

I have yet to hear a compelling vision of what next year’s team should (and realistically could) look like. Do you keep or fire the coaching staff? Trade for a bat like Alonso? Rely on the Buffalo boys (plus Roden and Tiedemann)?

It feels like the team needs an overhaul, but I have no idea how the front office should pursue that. My sense is that the team should be mixing in more young players (as they’ve done recently). It seems likely that injuries are going to be more of a factor for the veterans going forward.

The front office had a chance for a big bat a couple of off-seasons ago when they pursued Seager, but they got outbid by Texas (probably by a lot). The FA market is thinner now.

I honestly wouldn't overhaul the team. But i'd happily overhaul all levels of management.

Free agent hitters are: Ohtani (DH), Bellinger (CF), Chapman (3B), Votto (1B/DH - team option), lots of OF but few of note.

So what to do? Sign Bellinger, blow the budget and get Ohtani, or do trades. But any trade will almost have to be a challenge trade as there aren't a lot of minor league pieces worth trading and I think the Jays need to give some kids a shot or the budget will need to go to Mets level ($300+).

Guys lost last winter: Hernandez 2.0 fWAR, Gurriel 1.9, Moreno 1.1. None of them would've made a big difference. Replacements being KK 2.0, Varsho 1.5, Kirk 1.4 & Jansen 1.9 - big spreads in some cases for fWAR vs bWAR (Hernandez 2.3, Gurriel 2.6, Moreno 3.4; KK 3.5, Varsho 3.2, Kirk 1.5, Jansen 1.6) Net gone guys: 5.0 or 7.9; Net current (splitting Kirk/Jansen in half) 5.15 or 8.25 - either way the Jays are ahead this year (plus got Swanson 1.3 bWAR 1.0 fWAR and a prospect). If BR is right then Moreno is amazing with the glove, if Fangraphs is right the Jays were smart to trade him. Seems Fangraphs weakens the strength of strong defense vs BR.

My gut says the Jays chase Bellinger hard, KK the backup choice along with a RH bat (see if Teoscar or Gurriel would sign as platoon bats who'd mainly be DH's). Kids take over 2B or 3B while Biggio/Espinal hold down the fort at the other. Schneider one of those kids trying to take over a position, along with Martinez and Barger - all given a shot in spring but Schneider the heavy favorite going in. Horwitz given a strong shot at DH but if unable to sign anyone this winter they might resign Belt.