Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Three games with the still relatively hot Minnesota Twins, and we should see both the prospects sent out in the Jose Berrios trade.

After a sluggish start (6-9), the Twinkies banged out a 12 game winning streak, which will generally put you back in the thick of things. They're mostly riding a few very hot hitters: Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Willi Castro - who are all performing way above and beyond their established levels.

Austin Martin has finally made it to the show - he's exactly one week younger than Vladimir Guerrero, who's been here a while. It takes some guys longer, I guess. Martin has been playing in the outfield (LF and CF) and is almost holding his own at the plate. The other half of the deal, Simeon Woods-Richardson, began the season with AAA St. Paul (talk about having your AAA affiliate conveniently close). He was called up to start the second game of a double-header on 13 April, and turned in a very strong game against Detroit to notch his first major league W. So back to St. Paul he went, for a couple of weeks before returning on 25 April. He's started three games since returning and the last one, against Seattle, was especially outstanding - six innings of one-hit shutout, with 8 Ks. We'll see him tomorrow. It will be Joe Ryan tonight, who I always regard as timeless and eternal proof that even the Tampa Bay Rays can made Terrible Mistakes.


Fri 10 May - Ryan (1-2, 3.54)  vs Kikuchi (2-2, 2.72)
Sat 11 May - Woods-Richardson (1-0, 1.74() vs  Gausman (2-3, 3.78)
Sun 12 May - Ober (2-1, 4.42) vs  Manoah (0-0, 13.50)
Minnesota at Toronto, May 10-12 | 129 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#445808) #
Lineup tonight:

* 1. LF Schneider
* 2. CF Varsho
* 3. 1B Guerrero
* 4. DH Turner
* 5. C Jansen
* 6. SS Bichette
* 7. RF Biggio
* 8. 2B Falefa
* 9. 3B Clement

looking more like a merit-based lineup now.

would look even more like it if Springer comes back in that 7 slot next game.
Gerry - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#445810) #
Springer and Kiermaier are both out with a viral illness.
vw_fan17 - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#445811) #
Mlbtr is reporting that Sean Burroughs,  son of former Jay Jeff Burroughs, passed away unexpectedly at age 43 after collapsing while coaching his son's little league game.
mathesond - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#445812) #
Oh man. I remember SI congratulating young Sean when his team won the LLWS.
Gerry - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#445813) #
This umpire is all over the map.
Petey Baseball - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#445814) #
Ball really starting to jump off Vlad's bat. The line out to right almost went to the warning track and it was basically a half swing.
Eephus - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#445815) #
Rough. You get the small ball executed to perfection (and amazing heads up base-running by Clement) for the 2nd and 3rd nobody out. But Davis Schneider gripping the bat just a little too tight in a big spot, Varsho hitting a missile at old nemesis Santana (please just stay in the NL, this torment from Carlos S. has been going on far, far too long) and then Vlad Jr. just can't quite get the oppo poke to drop.  
greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#445816) #
Clement has had a very good season for the Blue Jays. I wonder whether he could learn to walk a bit more, without losing the aggression that seems to work for him at the plate.
greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#445817) #
Brutal first pitch DP off the bat of Varsho after the Schneider walk to start the bottom of the eighth (with a hot Vladdy on deck).
greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#445818) #
The manager is deploying Cabrera to gain left-on-left matchups. The problem is that Cabrera is not very good (he has been downright bad this year).

I would have been content to see Pearson stay in against Kepler, maybe even putting him on base if necessary.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#445819) #
holy crap they actually did it.

even a tie here feels like a huge victory.
uglyone - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#445820) #
oh they didn't tie it. lol. my bad.
Eephus - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#445821) #
Hooo boy. Made it fun at the end, but that’s such a typical way for this team to lose.
Eephus - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#445822) #
What I really mean is: that Clement hit off the pitcher at the very end, deflecting right to Santana at first (because of course it would be Santana) is just one of those random bits of bad luck that do seem to happen with higher frequency when a team is going through Hard Times.

Baseball is a weird cruel game and its deities are not forgiving.
BlueJayWay - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#445823) #
Yeah that's the thing. If that ball deflects almost literally anywhere else it's a tie game. Sometimes you just can't make this game up.
Gerry - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#445824) #
Unfortunately Clements hit was heading right at the second baseman so either way it was going to be an out.

Cabrera has been bad this season and if he wasn't a lefty he could be in danger of being dropped when Bowden and Green return. I would have to think about it if I was the GM.
Magpie - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#445825) #
Second and third, nobody out. Davis Schneider gets a hanging breaking ball and fouls it off and then Ks on a fastball out of the zone. He's not going to sleep tonight. But hitting is hard. Even hitting mistakes is hard.
greenfrog - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#445826) #
I don’t love the excuses…Yimi and Romano were available, but John Schneider went with Pearson and Cabrera in the eighth and they gave up the third Twins run. That turned out to be the difference in the game. In his postgame interview, the manager said he was planning on using Yimi in the ninth and saving Romano for extra innings. We’ve seen that from this manager a lot—saving bullets for later in the game instead of using them when it matters most.
dalimon5 - Friday, May 10 2024 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#445827) #
He's managing scared to me. Worrying about the future instead of the present. Dwelling on the history when he should be reading the present course. However he barks at the ump when strikes are called balls and vice versa so the players like him. At least the games are slightly more exciting now.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#445828) #
It's interesting that the Blue Jays moved Schneider to the top of the batter order only after some commentators suggested the move (uglyone on this site, followed by Gregor Chisholm and I think also someone on Sportsnet).

I'm pretty sure a couple of the regular Blue Jays writers get ideas from this site. There have been more than a couple of occasions where Bauxites suggest or discuss something interesting, and the same topic or idea appears in a Sportsnet or Star article a day or two later.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#445829) #
Writers definitely use this site as well as Rosenthal's articles. Two podcasts are used as well. Blair and Barker - Kevin Barker was roommates and is good friends with Schneider and he still talks with most of the players every day. He's a former top prospect and Blue Jay. His wife is Hazel Mae.
scottt - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#445830) #
Schneider is often too slow to react and tends to stick to the pre-game plan.
Like being told to pitch around Ohtani.
That's not what I would call managing scared.

Normally, I don't like to use the best relievers when losing.
Maybe this gives the Jays a chance to tie but then they still need to use the next relievers which might still lead to a loss with a depleted bullpen the next day.
However, if Garcia is finally available after a week on the sideline, I use him to see if he's OK or not.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#445831) #
It was the ninth inning of a 2-1 game with the Jays reeling (17-20 at the time and falling well off the pace set by Baltimore and New York in the AL East). It was a situation that demanded urgency and an intense effort to win. Going to Cabrera (5.65 ERA, -0.4 WAR, horrible BB/K rates) was a questionable move in that situation.

As it turned out, Cabrera fell behind Kepler 2-0 and then served up a FB close to the middle of the zone that Kepler lined to right, scoring a key insurance run for the Twins.
Joe - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#445832) #
Brutal first pitch DP off the bat of Varsho after the Schneider walk to start the bottom of the eighth (with a hot Vladdy on deck).
It was the second pitch, and it was off a splitter, and that splitter was a strike. Sometimes shit happens :(
greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#445833) #
Thanks, Joe. It was a 95 MPH (!) splitter. Duran throws hard.

Would you have started Davis Schneider at first base in that situation? He's about average in terms of sprint speed this year (27.2) and he's had some stolen bases in the last couple of years (10 in 2023, 17 in 2022). I guess it might have been too risky with Duran on the mound and Vazquez behind the plate. But John Schneider does seem conservative when it comes to starting baserunners in those situations.

The Varsho DP was the play with the highest wWPA in the game (21%). Tough break for the Blue Jays.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#445834) #
"Schneider is often too slow to react and tends to stick to the pre-game plan.
Like being told to pitch around Ohtani.
That's not what I would call managing scared."

That is exactly what managing scared is. It's risk aversion. He's managing out of fear of losing a job. He wants to please his superiors and players when he should be focusing more on the results of his decisions to the W-L record.
James W - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#445835) #
For what it's worth, the Daulton Varsho hot streak is over: .132/.233/.184 in his last 10 games. I know somebody has to hit at the top of the lineup, but the candidates are few and far between.
SK in NJ - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#445836) #
Justin Turner’s wRC+ against RHP was 105 last season and 88 so far this season. I don’t think there’s any chance this regime would make him a platoon player but a Horowitz/Turner platoon seems like a logical one at this point (obviously dump Vogelbach in that scenario).
GabrielSyme - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#445837) #
What would a youth movement look like if the Jays decided to sell at the deadline?

Let's assume the Jays find a landing spot for Vlad and Bichette along with Kiermaier, Turner and Jansen.

We could see a lineup something along these lines come August:

Varsho - CF
Barger - 3B
Horwitz - 1B
Schneider - LF
Springer - RF
Orelvis - DH
Clement - 2B
Kirk - C
Leo Jimenez - SS


Although the Jays' farm system has been poorly ranked, there are a bunch of interesting hitters in Buffalo. I'm pretty optimistic about Barger, Horwitz should at least be a league-average hitter, and I think Jimenez is a future regular. I don't think Orelvis is ready to make the leap to the majors right now, but maybe by mid-season he'll make some improvements. Berroa and Lukes are both showing some big-league quality skills, and you'd hope to give them some opportunities to prove themselves.

For pitching prospects who could potentially contribute this year, you have Tiedemann (of uncertain health), a big gap, Macko, and... that's it. So if the Jays unload Kikuchi or Bassitt or Gausman at the deadline, they might have to get someone back who is capable of starting at the major league level just to be able to take a turn in the rotation.
scottt - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#445838) #
To me, scared would be to overreact. Do everything to win today, even if that means losing tomorrow.
Overuse the good pitchers until they all end up on the IL and then it's no longer his fault.

Because he sticks to the plan, there's a false narrative that the plan is drafted by executives and office people. He's the one in charge of the planning and the coaches and scouts report to him.
He sticks to his own plans.

Guerrero is using Teoscar's bat. That's very interesting.
It's too bad Bichette doesn't have any friends to lend a bat because that's exactly what I'd like him to do.

greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#445839) #
I actually love the idea of shifting to a youth movement and trading veterans for prospects and young players (if the team has faded from contention by midsummer). The team has the opportunity to do this because they have some high-value veterans to trade.

I'm not sure whether a new front office would be a good idea. The current FO has been able to do a lot in terms of stadium and spring training renos and securing a high payroll. But I'm open to the idea. I guess it depends whether there is a better GM/president combo out there.

I don't have strong feelings about the manager one way or the other. Either way, the team does need a strong coaching staff. Not sure if it has one at the moment.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#445840) #
Even though it didn't work out yesterday ans even though (as JamesW points out) Varsho's hot streak ia likely over, i'm still glad to see that the manager is fielding the same lineup again today.

If Bo's day yesterday is an indication of his slump ending then he'll be back up in Varsho's slot soon enough. Varsho is probably going to be a decent hitter this year but i don't think OBP will ever be a big strength for him. I'd wait until Bo's good and sorted before making the move tho.

Schneider to the top of the order i hope is a bit more permanent tho - unless he completely falls apart up there.

bpoz - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#445841) #
In may 2023 11W -17L which was our worst month I believe. So far May 2024 2W-5L which is bad.

I stated I was superstitious a few days back and feared May would hurt us again. I do appreciate the intelligence posters have exhibited with various strategies proposed. I hope I am wrong about May being a killer month. I may check May 2022 and 2021 later in the week.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#445842) #
My Plan B youth movement lineup, with Jansen extended for 3 years for continuity sake:

C- Kirk/Jansen
1B- Horwitz/Jansen
2B- Jimenez/Biggio
SS- Clement
LF- Schneider
CF- Varsho
RF- Berroa/Barger
DH- Barger/Jansen/Orelvis

If Plan B happens, it's not particularly scary.  Disappointing, yes.  The hard part is in the pitching staff.

Ducey - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#445843) #
3-0 Twins. Well, that frees up some time this afternoon.
Nigel - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#445844) #
Reports continue to state that Jimenez can handle SS defensively. I’d take Mike’s plan B and move JImenez to SS and Clement to 3B. It’s not a very good team but that’s not the point. The problem is that the only impact position player in the system may be Bonilla. If they go this route they’d better hit on some of their trades of vets.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#445845) #
this is the day the jays come back!
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#445846) #
Rally time.
mathesond - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#445847) #
Yeesh. Just checked the score. Glad I decided to bench Gausman in fantasy.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#445848) #
This series ends at the 1/4 mark of the season.

1/4 mark is still early, but it's the start of "not really that early".
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#445849) #
so even with Vlad's cold start and Turner's hot start, Vlad is now comfortably ahead of Turner offensively, at 121wrc+ to Turner's 114wrc+.

The only two hitters with better stats on the year are Schneider at 159wrc+ and Jansen at , though they've done it in many fewer plate appearances.

* Jansen : 59pa, .268babip, 188wrc+
* Schneider: 101pa, .364babip, 159wrc+
* Guerrero: 170pa, .321babip, 121wrc+
* Varsho: 132pa, .253babip, 117wrc+
* Turner: 138pa, .278babip, 114wrc+
* Falefa: 115pa, .326babip, 108wrc+
* Clement: 71pa, .263babip, 103wrc+

nobody else is above water over 100wrc+.... or even at 90wrc+.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#445850) #
I think the Blue Jays have found their leadoff hitter.
Chuck - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#445851) #
Cowardly pitch-calling from the Twins. A 3-2 curve to Varsho, from a LHP, with Guerrero on deck. You reap what you sow.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#445852) #
wow they came all the way back. chances the jays actually win this tho?
greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#445853) #
Anyone still want to trade Vladdy for whatever they can get for him?
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#445854) #
attaboy ernie.

now come on Davis give us some breathing room and seal your spot at the top of the order.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#445855) #
helluvan at bat by Davis. deserved better than a sac fly there but I'll take it.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#445856) #
ah that's two well struck balls to end the inning. could have been much bigger.
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#445857) #
jo romano

our nation turns its lonely eyes to you
uglyone - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#445858) #
TSN Turning Point ?
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#445859) #
The streak endith !
Magpie - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#445860) #
Well, that frees up some time this afternoon.

Oh, ye of little faith.

Had 'em all the way.
scottt - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#445861) #
First interview from Vladdy without a translator?

scottt - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#445862) #
I can't figure why you have Biggio in your Youth movement.
electric carrot - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#445863) #
I can predict with good accuracy whether the Blue Jays won or lost a game by who posts once the result of the game is clear. (What is said notwithstanding.)
Ducey - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#445864) #
"Oh, ye of little faith"

Hey, can you blame me? Lol.

When I typed that I actually though about a reverse jinx.

So here goes: no chance the Jays make the playoffs.
scottt - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#445865) #
I didn't watch the first  3 innings. Seems like Gausman was undone by weak contact.
Jansen used to struggle receiving pitches in the bottom of the zone where Gausman lives.
However, Kirk is the guy they want behind the dish with Manoah.

The thing with Carlos Santana is that he's not even a good hitter over all.
He's the 8th hitter on this team. I do like switch hitters.

Michael - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#445866) #
Gusman had some bad luck, but he also wasn't pitching that well so it certainly wasn't all the luck/error.

An unlikely comeback from 7-1, hopefully this causes some positive momentum. And a new leadoff hitter for a while.
greenfrog - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#445867) #
I was lucky enough to attend this one in person. Great atmosphere in the RC once the comeback got going.
dalimon5 - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#445868) #
"Anyone still want to trade Vladdy for whatever they can get for him?"

Yes me. If it improves the team then sign me up.
John Northey - Saturday, May 11 2024 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#445869) #
Gotta love the playoff odds on Fangraphs - every AL East team over 20% for odds of making it. Obviously someone won't, probably multiple someone's but ...

Vlad now up to 272/360/391, Schneider over 900 OPS at 287/388/517, Turner though is dropping fast - down to 250/321/411. Past time to dump Vogelbach and his 407 OPS to give Horwitz a shot as a part time DH/1B and give Turner a few days off.
Michael - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#445870) #
Vogelbach has been pretty horrible, but we are only talking about 34 PA so I don't think that should be a huge movement of who you'd expect him to be based on offseason (which would be ~750 OPS player). That's not worth blocking someone if you do want to bring up the player in the minors, but this is like less than 2 weeks of starts for sample size for Vogelbach so not a real reason to panic or worry.

Probably the bigger question is if he's only got 34 PA so far, does he really have a role on this roster (or does he only have a role if some of the current healthy people get injured).
Petey Baseball - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#445871) #
I continue to believe Davis Schnieder's future is fulltime at second base. Hopefully, if Kiermaier is now back, this is the plan.

He's beginning to blossom into a reasonable facsimilie of Dustin Pedroia, both in body and performance, which is quite a fortunate turn of events for the Jays. Couple that with some hints of a Vlad Jr. re-discovering his elite bat in recent days, it will keep me watching this team that is teetering on the edge of a major teardown this summer.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#445872) #
I should also mention Davis is certainly bulkier than Dustin, which hopefully doesn't lead to injury.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#445873) #
Schneider is on pace for roughly a 7.5 fWAR season (over 650 PA).

uglyone - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#445874) #
For no good reason, Springer leads off today, Bo hits cleanup, Schneider down to 5th.

What possible good does this stubborness do? It just makes the situation more difficult and a bigger deal than it should be.
uglyone - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#445875) #
Vogelbach should have a bigger role as Turner cools off. Also, Turner is very old and shouldn't be relied on to be a full time starter.

Anyways, can Manoah build off yesterday's potential turning point win? I have my doubts unfortunately.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#445876) #
Agreed, Davis Schneider should be left in the leadoff spot. He has more than earned a full-time shot in that role. The Blue Jays are so confounding and deflating in their decision-making. Ugh.

Also, the WAR figure I mentioned is an extrapolation of his career WAR over 650 PA.
uglyone - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#445877) #
Barrel Rate, MLB

* 1. S.Ohtani 23.6
* 2. D.Schneider 21.3
scottt - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#445878) #
Vogelbach only got 34 PAs because Turner started the year on fire.
A good thing about starting an extra left bat is that you can pinch hit when they bring the lefty.
That's something the Jays are not doing enough.

scottt - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#445879) #
They start 6 left bats against Manoah.
They need to bring Mayza out early. Cabrera too. Richards threw 18 pitches yesterday.

Nigel - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#445880) #
I think we’ve reached the point with John Schneider that happens in every sport from time to time that I think of as “Manager’s Last Stand”. It’s that point where a team is playing poorly, fans are calling for obvious changes and the manager stubbornly sticks with his plan. Think of Daryl Sutter’s last days with the Flames. It was obvious to Flames fans that some of Sutter’s “guys” were washed and some of the kids should be in the lineup but there was Daryl sticking to his guns - playing the vets and slagging the kids in press conferences. Charitably you can call it loyalty; less charitably you can call it stubbornness. Either way, if you listen to Sinatra’s “My Way” turned up to 10 (or 11:)), it makes more sense. In my view, it signals the last dance, it’ll either work, or more likely, not. I don’t think we’re watching something particularly unusual in major sports.
uglyone - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#445881) #
Dome is open.
mathesond - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#445883) #
I am not surprised that a Nigel is suggesting listening to songs turned up to 11 :)
John Northey - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#445884) #
Lineup effect is minimal over a season. This has been shown in many studies. The big challenge is putting the best 9 on the field. That said, I don't see any sane reason other than "veteran presence" to have Springer and Bo hitting before Schneider.
92-93 - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#445885) #
Opening day at Christie Pits. Triumph throwing out the first pitch with Wendel Clark and Rick Vaive in attendance. See y'all there, I certainly won't be paying to watch Springer leadoff again.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#445886) #
LAD (27-14) bats their three best hitters at the top of the order (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman). I don’t see why the Blue Jays (18-21) wouldn’t want to emulate their betters.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#445888) #
I like the idea of Horwitz replacing Vogelbach, with Horwitz taking some PA away from Turner (who is now down to 0.1 fWAR). I think it would be a mistake for the Blue Jays to spend the bulk of the season trying to eke out every bit of value from the aging "name brand" players (Turner, Springer, Vogelbach). Some load management might also help Turner play better.

Horwitz doesn't have much home run power but he's otherwise tearing it up in AAA: .343/.467/.500 with 18.2% BB and 15.8% K. In May he's hitting .362/.434/.574. Time to promote him and give him some PA.
John Northey - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#445890) #
4 shutout innings so far for Manoah - no matter what today is a good step forward for him I'd say. Hopefully he has 1 or 2 more innings in him, but getting those 4 shutout in today is a very good sign going forward.
Doom Service - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#445892) #
But only 53 pitches - 38 strikes through five. With the recently dodgy bullpen, it's a tough call on optimal choice for the 6th and 7th. Do you trust Manoah or Pop?
mathesond - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#445893) #
I think I like Manoah for the 6th :)
John Northey - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#445894) #
Gotta love a 4 pitch innings. Seems like the Jays hitters have given those gifts to the opposition all the time, nice for one of ours to get it.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#445895) #
Give a good team extra outs, they're going to burn you. Happened to the Blue Jays T7 (Clement error).
Magpie - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#445896) #
The Jays are keeping this guy in the league.
uglyone - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#445897) #
still a bit in shock at the manager completely overhauling the lineup after our best offensive game of the year.

just why
BlueJayWay - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#445898) #
Soon as I saw the posted lineup today I had a bad feeling.

Springer in the lead off spot has gotta end.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#445899) #
The Blue Jays need Yariel and Green back in the bullpen.

No matter how well Schneider performs, he seemingly has to keep earning the benefit of the doubt. He has a career wRC+ of 169. The Blue Jays have been struggling tremendously offensively this year. It seems obvious that Davis needs to be given a prolonged look at the top of the lineup.

Springer wRC+ by month:

April 2024: 84
May 2024: 12
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#445900) #
I'd feel a lot better about this team if I wasn't spending so much money.
Gerry - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#445901) #
I have mentioned several times that GM's don't like to evaluate their teams until 40 games are played. Well guess what? 40 games have been played and the Jays are 18-22.

The Jays go to Baltimore for three games starting tomorrow but after that they play Tampa, White Sox, Detroit, White Sox again and Pittsburgh. If the Jays hope to recover their season they need to win about two thirds of that set against the weaker teams because after that its back to Baltimore.

Bottom line, the next two to three weeks are critical.
85bluejay - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#445902) #
Wonder how long Canadian Farhan Zaidi can hang on in San Francisco - his winter signings are crapping the bed and disenchantment is growing.
scottt - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#445903) #
Kikuchi dominated them for 8 innings.
Gausman got shelled.
Obviously, they should have gone to the lefties rather than using Swanson.

All moot since they didn't score and the game was already lost.
Not sure why Clement plays third rather than IKF. IKF is the better defender.

Also, throw away the scouting report on Santana and check what other teams are doing.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#445904) #
The 18-22 record flatters the club. They have been outscored by 47 runs, and could easily be 15-25.
John Northey - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#445905) #
BlueJayWay - same here. I saw Springer #1 and Bo #4 and went 'oh crap', then saw Volgebach was in the lineup again. Spreading the bad hitters around, sub 600 OPS #1/4/6/9. What a shock they could only score 1.

When you have a lot of bad hitters you bunch them together - yeah, that'll result in the odd dead inning but also let you score a few when 2 or 3 good hitters come up in a row. Today only Bo & Vlad had hits or walks so not much shuffling could've done really, but the Vogelbach watch continues - how long until he is dumped? Yeah he hasn't played much and maybe if he had 100+ PA in regular time he'd improve but what is the point? He is a free agent post 2024 regardless, and provides zero value outside of his bat (no speed, no defense). I see Horwitz is now getting a lot of time at 2B in AAA - who knows? Maybe he can be good enough there to allow Biggio to be dumped and make it so we have a R/L combo in LF/2B/1B in Schneider/Horwitz. I like how Orelvis Martinez is now getting reps at 3B too.
92-93 - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#445906) #
Tough 7-5 loss for the Leafs at the Pits. They tied it up from down 2 in the bottom of the 8th, but couldn’t cash in with first and third in the 9th. Free and entertaining baseball on a beautiful day at the park. Marcus Knecht didn’t play.
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#445907) #
"The 18-22 record flatters the club. They have been outscored by 47 runs, and could easily be 15-25."

You can only hope that this front office or ownership sees this and gets it.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#445908) #
I always think back to 2002, where the Jays actually canned Buck Martinez after a three game sweep of Detroit (I was at the Sunday game). It was an odd time to make the move, but had the team reeled off a few more wins, the optics of firing a manager on a long winning streak would be awful.

Gerry if we subscribe to the 40 game theory, the F.O. may have already decided it's time for a move and are waiting for an appropriate window of opportunity to make a change at manager.

lexomatic - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#445909) #
I don't see any way Horwitz is good enough to be more than an emergency pay at 2b. Maybe he'll surprise and be good enough for a FB pitchwr
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#445910) #
So far Realmuto is coming out ahead of Springer in the battle of the 2020 marquee free agents. Here's how they've performed under their respective contracts with Philly and TO:

Realmuto (5/$115.5m) 14.1 fWAR

Springer (6/$150m) 8.6 fWAR

At the time, I argued that Realmuto was the better choice, but the general view (which was reasonable) was that the Blue Jays had lots of catching and needed an outfielder, so Springer made the most sense.

If the Blue Jays had Realmuto right now, he could be the starting C, with the DH and OF slot being occupied by some combination of Jansen, Schneider, Varsho, Barger and Biggio.

Of course, in the real world, Realmuto was probably always headed back to Philly (barring a much larger contract offer from another team). And the Blue Jays did not need another catcher in 2021, when they fielded their best roster in the current window of contention.
Gerry - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#445911) #
If the FO has decided to change the manager, Thursday would be the day to make the change.
greenfrog - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#445912) #
My guess is that Hale would get the interim manager job if Schneider is fired.

The front office is between a rock and a hard place. Firing both Montoyo and Schneider would be an admission of repeated failure to get the right manager in place throughout (possibly) the entire window of contention under Atkins and Shapiro. But keeping Schneider on is risky as well.
dalimon5 - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#445913) #
Or option three: doesn't matter who the coach is because Atkins has built a flawed core and hollowed out whatever good it had.
John Northey - Sunday, May 12 2024 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#445914) #
Changing the manager is unlikely to make much of a change unless you can find one with a very strong reputation who is willing to come in mid-season and kick butt ala a Billy Martin type, which doesn't seem to exist anymore. Best option that way is Davy Johnson is very retired at 81. Next would probably be Joe Maddon who is 70. Hard to see anyone else jumping off the page outside of a 80 year old Cito Gaston - team always did better when he came on mid-season and it would be a crowd pleaser but really wouldn't make much sense given his age, time away from the game, how badly his time ended last time (reported that the players were revolting against him at the end iirc).
bpoz - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#445915) #
I thought Manoah was very good. His next 2 starts will say a lot about his comeback.
dalimon5 - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 07:55 AM EDT (#445916) #
I don't agree that changing the manager doesn't make a difference. It's true it won't transform an 80 win team into a 100 win team but it definitely will improve the team and player development. How many games could the Jays have won this year already if the manager played his cards a bit better? 3? 5?. It makes a big difference. We can't just say "he didn't have the trump cards so it doesn't matter." You can still Euchre the other team.
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#445917) #
Blue Jay Billions lottery, May 13 edition.

What is the combined career OPS of Ryan Mountcastle and Carlos Santana against the Blue Jays to the nearest .010? Tiebreaker: What is the combined career OPS of these men in the RC?

Cuttlefish galore are up for grabs.
greenfrog - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#445918) #
greenfrog - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#445919) # is my complete answer:

Career combined against the Blue Jays: 1.150

Career combined at the RC: 1.310

I realize that even these gaudy numbers may well fall short of how well they've performed in both situations!
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#445920) #
Do we add together the estimated OPS for each player?
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 08:26 AM EDT (#445921) #
Thanks, greenfrog. Tickets to thus lottery are free and the prizes are beautiful and delicious.
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#445922) #
That was my intention, LC, but greenfrog's guess was predicated on calculating their combined slugging pct and their combined obp and adding two figures.  We'll have prizes in all categories!
James W - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#445923) #
Cal Raleigh is mad that you left him out of this "players who only hit well against Toronto" discussion.
greenfrog - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#445924) #
Some other contemporary opposing hitters in the 1000 OPS RC Club: Seager, Judge, Ohtani, Julien

I'm sure there are others...
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#445925) #
Raleigh's line in the RC is weird.  30 PAs, 13Ks, 6 HRs, 2 W, 1 single and 8 other outs.  Feast or famine.
uglyone - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#445926) #
I thought our FO was supposed to be good at these types of analytics...

So, per the bat-tracking data now available via Statcast, the Blue Jays have the lowest average bat speed of any team in the majors this year. That, uh, tracks.

— Jonah Birenbaum (@birenball) May 13, 2024

Ryan Day - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 10:56 AM EDT (#445927) #
"Slowest bats" sounds inherently bad, but after looking at some more numbers a bit, I'm unsure. Giancarlo Stanton has the highest bat speed in MLB, but he's not a particularly good hitter at this point in his career. He's followed by Oneil Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, and Matt Chapman, none of whom are having very good seasons but can crush a ball on the rare occasion they actually make contact with it.

I'm sure there's some context that makes this a useful stat - obviously being able to swing hard is important! - but you generally wouldn't consider "swing as hard as possible at every pitch" to be a positive trait for most hitters.
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#445928) #
Mookie Betts has a lower average swing speed than the team average for the Blue Jays.  I find that this chart more helpful in understanding where the club is offensively.  It's still not a pretty picture. 
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#445929) #
And here's the individual data for the Blue Jays. 

I'll venture a guess that the pitching data is even more scary.  Let's see. 
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#445930) #
Indeed.  The pitching data is more scary.  Here's the team- dead last.  And the individual numbers
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#445931) #
It was 50 years ago.  In 1974, the AL MVP voting went like this, and somewhere in Kansas a young man was shaking his head.   Jeff Burroughs won with 3.6 bWAR and 3.7 fWAR, as the RBI champ for Texas.  The best position players in the league were pretty clearly Bobby Grich and Rod Carew.  The best player could have been either of those two or Bert Blyleven or Fergie Jenkins or Gaylord Perry or Luis Tiant. 

If you were going to value contributions to a winning team, then Grich would have been the choice.  And would have brought a smile to the face of the young man in Kansas. 
Mike Green - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#445932) #
It was 50 years ago (part 2).  The AL Rookie of the Year voting was fairly reasonable- and went Hargrove, Dent, George Brett, Burleson, Sundberg.  One of these young men was not like the others, it turns out. 
85bluejay - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#445933) #
Bobby Grich is 75 and I hope he gets into the Hall before he passes away - How the "Today's Game Era Committee" could vote in Harold Baines and not Bobby Grich is nauseating - Damn you Tony La Russa.
uglyone - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#445934) #
Plausible Best Possible Lineup using This Year's Stats Only:

* 1. LF Schneider 107pa, .383obp, 154wrc+, 5.5war/650pa
* 2. 1B Guerrero 176pa, .364obp, 122wrc+, 2.6war/650pa
* 3. C Jansen 62pa, .387obp, 193wrc+, 11.5war/650pa
* 4. RF Varsho 138pa, .312obp, 114wrc+, 6.6war/650pa
* 5. DH Turner 140pa, .321obp, 111wrc+, 0.5war/650pa
* 6. SS Falefa 121pa, .322obp, 102wrc+, 4.3war/650pa
* 7. 3B Clement 76pa, .284obp, 97wrc+, 4.3war/650pa
* 8. 2B Biggio 100pa, .333obp, 91wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* 9. CF Kiermaier 73pa, .278obp, 69wrc+, 2.7war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach 36pa, .222obp, 21wrc+, -5.4war/650pa
* X. OF Springer 161pa, .273obp, 66wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. IF Bichette 155pa, .258obp, 60wrc+, -0.8war/650pa
* X. C Kirk 88pa, .284obp, 66wrc+, 3.0war650pa

Using Past Calendar Year Stats Only

* 1. LF Schneider 248pa, .395obp, 167wrc+, 7.3war/650pa
* 2. C Jansen 275pa, .349obp, 153wrc+, 7.3war/650pa
* 3. DH Turner 597pa, .332obp, 115wrc+, 1.0war/650pa
* 4. 3B Clement 128pa, .325obp, 116wrc+, 5.6war/650pa
* 5. 2B Biggio 376pa, .363obp, 113wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
* 6. 1B Guerrero 696pa, .339obp, 111wrc+, 0.8war/650pa
* 7. RF Springer 689pa, .325obp, 103wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* 8. SS Bichette 584pa, .312obp, 102wrc+, 2.6war/650pa
* 9. CF Kiermaier 367pa, .301obp, 90wrc+, 3.5war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach 260pa, .304obp, 91wrc+, -1.0war/650pa
* X. OF Varsho 564pa, .285obp, 88wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* X. IF Falefa 401pa, .324obp, 99wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* X. C Kirk 402pa, .313obp, 88wrc+, 3.4war/650pa

Chuck - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#445935) #
Jeff Burroughs won... as the RBI champ for Texas.

RBIs, as a determinant in MVP voting, are, mercifully, an anachronism. Don Baylor's 1979 MVP is especially egregious.

uglyone - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#445936) #
Using Fangraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections:

* 1. LF Schneider 327pa, .340obp, 122wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
* 2. SS Bichette 485pa, .323obp, 120wrc+, 4.0war/650pa
* 3. 1B Guerrero 501pa, .360obp, 141wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
* 4. C Jansen 273pa, .325obp, 128wrc+, 5.2war/650pa
* 5. DH Turner 416pa, .330obp, 113wrc+, 2.2war/650pa
* 6. RF Springer 469pa, .321obp, 111wrc+, 2.8war/650pa
* 7. CF Varsho 443pa, .304obp, 111wrc+, 3.8war/650pa
* 8. 2B Biggio 311pa, .328obp, 100wrc+, 1.7war/650pa
* 9. 3B Clement 200pa, .308obp, 99wrc+, 2.6war/650pa

* X. PH Vogelbach 32pa, .336obp, 113wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* X. OF Kiermaier 316pa, .308obp, 92wrc+, 2.9war/650pa
* X. IF Falefa 258pa, .307obp, 89wrc+, 2.0war/650pa
* X. C Kirk 258pa, .344obp, 116wrc+, 5.3war/650pa

* X. PH Horwitz 16pa, .360obp, 119wrc+, 4.1war/650pa
* X. OF Barger 63pa, .306obp, 99wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* X. IF Martinez 121pa, .285obp, 94wrc+, 1.6war/650pa
* X. C Serven 10pa, .246obp, 59wrc+, 0.0war/650pa

* X. PH Votto 132pa, .311obp, 97wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. OF Lukes 53pa, .318obp, 99wrc+, 2.1war/650pa
* X. IF Jimenez 16pa, .313obp, 89wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
* X. C Henry 1pa, .290obp, 87wrc+, 0.0war/650pa
Michael - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#445937) #
The Blue Jays swing and take numbers are a little interesting too:

Turner, Kirk, and Springer with the large negative run value on pitches in the heart of the zone probably isn't great.

FWIW the median qualified MLB batter is -2 on Heart, -4 on shadow, +3 on Chase, +2 on Waste and 0 when you take it all into account. All the qualified Jays except Varsho, Turner, (smaller sample size) KK are below median on Shadow as well.
dalimon5 - Monday, May 13 2024 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#445942) #
Let me get this straight. All of these "advanced" numbers come to the same conclusion as what's in plain sight. This team can't hit, can't score enough runs and is well below average.

As an added bonus, my eyes can also provide unquantifiable information of team performance: Pressed, Apathetic and defeated.

Let's go sweep the O's to bring us all back in...
Mike Green - Tuesday, May 14 2024 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#445988) #
Greenfrog wins the Santana/Mountcastle award. Here's the prize:

Good looking and sharp memories as they age. Top prospects in the senior dating pool if you ask me.
greenfrog - Tuesday, May 14 2024 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#445989) #
Thanks for that, Mike. I hope to have cuttlefish-like memory later in life.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, May 21 2024 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#446390) #
Ross Atkins is pretty much done in this city. I think he's lost every there anybody out there still willing to defend him? I know I spent the better part of his tenure defending him. Admittedly I can't stomach this GM any more.
Minnesota at Toronto, May 10-12 | 129 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.