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Actually just a correction. The game isnt on the Fan 590 today. You can get it on the Phillis feed or you can search the radio dial for a station carrying the Jays feed.

Some nice things coming out of today's 8-6 win over the Phillies at Dunedin. The Jays knocked Randy Wolf around pretty good -- don't count on seeing much of that in Philly this year -- including a solo blast by Jayson Werth. Greg Myers started in the #3 slot against a lefty and went 2-2-1-2. Cory Lidle threw two efficient and effective shutout innings, needing just 14 pitches. Darkhorse fifth-outfielder candidate Mike Colangelo won it with a late home run, and Rule 5 draftee Gary Majewski got the victory in two shutout relief innings. And oh yeah, Russ Adams entered the game halfway through -- at shortstop. On the negative side, NRI pitchers Tim Young and Josh Towers got roughed up the most, and Doug Linton threw a mediocre inning. Nothing earth-shattering -- there rarely is in early March -- but another day of positive signs.

It's interesting that Werth's homer was opposite field. He's just entereing the age range where a power surge is not uncommon. If he keeps his K/W rate stable, he's going to be a good major league hitter.

On the TV highlights, Werth's blast looked like it wasn't far to the right of the 400' CF mark -- it was very well hit. Colangelo's HR looked like a Woodward special (line drive with just enough hang time) but it sure helped his cause. It may come down to those two, as Tosca insists on a fourth OF who can play all three spots. If Werth keeps hitting, and proves he belongs, they will be able to find him enough (250-300) AB -- he can start in RF vs. lefties, pinch-hit for Cat occasionally against tough LH relievers and finish games out there, give Wells and Stewart the odd day off, and even get some innings behind the plate.

Here's the box score; Gary Majewski fanned Thome with an eye-high heater, and best of all, walked off the mound like he'd done that sort of thing before. A nervous Jason Arnold got the SV, no doubt increasing the rumours that he's better suited for the bullpen. Nonsense; he'll improve off this outing and he's considered a future #2 starter. Doug Linton must be disappointed; his stock will drop fast unless he turns it around, which is still possible. Lidle, by far the best Toronto pitcher on the day, appears (like Halladay) ready for the season to begin.

To me, the "bubble" depends entirely on whether they carry 12 pitchers or 11. Aquilino Lopez should make that decision for them. I count nine sure things -- Halladay, Lidle, Sturtze, Hendrickson, Walker, Escobar, Politte, Tam and Creek -- then a second bullpen lefty (Kershner or Wiggins) and the Rule 5 guy is 11. That means Justin Miller or Doug Linton. So far, Miller's winning the battle, and it remains to be seen whether he even has another option, so Linton is becoming odd man out from where I sit.

Continuing my "logic", if there's only room for 13 hitters, I will say it again -- goodbye Ken Huckaby, and thanks for the memories. So far, Tom Wilson has been the star -- the box score has "G Williams 1B" but that was T Wilson's RBI double that broke the game open. He crushes lefty pitching, and he's a capable backup at 1B. To those who scoffed at (and inexplicably, still doubt) my Greg Myers predictions, I say "nyah, nyah" -- only a great sliding catch by Phils rookie Marlon Byrd kept him from a perfect day at the plate, and his opposite-field double was a rope off the top of the wall.

So 13 position players, including just two C (Wilson & Myers) and utility men Bordick and Berg, leaves Werth-Colangelo -- the only two who can cover CF -- as the main event. There's no sign of Howie Clark after two games; I'm assuming he's sick, or hurt, but even at 100%, he's an extreme longshot. The job security felt by the regulars is making this a relaxed and confident group. I don't care about Grapefruit League standings, but it would be nice to take some momentum into that 20-game torture test to begin the real season.

It's hard to draw any conclusions from a spring training record; in fact it's generally the teams with the better records that go on to struggle during the regular season, since spring performance was driven by competition for jobs which are pretty much locked up on more talented teams.

I hope I'm able to see some of Russ Adams this weekend on TV (and maybe even next weekend if he lasts that long). It certainly appears that he's defensively sound and has some nice instincts in the field; getting that lead runner at third was a heads up play. The only question mark for him will be power; will he have enough to at least match Kenny Lofton or Chuck Knoblauch as more than a slap hitter. His last year in college certainly suggested that but my mind will be put at ease by seeing him hit a few off the wall and over the wall at Dunedin and likely New Haven this year.

We know Werth still has room to grow in terms of power, and it will be nice to see him turn his considerable bat speed into a higher batting average at Syracuse this year. I think he can be a .280+ hitter in the majors with good power and patience. Vernon Wells was promoted after showing less power and onbase ability in Syracuse for a couple of years running so I think it's inevitable that Werth will be an everyday player in Toronto in the second half.

It will be interesting to see if Majewski can stay consistent enough to convince management that he can handle the big leagues this year. If so, then the Jays I would think have to keep both Lopez (assuming he performs as expected) and Majewski. For Arnold, the walk and double weren't good but the three groundball outs boded well. We'll see where his numbers end up in another three weeks but he's slated to split time between AA and AAA this year anyway.

If Werth is good enough to play regularly in the major leagues right now, J.P. might be tempted to move Catalanotto to second and deal Hudson for pitching.

I like Hudson, and I don't want to see him traded. But I suspect that the Jays want to move him, and Cat could hold the fort until Adams or Rich is ready. Besides, Cat isn't really a right fielder.

Coach,

I'm a little surprised you haven't considered Wise for the 4th outfield spot. He is certainly the best centerfielder of the bench candidates and has career 4th and 5th outfielder written all over him.

Werth has much more upside, and I don't think JP will want to give him a utility role just yet (even if he does get 200-300 PA). A half-season of crushing the ball in Syracuse from Werth would mean that someone (perhaps Stewart) gets traded midseason, opening up a regular spot for Werth in RF and moving Cat to his natural position in left.

Wise didn't hit at all between 1997 and last year in Double-A, so I think it remains to be seen if he can repeat that success. He didn't hit at all in the majors, but some say that his wrist hadn't healed and that he wasn't able to swing the bat well as a result. If he really did have a lingering injury, then it makes last year look better. He was repeating a level, mind you, but his hitting was at least good... much better than his awful 2001.

Still, he's had 140 plate appearances in the bigs and shown nothing at all but some speed... no average, no power, no walks. If the foutrh outfielder is going to get some time, it would be nice if they could hit at least a little.

So how about this two-part plan:

1) Hudson straight up for Affeldt.
Cat moves in to play second, Werth plays right field and subs in centre. Aven makes the team as the 4th outfielder - Wise can't hit. To my mind, Affeldt hasn't shown any more promise than Hudson. Apparently KC disagrees, but JP may be able to make it work by include a middling Toronto prospect or two (and perhaps even pluck a "hidden" gem from the KC system in the process).

2) Escobar and Huck for Duckworth.
Politte steps up to closer and there's more room or more innings for the work-in-progress bullpen crew. As discussed in an earlier thread, Ed Wade places more value than he should on closers and catchers. To make this one work I'd be willing to eat a million or so of Escobar's salary, and again there's the angle of outsmarting a traditional GM by adding some prospects to the mix.

Think about the 2004 rotation:
Halladay
Duckworth
Arnold
Affeldt
Hendrickson
Miller

Yes, that's 6 names, and without considering whether Lidle or Sturtze or Walker may want to come back. Shades of the Yankees my friends, at less than the cost of Mussina alone... Sweet!

Craig,

Forget about Wise's 2000 - he was 22 and was coming of A ball (Rockford, I think, is the Midwest league, so that's not even high A). In 2002 he had 8 major league extra base hits in 112 at-bats - that's not NO power. That's some power.

Don't forget that he lost a year of development time, so as a 23 year old in AA he didn't do all that poorly (58/21 K/W rate and 27 EBH in 351 AB). He repeated at AA last year (49/29 K/W, 35 EBH in 340 AB) and improved his power, strikezone judgement and batting average - that's improvement across the board.

I think it's reasonable to look at his record and say that he is still improving.

He's 25 now, and has the skills to be a 4th outfielder, if he can hit .260. I'd say it's worth that roster spot to find out if he can do that.

Mike Colangelo is a year and a half older, has shown even less power. The only thing he does well is walk. I'd say he's of comparable overall skill level to Wise, so my question is: why wouldn't you give the younger guy a chance to see what he can do, and let the older guy play in AAA?

They think Wise can develop to be at least an average everyday ML centerfielder. He won't have a job in Toronto as long as Wells, Werth, Gross, Griffin, Stewart, and Catalanatto are around, but he could become trade bait. Outside of defence, I'm not sure there's anything he has a chance to be exceptional at but he has the tools to do a little bit of everything. Kind of like a Terrance Long with better defence. A good player as long as you don't pay him too much or expect too much from him.

http://economics.about.com
I don't want to cause any offence, but Escobar and Huckaby + cash for Duckworth has to be the most lopsided trade suggestion on the history of this site.

Given Escobar's salary, I don't think we could get more than a mediocre AA player. Huckaby couldn't make 3/4rds of the teams in MLB, even as a backup.

I think the biggest mistake JP made this off-season was offering arbitration to a mediocre player like Escobar. There's no way he's going to be able to unload him without picking up salary. I'd feel better about the Jays' future if they could keep *both* Rule V pitchers on the roster and I don't see that happening as long as Escobar is around.

Mike,

It's not all that outlandish, given Escobar's status as a closer. The key is not Escobar's real value, but his perceived value. If the Jays picked up half of Escobar's contract then there is a slight chance that Wade would go for it. That would be the case especially if Duckworth struggles in the first few months.

Jonny, I think Hudson for Affeldt may already have been offered and K.C. said no. If O-Dog starts the season playing like he can, one of two things will happen -- he'll endear himself to J.P. and be taken off the market, or his asking price will go up; maybe the Royals will blink.

If Jose Mesa turns out to be the biggest problem for the Phillies, they will certainly be looking for a Proven Closer. If the Jays are doing well, and Kelvim's converting a reasonable number of save opportunities, something as unbalanced as a trade for Duckworth could happen. The other markets for Escobar will be contending teams whose closers get hurt. Today, his value is less than it could be near the deadline, when a rival GM might panic.

I do agree with Mike that Huckaby has zero trade value. I predict he'll be waived at the end of March, and won't be claimed. That would let him report to Syracuse as a mentor for Kevin Cash and the young pitching staff. He's more valuable to the organization that way, and might have a future as a coach.

That bad, huh? Leafs-talk-show bad? More of a mismatch than J.P. vs. Ed Wade?

I'm not saying it's an easy steal... but I do think it's not that far off from being believable. Like Robert says, it's all about perceived value. Maybe all it takes to get it over the hump is a dodgy April from Mssrs. Duckworth and Mesa, entirely possible, and a toolsy AA prospect throw-in from Toronto, expendable.

We're talking about a pitcher who had a 5.41 ERA last year. And a 1.45 WHIP. And gave up 26 home runs. A number 4 starter. Versus a Proven Closer, and 10 years younger than Mesa to boot. Nope, I don't expect any of you intelligent baseball fans to fall for this line of "logic". But are we dealing with an intelligent baseball fan here?

I don't know that much about Ed Wade, but I do know he gave us our best reliever for a 40 year old LOOGY making 2.2 large and pitching 36 innings all year. And how about his comment that the Millwood trade "cost us some depth"? That's like saying that Alaska cost the US some cash. Or this line: "Two areas that it's hard to have depth in are closer and catching"... To see that blown out of the water in fine fashion, see Jordan's comments here.

Stranger things have happened. Speaking of Millwood-Estrada, Ed's starting pitching is looking 10 wins better than he could have imagined at the end of last season - that can't hurt the Blue Jay cause.

http://economics.about.com
Nah.. it wasn't Fan 590 Leafs Fan bad. As a Calgary Flames fan, I love listening to Leaf fans come on the radio and give their opinion about how Jarome Iginla for Jyrki Lumme would be a great trade for all involved.

Although Escobar is a "proven closer", I don't see much of a market for him given that he's at 4M. I do agree that if he goes, Philly is a likely destination. Or maybe the Cubbies if they're competitive. I can't see anyone in the AL being interested.

How about Escobar to the Giants for Jose Cruz Jr.? :)