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As previously noted, I will be in minor league camp this coming weekend along with my trusty camera.  I will be there to see the minor league players getting ready for their season which starts a week after the major leagues do.  While I am there there might be some questions that are looking for answers.  There was some discussion yesterday about Justin Jackson and where was he going to play this season?  I will ask about that this coming weekend.  But is there anything else you want me to ask about?

Last season I reported from minor league camp in Dunedin with reports like this one.

I can ask questions of the on field staff and coaches but remember these caveats:

I might not get a straight answer.  In some cases, decisions as to where a prospect will open the season might not have been made yet.

In general everyone will be having a good spring, it will take some interpretation of answers to read between the lines.

It can be tough to get to talk with the players.  The pitchers are often hanging about the diamonds if they are not slated to pitch that day but the position players play and then can disappear.  The minor league complex has four fields in a cloverleaf formation but one half of the complex is "out of bounds" to non Blue Jay personnel.  Position players access the dressing rooms through this out-of-bounds area and it can be hard to get to them.

 

My main objective this spring is to get to see the new players to the organization, guys like Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard; Deck McGuire; Adonis Cardona; Asher Wojciechowski; Kellen Sweeney; Dickie-Jo Thon; and Chris Hawkins.  And of course there are many other new players to see too.

 

So if you have any burning questions put them here and I will see what I can do.

Minor League Camp | 88 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
JC - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#231539) #

I look forward (as does everyone else, I'm sure) to your reports, Gerry. Always a good read.

This may be asking a lot, and such a thing may not even exist - but if you are able to post a full list of players at the camp, I would very much appreciate it.

earlweaverfan - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#231542) #
Better than talking to the position players would be your ability to talk to the coaches, to know whom they are watching most closely.

I would like to know most about what the coaches' hopes are for Dunedin and New Hampshire.  It seems to me that Lansing is set to be one of the strongest teams in the history of the Jays' farm system, what with a fabulous rotation and an outstanding outfield. 

Meanwhille, Las Vegas will have a much improved rotation and bullpen, and several genuine prospects like Stewart, Lawrie, Thames, Mastroianni, Loewen, and now, it seems, Cooper also qualifies.

Is there any meaningful chance that New Hampshire could contend, or will it just be a place to watch Hechavarria, Gose, McDade, d'Arnaud, Carreno and Alvarez perform amongst a bunch of otherwise ugly ducklings?

Dunedin seems even more dubious as a contender  to me, but what am I missing?

Many thanks for doing this, Gerry.  This is a gift.

Mike Green - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#231545) #
I guess that there are the usual questions about where players will start the season.  Gerry's website lists the projected rotation for Dunedin as McGuire, Alvarez, Jenkins, Asher Woj and Tepera, with Jiminez catching.  These projections are to some extent a best guess, but if they come true, Dunedin fans should be treated to some fine pitching.
92-93 - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#231547) #
I assumed after a full season at Dunedin that Alvarez was headed for AA.
bpoz - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#231548) #
I have been wondering what Mel Queen & Cito are doing for the organization this year. Semi-retired? Their pitching & hitting knowledge is vast.
A baseball diamond in good Florida weather seems like a nice way to spend a little time. Both have always impressed me. I really love M Queens analysis and suggestions for pitching improvements.
ayjackson - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#231549) #

I assumed Alvarez' spring would dictate where he starts the season.  He is certainly young enough to extend his stay at Dunedin for a few months, until he learns how to pitch a little better.  But his stuff is getting rave reviews, so maybe they do send him to AA out of the box. 

It would be a nice question, but if the player doesn't know, we won't be told.  Maybe ask about the slider - I heard it is less slurvy this spring.

FisherCat - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#231550) #

I know he's no longer a Jays' prospect, but a nice little snippet about Tiny Tim Collins in the Boston Globe's Sunday baseball notes.  It mentions that Collins is the favorite to become Soria's setup man in KC.

Gerry - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#231551) #

I don't think the Jays have been very excited about Henderson Alvarez's development as a "pitcher", as opposed to a thrower.  Reading between the lines I also think he might need to mature more.  On that basis, and based on some discussions with front office types, I projected him back at Dunedin.  But I agree he is on the bubble and could easily go to NH too.

The Jays do not promote players based on time at a level (e.g. David Cooper), they promote based on readiness.

China fan - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#231552) #
I'd love to know what the coaches are saying about David Cooper.  His offence seem to have improved since the middle of 2010.  Has he improved his swing, or his power, or his eye at the plate?  Is he defence improving?  I assume that he'll be in Las Vegas this season, but that's of course worth asking about too.
92-93 - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#231553) #
The reports out of spring were the exact opposite, Gerry. According to Wilner, "Farrell mentioned that one of the biggest positives of camp for him was Alvarez’ growth as a pitcher. His breaking ball has become much, much more effective and he’s also picked up a few miles an hour on his fastball, getting up to 97 at times. He’s a guy who has a very bright future ahead of him."
Gerry - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#231554) #

To clarify my comments abovefrom front office types were all from before spring training started.  I have received no comments yet from within spring training.

The comments from Farrell are nice but I put them with the "he is in the best shape of his life" comments.

The 2011 teams for Alvarez; Gose; Aaron Sanchez; McGuire; and Wojo are among the biggest issues to be settled in spring training.

CeeBee - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#231555) #
I look forward to your minor league reports with much anticipation. Have a great time in Florida and thanks in advance for all the news you will be reporting :)
TamRa - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#231556) #
This was my guess on the starting assignment of these pitchers - I'd be very happy if any of these were confirmed or corrected:

Jenkins and Alvarez open in Dunedin, with Jenkins moving up to AA if he does well in his first 8-10 starts and Alvarez possibly moving up about mid-season (assuming proper development)

McGuire and Woj at Lansing with one of them (probably McGuire) moving up when Jenkins is promoted.

Also curious, to a lesser extent, whether Gose opens at AA or spends 6 weeks or so in Dunedin first.



krose - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#231557) #
Happy to hear we'll get the Minor League Reports. One of my fav's.
uglyone - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#231558) #
I'm sure I read somewhere that Farrell ranked the top-5 starting pitching prospects like this after watching them this spring:

1) Stewart
2) Alvarez
3) McGuire
4) Carreno
5) Jenkins

could be wrong but I don't think so.
Mylegacy - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#231559) #
Gerry - while you're down there is their any chance you can - find/hook up with/whatever - someone/persons - who are Dunedin season's ticket holders to report semi-regularly on how they see the guys playing there doing - improving - regressing (as the case may be)?

Gerry I always enjoy your reports - just do your best and I'm sure we'll all be well chuffed.

Kelekin - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#231560) #
Alvarez really needs to step up his game.  Everyone knows he has the raw potential, but 2009 was the only year he really showed it.  So your analysis seems spot on - he really just seems like a thrower thus far. 

I'd love to know how Scott Campbell is looking - or really, "Brad Emaus Sr.". 
earlweaverfan - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#231561) #
It looks like there is a decent chance we get Emaus back.  He is not exactly making the most of his big chance with the Mets.  Maybe he would prefer to be playing for a team with a future.
Chuck - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#231562) #
It looks like there is a decent chance we get Emaus back.

Mets' starting 2B has to be one of the lowest bars in all of MLB right now. That was an opportunity squandered.
wacker - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#231563) #
Shouldn't be to hard, we were there last July at a home game and we counted 37 fans in the stands. They dnt draw real well.
wacker - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#231564) #
In regards to Mylegacy
92-93 - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#231565) #
As of now Emaus is still the Mets starting 2B, or at least the favourite to assume that mantle come Opening Day. Like the Blue Jays with Reyes, the Mets are likely to give him a look because he's out of options whereas the other candidate, Justin Turner, is not. And Daniel Murphy can't really play the "4".
Richard S.S. - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#231566) #
I looked at a site http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/03/major-league-baseball-uniform-players-contract.html that said minor league players make a minimum salary of $67,300.00 per year and it doesn't matter if you are in Rookie or in AAA.  (That's more money than my Father ever made or I ever made in a year, and we still bought houses.)  Draft picks turn down $0.5 millions to $3.0+ millions as a bonus because it's not enough.  That's crazy!
Original Ryan - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#231567) #
I don't know the exact circumstances of that particular player's contract, but the minimum salary in the minors varies depending on the minor league level and the years of experience the player has. I believe a first-year player in the low-minors has a maximum salary of $850/month, and only for the months that baseball is played. Unless a player is a bonus baby or a six-year minor league free agent, a minor league player generally doesn't make very much.
Gerry - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#231568) #

I think that $67,000 is likely for a player on the 40 man roster.  Lower valued players or lower level players get less.

A minor league free agent who is a good AAA player can make $60k - $90k per year, but until you are a free agent you essentially have to take what is offered.  You can understand why career minor leaguers keep coming back without a shot at the major leagues.  You can make more money playing six months of ball than you can, say, selling cars.

 

TamRa - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#231569) #
As of now Emaus is still the Mets starting 2B, or at least the favourite to assume that mantle come Opening Day. Like the Blue Jays with Reyes, the Mets are likely to give him a look because he's out of options whereas

To clarify that - lest it be repeated for truth - Emaus isn't out of options. Rather, the METS don't have options because they have to keep him in the majors as a Rule 5 pick.

If he were returned to the jays he could in fact besent down.

I'm sure you knew that but sometimes a shorthand comment like that leads to false impressions circulating.

I agree with the request for info re Scott Campbell by the way
VBF - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#231570) #

I believe a first-year player in the low-minors has a maximum salary of $850/month

$850 would be very good in Low-A. Then subtract clubhouse dues, and food money during homestands (per diem's only given on the road, hopefully the housing family program is strong), and various random expenses. It's not the easiest lifestyle.

sweat - Monday, March 21 2011 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#231571) #
I would imagine a lot of these guys are like CFL players or even short term NHLer's, they have some kind of other job in the off season. There are quite a few of these guys working in Oil & Gas here in Calgary.
92-93 - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 02:05 AM EDT (#231572) #
Thanks TamRa. I got lost in the point there, and meant to say that the Mets don't have the option of optioning him, not that he's out of options.
dan gordon - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 03:18 AM EDT (#231573) #
Emaus is batting .273 with a .400 on base %.  He has a steal without getting caught and hasn't made an error in the field.  He's hitting better than Wright, Reyes and Pagan, 3 of the Mets' best hitters.  Why exactly would they be even thinking of returning him?  It's very likely he's their 2B to open the season, and I think the chance the Jays will get their claws on him is tiny.
TamRa - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 03:45 AM EDT (#231575) #
I have no reason to think we'll get him back and I'm rooting for him to do well over there now that we have Lawrie there's not really an obvious place for him to be anything ore than Inglett 2.0 here.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#231576) #

Thanks in advance Gerry,I have a few questions if possible.

1) Which of the pitchers drafted in 2010 has shown the most growth in projectability during instructionals in terms of Increase in velocity, command & control or developing a new pitch.

2) Which 2010 drafted pitcher has had the most tinkering done to his mechanics.

3) The Blue Jays are emphasising the changeup - which pitching prospect in 2010 made the most progress in developing his changeup - not who has the best changeup.

4) Who are the power LHP in the Blue Jays system - I don't think we have any.  

Thanks. 

MatO - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 09:41 AM EDT (#231578) #
Not sure where else to put this but AA is supposed to be on with Jeff Blair for the full hour between 10-11 this morning on the FAN 590.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#231579) #
Blair's column in the Globe and Mail today focuses on Drabek's readiness for the Show- with a discussion of the relative importance of K rate and GB rate.  AA is quoted and refers to Clay Buchholz as a pitcher with good stuff who has succeeded at the major league level with great assistance from his GB rate. It isn't really the greatest example- Buchholz' minor league record was much, much better than Drabek's.  In particular, his K rate in the minors was over 10/9IP. 

In Drabek's case, the argument is not really sabermetric.  His stuff is good enough that he can be a successful pitcher with a K rate of about 6, provided he has good control of his pitches at all times.  In his case, it is a developing thing.
bpoz - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#231581) #
Thanks MatO about AA on the Fan.

So SP competition is still, 2 vacancies/3 candidates, this is my take when AA said that Drabek has not made the team yet. ie to be determined.
China fan - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#231582) #
Aaron Hill is in the lineup today against Cliff Lee and the Phillies, so he seems to be fully recovered.  The Jays lineup today will probably be their regular-season lineup against LHP at the start of the season anyway:  Davis CF, Escobar SS, Bautista DH, Lind 1B, Hill 2B, Encarnacion 3B, Snider LF, Rivera RF, Arencibia C.    (With Bautista of course normally at 3B and Encarnacion at DH, rather than the reverse.)  Looks like a good lineup, at least until Snider establishes himself comfortably.  Works for me.
China fan - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#231583) #

Wilner is predicting that the regular lineup vs RHP will be the same, except with Snider and Encarnacion flip-flopping, so that Snider is batting 6th and EE 7th.

uglyone - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#231584) #
Can anyone explain to me why Hill is hitting any higher than 8th in this lineup?

On another note - Griffin reports that Davis' spring has convinced Farrell that he can leadoff against both LHP and RHP, though I'm sure Pods' injury plays a part in convincing him of that.
Chuck - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#231586) #
Davis CF, Escobar SS, Bautista DH, Lind 1B, Hill 2B, Encarnacion 3B, Snider LF, Rivera RF, Arencibia C

Lind in the 4-hole stands out. He was woeful against LHP in 2010: 135/180/183. For his career, his numbers against lefties make him look like a weak-hitting catcher: 251/307/387.
Jonny German - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#231590) #
Chuck makes a good point - even in his outstanding 2009 Lind's OPS against lefties was 200 points lower than against righties, 780 to 992.

I'm also with the uglyone on Hill - he was bad enough in 2010 that he should have to earn every notch above 8th in the lineup.

I'm fine with Davis as full time leadoff hitter until (if) Podsednik is healthy... but I'll cringe every time Rajai has a day off and Patterson fills in there.
China fan - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#231591) #
On Lind and Hill:  if they hit as badly in 2011 as they did in 2010, they don't deserve to be in the 4th and 5th slots.  I assume that Farrell's thinking is this:  "Forget about 2010, forget about their career numbers (which were badly deflated by their 2010 numbers), we have faith that they can return to something closer to their 2009 numbers (or at least mid-way between 2009 and 2010), and -- more importantly -- it's their job to do so."  As long as Lind and Hill are in the starting lineup, it is their job to hit a lot better than 2010 and it is their job to be worthy of the number 4 and 5 slots in the lineup.  Farrell has confidence that they can do so, and so that's where he is putting them in the lineup.  It's psychological more than sabremetrical.  (Gaston is not the only manager who plays the psychological confidence game.)  Within a couple months, we'll see whether Farrell was right or wrong to put his faith in those two.  I'm still optimistic.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#231592) #
My problem with Lind in the cleanup hole is that his career line is .271/.322/.473.  You do not want a player with a .322 career on-base percentage batting cleanup.  Lind has to hit like he did at his best rather than at his career norms for him to be a viable cleanup hitter.



Ron - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#231593) #
Make sure you have a tissue when you read this story about Chad Cordero and his family.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/chad-cordero-tries-to-hold-life-career-together-after-losing-daughter-to-sids/2011/03/21/ABomv88_singlePage.html


92-93 - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#231597) #

For his career, his numbers against lefties make him look like a weak-hitting catcher: 251/307/387.

That's a tad harsh. Ryan Howard has hit .230/.307/.431 vs. LHP the last 3 years. Carl Crawford, the crown jewel of this year's FA class, has hit .259/.312/.372 over the same time frame. Heard this : LHB struggle vs. LHP, even the best of em. If Lind is pounding RHP you won't even notice that his OPS vs. LHP is 200+ points lower.

You do not want a player with a .322 career on-base percentage batting cleanup.

When he's the best option on the team, you sure do. Unless you prefer Yunel Escobar batting there, Lind is the best option behind Bautista. If your point is that Lind should be 3 and Bautista should be 4, well then you're really nitpicking.

Jonny German - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#231598) #
When he's the best option on the team, you sure do. Unless you prefer Yunel Escobar batting there, Lind is the best option behind Bautista.

Against righties, sure, Lind is the safest bet for #4. Against lefties I will be very surprised if he out-hits Encarsmashion.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#231599) #
After Bautista, there aren't a lot of obviously better options. Encarnacion is probably the best against LHP, and he's been given away by two teams since the end of last season. Even if you flip Lind & Encarnacion, you've still got a bunch of guys with a pretty unimpressive track record.

Farrell's said he prefers a consistent lineup, and there's obviously an element of "Forget about 2010, we know you can do it" to the lineup positions of Lind & Hill. It's possible that outweighs the marginal value of dropping one or both in the lineup.

And really, if they repeat their 700-ish OPS 2010 seasons, it doesn't matter where they hit - it'll be tough for the team to score runs with two black holes in the lineup. They might not even finish the year with the Jays, let alone in a key spot in the lineup.
92-93 - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#231600) #
Everybody in baseball prefers a consistent lineup. As much as you might want Lind to bat 4th vs. RHP and 9th vs. LHP, that just isn't feasible.
rtcaino - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#231601) #
As much as you might want Lind to bat 4th vs. RHP and 9th vs. LHP, that just isn't feasible.

Yes, I can imagine the very real and dire consequences of such a lineup decision... ahem.
rtcaino - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#231602) #
Not sure where else to put this but AA is supposed to be on with Jeff Blair for the full hour between 10-11 this morning on the FAN 590.

I enjoyed the interview, thanks for mentioning!

In the interview, AA indicated that Gose would be starting the season in New Hampshire.
greenfrog - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#231603) #
According to the April 4 issue of ESPN The Magazine (previewed by Keith Law in his Insider column), the Jays have the toughest 2011 schedule in baseball, with their average opponent having an expected winning percentage of .522. The Cards have the easiest, at .484. Based on a hypothetical swap of the Jays' and Cards' schedules, Law determined that the Jays would be the slight favourite to win the NL Central (with a projected 86-76 record).

Of course, a lot can change over the course of a season, and games are still won and lost on the field, but still...it would be nice if the Jays could catch a bit of a break in the scheduling dept.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, March 22 2011 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#231604) #
^^^^^ Baseball Think Factory has a discussion on that article:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/espn_szymborski_blue_jays_would_win_nl_central_insider/


Of course, a lot can change over the course of a season, and games are still won and lost on the field, but still...it would be nice if the Jays could catch a bit of a break in the scheduling dept.

Unfortunately, I don't know if that'll ever happen unless or until there's a cap, the sched's rebalanced, or there's some kind of realignment.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#231607) #
I listened to the AA interview with Jeff Blair, from yesterday, this morning.  He did say Gose was going to New Hampshire.  He said they had been debating between Dunedin and New Hampshire but they decided to send him to the Fisher Cats because his batting has shown a lot of improvement this spring and because he has a good relationship with Justin Mashore, the New Hampshire hitting coach, who was the hitting coach in Dunedin last season.
MatO - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#231610) #
John Farrell is supposed to be on Jeff Blair's show in the "11 o'clock hour".  I'm not sure if that means the full hour or just sometime in the hour.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#231612) #
Just a couple of comments on the batting order discussion:

1) while I have little faith in Hill, I have plenty of faith in Lind because not only are his '10 splits nearly impossible to repeat, but even though it's only ST, he has been showing his classic opposite field gap power all spring, even against top lefties like Lee. That's extremely encouraging.

2) I don't think anyone here would argue with the fact that Bautista, Lind, and Snider are easily our three hitters with the most upside - and the three guys we have with the potential to be .900+ops legit top tier middle of the order hiters. Does anyone really disagree that in a best case scenario, it's these three that "should" be the 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup? and, based on their skillsets and handedness, the ideal order (if all three are having "good" seasons) would be 3) Snider 4) Bautista 5) Lind?
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#231613) #
Personally, I'd rather see Snider in the 2 slot and Lind in the 5 slot, for two reasons. The 2nd spot in the order is actually more important than the 3rd spot, and also it would create more separation between the 2 left-handed bats in the lineup, which would make it harder for opposing managers to use left-handed relief specialists. 

It is true that batting order decisions are not likely to be terribly significant, perhaps on the order of  1/2-1 win per season.

China fan - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#231615) #

Here's some big news, just tweeted by Wilner:   Morrow will open the season on the DL with forearm inflammation.   So it appears that Litsch, Drabek and Reyes will all get jobs in the rotation to open the season.

ayjackson - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#231618) #

So if your best hitter is hitting cleanup, and the 1-2 guys are high on-base guys, I'd think you want your number three guy to be a speedster or flyball hitter since there's a good chance he's coming to bat in the first with one out and a man on base (you try to avoid the double play).

Based on that, maybe Hill or Davis as a #3?

Escobar-Snider-Hill/Davis-Bautista-Lind as the top 5?

Magpie - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#231623) #
I'd think you want your number three guy to be a speedster

Actually, I always thought the fast guys should be hitting hitting sixth or seventh, in front of the singles hitters. I never saw the point of putting the fast guys in front of the sluggers. You don't need speed to score when Bautista goes deep. You just need to be there.

Of course, now that singles hitters have mostly vanished from the game and everyone is a slugger, batting order matters even less than it ever did, which was never very much to start with...
MatO - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#231626) #
Jays website confirms that Morrow goes on the DL.  I just hope the forearm strain is not just a symptom of something worse.  So much for having too much pitching.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#231628) #
Personally, I might take a cynical view of Morrow going to the DL possibly on a mostly precautionary basis.  The club may want to limit Morrow's innings anyway and perhaps doesn't really have visions of competing in 2011.  This move allows them to comfortably start the season with Reyes in the rotation.  I hope for Morrow's sake that this is right.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#231629) #

Forbes is out with it's annual report on the value of baseball clubs.  The Yankees are ahead of the field.  The Blue Jays trail in 27th spot.  Forbes puts a value of $337m on the team, an increase of 3% over last year.

Revenue for the Blue Jays was estimated at $168m and operating profits were $3.6m.  Both of those numbers should increase in 2011 based on an attendance boost in 2011 from a good performance by the team in 2010 and a lower payroll in 2011.

85bluejay - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#231630) #
Of course, revenue is hampered by the tv property staying inhouse with a Rogers property - this year all 162 games are on sportnet, providing cheap programming.
85bluejay - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#231631) #
I also tend to take the cynical view of Mike Green, that the Morrow DL stint is precautionary - they are limiting his innings this year - so,this likely will not change the # of innings he throws this year unless it's more serious while allowing them to get a look at Litsch/Drabek/Reyes. 
China fan - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#231632) #

Mike, that's an astute comment about the Morrow injury.  The Jays are being extra-cautious with the health of all of their players, since it's a rebuilding season anyway.  Anthopolous said today that Morrow wouldn't be on the DL if it was a playoff game.  Morrow doesn't sound happy about being on the DL -- he says it's a minor injury and he could easily play through it. 

The next question is what this means for the bullpen, since Reyes will open the season in the rotation.  It depends if Dotel is ready by opening day.  If Dotel is ready, there won't be a vacancy in the bullpen.  (Janssen and Villanueva get the final two spots in the bullpen.)  But if Dotel isn't ready, it opens the door for Rzepczynski to get a bullpen slot.  The other possible candidates, although they are longshots, might be Rommie Lewis or Scott Richmond.

Mike Green - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#231633) #
Magpie, the home run is becoming less important as a weapon.  Here are the home run/PA rates over the last 50 years at decade's turn:

Year HR/PA
2010 .025
2000 .030
1990 .021
1980 .019
1970 .023
1960 .022

Bearing in mind the introduction of the DH rule in 1973, HR rates in 2010 were a lot closer to those in 1970 than those in 2000.  The game we see on the field does not quite reflect this yet, but some of the moves made this off-season (including some of Anthopoulos' moves) suggest a move in this direction.
92-93 - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#231637) #
Wouldn't the cynical view be - "Any forearm strain is bad news, Morrow's 2011 is cooked and his upward trend is over"? I'm reading MG's view as optimistic.
Kelekin - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#231639) #
While I'd like to see Rzep get a bullpen slot, I can't imagine they're going to give him one over Purcey, even though I believe Rzep is the better pitcher (and Purcey is severely overrated).
China fan - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#231641) #

Purcey is virtually guaranteed a job in the Jays bullpen.  He's out of options and can't be demoted without exposing him to the near-certain risk of losing him.  If Zep gets a job in the bullpen, it would be in addition to Purcey.   If Dotel is not ready for opening day, there would be room for both Purcey and Zep, since Reyes will be in the rotation.  Under that scenario, the bullpen would be:  Rauch (closer), Frasor, Camp, Purcey, Janssen, Villanueva, Zep.

Personally, I'd prefer to see Zep getting steady work in Las Vegas as a starter, rather than being the 7th man in the bullpen.  If he's in the majors, he might get to pitch an inning every 5 days, which is not ideal for a young developing pitcher who has the potential to be a major-league starter.   But the Jays might have decided that Zep's stuff will play better in the bullpen.  I would defer to their judgment.

dan gordon - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#231642) #

Zaun was just describing Morrow's injury on the TV broadcast.  The problem is in the muscle in the forearm, not in the tendon, which is great news.  If a pitcher starts to get inflammation in the tendon in the elbow, that can be the start down the road to Tommy John surgery.  Morrow will not throw for 5 days, and they expect he will be fine.  Should miss one or two starts.

In a way this is a good opportunity for the Jays to continue to audition the other starting candidates and see what they have.  Same for the Francisco injury and the crowded bullpen.

Lawrie sent to LV today.   Will be interesting to see how he fares in that hitters' paradise.

uglyone - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#231643) #
I don't think the Jays would cry too much about losing Purcey, especially with yet another dissappointing spring of no improvement.

And I'm sure they view Rzep as a much better reliever than Purcey already.
Magpie - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#231646) #
I'm sure they view Rzep as a much better reliever than Purcey already.

Hmmm. Not sure I see why. One guy has actually been an effective reliever in the majors. The other hasn't - and it's not a role that agrees with everyone's arm, or skill set - but he atill has a chance to be an effective starter in the majors. If they're already thinking of Rzepczynski as a a reliever... seems odd.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#231648) #
Purcey and Zep are actually pretty similar: Both have K rates around 8 per 9, and walk 4 per 9. Zep's been a bit better to this point, but control is a pretty clear weakness for both of them.

Purcey's out of options, so he'll have to implode in order for Zep to take his place. Not that it's necessarily either/or - Purcey looks like a short reliever, while Zep still has value in long relief and as an emergency starter.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 23 2011 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#231649) #
Rzep's already had a much better major league career at age 25 than Purcey has had by age 29. Rzep has been far better at the MLB level, starting and relief, and that advantage sretches all the way back through the minors too.

Humour me with the ridiculous Rzep relief split here just to complete the comparison:

As starter:

Purcey (29): 113.0ip, 7.7k/9, 4.7bb/9, 1.59whip, 5.81era, 4.83fip, 5.03xfip
Rzep (25): 124.0ip, 8.3k/9, 4.4bb/9, 1.47whip, 4.35era, 4.39fip, 4.03xfip

As reliever:

Purcey (29): 34.0ip, 8.5k/9, 4.0bb/9, 1.21whip, 3.71era, 3.76fip, 4.57xfip
Rzep (25): 1.0ip, 27.0k/9, 0.0bb/9, 1.00whip, 0.00era, 0.08fip, 0.00xfip

saying the two are comparable is pretty far off, to be honest.



This spring may have been the final straw for Purcey. He had a spot handed to him on a platter and he crapped all over it. He did everything in his power to lose that spot, and he might have just done that - right now IMO the only thing that'll save him are the injuries to FF and Dotel.
China fan - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#231658) #

....Rzep has been far better at the MLB level, starting and relief.....

The comparison doesn't make sense.  Everyone knows that Purcey was a failure as a starter.  That doesn't prove that he can't be a good reliever.  Lots of good relievers, including Scott Downs on this same ballclub, were failed starters in the past.  So it's absolutely pointless to haul out Purcey's stats as a starter and try to use them for a comparison with Rzepczynski.   Zep himself has never established himself as a major-league starter, so he's in the same category as Purcey:  a pitcher who couldn't win a rotation job and is now trying to establish himself as a reliever.  It's equally obvious that you can't compare their MLB stats as a reliever, since Zep has so few innings as a major-league reliever.

The only thing that you can say is this:  Purcey had a pretty good half-season in the bullpen, in his first attempt.  Zep has virtually no experience as a reliever in the major leagues, so Purcey is ahead of him, by any measure.  Purcey has accomplished something as a major-league reliever and Zep has accomplished nothing.

As for Purcey's poor performance in spring training this year:  it might mean something, or it might mean nothing.  He's still very early in his bullpen career, and a few innings in spring training can't really be used to judge him.  We all know that spring training stats aren't necessarily the best way to judge a pitcher.

If you want to predict, based on minor-league numbers and spring training, that Zep will be a better reliever than Purcey -- that's fine, you're entitled to your predictions.  But don't try to base it on major-league stats.  Base it on your hunches and your intuition and the minor-league stats, for whatever they are worth.

uglyone - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#231659) #
well I guess you're entitled to tell me that I'm not "allowed" to use his major league numbers to support my predictions, but that's kind of a ridiculous thing to say, to be honest. you don't just ignore a pitcher's starting numbers (when for both they make up almost their entire career's worth of innings) when looking to what he might do as a reliever.

I'm fairly certain that Farrell has Rzep slotted above Purcey already, and I have zero doubt that Rzep will be a much better reliever than Purcey if used in that role.

And I'm not sure Purcey's epic career of 34 mediocre relief innings by age 29 is enough to keep his roster spot once this team is healthy.
ayjackson - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#231660) #

I seriously doubt that Rzep and Purcey are competing for a spot in the bullpen.  Despite his presence there currently, I'd be surprised to see Rzep anywhere but starting at Vegas in a couple of weeks (unless injuries necessitate his spot in the bullpen).

Purcey is up against Carlson for the lefty role in the pen.  They mentioned on the broadcast last night that the Jays had been receiving a lot of calls about his availability (along with Reyes).

He's 29, and hasn't shown much of anything (save a very small sample of low leverage relief innings last year).  I wouldn't send Jansen or Villaneuva to the minors because Purcey was out of options.  He hasn't shown enough to waste what those two have shown.

bpoz - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#231661) #
Purcuy is out of options because he had to be added to the 40 man roster after the 2007 season or be exposed to the rule 5 draft. The further 2008 minor league seasoning burned his 1st option before an OK 2008 ML stint.. The 2009 & 2010 options were also used up, the 2009 because I believe his pitcher VS hitters adjustments were not successful enough. The 2010 conversion to reliever worked fine, he did well considering the long layoffs between outings. If he makes this team, then he has to pitch. IMO if he gets as little work as M Valdez & J Accardo did last year he won't develop. I believe that he is using ST for refining his 2nd & 3rd pitch.
ayjackson - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#231662) #

Is someone suggesting Purcey isn't out of options?  I don't think so.

Matthew E - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#231665) #
Lots of good relievers, including Scott Downs on this same ballclub, were failed starters in the past.

Slight digression: I don't think I'd count Downs as a failed starter. The first year the Jays used him in the rotation, he did pretty well. Didn't he lead the team in strikeout rate or something? Not as well the second time around, but with a smaller opportunity. For quite a while I thought the Jays should move him back to the rotation; I only stopped thinking about it because it became so obvious that they weren't going to do it.
Ryan Day - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#231669) #
Downs was a pretty decent starter in 2005, though not so much for the rest of his career. And he was probably a much better reliever than anyone would have expected - prior to signing with the Jays, he had 5.8 k/9, 3.6 bb/9, and a whole bunch of hits & homers. That he turned into a consistently excellent reliever was probably a surprise for everyone.

But even aside from the great success stories like Downs, there are always guys who look like AAA filler in the fall, and go on to solid performances the next year. I don't understand the eagerness of some people to dump a player that still has some potential. I remember when plenty of people said Jose Bautista should be non-tendered. (I'm pretty sure I was one of them)

I mean, sure, David Purcey might never be able to find the strike zone consistently. But if he does, the Jays might end up with a very good reliever. For now, he's cheap, sometimes effective, and you can either give him a chance or lose him forever. Given the ridiculous volatility in pitching performances, I don't see the harm in sticking him in the back of the pen for a few months. Rzepczynski isn't going to go bad before July.
Gerry - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#231670) #

From Baseball America's transactions:

Toronto Blue Jays
Signed: 
OF Eli Boike (NDFA—Michigan State)
Released: RHP Kyle Ginley, RHP Matt Morgal, RHP Jamie Vermilyea, RHP Josh Wells, LHP Juan Hernandez, 2B Jon Del Campo, OF Concepcion Rodriguez

 

Kyle Ginley and Josh Wells are two pitchers who never came back from injuries.  Jamie Vermilyea had a very brief second tour with the Jays.  The others were more organization guys.

Mike Green - Thursday, March 24 2011 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#231671) #
Boike is out of Michigan State University in East Lansing. I guess the club had quite a few informal looks at him over the last few years. He's 23 years old.
Thomas - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#231673) #
Morgal was picked in the first 15 or 20 rounds in 2009, I think. It's surprising and clearly a sign of a miss on a pick if the team thinks it's best to give up on them after a year and half. However, he was pitching in relief and struggling with his control and I'm sure the front office decided the odds of Morgal having future success were small before they let him go. Anthopolous has a good record with the farm, but Morgal looks like he'll go down as a miss (I don't think any of the others were as recent draft picks and had advanced further than he did).
Thomas - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 03:31 AM EDT (#231674) #
I looked it up and Morgal was a 13th round pick in 2009. Does anyone know if he suffered an injury (it doesn't seem like it based on his IP total) or if he just never showed the talent that led the team to draft him?
Lugnut Fan - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 07:40 AM EDT (#231677) #
You're absolutely right about Boike Mike.  The Lugnuts play an exhibition against Michigan State every year, so the organization has had a chance to see him more than one time.
TamRa - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#231679) #
RE the Purcey/Zep conversation -

I'm in the camp that believes that Farrell now believes in Zep enough to use him as his primary reliever. I don't think Purcey's bad spring has played him onto the waiver wire, especially with Carlson not heard from since the report he was hurting, but I wouldn't be surprised if AA is keeping his contacts fresh with whatever teams may have inquired on him.

As much as I see the argument that Zep's ceiling is as a fairly good (at least) starter, if he's going to stay with the Blue Jays, as opposed to being traded, then being the next Scott Downs is a pretty valuable thing too. If they are not looking to deal him then he has more utility to the organization over the next few years in that role because it seems unlikely he's going to stay ahead of Stewart on the depth chart and (to say nothing of the others coming up the chain) there are only so many starting pitcher jobs in the majors.

bpoz - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#231683) #
On the Jeff Blair show AA said that the opening day roster can change quickly. He mentioned M Valdez, J Accardo & D Eveland from last year. Morrow & Francisco returning in April are 2 changes.

Farrell has spoken positively about Zep's pen results, I have not heard any of his comments about Purcey or simply cannot recall them. The 4-6 unknown Opening day roster spots should be cleared up soon. I am not sure how he will resolve any conflict, if one exists between his goal as Manager to win and his Player Development history ie the no options vs available options effect.
Also the 2011 goal is not exclusively to win that will have an effect.
Gerry - Friday, March 25 2011 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#231692) #

I am just back from a fun day at minor league camp.  I will try and file something later tonight but I have to head to dinner now.  A few tid-bits:

Tomorrows starter for the big leaguers........with Morrow being injured........Drew Hutchison.

There were three A level games at the complex today, tomorrow will be AAA and AA.

The three starting pitchers today were Asher Woj; Justin Nicolino; and Michell Taylor.

No Aaron Hill at minor league complex today but AA; Tony LaCava; Pat Tabler;  Buck Martinez; and George Bell were there taking in the action.

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