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Playing out the string...

Let's just get it over with.


Mon 23 Sep. -  Shepherd (0-0, 4.91) vs Buchholz (1-5, 6.48)
Tue 24 Sep. -  Bundy (6-14, 4.89) vs Kay (1-0, 5.79)
Wed 25 Sep. - Ynoa (1-9, 5.65) vs Waguespack (4-5, 4.75)

Well, got to play 'em. Might as well win 'em.
Baltimore at Toronto, 23-25 September | 147 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#381785) #
97 losses is ok with me. I would like to win 1 or 2 against TB.

I really want NYY to be knocked out in the 1st round. Would make my season.
grjas - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#381789) #
After A couple of mediocre seasons, alumnus Liam Hendricks is having a stunning season including 118 strikeouts in 72 innings. The new Wizard of Aus.
scottt - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#381790) #
I really don't want to sweep Baltimore here.
Drury will play shortstop. I'm hopeful that he goes 0-for with a couple of plays not made.

BillyMack gets another start. I suppose hitting a couple of homeruns will keep you in the lineup.
This isn't Yankees stadium, though.

Grichuk will DH and Davis will captain the otherwise porous outfield.

hypobole - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#381791) #
Drury ...with a couple of plays not made.

That already happened in the last series. He was hoping to catch "Come from Away" and "The Lion King", but didn't make either one.
dan gordon - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#381792) #
Vladdy is in need of some serious baserunning lessons. That kind of mistake is going to be costly when the games matter. He seems to greatly overestimate his speed. On the other hand, maybe it's just me, but he looks like he's lost some weight compared to when he was fist called up.
Magpie - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#381793) #
I really don't want to sweep Baltimore here.

Clay Buchholz is here to help.

Ned Yost has made it official, and I was actually a little surprised to discover he's the all-time winningest Royals manager. He did win a World Series but he's almost 100 games below .500. Well, if they let you stick around for ten years anyway, I guess you can win 744 games.

Naturally I had to check out the leaders for each team and I was shocked to discover that no Cleveland manager, in 120 years, has even come close to matching Yost's total in KC.

Meanwhile the Yankees have four men who've managed the Bombers to more than 1,000 wins.
Magpie - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#381794) #
Other odds and ends from my tour of franchise managers...

Sparky Anderson is the only man who is the leader for two teams...

Four men have managed more than 2,000 wins for one team: Connie Mack, John McGraw, Walter Alston, Bobby Cox.

Twenty-two other men have managed more than 1,000 wins for one team. But no one has managed 1,000 wins for two teams. Bruce Bochy comes the closest. He had 1,050 wins with the Giants, behind McGraw. And his 951 wins is the San Diego record.

Tony LaRussa is the all-time Cardinals leader (1,408) and the all-time Oakland leader (798) although that remains the Connie Mack franchise...

Bucky Harris (1,336) leads the Senators/Twins franchise. Since moving to Minnesota, it's Tom Kelly (1,140). Ron Gardenhire also cleared 1,000 wins.

The Cubs leader is Cap Anson (1,282), whose work was all done in the 19th century. If it's not him, it's Charlie Grimm.

Aside from Connie Mack, the AL manager with the most wins with one team is... Mike Scioscia (1,650).

I'm amazed that the name Al Lopez, who managed a long time and never did anything but win (his worst team, in 15 full seasons, played .525 ball), shows up ... nowhere.
Chuck - Monday, September 23 2019 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#381795) #
Can you imagine paying money to see this Orioles team? Egad.
Vulg - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#381796) #
Alford follows up an impressive leadoff AB in the 13th where he works the count and beats out a routine grounder to 3rd with a game winning HR in the 15th.

What does this kid have to do to earn some regular reps ahead of one of the Jays sub-300 OBP outfielders?
dan gordon - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#381797) #
Gurriel out for the season with surgery to remove his appendix.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:00 AM EDT (#381798) #
I would be pretty disappointed if the Jays did not give Alford a shot in CF next season (assuming they donít acquire a CF from outside the org). Iím not sure Alford will ever hit enough to be a big league regular but if thereís enough in the bat to be in the 80-90 wRC+ range, then he might be able to pull off some decent value at CF. It really depends on how much weight you want to put on his pre-2017 prospect status. Heís certainly fallen off pretty hard since then. Although with a 26 man roster next season heís probably going to make the team regardless.
Glevin - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#381799) #
Alford is 25 YO and had a 95 WRC+ in AAA with a 30% k rate and thatís with a fortunate .365 BABIP as well. He has 749 PAs in AAA with a .700 OPS. Both Fisher and McKinney have been significantly better than him in AAA. the idea that Alford deserves a shot to play regularly is silly. If you want a shot, play better. Like Pompey, you shouldnít be handed spots because you were a great prospect a few years ago. Unlike Pompey, I hope the Jays try to hang on to Alford for another year but Iím not very hopeful.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#381800) #
The issue is both Fisher and McKinney are not good defensive players practically anywhere in the outfield. Even if you think they have upside with the bat (and I think Fisher has some), there's still the issue of finding a spot for them to play regularly where they aren't bleeding defensive value. The only legit CF options on the 40 man roster are Alford and Davis. If the Jays are going to find a long-term CF option from outside the org, then that's fine. But if they are going to stick with what they have, then Alford (or Davis) are really the only CF options that make any sense, especially since none of Teoscar/Fisher/McKinney can likely handle RF regularly either (if Grichuk were to move to CF).

For me it's not so much expecting anything from Alford, it's that as a CF, he's the only fringe MLB lottery ticket on the current roster that has any chance of sticking there.
Thomas - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#381801) #
I would be pretty disappointed if the Jays did not give Alford a shot in CF next season (assuming they donít acquire a CF from outside the org).

Get ready to be disappointed. Presumably, if the Jays intended to do that, Alford would have started more than once in September.

Vulg - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#381802) #
Alford is 25 YO and had a 95 WRC+ in AAA with a 30% k rate and thatís with a fortunate .365 BABIP as well. He has 749 PAs in AAA with a .700 OPS. Both Fisher and McKinney have been significantly better than him in AAA. the idea that Alford deserves a shot to play regularly is silly. If you want a shot, play better. Like Pompey, you shouldnít be handed spots because you were a great prospect a few years ago. Unlike Pompey, I hope the Jays try to hang on to Alford for another year but Iím not very hopeful.

Conversely, neither Fisher nor McKinney has shown in their MLB sample that they should be immune to competition. AAA stats are fine and odds are the relative success players achieve prior to the bigs will translate correspondingly, but not always. Factor in Alford's defense and an audition should be a no brainer.

Nobody is saying to "hand him a spot", but maybe give him a run of 150-200 ABs. Fisher has been trash in his 360 ABs and McKinney not much better in his 357.
Michael - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 04:25 AM EDT (#381803) #
While Vlad did have one baserunning blunder, it seems he did hustle on a ground ball that led to a misplay and key run scoring. Also, I think I'd find a roster spot for that Biggio guy. While Vlad's been a bit under the (incredibly high) expectations this season, the other key rookies have out performed and I think in totality the development is looking positive.
scottt - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 06:51 AM EDT (#381804) #
They wasted a Buchholz start and got a win in an empty stadium.
The only people who will remember this are the ones who will be upset when Alford is let go.

In the meanwhile, Jays are 1 game behind the Pirates and 2 behind Seattle.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#381805) #
I'd say that the Jays need to sign a decent centerfielder who is a free agent or trade for one. Grichuk and Gurriel are set in the corner spots and Teoscar fits as the fourth outfielder and DH. Davis or Alford might make the team next year as backup centerfielder. Fisher will be given a chance just because the front office traded for him and they want him to succeed.
scottt - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#381806) #
Cashman spat in Stroman's eye.

We were interested in Stroman but we didn't think he would be a difference-maker. We felt he would be in our bullpen in the postseason.

Also said the Jays were insisting on Clint Frazier.

Dodged a bullet there.
scottt - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#381807) #
If you want to go nuts, Springer is a free agent after next year.
Mookie Betts too.

2/3 of the starting lineup is set. It's mostly about pitching now.

bpoz - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#381808) #
I don't know why Cashman or any GM would insult players. It is very foolish. I am glad that Atkins and the org only say good things about their players even though they know that their players have flaws.
rpriske - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#381809) #
I would be pretty disappointed if the Jays did not give Alford a shot in CF next season (assuming they donít acquire a CF from outside the org).

I would be pretty disappointed if they DID.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#381810) #
"I would be pretty disappointed if they DID."

If they didn't try to acquire a CF (or RF with Grichuk sliding over) at all this winter because they wanted to hand the spot to Alford, then I would agree. But if the assumption is they are sticking with what they have, and Alford isn't playing because they want to shoehorn Hernandez in CF or Fisher in RF, etc, etc, then yes I would be disappointed.

Like I said, I'm not convinced Alford can hit MLB pitching enough to be a regular, but it seems equally as likely (if not more) that Hernandez and McKinney are not going to hit enough to compensate for their lack of defensive value, and Fisher has looked awful so far despite interesting tools. There is no right answer internally, but if nothing changes in the OF situation, then stick Alford there and hope he turns into something resembling Kevin Pillar.
bpoz - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#381811) #
At the July trade deadline we traded basically all tradable good pitchers like Stroman, Phelps and Hudson. The replacement pitchers have had difficulty in many cases. Zeuch and Kay have done well enough. And Font. So basically this became a very weak pitching staff, which was expected.

Trading Sogard and the DFA of Galvis was ok because of the addition and success of Biggio and Bichette.

This is part of the rebuilding strategy which results in a weaker ML team after the trade deadline.

The off season as always will prioritize improving the overall organizations pitching. I believe Atkins deals with everything so he probably deals with the CF issue as well.

I don't expect any "good" additions from outside the organization this off season. But often I am wrong. I expect waiver additions and mediocre FA signings. I am looking forward to this because I find this desperate searching interesting. I also expect a few players with questionable value to be added from teams that have surpluses and want to clear 40 man space and not pay their salary. Grichuk, Solarte, Thornton, Richard and A Diaz are good examples to me. Pitchers coming off injuries like Phelps and prospects like Merryweather should be easy to acquire.

What happens with Giles will be interesting.

85bluejay - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#381812) #
Dammit Baltimore. can't you do anything right!
rpriske - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#381813) #
But if the assumption is they are sticking with what they have,
That is where I will  e disappointed.

I see four priorities for the off-season for the Blue Jays:

1. Get a solid starting pitcher.
2. Get another one.
3. Centre field
4. First base.

Alford is not the answer in CF... but neither is anyone else they currently have.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#381814) #
Boy there is a lot of dislike of Alford here - it was just pre-2017 that he was #3 behind Bo & Vlad, and 2015 he was #1 ahead of Vlad and everyone else.

Did he have injury issues or something recently? I keep thinking he did. That would explain a lot. His peak is 112 minor league games in a season (2018) and just 80 this year. If healthy he might still become a solid player. Remember, his first few years he was still playing football thus hasn't had as much baseball training as most do at his age. I see tons of potential there still. Speed, power, defense, appears to be a strong teammate given how everyone they interviewed said they were excited for him.

Right now for CF we have a choice of Davis (entering age 28 season), McKinney (meh), Hernandez (oh god no on defense, unlikely to improve at this stage with his league average bat), Fisher (75 OPS+ over 408 ML PA but 900 OPS in AAA).

If I ran the Jays (be afraid) I'd probably go with Alford in CF with Davis in AAA/5th OF, Fisher as DH/backup corners, and find new homes for Hernandez and McKinney if I couldn't send them to AAA. Guys like Forest Wall, and Josh Palacios are close to the majors and probably wouldn't be any worse than the gang we are debating. Griffin Conine I'd push to AA by mid-season if he handles Dunedin in the first half with plans to bring him up in 2021 if he keeps it up (sadly not a CF). Justin Ammons tore it apart his first year but in rookie ball so he is a long way from reaching. Sigh. CF is a mess either defensively or offensively unless Alford can put it all together.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#381815) #
Assuming the FO doesn't DFA any OF's.

Trade Teoscar for "whateveryoucanget"
McKinney has an option left. Use it.

That leaves Gurriel, Grichuk, Fisher, Alford, Davis.

2020 should be the final year of more or less planned non-contention. Last chance to toss stuff against the wall to see what sticks.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#381816) #
I would take Teoscar over Davis or Alford.
grjas - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#381817) #
ďI would be pretty disappointed if the Jays did not give Alford a shot in CF next season (assuming they donít acquire a CF from outside the org). ď

Iíd certainly be disappointed if they dropped Alford without another viable CF coming on board. If nothing else, he can be a late in the game defensive replacement or pinch runner, especially with the expanded roster.

McKinney on the other hand, at current course and speed, has virtually no value in the sea of mediocre Jays outfielders. So if they keep him over AA, Iíll be really disappointed.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#381818) #
I would take Teoscar over Davis or Alford.

Teoscar is almost the worst CF in the league defensively. He's been OK in LF this year, but that's Gurriel's everyday position. So for a team with a need in LF, Teoscar would have a bit of value.

Davis has almost no trade value, but we're talking 5th outfielder/pinch runner. Alford is potentially the best of the 3, even if he isn't yet. I'd hold onto him for a least one season.

bpoz - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#381819) #
2 solid starting pitchers!!!

Happ and Estrada I suppose were fantastic. Shoemaker if he could have stayed healthy and performed like he did before his injury.

J Garcia, Richard, F Liriano and Buchholz all came up short but were either cheap of not too expensive.

So if lucky we could get 2 solid starting pitchers. That would be better than great.
rpriske - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#381820) #
Do you think 2 solid starting pitchers is an unrealistic target?

The team will never build into a contender without a makeover of the rotation.

Maybe you think by 'solid' I am saying Gerrit Cole, or something.

No, two pitchers who would slot in as 3 or 4 in an actually decent rotation. That would currently make them top of the rotation in Toronto, because this is a team with only #4 and worse starters.

As for Teoscar, I would also keep him over Alford or Davis... but preferably to be the DH.

bpoz - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#381821) #

Elite : G Cole #1.

Also elite but not as good as Cole : 2016 Happ 3.18 ERA, Sanchez 3.00 ERA. For me they are #1

Good : 2016 Estrada 3.48 ERA and Stroman 4.37 ERA but 204 IP. So solid #2

Solid : 2016 Dickey 4.46 ERA. So 2 like Dickey would be good as # 3/4.

Looking at Estrada in Milwaukee was showing signs of getting better. He did and in the AL East.

Happ did not show that he could be more than a #4 before 2015 with a 4-4.5 ERA. The 11 games in Pittsburgh 1.85 ERA.

R Martin also became our catcher.

So I agree it is possible. But I am not setting myself up for disappointment like the off season when Donaldson was not traded. I don't know why my expectation was that, probably because of all the trade rumors. But It was a very long off season of waiting almost every day for the move that did not come. Too hard on me.

Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#381822) #
The next Jays CF is currently outside the organization. All of Hernandez, Fisher, McKinney, Davis and Alford could be shot into the sun without loss. I wouldn't really want any of them but, if forced, I'd take Davis and Alford too on the theory that they could be a 4th/5th OF due to speed and defence. The thing I find odd about the discussions relating to Teoscar is that everyone focuses on the terrible defence (for obvious reasons) but I don't see any evidence that he can actually hit either. He's 27 and has 1200 PAs under his belt with a 102 RC+.
dan gordon - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#381823) #
Alford was only 24 at the start of this season, just turned 25 in July. His career has been interrupted/delayed by injuries and football. It seems like he's been around a long time, but he has only 1,814 career minor league AB's. He has good speed and defense, and has shown at times in the minors that he can hit. His OPS in 2015 was .820, split between Lansing and Dunedin, and was .835 in New Hampshire just 2 years ago. Having just turned 25, he still should have a couple of years of improvement ahead of him, and I think he has a reasonable chance of being a decent big league player. Hernandez is a poor fielder and doesn't get on base well at all. He doesn't have enough power to make up for those issues, is about to turn 27, and his OPS has been declining for the last 2 seasons. He's probably not going to be much more than what he's shown the last 2 years. If I was managing another team, and had the opportunity to take one of the Blue Jays' outfielders from among their current mlb players, I would rank them in the following order: Gurriel, Grichuk, Alford, Hernandez, Fisher, McKinney and Davis. The last 5 are all probably not going to become good mlb players, but I think Alford has the best shot at it.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#381824) #
Derek Fisher has the best shot out of the last five in my opinion, as he has the best contact quality of the bunch and has an elite ability o lay off pitches out of the zone.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#381825) #
I actually think that its Fisher or McKinney at the bottom of that list. Fisher's 26 already and is rocking a 36% k rate in over 400 PAs. By the eye test, he's looks worthy of every part of that k rate. Even if he could start to hit at a reasonable level, he's definitely not a CFer or a RFer (due to his arm) defensively and I have serious doubts he can even hold down LF. Maybe Fisher is an answer at DH but I don't see any future for him in the OF. To me, he's a slightly worse, LH, version of Hernandez.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#381826) #
All of Hernandez, Fisher, McKinney, Davis and Alford could be shot into the sun without loss.

I'm inclined to agree more or less, with a slight caveat for McKinney and Alford - only because they're the youngest of the group and they've both had their development slowed by injuries and stuff. But it's not like they fill me with hope or anything.
scottt - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#381827) #
McKinney can't pay center field. He's a DH/1B/LF.
He's got 1 option left, so he should be covering in Buffalo next year.
Davis is a legit centre field, but he's hit worse than anybody else, so at that point he's only a defensive replacement.
Everybody still has Alford in the Jays top 30, so he should get a last shot next year.

We're going to a 26 player roster with a limit of 13 pitchers.
I think the IL will grow from 10, because as it is, a pitcher only misses one start.
Not sure what other changes are coming, but there is only 2 years left in the CBA.
So some players might be willing to take a 2 years deals and hope free agency gets better in the new CBA.
I'm not sure that's good for the Jays. They are still not quite there.

The Jays have a large number of pitching prospects who needs to be tested at the MLB levels.
Even if you drop Tim Mayza and Buchholtz,  that still leave 23 pitchers.
Adam, Boshers and Stewart released, still leaves you with 20 and not much of a bullpen.
So, I would add one started and one reliever.

For today, let's go with Valera, Alford and Fisher and if we can't lose with that, maybe bring back Maile tomorrow.

PeterG - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#381828) #
I don't think Adam will be released. He has been decent and having another option year, will be useful in the pen. I would prefer that Alford is retained and given an opportunity next year. I think that 2 solid starters in the off season is probably unrealistic.....maybe one solid and a flyer or 2. The solid guy will likely be obtained via trade.
92-93 - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#381829) #
Can Grichuk hitch a ride with the others to the sun? He'd be the last one on that list of OFs to start another team, not #2. His extension was pointless and remains terrible.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#381830) #
There are 400 batters in 2019 to have 150 PA, and FIsher's O-Swing% is 13th at just 20.2%. To me I think if he continues to lay off those kind of pitches his k-rate is going to improve in the same way I feel about Biggio.

To judge his contact quality you can look his XOWBACON which for his career is 0.421 against a league average of 0.371. If you combine the quality with the reason you expect his contact rate to improve you have some potential compared to the other options.

His defence is much maligned with very visible miscues, but 900 innings in the outfield he has a +4 DRS, and a 6.2 UZR/150. He will be absolutely fine in left field long term.
Magpie - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#381831) #
So... who actually has to be added to the 40 man this off-season?
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#381832) #
40-Man Moves:

Already Added:


Probably Added:

Thomas Hatch
Santiago Espinal

Probably Not Added:

Forrest Wall
Josh Palacious
Magpie - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#381833) #
The Jays website lists 44 players currently on the 40-man roster - 40 guys, and the four players on the 60 day IL. I believe there are two free agents, Smoak and Buchholz,, who will come off. You can get down to 39 by not offering arbitartion to Maile, Travis, and Pompey. I assume they're all done here anyway. That gets you down to 39. There's no shortage of other people you can cut loose - Brock Stewart, Buddy Boshers, Breyvic Valera. What I'm really wondering is how many spots they need to clear.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#381834) #
While the Jays have done well in the Rule 4 draft and with IFA acquisitions, it should be noted that they recently had Urshela (3 WAR) on their roster and an offer for Flaherty (4.1 WAR) in hand. They also had Hendriks, who is the highest-WAR reliever in baseball (3.5) this year. Thatís over 10 WAR produced by three (inexpensive) players in 2019. Somehow the front office whiffed on those opportunities and instead cycled through a few dozen marginal players in trades (and gave Grichuk an extension to boot).
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#381835) #
Listing Hendricks was a huge reach considering he was traded away by the Jays twice by two different GMs, and received the DFA treatment going unclaimed in August of last year.
John Northey - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#381836) #
For pitching we have a crap load of 'meh' right now to sort through.

Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, SRF, Shoemaker, Zeuch, Kay, Borucki, Diaz all started at least once this year and the Jays have the rights to them next year (Shoemaker via arbitration). Pearson should be up at some point next year. Plus there are an assortment of others who will get shots I'm sure. I'm sure the Jays will sign someone this winter to eat innings too, just to give the pen a partial rest sometimes.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#381837) #
I am afraid that 2019 will be remembered as the season of Alen Hanson, Socrates Brito and Brock Stewart. The various lists of suckitude will have to be updated.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 08:59 PM EDT (#381838) #
Agreed that Hendriks is a reach. But still ó like the other two players mentioned, he was either controlled by the Jays or readily available to them, but the team chose to go in another direction.

Of course, itís far from certain the Jays would have been able to help Urshela break through the way he has with the Yankees.
mathesond - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#381839) #
Some may choose to remember 2019 as the year of Hanson, Brito et al, but I suspect others may remember it for the debuts of Guerrero, Biggio and Bichette. I expect I'll wind up in the latter camp.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#381840) #
You're right, marhesond. I will take years off my life with this kind of thinking. Back to the bright side of the road.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#381841) #
The Yankees develop hitters better than anyone. I find it hard to even care about what Urshela is doing in NY since I doubt he would have come close to doing it on any other team.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#381842) #
Nice scoreless relief appearance for Luciano today. This should help give him a confidence boost heading into 2020.
Nigel - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#381843) #
You have to look at the positives of Bichette, Biggio, Jansen and Vladdy in 2019 or else this was just a lost year. The team didnít do anything else of significance except sell some assets for futures at the deadline.

I agree 92-93 - you couldnít move Grichuk today without adding a significant asset to do so. Heís a liability as of September 2019.
greenfrog - Tuesday, September 24 2019 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#381844) #
Donít forget about Gurriel Jr. and McGuire.
dan gordon - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 04:13 AM EDT (#381845) #
Speaking of Luciano, he's not going to be listed on the official prospect lists because of his time in the big leagues this year, but he really is still a prospect. Where do people think he rates among the Jays' pitching prospects? I would say the top of the group includes, in no particular order, Pearson, SWR, Manoah, Kloffenstein, Zeuch and Pardinho. Then you've got Williams, Castillo, Diaz, Kay, Winckowski, Murray, Murphy. That's 14 names, and I would think Luciano would be somewhere near the middle.
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 04:41 AM EDT (#381846) #
Besides Thomas Hatch and Santiago Espinal, who I agree are likely to be added to the 40-man in the offseason, the following are also Rule 5 eligible:

Kirby Snead
Travis Bergen
Jackson McClelland
Bryan Baker
Zach Jackson
Kevin Vicuna
Josh Palacios
Forrest Wall
Dany Jimenez
Curtis Taylor

No obvious future stars there, but I can definitely see the Jays losing 1 or 2 to the Rule 5 draft.
Jonny German - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 05:02 AM EDT (#381848) #
I've got these pitchers in my top 30, in order:

Nate Pearson
Simeon Woods Richardson
Alek Manoah
Eric Pardinho
Adam Kloffenstein
Anthony Kay
T.J. Zeuch
Kendall Williams
Maximo Castillo
Patrick Murphy
Joey Murray
Yosver Zulueta
Yennsy Diaz
Josh Winckowski

It's really hard to place Luciano as his development path is so different from what we're used to. Is he a better prospect today than he was at the end of 2018? I have no idea. But to place him ahead of anyone on this list (besides maybe Winckowski) you have to assume he's taken a big step forward this season. We'll have a much better idea 2 months in to 2020.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 05:22 AM EDT (#381849) #
Luciano's control looked better last night than earlier in the season, I suspect he was working on skill development while he was on the DL.
scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 06:33 AM EDT (#381850) #
Luciano sits at 93mph with a fastball that moves a lot.
He needs to develop a breaking ball. He has 2 years to do so.
He's probably going to add some velocity.
He has a really  nice attitude on the mound. Feels like a nice pick.

scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#381851) #
Juan de Paula is also Rule 5 eligible. Nobody's picking him.

Dany Jimenez and Jackson McClelland could be targets because they throw really hard.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 07:45 AM EDT (#381852) #
Nice list Johnny, I had completely forgotten about Yosver Zulueta.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#381853) #
It's not good when a 19 year old Rule 5 pickup is your best pitcher on a bullpen day game. Then again, maybe it is good because at least he has a future, I hope, with the Jays. So, speaking of the Rule 5, what is Luciano's status for next year? I know there was a loophole allowing the Jays to select him this year.

On the broadcast last night was this obscure tidbit - Anthony Alford and Jonathan Davis became the first brother-in-laws to ever homer in the the same game when they did it during Monday night's marathon.

Also something I saw recently - from the start of Major League Baseball in the 1900's until the year 2000, there were only 22 teams in total who hit 200 home runs in a season. This year there are 23 teams who have done that and Baltimore should make it 24. So, are the baseballs juiced?
Glevin - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 07:52 AM EDT (#381854) #
", but he has only 1,814 career minor league AB's. He has good speed and defense, and has shown at times in the minors that he can hit. His OPS in 2015 was .820, split between Lansing and Dunedin, and was .835 in New Hampshire just 2 years ago"

That's a long time ago in prospect years. Unless you are young for the league, in which case you can have some adjustment time, you can't regress for 2 years and maintain prospect status. The biggest issue for Alford is that the underlying numbers are bad. 30% K rate, doesn't hit the ball in the air nearly enough, not unlucky in any way, etc...He's being massively overrated because of his past status (like Pompey or Travis)
scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#381855) #
Some media are making a lot of fuss about the season being historically bad.
I totally despise that kind of thinking. The team is young and has some holes.
They've traded good pieces at the deadline, the immediate effect is negative.
That's normal and healthy.
Teams who have finished with worse seasons and leveraged that recently includes the Astros, Twins, Orioles, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Royals, Nationals.
The Red Sox and Yankees are the exceptions, not the norm.
Although, keep in mind that the Yankees drafted Derek Jeter 6th overall.

On the draft front, how historic is it?
The Jays could pick 5th, 6th or 7th.

In 2014, they picked 9th (Jeff Hoffman).
in  2013, they picked 10th (Phil Bickford)
in 2010, they picked 10th (Deck McGuire)
In 2005, they picked 5th, (Ricky Romero) <Tulo> So, yeah, not that long ago.
In 1998, they picked 8th  (Felipe Lopez)
In 1997, they picked 5th (Vernon Wells)
In 1996, they picked 4th (Billy Koch)
In 1983, they picked 9th (Matt Stark)
in 1982, they picked 2nd (Augie Schmidt)
in 1981, they picked 5th (Matt Williams)
in 1980, they picked 2nd (Garry Harris)
In 1979, they picked 3rd (Jays Schroeder)
In 1978, they picked 2nd (Lloyd Moseby)

I most say the early team wasn't good at drafting.

The 95 teams finished 55-88. That would work out to 63-99.

At any rate, the 2004 team was 67-94 26th overall.
So how don't see how a team that finishes 66-95 25th overall would be any worse.

Jonny German - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 08:52 AM EDT (#381857) #
you can't regress for 2 years and maintain prospect status

But he hasn't regressed for 2 years - he regressed, badly, in 2018, then bounced back this year. The bounce-back doesn't look as good as it could given that he was horrifically bad in April and that he missed 6 weeks from end of June due to injury. Those aren't things that can simply be ignored, of course (especially since he has a fairly extensive injury history), but looking at his AAA numbers after April is where you see some hope - .299/.383/.458 in 243 PA, 18/24 stealing bases and a slightly better K rate of 26%.

As for "massively overrated" - how highly do you think he's rated? Most prospect lists have him around #20 in the Jays system.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#381858) #
"The team is young"

Are they, really?
mathesond - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#381859) #
They're younger than I am. Are you calling me old?
bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#381860) #
I look forward to discussing Magpie's report card.

Atkins and Shapiro will be receiving a grade I presume. Our comments are probably going to be very interesting. To me Atkins employed a good strategy of picking up everything he could starting at the 2018 July trade deadline. Most of what he picked up will not work out for the Jays. We just mentioned Urshela and Hendriks who blossomed after leaving the Jays.

Continuing on with reasonable to dirt cheap pickups (some not ours) that vastly over performed. J Musgrove and J Lyles in Milwaukee are solid #4 pitchers IMO. Neither is old. I really liked the strategy of getting 2 solid SPs and agreed with it. Or a combo of SP/setup. Atkins has a huge stock of pitchers that are unproven and he is always adding. He also has many non elite pitching prospects in AAA and AA. He is playing a numbers game.

S Brito hurt the Jays and the advisers who suggested him by playing the way he did on the ML team. But his AAA numbers are quite good and he is probably being taught to make improvements to his defensive and offensive game so that he can tap into his natural talent. So he has a chance rather than no chance.

We have seen failings at the ML level going down to figure something out. 5 examples this year?

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#381861) #
I've got these pitchers in my top 30, in order:

Nate Pearson
Simeon Woods Richardson
Alek Manoah
Eric Pardinho
Adam Kloffenstein
Anthony Kay
T.J. Zeuch
Kendall Williams
Maximo Castillo
Patrick Murphy
Joey Murray
Yosver Zulueta
Yennsy Diaz
Josh Winckowski

Pitchers are so hard to evaluate.  Here's my very subjective opinion of where Luciano fits. First, some general comments.    In terms of performance, there's a big gap between A+ ball and double A.  It's particularly hard in the last few years to weight A+ numbers too much because Dunedin has had a very good club in a pitcher-friendly environment.  And then there's scouting- stuff, control and command, poise, fielding, move/holding runners...  In some ways, we have more scouting information on Luciano than many of the other pitchers because all of us have seen him multiple times.

Let's start with the scouting.  We know that Luciano's stuff, while not major league ready, is obviously well on track given his age.  His fastball is already pretty good, and he's thrown some sliders with bite.  His change-up didn't wow me, but it was effective.  His control was a work-in-progress for major league purposes but was pretty good previously at the minor league level.  He was quite poised, I thought, and my subjective impression was that the time here will not adversely affect his development significantly (that is not always true).  I don't think that his confidence took a hit.

On to performance.  I don't think that you can compare Luciano to a pitcher who has had significant success at the double A level like Zeuch or Kay.  But to someone like Winckowski or Castillo or even pitchers like Murray, Murphy or Yennsy Diaz, you can try.  Luciano already misses bats at an acceptable rate for major league pitcher (9.7%).  That's a huge deal for predictive purposes.  There's no way that Winckowski or  Castillo could do that yet, and they are 19 and 9 months older than him.  Both had and have somewhat better control.  In the end, ZIPS projects ERA and FIP for the remainder of the season for Luciano  5.51/5.70 , Winckowski 6.06/6.04 and Castillo 6.37/.6.40.  I'd have Luciano ahead of those two. The players at double A are in a different category.  Joey Murray is 23 years and 2 months, and handled double A quite well for 43 innings including striking out 52.  Steamer projects him at 5.46/5.54.  I like Murray and I think he has a better chance at a major league career, but Luciano has a better chance (I think) to be a top-drawer major league starter.  Diaz is 22 years and 10 months and pitched decently at double A for 144 innings striking out 116.  ZIPS projects him at 5.87/.574.  He's thrown 140+ innings each of the last two years, and you have to give him points for durability.   Again, I think Diaz has a better chance at a major league career, but Luciano has a better chance (I think) to be a top-drawer major league career.  Murphy is a completely different story because of the whole balk/delivery issue.  Steamer has him at 5.24/5.22.  I have as much doubt about Murphy as Luciano on all counts,but I like them both. 

For me, Luciano is the Murray, Murphy, Diaz knot.  I've got him clearly behind everyone down to Zeuch on Jonny's list.  After that, it's desperate work to split hairs. 

hypobole - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#381862) #
Fangraphs has an article on Oliver Drake. He was twice a waiver wire pickup by the Jays last year. He pitched all of 2 games for us before he was sold to the Rays in the offseason.

Much like Urshela, and unlike Hendriks or Yan Gomes, no one here complained about losing Drake. But Drake and the Rays made a few changes, and now he's one of the better bullpen pieces on their team.

One could criticize the FO whiffing on Drake as they did with Urshela (though obviously to a much lesser degree). But maybe the FO did their job in recognizing the raw talent, but the coaching staff wasn't able to unlock that talent.

The Dodgers and Yankees are usually thought of as big spenders, but they've also gotten big boost from their coaching staffs' ability to unlock the potential of guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor, Urshela and Tauchman.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#381863) #
In the bright side of the road department, Dan Szymborski has Bo Bichette's 6 year projection and top 10 comps.  Teaser: the first 4 names on the top 10 comps are Beltre, Boudreau, Yount and Rodriguez.  I'm not booking my ticket for Cooperstown in 2044, although it would make a fine marker birthday present if I make it that long and Bo lives up to his comps. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#381864) #
Dan suggests that the organization has not developed pitching phenoms yet in his "nice Szym" section.  I think that comment belongs in the "mean Szym" section with something snarky about how Nate Pearson hasn't proved anything yet and is fragile as a flower- not that mean Szym would have the courage to say that to Big Nate's face!
John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#381865) #
Hitters average age 26.0, pitchers 27.8

The only years the Jays have been younger for average age for hitters was 1980 and 1981 (25.8 both years). Next is 1982 at 26.5. 1983 was the start of 11 years over 500 with multiple division titles and 2 WS wins at the end.

For pitchers 2012, 1987, and 1984 tie this year, with 1986 just barely younger. The youngest years were sub 26 (1979, 1982, 1977, 1981, 1978 - boy they did go young in the early years eh?).

So pitching is a bit old for a rebuild (30+ crew of Richard, Jackson, Buchholz, Guerra, Feierabend, Hudson, Shoemaker, Phelps, Tepera, Boshers, Rosscup, and Ramirez explains it). The older guys are mostly gone after this season (Shoemaker, Tepera, Boshers might be back). Sub 25's like SRF, Diaz, Kay, Zeuch should all get chances in 2020, while Luciano the 19 year old gets AA time next year and maybe a call up at some point if he earns it. The 25 and up crew (Thornton, Waguespack, Pannone, Romano, Shafer, etc.) will mostly be filler until better kids come up. Lets hope the Jays find a few better ones.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#381866) #
If winning becomes a part of our conversation then I believe our pitching was a bigger strength in our 80s.

So I expect history to repeat. We will once again develop #1s like we always have.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#381867) #
Sub 25's like SRF, Diaz, Kay, Zeuch should all get chances in 2020,

Nate Pearson is in line for the Rodney Dangerfield award today. 
bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#381868) #
While I like Atkins speaking, while not giving away any information, I wish I knew how the ML tests of our relievers is evaluated. Brock Stewart in particular. I have lost all confidence in him. I see him as a pitcher that can throw 30 pitches in 1 inning and get 3 outs but gives up 3 runs doing that. His last 2 outings 1 inning 4 earned runs, then .2 innings 3 earned runs.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#381869) #
Teoscar's defence is not as bad as those on here suggest. DRS and UZR are pretty negative, but the other available metrics (DRA and FRAA) both have him as above-average this year. I don't have FRAA broken down by position, but DRA has him above-average both in centre and in left. Statcast has him below-average, but not dramatically so: -3 catches and at the 45th percentile in jump. Inside edge fielding numbers have him making the plays as expected across the board in centre.

The eye test may be worse, and Teoscar doesn't add value on defence, but the numbers do not support the degree of condemnation he is receiving here.
rpriske - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#381870) #
Not that it is incredibly hard to come up with, but I liked opening Gregor Chisolm's mailbag and seeing him lay the exact same offseason priorities that I posted in here.

"The top three priorities should be adding a couple proven arms to the rotation, finding a long-term centre-fielder and plugging the hole at first base."
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#381871) #
I'd prefer one great starter to two starters with some promise.  The org, of course, prefers to spread out risk.

Any measurement of outfield defence is best over a 2 or 3 year period.  Teoscar in his career has 2400 outfield innings, just under two 150 game seasons worth.  In that time frame, he is +1 FRAA, -14 outs above average (which equates to about -13 runs above average; the linear weight of a single is .7, a double 1.0 and a triple 1.27), -26 DRS and -17 UZR.  If you want to say he's a -8/150 centerfielder and a -5/150 corner, there's evidence for that if you give roughly equivalent weights to each system or if you think that he looks a little better in 2019 than in 2018 and previously.  Personally, I wouldn't and I'd have it as a -12/150 CF and a -9/150 corner, with greater weight attached to DRS and UZR. 
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#381872) #
How much $$ do we have to spend in the offseason? I mean, we've got what, $50M max committed next season?
Just on a lark - give Cole $30M, Keuchel $20-25M, resign Giles for $10-15M.

Give Rendon $30M, move Vladdy to DH/1st, platoon with Tellez and Teoscar for DH/1st.

Give Castellanos $20M in right, Grichuk in center, Gurriel in left.

That gives us a starting 9 of:Bo BichetteCavan BiggioRendonVladCastellanosGurriel
Jansen / McGuire

Total payroll around $170-180M. Is this a 95+ win team?
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#381873) #
Wow, that got mangled..

That gives us a starting 9 of:Bo BichetteCavan BiggioRendonVladCastellanosGurriel
Jansen / McGuire


Total payroll around $170-180M. Is this a 95+ win team?
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#381874) #
Ok, I even double-checked on "preview". I give up. I guess even Geeklog is against my idea..
uglyone - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#381875) #
" I wish I knew how the ML tests of our relievers is evaluated. "

When in doubt, go with spin rate.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#381876) #
Poor Nate.  Doesn't even get a mention as the #7 starter on a vision of next year's club aimed at winning. 

You still the man, Pearson.  They named a freaking airport after you before you even got here.
dan gordon - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#381877) #
Thanks for the thoughts on Luciano.

That vision of a possible 2020 team is interesting as an intellectual exercise, I guess. Certainly Pearson should be in there, and if he's healthy, I would say Borucki has a good shot as well.

I absolutely wouldn't sign Keuchel. He'll be 32 in a few months, and isn't nearly as good a pitcher as his reputation. The ballpark in Houston has really helped him, and when you look at his career road numbers, you get a clearer picture of who he is. Career road ERA of 4.31, WHIP of 1.37, despite playing a lot of games in Seattle, Anaheim and Oakland, all good pitchers' parks. He doesn't strike out a lot of guys. This year, he had an ERA of 3.59, but an FIP of 4.49, and again, his road numbers are not good, with an ERA of 4.76 and WHIP of 1.57. If somebody signs him to a big money deal this offseason, they're going to regret it.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#381878) #
Heh. My list was based on who played in the majors this year, not guys who haven't reached. Pearson will be up at some point next year but given I don't want to dig into the minors (time and all) I just figured 'list the major leaguers so far'.
Magpie - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#381879) #
Atkins and Shapiro will be receiving a grade I presume.

Atkins and Montoyo, I'm not all that interested in the team president's job.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#381880) #
Dull and Yennsy up to fortify the overtaxed bullpen.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#381881) #
If you want to say he's a -8/150 centerfielder and a -5/150 corner, there's evidence for that if you give roughly equivalent weights to each system or if you think that he looks a little better in 2019 than in 2018 and previously. Personally, I wouldn't and I'd have it as a -12/150 CF and a -9/150 corner, with greater weight attached to DRS and UZR.

You're making the most negative choices at every point to get to this conclusion:

1. Minimizing or excluding probability-based systems (DRA and FRAA)
2. Underweighting the system with the best data: OOA.
3. Giving no apparent weight to his improvement in 2019.

The main objection here is that you're preferring DRS and UZR, two video and zone-based metrics, to OOA, which is a more precise measure of the same thing DRS and UZR are trying to get to. Unless you're a real Statcast sceptic, there's just no reason to think its range numbers are inferior to UZR & DRS range numbers. But you're giving the UZR/DRS methodology twice the emphasis even before you throw out OOA.
scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#381882) #
That's great. Yennsy should be hanging out with Luciano.
There's not a lot of Latinos in that pen.

Dull was claimed, DFAed and outrighted to Buffalo last week.
To make room for him, Gurriel goes on the 60 DL.

This means that Dull will become a free agent once they're done with him.
Beau Taylor is back on assignement too.
They could release Dull and claim him back if they want.

What else is there?

The Jays should not sign a free agent who would cost them a pick.
Yeah, it's only the second rounder, but it's actually a pretty high pick still.

When they signed Estrada and Happ, it's not so much that they wanted to split the risk.
They needed 2 or 3 pitchers. This time around they will have a lot of depth in Buffalo.

The money is not too important, but they will not sign a pitcher for 7 years or more.
I'd imagine 2 or 3 years with club options.

So, the Jays haven't developed pitchers lately?
Harris, SRF, Conner Greene, Hollon, Justin Maese, Matt Smoral, Tom Robson, Juan Meza, Jose Espada, Evan Smith, Angel Perdomo, Travis Bergen, Shane Dawson, Francisco Rios, Patrick Murphy, Zach Jackson, Chad Girodo,

That's about it, right? Maybe a lack of success with the international free agents. Not that they signed may of the top arms.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#381883) #
We've got an 0-2 count on him. What shall we throw next?

How about a fastball exactly where he likes them?
bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#381884) #
Looking and reading the comments about the OF defense. I don't understand the numerical answers.

So the ball is juiced. Therefore more Hrs from T Hernandez and B McKinney. McKinney has taken advantage lately. The others will also take advantage. For example J Davis if given enough playing time will hit 10 Hr instead of 4.

But then the opposition is also hitting a lot of "hard hit Balls". So now it is harder to catch these fly balls I assume. J Davis has the skills. He caught a tough one against NYY B Gardner and a very hard out in Zeuch's No Hitter. I really think Atkins and the staff have to figure out this "balance". Montoyo does bring Davis in late in the game to help preserve a lead.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#381885) #
For this winter I expect a lot like last winter - signing guys who few want but have potential or once great who are recovering from injury. If one hits then great...just hope he stays healthy. No more than $5-10 million a year to anyone, no more than 3 years to anyone. That's what I expect. I figure the big news will be a long term deal for one or more of the kids.
bpoz - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#381886) #
I am very confident with K Giles.
scottt - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#381887) #
2020 is completely different than 2019, because there's nobody left to trade for prospects.

This year, the team did not improve at the at the deadline because they traded lots of assets away.
They shouldn't have guys to trade next year. They should have young guys at every positions and they should pick up guys to replace the ones who are not working out.

The objective this year was not to play for .500.
They traded their catcher over the winter.
They traded their DH in spring training.
They traded their center field in the first week of the season.
They traded their best 2 starting pitchers at the deadline.
They traded their best position player in Sogard.
They would have traded their best reliever had he been healthy.
They traded their next best 3 relievers in Hudson, Phelps and Biagini.
They released Galvis. They kept Drury and Maile.

This is not trying to win games.

There is something like 219 players with 400 ABs and out of that Drury is dead last in OBP.
Maile has an OPS of .428.

What they have done is establish the next core and solidify 6 position players.
They have players who can compete for the other 3 spots.
Starling Marte is probably available in trade, but I don't think they'll trade prospects for a guy with 2 years of control left.
There are a couple of Japanese outfields who could be posted but usually these guys prefer the west coast and Rogers is not likely to want to throw that kind of money around.

So, now they will keep building pitching until it becomes a strength, but not by signing long term contracts.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#381888) #
Former Jays prospects Moises Sierra and Art Charles are hitting well in the Mexican League.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#381889) #
I would expect 2020 to be what 2019 was except instead of integrating a bunch of position players, it will be trying to piece together a young rotation. I would be surprised if more than one established SP was added. The projected 40 man roster, barring any trades/moves, on the pitching side will be a mishmash of arms with varying degrees of upside/potential (Pearson in late-April/May, Kay, Zeuch, Thornton, Shoemaker, Waguespack, Borucki, Hatch, Merryweather, Perez, Diaz, Murphy, SRF). Most of those names are likely future RP's or flame outs, but 2020 will probably be used to see if a couple can become contributors long-term.

I'd like to see the Jays look into adding a couple of good/established arms in free agency, but I don't think the FO will do it a season after ending up bottom 5 in baseball.
John Northey - Wednesday, September 25 2019 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#381890) #
Now that the year is almost done some comparisons....
Would you rather have... (OPS+ for this year in all cases)
CA: Russell Martin (77 OPS+) or Danny Jansen (69 OPS+)?
1B: Smoak both years.
2B: Travis (DL) or Biggio (113)
SS: Aledmys Diaz (110 OPS+ mostly playing 1B) or Bo Bichette (143)?
3B: Yangervis Solarte (49 OPS+ released in July) or Vlad (108 OPS+)
LF: Hernandez (94) vs Gurriel (127)
CF: Pillar (87 - dead on his career average) vs Hernandez (94)
RF: Grichuk both years
DH: Kendrys Morales (57 OPS+) vs Tellez (91 before tonight)

Note: 3B also has to factor in Donaldson who had a 126 OPS+ this year for $23 million (5.9 WAR). Would've been nice but Vlad clearly was ready to take over even if Donaldson outperformed him this year.

Only outhit by the old guys at CA and not by a ton (factor in the mix as Jansen/McGuire vs Martin/Maile and it is a blowout I suspect).

No question the Jays did the right thing for the lineup by cleaning house and probably should've dumped Smoak as well.

Pitching last year (rotation) was... (10+ starts ERA+ in 2019)
Estrada (63), Gavillo (still here), Happ (89), Sanchez (98 for Houston), Stroman (106 for Mets), Borucki (still here), Garcia (retired). None outside of Stroman I'd still want here. Happ is decent but nothing 'wow' for $17 mil this year and next and might not make their playoff rotation.

Yeah, the Jays could've blown a fortune keeping guys but boy it wouldn't have worked well.
dan gordon - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 03:36 AM EDT (#381891) #
"There is something like 219 players with 400 ABs and out of that Drury is dead last in OBP"

Kind of humourous in a way, but also kind of alarming that the team has continued to play Drury so much. It points out something that bothers me about the current front office. I have liked most of what they have done, but they seem to have a very difficult time changing their mind about a player who is demonstrating quite emphatically that they are wrong. Take Fisher as another example. What I heard Atkins say after the trade was that they have been after him for years. Well, 2 or 3 years ago he looked like a pretty good prospect, but then he really stumbled, but the Jays didn't change their minds about him, and still regarded him very highly. Maybe he's the one who gets a ton of AB's next year even though he's playing poorly - or maybe it's Drury yet again. There are times to stick with a player, such as a guy with a demonstrated level of success who has been battling some injury trouble, but there are also times when you have to admit you have misjudged somebody, and these guys seem VERY slow to clue in.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 06:18 AM EDT (#381892) #
I didn't like Drury at the time of the Happ trade, I became intrigued by Drury at the start of the year when he was hitting the ball hard, and now I am firmly landed in the all hope is lost realm.
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#381893) #
I agree that pitching will be the focus next year. When you look at it, a lot has been accomplished this year. Jansen and McGuire ( who has surprised me ) make up a good, young tandem at catcher, Guerrero (for now) Bichette and Biggio have been established at their positions, and I think Tellez deserves a shot as a full time first baseman. Gurriel has shown he can be a star, and some young pitchers like Thornton, Waguespack and Zeuch have gotten big league experience.

You can't build a house in a day or even a week, but at least the foundation has been poured.
scottt - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#381894) #
2020 should be for the pitching what 2019 was for position players, but there are differences.

The position players are mostly established, so that raises the baseline by a few WAR.
By bWAR the Jays had about 12 WAR total outside of pitching, but that's also more or less what the 6 established position produced in limited ABs from Guerrero, Bichette,  Biggio and Gurriel. Just not having Brito, Hansen and Maile gives you about 3 WAR. So even without looking at the pitching, the team should win more next year.

There is only one valuable pitcher who could be traded, Giles. I sure hope they keep him. He's been good for almost 3 WAR.
There is only one valuable pitcher gone from the rotation, Stroman.
They need to bring one guy who is a definitive plus. Not a Buchholt/Richard type who produced negative WAR.
They have only one top prospect, Pearson, scheduled to debut next year.
But Borucki could bounce back. Shoemaker was amazing when healthy.
The key to being over .500 is probably having a lock down bullpen with shutdown guys covering the 7/8/9 innings and always at least one long relief guy available every day.
They might debut some guys in that role, guys like Murphy, Merryweather, Diaz, Perez, Johnston, Hatch.
For the top innings, Giles is great. Axford will probably try to come back.
Font is interesting. Law is puzzling. He's much better when he walks more and challenges hitter less.

John Northey - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#381895) #
Killers in WAR pitching...

Edwin Jackson : -1.5 (thank god he is gone - now with Tigers, has 8 starts for them and still sucks)
Brock Steward : -0.6
Clay Buchholz : -0.5 (free agent)
Ryan Borucki : -0.4 (DL issues)
Thomas Pannone : -0.4
Aaron Sanchez : -0.3 (long gone)
Jordan Romano : -0.3
Ryan Feierabend : -0.2
Zac Rosscup : -0.2 (in just 1 inning)

317 2/3 IP and -4.4 wins among them. Pannone, Romano, and Stewart are guys who might be here next year still for some reason as will Borucki (given his issues were probably due to his injuries I'll give him a break). So 4 more wins to regain just by not giving those guys time on the mound. Sadly we all know Pannone will get more chances.

FYI: 3 more were -0.1 (Richard, Urena, Diaz).
Chuck - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#381896) #
Edwin Jackson

65 IP, 21 HR. Now that is impressive. That's the kind of pitching you see at the HR derby.

Chuck - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#381897) #
Drury is dead last in OBP

The core-3 show OBP skills. The rest of the team, particularly the trade acquisitions, are low OBP chunks of coal from which the organization is presumably hoping will see emerge a diamond or two. Watching coal predictably stay coal is frustrating to watch. Drury is the coalest of the coals.

What is the team's offensive profile? They are 5th in HR and 5th in K. The payoff for this strategy? They are 11th in scoring.

They are 15th in AVG, 14th in OBP and 10th in SLG. They are 11th in walks, 11th in doubles, and 12th in triples.

They do one thing well. They hit HR. But that isn't enough. Many have discussed shooting a gaggle of floundering Jays into the sun. Drury needs to be at the front of the line. Jury, the evidence is in.

Jonny German - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#381898) #
While admitting that I'm generally an optimist, I think there's a lot of hope for the Jays OBP in 2020. I expect them to get better results from 4 positions (C, SS, 3B, LF), and about the same from 2 (2B to be a little worse than the good rate from Biggio & Sogard, RF to be a little better than the awful rate from Grichuk & co). That leave CF, 1B, and DH up in the air. First base may get worse with the presumed depature of Smoak and his .339 OBP, but CF (.287) and DH (.303) surely can only get better.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#381899) #
When the team committed over $50M to Grichuk, who has had OBP's of .289, .285, .301, and .284 from 2016-present, it says a lot about what Atkins likes in a player. I agree it's not a good trend, especially when most of his pick-ups fit that description. On the bright side it hasn't seemed to infiltrate to the players the team has drafted/developed/signed internationally, which is way more important since those players (the good ones) are more likely to be long-term parts of the team now and in the future.
Jevant - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#381900) #
Atkins clearly likes the "hit the ball hard" types, which I'm fine with, though I do wonder if it's as necessary now with the juiced ball, and everyone trying to go all air-balls, all the time.

I think the Grichuk extension was designed to try to lock in a (hopefully) core piece at a reasonable rate, with the assumption he'd be able to turn out 2 WAR seasons in RF (with some CF sprinkled in) for the duration of the contract). Considering the 2015-2018 numbers, that wasn't a particularly egregious bet. 2019 has been rough (a little unlucky BABIP wise, especially since part of the reason his numbers are down is because he's hit more ground balls, which should have increased the BABIP), but I think there's a decent chance he'll get back to being a 2 WAR player next year. The strikeout rate has decreased since he broke into the league, so hopefully that continues to stabilize.

Bottom line if Grichuk is your 3rd best OF, I think you are okay. But they definitely need Gurriel to continue locking down LF, and they need a legitimate CF option (or you have to move Grichuk to CF and get an elite RF).

It does seem to me that they need to decide what they are going to do with the McKinney/Fisher/Teoscar/Alford group. I think at best you can only roster one of those guys on a contending team, barring significant improvement from a couple of them.
Jevant - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#381901) #
For CF, I am wondering if old friend AA might be willing to move on from Ender Inciarte, which may not be the sexiest CF option, but is a legit CF who had a rough year and could be primed to bounce back a bit.
Jevant - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#381902) #
Another option could be Manuel Margot, seems to be on the outs in SD, former top prospect who can play a legit CF and doesn't strike out nearly as much as the rest of our current OF options.
uglyone - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#381903) #
Always liked Margot as a prospect though iirc he had yuge L/R splits all thru the minors.
grjas - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#381904) #
They certainly have had an odd "strategy" for the outfield.  In addition to locking in a so-so right fielder for big dollars, they have been throwing noodle after noodle at the wall hoping something- anything- sticks. McKinney, Fisher, Hernandez, Alford, Drury, Davis, Gurriel, and Pompey all getting shots over the last 12 months or so. I've probably missed a few, but that's 8 players floated through 2 positions in the course of a year, "lucking" out on only Gurriel.

I think it's time to pay the price for a good solid CF and be done with the experimenting. Keep one or two of the long shots for the soon to be larger bench- I'd keep Fisher and Alford- and get on with it. 
Jevant - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#381905) #
He's better against LHP for sure, but seems to be at least somewhat BABIP related. Curious if there's a reason for that or not.
bpoz - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#381906) #
grjas odd strategy for sure. Add in S Brito and a few appearances for Drury and Biggio.

I am 80% sure that another OF will be picked up off the DFA.

We can also get out of options and surplus good/promising depth pieces. I hope we can grab something off TB.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#381907) #
I don't think the CF answer needs to be found until 2021 once the pitching is sorted and we are actually contending.  It's pretty clear it likely won't be an internal option, so we should move our chips to the middle once its the right time.

I think if the Jays give it another year and a strong year for Jansen, you trade him for a young CF and go with a Kirk/McGuire pairing behind the plate. I would also look at A ball center field prospects like Brennan Davis, Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas, etc in the mean-time in potential Giles trades.

GabrielSyme - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#381908) #
The big question here is whether 2020 is a year in which we aim to be a decent team but still rebuilding, or a contending team.

Frankly, I think there are too many weaknesses to plug via free agency to get to a credible contender next year. The further down the path we go in terms of attempting to contend via free agency, the harder it will be to give opportunities to existing talent, undermining the rebuild.

Alford and Fisher are out of options next year. You have to roster both or lose them. Signing a new centre fielder functionally means cutting one of them loose, and I kind of doubt that happening. Nor should it - these are still two guys with plenty of skills and upside.

Upgrading the rotation would have more of an impact and would be less likely to erode our rebuilding effort. Similarly, a 1B would address a position of need without interfering in developing talent.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#381909) #
I'm perfectly fine with a Jarrod Dyson interim solution (as part of a CF platoon with Jonathan Davis or Teoscar). 
PeterG - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#381910) #
WAR - 1.0
w- 5
ERA- 4.38
WHIP - 1.3

Is this good enough for a 5th starter. On most teams it would be, don't u think? Without looking it up, who is it?
Cracka - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#381911) #
Alford and Fisher are out of options next year. You have to roster both or lose them.

Only if they are claimed on waivers. Otherwise, both could be assigned outright to Buffalo after clearing waivers... and I believe this is what they are planning for Alford (based on him not playing much this month). Strategically, there are two good times to waive a player: late November (prior to Rule V draft roster lockdown) and end of spring training. My guess is that Alford is waived in November but that Fisher stays on the roster until at least spring training.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#381912) #
No thanks on Dyson/Inciarte - I'd rather just let Alford have a run or some other change of scenery guy (Margot?) who has got some control/upside left - Heck, I'm even rooting for Forrest Wall to break-out.
hypobole - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#381913) #
The 3 areas of improvement I've read on multiple occasions for next year are the rotation, CF and 1B.

Yes to the rotation. We're not signing a QO guy, but there will be decent options beyond those guys.
For CF, use internal options next year and if the club looks ready to contend in 2021, then make the call. Same with 1B, which should be close to the least of our worries.

One item I don't see mentioned is our bullpen. Outside of Giles, who may very well be traded this offseason, there isn't one guy in the pen who I would consider an asset on a contending team.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#381914) #
If they do what you say, hypobole, what do you think the over/under on the attendance for 2020 is?  With reduced ticket prices in 2019, the club has drawn less than 1.7 million so far.  I don't know how much lower they can profitably go on ticket prices.  I suppose that they're not getting much revenue at all from the bleachers/500 level, and they could go do 2 for 1s and season's passes aimed at the younger crowd to boost their long-term market. 

I went to one game this year, and it will be zero next year if the club doesn't make an effort to compete. 
GabrielSyme - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#381915) #
I'm in agreement on the bullpen, and I expect a similar strategy to last offseason, rather than paying for consistent performers. The final composition of the bullpen could well depend on 40-man constraints, as I don't know how many FA relievers can be signed without starting to lose controllable relief prospects (Shafer, Diaz, Romano, not adding McClelland, etc) in order to sign more established relievers.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#381916) #
On sneaking Alford and/or Fisher through waivers, I don't think we should have any illusions that the Jays are likely to retain either if they are exposed to waivers. There are other rebuilding teams with bad outfields (Miami, Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, KC) who would be happy to roster Alford or Fisher at least as 4th outfielders.
SK in NJ - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#381917) #
I wouldn't mind acquiring Margot if he came at a reasonable cost. Similar type of player to Pillar, but at 25 he might have some upside left with the bat and is controllable for three years. Splits are fairly significant against RH/LH, though.

As mentioned, I would imagine a rebuilding/tanking team would claim Alford if he were taken off the 40 man in November (Baltimore, Detroit, KC, etc). He's not that far removed from being a top 50-100 prospect, and bad teams will have patience for a player like that. Fisher likely falls under the same category.

The team can probably keep all the OF's (plus add Wall) if they simply stuck with status quo, meaning Gurriel/Grichuk in the OF, and Fisher/Hernandez/Alford splitting time between the final OF spot, DH, and 4th OF. It really depends on whether Atkins wants to add a OF that might be around for a while from outside the organization, or use 2020 as the last "throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" season.
bpoz - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#381918) #
Not counting Giles and Thornton our whole staff have not shown that they are good. Therefore lots of competition with nobody blocking anyone.

But we have a few pitchers that can go 2-4 innings. Wagues and Font. Zeuch and Kay have shown glimpses that they can be 6+ inning starters by the end of 2020. Borucki.

At least they will get a chance.

Actually there is a very long line of contenders already in AAA and AA. Some A+ SPs should start the year in AA (Castillo) and a few will get mid year promotions (SWR).

Pearson pitching 2 innings in 2018 and then AFL held him back. If he had 125 IP in 2018 then some AA time would be probable. Which means that 2019 could have been some ML time.
PeterG - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#381919) #

Jays 21st , not good but not quite as bad as many suggesting, particularly if u remove multiple horrible starts from Sanchez
Chuck - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#381920) #
particularly if u remove multiple horrible starts from Sanchez

What about all of Stroman's good starts? Keep those in?

PeterG - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#381921) #
Far more of the former, so if you removed both , the ERA would be somewhat better.
hypobole - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#381922) #
Looking more and more like the Jays will be drafting 5th. Only 2 teams left have a chance to pass us. Any combo of 1 Jays loss or 1 Pirate win eliminates them. With Seattle, the magic number is 2.

Now, since were getting a top pick in the 1st round, we also get a top pick in the 2nd. #5 has ranged between 41 and 48 the past 4 drafts. That #5 in those 4 drafts have yielded the Braves #2 prospect Drew Waters and our ex-Met SWR.

There are already 3 2nd round picks from 2016 making a sizable impact in the majors. Bo, of course, Dan's man Brian Reynolds and soon-to-be NL ROY Pete Alonzo.

We ain't giving up that pick to sign a QO FA this offseason.
uglyone - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#381923) #
Fyi if you use fangraphs leaderboards, you can make a list of all the Jay's starters you want to pick and choose and then click "team stats" to see what the overall pitching would look like with just those pitchers.
85bluejay - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#381924) #
The Mets don't really have a position for Dominic Smith - I wonder what he would cost?
dan gordon - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#381925) #
I have no interest in Jarrod Dyson. Still a good defender, but he can't hit. If you are thinking of him as a platoon player, using him only against righties, I strongly suggest you look at his splits the last 2 seasons - he slashed .173/.260/.235/.494 against righties in 2018 and .218/.304/.318/.622 against righties in 2019. He's actually hit way better against lefties over that 2 year span. He'll be 36 years old next August. Margot has been a decent hitter in the minors, and came up to the big leagues very young, but hasn't shown any progress in his 3 mlb seasons. At 25, he still could figure some things out, but he hits very poorly against righties. I'd be interested in getting Inciarte - he averaged 3.7 WAR per season from 2014 to 2018, prior to his poor season this year, which was greatly shortened/impacted by injury. His contract is fine at $7.7 million and $8.7 million the next 2 years, with a $9.0 million option for 2022.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#381926) #
I have been looking into the comparable players tool and for Tellez his top compares are as follows:

1. Christian Walker
2. Keston Hiura
3. Eugneio Suarez
4. Kole Calhoun
5. Roughned Odor

I still like his outcomes going forward.
dan gordon - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#381927) #
Totally baffled by those comps. Hiura is a 2nd baseman, is almost a year and a half younger, has hit for a .940 OPS, 138 OPS+, and has produced 1.8 WAR in only 80 games, a 3.6 WAR pace. He's a terrific young star player, who should have an outstanding big league career. Tellez hasn't come even remotely close to anything like that. For comparison, Tellez has an OPS of .744 this year, 98 OPS+, and has produced 0.1 WAR in 108 games. There is no basis of comparison between these 2 players whatsoever.

Walker is 4 years older than Tellez, has kicked around the big leagues since 2014, but received very few AB's, and suddenly burst out with 2.3 WAR this season. Aside from playing 1B, I see no similarity between him and Tellez.
Shoeless Joe - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#381928) #
It is based purely on hitting ability, and the underlying hitting numbers.

Tellez vs. Hiura
K%: 28.7 vs. 30.4
BB%: 7.3 vs. 7.3
GB%: 39.3 vs. 37.4
FB%: 27.5 vs. 28.3
LD%: 27.1 vs. 28.3
PU%: 6.1 vs. 6.1
LA: 14.0 vs. 15.9
AEV: 90.4 vs. 91.4
Hard%: 40.2 vs. 49.0

Hiura hits the ball harder and is a step ahead, but their discipline and batted ball profiles are almost identical.
Michael - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#381929) #
Interesting 538 article on how teams have done with drafting pitching since 2012. We know with the young position players the Jays promoted this year that we've developed a lot of good hitting talent, but lots of oncern about our pitching talent. Since 2012 the Jays pitching drafting has been pretty effective.

This gives you credit for signing and drafting, even if you are traded. But still, the Jays have twice as much drafted pitchers as the typical team.

And while this is players drafted since 2012, much of the value would be players drafted earlier since players drafted in the past couple of years are unlikely to have played in the majors much.
scottt - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#381930) #
I don't think 2012 and onwards captures much..
Going by bWAR.
Stroman 14.5
Matthew Boyd 6.9
Kendall Graveman 5.4
Jeff Hoffman -0.9
Justin Shafer 0.5

scottt - Thursday, September 26 2019 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#381931) #
Font has been good. Shafer has been decent.

Stroman couldn't save the Mets.
Hudson has been good with the Nationals.
Phelps has been solid for the Cubs but Kimbrel has been a disaster.
Biagini has imploded in Houston.
Interesting to see that Liriano has been solid in the pen for the Pirates.

I'd trade Giles for a center fielder who gets on bases and play top defense.
I don't see how they trade him if it doesn't make them better.
They can always offer a QO which would probably keep other teams from signing him.

scottt - Friday, September 27 2019 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#381932) #
Pillar has an 89 OPS+ and 0 DRS
It was time to move on.

scottt - Friday, September 27 2019 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#381933) #
Keon Wong was claimed by the Angels earlier this week.

It's hard to pass anyone through waivers right now because every team has someone on the 10IL who can be moved to the 60IL for the next 3 days.

Mike Green - Friday, September 27 2019 @ 09:02 AM EDT (#381934) #
Dan, when I look at splits for a veteran player, I don't look at slash lines for a year or two because of sample size issues.  So with Dyson, he's been a better hitter for his career against RHPs.  This is, of course, the usual thing for a LHH.  If you look at the detail of his splits vs RHP over his career, his BABIP the last 2 years jumps out at you (.190 and .255).  If you look at his career splits vs. LHP over his career, his BABIP over the last 2 years also jumps out at you (.324 and .441).  The difference in BABIP is almost surely look and can be projected to be comparable against both kinds of pitching.  So, the fangraphs depth charts project him at .241/.318/.340 and that, in my view, is a fair estimate of what he is likely to do in a platoon role in 2020.  When you combine that with terrific baserunning and good defence in centerfield, he's likely still a 1-1.5 WAR player in a platoon role.  Obviously, you wouldn't want to sign him for more than a year given his age.

Margot and Enciarte would be reasonable trade targets if their clubs were interested in moving them.  Who knows if they are.

bpoz - Friday, September 27 2019 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#381935) #
Our highly regarded young position players took steps forward this year. The injury bug was reasonably kind there. We probably lost 150 ABs or so for each player due to demotion for improvement and minor injuries.

The pitching prospects that I was counting on for growth got injured. Zeuch half season and Borucki full season lost to injury. SRF was healthy but had a poor season. I know this is cherry picking but in 7 of his 20 AAA games he threw 100+ pitches. 2 games were 4 IP and 4.2 IP. A few games 70+ pitches in 3 innings or less.For me I conclude that his arm was tired which also explains the loss of velocity.

We currently have a list of about 10 or so young pitchers that could start the year in the ML or AAA. That would include many AA pitchers, Murphy & Diaz that could start in AAA and later may see ML playing time.

These young pitchers will go up and down for improvement purposes. Injuries will always have an effect so depth is important.

Regarding Thornton and Waguespack they both stayed healthy and also exceeded my expectations. I admit to having low expectations for both and they are successes to the "stick to the wall" strategy.
dan gordon - Friday, September 27 2019 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#381951) #
Yes, Mike, that's an important point about the sample size for splits during a 2-year period. The luck factor certainly is there. BABIP isn't just due to luck of course, how hard the player is hitting the ball has a big influence on BABIP, as well as defensive shifting and others.

I went back four years and got the following splits for Dyson:
vs RHP .238/.315/.338/.653
vs LHP .259/.335/.310/.645

Nothing much to choose between the two. Interestingly, he has been in the big leagues for part or all of 10 seasons, and has NEVER hit a HR against a lefty, although he has only 444 plate appearances against them.
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